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Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
PURCHASING
POWER
RISK INTEREST RATE
RISK
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
RISK
DEFAULT RISK
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Example of Default risk
Assume Tony wants his savings in bank fixed deposits to
get invested in some corporate bonds as it can provide
higher returns. However, he is aware that bonds include
counterparty default risks or credit risks, i.e., the bond
issuer will get defaulted, and Tony is not going to
receive any of the promised cash flows.
So Tony decides to price these risks in order to get
reimbursed for the extra risk he is going to be exposed
to. He finds the two basic measures of default/credit
risks are:-
❖ Credit Risk Scores that range between 300 and 850
❖ Bond credit Ratings agencies like Moody’s, fitch etc.
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Assessing Default Risk
1. Credit Ratings
One can access this risk by the ratings given by
the credit rating agencies.
2. Past performance and quarterly results
It can be assessed by the past performance of the
company like if a company has defaulted in
repayment of debt in the past, the default risk is to
be accessed as high, or if there are poor quarterly
results published, the chances of loss and risk are
high.
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
3. Market position and Goodwill
If the company or borrower has a higher reputation in the market,
that means the company or borrower has excellent goodwill. So, one
can trust the borrower and invest or lend the money based on
reputation in the market on the faith that the borrower will overcome
the unfavourable situation.
4. Type of Borrower
It can be assessed from borrower to borrower also. If the borrower
is a Government company, the chances of loss become low. Hence,
the risk will below. Whereas, if the borrower is the newly formed
private company, the chances of risk are more; therefore, the risk is to
be assessed as high.
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Foreign Exchange Risk
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
❖ The risk of an investment’s value changing due to
changes in currency exchange rates.
❖ The risk that an investors will have to close out a long
or short position in a foreign currency at a loss due
to an adverse movement in exchange rates. Also
known as “currency risk” or “exchange-rate risk”.
❖ This risk usually affects businesses that export and/or
import.
❖ But also affect investors making international
investments.
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Example of foreign exchange risk
An American liquor company signs a contract to buy 100 cases of
wine from a french retailer for €50 per case, or €5,000 total, with
payment due at the time of delivery. The American company
agrees to this contract at a time when the Euro and the US Dollar
are of equal value, so €1=$1. Thus, American company expects
that when they accept delivery of the wine, they will be obligated
to pay the agreed upon amount of €5000, which at the time of the
sale was $5000.
However, it will take a few months for delivery of the wine. In the
meantime, due to unforeseen circumstances, the value of the US
Dollar depreciates versus the Euro to where at the time of delivery
€1 = $1.10. The contracted price is still €5000 but now the US
Dollar amount is $5500, which is the amount that Amrican liquor
company will have to pay.
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Transaction Risk
Translation Risk
Economic Risk
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Transaction Risk
❖ When a firm or individual has a receivable or a payable in a
foreign currency the Foreign exchange rate may change,
causing an increase in the liability of the home country’s
currency or a decrease in receipts in the home country’s
currency.
❖ The risk of changes in the expected value of a contract
between its signing and its execution as a result of
unexpected changes in foreign exchange rates.
❖ Whoever makes a contract denominated in a foreign
currency bears transaction risk.
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Economic Risk
❖ Economic risk/exposure, also sometimes called operating
risk, is a measure of the change in the net present
value(NPV) of a company as a result of fluctuations in cash
flow caused by changes in foreign exchange rates(FX).
❖ This type of exposure cannot be easily mitigated because it
is related to the unpredictable volatility of currency
exchange rates. Increasing globalization and economic
relations between countries make economic exposure a
source of risk almost for all companies and consumers.
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Interest Rate Risk
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
❖ Interest rate risk is the potential for investment losses
that result from a change in interest rates.
❖ If interest rate rise, for instance, the value of a bond or
other fixed-income investment will decline.
❖ The change in a bond’s price given a change in interest
rates is known as its duration.
❖ Interest rate risk can be reduced by holding bonds of
different durations, and investors may also allay
interest risk by hedging fixed-income investments with
interest rate swaps, options, or other interest rate
derivatives.
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
If an investor has invested some amount in a fixed rate, the bond
at the prevailing price, which offers him a coupon rate of 5%, and
if thereafter interest rises to 6%, then the price of the bond would
decline. This is because the bond is offering a rate of 5% while the
market is offering a rate of 6%. Hence if the investor wants to sell
the bond in the market, the buyer would offer him a lesser amount
for the bond as this bond is low-yielding as compared to the
market. By doing this, the new investor would try to earn the
return similar to the market as the invested amount is less.
Example of Interest Rate Risk
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Purchasing power Risk
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Purchasing power risk
Is the impact of
Inflation or deflation
On an investment.
Rising prices on goods
And services are
Normally associated
With what is referred to
As inflation.
Falling prices on goods
And services are termed
As deflation.
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt
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Sanatan Dharma College
Ambala Cantt

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Security analysis and investment management ppt

  • 6. Example of Default risk Assume Tony wants his savings in bank fixed deposits to get invested in some corporate bonds as it can provide higher returns. However, he is aware that bonds include counterparty default risks or credit risks, i.e., the bond issuer will get defaulted, and Tony is not going to receive any of the promised cash flows. So Tony decides to price these risks in order to get reimbursed for the extra risk he is going to be exposed to. He finds the two basic measures of default/credit risks are:- ❖ Credit Risk Scores that range between 300 and 850 ❖ Bond credit Ratings agencies like Moody’s, fitch etc. Sanatan Dharma College Ambala Cantt
  • 7. Assessing Default Risk 1. Credit Ratings One can access this risk by the ratings given by the credit rating agencies. 2. Past performance and quarterly results It can be assessed by the past performance of the company like if a company has defaulted in repayment of debt in the past, the default risk is to be accessed as high, or if there are poor quarterly results published, the chances of loss and risk are high. Sanatan Dharma College Ambala Cantt
  • 8. 3. Market position and Goodwill If the company or borrower has a higher reputation in the market, that means the company or borrower has excellent goodwill. So, one can trust the borrower and invest or lend the money based on reputation in the market on the faith that the borrower will overcome the unfavourable situation. 4. Type of Borrower It can be assessed from borrower to borrower also. If the borrower is a Government company, the chances of loss become low. Hence, the risk will below. Whereas, if the borrower is the newly formed private company, the chances of risk are more; therefore, the risk is to be assessed as high. Sanatan Dharma College Ambala Cantt
  • 10. Foreign Exchange Risk Sanatan Dharma College Ambala Cantt
  • 11. ❖ The risk of an investment’s value changing due to changes in currency exchange rates. ❖ The risk that an investors will have to close out a long or short position in a foreign currency at a loss due to an adverse movement in exchange rates. Also known as “currency risk” or “exchange-rate risk”. ❖ This risk usually affects businesses that export and/or import. ❖ But also affect investors making international investments. Sanatan Dharma College Ambala Cantt
  • 12. Example of foreign exchange risk An American liquor company signs a contract to buy 100 cases of wine from a french retailer for €50 per case, or €5,000 total, with payment due at the time of delivery. The American company agrees to this contract at a time when the Euro and the US Dollar are of equal value, so €1=$1. Thus, American company expects that when they accept delivery of the wine, they will be obligated to pay the agreed upon amount of €5000, which at the time of the sale was $5000. However, it will take a few months for delivery of the wine. In the meantime, due to unforeseen circumstances, the value of the US Dollar depreciates versus the Euro to where at the time of delivery €1 = $1.10. The contracted price is still €5000 but now the US Dollar amount is $5500, which is the amount that Amrican liquor company will have to pay. Sanatan Dharma College Ambala Cantt
  • 13. Transaction Risk Translation Risk Economic Risk Sanatan Dharma College Ambala Cantt
  • 14. Transaction Risk ❖ When a firm or individual has a receivable or a payable in a foreign currency the Foreign exchange rate may change, causing an increase in the liability of the home country’s currency or a decrease in receipts in the home country’s currency. ❖ The risk of changes in the expected value of a contract between its signing and its execution as a result of unexpected changes in foreign exchange rates. ❖ Whoever makes a contract denominated in a foreign currency bears transaction risk. Sanatan Dharma College Ambala Cantt
  • 17. Economic Risk ❖ Economic risk/exposure, also sometimes called operating risk, is a measure of the change in the net present value(NPV) of a company as a result of fluctuations in cash flow caused by changes in foreign exchange rates(FX). ❖ This type of exposure cannot be easily mitigated because it is related to the unpredictable volatility of currency exchange rates. Increasing globalization and economic relations between countries make economic exposure a source of risk almost for all companies and consumers. Sanatan Dharma College Ambala Cantt
  • 19. Interest Rate Risk Sanatan Dharma College Ambala Cantt
  • 20. ❖ Interest rate risk is the potential for investment losses that result from a change in interest rates. ❖ If interest rate rise, for instance, the value of a bond or other fixed-income investment will decline. ❖ The change in a bond’s price given a change in interest rates is known as its duration. ❖ Interest rate risk can be reduced by holding bonds of different durations, and investors may also allay interest risk by hedging fixed-income investments with interest rate swaps, options, or other interest rate derivatives. Sanatan Dharma College Ambala Cantt
  • 21. If an investor has invested some amount in a fixed rate, the bond at the prevailing price, which offers him a coupon rate of 5%, and if thereafter interest rises to 6%, then the price of the bond would decline. This is because the bond is offering a rate of 5% while the market is offering a rate of 6%. Hence if the investor wants to sell the bond in the market, the buyer would offer him a lesser amount for the bond as this bond is low-yielding as compared to the market. By doing this, the new investor would try to earn the return similar to the market as the invested amount is less. Example of Interest Rate Risk Sanatan Dharma College Ambala Cantt
  • 22. Purchasing power Risk Sanatan Dharma College Ambala Cantt
  • 24. Purchasing power risk Is the impact of Inflation or deflation On an investment. Rising prices on goods And services are Normally associated With what is referred to As inflation. Falling prices on goods And services are termed As deflation. Sanatan Dharma College Ambala Cantt
  • 27. CREDITS: This presentation template was created by Slidesgo, including icons by Flaticon, and infographics & images by Freepik Sanatan Dharma College Ambala Cantt