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Similar to March 2019: Let's talk about condos - Toronto real estate market charts
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March 2019: Let's talk about condos - Toronto real estate market charts
- 1. Toronto Real Estate Market Charts March 2019 Creative Commons license Scott Ingram CPA, CA, MBA Realtor Chalmers House by Blok 70
- 2. Toronto Real Estate Monthly Market Charts Introduction You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean?? Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number youβre seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow will add context and perspective to Torontoβs monthly real estate statistics. My focus is the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREBβs broader GTA-wide aggregate figures. I also separate Torontoβs two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos, because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends. οο indicator points to heating up (favours sellers), οο denotes cooling down (favours buyers)
- 3. Detached $1,267K / Semi $1,021K / Row $942K Mar vs. '18: ο $22K (1.8%) Mar vs. '14: ο $358K (43%) 5 year CAGR: ο 7.5% - Negative YoY in 3 of last 4 months - Detached -2.1%, Semi -1.3%, Row +2.6% 416 Average Sold Price (dollar volume Γ· number of transactions in the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Condo Apt $604K / Condo Townhouse $650K Mar vs. '18: ο $13K (2.2%) Mar vs. '14: ο $221K (57%) 5 year CAGR: ο 9.4% - Condos havenβt had negative YoY since Feb 2015 (49 straight months) 1,2051,1981,204 1,245 1,305 1,2451,226 1,146 1,2251,2121,226 1,071 1,118 1,220 1,182 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 Avg Sold Price - Houses 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 544 584 597 610 608 613 591 590 623 609 603 602 601 618 610 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 Avg Price - Condos (Apt & Town) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
- 4. 416 Residential Sales Volume (number of sold transactions in the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Mar vs. '18: ο 3.6% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: ο 27%) YTD vs. '18: ο 4% - 4th month in a row thatβs lowest since have monthly data in 1996 - Is 36% lower than 24 year Mar average Mar vs. '18: ο 11.1% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: ο 14% ) YTD vs. '18: ο 9% - 21 of last 23 months were lower than previous year - Lowest Mar sales since Mar 2014 (same story for Feb) - Rolling 12 month sales down 5th straight month. Now at below 18,000 for first time since Nov 2014. 510 720 1016 1186 1097 1252 940 855 985 1306 982 502 482 693 979 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sales - Houses (Det & Semi & Row) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg 989 1267 1745 1735 1944 1808 1605 1555 1454 1679 1553 955 927 1,170 1,552 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
- 5. 416 Active Listings (snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month) Mar vs. '18: ο 6.2% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: ο 16%) YTD vs. '18: ο 2% - Within recent seasonal ranges, though at higher end and 15% above 7 Yr Avg. Mar vs. '18: ο 16.7% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: ο 30%) YTD vs. '18: ο 10% - Higher than last 2 years, but lower than any other Jan after 2002 - Active Listings 973 less than 7 Yr Avg 1580 1800 1995 2327 2835 2758 2506 2119 2874 2780 2434 1537 1592 1792 2118 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Active Listings - Houses 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg 1846 1982 2080 2425 2923 2946 2934 2648 2909 2846 2486 1710 1960 2114 2427 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Active Listings - Condos 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
- 6. 416 Months Of Inventory (active listings at month end Γ· sales for month) Mar vs. '18: ο 0.2 months (10%) Mar vs. 7 Yr Avg: ο 0.7 months (50%) - Highest Feb since 2009 (4.5) - Median and average for last 24 years is 2.2 - Underlying w/ prior 2 months: Detached 3.2 (3.9, 3.8), Semi 1.1 (1.9, 1.3), Row weirdly up to 2.0 (1.7, 1.9) Mar vs. '18: ο 0.4 months (31%) Mar vs. 7 Yr Avg: ο 0.5 months (-24%) - Below 2.000 34 of last 36 months - Record 24 months in row condos < houses. In 254 months before March 2017, this only happened 19 times in total. 3.1 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.2 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.3 2.6 2.2 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 MOI - Houses (Det & Semi & Row) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.6 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 MOI - Condos (Apt & Town) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
- 7. 416 Average Days On Market (days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Mar vs. '18: ο 1.6 days (10%) Mar vs. 7 Yr Avg: ο 3.3 days (23%) - Following seasonal patterns but at high end of range - First month lower than prior year since September Mar vs. '18: ο 2.2 days (13%) Mar vs. 7 Yr Avg: ο 3.5 days (-15%) - Diverged lower from averages in spring 2016 and has stayed low since - Median and avg for last 24 years is 36 so still in historically low period 31 23 16 16 15 17 22 23 19 18 21 27 32 22 18 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 DOM - Houses (Det & Semi & Row) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg 27 22 17 16 17 17 20 23 23 21 22 26 27 22 19 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 DOM - Condos (Apt & Town) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
- 8. 416 New Listings (number of new MLS #s during the month β unfortunately includes re-listed properties) century21.ca/scott.ingram Mar vs. '18: ο 2.3% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: ο 11%) YTD vs. '18: ο 2% - Last year saw higher new listings in Nov and Dec to try to beat the Jan 1 stress test implementation so Jan/Feb 2018 were lower than normal - terminations and re-listings distort this stat Mar vs. '18: ο 3.0% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: ο 18%) YTD vs. '18: ο 5% - Only 3rd time in last 9 years was less new listings in Feb than in Jan - Touch higher than last year, but that was very low historically 1074 1458 1895 2307 2885 2336 1816 1423 2712 2482 1672 5141,216 1,376 1,938 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 New Listings - Houses 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg 1,674 1,886 2,485 2,867 3,377 2,855 2,671 2,298 2,707 2,777 2,211 901 1913 1905 2559 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 New Listings - Condos (Apt & Town) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
- 9. 416 Sold Over Asking (properties that sold at β₯101% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales) century21.ca/scott.ingram 101% or more of asking Mar vs. '18: ο 1 pp Month-over-month: ο 2 pp - 9th month in a row higher than prior year - Full year numbers: 2015 47%, 2016 60%, 2017 49%, 2018 34% 101% or more of asking Mar vs. '18: ο 7 pp Month-over-month: ο 3 pp - 7 pp difference from prior year is largest divergence since June - Days of SOA for a condo being just for special properties (11% for all 2015 sales) seem to be gone (27% for all 2018 sales) 73% 81% 78% 19% 32% 37% 41% 40% 35% 27% 25% 35% 37% 31% 23% 26% 34% 36% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sold Over Asking - Houses 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15-'19 Avg 71% 74% 22% 31% 34% 34% 32% 29% 25% 21% 24% 24% 22% 16% 21% 24% 27% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sold Over Asking - Condos 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15-'19 Avg
- 10. 416 Sold 20% Over Asking (properties that sold at β₯120% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales) century21.ca/scott.ingram 120% or more of asking Mar vs. '18: ο 1 pp Month-over-month: ο ο 0 pp - YoY increases in 8 of last 9 months - 20% SOA activity (and strategy of grossly underlisting) has moderated, with 2016 and the first bit of 2017 looking to be the outlier period 120% or more of asking Mar vs. '18: ο 2 pp Month-over-month: ο ο 0 pp - This is pretty dead now. Hasnβt reached 3.0% since June of 2017 when it was coming down off crazy time blip 45% 3% 5% 7% 9% 9% 6% 4% 3% 7% 8% 6% 5% 6% 8% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Houses 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20% 21% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%1% 1% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Condos 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
- 11. 416 Detached/Condo price ratio (average price for detached divided by average price of condo apartment) century21.ca/scott.ingram Current ratio: 2.10 Month-over-month: ο 0.02 - Dec and Jan was first time under 2.00 since Aug 2011 - Average since Jan 1996 = 2.13 - Median since Jan 1996 = 2.05 - Max = 3.06, Min = 1.72 3.06 2.10 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Ratio of Average Prices: 416 Detached/416 Condo Apt Current dollar gap: $664K Prior month dollar gap: $684K (ο $20K) Prior year dollar gap: $704K (ο $41K) 2 years prior dollar gap: $1,010K (ο $347K) NEW
- 12. 416 20-year Price CAGR (Compound annual growth rate, current month vs. same month 20 years ago) 20 year House performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.95%; MoM change ο 24 bps 20 year Condo performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.88%; MoM change ο 8 bps 7.07% 8.76% 7.40% 7.01% 6.95% 5.89% 5.74% 6.54% 7.09% 7.25% 6.88% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2016 2017 2018 2019 416 Average Prices: 20 Year CAGR Houses Condos
- 13. 416 10-year Price CAGR (Compound annual growth rate, current month vs. same month 10 years ago) 10 year House performance: 10 year CAGR (as at current month) is 9.23%; MoM change ο 10 bps 10 year Condo performance: 10 year CAGR (as at current month) is 8.12%; MoM change ο 41 bps 7.94% 9.57% 10.93% 6.89% 8.47% 9.23% 5.20% 6.09% 8.00% 6.74% 8.66% 8.12% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2016 2017 2018 2019 416 Average Prices: 10 Year CAGR Houses Condos
- 14. 416 5-year Price CAGR (Compound annual growth rate, current month vs. same month 5 years ago) 5 year House performance: 5 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.47%; MoM change ο 48 bps 5 year Condo performance: 5 year CAGR (as at current month) is 9.43%; MoM change ο 61 bps 9.81% 12.16% 13.90% 10.98% 6.12% 7.47% 4.97% 3.75% 7.18% 10.42% 9.68% 11.26% 9.43% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2016 2017 2018 2019 416 Average Prices: 5 Year CAGR Houses Condos
- 15. 416 Market Breakdown 1 year ago: Condos 61% / Houses 38% 5 years ago: Condos 51% / Houses 48% 10 years ago: Condos 49% / Houses 50% 15 years ago: Condos 43% / Houses 55% 20 years ago: Condos 39% / Houses 59% As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new condos are completed, transaction share should keep shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a βstarter homeβ and not held onto as long on average as houses. While houses were only 38% of 2018 sales transactions, they were 55% of dollar volume (38% and 59% in 2017, 35% and 64% in 2016). Houses 38% Condos 61% Share of Transactions - last 12 months Detached 69% Semi 23% Row 8% Share of House Transactions - last 12 months Apartment 90% Townhouse 10% Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months
- 16. Would you like to make better-informed real estate decisions? I believe knowledge is power. So, I invest a lot of time researching and analyzing data and trends in the Toronto real estate market. My Chartered Accountant (CPA, CA) side also compels me to dig way deeper than most agents into the numbers on individual properties my clients are interested in. If you would like to benefit from the same type of analysis and insight that is sought by media outlets and institutional investors, reach out. Because better information = better decisions. Your home is the single largest investment you'll make β trust it with an accountant. @areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram Click for more fresh statistics and insight on Toronto real estate: