This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the SANZ UNDESD Future Dialogues. 17 November 2008
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at a New Zealand Planning Institute lecture. 24 September 2009
Asia Pacific Foresight Group presentation – climate disruption and climate re...Wendy McGuinness
Wendy McGuinness was invited to join the Asia Pacific Foresight Group (APFG), a small group of strategic foresight practitioners working across NGOs, governments, and different industries in the Asia Pacific region. The inaugural meeting was held in Sydney on 30 September and 1 October 2019.
Each participant was invited to talk about a 'megatrend' that may impact the Asia Pacific region over the next 5 to 20 years. Wendy McGuinness presented on climate disruption, with a specific focus on climate reporting.
The document discusses futures studies and scenario planning for long-term national strategic development in New Zealand. It outlines key drivers of global change, possible futures for New Zealand in 2058 under different scenarios, and the need for a national sustainable development strategy to optimize New Zealand's future and align its industry. Past initiatives exploring New Zealand's strategic development and possible futures are also summarized.
This document provides an overview of future studies and implications for local government in New Zealand. It discusses the history of future studies, from initially focusing on problems with two variables to recognizing that all variables are interrelated. It outlines several tools used in future studies, including scenarios and assumptions mapping. The document then discusses two ongoing "emergencies" - COVID-19 and climate change - that require long-term planning and challenges assumptions of return to normalcy. Exercises are presented to explore implications and uncertainties of different climate change scenarios for business strategy and policymaking. The complexities of multiple overlapping governance boundaries in New Zealand are also noted.
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the World Futures Conference, Chicago. 20 July 2009
20211101 9am presented draft future of local govt review presentationMcGuinness Institute
This document provides a history of foresight initiatives in New Zealand from 1936 to 2010. It discusses how even relatively simple structures like bridges can fail unexpectedly, demonstrating the difficulty of predicting political changes. Major volcanic eruptions have significant climate impacts globally through sulfate aerosols. The document outlines four-step models for planning future initiatives and recaps foresight work since 1976. It discusses the Long-term Insights Briefings produced for the Australian Government and Prime Minister Helen Clark's vision for New Zealand. Various local councils created scenarios and the document proposes creating a national reference scenarios framework to help organizations prepare for uncertain futures.
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute as a Design Studies Keynote Lecture, Otago University. 17 August 2009
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at Massey University's Agriculture Address series. 7 April 2009
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at a New Zealand Planning Institute lecture. 24 September 2009
Asia Pacific Foresight Group presentation – climate disruption and climate re...Wendy McGuinness
Wendy McGuinness was invited to join the Asia Pacific Foresight Group (APFG), a small group of strategic foresight practitioners working across NGOs, governments, and different industries in the Asia Pacific region. The inaugural meeting was held in Sydney on 30 September and 1 October 2019.
Each participant was invited to talk about a 'megatrend' that may impact the Asia Pacific region over the next 5 to 20 years. Wendy McGuinness presented on climate disruption, with a specific focus on climate reporting.
The document discusses futures studies and scenario planning for long-term national strategic development in New Zealand. It outlines key drivers of global change, possible futures for New Zealand in 2058 under different scenarios, and the need for a national sustainable development strategy to optimize New Zealand's future and align its industry. Past initiatives exploring New Zealand's strategic development and possible futures are also summarized.
This document provides an overview of future studies and implications for local government in New Zealand. It discusses the history of future studies, from initially focusing on problems with two variables to recognizing that all variables are interrelated. It outlines several tools used in future studies, including scenarios and assumptions mapping. The document then discusses two ongoing "emergencies" - COVID-19 and climate change - that require long-term planning and challenges assumptions of return to normalcy. Exercises are presented to explore implications and uncertainties of different climate change scenarios for business strategy and policymaking. The complexities of multiple overlapping governance boundaries in New Zealand are also noted.
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the World Futures Conference, Chicago. 20 July 2009
20211101 9am presented draft future of local govt review presentationMcGuinness Institute
This document provides a history of foresight initiatives in New Zealand from 1936 to 2010. It discusses how even relatively simple structures like bridges can fail unexpectedly, demonstrating the difficulty of predicting political changes. Major volcanic eruptions have significant climate impacts globally through sulfate aerosols. The document outlines four-step models for planning future initiatives and recaps foresight work since 1976. It discusses the Long-term Insights Briefings produced for the Australian Government and Prime Minister Helen Clark's vision for New Zealand. Various local councils created scenarios and the document proposes creating a national reference scenarios framework to help organizations prepare for uncertain futures.
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute as a Design Studies Keynote Lecture, Otago University. 17 August 2009
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at Massey University's Agriculture Address series. 7 April 2009
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the Wellington Regional Strategy (WRS) Summit. 14 November 2008
The document discusses New Zealand's history and drivers of change that will impact its future development. It outlines several primary drivers, including climate change, population trends, ecosystems/biodiversity, energy, resources, values and beliefs, and public voice. It then discusses four possible scenarios for New Zealand's future in 2058 based on how these drivers may unfold. The document argues that developing a national sustainable development strategy can help optimize New Zealand's future by aligning industry and reinforcing its national brand.
TCFD Workshop: Practical steps for implementation – Wendy McGuinnessMcGuinness Institute
Across Wednesday 16 October and Thursday 17 October 2019, the McGuinness Institute partnered with Simpson Grierson to host two workshops exploring the Recommendations of the TCFD in Auckland and Wellington. This presentation was given by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the McGuinness Institute.
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at a Futures Thinking Aotearoa Forum. 29 October 2008
This document outlines the agenda and presentations for a one-day workshop in Gisborne on tackling poverty. The workshop includes sessions on youth perspectives on poverty, national and local perspectives on poverty from Treasury and Victoria University, challenges and opportunities in tackling poverty, and observations on survey results and a discussion paper. Presenters will discuss concepts like the living standards framework, the impacts of poverty on health, data on poverty indicators in the Tairāwhiti region, the role of Treaty settlements in social and economic revitalization, and community-led approaches to tackling poverty.
This document discusses foresight activities in New Zealand including:
1) A series of reports published from 2007-2011 that explored topics like sustainable development strategies, Māori representation, and the future of various industries.
2) Online videos and conversations from 2008-2010 that discussed ideas about the future.
3) Four possible futures scenarios for New Zealand in 2058 published in a 2008 report.
4) The intention to create a National Sustainable Development Strategy for New Zealand.
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the 7X7 Ideas Exchange: 7 Imaginations. 26 August 2008
This talk was given by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute to visiting International Honours Progam Students, Massey University. 11 February 2009
This document provides a summary of a report on the future state of New Zealand that was prepared for a world conference. It identifies 21 global drivers of change that could impact New Zealand's future and groups them into primary and secondary change agents as well as wild cards. For each driver, it outlines potential obstacles and opportunities for New Zealand, noting issues like climate change, population growth, ecosystem vulnerability, and energy supply challenges but also opportunities in technology adoption, agricultural productivity, and protecting biodiversity. The full report will analyze how these drivers may influence New Zealand's future context in more detail.
This document summarizes a presentation about establishing reference climate scenarios for Aotearoa New Zealand. It defines reference climate scenarios as three or four synthesized narratives that describe plausible climate futures for New Zealand based on the latest science and how the country might respond. The presentation discusses the need to recognize uncertainties, provide a shared understanding of potential futures, and establish a common language and platform for climate risk reporting. It also reviews survey results on organizations' consideration of and preparation for climate impacts. Additionally, it poses questions about how the reference climate scenarios should be developed, including their purpose, timeline, name, scope, time horizon, development process, and responsible parties.
This document summarizes key points from a discussion paper about New Zealand's COVID-19 response and future challenges:
1) COVID-19 is still not under control globally with new variants emerging quickly and vaccine effectiveness waning, posing ongoing risks.
2) New Zealand's vaccination rollout has been slow with doses too close together, and stock levels and logistics have not been properly managed.
3) To prepare for future pandemics and crises, governance systems need to be redesigned to incorporate long-term thinking, interdisciplinary collaboration, equity, and flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances.
4) Significant uncertainties remain around COVID-19, requiring continued vigilance and a range of policy options to
TacklingPovertyNZ Workshop - How to tackle poverty in RotoruaMcGuinness Institute
This document summarizes a one-day workshop held in Rotorua on tackling poverty. The workshop included several sessions: a welcome from McGuinness Institute; a youth presentation; a national and local perspective on poverty from NZ Treasury; a discussion of challenges and opportunities; and observations from participants. It provides an agenda, outlines of presentations, and handouts on topics like community, social services, employment, and education. The goal was to build and share ideas on how to tackle poverty from local communities.
This document summarizes a climate strategy event hosted by the McGuinness Institute in New Zealand. The event featured several speakers who discussed topics like infrastructure, governance, culture, and nature in the context of exploring a climate strategy for New Zealand. The goal was to have a national conversation to help ensure New Zealand can withstand climate change risks, meet international commitments, transition to a low-carbon economy, and remain a just society. Upcoming related events were also announced.
Wendy McGuinness gives a speech about passion and pragmatism in philanthropy. She discusses founding the Sustainable Future Institute think tank to explore long term issues in New Zealand like economic, environmental, and social problems. She argues think tanks are important to identify complex issues, inform the public, and ask new questions. Sustainable Future is currently examining implications of the economic downturn, like increased focus on family and safety, and opportunities it presents. McGuinness hopes the think tank can help develop a national strategy to guide New Zealand to a better future.
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the NZ Risk Management Soceity Conference. 6 November 2008
Dennis Bushnell proposes a new industry for New Zealand to become a global hub for innovation and invention. New Zealand has many attractive qualities like its landscape, climate, and safety. The world is shifting to digital connectivity through telecommuting and online activities. New Zealand's economy relies heavily on extraction industries. Bushnell suggests New Zealand become the preferred place for people around the world to live and work on inventing the future, like a worldwide Silicon Valley, exploiting increased connectivity through low Earth orbit satellites. This would attract global talent, export ideas, and create new economic opportunities through real estate, services, and initial manufacturing to support innovation.
The document discusses the need to plan strategically for New Zealand's future in the year 2058. It argues that developing a clear vision and shared goals for issues like energy, the environment, and social issues can help ensure New Zealand thrives and is an example to the world. The speaker cites historical figures like King Tawhiao and Julius Vogel as examples of leaders who strategically planned for the future and helped New Zealand progress. Developing a strategic blueprint will require public discussion and debate to create a plan with widespread support.
The document discusses foresight initiatives in Korea and New Zealand. It provides context on the two countries, including differences in land area, population size, and resources. It then outlines three aspects of foresight: hindsight which examines history, insight which analyzes current trends, and foresight which considers possible and preferred futures. The document uses New Zealand's foresight strategy project as an example, outlining its goals and methods including scenario planning and strategic foresight research.
Wendy McGuinness One Integrated Report - Local Government Conference, 15 Nove...McGuinness Institute
This document discusses integrated reporting and proposals for improving environmental and local government reporting in New Zealand. It outlines recommendations from several organizations to standardize reporting metrics and make information more consistent and useful for decision-making. Key proposals include establishing a framework for integrated financial and sustainability reporting, collecting nationally consistent environmental statistics from local authorities, and reforming local government structures in Wellington through a unitary council model.
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the Wellington Regional Strategy (WRS) Summit. 14 November 2008
The document discusses New Zealand's history and drivers of change that will impact its future development. It outlines several primary drivers, including climate change, population trends, ecosystems/biodiversity, energy, resources, values and beliefs, and public voice. It then discusses four possible scenarios for New Zealand's future in 2058 based on how these drivers may unfold. The document argues that developing a national sustainable development strategy can help optimize New Zealand's future by aligning industry and reinforcing its national brand.
TCFD Workshop: Practical steps for implementation – Wendy McGuinnessMcGuinness Institute
Across Wednesday 16 October and Thursday 17 October 2019, the McGuinness Institute partnered with Simpson Grierson to host two workshops exploring the Recommendations of the TCFD in Auckland and Wellington. This presentation was given by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the McGuinness Institute.
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at a Futures Thinking Aotearoa Forum. 29 October 2008
This document outlines the agenda and presentations for a one-day workshop in Gisborne on tackling poverty. The workshop includes sessions on youth perspectives on poverty, national and local perspectives on poverty from Treasury and Victoria University, challenges and opportunities in tackling poverty, and observations on survey results and a discussion paper. Presenters will discuss concepts like the living standards framework, the impacts of poverty on health, data on poverty indicators in the Tairāwhiti region, the role of Treaty settlements in social and economic revitalization, and community-led approaches to tackling poverty.
This document discusses foresight activities in New Zealand including:
1) A series of reports published from 2007-2011 that explored topics like sustainable development strategies, Māori representation, and the future of various industries.
2) Online videos and conversations from 2008-2010 that discussed ideas about the future.
3) Four possible futures scenarios for New Zealand in 2058 published in a 2008 report.
4) The intention to create a National Sustainable Development Strategy for New Zealand.
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the 7X7 Ideas Exchange: 7 Imaginations. 26 August 2008
This talk was given by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute to visiting International Honours Progam Students, Massey University. 11 February 2009
This document provides a summary of a report on the future state of New Zealand that was prepared for a world conference. It identifies 21 global drivers of change that could impact New Zealand's future and groups them into primary and secondary change agents as well as wild cards. For each driver, it outlines potential obstacles and opportunities for New Zealand, noting issues like climate change, population growth, ecosystem vulnerability, and energy supply challenges but also opportunities in technology adoption, agricultural productivity, and protecting biodiversity. The full report will analyze how these drivers may influence New Zealand's future context in more detail.
This document summarizes a presentation about establishing reference climate scenarios for Aotearoa New Zealand. It defines reference climate scenarios as three or four synthesized narratives that describe plausible climate futures for New Zealand based on the latest science and how the country might respond. The presentation discusses the need to recognize uncertainties, provide a shared understanding of potential futures, and establish a common language and platform for climate risk reporting. It also reviews survey results on organizations' consideration of and preparation for climate impacts. Additionally, it poses questions about how the reference climate scenarios should be developed, including their purpose, timeline, name, scope, time horizon, development process, and responsible parties.
This document summarizes key points from a discussion paper about New Zealand's COVID-19 response and future challenges:
1) COVID-19 is still not under control globally with new variants emerging quickly and vaccine effectiveness waning, posing ongoing risks.
2) New Zealand's vaccination rollout has been slow with doses too close together, and stock levels and logistics have not been properly managed.
3) To prepare for future pandemics and crises, governance systems need to be redesigned to incorporate long-term thinking, interdisciplinary collaboration, equity, and flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances.
4) Significant uncertainties remain around COVID-19, requiring continued vigilance and a range of policy options to
TacklingPovertyNZ Workshop - How to tackle poverty in RotoruaMcGuinness Institute
This document summarizes a one-day workshop held in Rotorua on tackling poverty. The workshop included several sessions: a welcome from McGuinness Institute; a youth presentation; a national and local perspective on poverty from NZ Treasury; a discussion of challenges and opportunities; and observations from participants. It provides an agenda, outlines of presentations, and handouts on topics like community, social services, employment, and education. The goal was to build and share ideas on how to tackle poverty from local communities.
This document summarizes a climate strategy event hosted by the McGuinness Institute in New Zealand. The event featured several speakers who discussed topics like infrastructure, governance, culture, and nature in the context of exploring a climate strategy for New Zealand. The goal was to have a national conversation to help ensure New Zealand can withstand climate change risks, meet international commitments, transition to a low-carbon economy, and remain a just society. Upcoming related events were also announced.
Wendy McGuinness gives a speech about passion and pragmatism in philanthropy. She discusses founding the Sustainable Future Institute think tank to explore long term issues in New Zealand like economic, environmental, and social problems. She argues think tanks are important to identify complex issues, inform the public, and ask new questions. Sustainable Future is currently examining implications of the economic downturn, like increased focus on family and safety, and opportunities it presents. McGuinness hopes the think tank can help develop a national strategy to guide New Zealand to a better future.
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the NZ Risk Management Soceity Conference. 6 November 2008
Dennis Bushnell proposes a new industry for New Zealand to become a global hub for innovation and invention. New Zealand has many attractive qualities like its landscape, climate, and safety. The world is shifting to digital connectivity through telecommuting and online activities. New Zealand's economy relies heavily on extraction industries. Bushnell suggests New Zealand become the preferred place for people around the world to live and work on inventing the future, like a worldwide Silicon Valley, exploiting increased connectivity through low Earth orbit satellites. This would attract global talent, export ideas, and create new economic opportunities through real estate, services, and initial manufacturing to support innovation.
The document discusses the need to plan strategically for New Zealand's future in the year 2058. It argues that developing a clear vision and shared goals for issues like energy, the environment, and social issues can help ensure New Zealand thrives and is an example to the world. The speaker cites historical figures like King Tawhiao and Julius Vogel as examples of leaders who strategically planned for the future and helped New Zealand progress. Developing a strategic blueprint will require public discussion and debate to create a plan with widespread support.
The document discusses foresight initiatives in Korea and New Zealand. It provides context on the two countries, including differences in land area, population size, and resources. It then outlines three aspects of foresight: hindsight which examines history, insight which analyzes current trends, and foresight which considers possible and preferred futures. The document uses New Zealand's foresight strategy project as an example, outlining its goals and methods including scenario planning and strategic foresight research.
Wendy McGuinness One Integrated Report - Local Government Conference, 15 Nove...McGuinness Institute
This document discusses integrated reporting and proposals for improving environmental and local government reporting in New Zealand. It outlines recommendations from several organizations to standardize reporting metrics and make information more consistent and useful for decision-making. Key proposals include establishing a framework for integrated financial and sustainability reporting, collecting nationally consistent environmental statistics from local authorities, and reforming local government structures in Wellington through a unitary council model.
StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future presentation: World Future Society Conference,...McGuinness Institute
This presentation covers the StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future event hosted by the Sustainable Future Institute in March 2011 in Wellington.
This presentation was delivered by Wendy McGuinness, Dr Peter Bishop, Rory Sarten and Jess Prendergast at the World Future Society Conference in Vancouver 2011.
Talent Central – It’s all about growing and retaining our talentMcGuinness Institute
This document outlines a framework to promote regional growth through developing talent, leadership, innovation, and pathways between education and employment. The three key pillars are:
1) Extending leadership skills in the region through initiatives like Leadership Manawatu.
2) Fostering a culture of innovation for all ages and employment types.
3) Creating education to employment pathways at all levels through coordination between schools, universities and local industry like Pathways Manawatu.
A new body called Talent Central would own and coordinate this framework to scale up existing programs, generate new initiatives, and identify gaps to further promote regional economic growth.
TalentNZ Workshop at the NZ Community Boards Conference - 15 and 16 May 2015McGuinness Institute
This document summarizes a TalentNZ workshop discussing talent and the future of work. It addresses what talent means, the future of different skills, and what people want. It also discusses future studies and risks, demographics, and climate change impacts. Finally, it discusses what community boards can do, including developing shared visions, engaging policy components, and developing initiatives. The overall workshop aimed to create a place where talent wants to live.
Futures studies involves using scenarios and trends to explore possible, probable, and preferred futures. There are three key aspects: probable futures focus on forecasting based on current trends; possible futures explore alternative scenarios and risks; and preferred futures develop strategies for enacting a visionary future. Key steps include defining parameters, exploring uncertainties, building scenarios, and using implications. Strategy maps translate strategies into a cause-and-effect framework to achieve an organization's mission and vision. Significant events, talent, and reviews can impact a nation's future direction.
The StrategyNZ one-day workshop explored how New Zealand might better prepare and publish government department strategy documents on Thursday, 14 July 2016.
StrategyNZ is a McGuinness Institute project that began in early 2006. The overall aim is to contribute to a discussion on how to improve long-term strategic thinking and strategy stewardship in both the private and the public sector. To learn about the history and methodology of this project, see http://strategynz.info/.
The document discusses several countries' strategies for shaping their future by focusing on talent, innovation, and sustainability. Key points addressed include developing a national strategy to manage resources and attract talent, addressing issues like climate change, debt, and food/water shortages through green technologies and reforms, and branding countries as caring, innovative places through strategic promotion and reflecting public opinion.
This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the Pathways to Resilient Communities event. 7 March 2009
1. Sir Paul Callaghan gave a presentation in 2011 outlining his vision for making New Zealand "a country where talent wants to live" through focusing on education, R&D, branding, and leadership.
2. The presentation discussed strategies like boosting science education, increasing R&D investment, marketing NZ's quality of life, and taking a bipartisan approach to economic development.
3. The document proposed creating a "Ministry of Talent" to both attract tourists and promote NZ as a destination for global talent, in order to maximize economic benefits while reducing environmental impacts.
McGuinness Institute Presentation: Government Department Strategies Index 2015McGuinness Institute
McGuinness Institute
For more information on the GDS Index 2015 see www.gdsindexnz.org
More information about the Institute can be found at www.mcguinnessinstitute.org
The Baby Box Co. donated baby boxes to Project TacklingPovertyNZ. The McGuinness Institute gave a baby box to the community at each of the one-day TacklingPovertyNZ workshops. In this slide share there are photos of baby boxes in Queenstown, the New Zealand Treasury in Wellington, Rotorua, Gisborne, Kaitaia and Kaikohe.
This document discusses how the nature of work is changing from the traditional "9:00am to 5:00pm" model. It first provides background on key dates in technology and society. It then addresses three questions: 1) Why spatial information is important by defining it and giving examples of its uses. 2) How the traditional work model is changing due to new priorities around work-life balance, flexibility, and diversity. 3) Suggestions for moving forward, including quotes about learning from others, building empathy, and focusing on character over credentials. The document advocates embracing these changes to work styles and perspectives.
Spain work tech 2050 scenarios and national workshopsJerome Glenn
Intro to The Millennium Project, inevitability of new economics, global study on future work/technology 2050, three global work/tech 2050 scenarios, and workshops to explore national long-range strategies to address issue raised in the scenarios.
This document provides a summary of a report on the future state of New Zealand that was prepared for a world conference. It identifies 21 global drivers of change that could impact New Zealand's future, including climate change, population growth, energy supply, and ecosystems/biodiversity. It analyzes obstacles and opportunities for New Zealand presented by each driver, such as the need for international cooperation on climate change but also the ability to quickly adopt new green technologies. The report aims to help New Zealand pursue its preferred sustainable future by addressing or leveraging these global trends.
The Slide Share categories a annoyingly stupid. This a an overview of the global future situation with implications for Latin America for the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.
1) The document discusses the need for holistic, whole-of-government intelligence that considers a wide range of threats and policies and is focused on decision support rather than secret sources or individual disciplines.
2) It argues that intelligence should not be divided into separate functions but viewed as a "scheme of things entire" and that supporting judgment should be a core function.
3) The document presents a preliminary holistic analytic model and identifies gaps in considering issues like poverty, disease, and environmental threats that are essential to future-proofing analysis.
This document provides an 18 slide staff briefing on open source intelligence (OSINT) and defense. It discusses how defense intelligence needs have changed from focusing solely on conventional threats during the Cold War to addressing unconventional threats today. It argues that OSINT can provide the most satisfaction of intelligence requirements at the lowest cost. It recommends establishing an OSINT program line across the Department of Defense and an open source intelligence center to better leverage openly available information for defense needs.
This document discusses intelligence and open source information. It argues that intelligence should focus on decision support, holistic analysis, counterintelligence on domestic threats, and integrated scalable IT. The document outlines a preliminary holistic analytic model and proposes that open source information can address most economic, social and military threats. It advocates for a whole of government approach to intelligence that focuses on cross-cutting issues rather than individual countries or domains. The document also discusses the need for new rules and approaches for intelligence, including greater emphasis on non-traditional threats, cultural and geospatial analysis, and collaborative work.
This document discusses future global trends and scenarios based on input from over 50 CSIRO scientists. It identifies several key megatrends that will shape the future, including a more digital and interconnected world, increasing urbanization and mobility, divergent demographics like an aging population, and needing to do more with less resources. The document also discusses potential megashocks like pandemics or climate change and presents scenarios for how the identified megatrends could play out globally in the future.
World Futuer Society talk on the Global Situation and Prospects for the FutureJerome Glenn
This document discusses global challenges and prospects for the future. It outlines 15 major global challenges facing the world today, such as sustainable development, clean water access, climate change, and more. It presents the current situation for each challenge as well as the desired situation. It then discusses the development of a Global Futures Intelligence System to help address these challenges through collective intelligence and ongoing analysis. This system would gather input from experts worldwide and use tools like forecasting models to study long-term global trends and produce just-in-time knowledge to help with decision making. The goal is for this system to help "win the race" between implementing solutions and the increasing complexity of global problems.
Presented by Jerome Glenn
How do we handle the world’s major challenges? This session will provide a framework to better understand global change and what is strategic for the future of civilization. Worldwide synergies and cross-impacts will be cited among sustainable development, climate change, water, demographics, democratization, ICT, development gaps, health and disease, global foresight and decision making, conflict and security, gender relations, organized crime, energy, S&T, global ethics, and education.
Global Future Changes and Millennium ProjectJerome Glenn
Overview of global challenges, strategies, new technologies to improve the prospects for humanity from the Millennium Project and its annual State of the Future report
Over the last two centuries technological innovation has played a fundamental role in economic development, wealth creation and social progress. Spain has not played and do not play today a leading role in the field. Since the advent of democracy in 1978, the country has undergone a remarkable economic and social transformation. However, it has not been enough to substantially reduce the income gap it maintains with the most advanced economies in the world. We wonder why and we briefly explore some historical clues.
More fundamentally, we question what changes would be necessary and whether this situation might even change in the future. Two documents presented by the Spanish government in 2021, “Spain 2050” and ‘Spain Entrepreneurial Nation,” look forward to an entrepreneurial nation by 2030. They are based on rigorous state-of-the-art policy and economic analysis. However, we are facing a world systemic change of paradigm, a (Great?) socio technical transition, and successful models that worked in the previous system might not work in a new one. Furthermore, macroeconomic projections do not consider the strategic interaction among different players in a conflicting world. It is necessary to review some accepted premises and dive under the superficial “litany.”
Our objective is to understand the key forces driving change, and the most important factors and levers available to a meaningful player in the game. We use a country, Spain, as a test and showcase, but our objective is to outline a high level, holistic model inspired by scenario planning and game theory to study future adaptive strategies for a country, corporation or even a global organization in the evolving socio techno economic system of the next 25-50 years.
Global conflicts have existed since humans first lived in societies and, with advancing technology, the nature of conflicts has changed significantly over time. This course will teach students how to analyze indicators of living standards in developing versus developed countries using graphs, data and maps to draw conclusions about the impacts of consumption in wealthier nations. Students will plan an investigation into a developing country by identifying causes and patterns of poverty and debt, and reflecting on aid organizations and charities. They will research their topic in groups and present their findings in a 15-minute multi-modal presentation with evidence of research.
Global conflicts have existed since humans first lived in societies and, with advancing technology, the nature of conflicts has changed significantly over time. This course will teach students how to analyze indicators of living standards in developing versus developed countries using graphs, data and maps to draw conclusions about the impacts of consumption in wealthier nations. Students will plan an investigation into a developing country by identifying causes and patterns of poverty and debt, and reflecting on aid organizations and their role in global issues.
1. The document discusses the history and development of New Zealand from Maori settlement to modern times, covering key events, policies, and trends.
2. It examines drivers of change and challenges facing New Zealand, such as climate change, population shifts, resource management, and globalization.
3. The Sustainable Future Institute is presented as developing long-term strategic planning through Project 2058, which includes research, scenario modeling, and recommendations to guide New Zealand's sustainable development over the next 50 years.
The document discusses New Zealand's history and potential future scenarios. It covers:
1) Key events in New Zealand's history from Maori settlement to modern issues around sustainability and the economy.
2) Drivers of change and challenges facing New Zealand's future like climate change, resources, and population issues.
3) Four possible futures for New Zealand in 2030 and 2058, ranging from prosperous to failure, to explore uncertainties and policy choices.
4) The need for a national sustainable development strategy and long term strategic thinking to help New Zealand optimise its future prospects.
Citris smarter planet ict and service 20110505 v1ISSIP
The document discusses how information and communication technologies (ICT) and service innovation can work together to build a smarter planet. It describes ICT growth and challenges related to sustainability. It also discusses the growth of the service economy and challenges related to jobs and skills sustainability. The document advocates that a smarter planet is needed to address issues like environmental sustainability, public sector fiscal challenges, and ensuring jobs and skills sustainability through regional innovation ecosystems and lifelong learning.
How to Identify and Unlock inherent potential within government to achieve mo...commonsenseLT
This document outlines a methodology for using Theory of Constraints (TOC) to help government agencies achieve better, faster, and cheaper services. It begins with identifying the system goal of improving service quality and coverage while reducing avoidable costs and investment. Next, it discusses using TOC's five focusing steps to identify the system constraint, decide how to better exploit it, subordinate other parts of the system, and elevate or break the constraint if needed. Three case studies are presented showing how TOC has helped achieve better quality and coverage of solid waste services, faster delivery of affordable housing, and cheaper emergency relief services. Metrics are discussed for measuring improvements. The document argues that applying TOC to critical areas like infrastructure, agriculture, and
The document discusses the changing nature of knowledge and skills needed in today's globalized world. It notes that past international test scores did not correlate strongly with later economic success and quality of life outcomes. Countries that scored higher on 1960s math and science tests tended to have lower GDP growth, productivity, democracy, and livability 40 years later compared to countries like the United States. It argues that non-cognitive skills like creativity, cross-cultural competence, and character are becoming increasingly important for both individuals and nations in the 21st century global economy.
Global Overview of Challenges and Prospects for Our FutureWorldFuture2015
The document provides an overview of global challenges and prospects for the future. It discusses how the world is improving in areas like health, education, and connectivity, but also notes major future dangers like technological unemployment, weapons of mass destruction, and climate change impacts. It outlines variables used in the State of the Future Index and shows trends in areas like poverty reduction, life expectancy increases, and internet access. It also explores framework of 15 global challenges and lists potential high-impact actions to address multiple challenges simultaneously, such as establishing environmental security cooperation between countries and developing new forms of agriculture. The document concludes by noting inevitable changes like rising inequality and potential for unemployment without new economic approaches, as well as increasingly significant technologies.
Similar to Second Bounce of the Ball - SANZ UNDESD (20)
Learning lessons from early adopters of Aotearoa New Zealand Climate Standard...McGuinness Institute
The document provides an overview of climate-related disclosure requirements in New Zealand. It summarizes the initial results of analyzing climate statements from 111 annual reports of listed companies. Key findings include: 5 companies fully disclosed according to climate standards, 26 disclosed partially, and 34 expressed intent to disclose fully in the future. Disclosures provided insight into long-term climate scenarios and risks. Recommendations include improving accessibility of climate statements.
The document provides a timeline of 857 historical events that have contributed to the development of Aotearoa New Zealand from 1769 to present day. The timeline is organized into different domains and threads and can be read chronologically or filtered by domain, thread, or index entries. Some of the earliest events included are Cook's arrival in 1769 and claiming of New Zealand for Britain, the introduction of diseases that significantly impacted Māori populations, and other first contact between Māori and Europeans in the late 18th century.
Foresight tools help us brainstorm ideas about the future so we are better prepared for the opportunities and challenges that may arise. It provides the ability to forward engage, interacting early before issues become difficult to manage.
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This document provides an overview of the role of aquaculture in New Zealand's marine space, with a focus on salmon farming in the Marlborough Sounds and Cook Strait. It discusses the lack of scientific data on ocean flora and fauna, and how this allows commercial interests to trump environmental protection. Seven infographics are included to illustrate current ocean management challenges, such as many outdated permits, poor baseline data collection, and the discharge of farmed salmon waste. The document argues for improved governance and decision-making to better protect New Zealand's marine environment and meet international conservation commitments.
This document provides 7 infographics summarizing the current state of ocean management in the Marlborough Sounds and Cook Strait of New Zealand. It finds a lack of scientific data on ocean flora and fauna, with commercial interests often prioritized over environmental protection. The infographics examine issues like protected species, aquaculture regulations, the impacts of climate change on salmon farming, and future strategic options for the industry. The document concludes with recommendations for improving ocean governance and management.
The document outlines the agenda for a BIG Ideas Briefing to the Incoming Government event on February 22, 2023. The agenda includes an introduction by Wendy McGuinness, a discussion led by Professor Girol Karacaoglu, and a Q&A session. Refreshments will be provided. The briefing will discuss cross-cutting themes identified in research and provide an implementation checklist for BIG policy actions. The goal is to share insights with new government patrons on developing shared narratives, establishing supportive governance, stakeholder engagement, and effective implementation of anticipatory policies.
20221007 3pm McGuinness 3Waters Oral Powerpoint FINAL -plus 5.pdfMcGuinness Institute
The document provides an oral submission on the Water Services Entities Bill from Wendy McGuinness, CEO of the McGuinness Institute. It identifies several errors and inconsistencies in the bill and explanatory note. It recommends strategic and operational improvements to governance, including establishing a Minister of Water, a single water services entity modelled after Scottish Water, and aligning the entities with climate change policy and reporting requirements. It emphasizes concepts like public accountability, foresight in planning for climate shocks, and the need for flexible policy given increasing climate impacts on water systems. Questions are posed for discussion.
This document provides an overview of how futurists think compared to strategists. It discusses that futurists focus on possible futures by looking for weak signals and patterns, while strategists focus on a preferred future. It also notes that futurists consider a wide range of data, even data they have low confidence in, to develop foresight, while strategists focus on known information. The document recommends separating foresight and strategy tasks but also thinking like a futurist before acting like a strategist.
The document proposes reclassifying stewardship land on the West Coast of New Zealand to increase conservation and create ecological corridors. It summarizes three myths about current conservation efforts and outlines eight recommendations, including increasing national park areas, creating biodiversity corridors, restoring native forests, and establishing metrics to measure conservation outcomes. The rationale provided is the urgent need to address the biodiversity crisis as species decline and face increased threats from climate change and associated extreme weather. Reclassifying stewardship land is presented as a strategic solution that can both protect biodiversity and help mitigate climate change impacts through carbon sequestration.
The document proposes reclassifying stewardship land on the West Coast of New Zealand to increase conservation and create ecological corridors. It summarizes three myths about current conservation efforts and outlines eight recommendations, including increasing national park areas, creating biodiversity corridors, restoring native forests, and establishing metrics to measure conservation outcomes. The rationale provided is the urgent need to address the biodiversity crisis as species decline and face increased threats from climate change and associated extreme weather. Reclassifying stewardship land is presented as a strategic solution that can both protect biodiversity and help mitigate climate change impacts through carbon sequestration.
The document summarizes concerns about errors and inconsistencies in the Water Services Entities Bill and explanatory note. It provides strategic recommendations to improve the bill's governance, including establishing a Minister of Water, creating a single water services entity instead of four regional ones, and transferring water service assets to either a new type of local authority or a Crown entity similar to the Scottish model. The recommendations also address pricing of water usage, broadening the purpose of regulation, including access and risk management in law, and improving accountability through public registers and extending oversight bodies' jurisdiction to water services entities.
The document provides a summary of concerns and recommendations regarding the Water Services Entities Bill presented to the Finance and Expenditure Committee in New Zealand Parliament. Key points include:
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This document provides an overview and analysis of government department strategies (GDSs) in New Zealand. It notes that as of December 2021 there were 221 operational GDSs across government departments. It then provides key statistics on GDSs such as length, number of strategy maps, climate change mentions, and more. The preface discusses the purpose of GDSs and this handbook. Finally, it outlines four major recommendations: 1) Improving communication of government priorities 2) Reassessing all GDSs to consider climate change 3) Establishing a central GDS register 4) Guidance for departments on improving GDS content.
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This document provides a history of foresight initiatives in New Zealand from 1936 to 2010. It discusses how even relatively simple structures like bridges can fail unexpectedly, demonstrating the difficulty of predicting political changes. It also summarizes the impacts of major volcanic eruptions on climate and agriculture. The document then outlines four-step models for planning future initiatives and recaps some key New Zealand foresight projects from the 1980s onward. It provides examples of long-term insights briefings and scenarios developed by local councils and government agencies on topics like poverty, civic engagement, and climate change.
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Second Bounce of the Ball - SANZ UNDESD
1. The Second Bounce of the Ball . sustainablefuture.info
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3. An avatar is a computer user's representation of himself/herself or alter ego. Virtual reality (VR) is a technology which allows a user to interact with a computer-simulated environment, be it a real or imagined one.
5. Large Numbers a thousand 10 3 in a pinch a million 10 6 in a cup a billion 10 9 in a bathtub a trillion 10 12 in a classroom a quadrillion 10 15 in a 100 floor office block
6. 2008 10 billion years 0 4.45b 5.55b Habilis – the archetypal jack-of-all-trades, inquisitive scavengers prepared to try almost anything to survive. They were tough, active, gregarious and noisy, always on the move and always alert to the possibility of a … meal. B oisei – specialised in only one niche, lived within a strict social structure and were led by a dominant male whose strength and power held the group together. Two million years ago, evolution tells us… Strategic Knowledge
8. The US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory Computer can crunch a ‘quadrillion’ calculations per second If everyone in the world performed one mathematical calculation per second, it would take 650 years to do what this machine can do in one day. Data
9. Man & Machine? Man is expected to create a machine with the equivalent of a human brain by 2029… Data
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11. Project 2058 1 3 2030 2058 Scenarios Possible Probable Possible 2008 2 4
12. Report 14 State of New Zealand’s Future Report 15 Scenarios: Exploring New Zealand’s long-term future NEW ZEALAND’S NATIONAL ASSETS Report 7 The State Sector: Reviewing the landscape (2009) Report 8 The State of Publicly Funded Science (2009) Report 9 The State of Infrastructure (2009) Report 10 The State of Natural Resources (2009) Report 11 The Essence of New Zealand’s Identity (2009) Report 12 Towards a Tikanga-Kaupapa Perspective on Sustainability (2009) Report 16 A National Sustainable Development Strategy for New Zealand Report 13 A SWOT Analysis: New Zealand’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (2009) Report 6 History of Past Future Thinkers (2009) Report 1 A National Sustainable Development Strategy: How New Zealand measures up against international commitments (August 2007) A NATIONAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY NEW ZEALAND’S GOVERNMENT Report 2 New Zealand Central Government Strategies: Reviewing the landscape 1990-2007 (August 2007) Report 3 Supporting Local Government: Existing initiatives for sustainable development (March 2008) Report 4 Institutions for Sustainable Development: Developing an optimal framework for New Zealand (October 2008) Report 5 The Common Elements of a National Sustainable Development Strategy: Learning from international experience (October 2008) Part 2: Scenarios Part 1: Research Part 3: Strategy
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16. Our Methodology Fail Fail Fail New Zealand does not manage its strengths and weaknesses and… New Zealand does manage its strengths and weaknesses and.. … the World does not manage its opportunities and threats … the World does manage its opportunities and threats Scenario Matrix
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18. New Zealand needs a ‘National Strategy’ to optimise our future, to align our industry, to reinforce our national brand and to be an example of what is possible
22 million Xbox 360s sold as at Sept 2009 – put on market in May 2005 Use as a phone 22 million members of Stardoll The Coming of Age in Second Life .
The strategic thinker finds strategic knowledge in the complex and chaotic data stream of everyday living
Bose I – Dr Robert Winston – Walking with Apes Same thing happened about 100,000 years ago - Homo sapiens In the South - have developed a mind capable of imagination - a creature capable of understanding and anticipating possibilities, with the gift of abstract thought. - Neanderthals In the North - have physical power but did not survive
November 12, 2008 - 11:52AM How fast is the new supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory? If everyone in the world performed one mathematical calculation per second, it would take 650 years to do what this machine can do in one day. That makes the $US100 million computer, nicknamed "Jaguar" by scientists, the fastest in the world for unclassified scientific research. At more than 1 quadrillion mathematical calculations per second, it is about 55,000 times faster than your typical PC. Only one other supercomputer is faster, and it's devoted to classified research on nuclear weapons at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. Global climate change, space matter that can't be seen, and alternative energy - everything from improved gasoline combustion to fusion - are some of the subjects Jaguar will be used to research. In June, Jaguar, a Cray system, was rated fifth-fastest in the world by researchers who track the 500 top supercomputers. The Oak Ridge lab, a Department of Energy facility, announced Monday that it had upgraded Jaguar since then, and achieved its four-year goal of 1 quadrillion calculations per second - or 1 "petaflop" - six months ahead of schedule. Jaguar recently achieved sustained performance of more than 1.3 petaflops while churning out calculations on superconductivity and has hit a peak speed of 1.64 petaflops, the lab said. It is still undergoing final trials but should be ready for research by January. Thomas Zacharia, Oak Ridge's associate director for computing, anticipates a waiting list of proposals and near full-time operation when the computer begins work. All users must share their results with the broader scientific community.
Over 1 million industrial robots are working today
The total spent on the military world wide is about $1 trillion – page 4, State of the Future, 2008
Sustainable Future methodology, Version 2, Page 17