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Key Publishing Trends 2016
1
Contents
2
3
4
5
6
9
8
7
The adblockalypse
Planet of the apps
Are you paying continuous partial attention?
Curation vs C...
1) The adblockalypse
Advertising is broken and we in
journalism and media must take
responsibility for reinventing
it—beca...
800% growth in ad blocking in 5 years
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015
21m
30m
39m
54m
121m
181m
Sour...
From the first ever banner ad….
To this…
"Like sand sharks cannibalizing each other in the womb,
ad startups know the only way out is to eat their rivals"...
Give people a reason not to block
Source: New York Times analysis; Pew Research Center and comScore
30.8
11.9 11.3 10.9
9....
Is membership the answer?
2) Planet of the apps
The end of fragmentation
and a return to scale
Rob Norman – Chief Digital Office
Group M
“
”
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
In three years’ time mobile spend will be second only to TV
Source: IAB 2015
The explosion in apps
80%of
time on
mobile spent
with apps
Source: A chart a day and Flurry analytics 2015
WeChat: the rise of the Super App
Facebook Messenger: inside Zuckerberg's app for everything
700 million active users
3) Are you paying
continuous
partial attention?
The generation that has been
tethered to devices serves as a
cautionary ex...
Is time spent time well spent?
21%
28%
10%
25%
7%
4%
6%
45%
10%
5%
22%
10%
5% 4%
Media time vs adspend
Source: AA, Barb, R...
Print still engages!
Media Engagement Index
Source: Totum Research: Canadians 18+; November 2013
0 50 100 150 200 250
Prin...
We’ve proven that context works
% uplift in ad perceptions, relevant vs non relevant editorial
environment on Guardian web...
4) Curation vs
Creation
There’s a Shiny New Trend in Social
Media: Actual Human Editors!
Recode Article
Viral news sites refocus on creation
It’s not difficult’, just photos of cats,
dogs and ‘silly little headlines scraped
fr...
The Shiny New Trend in Social Media: Actual Human Editors
Social theft?
5) New
business
models for news
The 4 key elements of a
new business model for
news: trust, attention,
technology, members...
A billion dollar business can be built by capturing less than
a minute of an average user’s daily attention
The rise and fall of venture-backed news readers
Instant articles and the Washington Post
Instant Articles Are Shared Three Times More Than
Regular Links
3.5x
more shares
2.5x
more likes
5.5x
more comments
Instan...
Google AMP and Apple News
Twitter moments
6) Minillennials
The idealism of Gen X is so
different from the cynicism
of millennials
Joy Howard, CMO Sonos
Children now spend
more time online
than watching TV
65+
50-64
35-49
25-34
18-24
12-17
+9%
+2%
-9%
-28%
-31%
-37%
Change i...
32%
24%
13%
14%
4% 1%
2%
8%
33%
20%
19%
14%
3% 1% 1%
8%
Teenagers love Instagram and Snapchat
Source: Pew Institute
Spring...
7) Podcasting
Podcasting in 2015 feels a
lot like blogging circa
2004: exciting, evolving,
and trouble for
incumbents
Niem...
Podcast consumption has exploded in recent years and will
keep growing steadily
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20...
Early successes are showing podcast publishers can
generate premium advertising rates
$18
$20
$25
$25
$40
$70
Pre-Roll Sta...
From GE, to Adobe to the IAB
8) The power of
visual language
Humans seem to be developing
digital brains with new circuits for
skimming through the tor...
Pinterest introduces visual search
Emojitracker: realtime emoji use on twitter
The Emoji Keyboard
A universal language could be useful!
Source: Erin Meyer
From: ”Getting to si, ja, oui, hai, and da,” December 2015
Saudi
...
Name that TV show….
Name that film…
Brands get in on the emoji act
9) VR
Project Syria
Project Soli: augmented reality
What does all this mean?
1. The adblockalypse No complete answers yet, but a challenge that impacts us all
2. Planet of th...
Guardian publishing trends 2016
Guardian publishing trends 2016
Guardian publishing trends 2016
Guardian publishing trends 2016
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Guardian publishing trends 2016

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What trends will shape the media, publishing and ad industry in 2016? The Guardian gives its perspective on subjects ranging from the adblockalypse to the rise of super apps, and from virtual reality to the power of emojis.

Published in: Data & Analytics
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Guardian publishing trends 2016

  1. 1. Key Publishing Trends 2016
  2. 2. 1 Contents 2 3 4 5 6 9 8 7 The adblockalypse Planet of the apps Are you paying continuous partial attention? Curation vs Creation New business models for news Minillennials Podcasting The power of visual language VR
  3. 3. 1) The adblockalypse Advertising is broken and we in journalism and media must take responsibility for reinventing it—because advertisers and their agencies will not and because our very survival depends upon it. “ ”Jeff Jarvis, 2015
  4. 4. 800% growth in ad blocking in 5 years Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 21m 30m 39m 54m 121m 181m Source: Pagefair and Adobe, 2015 Ad Blocking Report
  5. 5. From the first ever banner ad….
  6. 6. To this… "Like sand sharks cannibalizing each other in the womb, ad startups know the only way out is to eat their rivals" 2011 2012 2014 2015 100 350 947 1,876
  7. 7. Give people a reason not to block Source: New York Times analysis; Pew Research Center and comScore 30.8 11.9 11.3 10.9 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.8 8.6 7.9 7.7 7.2 6.7 6.6 6.3 6.1 6 5.8 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 8.1 7.0 5.0 4.4 3.4 6.5 2.0 8.1 5.3 10.4 3.7 6.5 5.8 6.1 3.6 5.9 3.8 3.2 6.5 2.0 4.0 6.3 2.0 3.6 4.7 6.8 Seconds to load editorial content Seconds to load advertising content USA Today had the smallest mobile website in the sample The New York Post, one of the slowest websites, contains many large photos, but fewer ads, so an ad blocker had less of an effect Sites in this range are quicker, but ad blockers still take out more than five seconds of loading time over a typical cell connection
  8. 8. Is membership the answer?
  9. 9. 2) Planet of the apps The end of fragmentation and a return to scale Rob Norman – Chief Digital Office Group M “ ”
  10. 10. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 In three years’ time mobile spend will be second only to TV Source: IAB 2015
  11. 11. The explosion in apps 80%of time on mobile spent with apps Source: A chart a day and Flurry analytics 2015
  12. 12. WeChat: the rise of the Super App
  13. 13. Facebook Messenger: inside Zuckerberg's app for everything 700 million active users
  14. 14. 3) Are you paying continuous partial attention? The generation that has been tethered to devices serves as a cautionary example to the next generation, which may decide this is not a satisfying way to live. Linda Stone The Art of Staying Focused in a Distracting World theatlantic.com
  15. 15. Is time spent time well spent? 21% 28% 10% 25% 7% 4% 6% 45% 10% 5% 22% 10% 5% 4% Media time vs adspend Source: AA, Barb, Rajar, ComScore, NRS, Jicreg Television OOH Radio Internet National Newspaper Regional Newspaper Magazine Media time share Advertising spend share
  16. 16. Print still engages! Media Engagement Index Source: Totum Research: Canadians 18+; November 2013 0 50 100 150 200 250 Printed Newspaper Television Newspaper Website Radio Magazine Internet Billboard Printed newspaper dominates as the most engaging media! Newspaper website also scores well above average and most other media too.
  17. 17. We’ve proven that context works % uplift in ad perceptions, relevant vs non relevant editorial environment on Guardian website +23% benefit +18% positive towards advertiser +11% Informed +11% Appealing
  18. 18. 4) Curation vs Creation There’s a Shiny New Trend in Social Media: Actual Human Editors! Recode Article
  19. 19. Viral news sites refocus on creation It’s not difficult’, just photos of cats, dogs and ‘silly little headlines scraped from other sites. Robert Thomson, CEO Newscorp June 2015 Upworthy, has become famous for so- called curiosity gap headlines that seek to spur the reader into clicking to scratch the itch it creates. This leads to truly awful headlines like “This Kid Just Died. What He Left Behind is Wondtacular. Wired Magazine
  20. 20. The Shiny New Trend in Social Media: Actual Human Editors
  21. 21. Social theft?
  22. 22. 5) New business models for news The 4 key elements of a new business model for news: trust, attention, technology, membership. Valerio Bassan, Medium
  23. 23. A billion dollar business can be built by capturing less than a minute of an average user’s daily attention
  24. 24. The rise and fall of venture-backed news readers
  25. 25. Instant articles and the Washington Post
  26. 26. Instant Articles Are Shared Three Times More Than Regular Links 3.5x more shares 2.5x more likes 5.5x more comments Instant Articles vs Regular Links, The New York Times Source: Newswhip Based on engagement for links posted on the main New York Times Facebook page, November 9-13
  27. 27. Google AMP and Apple News
  28. 28. Twitter moments
  29. 29. 6) Minillennials The idealism of Gen X is so different from the cynicism of millennials Joy Howard, CMO Sonos
  30. 30. Children now spend more time online than watching TV 65+ 50-64 35-49 25-34 18-24 12-17 +9% +2% -9% -28% -31% -37% Change in time spent watching traditional TV by age group 2010 to 2015 Source: achartaday
  31. 31. 32% 24% 13% 14% 4% 1% 2% 8% 33% 20% 19% 14% 3% 1% 1% 8% Teenagers love Instagram and Snapchat Source: Pew Institute Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Other % US Teenagers who rate social platform as their favourite
  32. 32. 7) Podcasting Podcasting in 2015 feels a lot like blogging circa 2004: exciting, evolving, and trouble for incumbents Niemen Lab article
  33. 33. Podcast consumption has exploded in recent years and will keep growing steadily 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 15 10 5 0 Activate Projections: Total Podcast Listening Time, U.S., 2008 – 2020E Billionsofhours (Change in measurement methodology) Source: Pew Research, Edison Research, Activate analysis
  34. 34. Early successes are showing podcast publishers can generate premium advertising rates $18 $20 $25 $25 $40 $70 Pre-Roll Standard Slate Podcasts (6.5M) Mid-roll Standard 99% Invisible (1.5M) Serial (73M Total) TWiT.tv Podcasting Monthly Downloads and CPM Rates Publisher data Industry average Source: Marketing Science, New York Magazine, Current, Ad Age, Activate Analysis
  35. 35. From GE, to Adobe to the IAB
  36. 36. 8) The power of visual language Humans seem to be developing digital brains with new circuits for skimming through the torrent of information online. Washington Post article
  37. 37. Pinterest introduces visual search
  38. 38. Emojitracker: realtime emoji use on twitter
  39. 39. The Emoji Keyboard
  40. 40. A universal language could be useful! Source: Erin Meyer From: ”Getting to si, ja, oui, hai, and da,” December 2015 Saudi Arabia Philippines India MexicoBrazil US RussiaIsrael Spain Italy France Netherlands Germany Denmark UK Sweden Korea Japan Confrontational Non- Confrontational Emotionally Expressive Emotionally Unexpressive
  41. 41. Name that TV show….
  42. 42. Name that film…
  43. 43. Brands get in on the emoji act
  44. 44. 9) VR
  45. 45. Project Syria
  46. 46. Project Soli: augmented reality
  47. 47. What does all this mean? 1. The adblockalypse No complete answers yet, but a challenge that impacts us all 2. Planet of the apps A new distribution channel and a route to more engaged audiences? 3. Continuous partial attention Premiums should be paid for moments of total absorption 4. Curation vs Creation Original quality content is the route to engagement. 5. New business models for news Destination vs distribution; open vs walled garden 6. Minillennials Go where they go, but create a brand relationship at the same time. 7. Podcasting Reminding us of the power of stories 8. The power of visual language What emotions and visuals do people associate with your brand? 9. VR The next tech revolution?

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