Disaster risk trends are a measure of the sustainability of development. Trend analysis helps us to understand patterns of disaster risk and, consequently, whether disaster risk reduction is being effective. Using disaster trends to inform policy and practice requires a good understanding of the limits of these trends. The pattern the trend displays (rising, falling or fluctuating) is only as real as the amount, quality and reliability of the data used. For instance, patterns of disaster losses may actually reflect a number of factors unrelated to disaster risk, including the time period over which they are measured and improvements in disaster risk reporting. In order to account for these problems, analysts determine the statistical significance of the trend.

1. SHANTILAL SHAH GOVERMENT ENGINEERING COLLEGE
Mechanical Engineering
Department
Prof. U.A. PATEL SIRGuided By :-
Roll No Enrollment No Name
2096 170433119003 Bavaria Preet K.
2097 170433119004 Chaudhari Brijal I.
2098 170433119006 Chavda Mayur J.
2099 170433119008 Doshi Paras S.
2100 170433119009 Hingu Ravi K.

2.  Subject name :- Disaster Management.
 Subject code :- 2150003
 TOPIC NAME :- global disaster trends- emerging risks
of disaster- climate change

3.  Global Disaster Trends.
Disaster risk trends are a measure of the sustainability of development.
 Trend analysis helps us to understand patterns of disaster risk and,
consequently, whether disaster risk reduction is being effective.
Using disaster trends to inform policy and practice requires a good
understanding of the limits of these trends.
The pattern the trend displays (rising, falling or fluctuating) is only as real as
the amount, quality and reliability of the data used. For instance, patterns of
disaster losses may actually reflect a number of factors unrelated to disaster
risk, including the time period over which they are measured and
improvements in disaster risk reporting.
In order to account for these problems, analysts determine the statistical
significance of the trend.

5. Hazard trends(1)
 The graph on the last slide shows that the number of reported disasters
has risen
 significantly in recent years.
 Part of this rise is likely to be due to more accurate recording and better
 communications with isolated regions.
 Note the rapid rise since around 1960, when satellite remote sensing
and global
 communications began.
 Population growth has led to more people living in potentially hazardous
locations. This means there are greater numbers at risk.
 Many of these people at risk live in the developing world, and are
vulnerable due
 to their low coping capacity.

6. Hazard trends(2)
Some types of disaster show clearer trends than others.
 The graph on the last slide compares trends in three disaster types.
 The trend for earthquakes is fairly stable. There is no evidence that the number
of earthquake events is increasing. There are likely to have been more people in
earthquake-prone areas in 2000 than in 1980, and this would explain the slight
rise in disasters.
 There is a clearer upward trend for floods and wind storms. This may indicate
an increase in the vulnerable population and a rise in the number of hazardous
events.
 It could be the result of global climate change and/or other environmental
changes.

7.  Emerging disater
 Historically, dealing with disasters focused on emergency response, but
towards the end of the 20th century it was increasingly recognised that
disasters are not natural and that it is only by reducing and managing
conditions of hazard, exposure and vulnerability that we can prevent
losses and alleviate the impacts of disasters.
 Since we cannot reduce the severity of natural hazards, the main
opportunity for reducing risk lies in reducing vulnerability and exposure.

8.  Reducing these two components of risk requires identifying and
reducing the underlying drivers of risk, which are particularly related to
poor economic and urban development choices and practice,
degradation of the environment, poverty and inequality and climate
change, which create and exacerbate conditions of hazard,exposure
amd vulnerability.
 Addressing these underlying risk drivers will reduce disaster risk, lessen
the impacts of climate change and, consequently, maintain the
sustainability of development (UNISDR, 2015a).

9. Climate change
 Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns when that
change lasts for an extended period of time (i.e., decades to millions of years).
 Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions, or in the time
variation of weather within the context of longer-term average conditions.
 Climate change is caused by factors such as biotic processes, variations in solar
radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions.
 Certain human activities have been identified as primary causes of ongoing climate
change, often referred to as global warming`.

10.  A climate record extending deep into the Earth's past has been assembled,
and continues to be built up, based on geological evidence
from borehole temperature profiles, cores removed from deep accumulations
of ice, floral and faunal records, glacial and periglacial processes, stable-
isotope and other analyses of sediment layers, and records of past sea levels.
 More recent data are provided by the instrumental record. General circulation
models, based on the physical sciences, are often used in theoretical
approaches to match past climate data, make future projections, and link
causes and effects in climate change.
 Factors that can shape climate are called climate forcings or "forcing
mechanisms".[5]
 These can be either "internal" or "external". Internal forcing mechanisms are
natural processes within the climate system itself (e.g., the thermohaline
circulation). External forcing mechanisms can be either anthropogenic -
caused by humans - (e.g. increased emissions of greenhouse gases and
dust) or natural.

11. THANK YOU