Freehold prices didn't increase from Jan to Feb for the first time since 1996 and sales are really low right now.

1. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Charts
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
Realtor
Chalmers House
by Blok 70
Feb
2018

2. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
Introduction
You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??
Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number
you’re seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow
will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is
the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREB’s broader GTA-wide aggregate figures.
I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos,
because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably
more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I
aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.

3. Detached $1,282K / Semi $986K / Row $941K
Feb vs. ‘17: $243K (16.9%)
Feb vs. '13: $434K (58%)
5 year CAGR: 9.4%
- First time price fell from Jan to Feb since 1996 (avg
change is +8.8%)
416 Average Sold Price
(dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Condo Apt $570K / Condo Townhouse $706K
Feb vs. ‘17: $60K (11.5%)
Feb vs. '13: $228K (64%)
5 year CAGR: 10.4%
- 5 year (CAGR) for condos has now overtaken houses
(houses were still higher as at January)
- 3rd highest Jan to Feb price incr. (+7.9%) on record
1,218
1,4391,429
1,455
1,373
1,268
1,177
1,088
1,215
1,1821,171
1,129
1,2041,197
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
421
444
428
452 456 459
438
459 462
474 484 476485
524
562
590
573
559
541 546 557 564 564
538543
584
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

4. 416 Residential Sales Volume
(number of sold transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Feb vs. '17: 31.2% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 29%)
YTD vs. '17: 26.2%
- Slow start to year likely due to headwinds from OSFI
stress test, mortgage rate increase, pull-fwd to 2017
- Rolling 12 month sales of 12,911 is lowest in available
TREB data (from Jan 1996)
Feb vs. '17: 30.1% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 7% )
YTD vs. '17: 26.3%
- YoY comparisons for first 4 months will look rough
- That said, still below 7 year average
- Rolling 12 month sales of 20,745 is lowest since Feb
2016
623 1054
1636 1680
1588
1185
786 811
956
1182 1169
680
513
725
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1254
1816
2565
2400
2271
1912
1479
1628
1518
1663
1783
1262
994
1270
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

5. 416 New Listings
(number of new MLS #s during the month – unfortunately includes re-listed properties)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Feb vs. '17: 1.2% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 13.1%)
YTD vs. '17: 5.2%
- Less freehold new listings than normal first two months
- Theory: sellers waiting until spring when they think
market will improve
Feb vs. '17: 11.3% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 23.4%)
YTD vs. '17: 11%
- Lot less condo new listings, even compared to really
low last year
973
1459
2485
3336
4253
2846
1760
1310
2671
2359 2257
892
1,082
1,476
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1886
2096
3188
3588
4138
3385
2693
2253
2826
2645 2573
1234
1673
1888
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

6. 416 Active Listings
(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Feb vs. '17: 115% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 14%)
YTD vs. '17: 123%
- Higher than last 4 Februarys, but lower than every
year from 1996 to 2013 (23-year avg = 2501)
- Houses were 36% of all 416 active listings last Feb – this
year were 47%
Feb vs. '17: 37.4% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 41%)
YTD vs. '17: 28.8%
- Active Listings above last year’s crazy-low levels, but
still almost 1400 less than 7 Yr Avg
- Ignoring last year, was lowest Feb since 2000
679
836
1228
2034
2941 2876
2574
2026
2715 2742 2687
1805
1580
1800
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1529 1443 1546
2148
2854
3074 3080
2682
2986 2907
2697
1899
1846 1982
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Condos
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

7. 416 Months Of Inventory
(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)
Feb vs. '17: 1.7 months (213%)
Feb vs. 7 Yr Avg: 0.9 months (57%)
- Highest Feb since 2009 (4.5)
- Varies a lot by housing type. Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb:
- Detached 2.6 / 3.2 / 3.4 / 2.8
- Semi 1.5 / 1.3 / 2.3 / 1.7
- Row 1.6 / 1.9 / 2.1 / 1.8
Feb vs. '17: 0.8 months (96%)
Feb vs. 7 Yr Avg: 1.0 months (40%)
- Average since Jan 1996 is 3.0 so very low historically, 23
of last 24 months have been below 2.00
- Record 12 months in row condos < houses
- 2nd lowest February ever
1.1
0.8 0.8
1.2
1.9
2.4
3.3
2.5
2.8
2.3 2.3
2.7
3.1
2.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.6
2.1
1.6
2.0
1.7
1.5 1.5
1.9
1.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

8. 416 Average Days On Market
(days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Feb vs. '17:  11.2 days (98%)
Feb vs. 7 Yr Avg:  6.0 days (36%)
- Highest Feb since 2009 (39)
- Still below historical Feb avg (since Jan ‘96) of 26 (and
all months’ avg of 28.0 and median of 26.6)
Feb vs. '17:  5.6 days (34%)
Feb vs. 7 Yr Avg:  5.8 days (21%)
- 2nd lowest Feb in last 23 years
- Well below historical Feb avg (since Jan ’96) of 37
17
11
9 8
10
14
21
24
20
18
21
25
31
23
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
22
17
12
10
12
15
20
23 22 22 21
23
27
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

9. 416 Sold Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥101% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
101% or more of asking Feb vs. '17:  41 pp
Month-over-month:  14 pp
- Lower than recent years – especially runaway 2017
101% or more of asking Feb vs. '17:  22 pp
Month-over-month:  10 pp
- Behind crazy 2017, but SOA still two to three times
more frequent than 2015 and 2016
59%
73%
81%
78%
59%
35%
22% 23%
26%
28% 29%
21%
19%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Houses
2015 2016 2017 2018
41%
54%
71%
74%
58%
36%
24%
18%
23% 21% 23% 22%22%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Condos
2015 2016 2017 2018

10. 416 Sold 20% Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥120% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
120% or more of asking Feb vs. '17:  34 pp
Month-over-month:  2 pp
- 20% SOA activity (and strategy of grossly underlisting)
has quieted right down after early last year
120% or more of asking Feb vs. '17:  5 pp
Month-over-month:  1 pp
- This practice is back to being rare in condos – early
last year stands out as a blip
18%
38%
45%
36%
17%
5% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 4%3%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Houses
2015 20% 2016 20% 2017 20% 2018 20%
3%
7%
20% 21%
9%
3%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%1% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Condos
2015 20% 2016 20% 2017 20% 2018 20%

11. 416 Annual Price Increases
(December vs. prior December average price, and current month 2018 compared to Dec 2017)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
20 year House performance: 17 years 3 years (Avg $46K).
20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $19K).
46
(11)
27 36
2
49
10 12
130
(51)
57
40
22 33
117
54
105
210
(35)
67
19 12 20 12 3
19
7 11
42
(34)
60
20
4
(6)
29
17 22
65 62
46
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
$000s
$ Increases
Houses Condos
17%
(3%)
9%
11%
1%
13%
2% 3%
29%
(9%)
11%
7%
3% 5%
17%
7%
12%
22%
(3%)
6%
12%
7%
11%
6%
2%
9%
3% 4%
17%
(12%)
23%
6%
1%
(2%)
9%
4% 6%
16%
13%
9%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
% Increases
Houses Condos

12. 416 20-year Price CAGRS
(Current month vs. same month 20 years ago)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
20 year House performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 5.93%; MoM change 76 pp
20 year Condo performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 5.53%; MoM change 80 pp
5.50%
7.64%
5.60%
5.93%
3.87%
3.66%
5.33% 5.53%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 2017 2018
416 Average Prices: 20 Year CAGR
Houses Condos
NEW

13. 416 Market Breakdown
1 year ago: Condos 58% / Houses 41%
5 years ago: Condos 50% / Houses 49%
10 years ago: Condos 47% / Houses 52%
20 years ago: Condos 35% / Houses 63%
As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new
condos are completed, transaction share should keep
shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter
home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.
While houses were only 38% of 2017 sales transactions,
they were 59% of dollar volume (35% and 64% in 2016).
Houses
38%
Condos
61%
Share of Transactions - last 12 months
Detached
71%
Semi
22%
Row
7%
Share of House Transactions - last 12 months
Apartment
90%
Townhouse
10%
Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months

14. Would you like to make better-informed real estate decisions? I believe knowledge is
power. So, I invest a lot of time researching and analyzing data and trends in the
Toronto real estate market. My Chartered Accountant (CPA, CA) side also compels
me to dig way deeper than most agents into the numbers on individual properties my
clients are interested in. If you would like to benefit from the same type of analysis and
insight that is sought by media outlets and institutional investors, reach out. Because
better information = better decisions.
Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
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