Shaping Tomorrow - Trend Alert - Coronavirus Outlook

Coronavirus
Outlook
26 March 2020
Athena @ ST
Shaping Tomorrow
A Future Prognosis
Shared under creative commons rules by Shaping Tomorrow
Strategic foresight in the time it takes you to get and drink a coffee
Last updated: 26 March 2020 - 3AM GMT

Purpose
Help everyone anticipate and plan for tomorrow
Without an impartial strategic context there is a risk that
planners, policymakers and capability developers would
assume a future that supports their existing assumptions and
bias
We do not attempt to predict the future, but challenge your
thinking about shaping tomorrow and offer you tools to
navigate successfully
For every opportunity there are risks and for every risk there
are opportunities - please think both ways here2
2Shared under creative commons rules by Shaping Tomorrow

Introduction
Read on to discover what our robot, Athena, has found on the
future of this topic and act accordingly for you, your family and
organization in the years ahead. Make notes on issues that could
affect you and them as you go
If you are new to foresight, we recommend you view this slide
presentation first to get the best out of this report
Speed read Athena’s high-level take outs on the left of each slide,
or delve deeper into her findings on the right
Analysis
For a more detailed explanation of the graphics used in this
presentation please click here. All outlooks based on the time
period 2020-2070 and what’s likely to be happening in 2025 at a
95% confidence level unless otherwise stated. Please contact us
for longer-term outlooks
Shaping Tomorrow’s editor comments are presented in italics.
Speaker notes are also provided below every page to assist you in
interpreting the slides3

Vantage Points
4
Slide
1. Front page
2. Purpose
3. Introduction
4. Slide index
5. Driving forces
6. Trends
7. Causes
8. Consequences
9. Solutions
10. System
11. Cloud
12. Geographies
13. Cities
14. Weak
15. Emerging
16. Maturing
17. Declining
18. Radar
19. Trend Waves
20. Pie Charts
21. Warnings
22. Bubbles
23. Inflections
24. Shocks
25. Influencers
26. Heat Map
27. Year on Year
28. Sentiment
29. Challenges
30. Constraints
31. Dilemmas
32. Outcries
33. Extremes
34. PEST
35. Strengths
36. Weaknesses
37. Opportunities
38. Threats
39. Alternative Futures
40. Complexity
41. CLA
42. Scenarios
43. Three Horizons
44. Top Issues
45. Questions
46. NA
47. Potential responses
48. Sources
49. Evidence
50. Athena
51. Keep up to date

Driving Forces
5
By the end of the year, the
simulation models that nearly 67% of
all people in the world will have been
infected by coronavirus at some
point.
Main factors that cause something to happen globally

Trends
6
Though one face of the current crisis
is likely to be short-lived-scientists
are predicting that the COVID-19
pandemic will peak by mid-year.
[Climate change, technological
advances, and unprecedented levels
of inequality mean that global
disruption could become a norm in
the coming decades.]
Directions
See the trends in which your interest is developing or changing

Causes
7
Past crises have been catalysts for
significant change and there is little
reason to think that COVID-19 will
not be of similar import.
[Past outbreaks and forward
projections suggest variants of
COVID-10 are here to stay in a
continuing world of international
travel, big cities and inequality so
this may be a new normal.]
Directions
Understand what's driving what

Consequences
8
The coronavirus epidemic is putting
up to 50 million jobs in the global
travel and tourism sector at risk,
with travel likely to slump by a
quarter this year, Asia being the
most affected continent.
Directions
Discover likely outcomes and effects

Solutions
9
Coronavirus presents the world with
an opportunity to experiment more
with remote work.
IBM plans to make three quick-start
guides available to help developers
create apps that address specific
COVID-19 areas, including crisis
communication during an
emergency; ways to improve
remote learning; and how to inspire
cooperative local communities.
Directions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic

Map
10
System
After illness, economic fundamentals
are most at risk, particularly in China
and the USA.
The United Nations (UN) has warned
that the coronavirus outbreak could
cost the global economy $1 trillion
this year alone.

Cloud
11
System
Growing opportunities and threats
revolve around these 4 topics:
payments, business, climate and
economics. The most trending topics
are cyber, payments and business in
the years 2021, 2023 and 2040
respectively.
I recommend you visit me at
shapingtomorrow.com and search on
these topics for my further in-depth
analysis of their likely future impact.

12
Top 10 countries experiencing change are Germany, USA, Italy, United
Kingdom, Russia, Australia, Switzerland, Canada, India and Argentina.Geographies

13
Top 10 cities facing change are Manchester, Dublin, Hamilton, Hong Kong,
Singapore, London, Tokyo, Glasgow, Rome and Pyongyang.Cities

Weak
14
All cities will be vulnerable to
disease outbreak and transmission.
If the ongoing spreading of the new
coronavirus COVID-19 cannot be
contained, especially in countries
with weaker public health systems
to stop it, global GDP growth for
2020 will not fall into a recession,
but it will be cut in two.
Cycles
Explore new discoveries, inventions and ideas

Emerging
15
A global epidemic far worse than
the outbreak is a real possibility and
could kill many millions if the world
does not become better prepared to
deal with the sudden emergence
and transmission of disease.
Cycles
Notice what’s becoming apparent or prominent

Maturing
16
Past and ongoing pandemic threats
from coronaviruses have prompted
a new urgency to develop a pan-
coronavirus vaccine as a global
countermeasure.
[But, there are over 40 known
variants of Covid-19 already and the
age variation of deaths is widening
as the virus mutates.]
Cycles
Contemplate future development, growth and completion

Declining
17
Global pork supplies will decline
further this year as coronavirus
delays the process of restocking the
Chinese pig herd.
Global shipments of smartphones
will decline 2% this year due to the
impact of the Covid-19 virus.
Cycles
Explore what’s deteriorating, failing or collapsing

Radar
18
Outlooks
By 2025 experts believe the focus on
health will increase in the top 5 sectors of
Real estate, Aerospace & defence,
Financial services, Information
Technology and Media & entertainment.

4 YEARS AGO NOW
Trend Waves
Four years ago the top 3 topics were healthcare, economics and
illness. The most trending topics were medicine, economics and
healthcare in the year 2020, 2050 and 2050 respectively. The
direction of travel of this topic was growing over the forecast
period.
Currently the top 5 topics are economics, consumption, change,
aerospace and illness. The most trending topics are cyber,
payments and business in the year 2021 , 2023 and 2040
respectively. The direction of travel of this topic is declining over
the forecast period due to some experts thinking the virus will
decline in the short-term. Others, however, disagree.

Pie Charts
20
Outlooks
The start year was 2012, and the average
intensity is medium with the end year
currently calculated as 2060. The tipping
point* is expected to occur in 2028.
The likelihood of a return to business as
usual is less than 50% suggesting
profound societal changes will result
from this predictable surprise.
* When 33% of people accept the change
as the new paradigm

Warnings
21
Life on Earth is at an ever-increasing
risk of being wiped out by a disaster
such as sudden nuclear war, a
genetically engineered virus, or
other dangers.
Among the 2019 World Health
Organization top 10 threats to
global health, six are related to
infectious diseases: vaccine
hesitancy, antimicrobial resistance,
another influenza pandemic, Ebola
and other high-threat pathogens,
dengue, and HIV.
Signals
Take heed of alerts, cautions and forewarning
DON’T SAY WE WEREN’T WARNED.
We first reported this virus way back in 2010 and regularly since July 2015 as a
predictable surprise: a known unknown to most. It is not a Black Swan; it was
foreseen!
The next outbreak? We’re not ready | Bill Gates - 3rd April 2015

Bubbles
22
The coronavirus pandemic will cause
a global recession in 2020 that will
rival the 2008 financial crisis.
Signals
Observe ballooning and disillusionment

Inflections
23
[No inflection points found.
We are actually at the inflection
point right now. The question is
what will life look like after the
potential control of Covid-19.
Contact us to regularly monitor, plan
and respond to life in these new
political, economic, social and
technological environments.]
Signals
Give thought to potential turning points
Coronavirus will bring about a
revolution in the way that we
live and work, but many of
the long-term shifts it ushers
in would likely have occurred
anyway, even if not quite this
quickly e.g. VR, staycations,
drones, masks.
Follow these changing trends
at Shaping Tomorrow and
never get blindsided again.

Shocks
24
While the policy response will
provide downside protection, the
underlying damage from both
COVID-19's impact and tighter
financial conditions will deliver a
material shock to the global
economy.
[And, likely reduce government’
ability to invest in climate change
mitigation etc.]
Signals
Eyeball potential surprises, wildcards, traumas

Influencers
25
Opinions
While economics, illness, healthcare and
reduced consumption dominate the
headlines it’s the likely policy decisions of
the most affected countries like China
and the USA that will determine the
course of coronavirus and how the future
will change in response.
[Watch their responses at
shapingtomorrow.com with your own
private monitoring system and respond
quickly as new trends, uncertainties and
surprises are reported.]

26
Key forces for sectoral change are coming from Financial services, Real estate, Information
Technology, Tourism & hospitality and Automotive, while countries leading change include
China, Germany, USA, UK and Italy.
Plenty of white space though for entrepreneurs and leaders to find new and novel solutions
to the pandemic. Look for instance at the opportunity for more scientific solutions.
Heatmap

27
Through 2020 - 2060 the top 4 sectors likely to be working on pandemic
solutions are Information Technology, Business, Intelligence, and Media &
entertainment.
Year on Year

28
From 2020 - 2060, the top 5 topics underpinning the future of this topic are
payments, business, climate, economics and cyber at a 95% confidence
level. The most trending topics are cyber, payments and business in the
year 2021, 2023 and 2040 respectively.
Sentiment

29
Improving health
conditions is one of the
two most intense sectors
right now with a pressing
need for coronavirus
solutions.
Challenges

Constraints
30
The coronavirus outbreak in China
will curb global oil demand growth
by at least a quarter this year
The Covid-19 outbreak occurring
within the fastest traffic growth
region will likely curb order activity
in 2020, especially in China.
Limits
Reflect on what is restricted, compelled or avoided

Dilemmas
31
MERS-CoV could be a much bigger
problem if the virus makes its way
to Africa's camel population.
Limits
Consider situations involving difficult choices

Outcries
32
On the back of weakening economic
growth everywhere, especially in
the US and in Europe, and trade
tensions with the US and China, and
political strife in Iran and elsewhere,
the coronavirus health crisis will
now be remembered for breaking
the camel's back in 2020.
[Publics may not tolerate lockdowns
and lack of work/money for long!]
Limits
Understand what's testing people's patience
JUST IN
Well worth a read:
https://www.esquire.com/uk/life/a31915611/coronavirus-timeline/
● We could see the demolition of the working class through the
impact of the coronavirus.
● We'll see quite a marked increase in the birth rate as a result of
coronavirus: When you get bored with the telly, there’s nothing
else to do.
● We have a habit of bouncing back: People so rapidly forget the
bad things and move on.
● Coronavirus will bring about a revolution in the way we live and
work, but many of the long-term shifts it ushers in would likely
have occurred anyway, even if not quite this quickly i.e. VR,
masks, staycations, working from home, drone deliveries,
virtual doctors .....

Extremes
33
The Covid-19 pandemic has
dramatically reduced flights
worldwide, flat-lining the industry,
and is expected to mean that 2020
aviation emissions are unusually low
- meaning airlines will have to stay
within a tighter limit than they had
expected.
[Public trust in traveling in confined
spaces with others could be severely
damaged beyond the length of the
current coronavirus outbreak.]
Limits
Investigate what’s deteriorating, failing or collapsing

PEST
Political:
country; GDP; border; crisis; election;
emergency
Economic:
demand; economy; GDP; growth; airline;
company
Social:
health; virus; pandemic; HIV; epidemic;
infection
Technological:
data; API; DNA; HIV; airline; artificial
intelligence
34
Describes a framework of
macro-environmental factors
used in the environmental
scanning component of
strategic management
Right now the dominant concern is the global economy but this
could change swiftly if governments fail to control the virus and
its effects on society at large.

Strengths
35
A global pandemic would affect
numerous classes of both life and non-
life insurance and could threaten the
financial strength of insurers and
reinsurers.
SWOT
Positive attributes that enhance performance

Weaknesses
36
The risk of a global pandemic is
increasing led by rapidly expanding
cases in the USA.
SWOT
Negative factors that detract from strengths

Opportunities
37
An Earth Observation-based forecasting
system will allow decision makers to
identify areas of high risk for disease
epidemics before an outbreak occurs.
SWOT
Factors that are likely to contribute to your success

Threats
38
A virus as deadly as the Spanish flu could
kill up to 81 million people, according to
a 2006 study: The World Bank estimates
that global economic damage could
approach $3 trillion.
SWOT
Factors that you have no control over

Alternative
Futures
Entrepreneurs, Leaders and Activists will
change existing paradigms in profound
ways, some businesses will collapse, and
myths and existing paradigms will be
exploded towards very different futures.
To remain agile and resilient in this
VUCA, world organizations need to
determine their path forward through
futures programs that give them an
entrepreneurial, social and leadership
edge.
39
Foresight Methods
Taking different viewpoints
Shared under creative commons rules by Shaping Tomorrow VUCA is an acronym used by the American Military. It stands for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and

Complexity
Obvious:
demand; growth; GDP; economy;
economic growth; airline
Complicated:
election; economy; Brent; agency; beef;
carbon
Complex:
ICT; biodiversity; chronic; connect;
credit; digital
Chaotic:
economy; GDP; demand; recession;
economist; growth
40
Lead facilitator
Dr Mike Jackson
Helps managers to identify how they
perceive situations and make sense of
their own and other people's behaviour

CLA
Litany:
GDP; demand; health; economy; virus;
growth
System:
economic growth; demand; virus;
economic; economy; growth
Worldview:
health; people; HIV; country; pandemic;
data
Myth:
health; pandemic; virus; economy;
epidemic; infection
41
Lead facilitator
Professor Sohail Inayatullah
Causal Layered Analysis identifies
four levels of causality to more
effectively shape transformative
futures

Discipline:
demand; GDP; growth; economy; virus;
airline
Grow:
demand; GDP; economy; growth;
economic growth; virus
Transform:
health; HIV; economy; airline; data;
pandemic
Collapse:
health; pandemic; economy; virus;
airline; epidemic
42
Scenarios
Lead facilitator
Alessandro Fergnani
Creates plausible alternative futures of
what can happen and encourages
development of a robust, agile response

Managerial:
demand; economy; growth; GDP;
country; virus
Leadership:
demand; GDP; economy; economic;
growth; 5G
Entrepreneurial:
demand; economy; data; HIV; health;
GDP
43
Three Horizons
Lead facilitator
Patricia Lustig
Encourages further and wider
debate about the facilitation of
transformative change from one
level to another

Growth
Economy
Demand
GDP
Health
ARE YOU PREPARED?
FOUR OUT OF FIVE OF THE TOP FIVE CORONAVIRUS ISSUES ARE ECONOMIC
Contact us to develop alternative futures that help you remain resilient and agile into the
future.
Our participative, digital methods can deliver robust results in hours rather than the months
and years of effort required by traditional consultancy
Summary viewpoints
Top Issues
Shared under creative commons rules by Shaping Tomorrow 44

Questions for you to
consider
Take at least a medium term, not a short-term view when considering these questions
45
Can our global health architecture and the various
institutions that we have had since the end of World War
II be reconfigured and reshaped to deal with the
pandemic threats that we face?
Are insurers equipped to withstand a severe global
pandemic?
If not WHO, CDC, the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research
and Development Authority, NIH, or FDA, whose job is it
to ensure that sufficient support is available and
roadblocks are removed so new diagnostics get
developed quickly during a rapidly expanding pandemic?
“People usually overestimate the change that will occur in the next
two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next
ten.” - Bill Gates

Potential Responses
Use the findings of this Trend Alert to determine and
rank your options and choose how you can respond
by examining your Options either on your own
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Sources
47
Athena used the top sources shown
here as the ones to create this
report and determine which
embedded forecasts are included in
this Trend Alert. She found 730
forecasts in seconds on 26 March
2020 to allow us to automatically
build and publish this report in less
than the time it takes to get and
drink a coffee.

Evidence
Search term (coronavirus OR covid* OR outbreak OR virus OR pandemic)
AND NOT (ASF OR Nipah OR Ebola OR Flu OR Zika OR Dengue). Use this
search term to explore Shaping Tomorrow’s extensive database for more
knowledge and wisdom and latest data and information on the topic.
LATEST FORECASTS
https:/www.shapingtomorrow.com/challenges/list/14/?challenge=1985

Athena
49
I do show duplicates to aid your
understanding of themes as well as
contradictory forecasts. I may also show
near-duplicates. You can speed read past
the duplicates and near-duplicates if you
wish, though the latter may show
additional information.
You can use the contradictory, and likely
uncertain forecasts she finds to imagine
different scenarios. The future is
unpredictable, but we can examine the
possibilities and choose our preferable
future from the choices I present.
I’m apolitical. I report forecasts from
different viewpoints however distasteful
that might be to our own values.
However, my news algorithm does not
allow me to show fake or hate news. But,
i can show you highlighted rumours or
controversies that may turn out to come
true.
Wearing rose-colored glasses is not
my purpose; reporting potential
futures is. So, I recommend you check
my veracity before responding to the
extracted forecasts.
Just like humans, I can be fallible. Do
recognize that you and your associates
are biased too. But whereas you tire,
make mistakes and only recognize
what interests you, I do not. I might
miss or misinterpret as you do, but
with far less frequency and I'll take
uncomfortable truths and alternative
ideas in my stride. But, please let us
know if you feel my bias can be
reduced.
We want to do our best for you. And,
as with any research, you should check
and triangulate my findings for
yourself.
Contact us if you would like some free training with these methods

Keep up-to-date
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They don’t bite and they don’t hide.
Feel free to contact them and you’ll see
what I mean. They would be delighted to
help you.
50
Repost this free report to your
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The Shaping Tomorrow Team

Shaping Tomorrow - Trend Alert - Coronavirus Outlook

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