This vocational dissertation was undertaken in collaboration with Newcastle City Council. This study was aimed at developing a quantitative social vulnerability indices for assessing extreme temperature vulnerability in Newcastle. This report is expected to help in identifying localized community-level social vulnerability determinants for emergency planning and response. The first objective of this study was to determine the social indicators which could contribute to increased losses on well-being. First, drawing theoretical justification from the literature and consultation with experts at Newcastle City Council, an initial set of indicators was collected from census data for 910 Output Areas (OAs) in Newcastle. These datasets were used to quantify to what extent their availability or lack can contribute to an overall increase or decrease in vulnerability in different parts of Newcastle. The summary of social vulnerability proxies developed in this study is presented in Chapter 3. The second part of the analysis combines statistics and GIS to compare the relationship between sensitivity, adaptive capacity and enhanced exposure sub-indices and their components. The result of this investigation indicates that there is a significant statistical relationship between sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and also between sensitivity and enhanced exposure. The spatial relationship was tested using Getis Ord Gi* hotspot analysis and Ripley's K statistic, which found a significant clustering of vulnerability driven by both “sensitivity”, “adaptive capacity” and “enhanced exposure”. This study has identified the most vulnerable output areas in Newcastle in these wards; Walker, Elswick, Jesmond, Newburn, and Gosforth. From these observations, this report advocates the inclusion of social indicators in vulnerability analysis to reveal the marginalized population otherwise not acknowledged. Finally, a proximity assessment of health and emergency services was carried out to reveal the southern cluster of emergency facilities and inefficient coverage of ambulance services. The identified accessibility-deprived output areas are located in the wards on the Northern parts including; Woolsington, Parkland, Fawdon, East and West Gosforth, and Castle. This report summarizes by noting that the new framework is only intended to inform the periodic review of emergency planning and response strategies in Newcastle, suggesting an adoption of spatially detailed data to improve quantitative understanding of the spatial distribution of extreme temperature-related social vulnerability. It finally recommends an improvement in institutional adaptive capacity to handle emergencies in Newcastle.

1. DevelopingSocialVulnerabilityIndexforExtremeTemperaturesRiskin
Newcastle:
AnEvidence-basedToolforEmergencyPreparednessandResponse.
Presented By:
Alex Nwoko
Vocational Dissertation
with

2. PresentationOverview:
Introduction
Extreme temperature risk (cold wave and heat wave)
Project brief
Aim and Objectives
Literature Review
-Risk, Vulnerability, Adaptive Capacity, Resilience
-Heat wave and Cold wave in Newcastle
-Mapping Social vulnerability
Methodology
-Data collection
-Data Sources
Results and Discussion
- Explaining social vulnerability indicators in Newcastle
Summary

3. Introduction
•Extreme hot and cold weather conditions usually have huge impact on health and wellbeing of households,
businesses and social care systems.
•Heat – Chicago (2005), London (2003) and Europe(2003), Russia (2010) heat wave
•Cold - Excess Winter Deaths (EWD) (North East)(McMichael et al., 2006)
•There is no generally acceptable definition of what constitutes a cold wave or heatwave event (Perkins and
Alexander, 2013; World Meteorological Organization and World Health Organization, 2015), they perceived to be
periods of unusually hot and dry or cold and snow spell weather with a duration of at least two to three days and
a discernible impact on human activities and physical infrastructure.
Project Brief - Newcastle City Council
In order to improve efficiency in emergency response to extreme temperature event, there is need to provide more detailed
evidence on spatial patterns of social vulnerability to temperature in Newcastle. This project has been developed to quantify
localized indicators of groups and community level social vulnerability.

4. AimandObjectives
Aim
This study is aimed at carrying out a quantitative vulnerability assessment of people
and communities at risk of extreme temperature (i.e. heatwaves and cold waves) in
Newcastle, in order to provide evidence that will guide emergency planning and
response to extreme temperature risk.
Objectives
1. To assess the data requirement within the city council and partner agency
datasets for understanding social vulnerability to cold and heat wave.
2. To assess the interaction between social vulnerability indicators as risk factors for
heat and cold mortality and morbidity and map the spatial-temporal pattern of
extreme temperature-related health impacts..
3. To assess council emergency response as an adaptation options for social
vulnerability.

5. BackgroundContext:
Key Terms
Risk: Systematic interaction of hazard and vulnerability
conditions; usually expressed as “Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability”
(Wisner et al, 2004).
Vulnerability
“Vulnerability” is “the likelihood that an individual or group will
be exposed to and adversely affected by a hazard. It is the
interaction of the hazard of place (risk and mitigation) with the
social profile of communities” – Cutter, (1993).
Vulnerable Persons: Population possessing certain
characteristics that make them more susceptible to harm and
more likely to have a slower recovery (Cabinet Office, 2008).
“Resilience” refers to the continuous ability of communities and
groups to withstand and recover from disaster event" (National
Health Security Strategy (NHSS), 2015).
Adaptive capacity refers to the “ability of people, organizations,
and systems, using available skills and resources, to face and
manage adverse conditions, emergencies, or disasters” (UNISDR,
2009b).
Vulnerability Resilience
Adaptive
Capacity
Source: (adopted from Cutter et al., 2008).

6. Legislationformanagingextremetemperaturerisk
Climate Change Act 2008
Civil Contingency Act 2004
Community Risk Register

7. EmergencyPlanningandTheCommunityRiskRegister(CRR)-NorthumbriaLocalResilienceForum
Cold wave
Heat wave
Threshold maximum day and night temperatures for heat wave vary across
region and is defined by the Met Office National Severe Weather Warning
Service (NSWWS) E.g. North East – Day (280C), Night (150C), London - Day
(320C), Night (180C)
Cold weather alert threshold temperature is 2°C.

8. MappingSocialVulnerability
Heat wave and cold wave vulnerability and emergencies have strong geographical dimension (Wolf &
McGregor, 2013; Cutter et al., 2000; 2003; 2009; Wolf et al., 2009; Reid et al., 2009; Romero-Lankao et al.,
2012)
Evaluating social vulnerability factors and how it is translated into health and well-being losses can be used
to construct an evidence base to assist in targeted mitigation programmes and emergency response
(Lindley et al., (2011).
GIS can enable emergency managers to identify of demographic aspects of an emergency and allow spatial
information from multiple sources and agencies to be integrated across different scale to provide an
informed response (Cabinet office, 2008. p.11).
Two Generic Method of Social Vulnerability Study
-Outcome-based Approach (Also known as ‘autopsy’, inductive or study) e.g. Fouillet et al., (2006); Johnson,
Howard, et al., (2005); Wolf et al., (2013).
-‘Contextual-based’ Approach - e.g. (O’Brien, et al., 2007; Füsell, 2009; Lemoine et al., 2015)
Contribution of this Study
1. This study examines social vulnerability factors in Newcastle at the most detailed localized scale (Output
Areas) to explain the interaction between social vulnerability conditions and health outcome due to
exposure to heat or cold.
2. Assesses effectiveness of emergency response in Newcastle.

9. 3.Methods
Objective Method Data Source
1. To assess the data requirement within the city
council and partner agency datasets for
understanding social vulnerability to cold and heat
wave.
- Consulted with NCC resilience
planning unit.
- Review existing literature to
identify research evidence.
NOMIS
(https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/).
Office of National Statistics (ONS)
(https://www.ons.gov.uk/)
2. To assess the interaction between social
vulnerability indicators as risk factors for heat and
cold mortality and morbidity and map the spatio-
temporal pattern of extreme temperature-related
health impacts.
Mapping SVI
- Spatial overlay of SVI
Clustering Analysis (Getis and Ord,
1992)
Heat wave - Urban Heat Island
Cold Wave – Fuel Poverty
Office of National Statistics (ONS)
(https://www.ons.gov.uk/)
NCC building data
Mapped SVI data
3. To assess council adaptation options. Mapping of Emergency Services in
Newcastle
- Proximity analysis of emergency
services to vulnerable Output Area
NCC priority address data
NCC GP practices dataset
NCC Rest Centres
ScaleandPopulationSizeusedbytheOfficeofNationalStatistics(OfficeforNationalStatistics,2011)

10. FindingsandDiscussion
• 13 Individual Social Vulnerability Factors Mapped
• 3 Composite Maps – Grouped according to Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity and Enhanced Exposure.
• Adaptation Option
Option 1 – Reduce enhanced exposure (e.g. Warm-front project)
Option 2 – Emergency response assessment

11. ChoosingSocialVulnerabilityFactors
Factor Vulnerability Heat / Cold
Age (Elderly and Youth) (Cutter et al., 2003; Chow et at., 2012; Hajat et al., 2007; wolf et al., 2013) Age 1 -5, 65+ Both
Population Density (Lemoine et al., 2015; Wolf et al, 2003) High Z Score Pop. Density Both
Disability and Long Term Health Problem (LTDH) (Reid et al., 2009; Ballester et al., 2003; O’'Neill et al.,
2003)
People with long term
health problem or disability
Both
Education (Michelozzi et al., 2005) Residents with 1 or less qualifications Both
Gender (Cutter et al., 2003; Dwyer et al., 2012; Kuhlicke et al., 2011; Morrow 1999) Number of population who are women Both
General Health (Dwyer et al., 2012; Lemoine et al., 2015) Population identifying themselves with bad
or very bad health.
Both
Language - English Proficiency (Lemoine et al., 2015; ) Number of persons who cannot speak English
well
Both
Ethnicity (Cutter et al., 2003; Morrow, 1999) Number of person with Black or Minority
Ethnic Status
Both
Household Occupancy Rating (Lemoine et al., 2015) Number of households with a
-1 rating or less
Both
Tenure (Lemoine et al., 2015; , ) Number of households socially and privately
renting
Both
Unemployment () Number of working age population
unemployed
Both
Vehicle Ownership () Number of households without access to a
vehicle
Both
Occupation (Lemoine et al., (2015); ) Both

12. SocialVulnerabilityGrouping
Lindley et al., (2011)
(Dwyer et al., 2004, p. 5).
Scale of Impact
Pathway of Impact
Social Vulnerability Assessment Framework for Extreme Temperature in Newcastle

13. Findings: Individual Social Vulnerability Factor
Where ‘μ’ is the mean of the
population.
‘σ’ is the standard deviation of
the population
Z Score
The ‘IF’ function was used to void the negative z-score. Otherwise a Negative Z-score
Would Lower the Overall Vulnerability Of a Particular OA. This ensure that no
vulnerable populations are left out or deemed less vulnerable

14. Comparing interaction of social indicators in Newcastle
housing tenure and Occupancy Rating
Tenure
Occupancy Rating

15. Findings: Correlation Analysis
High Positive correlation between
English Proficiency and Ethnicity
(BME)

16. SpatialandtemporalclusteringAnalysis-
Spatial Clustering

17. EnhancedExposure- Housing(Dwellingtype)andHealth
Negative correlation
between household
deprivation and
Housing density
• Positive correlation
between household
deprivation and poor
general health

18. AdaptationOptions–RespondingtoEmergencies
Emergency Activity Centres (EAC)
- Rest Centre Locations
• Studio West
• Walker Activity Dome
• Westgate Centre for Sport
• Newburn Leisure Centre
Proximity Assessment:
- Emergency Rest Centres are clustered in the Southern part of
Newcastle.
- When compared with Sensitivity composite of the SVI, they are
inaccessible to the vulnerable groups in the North-East.
- When compared to the adaptive capacity composite of the SVI,
they are in close proximity
Suggestion:
- increasing Rest Centre locations in three additional wards; North
Jesmond, East Gosforth, and Fawdon.

19. Summarysofar
Newcastle is faced with both risk of cold weather and heatwave (risk matrix rating)
As population is projected to increase, it means an increase in number of vulnerable groups,
particularly the elderly population
Correlation results show a poor positive correlation between age and poor health; age and death
rate, which could explain the dispersed pattern of sensitivity indicators.
Adaptive capacity indicators are generally more correlated. This implies that socio-economic-related
adaptive capability variables are more important for extreme temperature vulnerability (although
‘Enhanced Exposure’ is yet to be fully assessed).
Emergency assistance centre are inadequate and cluster away from most sensitive population such
as elderly and terminally ill.
Going Forward
Dwelling type assessment to extract evidence on housing-related social vulnerability
outcome. – (Lacking research evidence in this aspect of study)
Temporal Analysis of extreme temperature-related mortality and morbidity.

20. Questions ?.........

21. Acknowledgement
Durham University
Prof. Louise Bracken
Dr. Laura Turnbull
Prof. Glenn McGregor
Newcastle City Council
Kate Cochrane
Helen Hinds
Commonwealth Scholarship Commission