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Cairo University
Faculty of Computers & Information
Decision Support (DS) Department

Simulation Software Packages

Final Exam 2005/2006

Duration: 3 hours

Instructor: Dr. Mohamed Saleh

22 Dec. 2005

(Q1) Theoretical Question
System dynamics is useful in many modeling circumstances, but not all. Describe a realistic
problem in which system dynamics would not be the best approach to solve the problem. That
is, describe a problem in which an alternative modeling approach has important advantages.
Do not select a problem which cannot be solved or modeling is impossible.
(Q2) Modeling Question (1)
During the course, you studied a system dynamics model designed to simulate the growth of
staff faculty (teaching assistant ….. professors) till year 2025. This model takes into
considerations the following points:
•
Promotion mechanisms of staff faculty
•
Quit rates of staff faculty.
•
A retirement rate of professors
•
A hiring policy designed to maintain a standard ratio between students and each
category of staff faculty.
Draw a complete stock & flow diagram of the model. Write all equations of the model.
(Q3) Modeling Question (2)

a) Draw the Stock and flow diagram of the Bass Diffusion Model.
b) Write all equations of the model
c) Even though the Bass model often works well, the model invokes a number of restrictive
assumptions. List as many restrictive assumptions as you can.
(Q4) Causal Loop Question

Draw a simple loop that may have produced the behavior in each of the following cases:
•
The exponential growth of the US economy
•
The exponential growth of the Egyptian population
•
The exponential growth of semiconductor performance
(Q5) Graphical Integration

Consider a stock with a single inflow rate R1 and single outflow rate R2. Draw the behavior of the
stock given the behavior of the two rates shown below. The initial value of the stock is 100.

Page 1 of 2
12

R1

10
8
6
4
2
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

70

80

90

100

Time
15

R2

10
5
0
-5
-10
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Time

(Q6) Dynamics of Simple Models

Production_Rate
Inventory
Desired_Inventory
Adjustment_Time

Desired_Inventory

Consider the inventory model drawn below. Assume the production rate is equal to the gap
(between desired and actual inventory) divided by the adjustment time (AT). Given the behavior
of the desired inventory (shown below), sketch the behavior of the inventory and production rate.
Assume that inventory initially equals the desired inventory & AT = 14.4 time units.

2,000

1,500

1,000
0

5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Time

Gap

(Q7) Case Study

In an effort to ease periods of energy shortages, Americans since the mid-1980s have imported
more and more barrels of Oil to ensure their daily “fix”. Unwilling as a country to restrict use of
cars and other luxuries, they have grown addicted to foreign oil supplies. The U.S. government
has even engaged in a military buildup in the Middle East to secure this short-term source of Oil.
At the same time, American scientists have tried to develop options for alternate energy sources.
Switching from an oil-based economy to one based on multiple energy sources poses quite a
challenge and requires a long-term commitment to the strategy. It is difficult to focus on
developing alternative solutions, when every day , the country hungers for more and more oil
and gives in to the temptation to buy foreign oil for short-term satisfaction, less is invested in
developing alternative energy sources
- Identify the key variables in this situation
- Draw a causal loop diagram

Page 2 of 2

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Sd final05 06_ds

  • 1. Cairo University Faculty of Computers & Information Decision Support (DS) Department Simulation Software Packages Final Exam 2005/2006 Duration: 3 hours Instructor: Dr. Mohamed Saleh 22 Dec. 2005 (Q1) Theoretical Question System dynamics is useful in many modeling circumstances, but not all. Describe a realistic problem in which system dynamics would not be the best approach to solve the problem. That is, describe a problem in which an alternative modeling approach has important advantages. Do not select a problem which cannot be solved or modeling is impossible. (Q2) Modeling Question (1) During the course, you studied a system dynamics model designed to simulate the growth of staff faculty (teaching assistant ….. professors) till year 2025. This model takes into considerations the following points: • Promotion mechanisms of staff faculty • Quit rates of staff faculty. • A retirement rate of professors • A hiring policy designed to maintain a standard ratio between students and each category of staff faculty. Draw a complete stock & flow diagram of the model. Write all equations of the model. (Q3) Modeling Question (2) a) Draw the Stock and flow diagram of the Bass Diffusion Model. b) Write all equations of the model c) Even though the Bass model often works well, the model invokes a number of restrictive assumptions. List as many restrictive assumptions as you can. (Q4) Causal Loop Question Draw a simple loop that may have produced the behavior in each of the following cases: • The exponential growth of the US economy • The exponential growth of the Egyptian population • The exponential growth of semiconductor performance (Q5) Graphical Integration Consider a stock with a single inflow rate R1 and single outflow rate R2. Draw the behavior of the stock given the behavior of the two rates shown below. The initial value of the stock is 100. Page 1 of 2
  • 2. 12 R1 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 70 80 90 100 Time 15 R2 10 5 0 -5 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Time (Q6) Dynamics of Simple Models Production_Rate Inventory Desired_Inventory Adjustment_Time Desired_Inventory Consider the inventory model drawn below. Assume the production rate is equal to the gap (between desired and actual inventory) divided by the adjustment time (AT). Given the behavior of the desired inventory (shown below), sketch the behavior of the inventory and production rate. Assume that inventory initially equals the desired inventory & AT = 14.4 time units. 2,000 1,500 1,000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Time Gap (Q7) Case Study In an effort to ease periods of energy shortages, Americans since the mid-1980s have imported more and more barrels of Oil to ensure their daily “fix”. Unwilling as a country to restrict use of cars and other luxuries, they have grown addicted to foreign oil supplies. The U.S. government has even engaged in a military buildup in the Middle East to secure this short-term source of Oil. At the same time, American scientists have tried to develop options for alternate energy sources. Switching from an oil-based economy to one based on multiple energy sources poses quite a challenge and requires a long-term commitment to the strategy. It is difficult to focus on developing alternative solutions, when every day , the country hungers for more and more oil and gives in to the temptation to buy foreign oil for short-term satisfaction, less is invested in developing alternative energy sources - Identify the key variables in this situation - Draw a causal loop diagram Page 2 of 2