Lecture by Richard Giragosian, Regional Studies Center, USA/Armenia at the Intensive Security Studies Course "Security in the Eastern European Neighbourhood. Theories and Practices" on 4-5 April, 2018 at the Hennadii Udovenko Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

1. Security Studies: Introduction to
the Model of Western Analysis
Hennadii Udovenko Diplomatic Academy
Richard Giragosian
Director, Regional Studies Center (RSC)
Kyiv
4 April 2018

2. 2
Introduction
Why a Model of Western Analysis?
clearly, because the Western analytical model was so
wrong for Ukraine:
- it misapplied the wrong “cost-benefit” analysis,
assuming that Putin would stop at seizing Crimea;
- it failed to recognize the broader Russian pattern of
“test & response,” whereby Putin was testing the
Western response and, at each stage, found it weak,
divided and distracted, hence, kept pushing forward;
- as Ukraine now stands as the primary test of
Western commitment & resolve, understanding the
“lessons learned” is now imperative.

3. 3
Structure
I The Process of Analysis
“Collecting the Dots”
“Connecting the Dots”
II. The Tools for Analysis & Knowledge
Crafting a Taxonomy
Creating A “Knowledgebase”
III. The Product of the Analysis
Producing a Comprehensive Briefing

4. 4
“Connecting the Dots”
• We live in a sea of “dots” of information (facts,
events, relationships, etc), but need to judge
what are reliable vs. disinformation;
• We try to “connect the dots” to best interpret
and understand the world, but need to factor
for our own bias or selectivity;
• But it is first necessary to “collect the dots” in
order to “connect the dots.”

5. 5
The Process of
“Collecting the Dots”
• “Collecting the Dots” is the process of seeking and
grouping the scattered bits of information into some
proximity to each other to enable pattern
recognition, but only after filtering for reliability;
• In a perfect world, the dots are neatly in place and
easy to find (low-hanging fruit) & trustworthy;
• In reality, the dots are almost never arranged in an
orderly way, and are neither easily found nor
inherently reliable.

6. 6
Challenges to
Collecting the Dots
• There are five main challenges to collecting the dots:
– Knowledge is time-sensitive (a short shelf-life);
– Information must be current (a good brief must
include the latest developments) & reliable;
– Stored information must be refreshed and updated
continuously (the rapidity of global change);
– There is, and always will be, some new phenomena
(a case-study approach fails to factor for new trends
or unexpected behavior, such as “Black Swans”);
– Plan for the “unpredictable” and unexpected.

7. 7
The Definition of
“Connecting the Dots”
• “Connecting the Dots” is the process of weaving
together a vast amount of disconnected pieces of
information to reveal a broader, coherent pattern;
• But the real challenge lies at the stage in between
gathering the raw intelligence and recognizing the
patterns that emerge;

8. 8
The Process of
Connecting the Dots
• The process of connecting the dots:
– Data recognition: which facts are important? Which
facts are reliable?
– Data gathering: where to go & how to collect the
important facts?
– Data sorting: how to organize the facts?
– Data analysis: what trends can be revealed?

9. 9
The Tools for Knowledge:
Creating A Knowledgebase
A knowledgebase is a comprehensive set of data identified to
hold an inherent relevance for the aim of the analytical
briefing;
For a briefing, a knowledgebase represents the storehouse of
information and pertinent data necessary for a mature,
systemic and comprehensive analysis;
The knowledge base is also the sum of the many parts of a
“system of systems” approach.

10. 10
Media
Culture
??
? ?
“System of
Systems”
Sample
The
Knowledgebase
Economic
System
Technology
Physical
Environment
Political
System
National
Security

11. 11
Penetrating Foreign
“Thoughtworlds”
• It is crucial to leverage the analytical tools of a
Knowledgebase and “system of systems” to
penetrate foreign “thoughtworlds”
• A “thoughtworld” is a summary of the
complete mental landscape (and motivations)
of the target (the target may be a country, a
region, a people, or a terrorist group, etc.)
• This is an opportunity to form and apply the
most correct cost/benefit analysis.

12. For more information, please contact:
Richard Giragosian
Director
Regional Studies Center (RSC)
Yerevan, Armenia
Director@regional-studies.org