Shaping Tomorro - Global Outlook - A Future Prognosis

Global Outlook
30th January 2020
Dr Michael Jackson - Shaping Tomorrow
A Future Prognosis
don’t know where you’re going, any bus will take you there!” - George Harrison

Purpose
Help everyone anticipate and plan for tomorrow
Without an impartial strategic context there is a risk
that planners, policymakers and capability developers
would assume a future that supports their existing
assumptions and bias
We do not attempt to predict the future, but challenge
your thinking about the future and offer you tools to
navigate successfully
2 All Rights Reserved

Introduction
Read on to discover what our robot, Athena, has found on the
future of this topic and act accordingly for you, your family and
organization in the years ahead. Make notes on issues that could
effect you and them as you go
If you are new to foresight, we recommend you view this slide
presentation first to get the best out of this report
Speed read Athena’s high-level take outs on the left of each slide,
or delve deeper into her findings on the right
Speaker notes are also provided below every page to assist you in
interpreting the slides.
All forecasts involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Please
verify my findings if unsure
3 All Rights Reserved
Time to produce this presentation: 3 hours
Ask us to produce private topics of your choice in
less than a day

Vantage points
Slide
4
14. Decline
15. Warnings
16. Bubbles
17. Inflections
18. Shocks!
19. Constraints
20. Dilemmas
21. Outcries
22. Extremes
23. System
24. Cloud
25. Geographies
26. NA
27. Radar
28. Graph-It
29. Trend waves
30. Pie charts
31. Heat map
32. Year-on-Year
33. Sentiment
34. Influencers
35. Challenges
36. PEST
37. Alternatives
37. Complexity
38. CLA
39. Scenarios
40. Three horizons
41. SWOT
42. Top issues
43. Questions
44. Now it’s your turn
45. Potential responses
46. Sources
47. Evidence
48. Athena
49. Keep up to date
50. Take action
50. Contact us
51. Other services
52. Feedback
1. Front page
2. Purpose
3. Introduction
4. Slide index
5. Driving forces
6. Trends
7. Causes
8. Consequences
9. Solutions
10. Discoveries
11. Fringe
12. Emerging
13. Maturity

Driving
forces
All Rights Reserved 5
Up to 800 million global workers will
lose their jobs by 2030 and be replaced
by robotic automation
Geopolitical realignments, emerging
technologies, and demographic shifts
will all contribute to different
manifestations of ideologically and
politically motivated violence
FORECASTS

Trends
The effects of climate change
and overtourism on global
destinations will converge over
the course of the coming
decades
The population tidal wave
predicted to strike Africa and
Asia in the coming decades will
completely reshape the global
economy
The global IoT market will
explode from $2.9 trillion in 2014
to $8.9 trillion in 2020
6
FORECASTS
All Rights Reserved

Causes
Extreme weather events, cuts to
worker productivity, and other
effects of climate change could
cause major global economic
losses unless GHG emissions are
significantly curtailed in the next
few decades
The number one cause of
depression-already the largest
disability epidemic in the world
today - is going to be work-
related stress by 2030
FORECASTS

Consequences
Adapting to climate change risks
will cost the world between $140
and $300 billion per year by 2030
By 2050, AMR would decrease
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by
2-3.5% with a fall in livestock by
3% to 8% costing USD 100 Trillion
to the entire globe
FORECASTS

Global custody has yet to wake
up to the fact that the threat
facing it from The pace at
which it is moving is
unprecedented and 2018 will
see the first mainstream
applications of truly global
Blockchain solutions affecting
many food producers,
processors, importers and
retailers
Biotechnology will provide solutions to
disease, hunger, pollution and global
warming
WWF recently estimated that land use
and sustainable agriculture could
provide up to 30% of the solutions
needed by 2030 to tackle the global
climate crisis
Solutions
FORECASTS

retailers
From a global perspective, the push for
substantial new discoveries shows no
signs of slowing down, with another 35
high impact exploration wells expected
to be drilled this year, both onshore
and offshore
[A source of future protest?]
Discoveries
CYCLES

retailers
The threat of mega attacks launched
from infected connected devices is now
a reality that dramatically changes the
paradigm for mobile and fixed
operators whose core infrastructure is
susceptible to global attacks that are
large enough to significantly disrupt
subscriber quality of experience
Earth orbit will become the new
frontier for adventurous travellers by
2026
Fringe
CYCLES

retailers
A "chasm" could emerge because of the
deepening inequality in global
connectivity between starters, adopters
and front-runner countries
The world could see a major overhaul
of global tax rules by the end of 2020,
upending how multinational companies
have been taxed for decades
Emerging
CYCLES

retailers
By 2021, developing markets are
expected to constitute nearly half of all
non-cash payments across the globe,
surpassing mature markets for the first
time
Coworking has had a transformational
impact on office markets all over the
globe in 2018, and while some markets
are approaching maturity, on a global
level we expect to see continued
momentum
Maturity
CYCLES

retailers
The number of people in extreme
poverty is expected to continue to
decline - but all agree on the bad
headline: the world is not on track to
end extreme poverty by 2030
Barring colossal advancements in our
ability to suck carbon out of the
atmosphere-global coal, oil and gas use
will need to decline by 97, 87 and 74
percent by 2050, respectively
Decline
CYCLES

retailers
Shortage of fresh water may be the
primary global threat in the next
decade: Water wars to break out in the
near-future
The biggest threat to the future of
cybersecurity may be the skills gap
The urbanization of the human
population is at the risk of transmission
of many infectious agents
Warnings
SIGNALS

retailers
The global economy will confront
serious challenges in the months and
years ahead, and looming in the
background is a mountain of debt that
makes markets nervous-and that thus
increases the system's vulnerability to
destabilizing shocks
Three out of five factory-level artificial
intelligence initiatives in large global
companies will likely stall within the
next three years due to inadequate skill
sets
Bubbles
SIGNALS

SIGNALS
In the next 10 years, the digital
transformation initiatives will
radically alter manufacturing,
energy, agriculture,
transportation and other
industrial sectors of the
economy, which together,
account for nearly two-thirds
of the global gross domestic
product
Inflections

18
Shocks!
Potential Global Shocks?
Trade war | Oil supply and demand |
Military war | Terrorism | Protests |
Recession | Pandemic | Natural disaster |
Mass migration | Climate change | Water
and food shortages | Cyber security
In less than a decade, the world
could fall short of feeding every
person on the planet by 214
trillion calories per year, or about
28,000 calories per person
The World Bank predicts that
there will be 140 million climate
refugees by 2050; the UN thinks it
might be more like 200 million, or
even, in the worst-case scenario, a
billion
SIGNALS
All Rights Reserved

retailers
Following the pace taken, in 2 years,
there are going to be almost a billion of
paragraphs of new rules published by
global regulators
Constraints
LIMITS

retailers
Dilemmas
The plight of pollinators is one
example, known by many gardeners,
with 40 percent-particularly bees and
butterflies-risking global extinction
Governments may not anticipate the
impacts of artificial general
intelligence and have no strategies in
place as unemployment exploded in
the 2030s leaving the world of 2050 in
political turmoil
LIMITS

retailers
Campaign groups such as Extinction
Rebellion warn of 'unprecedented
global emergency', 'climate breakdown'
and 'mass extinction'
There are many variables, challenges
and geopolitical events that will affect
the world of business and economics in
2020: The United States election, a lack
of leadership as the US steps back on
the world stage, climate change, and
protests from Chile to Lebanon
Outcries
LIMITS

retailers
Report indicated that extreme weather
events were the most likely threat to
disrupt the global economy over the
next decade, representing a greater
danger than weapons of mass
destruction, cyber-attacks, or data
fraud and theft
Extremes
LIMITS

System
By embracing the circular
economy and sustainability,
humans
can mitigate disaster and
companies can make a
lot of money

Cloud
78 percent are implementing risk
assessments for scenarios in which
global temperature increases are
limited to 2 degrees Celsius by 2020,
up from 49 percent in 2018

Geographies
Countries at the forefront of change are India, Japan, France,
and Indonesia followed by the US, China, Canada, Australia and
Brazil. Europe is notably missing with the exception of France
while North America and Australasia power ahead

Radar
By 2025 the focus will increase
on cryptography, clean
technologies, science,
contactless, trade, media and the
IoT

Graph-It
By 2025, the same experts
expect major progress in
healthcare, quantum computing,
Industry 4.0 and the construction
industry

Trend waves
As consumer wealth increases, especially in Asia, retail, entertainment,
gaming and value for money will increasingly be to the fore.
Four years ago the topics underpinning the Trend Wave were wealth,
security, investment and property
Four years ago
Now

All Rights Reserved
30
Pie charts
From 2020 - 2070, the top 5 topics
underpinning the future of this topic
are economics, trade, business,
aerospace and construction at a 95%
confidence level. The most trending
topics are collaboration, wealth and
illness in the year 2022, 2024 and 2035
respectively
Four years ago the top 5 topics
underpinning the future of this topic
were aerospace, internet, income,
trade and investment
4 Years ago

Heatmap
Key driving forces for change are energy, the environment and government responses to climate change.
Major countries undergoing change are the USA and China, followed by India and the UK.

32
Year-on-
YearFocus on social care has increased to
its highest ever level by almost every
sector but focus now needs to
change into urgent effective actions
everywhere.
A greater focus on stakeholder
inspiration, engagement and
enablement by every organization
worldwide will be required.
Organizations must become part of
sophisticated ecosystems and stop
being islands to survive in the future

Sentiment
We can often think that all the negative press about current issues reflects how the world is and will be.
But, my summary sentiment chart shows this to be far from the case.
Public, pundit and expert opinions show a very hopeful and positive view of the future with climate
change and security the key concerns.
33

34
Influencers
The USA, China and UK are currently
the prime influencers of energy,
economics and trade with Donald
Trump by far the biggest world actor.
The GAFA (Google,
Amazon,Facebook and Apple) are the
key technology influencers to follow

35
Challenges
ADAS (Advanced driver-assistance
systems), AI and Food & Agriculture
are the largest, most impactful
Megatrends in the short-term that
are likely to remain so for the next
few decades.
Sadly, huge loss of biodiversity is out
of sight and mind for most but
another symptom of over-farming,
hunting and climate change along
with pollution.
Business models are changing slowly
as the chart suggests but could
accelerate rapidly as technology
advances at breakneck speed

PEST
Political
Geopolitics, digitalization, speed,
confidence
Economic
Climate change, consumption job losses
Social
Urbanization, AMR, Stress
Technological
Space, IoT, security, trust
PEST analysis as a viewpoint
PEST analysis describes a framework of macro-environmental
factors used in the environmental scanning component of
strategic management.

Alternative
Futures
The alternate futures methods presented
here suggest that most of the focus is
currently managerial, systemic, obvious and
growth led
However, Entrepreneurs, Leaders and
Activists will change existing paradigms in
profound ways, some businesses will
collapse, and myths and existing paradigms
will be exploded towards very different
futures. To remain agile and resilient in this
VUCA world organizations need to
determine their path forward through futures
programs that give them an entrepreneurial,
social and leadership edge All Rights Reserved 37
Foresight Methods - Donuts
VUCA is an acronym used by the American Military. It stands for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous.
Taking different
viewpoints

Complexity
Obvious
Truth, cybersecurity, VR, AR
Complicated
Digitalization, pollution, weather
Complex
IoT, satellites, forestry losses, new
platforms
Chaotic
Geopolitics, urbanization, climate change
Lead facilitator: Dr Mike Jackson
Complexity analysis as a viewpoint
Complexity: Four decision-making contexts that help managers to
identify how they perceive situations and make sense of their own
and other people's behaviour

CLA
Litany
Climate change, digitalization,
forestry losses
System
Talent shortages, sustainability
Worldview
Job losses, ageing populations, carbon
neutrality, end poverty
Myth
Food shortages, biodiversity loss, hydrogen
economy
Lead facilitator: Professor Sohail Inayatullah
CLA as a viewpoint
Causal Layered Analysis, or CLA for short, identifies four levels of
Causality. It seeks to create new futures by creating new
narratives and systems that support these stories and new
measurements that ensure the stories are grounded in empirical
reality

Scenarios
Discipline (BAU)
5G, falling birth rates, drones, renewable
energy
Growth
IoT, space, wealth, trade war, stress
Transform
Technology, manufacturing, climate
change
Collapse
Geopolitics, resource consumption,
countries left behind, job losses
Lead facilitator: Alessandro Fergnani
Scenario analysis as a viewpoint
Each scenario is intended to describe an equilibrium or a state in
which the system might exist for some length of time

Three horizons
Managerial
Space, stress, IoT,
Leadership
5G, flying vehicles, hydrogen economy,
disease
Entrepreneurial
VR and AR, climate change, renewables,
new technologies
Lead facilitator: Patricia Lustig
Three Horizons analysis as a
viewpoint
The Three Horizons method encourages further and
wider debate about the facilitation of transformative
change from one level to another.

SWOT
Strengths
Sustainable transformation, new
regulations
Weaknesses
Deep fakes, poverty, fast global
change, negative ecological and social
trends
Opportunities
New platforms, demographics, AI,
energy transition
Threats
Climate change, social inequality,
geopolitics, people displacement
Lead facilitator: Dr Mike McAllum
SWOT analysis as a viewpoint
SWOT stands for 'Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and
Threats'. This is a method of analysis of the environment and
the company's standing in it. Only the external environment is shown
here

Top Issues
Climate change, IoT, People
displacement, Space,
Geopolitics, Trust
ARE YOU PREPARED?
Contact us to develop alternative futures that help you remain resilient and agile into the
future.
Our participative, digital methods can deliver robust results in hours rather than the months
and years of effort required by traditional consultancy
Summary viewpoints

Questions for you to
consider
Can the world come together to tackle global
warming and globalisation?
Is environmental and social responsibility a
fad, or will it have long-lasting effects on the
global economy?
What can we expect from the next generation,
and the rest of the mobile world, in 2020?
In an increasingly digital world, what
industry would insist that its consumers first
physically come to its place of business to buy
its wares?
“People usually overestimate the change that will
occur in the next two years and underestimate the
change that will occur in the next ten.” - Bill Gates
Take a least a medium term, not a short-term view
when considering these questions
All Rights Reserved
44

Now it’s your turn!
You’ve read my analysis, what do you think?
Please click here to give us your quick view of what
should happen to this topic in the future.
[Registration required at Shaping Tomorrow]
We will publish the survey results to you personally
within two weeks.
Please do make your voice heard to our 20,000 plus
clients, partners and members and we will pass it on
All Rights Reserved
45

Potential responses
• Use the findings of this Trend Alert
to determine and rank your options and
choose how you can respond by examining
your Options either on your own publicly,
or collaboratively if our private client using
our extensive Tools assisted by our expert
facilitators
• We can produce equivalent reports to this
one on any topic for just US $450 (Plus VAT
in Europe). The associated evidence
spreadsheet is available for $995. Market
rates are usually at least twenty times this
price
• Or, you can subscribe to our service and
make these yourself at will and use the
forecasts in private, collaborative
workshops to develop your strategic
responses in hours rather than the weeks
and months of traditional foresight projects
using these methods
Contact us if you would like some free training with these methods, want to order reports or subscribe
Why buy a standard, soon out-of-date report at a higher price from elsewhere and
fish in the same pool as your rivals? When you can have customized, quality reports that
are real-time, low cost, fast to receive and ready made for you to present or respond too.

Sources
Athena used the top sources
shown here as the ones to
create this report and
determined which
embedded forecasts are
included in this Trend Alert.
She found 1,452 forecasts in
seconds on 30th January
2020 to allow us to publish
this report in less than 3
hours
You can too on a topic of
your choosing

Evidence
• Search term “world OR earth OR global
OR globe”. Use this search term to
explore Shaping Tomorrow’s extensive
database for more knowledge and
wisdom and latest data and information
on the topic.
• To view the latest forecasts, click here
Latest Forecasts

Athena
I do show duplicates to aid your
understanding of themes as well as
contradictory forecasts. I may also show
near-duplicates. You can speed read past
the duplicates and near-duplicates if you
wish, though the latter may show additional
information. You can use the contradictory,
and likely uncertain forecasts she finds to
imagine different scenarios. The future is
unpredictable, but we can examine the
possibilities and choose our preferable
future from the choices I present.
I’m apolitical. I report forecasts from
different viewpoints however distasteful
that might be to our own values.
However, my news algorithm does not allow
me to show fake or hate news. But, i can
show you highlighted rumours or
controversies that may turn out to come
true.
Wearing rose-colored glasses is not my
purpose; reporting potential futures is. So, I
recommend you check my veracity before
responding to the extracted forecasts.
Just like humans, I can be
fallible. Do recognize that you and
your associates are biased too.
But whereas you tire, make
mistakes and only recognize what
interests you, I do not. I might
miss or misinterpret as you do,
but with far less frequency and I'll
take uncomfortable truths and
alternative ideas in my stride. But,
please let us know if you feel my
bias can be reduced. We want to
do our best for you. And, as with
any research, you should check
and triangulate my findings for
yourself.
Contact us if you would like some free training with these
methods

Keep up to date You can stay up-to-date on this
topic or choose from our many
automatic reports to
determine what’s next in
seconds at
www.shapingtomorrow.com
You can also ask us to set-up
private topics for you (clients
only) to achieve the same thing
as this Trend Alert for your
associates or set up email
subscriptions (Registration
required) on your favorite
subjects
The Shaping Tomorrow team.
They don’t bite and don’t hide behind me.
Feel free to contact them and you’ll see
what I mean. They would be delighted to
help you All Rights Reserved 50
Do re-post this free report to
your associates and invite them
to join Shaping Tomorrow. You
will earn substantive
commission if they pay for our
other services

51
We hope you will now take
positive action on the
issues that affect you, your
family, your organization
and society at large for the
benefit of all
"If you don't know where
you're going, any road will
take you there."
George Harrison

Do contact us to discover our
other full-service strategic
foresight capabilities
Thanks for reading
Please give us your feedback
"Leaders keep their eyes on the
horizon, not just on the bottom
line."
Warren Bennis
52

Shaping Tomorro - Global Outlook - A Future Prognosis

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Similar to Shaping Tomorro - Global Outlook - A Future Prognosis

Similar to Shaping Tomorro - Global Outlook - A Future Prognosis (20)

More from Kerry Richardson

More from Kerry Richardson (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Shaping Tomorro - Global Outlook - A Future Prognosis