Over the last two centuries technological innovation has played a fundamental role in economic development, wealth creation and social progress. Spain has not played and do not play today a leading role in the field. Since the advent of democracy in 1978, the country has undergone a remarkable economic and social transformation. However, it has not been enough to substantially reduce the income gap it maintains with the most advanced economies in the world. We wonder why and we briefly explore some historical clues. More fundamentally, we question what changes would be necessary and whether this situation might even change in the future. Two documents presented by the Spanish government in 2021, “Spain 2050” and ‘Spain Entrepreneurial Nation,” look forward to an entrepreneurial nation by 2030. They are based on rigorous state-of-the-art policy and economic analysis. However, we are facing a world systemic change of paradigm, a (Great?) socio technical transition, and successful models that worked in the previous system might not work in a new one. Furthermore, macroeconomic projections do not consider the strategic interaction among different players in a conflicting world. It is necessary to review some accepted premises and dive under the superficial “litany.” Our objective is to understand the key forces driving change, and the most important factors and levers available to a meaningful player in the game. We use a country, Spain, as a test and showcase, but our objective is to outline a high level, holistic model inspired by scenario planning and game theory to study future adaptive strategies for a country, corporation or even a global organization in the evolving socio techno economic system of the next 25-50 years.

1. Spain. A country for the future?
Strategies for a socio technical transition
Francisco J. Jariego & Isabel F. Peñuelas
Francisco J. Jariego, PhD
https://indieresearch.net
@fjjariego __
FUTURES CONFERENCE 2023
EMPOWERING FUTURES
14-16 June 2023, Turku, Finland

2. SPAIN is a Moderate Innovator with
performance at 88.8% of the EU
average. Performance is below the
average of the Moderate Innovators
(89.7%).
FINLAND is an Innovation Leader
with performance at 135.5% of the EU
average. Performance is above the
average of the Innovation Leaders
(134.4%).
Performance of EU Member States’ innovation systems, European Innovation Scoreboard 2022
WHY

3. Indicator Value Year Rank Trend
Best
Country
Value 2012 2013 2016 2017 2019 2020 2022
GDP (nominal) $Billion 1,435,560 2021 15 USA 25,346,805 13 13 14 14 13 14 15 -2
Spending on Tertiary Education %GDP 1,30% 2019 24 Chile 2,70% 25 25 25 27 27 27 24 1
R&D Intensity % GDP 1,40% 2020 28 Israel 5,40% 28 28 29 29 29 29 28 0
BERD %GDP 0,70% 2018 27 Israel 4,30% 28 28 27 29 26 26 27 1
Total Gov. Funding of BERD %GDP 0,06% 2018 23 Korea 0,16% 8 8 15 14 22 22 23 -15
Scientific Production (#papers) 1.731.575 1996-2021 11 USA 14.408.686 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 -2
Scientific Production (#papers) 122.688 2021 12 China 860.012 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 -2
Scientific Impact (H) 1.073 2021 12 USA 2.711 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 0
Patents Applications Residents 3.225 2020 24 China 1.344.817 14 14 16 16 20 20 24 -10
Patents Granted Residents 1.485 2020 24 China 440.691 11 11 13 13 13 13 24 -13
Patents Applications Total (Origin) 10.170 2020 22 China 1.441.086 20 20 20 20 23 23 22 -2
Patents Granted Total (Origin) 5.342 2020 21 China 485.168 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 -1
Venture Capital Availability 3,80 2019 29 USA 5,20 105 105 41 37 37 37 29 76
Network Readiness 69,94 2021 23 Netherlands 82.06 38 38 35 35 35 35 23 15
Ease of doing Business 77,9 2020 30 New Zealand 86,8 52 52 33 33 30 30 30 22
Rank 10+ years
Rank
Change
Innovation in Spain. A Bird’s-Eye View
IMF - World Economic Outlook
OECD - STI Scoreboad
SJR - Scimago Journal & Country Rank
WIPO - World Intellectual Property Organization
WEF - World Economic Forum
World Bank

4. Looking into the future…
Spain Entrepreneurial Nation
An invitation: The journey to Spain Entrepreneurial Nation begins here. What we are clear on is that
the Spain Entrepreneurial Nation mission belongs to, and must be undertaken by all men and women
living in our country or it simply won’t be.
The goal is to make Spain an Entrepreneurial Nation by 2030

5. Inflation
Covid-19
Great Recession
Ukraine
AI
Sept. 11th

6. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=444143

7. Progress
Science & Technology & Innovation
Innovation & Socio Economic Transitions
"Economic Miracle"
Culture
Population Demography is destiny… or not, but at the very least, population is the engine of social evolution
Nation State
Culture is weird and eats strategy for breakfast
Beyond a nation-state vision of the world, toward a real cognitive democracy
The Challenge
Productivity is almost everything, when we consider all production factors
Science is a flower, innovation is a weed
Learn to “catch the waves” of innovation.
Socio Technical Transitions cut across complexity, contradictions, and chaos
Comparison of "PESTLE" factors driving the two periods
1750 – 2000 // 2000 -
1750 - 2001 2001 -
Industrial Revolution A New Weird Revolution
So far New
Progress Productivity Growth Productivity, Sustainability E
Science & Technology & Innovation Energy, Industry, Information Energy, Artificial Intelligence, Synthetic Biology T
Innovation & Socio Economic Transitions Engineering Complexity S, T, E
"Economic Miracle" Casual Learned P, E
Culture W.E.I.R.D. weird S
Population Growing Stagnation, Decrease S
Nation State Splendor Barrier P, L
PESTLE
factor

8. • Conventional “W.E.I.R.D” World
• Barbarization
• Great Transition
Based on Paul Raskin et. al., https://greattransition.org/gti-forum/which-future-raskin
A Great Transition?
1750 – 2000 // 2000 -

9. The Futures Game. Scenarios
Socio Techno Economic Transition
to Sustainable Model
Stagnation / Collapse Slow Change & Adaptation
Fast Adoption of new
energy models - Over
Expectations
3
Global Geopolitics Dominant
Model
China Wins - Informational
Autocracy
USA Renaissance -
Reinforcement of
democracies
Multilateral Pacific
Coexistence - New models
of participaction,
international Pluralism
3
Technological Breakthrough (TB)
New Energy, Artificial Intelligence,
Synthetic Biology…
Breakthrough in at least 1
key Technology
2
18
Dimension
#
Scenarios
Sustained Technological Progress
Total # Scenarios
Possible Values (Stylized Model)

10. Dull & Dangerous World
This is the (absolutely) dominant scenario in today’s science fiction, very
specifically in Spain and Latin America
“Right” Trial of Progress
This is the dominant scenario in today’s macroeconomics, very
specifically the one behind Spain 2050 and Spain Entrepreneurial Nation
New “weird” Revolution
And this? Where are our sources of inspiration and debate fora
The Futures Game. Scenarios
?

11. Who are the “representative” AGENTS in the game?
Countries (nation states) are not the only or even the fundamental
game players in the long-term futures game
• Governments and administrations (countries, cities, regions)
• Political parties
• Public and non-governmental Organizations
• Private Firms, in particular Corporations
• Personalities (Elite)
• Emergent Autonomous Organizations
• …

12. How are they forging their strategies?
The official date for the opening of the New World has
long been fixed as that of Columbus’ first voyage.
Broadly speaking, two complementary kinds of
exploration beckoned Western man. (…)
One exploration focussed mainly on the sky and on the
orderly motions of planets and falling bodies, on space
measuring and timekeeping. It was concerned with
abstract symbols, rational systems, universal laws,
repeatable and predictable events. The other boldly
traversed uncharted oceans and even burrowed below
the surface of the earth, seeking the Promised Land. It
dwelt on the concrete and the organic, the adventurous,
the tangible.
Lewis Mumford, The Pentagon of Power, 1967

13. The Future will always be weird
Looked from today’s perspective

14. Models to understand “emergent” future scenarios
Agent Awareness & Collective Intelligence
E6 E7
E3 E5 E10 E11
E8 E12 E14
…
…

15. Strategic
Planning
Agents
Intelligent
Network
by
in an

16. indieresearch.net
@fjjariego
https://pacojariego.me/
https://ideasyficciones.pacojariego.me
francisco.jariego@indieresearch.net