Running head: accident and casual factor events 1
accident and casual factor events 7Accident and Casual Factor Events
Wesley D. Herron
Waldorf University
Accident And Causal Factor Events
The causal factor and events chart describe a graphical and written description for the time sequence of events contributing the various events related to an accident. The construction of the causal factor and events factor chart helps investigators to conduct an in-depth research and identifying the root cause of accidents. The following are charts showing the various elements involved in event charting:
· Condition- This refers to the distinct state that facilitates event occurrence. a condition may be weather, equipment status, the health status of an employee as well as any other factor affecting an event
· Event-Refers to the point in time described by the occurrence of specific actions.
· Accident- describesthe action, state and even condition where a system is not meeting one or more of its design objectives (Oakley, 2012). This includes real accidents and also near misses. This is the main focus of the analysis or even the evaluation.
· Primary event line- These are the main sequences of occurrence that resulted in the accidents. The primary event line gives the basic nature of an occurrence in a logical progression. However, it does not provide the contributing causes, and it often contains the accident but does not essentially end with an accident event. the primary event line comprises of both conditions and events
· Primary events and conditions- the conditions and events described make up the primary event line.
· Secondary event lines. These are a series of occurrences that lead to primary conditions and events. Secondary event lines enhance the development of the primary event line to show all the facilitating elements of an event. Causal factors are often found in secondary event lines, and they have both the events and conditions.
· Secondary events and conditions- these are conditions and events that make up the secondary event line.
Causal factors
These are key conditions and events that when eliminated could have prevented or reduced an accident and its effects (Oakley, 2012). Causal factors include equipment failure, human error and they include activities such as initiating event for an accident, failed safeguards, and having reasonable safeguards that were not provided.
Items of note
These are undesirable events, and conditions that have been identified in an analysis and they have to be addressed or corrected. However, the events did not contribute to the focus of the accident, and they are shown as separate boxes specifically outside the event chain.
Events and accidents are examined to identify the causes of their event and to decide the moves that must be made to avoid a repeat. It is basic that the accident investigators profoundly investigate into both the events and the conditions ...
Contributors to the frequency of intense climate disasters in asia pacific co...Mario Robusti
The frequency of intense natural disasters increased notably from the 1970s to the 2000s. Around half of these events happen in Asia and Pacific Area. Intense hydrometeorological disasters and climatological disasters accounted for most of the worldwide increase in natural disasters.The Springer.com Open Access Science and Media website publish a new paper about disaster prevention and climate action. This pubblication is an indipendent evalutaion at the Asian Development Bank.
Accident Analysis Models And Methods Guidance For Safety ProfessionalsLeslie Schulte
This document provides an overview of accident analysis models and methods. It discusses three categories of analysis techniques: sequential, epidemiological, and systemic. Sequential techniques view accidents as resulting from time-ordered causal events, but cannot adequately account for organizational and human factors. Epidemiological techniques were developed to consider organizational influences, and view accidents as stemming from latent failures within a system. More recently, systemic techniques have emerged that treat socio-technical systems holistically and focus on the interactions between system components. The document aims to inform readers on different analysis approaches and factors that influence model selection.
A Study of The Relationship Among Parameters of M/X Solar Flares via Associat...CSCJournals
This paper introduces a method to study the relation among parameters that can cause the origin of M/X solar flares. Solar flares, especially flares of types M and X, make the Earth’s atmosphere more ionized and have an effect on radio signals, which can cause disruptions in wireless communications. This situation points out to the need for better identification of the parameters involved in M/X solar flares. The method is based on four categorical parameters and their relations. Relations are demonstrated by association rules which were extracted by the APRIORI algorithm and the most promising rules were filtered by support and confidence metrics. Results of the most promising rules had been compared by application to different periods of the 23rd and the 24th solar cycles.
diurnal temperature range trend over North Carolina and the associated mechan...Sayem Zaman, Ph.D, PE.
This study seeks to investigate the variability and presence of trends in the diurnal surface air temperature range
(DTR) over North Carolina (NC) for the period 1950–2009. The significance trend test and the magnitude of trends were determined using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Theil–Sen approach, respectively.
Statewide significant trends (p b 0.05) of decreasing DTR were found in all seasons and annually during the analysis period. The highest (lowest) temporal DTR trends of magnitude −0.19 (−0.031) °C/decade were found in summer (winter). Potential mechanisms for the presence/absence of trends in DTR have been highlighted. Historical
data sets of the three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover (TCC), and soil moisture) and
the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for
correlation analysis. The DTRs were found to be negatively correlated with the precipitation, TCC, and soil moisture across the state for all the seasons and annual basis. It appears that the moisture components related better to the DTR than to the atmospheric circulation modes.
A Conceptual Model Of People S Vulnerability To FloodsJessica Thompson
1) An improved physically based model of human stability in flood conditions is proposed, accounting for forces like buoyancy, weight, and fluid dynamic forces.
2) The model considers additional factors not fully addressed before, such as the effects of sloping terrain and variations in fluid density.
3) The conceptual model represents the human body as cylinders and assesses stability against slipping and toppling. It identifies stability thresholds for children and adults to define three levels of vulnerability.
This document summarizes the key findings and challenges from a U.S. climate change science workshop. It identifies major questions around climate feedbacks and predictability. Key challenges include uncertainties around climate sensitivity and natural variability. The document calls for improved climate models, observations, and communication of information to decision-makers.
The definition and extraction of actionable anomalous discords, i.e. pattern outliers, is a challenging
problem in data analysis. It raises the crucial issue of identifying criteria that would render a discord
more insightful than another one. In this paper, we propose an approach to address this by
introducing the concept of prominent discord. The core idea behind this new concept is to identify
dependencies among discords of varying lengths. How can we identify a discord that would be
prominent? We propose an ordering relation, that ranks discords, and we seek a set of prominent
discords with respect to this ordering. Our contributions are threefold 1) a formal definition,
ordering relation and methods to derive prominent discords based on Matrix Profile techniques,2)
their evaluation over large contextual climate data, covering 110 years of monthly data, and 3) a
comparison of an exact method based on STOMP and an approximate approach that is based on
SCRIMP++ to compute the prominent discords and study the tradeoff optimality/CPU. The
approach is generic and its pertinence shown over historical climate data.
APPLICATION OF MATRIX PROFILE TECHNIQUES TO DETECT INSIGHTFUL DISCORDS IN CLI...ijscai
This document summarizes a research paper that proposes a new approach to detect prominent discords, or anomalous patterns, in large climate data time series. The approach introduces the concept of a prominent discord, which is the most significant discord found across different window sizes that all start at the same position. It presents methods to compute prominent discords exactly using STOMP or approximately using SCRIMP++. The approach is applied to over 100 years of monthly climate impact runoff data to detect insightful discords. It compares the exact and approximate methods and explores the tradeoff between accuracy and computational efficiency.
Contributors to the frequency of intense climate disasters in asia pacific co...Mario Robusti
The frequency of intense natural disasters increased notably from the 1970s to the 2000s. Around half of these events happen in Asia and Pacific Area. Intense hydrometeorological disasters and climatological disasters accounted for most of the worldwide increase in natural disasters.The Springer.com Open Access Science and Media website publish a new paper about disaster prevention and climate action. This pubblication is an indipendent evalutaion at the Asian Development Bank.
Accident Analysis Models And Methods Guidance For Safety ProfessionalsLeslie Schulte
This document provides an overview of accident analysis models and methods. It discusses three categories of analysis techniques: sequential, epidemiological, and systemic. Sequential techniques view accidents as resulting from time-ordered causal events, but cannot adequately account for organizational and human factors. Epidemiological techniques were developed to consider organizational influences, and view accidents as stemming from latent failures within a system. More recently, systemic techniques have emerged that treat socio-technical systems holistically and focus on the interactions between system components. The document aims to inform readers on different analysis approaches and factors that influence model selection.
A Study of The Relationship Among Parameters of M/X Solar Flares via Associat...CSCJournals
This paper introduces a method to study the relation among parameters that can cause the origin of M/X solar flares. Solar flares, especially flares of types M and X, make the Earth’s atmosphere more ionized and have an effect on radio signals, which can cause disruptions in wireless communications. This situation points out to the need for better identification of the parameters involved in M/X solar flares. The method is based on four categorical parameters and their relations. Relations are demonstrated by association rules which were extracted by the APRIORI algorithm and the most promising rules were filtered by support and confidence metrics. Results of the most promising rules had been compared by application to different periods of the 23rd and the 24th solar cycles.
diurnal temperature range trend over North Carolina and the associated mechan...Sayem Zaman, Ph.D, PE.
This study seeks to investigate the variability and presence of trends in the diurnal surface air temperature range
(DTR) over North Carolina (NC) for the period 1950–2009. The significance trend test and the magnitude of trends were determined using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Theil–Sen approach, respectively.
Statewide significant trends (p b 0.05) of decreasing DTR were found in all seasons and annually during the analysis period. The highest (lowest) temporal DTR trends of magnitude −0.19 (−0.031) °C/decade were found in summer (winter). Potential mechanisms for the presence/absence of trends in DTR have been highlighted. Historical
data sets of the three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover (TCC), and soil moisture) and
the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for
correlation analysis. The DTRs were found to be negatively correlated with the precipitation, TCC, and soil moisture across the state for all the seasons and annual basis. It appears that the moisture components related better to the DTR than to the atmospheric circulation modes.
A Conceptual Model Of People S Vulnerability To FloodsJessica Thompson
1) An improved physically based model of human stability in flood conditions is proposed, accounting for forces like buoyancy, weight, and fluid dynamic forces.
2) The model considers additional factors not fully addressed before, such as the effects of sloping terrain and variations in fluid density.
3) The conceptual model represents the human body as cylinders and assesses stability against slipping and toppling. It identifies stability thresholds for children and adults to define three levels of vulnerability.
This document summarizes the key findings and challenges from a U.S. climate change science workshop. It identifies major questions around climate feedbacks and predictability. Key challenges include uncertainties around climate sensitivity and natural variability. The document calls for improved climate models, observations, and communication of information to decision-makers.
The definition and extraction of actionable anomalous discords, i.e. pattern outliers, is a challenging
problem in data analysis. It raises the crucial issue of identifying criteria that would render a discord
more insightful than another one. In this paper, we propose an approach to address this by
introducing the concept of prominent discord. The core idea behind this new concept is to identify
dependencies among discords of varying lengths. How can we identify a discord that would be
prominent? We propose an ordering relation, that ranks discords, and we seek a set of prominent
discords with respect to this ordering. Our contributions are threefold 1) a formal definition,
ordering relation and methods to derive prominent discords based on Matrix Profile techniques,2)
their evaluation over large contextual climate data, covering 110 years of monthly data, and 3) a
comparison of an exact method based on STOMP and an approximate approach that is based on
SCRIMP++ to compute the prominent discords and study the tradeoff optimality/CPU. The
approach is generic and its pertinence shown over historical climate data.
APPLICATION OF MATRIX PROFILE TECHNIQUES TO DETECT INSIGHTFUL DISCORDS IN CLI...ijscai
This document summarizes a research paper that proposes a new approach to detect prominent discords, or anomalous patterns, in large climate data time series. The approach introduces the concept of a prominent discord, which is the most significant discord found across different window sizes that all start at the same position. It presents methods to compute prominent discords exactly using STOMP or approximately using SCRIMP++. The approach is applied to over 100 years of monthly climate impact runoff data to detect insightful discords. It compares the exact and approximate methods and explores the tradeoff between accuracy and computational efficiency.
This is the paper for our final project in our Numerical Weather Prediction class. For this project, we analyzed model output from a Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM), which is an adaptation of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW). The model output variables analyzed were outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) and precipitation (convective plus non-convective). The goal of this research project was to determine why errors were occurring in the model, and what could be done to correct them. In this paper, we provide some insight into why these errors occurred, particularly errors within the model which equaled or surpassed the overall mean climate error.
This document discusses a term paper presentation on recent developments, challenges, and opportunities related to climate data. It outlines the objectives and significance of studying this topic, and reviews literature on data sparsity in Africa due to declining weather stations, issues with data accessibility, and quality challenges. Recent opportunities include increased data from satellites, reanalysis models, and climate simulations, though data gaps remain an obstacle for climate research and applications in Africa.
This document describes a study that developed an automated classification scheme to explore links between synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and wave climate variables, specifically wave heights, along the east coast of South Africa. The algorithm uses objective functions based on wave heights to guide the classification of circulation patterns into classes that have strong links to observed wave behavior. It identifies three dominant circulation patterns that drive extreme wave events along the KwaZulu-Natal coast, explaining 50-80% of cases. One pattern is present throughout the year, while the others show some seasonality. The patterns agree with qualitative observations of wave climate drivers for the region.
Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in NC USA.pdfSayem Zaman, Ph.D, PE.
The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North
Carolina, United States over the period of 1950–2009. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test, the Theil–Sen
approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann–Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the
significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain,
piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests.
Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the
effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned
procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for
fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual,
spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were
detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and
fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found
about 4 mm/season (−4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend
magnitude varied between −5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found
increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter.
Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in
winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on “trend shift analysis” identified a
significant shift during 1960−70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter
(summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices
concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the Oscillation indices for North Carolina
This document summarizes a study that assessed the potential of different Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for projecting rainfall trends in Kuala Sala, Malaysia. The study used two climate projection models (SDSM and PRECIS) to generate future rainfall projections using the A2, B2 and A1B emission scenarios. The B2 scenario produced rainfall trends most similar to historical patterns, followed by the A2 scenario. The A1B scenario was found to underestimate or overestimate rainfall. Overall, annual rainfall was predicted to increase the most under the B2 scenario by 2050. Different emissions produced diverse rainfall trends due to varying levels of greenhouse gases.
A study of the causes of climate change - a master’s thesis in philosophy of ...Piotr Gawlicki
A master’s thesis in philosophy of science on the causal explanation of climate change.
Abstract: Climate change grew into a major social topic of the recent two decades. The findings of climatologists which didn’t use to draw much attention of the public opinion only thirty years ago, now engage various groups in heated and often emotional discussions; policy-makers around the world, natural and social scientists of almost all disciplines, environmental activists, philosophers – all express their views on the “causes of climate change”.
This paper addresses a small slice of the humongous story that grew around the scientific inquiry into the climate. Namely, the scientific explana- tion of climate change. By analysing the explanatory methodology of the 4th report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a com- pendium on current knowledge about climate change, I argue that climatolo- gists make unfounded claims as to the causes of global warming. Specifically, I argue that the current methodology of reliance on global circulation models (GCMs) is unable to identify all the causes of climate change. Consequently, I find the celebrated “causes of climate change” to be nothing more than pro- ducts of the best available climate change explanation. I shall also specify the features of this kind of explanation, and finally suggest some alternative approaches to explanation. All in hope that the discussion here presented might illuminate the already muddled topic of climate change explanation.
This document discusses a method for classifying atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) based on their links to extreme wave events. It proposes using an entropy measure to objectively evaluate the quality of CP classifications and determine the optimal number of CP classes. The method is applied to wave data from Durban, South Africa to classify CPs driving extreme wave heights over 3.5m. The results indicate that 15-20 CP classes are needed for a good quality classification but one persistent class explains a large proportion of extreme events regardless of the number of classes.
This document summarizes research on perceptions of severe weather in Geneva, New York following a flash flood in nearby Penn Yan. The research found that while participants followed weather reports and emergency information, they generally did not have personal emergency plans. The document discusses the scientific causes of the Penn Yan flood and argues that emergency management requires an interdisciplinary approach considering social, economic, and political factors, not just science. Previous case studies showed decisions were influenced more by these other factors than science alone.
The document summarizes a literature review on adaptation of interconnected infrastructures to climate change from a socio-technical systems perspective. It finds that most papers focus on specific geographic areas and impacts on infrastructure types like energy, transport, and water. While many recognize infrastructure interdependencies, modeling of adaptation measures is lacking. The literature enables exploration of adaptation strategies expected in coming years.
- Tornadoes in the US have not increased in frequency, intensity or damage since 1950, and may have declined slightly. Floods and hurricanes also show no increasing trends in frequency or intensity over similar periods. Globally, weather-related economic losses have decreased as a proportion of GDP since 1990 despite greater development in vulnerable areas. While human-caused climate change poses risks, the data do not support claims of increasing trends in extreme weather events attributed to climate change. Projections suggest extremes may increase in the future, but detection of impacts on weather events will be difficult for many decades.
global disaster trends- emerging risks of disaster- climate changeNitin Vadhel
Disaster risk trends are a measure of the sustainability of development.
Trend analysis helps us to understand patterns of disaster risk and, consequently, whether disaster risk reduction is being effective.
Using disaster trends to inform policy and practice requires a good understanding of the limits of these trends.
The pattern the trend displays (rising, falling or fluctuating) is only as real as the amount, quality and reliability of the data used. For instance, patterns of disaster losses may actually reflect a number of factors unrelated to disaster risk, including the time period over which they are measured and improvements in disaster risk reporting.
In order to account for these problems, analysts determine the statistical significance of the trend.
Changes of Temperature Field in Storms Under Influence of Cold SurgeAI Publications
This study goal is to explore changes of the temperature field during storms operating in the East Sea under the influence of cold air over time. Studies on wave–current interaction have focused mainly on tropical cyclones, while less attention has been paid to other weather systems (Gong et al, 2018). Strong winds in coastal areas can cause dramatic changes in water level and currents, which influence wave height and direction, thereby increasing hazardous conditions (Sun et al, 2018). Wave parameters in the outer region of the typhoon are more sensitive to the current but less sensitive to the water elevation than those in the inner region of the typhoon (Hsiao et al, 2020). The results show that the temperature field in the storm under the influence of cold air has an asymmetrical distribution around the center.
1) The document discusses several articles that seek to incorporate future climate events into the conflict literature but find limited evidence of a direct causal link between climate change and violent conflict.
2) The articles suggest climate change could influence actors' decisions and that governments may be unprepared for environmental disasters and mass migration. However, predicting specific conflicts is difficult given limitations of climate models.
3) While large-scale war is unlikely, the articles argue climate change could compromise human security through impacts on basic rights and state services, with developing countries particularly vulnerable. More research is needed to better understand these impacts and how to strengthen adaptation.
Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts.pdfWaqarUl2
This study examines the risk of concurrent or "spatially compound" droughts across ten global regions under future climate change. Using large ensemble climate simulations, the study finds:
1) The probability of 3 or more regions experiencing drought at the same time (compound droughts) increases by about 40% in mid-century and 60% late-century, relative to historical levels.
2) The severity and spatial extent of compound droughts is also projected to increase significantly. The risk of "severe" compound droughts grows nearly ninefold by late-century.
3) ENSO (El Nino and La Nina) events are the dominant driver of historical compound droughts. A projected 22% increase
1) The document summarizes evidence that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are driving observed increases in global temperatures. It discusses the complex, interdisciplinary nature of climate change research and refutes claims that the field is motivated by funding or politics.
2) Key aspects of Earth's climate system are described, including the greenhouse effect which makes the planet habitable. The role of human emissions of greenhouse gases in increasing surface temperatures is explained, though uncertainties remain about future impacts.
3) The skepticism expressed in a recent editorial by Spier is addressed. While skepticism can be valuable, the evidence indicates Spier's specific doubts regarding temperature data and ice core records are unwarranted.
Smart Grid Electricity System Planning Post-Superstorm SandyRyan Collins
The document discusses focus groups conducted with energy stakeholders in New York, Massachusetts, and Vermont after Superstorm Sandy to examine how the storm impacted perspectives on climate change adaptation and mitigation. The analysis found that discussions in the most impacted state of New York focused most heavily on climate adaptation, while conversations in the least impacted state of Vermont focused more on mitigation. Massachusetts stakeholders discussed adaptation and mitigation more equally. The severity of a climate event's impacts on a location influenced whether stakeholders prioritized adapting energy systems to future climate risks or transitioning to low-carbon energy as a form of mitigation.
Developing social vulnerability index for newcastle extreme temperature riskAlex Nwoko
This vocational dissertation was undertaken in collaboration with Newcastle City Council. This study was aimed at developing a quantitative social vulnerability indices for assessing extreme temperature vulnerability in Newcastle. This report is expected to help in identifying localized community-level social vulnerability determinants for emergency planning and response. The first objective of this study was to determine the social indicators which could contribute to increased losses on well-being. First, drawing theoretical justification from the literature and consultation with experts at Newcastle City Council, an initial set of indicators was collected from census data for 910 Output Areas (OAs) in Newcastle. These datasets were used to quantify to what extent their availability or lack can contribute to an overall increase or decrease in vulnerability in different parts of Newcastle. The summary of social vulnerability proxies developed in this study is presented in Chapter 3.
The second part of the analysis combines statistics and GIS to compare the relationship between sensitivity, adaptive capacity and enhanced exposure sub-indices and their components. The result of this investigation indicates that there is a significant statistical relationship between sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and also between sensitivity and enhanced exposure. The spatial relationship was tested using Getis Ord Gi* hotspot analysis and Ripley's K statistic, which found a significant clustering of vulnerability driven by both “sensitivity”, “adaptive capacity” and “enhanced exposure”. This study has identified the most vulnerable output areas in Newcastle in these wards; Walker, Elswick, Jesmond, Newburn, and Gosforth. From these observations, this report advocates the inclusion of social indicators in vulnerability analysis to reveal the marginalized population otherwise not acknowledged.
Finally, a proximity assessment of health and emergency services was carried out to reveal the southern cluster of emergency facilities and inefficient coverage of ambulance services. The identified accessibility-deprived output areas are located in the wards on the Northern parts including; Woolsington, Parkland, Fawdon, East and West Gosforth, and Castle.
This report summarizes by noting that the new framework is only intended to inform the periodic review of emergency planning and response strategies in Newcastle, suggesting an adoption of spatially detailed data to improve quantitative understanding of the spatial distribution of extreme temperature-related social vulnerability. It finally recommends an improvement in institutional adaptive capacity to handle emergencies in Newcastle.
International Journal of Engineering Research and Development (IJERD)IJERD Editor
journal publishing, how to publish research paper, Call For research paper, international journal, publishing a paper, IJERD, journal of science and technology, how to get a research paper published, publishing a paper, publishing of journal, publishing of research paper, reserach and review articles, IJERD Journal, How to publish your research paper, publish research paper, open access engineering journal, Engineering journal, Mathemetics journal, Physics journal, Chemistry journal, Computer Engineering, Computer Science journal, how to submit your paper, peer reviw journal, indexed journal, reserach and review articles, engineering journal, www.ijerd.com, research journals,
yahoo journals, bing journals, International Journal of Engineering Research and Development, google journals, hard copy of journal
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland
The material for this moduleweek has led us from Europe, through fi.docxSUBHI7
The material for this module/week has led us from Europe, through first contacts, to the establishment of a solid English presence in the Americas. After reading and thinking about the Reading & Study materials for this module/week, what strikes you most about the founding of the American colonies? Did anything surprise you? Did your reading challenge your ideas or visions about colonial America?
.
The media informs many viewers of deviance and crime, victims of cri.docxSUBHI7
The media informs many viewers of deviance and crime, victims of crime, and justice in society. Consider and describe the following:
Where do you get your information about:
Deviant behavior
Crime
Victims of crime
Justice for victims
Describe your perception of
Deviant behavior
What behavior is deviant according to your values?
Crime
What do you believe is the root or cause of crime?
What types of crimes do you believe happen most?
Who do you believe commits crime?
Victims of crime
Who do you believe is likely to be a victim?
Have you ever been fearful of a crime occurring to you or your family?
What do you believe about victims that you hear about?
Justice for victims
How do you see justice handled in our society?
What form of punishment do you see as being effective or ineffective?
Did you learn anything specific from the textbook that has changed your perception? What did you learn and which perception did it change?
Write a 500 or more word paper that addresses the above questions.
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approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann–Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the
significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain,
piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests.
Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the
effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned
procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for
fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual,
spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were
detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and
fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found
about 4 mm/season (−4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend
magnitude varied between −5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found
increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter.
Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in
winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on “trend shift analysis” identified a
significant shift during 1960−70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter
(summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices
concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the Oscillation indices for North Carolina
This document summarizes a study that assessed the potential of different Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for projecting rainfall trends in Kuala Sala, Malaysia. The study used two climate projection models (SDSM and PRECIS) to generate future rainfall projections using the A2, B2 and A1B emission scenarios. The B2 scenario produced rainfall trends most similar to historical patterns, followed by the A2 scenario. The A1B scenario was found to underestimate or overestimate rainfall. Overall, annual rainfall was predicted to increase the most under the B2 scenario by 2050. Different emissions produced diverse rainfall trends due to varying levels of greenhouse gases.
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Abstract: Climate change grew into a major social topic of the recent two decades. The findings of climatologists which didn’t use to draw much attention of the public opinion only thirty years ago, now engage various groups in heated and often emotional discussions; policy-makers around the world, natural and social scientists of almost all disciplines, environmental activists, philosophers – all express their views on the “causes of climate change”.
This paper addresses a small slice of the humongous story that grew around the scientific inquiry into the climate. Namely, the scientific explana- tion of climate change. By analysing the explanatory methodology of the 4th report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a com- pendium on current knowledge about climate change, I argue that climatolo- gists make unfounded claims as to the causes of global warming. Specifically, I argue that the current methodology of reliance on global circulation models (GCMs) is unable to identify all the causes of climate change. Consequently, I find the celebrated “causes of climate change” to be nothing more than pro- ducts of the best available climate change explanation. I shall also specify the features of this kind of explanation, and finally suggest some alternative approaches to explanation. All in hope that the discussion here presented might illuminate the already muddled topic of climate change explanation.
This document discusses a method for classifying atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) based on their links to extreme wave events. It proposes using an entropy measure to objectively evaluate the quality of CP classifications and determine the optimal number of CP classes. The method is applied to wave data from Durban, South Africa to classify CPs driving extreme wave heights over 3.5m. The results indicate that 15-20 CP classes are needed for a good quality classification but one persistent class explains a large proportion of extreme events regardless of the number of classes.
This document summarizes research on perceptions of severe weather in Geneva, New York following a flash flood in nearby Penn Yan. The research found that while participants followed weather reports and emergency information, they generally did not have personal emergency plans. The document discusses the scientific causes of the Penn Yan flood and argues that emergency management requires an interdisciplinary approach considering social, economic, and political factors, not just science. Previous case studies showed decisions were influenced more by these other factors than science alone.
The document summarizes a literature review on adaptation of interconnected infrastructures to climate change from a socio-technical systems perspective. It finds that most papers focus on specific geographic areas and impacts on infrastructure types like energy, transport, and water. While many recognize infrastructure interdependencies, modeling of adaptation measures is lacking. The literature enables exploration of adaptation strategies expected in coming years.
- Tornadoes in the US have not increased in frequency, intensity or damage since 1950, and may have declined slightly. Floods and hurricanes also show no increasing trends in frequency or intensity over similar periods. Globally, weather-related economic losses have decreased as a proportion of GDP since 1990 despite greater development in vulnerable areas. While human-caused climate change poses risks, the data do not support claims of increasing trends in extreme weather events attributed to climate change. Projections suggest extremes may increase in the future, but detection of impacts on weather events will be difficult for many decades.
global disaster trends- emerging risks of disaster- climate changeNitin Vadhel
Disaster risk trends are a measure of the sustainability of development.
Trend analysis helps us to understand patterns of disaster risk and, consequently, whether disaster risk reduction is being effective.
Using disaster trends to inform policy and practice requires a good understanding of the limits of these trends.
The pattern the trend displays (rising, falling or fluctuating) is only as real as the amount, quality and reliability of the data used. For instance, patterns of disaster losses may actually reflect a number of factors unrelated to disaster risk, including the time period over which they are measured and improvements in disaster risk reporting.
In order to account for these problems, analysts determine the statistical significance of the trend.
Changes of Temperature Field in Storms Under Influence of Cold SurgeAI Publications
This study goal is to explore changes of the temperature field during storms operating in the East Sea under the influence of cold air over time. Studies on wave–current interaction have focused mainly on tropical cyclones, while less attention has been paid to other weather systems (Gong et al, 2018). Strong winds in coastal areas can cause dramatic changes in water level and currents, which influence wave height and direction, thereby increasing hazardous conditions (Sun et al, 2018). Wave parameters in the outer region of the typhoon are more sensitive to the current but less sensitive to the water elevation than those in the inner region of the typhoon (Hsiao et al, 2020). The results show that the temperature field in the storm under the influence of cold air has an asymmetrical distribution around the center.
1) The document discusses several articles that seek to incorporate future climate events into the conflict literature but find limited evidence of a direct causal link between climate change and violent conflict.
2) The articles suggest climate change could influence actors' decisions and that governments may be unprepared for environmental disasters and mass migration. However, predicting specific conflicts is difficult given limitations of climate models.
3) While large-scale war is unlikely, the articles argue climate change could compromise human security through impacts on basic rights and state services, with developing countries particularly vulnerable. More research is needed to better understand these impacts and how to strengthen adaptation.
Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts.pdfWaqarUl2
This study examines the risk of concurrent or "spatially compound" droughts across ten global regions under future climate change. Using large ensemble climate simulations, the study finds:
1) The probability of 3 or more regions experiencing drought at the same time (compound droughts) increases by about 40% in mid-century and 60% late-century, relative to historical levels.
2) The severity and spatial extent of compound droughts is also projected to increase significantly. The risk of "severe" compound droughts grows nearly ninefold by late-century.
3) ENSO (El Nino and La Nina) events are the dominant driver of historical compound droughts. A projected 22% increase
1) The document summarizes evidence that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are driving observed increases in global temperatures. It discusses the complex, interdisciplinary nature of climate change research and refutes claims that the field is motivated by funding or politics.
2) Key aspects of Earth's climate system are described, including the greenhouse effect which makes the planet habitable. The role of human emissions of greenhouse gases in increasing surface temperatures is explained, though uncertainties remain about future impacts.
3) The skepticism expressed in a recent editorial by Spier is addressed. While skepticism can be valuable, the evidence indicates Spier's specific doubts regarding temperature data and ice core records are unwarranted.
Smart Grid Electricity System Planning Post-Superstorm SandyRyan Collins
The document discusses focus groups conducted with energy stakeholders in New York, Massachusetts, and Vermont after Superstorm Sandy to examine how the storm impacted perspectives on climate change adaptation and mitigation. The analysis found that discussions in the most impacted state of New York focused most heavily on climate adaptation, while conversations in the least impacted state of Vermont focused more on mitigation. Massachusetts stakeholders discussed adaptation and mitigation more equally. The severity of a climate event's impacts on a location influenced whether stakeholders prioritized adapting energy systems to future climate risks or transitioning to low-carbon energy as a form of mitigation.
Developing social vulnerability index for newcastle extreme temperature riskAlex Nwoko
This vocational dissertation was undertaken in collaboration with Newcastle City Council. This study was aimed at developing a quantitative social vulnerability indices for assessing extreme temperature vulnerability in Newcastle. This report is expected to help in identifying localized community-level social vulnerability determinants for emergency planning and response. The first objective of this study was to determine the social indicators which could contribute to increased losses on well-being. First, drawing theoretical justification from the literature and consultation with experts at Newcastle City Council, an initial set of indicators was collected from census data for 910 Output Areas (OAs) in Newcastle. These datasets were used to quantify to what extent their availability or lack can contribute to an overall increase or decrease in vulnerability in different parts of Newcastle. The summary of social vulnerability proxies developed in this study is presented in Chapter 3.
The second part of the analysis combines statistics and GIS to compare the relationship between sensitivity, adaptive capacity and enhanced exposure sub-indices and their components. The result of this investigation indicates that there is a significant statistical relationship between sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and also between sensitivity and enhanced exposure. The spatial relationship was tested using Getis Ord Gi* hotspot analysis and Ripley's K statistic, which found a significant clustering of vulnerability driven by both “sensitivity”, “adaptive capacity” and “enhanced exposure”. This study has identified the most vulnerable output areas in Newcastle in these wards; Walker, Elswick, Jesmond, Newburn, and Gosforth. From these observations, this report advocates the inclusion of social indicators in vulnerability analysis to reveal the marginalized population otherwise not acknowledged.
Finally, a proximity assessment of health and emergency services was carried out to reveal the southern cluster of emergency facilities and inefficient coverage of ambulance services. The identified accessibility-deprived output areas are located in the wards on the Northern parts including; Woolsington, Parkland, Fawdon, East and West Gosforth, and Castle.
This report summarizes by noting that the new framework is only intended to inform the periodic review of emergency planning and response strategies in Newcastle, suggesting an adoption of spatially detailed data to improve quantitative understanding of the spatial distribution of extreme temperature-related social vulnerability. It finally recommends an improvement in institutional adaptive capacity to handle emergencies in Newcastle.
International Journal of Engineering Research and Development (IJERD)IJERD Editor
journal publishing, how to publish research paper, Call For research paper, international journal, publishing a paper, IJERD, journal of science and technology, how to get a research paper published, publishing a paper, publishing of journal, publishing of research paper, reserach and review articles, IJERD Journal, How to publish your research paper, publish research paper, open access engineering journal, Engineering journal, Mathemetics journal, Physics journal, Chemistry journal, Computer Engineering, Computer Science journal, how to submit your paper, peer reviw journal, indexed journal, reserach and review articles, engineering journal, www.ijerd.com, research journals,
yahoo journals, bing journals, International Journal of Engineering Research and Development, google journals, hard copy of journal
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland
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The Mini Project Task
Instructions: Read about validity and reliability starting on page 324 of the textbook.
Your assignment is to create a 5-page paper addressing the following questions:
a. What is the difference between reliability and validity? Which is more important? Why?
b. What are the different ways of assessing reliability?
c. What are the different ways of assessing validity?
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Page 324
In general, reliabilities less than 0.60 are considered to be poor, those in the 0.70 range, acceptable, and those over 0.80 good. Thus, the internal consistency reliability of the measures used in this study can be considered to be acceptable for the job enrichment measure and good for the other measures.
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A sample of the result obtained for the Cronbach’s alpha test for job enrichment, together with instructions on how it is obtained, is shown in Output 11.3.
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Question 1
10 out of 10 points
A business that selects a differentiation strategy would ________.
Question 2
10 out of 10 points
________ information is information that directly pertains both to the context and to the subject.
Question 3
10 out of 10 points
In a database, a table, which is a group of similar rows, is also called a ________.
Question 4
10 out of 10 points
The ________ group's purpose is to protect information assets by establishing standards and management practices and policies.
Question 5
10 out of 10 points
________ is a suite of software applications that consolidates existing systems by providing layers of software that connect applications together.
Question 6
10 out of 10 points
Normal processing procedures for system users are ________.
Question 7
10 out of 10 points
Which of the following is an open-source operating system?
Question 8
10 out of 10 points
Which of the following uses an individual's personal physical characteristics such as fingerprints, facial features, and retinal scans for verification purposes?
Question 9
10 out of 10 points
________ is the dynamic social media process of employing users to participate in product design or product redesign.
Question 10
10 out of 10 points
Each stage of the value chain not only adds value to the product but also ________.
Question 11
10 out of 10 points
One of the important functions of a DBMS is to provide the necessary tools for ________.
Question 12
10 out of 10 points
Which of the following is true of a VPN (virtual private network)?
Question 13
10 out of 10 points
Which of the following departments in an organization is supported by information systems applications such as recruitment and compensation?
Question 14
10 out of 10 points
Which of the following statements is true about cloud services?
Question 15
10 out of 10 points
The first phase in the customer life cycle involves ________.
Question 16
10 out of 10 points
Which of the following is a technical safeguard against security threats?
Question 17
10 out of 10 points
An internal information system built using Web services ________.
Question 18
10 out of 10 points
The two strength factors that relate to all three competitive forces are ________ and customer loyalty.
Question 19
10 out of 10 points
Which of the following is true of Web services?
Question 20
10 out of 10 points
With HTTPS, data are encrypted using a protocol called the ________.
Question 21
10 out of 10 points
Why is it important for business professionals to take an active role in developing and managing information systems?
Question 22
0 out of 10 points
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Question 23
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Formal Essay #3: Reporting Information/The Expository Essay
Expository writing is a staple of academic writing. Throughout your academic and professional career, you will be called on to write hundreds of expository articles, reports and essays. A thorough knowledge of this writing form will hold you in good stead all through your career.
What is Expository Writing?
‘Expository’ is a synonym of ‘explanatory’. An expository essay is a piece of writing that explains or informs. It should be based on fact and free of the writer’s prejudices. Opinion is often expressed, but only if it is backed by fact. For example, if someone asked you to write an essay on the causes of World War II, you would write about Germany’s losses in World War I, the Treaty of Versailles, the fall of the Weimar Republic, and the rise of Hitler led Nazism. In other words, everything would be based on verifiable fact.
The expository writing process centers on four activities:
Generate a rough idea or hypothesis.
Find evidence to back up this idea.
Expound on the idea.
Present an argument to back up the idea.
Thus, if you were to say that the Treaty of Versailles was the chief cause of World War II, you would first talk about the conditions of the Treaty of Versailles, the financial condition of Germany after WWI, the ineffectiveness of the Weimar Republic, and how they all led to the rise of Nazism.
Structurally, a piece of expository writing has the following components:
An
introduction
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The
main body
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A
conclusion
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Thus, the central thrust of expository writing should be to build towards proving an argument, fact by fact, piece of evidence by piece of evidence. You will use expository writing a lot throughout your academic life. Most essays that you write in college will be expository in nature. Most writing that you will do in your professional life will involve a lot of expository content as well. In other words, sharpening up this skill will serve you well throughout your life.
Required Essay Format:
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Many organizations have established policies to remedy discrimination when hiring women and minorities. Discuss whether you feel that affirmative action programs, reverse discrimination, and criteria of comparable worth are appropriate forms of remedy.
You should conduct research on this topic before making your posts.
Using the textbook, course materials, and Web resources, research affirmative action, reverse discrimination, and comparable worth and answer the following questions:
Do you feel that these concepts are appropriate forms of remedy in the workplace? Explain.
What else do you think could be done to eliminate discrimination in the workplace?
You must use at least one credible source from either the Library's full-text database or the Web. Include your reference(s) that you used in APA format with your Discussion Board post. Post a new topic to the Discussion Board that contains your answers to the questions, and respond to 2 other students' posts on the Discussion Board. Be sure to explain to them why you agree or disagree with their arguments.
Your submitted assignment (
60 points
) should include the following:
40 Points Your Discussion Board topic containing your responses to the questions and your listed reference(s) in APA format
20 Points Your responses to two other students' Discussion Board posts
In your own words, please post a response to the Discussion Board and comment on other postings. You will be graded on the quality of your postings.
Response to Classmates posts:
Classmate #1 post:
Attempt at Eliminating Discrimination
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Describe the historical pattern of growth of the worldwide human population since our origin. Include in this historic overview the changes that have happened technologically, medically, culturally and nutritionally to result in major population changes over time. Relate the growth of the human population to our ecological footprint and explain the idea of limits to population growth known as the carrying capacity. Relative to carrying capacity, what may result from unbridled continued growth of our population? How does the size of the human population contribute to environmental degradation? Why must we take the human population size into account when we attempt to develop environmental restoration projects?
Assignment 2 Grading Criteria
Maximum Points
Quality of initial posting:
Initial posting should reveal a solid understanding of all aspects of the task; use factual and relevant information;
and
demonstratefull development of concepts.
80
Connections and higher order thinking:
Multiple connections should be demonstrated showing a clear understanding of the material with clear and correct examples.
40
Reference to supporting readings:
Refer to and properly cite (i.e., APA) either course and/or outside readings.
40
Language and Grammar:
There should be no spelling, structure, or grammatical errors in any posting. Writing should be clear and organized.
40
Total:
200
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II bianco e dolce cigno
, or John Farmer�s
Fair Phyllis
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.
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analyze the transformations that have taken place over the course of a decade.
The complex relationship between human activities and the environment has been the focus
of extensive research and worry. As the global community grapples with swift urbanization,
population expansion, and economic progress, the effects on natural ecosystems are becoming
more evident. A crucial element of this impact is the alteration of vegetation cover, which plays a
significant role in maintaining the ecological equilibrium of our planet.Land serves as the foundation for all human activities and provides the necessary materials for
these activities. As the most crucial natural resource, its utilization by humans results in different
'Land uses,' which are determined by both human activities and the physical characteristics of the
land.
The utilization of land is impacted by human needs and environmental factors. In countries
like India, rapid population growth and the emphasis on extensive resource exploitation can lead
to significant land degradation, adversely affecting the region's land cover.
Therefore, human intervention has significantly influenced land use patterns over many
centuries, evolving its structure over time and space. In the present era, these changes have
accelerated due to factors such as agriculture and urbanization. Information regarding land use and
cover is essential for various planning and management tasks related to the Earth's surface,
providing crucial environmental data for scientific, resource management, policy purposes, and
diverse human activities.
Accurate understanding of land use and cover is imperative for the development planning
of any area. Consequently, a wide range of professionals, including earth system scientists, land
and water managers, and urban planners, are interested in obtaining data on land use and cover
changes, conversion trends, and other related patterns. The spatial dimensions of land use and
cover support policymakers and scientists in making well-informed decisions, as alterations in
these patterns indicate shifts in economic and social conditions. Monitoring such changes with the
help of Advanced technologies like Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems is
crucial for coordinated efforts across different administrative levels. Advanced technologies like
Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems
9
Changes in vegetation cover refer to variations in the distribution, composition, and overall
structure of plant communities across different temporal and spatial scales. These changes can
occur natural.
How to Fix the Import Error in the Odoo 17Celine George
An import error occurs when a program fails to import a module or library, disrupting its execution. In languages like Python, this issue arises when the specified module cannot be found or accessed, hindering the program's functionality. Resolving import errors is crucial for maintaining smooth software operation and uninterrupted development processes.
A review of the growth of the Israel Genealogy Research Association Database Collection for the last 12 months. Our collection is now passed the 3 million mark and still growing. See which archives have contributed the most. See the different types of records we have, and which years have had records added. You can also see what we have for the future.
This slide is special for master students (MIBS & MIFB) in UUM. Also useful for readers who are interested in the topic of contemporary Islamic banking.
Leveraging Generative AI to Drive Nonprofit InnovationTechSoup
In this webinar, participants learned how to utilize Generative AI to streamline operations and elevate member engagement. Amazon Web Service experts provided a customer specific use cases and dived into low/no-code tools that are quick and easy to deploy through Amazon Web Service (AWS.)
Chapter wise All Notes of First year Basic Civil Engineering.pptxDenish Jangid
Chapter wise All Notes of First year Basic Civil Engineering
Syllabus
Chapter-1
Introduction to objective, scope and outcome the subject
Chapter 2
Introduction: Scope and Specialization of Civil Engineering, Role of civil Engineer in Society, Impact of infrastructural development on economy of country.
Chapter 3
Surveying: Object Principles & Types of Surveying; Site Plans, Plans & Maps; Scales & Unit of different Measurements.
Linear Measurements: Instruments used. Linear Measurement by Tape, Ranging out Survey Lines and overcoming Obstructions; Measurements on sloping ground; Tape corrections, conventional symbols. Angular Measurements: Instruments used; Introduction to Compass Surveying, Bearings and Longitude & Latitude of a Line, Introduction to total station.
Levelling: Instrument used Object of levelling, Methods of levelling in brief, and Contour maps.
Chapter 4
Buildings: Selection of site for Buildings, Layout of Building Plan, Types of buildings, Plinth area, carpet area, floor space index, Introduction to building byelaws, concept of sun light & ventilation. Components of Buildings & their functions, Basic concept of R.C.C., Introduction to types of foundation
Chapter 5
Transportation: Introduction to Transportation Engineering; Traffic and Road Safety: Types and Characteristics of Various Modes of Transportation; Various Road Traffic Signs, Causes of Accidents and Road Safety Measures.
Chapter 6
Environmental Engineering: Environmental Pollution, Environmental Acts and Regulations, Functional Concepts of Ecology, Basics of Species, Biodiversity, Ecosystem, Hydrological Cycle; Chemical Cycles: Carbon, Nitrogen & Phosphorus; Energy Flow in Ecosystems.
Water Pollution: Water Quality standards, Introduction to Treatment & Disposal of Waste Water. Reuse and Saving of Water, Rain Water Harvesting. Solid Waste Management: Classification of Solid Waste, Collection, Transportation and Disposal of Solid. Recycling of Solid Waste: Energy Recovery, Sanitary Landfill, On-Site Sanitation. Air & Noise Pollution: Primary and Secondary air pollutants, Harmful effects of Air Pollution, Control of Air Pollution. . Noise Pollution Harmful Effects of noise pollution, control of noise pollution, Global warming & Climate Change, Ozone depletion, Greenhouse effect
Text Books:
1. Palancharmy, Basic Civil Engineering, McGraw Hill publishers.
2. Satheesh Gopi, Basic Civil Engineering, Pearson Publishers.
3. Ketki Rangwala Dalal, Essentials of Civil Engineering, Charotar Publishing House.
4. BCP, Surveying volume 1
Running head accident and casual factor events1accident and ca.docx
1. Running head: accident and casual factor events 1
accident and casual factor events 7Accident and Casual
Factor Events
Wesley D. Herron
Waldorf University
Accident And Causal Factor Events
The causal factor and events chart describe a graphical and
written description for the time sequence of events contributing
the various events related to an accident. The construction of
the causal factor and events factor chart helps investigators to
conduct an in-depth research and identifying the root cause of
accidents. The following are charts showing the various
elements involved in event charting:
· Condition- This refers to the distinct state that facilitates
event occurrence. a condition may be weather, equipment
status, the health status of an employee as well as any other
2. factor affecting an event
· Event-Refers to the point in time described by the occurrence
of specific actions.
· Accident- describesthe action, state and even condition where
a system is not meeting one or more of its design objectives
(Oakley, 2012). This includes real accidents and also near
misses. This is the main focus of the analysis or even the
evaluation.
· Primary event line- These are the main sequences of
occurrence that resulted in the accidents. The primary event line
gives the basic nature of an occurrence in a logical progression.
However, it does not provide the contributing causes, and it
often contains the accident but does not essentially end with an
accident event. the primary event line comprises of both
conditions and events
· Primary events and conditions- the conditions and events
described make up the primary event line.
· Secondary event lines. These are a series of occurrences that
lead to primary conditions and events. Secondary event lines
enhance the development of the primary event line to show all
the facilitating elements of an event. Causal factors are often
found in secondary event lines, and they have both the events
and conditions.
· Secondary events and conditions- these are conditions and
events that make up the secondary event line.
3. Causal factors
These are key conditions and events that when eliminated could
have prevented or reduced an accident and its effects (Oakley,
2012). Causal factors include equipment failure, human error
and they include activities such as initiating event for an
accident, failed safeguards, and having reasonable safeguards
that were not provided.
Items of note
These are undesirable events, and conditions that have been
identified in an analysis and they have to be addressed or
corrected. However, the events did not contribute to the focus
of the accident, and they are shown as separate boxes
specifically outside the event chain.
Events and accidents are examined to identify the causes of
their event and to decide the moves that must be made to avoid
a repeat. It is basic that the accident investigators profoundly
investigate into both the events and the conditions that make
risky circumstances. Furthermore, the managerial control
systems that let them grow with the goal that the root mischance
causes can be recognized. Recognizable proof of these root
causes requires understanding the collaboration of events and
causal factors through an ordered chain of movement beginning
with a starting occasion through to the last misfortune
4. delivering the event. Vital factors in accident events have to be
investigated to connect the root causes with the happenings of
accidents and the existing conditions.
Causal Factors Analysis is an imperative segment of the
accident examination techniques. It is developed as a stand-
alone strategy and more intense when connected with different
systems found in the Management Oversight and Risk tree
program (Oakley, 2012). ECFA fills three fundamental needs in
examinations. First, it helps the examination of causal chains
and occasion successions. Second it gives a structure to
coordinating examination discoveries, and finally, it helps
communication both amid and on the fulfillment of the
examination.
References
Oakley, J. S. (2012). Accident investigation techniques: Basic
5. theories, analytical methods, and applications (2nd ed.). Des
Plaines, IL: American Society of Safety Engineers.
Spatial Redistribution of U.S. Tornado Activity between 1954
and 2013
ERNEST AGEE AND JENNIFER LARSON
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences,
Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
SAMUEL CHILDS
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University,
Fort Collins, Colorado
ALEXANDRA MARMO
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences,
Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
(Manuscript received 25 November 2015, in final form 18 May
2016)
ABSTRACT
Climate change over the past several decades prompted this
preliminary investigation into the possible
effects of global warming on the climatological behavior of
U.S. tornadoes for the domain bounded by 308–
508N and 808–1058W. On the basis of a warming trend over the
past 30 years, the modern tornado record
6. can be divided into a cold ‘‘Period I’’ from 1954 to 1983 and a
subsequent 30-year warm ‘‘Period II’’ from
1984 to 2013. Tornado counts and days for (E)F1–(E)F5,
significant, and the most violent tornadoes
across a 2.58 3 2.58 gridded domain indicate a general decrease
in tornado activity from Period I to Period
II concentrated in Texas/Oklahoma and increases concentrated
in Tennessee/Alabama. These changes
show a new geographical distribution of tornado activity for
Period II when compared with Period I.
Statistical analysis that is based on field significance testing
and the bootstrapping method provides proof
for the observed decrease in annual tornado activity in the
traditional ‘‘Tornado Alley’’ and the emergence
of a new maximum center of tornado activity. Seasonal analyses
of both counts and days for tornadoes and
significant tornadoes show similar results in the spring,
summer, and winter seasons, with a substantial
decrease in the central plains during summer. The autumn
season displays substantial increases in both
tornado counts and significant-tornado counts in the region
stretching from Mississippi into Indiana.
Similar results are found from the seasonal analysis of both
tornado days and significant-tornado days. This
temporal change of spatial patterns in tornado activity for
7. successive cold and warm periods may be
suggestive of climate change effects yet warrants the
climatological study of meteorological parameters
responsible for tornado formation.
1. Introduction
The temporal change of spatial patterns in the U.S.
‘‘tornado climatology’’ is an increasingly important
research area because of the potential effects of global
warming on key meteorological fields of information
that affect severe-thunderstorm and tornado devel-
opment. Additional value in having such updated in-
formation is also evident in the study by Ashley and
Strader (2016). Brooks et al. (2014a), as well as Agee
and Childs (2014), have noted the various un-
certainties in the tornado record that can potentially
impede a determination of any climate change effects
on tornado occurrences. Climate-model simulations
(e.g., Trapp et al. 2007; Diffenbaugh et al. 2013) point
to the possible effects due to increasing CAPE, yet
8. these model predictions also show decreasing shear in
the lower levels of the troposphere. These conflicting
meteorological predictions in a warming climate in-
troduce further uncertainty in detecting changes in
severe-thunderstorm behavior that exceed the natural
internal variability.
Dynamic downscaling of reanalysis data, as well as
climate-model simulation, offers the opportunity to
examine regional patterns of meteorological change
Corresponding author address: Ernest Agee, Dept. of Earth,
Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, 550
Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47907.
E-mail: [email protected]
Denotes Open Access content.
AUGUST 2016 A G E E E T A L . 1681
DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0342.1
� 2016 American Meteorological Society
mailto:[email protected]
9. that affect hazardous convective weather (HCW).
Trapp et al. (2011) with downscaling of reanalysis data
and Gensini and Mote (2015) through high-resolution
dynamic downscaling of the CCSM3 (acronym defi-
nitions can be found at http://www.ametsoc.org/
PubsAcronymList) show regions favored for in-
creased HCW. Downscaling performed by Gensini
and Mote (2015) to a 4-km grid spacing, using the
Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model,
makes a comparison of severe-weather events east of
the Continental Divide for the decade 1980–90 versus
2080–90. Their results show that the greatest increase
of HCW is for the middle and lower Mississippi val-
ley, Tennessee valley, and lower Ohio valley regions
with decreased events to the north and the west of
these areas. Results presented later support such
findings.
From an observation perspective, there is growing
10. interest in finding evidence of changes in tornado cli-
matology associated with the possible effects of global
warming in the U.S. tornado region for the past several
decades. Elsner et al. (2015) present empirical evidence
of changes in tornado climatology that are possibly
related to climate change. Dixon et al. (2011) help to
identify the emerging evidence of a ‘‘Dixie Alley,’’
which represents an eastward extension of the tradi-
tional ‘‘Tornado Alley’’ in the central plains. These
efforts point to the need and opportunity to examine
statistically the possible temporal and spatial changes
in the tornado climatology (particularly since 1954,
which is the accepted starting point of the modern
tornado record).
A preliminary investigation of the modern tornado
record encouraged this study by finding substantial
differences in annual tornado counts for key tornado
states such as Oklahoma (in the traditional Tornado
11. Alley) and Tennessee (in Dixie Alley). This pre-
liminary effort defined two successive 30-year
periods—a cold ‘‘Period I’’ (1954–83) and a warm
‘‘Period II’’ (1984–2013)—on the basis of surface air
temperature for the region 808–1058W and 308–508N.
State counts were compiled for each period (but not
presented here). For example, in Oklahoma the tor-
nado counts for tornadoes that are rated (E)F1–(E)F5
on the (enhanced) Fujita scale have decreased from
1096 in Period I to 713 in Period II for a loss of 383
(or a 35% decrease). Tennessee, however, increased
from 275 in Period I to 457 in Period II for a gain of 182
(or a 66% increase).
Increasing population has historically accounted
for a steady increase in annual tornado counts until
recent years. Much of this increase is attributed to
large increases in (E)F0 tornado counts (Verbout
et al. 2006), and these events are not included in this
12. study. Note also that shifts in rural population into
expanding suburban areas may affect annual counts,
especially for weaker tornadoes (but likely not for
counts of strong and violent tornadoes).
Next, Student’s t tests on 2.58 3 2.58 grid boxes in the
aforementioned domain (comparable to the resolution in
the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data) showed significant
differences in the annual mean tornado counts for the
four grid boxes with the most extreme change, which
encompassed Oklahoma (maximum decrease) and Ten-
nessee (maximum increase). Although these preliminary
results were suggestive of two distinct populations, the t
test is not the most effective statistical test to establish this
spatial shift. Therefore, more rigorous statistical analysis,
such as 1) field significance testing and 2) the comparison
of individual grid boxes using the bootstrapping method
of resampling, is required to establish acceptable spatial
and temporal shifts in tornado activity. In essence, this is
the nature of the analysis and the results presented below
13. in this study.
A fundamental premise underlying this study has
been to analyze two equal-length tornado records for
the NCEP–NCAR gridded domain (808–1058W, 308–
508N) corresponding to two successive 30-year pe-
riods, 1954–83 and 1984–2013. It was noted a priori
that changes in surface air temperature for the two
periods selected also represented two successive
multidecadal periods characterized by cold surface air
temperature followed by a warmer period for the
FIG. 1. Plot of CONUS annual mean surface air temperature
from
1954 to 2013. The U.S. cold period is defined as 1954–83. The
warm
period is defined as 1984–2013. Least squares–fit linear trend
lines are
shown for each period; the trend lines show that temperature de-
creases by 0.358F for the cold period and increases by 1.198F
for the
warm period. [The data are courtesy of the National Climatic
Data
Center (now the National Centers for Environmental
14. Information);
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag.]
1682 J O U R N A L O F A P P L I E D M E T E O R O L O G
Y A N D C L I M A T O L O G Y VOLUME 55
http://www.ametsoc.org/PubsAcronymList
http://www.ametsoc.org/PubsAcronymList
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag
continental United States (CONUS). This trend in
temperature may have climate change implications
for tornado behavior, but this possibility has not been
investigated in this particular study.
2. Selection of data, time periods, and analysis
To identify temporal changes in spatial patterns of
tornado activity it is appropriate to define a domain
that encompasses the U.S. Tornado Alley, as well as
appropriate time periods with homogenous data re-
cords. The domain selected (308–508N, 808–1058W)
covers the principal region of U.S. tornado activity
and is divided into a 2.58 3 2.58 gridbox array, cor-
responding to the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data re-
15. cord. The modern tornado record for climatological
studies begins with 1954, and in this study the period
chosen is from 1954 to 2013. The objective was to use
the longest possible data record for each period and
that these two periods have equal length, which
happened to correspond to successive cold and warm
periods. Surface air temperature for the tornado data
record helps to define the above-mentioned cold
Period I (1954–83) and warm Period II (1984–2013).
Figure 1 shows the two trend lines of the average
annual surface air temperature for CONUS that
correspond to the cold [0.358F (0.198C) decrease] and
warm [1.198F (0.668C) increase] periods. The trend
lines of the average annual surface air temperature
for the domain of this study are comparable to the
trend lines for CONUS (in Fig. 1), but CONUS
provides a slightly larger region over which surface
air temperature trends can be examined because it
encompasses the domain of this study as well as the
16. surrounding area in which storm systems that affect
the chosen domain may form.
a. Tornado counts and tornado days: Period I versus
Period II
As can be noted in the previous studies that were
referenced earlier, the recognized tornado record
for climatological studies consists of the (E)F1–(E)F5
tornado events. Tornado counts for each grid box
are determined on the basis of the following: 1) tor-
nado starts in the grid box and ends elsewhere, 2) tornado
starts elsewhere and ends in the grid box, 3) tornado starts
FIG. 2. Tornado counts (left) (E)F1–(E)F5, (center) (E)F2–
(E)F5, and (right) (E)F3–(E)F5 for the NCEP–NCAR gridded
domain for
(a)–(c) Period I (1954–83), (d)–(f) Period II (1984–2013), and
(g)–(i) Period II minus Period I.
AUGUST 2016 A G E E E T A L . 1683
and ends in the grid box, or 4) tornado starts elsewhere
and ends elsewhere but the straight-line path crosses
17. though the grid box. It is noted at this point that the
gridbox numbers for all figures that follow are not pre-
sented but rather are simply referenced and represented
by the contour plots. Figures 2a–i present the respective
(E)F1–(E)F5, (E)F2–(E)F5, and (E)F3–(E)F5 tornado
counts for Period I (Figs. 2a–c), Period II (Figs. 2d–f),
and Period II minus Period I (Figs. 2g–i). Figures 2a, 2d,
and 2g show the (E)F1–(E)F5 tornado counts across
the domain. The grid box (2.58 3 2.58) with the maximum
(E)F1–(E)F5 count in Period I, as shown in Fig. 2a, was in
southeastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas (with
477 events). For Period II the (E)F1–(E)F5 count for this
grid box decreased to 260 events, as shown in Fig. 2d, for a
reduction of 217 (or a decrease of 45%). For Period II, the
grid box with the maximum tornado count is now located
in northern Alabama (also 477 events). For Period I the
count for this grid box was 323 events, which represents
an increase of 48% from Period I to Period II. These
contour plots that are based on data for each grid box
18. show strong evidence of a possible major shift in the
geographical location of the most tornado activity (as
well as for the most significant tornadoes, shown in
Figs. 2b, 2e, and 2h). It is proposed that the new ‘‘heart of
Tornado Alley’’ as based on annual totals (and not on any
particular season) is now located in central Tennessee/
northern Alabama and not in eastern Oklahoma. The
findings in Figs. 2a, 2d, and 2g (and the additional results
to follow) are also very supportive of the shift in the
traditional Tornado Alley, as well as the targeted region
for the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Torna-
does Experiment-Southeast (VORTEX-SE) field pro-
gram scheduled for 2016. Next, as shown in Figs. 2b, 2e,
and 2h, for the significant tornadoes (E)F2–(E)F5 similar
results are found, and the new maximum number (185) is
located in northern Alabama while the greatest de-
crease (2159) is located in southeastern Oklahoma/
northeastern Texas. The maximum significant-tornado
19. grid box for Period I was in eastern Oklahoma (271
events), which decreased to 123 events in Period II
(for a reduction of 55%). Although the maximum
gridbox count for Period II was located in northern
Alabama and was comparable to Period I, the adjacent
northern grid box in central Tennessee had a maximum
increase in counts of nearly 100% (from 84 to 166).
Also, it is evident in Fig. 2h that the significant torna-
does in northeastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma
FIG. 3. As in Fig. 2, but for tornado days.
1684 J O U R N A L O F A P P L I E D M E T E O R O L O G
Y A N D C L I M A T O L O G Y VOLUME 55
decreased by counts of 159 and 148, respectively
(equivalent to reductions of 62% and 55%). Further-
more, these results are similar to the collective count of
the strong-to-violent (E)F3–(E)F5 tornadoes, as shown
in Figs. 2c, 2f, and 2i. On the basis of the results shown
in Figs. 2a–i, from central Tennessee to northern Ala-
20. bama is presented as the modern-day center for annual
tornado activity, replacing Oklahoma, the previous
heart of Tornado Alley from 1954 to 1983, which has
also experienced a substantial decline in tornado ac-
tivity. Statistical support for this statement is
presented later.
Although these figures and percentages of change
are noteworthy, a new paradigm for U.S. tornado ac-
tivity can be further defended by additional analysis.
The question can be raised, for example, as to whether
FIG. 4. Winter (DJF) tornado counts for (left) (E)F1–(E)F5 and
(right) (E)F2–(E)F5 for (a),(b) Period I (1954–83) (c),(d) Period
II (1984–
2013), and (e),(f) Period II minus Period I.
AUGUST 2016 A G E E E T A L . 1685
major tornado outbreaks affecting the ‘‘Dixie’’ states,
such as 3–4 April 1974 and 27–28 April 2011, can bias
the results. By examining tornado days [defined as a
21. day with at least one (E)F11 tornado], major out-
breaks are counted as one or two days rather than a
large quantity of tornadoes, thus eliminating the bias.
The results of this tornado-day analysis further sup-
port the tentative conclusion presented in this study.
Figures 3a–i are presented for tornado days with the
same format of data presentation as Figs. 2a–i. These
results, especially for the significant-tornado days,
support the same general conclusion as deduced from
tornado counts; that is, central Tennessee/northern
Alabama is the candidate new heart of Tornado Al-
ley. Figure 3a shows the most tornado days (246) from
south-central Oklahoma to north-central Texas in
Period I, but the new maximum in Period II (shown in
Fig. 3d) is 208 in southern Mississippi. These regions
FIG. 5. As in Fig. 4, but for spring (MAM).
1686 J O U R N A L O F A P P L I E D M E T E O R O L O G
Y A N D C L I M A T O L O G Y VOLUME 55
22. experienced decreases of 48% and 5%, respectively,
while central Tennessee increased by 29 tornado
days. Figures 3b, 3e, and 3h for the significant-tornado
days show a maximum gridbox count of 151 in Period
I, which decreases to 56 in Period II, with the greatest
increase seen in central Tennessee of 25 significant-
tornado days. Also, from Period I to Period II there
is a general decline in significant-tornado days for
almost the entire domain, with the maximum decrease
occurring in the traditional Tornado Alley. Figures 3c,
3f, and 3i show the counts of tornado days for (E)F3–
(E)F5, with two pronounced maxima: one in the tra-
ditional Tornado Alley and the second one in the
Dixie Alley. It is also noted that Period II shows an
overall weaker tornado-day signal than does Period I,
but the new maximum is now located in northern
FIG. 6. As in Fig. 4, but for summer (JJA).
AUGUST 2016 A G E E E T A L . 1687
23. Alabama. Central Tennessee shows the greatest in-
crease of 100% (from 14 to 28 days) for the most-
violent tornadoes.
b. Seasonal changes (counts and days): Period I
versus Period II
The changes noted above can be further examined
for seasonality, beginning with the winter season (DJF)
for Period I, Period II, and their difference for both the
(E)F1–(E)F5 tornadoes, as shown in Figs. 4a, 4c, and
4e, and the significant tornadoes, as shown in Figs. 4b,
4d, and 4f. Period II has seen a substantial increase in
(E)F1–(E)F5 tornado counts from Tennessee to the
lower Mississippi valley. Similar results are shown in
Figs. 4b, 4d, and 4f for the significant tornadoes; there
are decreases near the Gulf Coast for Period II but an
FIG. 7. As in Fig. 4, but for autumn (SON).
1688 J O U R N A L O F A P P L I E D M E T E O R O L O G
Y A N D C L I M A T O L O G Y VOLUME 55
24. increase in central and western Tennessee from Period
I to Period II. The spring season (MAM), shown in
Figs. 5a and 5b, identifies the traditional center of ex-
pected springtime tornado activity in Oklahoma for
Period I. For Period II, however, two distinct maxima
are apparent, as shown in Figs. 5c and 5d: one in central
Oklahoma and one in northern Alabama. Central
Tennessee had a maximum increase of 105 from Pe-
riod I to Period II, while north-central Texas and
southwestern Oklahoma had a maximum decrease of
172. Figures 5b, 5d, and 5f show similar results for the
significant tornadoes, and values have continued to
decline from Period I to Period II in the traditional
Tornado Alley (with a maximum gridbox decrease of
105). Central Tennessee shows an increase in signifi-
cant tornadoes of 55% (going from 65 in Period I to 101
in Period II), however. Figures 6a–d show the expected
25. northward movement of tornado activity for the
FIG. 8. Winter (DJF) tornado days for (left) (E)F1–(E)F5 and
(right) (E)F2–(E)F5 for (a),(b) Period I (1954–83), (c),(d)
Period II (1984–
2013), and (e),(f) Period II minus Period I.
AUGUST 2016 A G E E E T A L . 1689
summer (JJA) season, but Fig. 6e shows a substantial
decrease in EF1–EF5 tornadoes of 80% (from 101
down to 20 tornadoes) in central Oklahoma for Period
II minus Period I; this summertime decrease was also
noted by Brooks et al. (2014b). Western Minnesota
shows gridbox increases of 37 and 40, and eastern
Colorado has an increase of 48. Figures 6b, 6d, and 6f
present results similar to those for Figs. 6a, 6c, and 6e,
but for the significant tornadoes. There are substantial
decreases over much of the domain, as seen in Fig. 6f,
except for the increase in southern Minnesota. The
maximum gridbox decrease in east-central Oklahoma
26. is 44 counts (Fig. 6f). Figures 7a–d show increases for
counts and significant tornadoes from Period I to Pe-
riod II. In particular, Fig. 7e shows a 68% increase in
tornado counts (from 74 to 124) in southern Mississippi
FIG. 9. As in Fig. 8, but for spring (MAM).
1690 J O U R N A L O F A P P L I E D M E T E O R O L O G
Y A N D C L I M A T O L O G Y VOLUME 55
for SON, with the maximum increase in western Ten-
nessee of 350% (from 18 to 81). Figures 7b, 7d, and 7f
show the counts and differences for the significant
tornadoes for the autumn season with noted increases
from Georgia up through the Tennessee and Ohio
valleys into northern Indiana and notable decreases
west of the Mississippi River. These results are
supported in part by the downscaling results shown in
Gensini and Mote (2015, their Fig. 4).
Winter-season counts for (E)F1–(E)F5 tornado days
27. and significant-tornado days are presented in Figs. 8a–f
for Period I, Period II, and Period II minus Period I. For
DJF the counts are largely confined to the Dixie Alley
states for both periods, with a notable decrease along the
FIG. 10. As in Fig. 8, but for summer (JJA).
AUGUST 2016 A G E E E T A L . 1691
Gulf Coast. Figures 9a–f show a general spring-season
decrease in tornado days and significant-tornado days
for Period II minus Period I, with the largest MAM
decreases in Oklahoma and north-central Texas.
Figures 10a–f for JJA show the continued decline of
both tornado days and significant-tornado days.
Figures 11a–f for SON show an increase in tornado days
for the southern tier of states as well as in portions of the
Midwest and the Ohio valley, with continued evidence
of decreases west of the Mississippi River (for both
tornado days and significant-tornado days). In general, it
28. is noted that the autumn season makes the greatest
contribution to the annual increase in Tennessee/Alabama
and that the summer contributes the greatest decrease
FIG. 11. As in Fig. 8, but for autumn (SON).
1692 J O U R N A L O F A P P L I E D M E T E O R O L O G
Y A N D C L I M A T O L O G Y VOLUME 55
across Oklahoma and north-central Texas, which has
implications for seasonal prediction and climate change
projections. These results also show agreement with
Gensini and Mote (2015).
3. Field significance and bootstrapping (annual
counts): Period I versus Period II
As large as the spatial changes seem to be from Pe-
riod I to Period II, suggesting a new center of maximum
annual tornado counts (as well as significant torna-
does), additional analysis is required. The approach
used now to further solidify these results is to apply a
field significance test, which addresses any high spatial
29. correlation present in the data, as well as the classical
bootstrapping method through resampling (10 000
times) to examine the corresponding probability den-
sity functions (PDF) and confidence intervals that can
be determined (Diciccio and Romano 1988).
The field significance test performed in this study
follows the method proposed by Elmore et al. (2006).
First, a block bootstrap that resamples 10 000 times
with a block size of five values is used to test the sig-
nificance of Period II minus Period I for all grid boxes
in the domain at a 5 0.05. The proportion of statisti-
cally significant grid boxes N is recorded and stored
for later use. Next, a Monte Carlo process with 10 000
trials calculates the correlation coefficient between
the annual means of Period II minus the annual means
of Period I and a series of values randomly selected
from a standard normal distribution, and then it de-
termines the proportion of correlation coefficients
that are statistically significant at a 5 0.05. If the
30. proportion of statistically significant grid boxes is
greater than the proportion of statistically significant
correlation coefficients, then the domain is ‘‘field
significant.’’ For the (E)F1–(E)F5 tornado counts, N is
calculated to be 27.5% and the threshold is 8.75%.
FIG. 12. The bootstrapping method of resampling is performed
by sampling with replacement
30 times from the annual counts for a selected eastern region
and western region, calculating
eastern region minus western region for each pair of annual
counts sampled, and finding the
mean of the 30 difference values. This process is repeated 10
000 times to create a PDF.
AUGUST 2016 A G E E E T A L . 1693
Because N exceeds the threshold, the (E)F1–(E)F5
tornado counts are field significant at the 95% confi-
dence level. In a similar way, the (E)F2–(E)F5 tor-
nado counts are found to be field significant at the 95%
confidence level with an N of 37.5% and a threshold of
31. 8.75%.
Next, the classical bootstrapping method of resampling
is performed to show the statistical significance of the
difference between the two regions of most extreme
change for each time period. Figure 12 shows the method
for bootstrapping used to calculate the PDF for the dif-
ference between two grid boxes in a single period. First,
two values are randomly selected with replacement, one
from the set of annual mean counts for the eastern region
and one from the set of annual mean counts for the
western region. After the difference (eastern region mi-
nus western region) of the values is calculated, two more
values are randomly selected in the same manner; this
process is repeated until a set of 30 difference values is
obtained. Then the mean of the 30 difference values is
calculated. This entire process of sampling and calculat-
ing the mean is repeated 10000 times to obtain a set of
10000 mean difference values. From this set of mean
32. difference values, a PDF is created that can then be used
to test the significance of the counts at the 99% confi-
dence level for a given period.
The bootstrapping method described above is done
for the annual tornado counts and the annual
significant-tornado counts with a focus on the regions
of extreme change. Figure 13 highlights two of the most
extreme regions of change, consisting of four grid
boxes each and labeled as box a (decrease) and box
b (increase), that are prime targets for bootstrap
analysis. Within these two regions, the individual west
and east grid boxes with the greatest change are iden-
tified as GW (decrease) and GE (increase), re-
spectively. Figure 14a shows the resampling results for
the annual tornado counts over box b minus box a.
Inspection of the accompanying table shows that the
two regions are mutually exclusive at the 99% confi-
dence level. Figure 14b is similar to Fig. 14a but is for
33. grid box GE minus grid box GW. The comparison of
these PDFs from resampling also shows 99% confi-
dence level for the differences. Results for the signifi-
cant tornadoes for grid box GE minus grid box GW are
presented in Fig. 14c, which also supports, at the 99%
confidence level, the different PDFs for the observa-
tional data versus the resampled data.
On the basis of all of the results presented in Fig. 14,
there is statistical support for major temporal changes in
the spatial climatology of U.S. tornadoes in the annual
counts both for (E)F1–(E)F5 tornadoes and for significant
tornadoes (E)F2–(E)F5. Furthermore, these shifts show a
new region of maximum annual tornado (and significant
tornado) occurrence for 1984–2013 identified by box
b (located in the Dixie Alley) and not by box a (located in
the Period-I traditional Tornado Alley region).
4. Summary and conclusions
A statistical assessment of changes in the U.S. tornado
34. climatology for two consecutive 30-year time periods
over the domain bounded by 308–508N, and 808–1058 has
been completed. These two time periods of equal length
were characterized by changes in the mean surface air
temperature from cold in Period I (1954–83) to warm in
Period II (1984–2013). The years 1950–53 are not con-
sidered to be a homogeneous part of the modern-day
tornado record. Further, 2014 is not included because
doing so would have resulted in time periods of unequal
length. The chosen domain was divided into grid boxes
that were 2.58 3 2.58, which corresponds to the resolution
of the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. Tornado counts for
each grid box were made for all (E)F1–(E)F5 tornadoes,
including various subsets of these data for significant,
strong, and violent tornadoes. The gridbox counts were
made for each event according to the following criteria:
1) tornado starts in the grid box and ends elsewhere,
2) tornado starts elsewhere and ends in the grid box,
3) tornado starts and ends in the grid box, or 4) tornado
35. starts elsewhere and ends elsewhere but the straight-line
path crosses though the grid box. Similar considerations
were given to tornado days, as well as seasonal partitions
for all data. Tornado days are defined as a day with at
least one (E)F11 tornado. Statistical field significance
testing, along with classical bootstrap resampling of
selected datasets, has been introduced to support
FIG. 13. Locations of box a and box b as well as the grid boxes
with the greatest increase (grid box GE) and greatest decrease
(grid box GW) in tornado counts between Period I and Period II.
1694 J O U R N A L O F A P P L I E D M E T E O R O L O G
Y A N D C L I M A T O L O G Y VOLUME 55
FIG. 14. The difference in (a) (E)F1–(E)F5 tornado counts for
box b minus box a and the difference in (b) (E)F1–(E)F5 and (c)
(E)F2–
(E)F5 tornado counts for grid box GE minus grid box GW. All
PDFs are derived from 10 000 times of resampling, and all of
the PDFs are
mutually exclusive at the 99% confidence level.
AUGUST 2016 A G E E E T A L . 1695
36. conclusions regarding spatial changes in tornado clima-
tology between the two periods.
Tornado counts for Period I captured the classical,
well-known center of Tornado Alley with a gridbox
maximum of 477 located in southeastern Oklahoma
and northeastern Texas. In Period II the new maximum
gridbox value (also 477) is now located in northern
Alabama. Differences in counts from Period I to Period
II show respective changes of 2217 and 1154 for these
grid boxes. Similar compilations for significant torna-
does again show the maximum count (271) in Okla-
homa for Period I, but the new maximum in Period II
(185) is located in northern Alabama. Equally impor-
tant is the overall decline in significant tornadoes, with
the largest decrease (2159) located in southeastern
Oklahoma and northeastern Texas. Similar results
have also been shown for the (E)F3–(E)F5 tornado
counts. The field significance test and the bootstrapping
37. method of resampling (10 000 times) for both the tor-
nado counts and the significant-tornado counts support
this geographical shift in the relocation of the center of
U.S. tornado activity at the 95% confidence level and
the 99% confidence level, respectively. Although sev-
eral studies have shown evidence of the Dixie Alley of
tornado events, the results here reveal that there is a
temporal shift of maximum activity away from the
traditional Tornado Alley.
Equally important in this study has been the ex-
amination of the number of tornado days, since it can
be argued that the statistics are dominated by a few big
outbreak events. The maximum number of tornado
days in Period I (246) is located in southeastern
Oklahoma and northeastern Texas, but in Period II
the new maximum (208) is located in southwestern
Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. The greatest de-
crease (137) is located in southwestern Oklahoma and
38. north-central Texas, with the greatest increase (29) in
central Tennessee. Similar results are noted for the
significant and violent tornado days with a general
overall decline in numbers.
Seasonal considerations of tornado counts and tor-
nado days have been made that show interesting re-
sults that affect the annual totals discussed above.
The winter season (DJF) shows substantial increases
in tornado counts from Period I to Period II, with
the maximum increase (56) in central Tennessee.
Significant-tornado counts were largely unchanged
except for decreases along the Gulf Coast and in-
creases across Tennessee and western Kentucky. The
spring season (MAM) shows a bifurcation in maxi-
mum counts from a single center in central Oklahoma
(308) for Period I to two centers in Period II located in
northern Alabama (283) and central Oklahoma (263).
The greatest increase (105) is in central Tennessee,
39. and the greatest decrease (172) is located in north-
central Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. Similar
results are noted for the significant-tornado counts.
The summer season (JJA) shows the expected shift
northward for both Period I and Period II, with the
greatest decrease (81) located in western Oklahoma.
Similar results are shown for the significant-tornado
counts. The autumn season (SON) shows increases in
tornado counts from Period I to Period II for the Dixie
Alley states extending into northern Indiana, with a
maximum gridbox value (63) located in western Ten-
nessee. Similar results are shown for the significant
tornadoes, with a new value of maximum change (22)
located in western Tennessee, western Kentucky, and
southern Illinois. Seasonal tornado days have also
been determined for both tornadoes and significant
tornadoes, and results are consistent and supportive of
the findings for the seasonal tornado counts. Changes
40. in seasonal tornado activity from Period I to Period II
have accounted in part for the relocation of the center
of annual maximum tornado activity.
Although this study has shown a temporal change in
spatial patterns of tornado activity, no results have
been presented to relate this to climate change. It is
noteworthy, however, that the two periods studied are
characterized by differences in surface air temperature
that may be related to parameters that can influence
tornado activity. Climate-model predictions of in-
creasing CAPE and weaker shear raise interesting
questions regarding the role of climate change in cur-
rent and future U.S. tornado climatology. Considerably
more investigation into the meteorological parameters
responsible for the patterns of change in the new tor-
nado climatology is warranted, with particular atten-
tion given to the agreement (or lack thereof) with
climate-model simulations.
41. Acknowledgments. The authors are grateful to Purdue
University doctoral candidate Kimberly Hoogewind
for assistance with the gridbox tornado counts and
their accuracy. Purdue University professor Michael
Baldwin is recognized for suggesting use of the classical
bootstrapping method and for assistance in imple-
menting the field significance test. The reviewers are
also recognized for their many valuable comments and
constructive suggestions that have allowed the authors
to improve the manuscript.
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Running head: Casual Factors project 1
Casual Factors project 11Casual Factors Project
Wesley D. Herron
Waldorf University
Identifying Causal Factors and Corrective Actions
1. EQUIPMENT
Industrial accidents
Causal Factors
Comment
Recommended Corrective Action
Human factors
· Evaluate procedures for inspecting, reporting, maintaining,
46. repairing, replacing, or recalling defective equipment, tools, and
material used.
· Non-compliance
· Unskilled employees
· Stress and depression
· Employee failure to communicate
· Perform job safety analysis.
· Improve employee ability to recognize existing or potentially
hazardous conditions.
· Provide test equipment, as required, to detect hazards.
Evaluate any change or modification of equipment, tool, and
material.
· Train employees in reporting procedures.
· Stress individual acceptance of responsibility.
· Evaluate job procedures for hazard avoidance.
· Evaluate supervisory responsibility.
· Improve supervisor and employee communications.
· Take action to remove or minimize the hazard.
1. EQUIPMENT
Causal Factors
Comment
Recommended Corrective Action
47. · Develop and adopt procedures to detect hazardous conditions.
· Conduct test.
· Evaluate procedures.
· Change frequency or comprehensiveness.
· Provide test equipment as required.
· Improve employee ability to detect defects and hazardous
conditions.
· Change job procedures as required.
· Specify correct equipment and tools and material in job
procedure.
· Provide correct equipment tools and material.
· Evaluate purchasing specifications and procedures.
· Anticipate future requirements.
· Evaluate procedures for storage, access, delivery, or
distribution.
· Evaluate job procedures for obtaining equipment tools and
material.
· Provide correct equipment and tool and material. Warn against
the use of substitutes in job procedures and job instruction.
48. 1. EQUIPMENT
Causal Factors
Comment
Recommended Corrective Action
· Human factors
· Caused by human carelessness or negligence
· Evaluate human factors engineering principles.
· Alter equipment and tools and material to make it more
compatible with human capability and limitations.
· Evaluate purchasing procedures and specs.
· Check out new equipment and job procedures involving new
equipment before putting into service.
· Encourage employees to report potentially hazardous
conditions created by equipment design.
· Evaluate criteria in codes, standards, specifications, and
regulations.
· Establish new criteria as required.
Therefore, various steps to be considered in the implementation
of an effective disaster recovery planning, as well as data
backup, will be evaluated through action, observation and
reflection plans.
Action
The action plan will involve a review of various strategies,
49. which can be used in implementing the disaster recovery plan,
strategies for an efficient data backup, the benefits of these
policies as well as their limitations.
Strategies for an effective Disaster recovery plan
It is critical to define the context for the disaster recovery
planning effort will use in executing the process. Most often,
the emergency response requires an agency to have a disaster
management team that is a task force that will enhance the
decision-making process (Alhazmi & Malaiya, 2012).
. Therefore, to be able to have effective strategies to ensure that
a disaster recovery plan is effectively implemented the
organization needs to have a clear and comprehensive
understanding of the threats and consequences of the
catastrophe. After this, they are obligated to create an effective
communication plan to effectively prevent, detect and correct
the various adverse effects that were made during the
catastrophe (Alhazmi & Malaiya, 2012).
Understanding the various threats and consequences
To be able to understand the risks and effects of disasters
effectively it is important to perform a quality improvement
evaluation in the scene where the tragedy occurred. Quality
improvement refers to the application of a required approach in
the assessment of performance as well as employing adequate
efforts to ensure that the performance is enhanced (Brooks,
Merryman, Juran, & Bedernjak, 2002).It includes constant and
regular actions that result in measurable improvement in
performance of the various activities in different areas such as
health care and business.
The worker's safety risks can be overcome through integrating
various measures such as improving work organization to reflect
the demands of employees such as flexible work schedules,
regulating the long working hours and management of overtime.
Also, the psychological work demands should be effectively
managed such as the pace of work. Also, other factors related to
direct care practices that affect workers safety such as patient
lifting and awkward postures should be addressed. Protective
50. devices to ensure the security should also be introduced to
avoid occupational exposures, violence, and needle sticks
(Brooks, Merryman, Juran, & Bedernjak, 2002).
Different risks are identified using the following methods of
risk identification. Observations include noticing the previous
risks that have previously occurred and the current ones as well
as reporting them to the disaster management team.
Interviewing which will be done through the use of research
tools such as recordings and questionnaires. Using
organizational development instruments such as the (SWOT)
analysis, which is the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and
threats. PESTLE, another organizational tool can be used that
means the political, sociological, technological, environmental,
ecological and legal factors (Brooks, Merryman, Juran, &
Bedernjak, 2002).Diagramming can also be utilized for the
physical description of the risk factors.
Reflection
Distinguishing between business continuity planning and
disaster recovery planning is important. While business
recovery plans are concerned on defining assets, risks, as well
as scenarios that can severely affect the organization and make
effective decisions to control the threats, disaster recovery
planning is concerned with constant and pre-planned actions
that could respond to various emergency events. Thus, business
continuity planning is about mitigating hazards, and disaster
recovery planning is concerned with response measures to be
taken after the occurrence of accidents.
The communication plan can use the written option as the
primary communication channel such as leaflets and flyers,
notice boards and posters, agreements and contracts,
distribution cards, short message services, newspapers and
social media. This is because this method appeals to most
audience and stakeholders of the company.
The disaster-planning manager in response to a calamity will
involve working with the disaster management team along with
other stakeholders, which will include heads of departments, the
51. employees, and various internal and external stakeholders. The
process will involve identifying, analyzing, and managing risks
effectively to ensure there is a minimum impact in the event it
occurs (Kirvan, 2011). The scope will also include identifying
risks through evaluating the various environmental factors
company management plan and the organizational culture as
well as the cost, quality, and schedule. Particular attention will
be paid to various constraints, assumptions, resource plan cost,
and effort approximate and other main documents.
Additionally, Particular strategies should be intended to deal
with the risks that an enterprise experiences are taking a long-
term plan and perception in developing the capacity to eradicate
threats by preventing, avoiding, Mitigating responding and
recovering from disasters. The specific strategies are used to
design and develop several enterprises in the capacity
sustainable processes.
Finally, a calamity can be artificial, environmental, or even
natural. Therefore, a disaster recovery plan is developed to
make sure that the critical business operations continue in the
event of an accident. The program offers practical solutions,
which can be applied in recovering the essential business
functions within their expected period using critical records that
may be stored offsite. However, this plan is among the
numerous programs that offer several procedures that are used
in handling situations during emergencies. The methods can be
used independently, but they can be effective when used
simultaneously as they are designed to support each other.
52. References
Alhazmi, O. H., & Malaiya, Y. K. (2012). Evaluating disaster
recovery plans using the cloud. Retrieved from
http://www.cs.colostate.edu/~malaiya/p/DisasterRecovery2013.
pdf
Brooks, C., Merryman, J., Juran, I., & Bedernjak, M. (2002).
ibm.com /redbooks Disaster Recovery Strategies with Tivoli
Storage Management. International Technical Support
Organization. Retrieved from
ftp://skolai.daba.lv/pub/Arhivatori/adsm_clients/SG246844/sg24
6844_disaster_recovery.pdf
Dart, T. (2014). New Orleans: houses can be rebuilt, but can
trust in central government? Retrieved from HTTP://
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2014/jan/27/new-orleans-
houses-rebuilt-trust-government-hurricane-katrina
Kirvan, P. (2011). How to write a disaster recovery plan and
define disaster recovery strategies. Retrieved from
http://www.computerweekly.com/feature/How-to-write-a-
disaster-recovery-plan-and-define-disaster-recovery-strategies
Mohamed, H. A. R. (2014). A proposed model for IT disaster
recovery plan. International Journal of Modern Education and
Computer Science, 6(4), 57–67. doi:10.5815/ijmecs.2014.04.08