Saudi Arabia, the linchpin of regional stability and the country that 1.7 billion Muslims turn towards 5 times daily, promotes that succession will be: an orderly transfer of power, stable, predictable and business as usual. Yet the death of the Saudi monarch has brought the challenges facing the country into sharp focus and shows these are hyper-turbulent times both at home and abroad.

1. Formerly the Cardinal
Richelieu of Saudi. King’s
advisor and Hd. of Royal Ct.
Now removed from all
positions of power.
Engineered appoint. of Prince
Bandar as Chief of the
General Intelligence. Tuwaijri-
Bandar axis has been key,
along with UAE’s Crown
Prince Mmhd bin Zayed al-
Nahyan, in organising against
the Muslim Brotherhood.
Legislative body advises the
King & Exec Cabinet. 150
members (30 women).
Expanding mandate to
propose/amend existing
laws without King’s
consultation.
Al-Sheikh family. 2nd only to
royal family in power. Has
religious authority and supports
the Saud family’s secular
authority. The Grand Mufti and
the speaker of the Shura are Al-
Sheikh family members.
Convened when Nayef
succeeded Sultan as Crown
Prince (‘11) but not when
naming King Salman to succeed
Nayef in ‘12. Prince Talal
resigned in protest.
Head of Shura
Council.
Member of Min.
Foreign Affairs since
‘75.
Majority stake in
Kingdom Holding
Co. Vocal critic of
Gov’t policy
Former Amb. to U.K. & U.S.
Former DG Intell. Dir.
Removed from DPM
role in MoD post ‘09
Chairman of Alleg.
Comm.
Removed as
Pres. of Intel.
Agency ‘14
Religion
Government
Defence
Royal Family
Highest ranking 1st gen. non-Sudairi
faction. If he were to ascend to the throne
(with no powerful sons his ascension is
less threatening to other factions) he would
have a limited independent power base
and consequently be considered beholden
to a key group (likely King Abdullah’s sons
and allies).
Saudi Arabia Game of Thrones
Key players in the looming transfer of power to a new generation of princes
KING ABDUL AZIZ IBN SAUD KING SAUD KING FAISAL K. KHALED KING FAHD KING ABDULLAH
Reigned 21 years 11 years 11 years 7 years 23 years 10 years
’32 ’53 ‘64 ‘75 ‘82 ‘05 ‘15
KING SALMAN
Abdullah bin Abdulaziz
(d. 2015)
Saud bin Abdulaziz
(ousted 1964)
Faisal bin Abdulaziz
(murdered 1975)
Khaled bin Abdulaziz
(d. 1982)
Fahd bin Abdulaziz
(d. 2005)
Sultan bin Abdulaziz
(d. 2011)
Nayef bin Abdulaziz
(d. 2012)
Salman bin Abdulaziz
(crowned 2015)
Talal bin Abdulaziz
Muqrin bin Abdulaziz
Crown Prince
Ahmed bin AbdulazizAbdulaziz
ibn Saud
(d. 1953)
Mohammad bin
Fahd bin Abdulaziz
Miteb bin
Abduallah bin
Abdulaziz
Mishaal bin Abdullah
bin Abdulaziz
Turki bin Abdullah
bin Abdulaziz
Khaled bin Sultan bin
Abdulaziz
Bandar bin Sultan
bin Abdulaziz
Salman bin Sultan
bin Abdulaziz
Sultan bin Salman bin
Abdulaziz
Mohammed bin
Salman bin Abdulaziz
Faisal bin Salman bin
Abdulaziz
Al-Waleed bin Talal
bin Abdulaziz
Khalid bin Talal bin
Abdulaziz
Saud Al-Faisal bin
Abdulaziz
Turki Al-Faisal bin
Abdulaziz
Khaled Al-Faisal
bin Abdulaziz
Mohammed bin
Nayef bin Abdulaziz
Dep. Crown Prince
Mishaal bin Abdulaziz
TSC turns big data into smart data for customers to strategically map, mine and monitor complex business environments, networks of issues, stakeholders, positions, influence and interests.
www.thestakeholdercompany.com | info@thestakeholdercompany.com
TSC accepts no liability for any loss or damage whatsoever arising from reliance on any information given or opinion expressed in this presentation.
1st of gen to reach Dep. Crown Prince.
Signals power shift to the 2nd gen. May
also signal longer term consolidation
of Sudairi power
Appeared to have been
groomed for Dep. Crown Prince
Saudi Arabian National Guard
(appointed by father)
Dominant factions
Sudairi 7 2nd gen.
Strongest kin-based faction of 7 full brothers within the House of
Saud, (“Al Fahd”), all children of Hassa bint Ahmed Al Sudairi
and King Abdulaziz. Only Fahd has ever been King (‘82-’05). 2
have come close, having been appointed Crown Prince, only
to have been outlived by the non-Sudairi King Abdullah
Key issue: the race to survive
Control over the kingdom’s 3
security portfolios continues to be
key to being considered a
dominant faction
King Salman & sons have
continued to assert control over
the sons of Sultan, whose influence
has waned during the illness and
subsequent death of their father
Defence Ministry
Ministry of Interior
Jan30,2015|Sources:opensourcedatamining
Yemen
Iran
Saudi
Arabia
Oman
Iraq
Jordan
Egypt
Sudan
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Israel
Syria
Qatar
UAE
Bahrain
Kuwait
SomaliaThe issue horizon
TheStakeholderCompany2015
1st gen. 2nd gen.
Saud bin Nayef
bin Abdulaziz
Former Gov. of East Prov.
Allegedly replaced (‘13)
for failing to contain
sectarian unrest
Consist of the sons of Abdullah, Salman and Nayef. They depend on
inter-faction relations & alliances including Sudairi groups
(particularly the sons of Fahd and Sultan) and non-Sudairis such as
Faisal’s sons
Mmhd bin Salman has control over the MoD while SANG
remains under Mitib bin Abdullah.
30/1/15: Bandar bin Sultan removed as Sec Gen N’tl Sec
Council and Council abolished. New security body
established to be led by Mmhd bin Nayef, Khalid bin Bandar
relieved as Chief of General Intelligence Presidency
replaced by General Khalid bin Ali bin Abdullah Al-
Humaidan. Reshuffle appears aimed to unify decision
making on security matters under one body.
Gov. of Eastern Province Retained portfolio in ‘15
Cabinet reshuffle.
Significant change in oil
production policy unlikely
given strong consultation
with King’s immediate
circle. Potential successors
are either Prince Abdulaziz
or Aramco CEO Khalid Al-
Falih.
Central power
Rapid ascension to
power. Considered to
have great influence
over King Salman
(father)
1st member from grandson
gen. in succession line Khaled al-Faisal replaced
Mishaal as Gov. of Mecca
Prov. (30/ 1/15)
+37~
Power distribution: lineage, leadership and personal character
30/1/15: Prince Abdulaziz
(King’s son) named
deputy oil minister
There are 33-35 critical ministries and other senior
appointments. 11 are held by members of the royal
family, and 8 by senior princes. 23 are technocrats
who will play a critical role in preserving the
continuity of power and most will remain in office
regardless of how the succession progresses.
30/1/15: 12 public bodies (fields ranging from
energy to education) abolished to streamline
decision-making
Saudi Arabia, the linchpin of regional stability and the country that 1.7 billion Muslims turn towards 5 times daily, promotes that
succession will be: an orderly transfer of power, stable, predictable and business as usual. Yet the death of the Saudi monarch has
brought the challenges facing the country into sharp focus and shows these are hyper-turbulent times both at home and abroad.
On the home front, princely intrigue and tussle over who inherits the kingdom in
a generational shift in power from the Saudi gerontocracy may yet lead to
cracks in the Al Saud edifice. Outside the palace gates, the House of Saud
faces quasi-existential fault lines to which it must either confront, curb or bend
to. A restless unemployed ‘Youth Bulge’, increasingly armed with the ‘idea’ of
the Arab Spring, social media and a sense of unjustness, are faced off against
devout Wahhabism that sustains jihadist ideology, stokes sectarianism and
exposes the monarchy to charges of hypocrisy. With oil supporting 80% of the
budget, cheque book diplomacy may buy social acquiescence for a time but
at a high cost to the economy.
Abroad, the territory looks increasingly uncharted and
volatile. The historic Sunni and Shia fault line has reopened,
virulent new strains of Sunni jihadism have emerged, Saudi-
Iranian proxy struggles spread and half a dozen conflicts
rage. No state nor border seems immune from violent,
potentate shifting change. Set this against a recalibration
of the U.S.- Saudi security for oil pact, and the fight for oil
supremacy vs. shale-oil upstarts. Old status quos can no
longer be counted upon.
Faisal bin
Banda
Replaced by
Faisal bin Bandar
as Gov. of Riyadh
(30/ 1/15)
Several top (comparative liberal)
officials removed from Justice
Ministry and Religious Police
(30/1/15)
Capital Market
Authority
Dr. Azzam bin
Mohammad Al-
Dakhil
Appointed
Minister
(30/1/15)
Replaced by
Abdulrahman bin
Abdulmohsen Al-
Fadhli (30/1/15)
Replaced by Khalid
bin Abdullah Al-Araj
(30/1/15)
Replaced by Adel
bin Aqeel Al-Khatib
(30/1/15)
Dr. Walid bin Mohammad
bin Saleh Al-Samaan
Mohammed Jadaan
Appoint. Head (30/1/15)
Appointed
(30/1/15)
Replaced by Dr.
Majid bin Abdullah
Al-Qusaibi (30/1/15)
Replaced by Sheikh
Saleh bin Abdulaziz
Al AsShaikh (30/1/15)
Remains unclear if change will
impact plan to open stock market
to foreign investors in ‘15
30/1/15: abolished formerly top
decision-making body (since ‘00).
Responsibilities now fall under new
economic ministry and Al-Nami.
Supreme Council
for Petroleum and
Minerals