The new OECD project “Shrinking Smartly and Sustainably”, financially supported by the European Commission, aims at producing a framework and associated guidelines to manage demographic change at regional and local levels.

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SHRINKING SMARTLY AND
SUSTAINABLY
Kick-off event – February 14, 2023
Ana I. Moreno Monroy, Regional Inequalities and Demographic Change Programme Manager, OECD

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When communities become
smaller and older, how can
governments ensure the well-
being of all residents?
Maximising well-being at smaller scales
CHANGE IN DEMAND AND
COSTS OF BASIC SERVICES
UNUSED/UNSUITABLE
INFRASTRUCTURE AND
HOUSING
LESS PROXIMATE SERVICES
AND AMENITIES
SMALLER TAX BASES LESS SERVICE AND CARE
PROFESSIONALS
BROADER SERVICE
RATIONING
LOWER INVESTMENT
AND MAINTENANCE
LESS CONNECTIVITY
Shrinking

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MULTI-LEVEL GOVERNANCE
AND SERVICE DELIVERY
SPATIAL PLANNING (LAND-
USE, HOUSING, AND
ENVIRONMENT)
Adaptation requires coordinated action
URBAN POLICY FOR
SHRINKING
SHRINKING REQUIRES MULTI-
SECTORAL POLICY INTERVENTIONS
ADAPT HOUSING
ADAPT INFRASTRUCTURE
ADAPT LIVING ENVIRONMENT
ADAPT SERVICE PROVISION
POLICY INTERVENTIONS NEED TO
BE AT THE RIGHT SCALE
Regional scale for larger networks
and more specialised services
Functional local areas for basic
services provided locally
Centres vs. suburbs in towns and
small cities
Thematic Areas

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Project description and activities
4
Analytical pillar Policy pillar
Use internationally comparable data and
complementary sources for selected countries to
disentangle the drivers of demographic change and
produce indicators relevant for shrinking regions
Analyse shrinking adaptation plans and the
coherence of spatial planning frameworks for
shrinking, as well as the relationship between
demographic change and fiscal sustainability in
regions and local governments
Technical paper on demographic scenarios
Data and indicators on:
1) Drivers of population shrinking
2) Adaptation to a new population scale;
3) Subnational indicators relevant to depopulation
and shrinkage
3 peer-to-peer knowledge-exchange dialogues
and 3 country case studies on each of the
thematic areas
Working paper with policy framework
Compendium of policy good practices
Guidelines for the (multi-level) governance of
demographic change
1
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
MONTHS
Consultation group on population decline
Literature review + Data collection
Synthesis report

5. 
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Thank you!
https://www.oecd.org/regional