This slideshow documents a set of slides that were attached to a tri-fold and presented at a science fair as a model of a new way for students to explore scientific inquiries. It was an attempt to show science teachers at a private school how students could mine online data and use the scientific method to draw conclusions about the data. The effort was unsuccessful. The science fair coordinator was adament that my model project wasn't "real science." When I asked her if she hadn't seen scientific presentations on global warming that had mined climate databases, she would not be swayed. Jeffrey Bledsoe 15 January 2014

1. Introduction
•The following slide show illustrates a science fair type of poster
(tri-fold) I displayed at Weatherford Christian School’s science fair,
held 1/14/05. Neither poster nor slide show include all the formal
elements of the scientific method, such as a hypothesis.
•The results, derived from historical climatic data for Texas, have
questionable scientific validity since I used data from only one
year (1895) as a standard against which to compare 20th century
yearly and average data.
•The primary purpose of this poster project was to make students
and teachers aware of the potential for new and fascinating areas
of research available by mining historical data on the www.
Jeffrey Bledsoe, 1/14/05

2. Why Are Texans
Drinking More Iced Tea
Than Ever?

3. Background/Research

4. Scientists point out that:
•Arctic glaciers are melting faster
•Animals are migrating northward
•Plants are flowering earlier
•Weather has been ‘unusual’

5. Scientists disagree about:
•The causes of warming
•Long-term impacts on environment
•Urgency of the problem
•How to solve the problem

6. The infamous “hockey stick” curve:

7. The infamous “hockey stick” curve:
•Covers 1,800 yrs. in Northern
Hemisphere
•Published in Nature by Mann, et. al.
•Shows major changes since 1902
•Became a political poster

8. The infamous “hockey stick” curve:
•Questioned by scientists in 2004
•Canadians McIntyre, McKitrick(M&M)
•MIT Technology Review: Richard Muller
•Improper data anlaysis?
•Nature:
•Refereed M&M’s paper
•Refused to publish
•Paper too technical !?!

9. Acquiring Trends:
20th Century
Texas Climate

10. Ten Texas Divisions are
Defined by National Climate
Data Center :

11. Data obtained from National Climate
Data Center Website:
•http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onlineprod/d
•Average Monthly Temperature for each Division
from 1895 thru 2003
•Monthly Average of Precipitation Totals for each
Division from 1895 thru 2003

12. Data Manipulation and Analysis:
•Imported data into Excel
•Used 1895 data as baseline to compare with
other years
•Subtract 1895 data from each year’s data
•Monthly comparisons (e.g., Dec. 1895
compared to other Dec’s)
•Positive results indicate increase over 1895
levels
•Negative results indicate decrease from
1895 levels
•Used Excel 6th order polynomial trendlines to
show Division trends

13. Trends for Temperature and
Precipitation Over 1895 Levels, for
all Texas Divisions
(10 charts follow)

14. Texas Division 1
Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 1 for the period 1896 - 2003
(6th order polynom ial trendlines. Raw data from http://w w w .ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/clim ate/onlineprod/drought/xm grg3.htm l)
Temp (deg F) and Precipitation (inches2O)
H
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
5
89
-1
ov
N
1
90
-1
ov
N
7
90
-1
ov
N
3
91
-1
ov
N
9
91
-1
ov
N
5
92
-1
ov
N
1
93
-1
ov
N
Temp1-1895
7
93
-1
ov
N
3
94
-1
ov
N
Prec1-1895
9
94
-1
ov
N
Date
5
95
-1
ov
N
1
96
-1
ov
N
Temperature Increase Over 1895
7
96
-1
ov
N
3
97
-1
ov
N
9
97
-1
ov
N
Precipitation Increase Over 1895
5
98
-1
ov
N
1
99
-1
ov
N
7
99
-1
ov
N
3
00
-2
ov
N
*Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895
Levels

15. Texas Division 2
Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 2 for the period 1896 - 2003
(6th order polynom ial trendlines. Raw data from http://w w w .ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/clim ate /onlineprod/drought/xm grg3.htm l)
Temp (deg F) and Precipitation (inches2O)
H
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
5
89
-1
ov
N
1
90
-1
ov
N
7
90
-1
ov
N
3
91
-1
ov
N
9
91
-1
ov
N
5
92
-1
ov
N
Temp2-1895
1
93
-1
ov
N
7
93
-1
ov
N
Prec2-1895
3
94
-1
ov
N
9
94
-1
ov
N
Date
5
95
-1
ov
N
Temperature Increase Over 1895
1
96
-1
ov
N
7
96
-1
ov
N
3
97
-1
ov
N
Precipitation Increase Over 1895
9
97
-1
ov
N
5
98
-1
ov
N
1
99
-1
ov
N
7
99
-1
ov
N
3
00
-2
ov
N
*Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895
Levels

16. Texas Division 3
Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 3 for the period 1896 - 2003
(6th order polynom ial trendlines. Raw data from http://w w w .ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/clim ate/onlineprod/drought/xm grg3.htm l)
Temp (deg F) and Precipitation (inches O)
2H
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
95
18
vo
N
01
19
vo
N
07
19
vo
N
13
19
vo
N
19
19
vo
N
25
19
vo
N
Temp3-1895
31
19
vo
N
37
19
vo
N
Prec3-1895
43
19
vo
N
49
19
vo
N
Date
55
19
vo
N
Temperature Increase Over 1895
61
19
vo
N
67
19
vo
N
73
19
vo
N
Precipitation Increase Over 1895
79
19
vo
N
85
19
vo
N
91
19
vo
N
97
19
vo
N
03
20
vo
N
*Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895
Levels

17. Texas Division 4
Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 4 for the period 1896 - 2003
Temp (deg F) and Precipitation (inches O)
2H
(6th order polynom ial tre ndlines. Raw data from http://w w w .ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/clim ate/onlineprod/drought/xm grg3.htm l)
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
95
18
vo
N
01
19
vo
N
07
19
vo
N
13
19
vo
N
19
19
vo
N
25
19
vo
N
Temp4-1895
31
19
vo
N
37
19
vo
N
Prec4-1895
43
19
vo
N
49
55
19
19
vvo
o
N Date N
Temperature Increase Over 1895
61
19
vo
N
67
19
vo
N
73
19
vo
N
Precipitation Increase Over 1895
79
19
vo
N
85
19
vo
N
91
19
vo
N
97
19
vo
N
03
20
vo
N
*Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895
Levels

18. Texas Division 5
Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 5 for the period 1896 - 2003
Temp (deg F) and Precipitation (inches O)
2H
(6th order polynom ial trendlines. Raw data from http://w w w .ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/clim ate/onlineprod/drought/xm grg3.htm l)
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
95
18
vo
N
01
19
vo
N
07
19
vo
N
13
19
vo
N
19
19
vo
N
25
19
vo
N
Temp5-1895
31
19
vo
N
37
19
vo
N
Prec5-1895
43
19
vo
N
49
19
vo
N
Date
55
19
vo
N
Temperature Increase Over 1895
61
19
vo
N
67
19
vo
N
73
19
vo
N
Precipitation Increase Over 1895
79
19
vo
N
85
19
vo
N
91
19
vo
N
97
19
vo
N
03
20
vo
N
*Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895
Levels

19. Texas Division 6
Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 6 for the period 1896 - 2003
(6th order polynom ial trendlines . Raw data from http://w w w .ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/clim ate/onlineprod/drought/xm grg3.htm l)
Temp (deg F) and Precipitation (inches O)
2H
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
5
89
-1
ov
N
1
90
-1
ov
N
7
90
-1
ov
N
3
91
-1
ov
N
9
91
-1
ov
N
5
92
-1
ov
N
Temp6-1895
1
93
-1
ov
N
7
93
-1
ov
N
Prec6-1895
3
94
-1
ov
N
9
94
-1
ov
N
Date
5
95
-1
ov
N
Temperature Increase Over 1895
1
96
-1
ov
N
7
96
-1
ov
N
3
97
-1
ov
N
Precipitation Increase Over 1895
9
97
-1
ov
N
5
98
-1
ov
N
1
99
-1
ov
N
7
99
-1
ov
N
3
00
-2
ov
N
*Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895
Levels

20. Texas Division 7
Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 7 for the period 1896 - 2003
Temp (deg F) and Precipitation (inches O)
2H
(6th order polynom ial trendlines. Raw data from http://w w w .ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/clim ate/onlineprod/drought/xm grg3.htm l)
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
5
89
-1
ov
N
1
90
-1
ov
N
7
90
-1
ov
N
3
91
-1
ov
N
9
91
-1
ov
N
5
92
-1
ov
N
Temp7-1895
1
93
-1
ov
N
7
93
-1
ov
N
Prec7-1895
3
94
-1
ov
N
9
94
-1
ov
N
Date
5
95
-1
ov
N
Temperature Increase Over 1895
1
96
-1
ov
N
7
96
-1
ov
N
3
97
-1
ov
N
Precipitation Increase Over 1895
9
97
-1
ov
N
5
98
-1
ov
N
1
99
-1
ov
N
7
99
-1
ov
N
3
00
-2
ov
N
*Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895
Levels

21. Texas Division 8
Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 8 for the period 1896 - 2003
Temp (deg F) and Precipitation (inches O)
2H
(6th order polynom ial trendlines. Raw data from http://w w w .ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/clim ate/onlineprod/drought/xm grg3.htm l)
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
95
18
vo
N
01
19
vo
N
07
19
vo
N
13
19
vo
N
19
19
vo
N
25
19
vo
N
Temp8-1895
31
19
vo
N
37
19
vo
N
Prec8-1895
43
19
vo
N
49
19
vo
N
Date
55
19
vo
N
Temperature Increase Over 1895
61
19
vo
N
67
19
vo
N
73
19
vo
N
Precipitation Increase Over 1895
79
19
vo
N
85
19
vo
N
91
19
vo
N
97
19
vo
N
03
20
vo
N
*Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895
Levels

22. Texas Division 9
Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 9 for the period 1896 - 2003
(6th order polynom ial trendlines. Raw data from http://w w w .ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/clim ate/onlineprod/drought/xm grg3.htm l)
Temp (deg F) and Precipitation (inches O)
2H
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
95
18
vo
N
01
19
vo
N
07
19
vo
N
13
19
vo
N
19
19
vo
N
25
19
vo
N
Temp9-1895
31
19
vo
N
37
19
vo
N
Prec9-1895
43
19
vo
N
49
19
vo
N
Date
55
19
vo
N
Temperature Increase Over 1895
61
19
vo
N
67
19
vo
N
73
19
vo
N
Precipitation Increase Over 1895
79
19
vo
N
85
19
vo
N
91
19
vo
N
97
19
vo
N
03
20
vo
N
*Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895
Levels

23. Texas Division 10
Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 10 for the period 1896 - 2003
(6th order polynom ial trendlines. Raw data from http://w w w .ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/clim ate /onlineprod/drought/xm grg3.htm l)
Temp (deg F) and Precipitation (inches O)
2H
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1
ov
N
5
89
1
90
-1
ov
N
7
90
-1
ov
N
3
91
-1
ov
N
9
91
-1
ov
N
5
92
-1
ov
N
Temp10-1895
1
93
-1
ov
N
-1
ov
N
Prec10-1895
7
93
3
94
-1
ov
N
9
94
-1
ov
N Date
5
95
-1
ov
N
Temperature Increase Over 1895
1
96
-1
ov
N
7
96
-1
ov
N
3
97
-1
ov
N
Precipitation Increase Over 1895
9
97
-1
ov
N
5
98
-1
ov
N
-1
ov
N
1
99
7
99
-1
ov
N
3
00
-2
ov
N
*Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895
Levels

24. 1896-2003 Data Averages
(3 charts follow)

25. Temperature, Texas Divisions 1-10
Average of 1896-2003 Temperature Deltas Above 1895 Temperatures
(Raw data from http://w w w .ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/clim ate/onlineprod/drought/xm grg3.htm l)
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
Temp, deg F
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Div1
Div2
Div3
Div4
Div5
Div6
Texas Divison
Div7
Div8
Div9
Div10

26. Precipitation, Texas Divisions 1-10
Average of 1896-2003 Precipitation Deltas Above 1895 Precipitation*
(Raw data from http://w w w .ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/clim ate/onlineprod/drought/xmgrg3.htm l)
0.2
0.1
Precipitation, inches H O
2
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
Div1 Prec
Div2 Prec
Div3 Prec
Div4 Prec
Div5 Prec
Div6 Prec
Texas Divison
Div7 Prec
Div8 Prec
Div9 Prec
Div10 Prec
*Negative Values Indicate Low er Than 1895 Levels

27. Temp & Precip, Texas Divisions 1-10
Comparison of 1896-2003 Texas Averages for Precipitation and Temperature Above 1895
Levels
(Raw data from http://w w w .ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/clim ate/onlineprod/drought/xm grg3.htm l)
2.000
0.200
1.800
0.100
1.600
Degrees F
1.200
-0.100
1.000
-0.200
0.800
0.600
Inches H2O
0.000
1.400
-0.300
0.400
-0.400
0.200
0.000
-0.500
1
2
3
4
5
6
Texas Divisions
7
Temp
8
Precip
9
10
*Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895
Levels

28. Conclusions
•Region 3 (Parker County and DFW) has among highest average
temperature increase since 1895.
•Region 3 has the greatest average reduction in precipitation since
1895.
•Asking scientific questions and finding the answers from online
databases is, I believe, a viable alternative for science fair
projects. After all, lots of scientists are making careers doing just
that.
•The raw data and my manipulations of that data are available to
anyone who would like to pursue further studies. For example, a
student might want to find data on amphibian populations in
regions of Texas for the last 100 years and graph that data
alongside temperature and precipitation data.
•Otherwise, a student might want to just look at other aspects of
this data by doing statistical analyses plus a lot more climate data
can be found on the www.

29. Biblical Application
Ask and it will be given to you; seek and you will
find. MATT 7:7 NKJV
Acknowledgements
•Thanks to Forrest Mims at SAS (www.sas.org)
for his encouragement in this project.
•Thanks to Dr. John Nielson-Gammon of Texas
A&M for returning my phone call right before
Christmas ‘04 and directing me to the required
data resources at the National Climate Data
Center website.

30. Epilogue (not included in the poster)
• Precipitation deltas could be misleading
– Most people think of precipitation in terms of yearly totals
– Precipitation data presented herein is based on monthly totals
• Data was described as monthly total precipitation levels (averaged across
each TX Division)
but
• Excel charts didn’t say precipitation deltas are on monthly basis
• Yearly totals compared to 1895’s total precipitation should
result in quite different graphs
• Perhaps one of WCS’s students would like to address this or
other Texas climate trend questions.
Jeffrey Bledsoe, 1/19/05