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Toronto HPI - December 2018

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Latest MLS® Home Price Index statistics for Toronto real estate. View trends with composite, SF detached, SF attached, and apartment charts.

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Toronto HPI - December 2018

  1. 1. Toronto MLS® Home Price Index Creative Commons license Scott Ingram CPA, CA, MBA REALTOR® Witches’ House by André Carrotflower Dec 2018
  2. 2. Toronto Real Estate Introduction Average prices hide a lot of information and are subject to volatility. What if a higher ratio of condos sold last month? Average prices can change if no underlaying prices changes at all changed but just the mix changed. If a few $10 million homes sold last month that would skew the average as well. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was created to be a more apples-to-apples look at changes in prices. Like the CPI features a basket of goods that remains constant, the HPI uses “benchmark” homes that feature a basket of attributes that remain constant. Then it tracks the prices of just those homes over time, so the effects of mix changes are minimized. Here’s an introduction to the HPI if you’d like a bit more background information.
  3. 3. Comparison of YoY price increases century21.ca/scott.ingram You’ll notice the black line (416 average price) is more volatile than the HPI. It has reached lower lows (including a couple of negative dips) and higher highs than the orange HPI composite line. The average is more susceptible to fluctuations in mix. For example, March 2017 sales were 49% detached, while Sept 2017 was down to 26% detached – lower than the 31% in Sept 2016. 17.6% 27.7% 11.7% 1.0% 6.4% 28.4% 4.2% -8.9% 3.0% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 416 housing – YoY price increases HPI Composite 416 Average Price
  4. 4. 416 HPI - Composite (MLS® Home Price Index: Composite uses fixed weighting of all underlying benchmark homes, including freeholds and condos) century21.ca/scott.ingram Dec vs. ‘17: $51K (6.4%) Dec vs. ‘13: $312K (59%) 5 year avg. annual growth: 9.7% - All months > 2017, driven by condo apartments - YoY ranged from +$9K (May) to +$74K (Jan) - 5-year ranged from $297 (Jan) to $323 (Oct) NB: The percentage numbers above are official and may not match percentage change calculated from the numbers at left. Dollars at left are from static reports at time of issue and some percentages at right are be based off restated prior year numbers (when adjustments to benchmark homes or composite weighting are made). 617 621 634 647 666 676 682 685 691 706 714 720720 737 779 817 830 830 808 790 788 790 791 794 794 808 818 831 840 840 839 838 842 846 845 845 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 HPI Benchmark - Composite 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 18.9% 19.9% 24.1% 27.7% 26.1% 24.2% 20.1% 16.7% 15.3% 13.3% 12.3%11.7% 10.3%9.5% 4.8% 1.6% 1.0% 1.3% 3.9% 6.1% 6.7% 7.0% 6.7% 6.4% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - Composite 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
  5. 5. 416 HPI Composite vs. Components (MLS® Home Price Index: Composite uses fixed weighting of all underlying benchmark homes, including freeholds and condos) century21.ca/scott.ingram As you would expect, the HPI Composite sits in between its component benchmarks. Notably, this is the first time since the launch in 2012 that apartments are above lowrise (and have been since May 2017). 11.7% 6.4% 1.8% 1.1% 4.3% 3.9% 13.4% 6.8% 32.2% 23.3% 10.2% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 416 housing – YoY HPI benchmark price increases HPI Composite SF Detached SF Attached Townhouse Apartment
  6. 6. 416 HPI – Single Family Detached (MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value of that basket of attributes over time) Dec vs. ‘17: $12K (1.1%) Dec vs. '13: $375K (52%) 5 year avg. annual growth: 8.7% • Has been flat for 17 months ($1.1M +/- $25K) Most expensive 416 housing type. • Spent 6 months in negative YoY territory (only time in the 7 years on this chart). • Avg month in last 7 years has been +8.4% 876 878 898 924 961 982 989 991 1,000 1,020 1,032 1,039 1,076 1,106 1,172 1,2261,229 1,205 1,146 1,1001,0941,0881,0881,085 1,0811,0901,1011,1101,1241,1191,1131,1011,1051,1091,1111,097 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Detached 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 11.3%10.5%11.1% 12.3% 15.3% 17.1%17.2%17.3%17.3% 19.2%20.0%20.2% 21.7% 23.3% 27.7% 29.7% 24.8% 19.8% 13.1% 8.2% 6.6% 3.9% 2.9% 1.8% 0.4% -1.5% -6.2% -9.6% -8.6% -7.1% -2.9% 0.0% 1.0% 1.9% 2.1% 1.1% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Detached 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
  7. 7. 416 HPI – Single Family Attached (MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value of that basket of attributes over time) century21.ca/scott.ingram Dec vs. '17: $33K (3.9%) Dec vs. '13: $305K (53%) 5 year avg. annual growth: 8.9% • Steady at $880-890K range for 9 months now SF Attached includes freehold semi-detached and rowhouses. • SF Detached (6 mos.) and Attached (4 mos.) were only two types to spend time in negative YoY • Avg month in last 7 years has been +8.3% 680 689 702 718 745 760 764 762 762 779 791 799 820 834 878 920 928 919 879 850 845 844 850 848 842 854 864 878 891 887 882 872 879 889 889 882 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Attached 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 18.4%18.6% 22.5% 25.1% 22.1% 18.6% 12.9% 9.3% 8.7% 6.0% 5.7% 4.3% 2.7% 2.4% -1.6% -2.9% -4.0%-3.5% 0.3% 2.6% 4.0% 5.3% 4.5% 3.9% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Attached 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
  8. 8. 416 HPI – Townhouse (MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value of that basket of attributes over time) Dec vs. '17: $33K (5.4%) Dec vs. '13: $248K (64%) 5 year avg. annual growth: 10.4% • Remained above 2017 levels all year long Townhouse includes condo townhouses. “Owners typically pay co-ownership fees for maintenance and enjoy exclusive access to a part of the lot” • Lowest growth figures since 2013 • Avg month in last 7 years has been +9.3% 455 453 465 474 490 494 501 509 515 524 531 534543 543 568 602 628 631 633 624 609 605 599 601 605 607 607 621 632 634 635 629 630 631 630 634 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 HPI Benchmark - Townhouse 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20.7% 18.6% 21.3% 26.1% 27.1%27.0%26.5% 22.9% 18.0% 15.5% 13.5%13.4%12.7%13.1% 6.7% 10.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 2.1% 4.5% 5.6% 6.5% 6.8% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - Townhouse 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
  9. 9. 416 HPI – Apartment (MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value of that basket of attributes over time) Dec vs. '17: $54K (10.3%) Dec vs. '13: $223K (70%) 5 year avg. annual growth: 10.3% • Biggest 2 year gainer at +$144K (townhouse $100K, SFA $83K, SFD $59K) • Shortest (2 mos.) & smallest (-$7K) 2017 peak declines Apartment includes condo apartments • 26 of last 27 months above 10% is worrisome (don’t think it can be sustained) • Avg month in last 7 years has been +8.7% 346 349 355 359 364 366 371 375 380 388 392 397405 417 441 464 478 485 481 478 480 485 486 491493 505 514 523 527 529 530 534 536 538 537 541 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 HPI Benchmark - Apartment 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 18.0% 19.4% 24.0% 29.2% 31.0% 32.2% 29.4% 27.4% 26.0% 24.6% 23.5%23.3% 21.5%20.9% 15.9% 14.1% 10.1% 9.1% 10.2% 11.6%11.5%10.9%10.3%10.2% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - Apartment 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
  10. 10. @areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram Click for more fresh statistics and insight on Toronto real estate: Would you like to make better-informed real estate decisions? I believe knowledge is power. So, I invest a lot of time researching and analyzing data and trends in the Toronto real estate market. My Chartered Accountant (CPA, CA) side also compels me to dig way deeper than most agents into the numbers on individual properties my clients are interested in. If you would like to benefit from the same type of analysis and insight that is sought by media outlets and institutional investors, reach out. Better information = better decisions. Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.

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