This document discusses the need for a rational, fact-based approach to environmental issues rather than one driven by ideology. It notes that some environmental organizations and discussions are more ideological than rational. While environmentalists have made important contributions, some of their stances are problematic, such as blanket opposition to technologies like genetic engineering, nuclear energy, and large-scale agriculture without considering their benefits or risks objectively. The document advocates assessing risks scientifically rather than assuming new technologies are inherently bad due to their scale or association with large companies. Overall it calls for a balanced, nuanced discussion of environmental challenges that weighs both risks and opportunities.
Topic 1.1 environmental value systems for the IB ESS Course.
What is an Environmental Value System?
What influence your EVS?
How are Environmental Values a System?
Spectrum of EVS
Historical Influences on the environmental movement
Case study: Zakouma National Park shifting Environmental Values
Topic 1.1 environmental value systems for the IB ESS Course.
What is an Environmental Value System?
What influence your EVS?
How are Environmental Values a System?
Spectrum of EVS
Historical Influences on the environmental movement
Case study: Zakouma National Park shifting Environmental Values
Here is Vala's presentation that she gave to the Converge Project's 1st Food Sector Modelling Workshop in Bristol UK on November 2nd 2011. More on this project can be found at www.convergeproject.org
it is a presentation based on environment. in this presentation it is showed that what will be our future if we wll continue to waste resources like this only
MDGs and Global Environmental Change - Governance, Innovation and LearningEuforic Services
Presentation by Andreas Rechkemmer (IHDP) during the High Level Policy Forum - After 2015: Promoting Pro-poor Policy after the MDGs - Brussels, 23 June 2009 - http://www.bit.ly/after2015
Karl Burkart writer for MNN.com gave this lecture at ECREA, the European conference on media & communications research. It explores the possibility that the internet may (somewhat ironically) have the solution for our greatest environmental challenge -- disconnection from both our positive and negative impacts on nature
Here is Vala's presentation that she gave to the Converge Project's 1st Food Sector Modelling Workshop in Bristol UK on November 2nd 2011. More on this project can be found at www.convergeproject.org
it is a presentation based on environment. in this presentation it is showed that what will be our future if we wll continue to waste resources like this only
MDGs and Global Environmental Change - Governance, Innovation and LearningEuforic Services
Presentation by Andreas Rechkemmer (IHDP) during the High Level Policy Forum - After 2015: Promoting Pro-poor Policy after the MDGs - Brussels, 23 June 2009 - http://www.bit.ly/after2015
Karl Burkart writer for MNN.com gave this lecture at ECREA, the European conference on media & communications research. It explores the possibility that the internet may (somewhat ironically) have the solution for our greatest environmental challenge -- disconnection from both our positive and negative impacts on nature
Presentation prepared for a series of lectures on Environmentalism for PS 240 introduction to Political Theory at the University of Kentucky, Spring 2007. Dr. Christopher S. Rice, Instructor.
Global climate change Refers to changes in any aspects of the earth’s climate including temperature, precipitation and storm intensity and patterns.
Global warming is an increase in Earth’s average surface temperature due to rising levels of greenhouse gases.
Climate Resilience: How forward-looking organisations are taking action to mi...Jeremy Williams
Asia Pacific Centre for Social Enterprise (APCSE), Griffith University, Open Lecture Series. Tuesday 19 February, 2013, 6:00 - 7:30pm
South Bank Graduate Centre (S07), Room 1.23
South Bank campus, Griffith University
Climate change requires a new narrative. Professor Jeremy Williams argues that our primary concern now should not be whether climate change is human-induced, but what we are going to do about it in order that societies might protect themselves from the effects of climate change.
GreenATP ucla anderson business school mp totten 06 11Michael P Totten
Slides from seminar. See article for details: http://www.scribd.com/mtotten6756
Summary:
Humanity’s unceasing ingenuity is generating vast economic gain for billions of people with goods unavailable to even kings and queens throughout most of history. Unfortunately, this economic growth has triggered unprecedented se- curity challenges of global and historical magnitude: more absolute poor than any time in human history, the sixth largest extinction spasm of life on earth, climate destabilization with mega-catastrophic consequences, and multi-trillion dollar wars over access to energy. These multiple, inextricably interwoven chal- lenges have low probability of being solved if decision makers maintain the strong propensity to think and act as if life is linear, has no carrying capacity limits, uncertainty is controllable, the future free of surprises, planning is predictable and compartmentalized into silos, and Gaussian distributions are taken as the norm while fat-tail futures are ignored. Although the future holds irreducible uncertainties, it is not fated. The emergence of Internet availability to one-third of humanity and access by most of humanity within a decade has spawned the Web analogue of a ‘Cambrian explosion’ of speciation in knowledge applica- tions. Among the most prodigious have been collaboration innovation networks (COINs) reflecting a diversity of ‘genome’ types, facilitating a myriad of collective intelligence crowd-swarming phenomena (Malone T, Laubacher R, Dellarocas C. The Collective Intelligence Genome. MIT Sloan Management Review, Spring; 2010, Vol. 51). COINs are essential tools for accelerating and scaling transformational solutions (positive tipping points) to the wicked problems confronting humanity. Web COINs enable acceleration of multiple-benefit innovations and solutions to these problems that permeate the nested clusters of linked nonlinear complex adaptive systems comprising the global biosphere and socioeconomy [Raford N. How to build a collective intelligence platform to crowdsource almost anything. Available at: http:news.noahraford.com.
Naming the Epoch: Anthropocene, Capitalocene, EcoceneEcoLabs
The Anthropocene is the proposed name for the geological epoch where humanity is dramatically affecting geological processes. The name draws attention to severe environmental problems – but it also does other things. Jason Moore asks: “Does the Anthropocene argument obscure more than it illuminates?” (2014, 4). Donna Haraway argues that the Anthropocene must be “as short/thin as possible” (2015, 160). Moore, Haraway, Solon and Latour claim the concept uncritically imports Western rationality, imperialism and anthropocentrism – and thereby narrows options for the development of sustainable alternatives.
It is important to be specific about exactly what ‘anthropos’ are doing to destabilise climate systems and other planetary boundaries. There is a particular model of development driving dramatic Earth System change. There are other options. In response to this problem, the Capitalocene is a concept that asserts: “the logic of capital drives disruption of Earth System. Not humans in general” (Salon, 2014).
Bruno Latour says the Capitalocene is “a swift way to ascribe this responsibility to whom and to where it belongs” (2014, 139). It is more specific. Consequently it opens space for other opinions. Yet while the Capitalocene is critical, is not creative. Beyond the assumptions of Anthropocene and the critical perspective of the Capitalocene, new ways of understanding social and ecological relations are emergent.
Design theorist Rachel Armstrong states “there is no advantage to us to bring the Anthropocene into the future… The mythos of the Anthropocene does not help us… we must re-imagine our world and enable the Ecocene” (2015). New ecologically informed ways of thinking and living must be generated. The Ecocene has yet to be designed. Its emergence depends on a new understanding of ecological-human relations and new types of development that emerge from this perspective. The transformative Ecocene describes a curative catalyst for cultural change necessary to survive the Anthropocene.
A presentation at Climate Change: Spatial, Environmental and Cultural Politics University of Brighton, Thursday 28-Friday 29 April 2016.
Dr. Patrick Moore - Agriculture, Human Health, and Environment: Confessions O...John Blue
Agriculture, Human Health, and Environment: Confessions Of A Greenpeace Dropout - Dr. Patrick Moore, Ecosense, from the 2016 Iowa Pork Congress, January 27-28, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2016-iowa-pork-congress
Global Warming Requires An Immediate Solution
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Climate Impact of Software Testing at Nordic Testing DaysKari Kakkonen
My slides at Nordic Testing Days 6.6.2024
Climate impact / sustainability of software testing discussed on the talk. ICT and testing must carry their part of global responsibility to help with the climat warming. We can minimize the carbon footprint but we can also have a carbon handprint, a positive impact on the climate. Quality characteristics can be added with sustainability, and then measured continuously. Test environments can be used less, and in smaller scale and on demand. Test techniques can be used in optimizing or minimizing number of tests. Test automation can be used to speed up testing.
The Art of the Pitch: WordPress Relationships and SalesLaura Byrne
Clients don’t know what they don’t know. What web solutions are right for them? How does WordPress come into the picture? How do you make sure you understand scope and timeline? What do you do if sometime changes?
All these questions and more will be explored as we talk about matching clients’ needs with what your agency offers without pulling teeth or pulling your hair out. Practical tips, and strategies for successful relationship building that leads to closing the deal.
Observability Concepts EVERY Developer Should Know -- DeveloperWeek Europe.pdfPaige Cruz
Monitoring and observability aren’t traditionally found in software curriculums and many of us cobble this knowledge together from whatever vendor or ecosystem we were first introduced to and whatever is a part of your current company’s observability stack.
While the dev and ops silo continues to crumble….many organizations still relegate monitoring & observability as the purview of ops, infra and SRE teams. This is a mistake - achieving a highly observable system requires collaboration up and down the stack.
I, a former op, would like to extend an invitation to all application developers to join the observability party will share these foundational concepts to build on:
Sudheer Mechineni, Head of Application Frameworks, Standard Chartered Bank
Discover how Standard Chartered Bank harnessed the power of Neo4j to transform complex data access challenges into a dynamic, scalable graph database solution. This keynote will cover their journey from initial adoption to deploying a fully automated, enterprise-grade causal cluster, highlighting key strategies for modelling organisational changes and ensuring robust disaster recovery. Learn how these innovations have not only enhanced Standard Chartered Bank’s data infrastructure but also positioned them as pioneers in the banking sector’s adoption of graph technology.
In the rapidly evolving landscape of technologies, XML continues to play a vital role in structuring, storing, and transporting data across diverse systems. The recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) present new methodologies for enhancing XML development workflows, introducing efficiency, automation, and intelligent capabilities. This presentation will outline the scope and perspective of utilizing AI in XML development. The potential benefits and the possible pitfalls will be highlighted, providing a balanced view of the subject.
We will explore the capabilities of AI in understanding XML markup languages and autonomously creating structured XML content. Additionally, we will examine the capacity of AI to enrich plain text with appropriate XML markup. Practical examples and methodological guidelines will be provided to elucidate how AI can be effectively prompted to interpret and generate accurate XML markup.
Further emphasis will be placed on the role of AI in developing XSLT, or schemas such as XSD and Schematron. We will address the techniques and strategies adopted to create prompts for generating code, explaining code, or refactoring the code, and the results achieved.
The discussion will extend to how AI can be used to transform XML content. In particular, the focus will be on the use of AI XPath extension functions in XSLT, Schematron, Schematron Quick Fixes, or for XML content refactoring.
The presentation aims to deliver a comprehensive overview of AI usage in XML development, providing attendees with the necessary knowledge to make informed decisions. Whether you’re at the early stages of adopting AI or considering integrating it in advanced XML development, this presentation will cover all levels of expertise.
By highlighting the potential advantages and challenges of integrating AI with XML development tools and languages, the presentation seeks to inspire thoughtful conversation around the future of XML development. We’ll not only delve into the technical aspects of AI-powered XML development but also discuss practical implications and possible future directions.
Enchancing adoption of Open Source Libraries. A case study on Albumentations.AIVladimir Iglovikov, Ph.D.
Presented by Vladimir Iglovikov:
- https://www.linkedin.com/in/iglovikov/
- https://x.com/viglovikov
- https://www.instagram.com/ternaus/
This presentation delves into the journey of Albumentations.ai, a highly successful open-source library for data augmentation.
Created out of a necessity for superior performance in Kaggle competitions, Albumentations has grown to become a widely used tool among data scientists and machine learning practitioners.
This case study covers various aspects, including:
People: The contributors and community that have supported Albumentations.
Metrics: The success indicators such as downloads, daily active users, GitHub stars, and financial contributions.
Challenges: The hurdles in monetizing open-source projects and measuring user engagement.
Development Practices: Best practices for creating, maintaining, and scaling open-source libraries, including code hygiene, CI/CD, and fast iteration.
Community Building: Strategies for making adoption easy, iterating quickly, and fostering a vibrant, engaged community.
Marketing: Both online and offline marketing tactics, focusing on real, impactful interactions and collaborations.
Mental Health: Maintaining balance and not feeling pressured by user demands.
Key insights include the importance of automation, making the adoption process seamless, and leveraging offline interactions for marketing. The presentation also emphasizes the need for continuous small improvements and building a friendly, inclusive community that contributes to the project's growth.
Vladimir Iglovikov brings his extensive experience as a Kaggle Grandmaster, ex-Staff ML Engineer at Lyft, sharing valuable lessons and practical advice for anyone looking to enhance the adoption of their open-source projects.
Explore more about Albumentations and join the community at:
GitHub: https://github.com/albumentations-team/albumentations
Website: https://albumentations.ai/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/100504475
Twitter: https://x.com/albumentations
GraphSummit Singapore | The Future of Agility: Supercharging Digital Transfor...Neo4j
Leonard Jayamohan, Partner & Generative AI Lead, Deloitte
This keynote will reveal how Deloitte leverages Neo4j’s graph power for groundbreaking digital twin solutions, achieving a staggering 100x performance boost. Discover the essential role knowledge graphs play in successful generative AI implementations. Plus, get an exclusive look at an innovative Neo4j + Generative AI solution Deloitte is developing in-house.
Pushing the limits of ePRTC: 100ns holdover for 100 daysAdtran
At WSTS 2024, Alon Stern explored the topic of parametric holdover and explained how recent research findings can be implemented in real-world PNT networks to achieve 100 nanoseconds of accuracy for up to 100 days.
Removing Uninteresting Bytes in Software FuzzingAftab Hussain
Imagine a world where software fuzzing, the process of mutating bytes in test seeds to uncover hidden and erroneous program behaviors, becomes faster and more effective. A lot depends on the initial seeds, which can significantly dictate the trajectory of a fuzzing campaign, particularly in terms of how long it takes to uncover interesting behaviour in your code. We introduce DIAR, a technique designed to speedup fuzzing campaigns by pinpointing and eliminating those uninteresting bytes in the seeds. Picture this: instead of wasting valuable resources on meaningless mutations in large, bloated seeds, DIAR removes the unnecessary bytes, streamlining the entire process.
In this work, we equipped AFL, a popular fuzzer, with DIAR and examined two critical Linux libraries -- Libxml's xmllint, a tool for parsing xml documents, and Binutil's readelf, an essential debugging and security analysis command-line tool used to display detailed information about ELF (Executable and Linkable Format). Our preliminary results show that AFL+DIAR does not only discover new paths more quickly but also achieves higher coverage overall. This work thus showcases how starting with lean and optimized seeds can lead to faster, more comprehensive fuzzing campaigns -- and DIAR helps you find such seeds.
- These are slides of the talk given at IEEE International Conference on Software Testing Verification and Validation Workshop, ICSTW 2022.
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...James Anderson
Effective Application Security in Software Delivery lifecycle using Deployment Firewall and DBOM
The modern software delivery process (or the CI/CD process) includes many tools, distributed teams, open-source code, and cloud platforms. Constant focus on speed to release software to market, along with the traditional slow and manual security checks has caused gaps in continuous security as an important piece in the software supply chain. Today organizations feel more susceptible to external and internal cyber threats due to the vast attack surface in their applications supply chain and the lack of end-to-end governance and risk management.
The software team must secure its software delivery process to avoid vulnerability and security breaches. This needs to be achieved with existing tool chains and without extensive rework of the delivery processes. This talk will present strategies and techniques for providing visibility into the true risk of the existing vulnerabilities, preventing the introduction of security issues in the software, resolving vulnerabilities in production environments quickly, and capturing the deployment bill of materials (DBOM).
Speakers:
Bob Boule
Robert Boule is a technology enthusiast with PASSION for technology and making things work along with a knack for helping others understand how things work. He comes with around 20 years of solution engineering experience in application security, software continuous delivery, and SaaS platforms. He is known for his dynamic presentations in CI/CD and application security integrated in software delivery lifecycle.
Gopinath Rebala
Gopinath Rebala is the CTO of OpsMx, where he has overall responsibility for the machine learning and data processing architectures for Secure Software Delivery. Gopi also has a strong connection with our customers, leading design and architecture for strategic implementations. Gopi is a frequent speaker and well-known leader in continuous delivery and integrating security into software delivery.
A tale of scale & speed: How the US Navy is enabling software delivery from l...sonjaschweigert1
Rapid and secure feature delivery is a goal across every application team and every branch of the DoD. The Navy’s DevSecOps platform, Party Barge, has achieved:
- Reduction in onboarding time from 5 weeks to 1 day
- Improved developer experience and productivity through actionable findings and reduction of false positives
- Maintenance of superior security standards and inherent policy enforcement with Authorization to Operate (ATO)
Development teams can ship efficiently and ensure applications are cyber ready for Navy Authorizing Officials (AOs). In this webinar, Sigma Defense and Anchore will give attendees a look behind the scenes and demo secure pipeline automation and security artifacts that speed up application ATO and time to production.
We will cover:
- How to remove silos in DevSecOps
- How to build efficient development pipeline roles and component templates
- How to deliver security artifacts that matter for ATO’s (SBOMs, vulnerability reports, and policy evidence)
- How to streamline operations with automated policy checks on container images
DevOps and Testing slides at DASA ConnectKari Kakkonen
My and Rik Marselis slides at 30.5.2024 DASA Connect conference. We discuss about what is testing, then what is agile testing and finally what is Testing in DevOps. Finally we had lovely workshop with the participants trying to find out different ways to think about quality and testing in different parts of the DevOps infinity loop.
Threats to mobile devices are more prevalent and increasing in scope and complexity. Users of mobile devices desire to take full advantage of the features
available on those devices, but many of the features provide convenience and capability but sacrifice security. This best practices guide outlines steps the users can take to better protect personal devices and information.
3. Conflict
Planetary
Demands
Boundaries
Nature Vol. 461, September 2009:
A safe operating space for humanity
This Nature article is one example of a large number of publications that indicate the same baseline: a growing world population plus
increasing standards of living have driven important global systems out of sustainable levels.
4. Demands & Constraints
Energy Growth of population
Material Goods Growth of consumption
Food, Water Economic model that builds
Space on exponential growth
5. Figures from
J. Rockström
(TED)
Boundaries according to nature article:
- Climate Change
- Biodiversity Loss
- Nitrogen Cycle
are already now (way) out the safe area, with the others, the situation is more complicated or unclear:
- Phosphorous Cycle
- Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
- Ocean Acidification
- Global Freshwater Use
- Change in Land Use
- Atmospheric Aerosol Loading
- Chemical Pollution
6. Video from NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Administration: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelE/sc07/
Climate simulation animation for SC07 picture shows current situation.
“The images are of the 5 year mean temperature anomaly – which is done to minimise the amount of weather 'noise' that would
otherwise obscure the trends.”, Gavin Schmidt, NASA; The reference period is a 30 year period from 1951 to 1980
Overall temperature increase (average) of approx. 0.6°C, Important though, is the uneven distribution. E.g. in polar region warming is
significantly stronger and impacts potentially catastrophic.
7. Video from NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Administration: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelE/sc07/
Climate simulation animation for SC07. This picture shows the status according to the model for 2050. This is a relatively moderate
model. Current measurements, e.g. of Carbon Emissions are following IPCC worst-case scenarios.
“The images are of the 5 year mean temperature anomaly – which is done to minimise the amount of weather 'noise' that would
otherwise obscure the trends.”, Gavin Schmidt, NASA; The reference period is a 30 year period from 1951 to 1980
8. “ We are entering
Anthropocene, where humans
are the predominant drivers
of change on a planetary level
Johan Rockström
Johan Rockström is Professor at the Stockholm Resilience Center.
The term „anthropocene“ was introduced by the atmospheric chemist and Nobel laureate Paul Crutzen
9. “ The green revolution is not about
the whales anymore. And it is not
about “our children’s children,” [...]
This is about us.
“ Whenever I hear "we're having a
green revolution", I can´t resist firing
back "Really?
Have you ever heard of a revolution
where no one got hurt?" That´s not
a revolution, that´s a party.
Thomas Friedman
Thomas Friedman, Hot flat and crowded, Why the world needs a green revolution, Release 2.0, Penguin (2009)
Currently: “It's all about looking green–and everyone´s a winner.” But:
The Situation is clear: fast and massive actions are needed. Change is not going to be fun and easy-going.
“Feel Good”, „Party“ Environmentalism leads us nowhere.
Prof. Manfred Grasserbauer (former Director at Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Institute for Environment &
Sustainability, Ispra) talks about the need of a “Third Industrial Revolution”
10. Good & Evil ?
Luckily, we can easily part the world into good and evil!
Can we?
11. Good ?
Greenpeace Activities like demonstrations against Castor transport, a press-release by the Austrian Green party, headlines from a Global
2000 folder.
Photo by
Greenpeace, Grüne Baden Württemberg
Press Release: Green Party Austria, Cover from Global 2000 Document
Bündnis 90 Die Grünen (Sachsen) request to stop funding of atomic research:
http://www.gruene-fraktion-sachsen.de/presse/mitteilungen/pm/artikel/159/pm-2011-191-atomforschung-g.html
12. Norman Borlaug
ure
Nest le: Head of Agricult
Evil ?
Genetic engineering and food technology, large farms,
Atomic powerplant, meat production and non-local food
Norman Borlaug received piece nobel price 1970 for initiating the “green revolution”
Photos by
Nestle, cobalt123 (flickr)
Marylise Doctrinal (flickr,
14. Waste & Recycling
“Silent Spring”
Renewable Energies
Important Contributions
by Environmentalists!
Climate C
Biodiversity & Habitat hange
Protection
Environmental organisations and individual activists made significant contributions in the last decades, for instance:
- Rachel Carson starts environmental movement with “Silent Spring”
- Waste disposal
- Climate change
- Biodiversity and protection of endangered species
- important local initiatives
- good example is WWF: actually shows a significantly more rational attitude compared with other environmental organisations
see e.g. Jason Clay, discussions with major companies to reduce footprint
http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/jason_clay_how_big_brands_can_save_biodiversity.html
15. “Natural” vs. “Artificial”
Nuclear Energy
Organic Food
Problematic Activities?
al Planning Local vs. Glo
R egion bal
Genetic Engineering
For instance:
- life in cities usually creates a significantly smaller footprint than life in the countryside. Thus growth of cities is most likely not a bad
thing, but an opportunity.
- Opposition against nuclear energy made the topic so unpopular, that even very promising new reactor types come to the market with
decades delay.
- Rejection of nuclear energy is ignoring even worse side effects, e.g. the fact, that coal power plants are dominating energy production in
many countries and show much worse effects (also in terms of radioactive exhaust) than nuclear powerplants. See also energy density of
different fuels: http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Booklets/Development/devnine.html (1 kg coal: 3kWh, 1kg Uranium 50.000kWh, 3.500.000
with reprocessing)
- Risk assessment is often driven by “spectacular” headlines, not be reason
- Organic food is partly ideology, and hardly a model to supply the world at 9 Billion
- See also different assessment of green revolution (Norman Borlaugh): for one group he saved the life of a billion people, for others he is
the father of terrible destruction due to industrial farming
16. Fallacies & Ideologies:
The Need for a Cool, Rational Approach
The environmental movement, politics and the discussion in society are more driven by ideology than by rational consideration and facts
17. The “Natural Law” Fallacy
(Appeal to Nature)
- What exactly is natural around us?
- Wheat? Rice?
- Cows, Pigs, Chicken?
- Genetic Engineering is done since thousands of years, are actually one of the most successful human inventions, but called: selective
breeding
- local, grown, traditional stuff is good, synthetical, artificial is bad
Difference between “genetic manipulation” vs. “genetic technology”, the first we do since we are humans, partly with very crude
mechanisms to increase mutation rates (radioactivity, ...)
We do not have to stick to food: our apartments? our clothes? our transportation? our... whole life?
18. The “Big Enterprise” Fallacy
Activity by (Large) Company
“Reflex”
Bad, Questionable...
When a large company does it, it is questionable?!
Really?
Always?
19. Chance or Threat ?
Proper Assessment of risk and following from that analysis a realistic discussion of chances and threats. Some risks are more obvious than others, some are misleading. Most
modern discoveries offer significant chances but also pose certain threats.
- Genetic Engineering
- Nuclear Energy vs. Coal
- Geo-Engineering
- Concrete Examples
- WWF – Mondi: "Nuclear Power"
- "GM corn" Africa
- Organic food: a movement with more or less arbitrary ideas and rules. What should be done is: define a desired outcome, e.g. maximum production of healthy food with
minimum environmental impact.
20. Assessment in Context !
Chance or Threat ?
However, considering the demands and threats mentioned before, we will need all options available to survive the 21st century.
Also there are opportunity costs that are easily forgotten in not-choosing a technology. E.g. a therapy may have side effects (risks), not taking a therapy can have much more
severe effects however.
Example Germany: switching off nuclear powerplants leads to more coal power, thus significant increase in Carbon emissions (and emissions of radioactivity among others) with
terrible effects on environment. Terrible effects during regular operation not failure.
21. Science-Based
Environmentalism
Discussion without ideological bias is needed
22. Complex, non-linear Systems
Complex Systems
- Linear vs. Exponential
- Tipping Points
Example Video: Daisyworld (http://gingerbooth.com/flash/daisyball/): simulated planet with two types of flowers (white/black) with different albedo and rising temperature.
Illustrates on a very simple model the complex interplay of factors, and the resilience a system has (temperature) for a long time. When the tipping point is reached, the system
“flips”. What do we learn from this example (1) External parameter (Energy) increases steadily, yet the system can keep the temp constant (2) This is possible due to feedback
loops within the system, that is, change in vegetation (3) Temp keeps steady until a tipping point is reached, then the system flips.
- The obvious is often not the correct idea
- Examples
- Working
- Office vs. at Home
- Local food vs. imported food
- Tomatoes:Vienna/Spain
- Climate Change
- Overfishing
Complex Systems demand careful analysis not decisions based on ad hoc "plausibility"
23. Measure
Assessm ent of
Monitor
S ituation
Manage
The Role of Science
Major Scientific Funding
Programs
Communication
with Society
- Good assessment of the current situation foundation for action
- Major scientific undertakings
- Climate Modeling
- Biodiversity Assessment
- Energy Research
- Funding
- Communication of Results
NGOs can play an important role in communicating complex scientific findings without dumbing them down!
24. Interdisciplinary Approach
- Sciences
- Assess Threats
- Assess Risks
- Develop new technologies
- Psychology
- Usage patterns
- Influence of behaviour
* Example: Dan Ariely
"If you wanted to design a problem that people would not care
about it would basically look like global warming"
- Sociology and Political studies
- Economics
- New economic and financial systems for the 21. century
- Computer Science
- Software
- Complex Models
- Visualisation
- Presentation
- climate.nasa.gov <http://climate.nasa.gov>
25. my Eco
ono log
y
Ec
“Externalities”
Economic System that
Reflects the Problem
(and is scientific)
- Currently at least parts of influential economics is “virtual” discipline, a parascience having a very narrow picture of an imaginary world
- "Economy as a subdiscipline of Ecology": one core problem is, that economic systems and politics behave as if we would leave on a planet
without borders and limits
- so called “externalities” have to be avoided
26. Appropriate Risk
Assessment
Appropriate Risk assessment between over-hyping new ideas and over-optimistic assumptions, ignoring “black swans”, and ideology-based
pessimism.
Also opportunity costs on non-action has to be taken properly into consideration.
28. 1 We can not afford to waste time and manpower
Environmental problems are the result of
2 complex system interactions
The “obvious” or ”easy” solution can do
3 more harm than good
Good intentions are important, even more important is
4 a well informed, science-based approach
1. The state of earth’s natural systems is increasingly problematic. We should not waste time to do what is
unavoidable anyway. We also should not waste manpower to go into the wrong direction: the patient is very sick
2. Earth’s biosphere is a results of complex interactions of systems of systems. Understanding these systems as
good as possible is the necessary first step before action is taken: diseases can have complex reasons; a good
diagnosis is the first step to healing
3. In many cases black and white painting leads nowhere, “easy”, “obvious” solutions can do more harm than
good: follow scientific standards for healing not esoteric ideas
4. To have the heart in the right place certainly is a good start. But to create a positive impact, “the brain” is
equally important.
29. “Die Selektionnochuns Anschauungsformen gemäß den
Aufgaben in
hat
höchst einfachen Lebensbereichen
eingebaut. Und mit Anschauungen von gestern
unterwerfen wir uns eine Welt von morgen.
Rupert Riedl, Evolution und Erkenntnis, Piper (1985)
30. www.schatten.info
sichten.blogspot.com
Twitter: alex_buzz
Dr. Alexander Schatten
Thank‘s for the attention, please contact me in case of questions.
Looking forward to communicate with you via Twitter too!