This document provides country default spreads and risk premiums based on bond ratings and credit default swap (CDS) spreads. It summarizes Moody's bond ratings and the corresponding estimated default spreads for different countries. It then explains two methods for estimating long-term country equity risk premiums: 1) using the sovereign rating and corresponding default spread or 2) using the CDS spread relative to the US. The total equity risk premium is calculated by adding the country default spread or risk premium to the baseline premium for mature markets.
Census 2016 and IRCC Data What it Says About Naturalization in Canada Andrew Griffith
This deck looks at the 2016 Census data and the characteristics of those who become (or not) citizens. Presented at the March 2018 Metropolis Conference, Calgary.
This document is a disclaimer stating that Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited does not guarantee the accuracy of the information in the attached research report and accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. The disclaimer advises that the report should not be relied upon as a substitute for professional advice or as the sole basis for investment decisions.
La economía boliviana vuelve a lograr otro hito histórico, porque este jueves 15 de mayo la calificadora internacional Standard &Poor’s (S&P) elevó la calificación de riesgo país de Bolivia de BB- a BB, una ubicación que el país alcanza por primera vez.
El informe de S&P destaca además el crecimiento sostenido del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), que en 2013 llegó al 6,8% (otro hito histórico); la amplia liquidez externa y los superávits fiscales y de cuenta corriente registrados en los últimos años, lo que da a la economía nacional una mayor capacidad para resistir shocks negativos.
The weekly investment bulletin provides an overview of market performance and news from the past week:
- Fears about the US economy caused investors to move into safe haven assets like government bonds and the yen, causing equities and commodities to fall sharply.
- Comments from the Federal Reserve chairman helped improve sentiment by signaling the central bank's willingness to further support the economy.
- Ireland was downgraded by S&P on concerns about its banking system, while most market indexes fell over the past week.
This market sizing research report is from KentleyInsights.com, which has over 3700 market research reports covering market size, growth, industry dynamics, profitability, operating costs, BCG matrix, inflation, forecasts, payroll, salaries, product line breakdown, coverage on over 200 countries, industry statistics, and much more.
AFC Asia Frontier Fund Factsheet 30.6.2018Thomas Hugger
AFC Asia Frontier Fund invests in listed equities from Bangladesh, Cambodia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.
Census 2016 and IRCC Data What it Says About Naturalization in Canada Andrew Griffith
This deck looks at the 2016 Census data and the characteristics of those who become (or not) citizens. Presented at the March 2018 Metropolis Conference, Calgary.
This document is a disclaimer stating that Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited does not guarantee the accuracy of the information in the attached research report and accepts no obligation to correct or update the information. The disclaimer advises that the report should not be relied upon as a substitute for professional advice or as the sole basis for investment decisions.
La economía boliviana vuelve a lograr otro hito histórico, porque este jueves 15 de mayo la calificadora internacional Standard &Poor’s (S&P) elevó la calificación de riesgo país de Bolivia de BB- a BB, una ubicación que el país alcanza por primera vez.
El informe de S&P destaca además el crecimiento sostenido del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), que en 2013 llegó al 6,8% (otro hito histórico); la amplia liquidez externa y los superávits fiscales y de cuenta corriente registrados en los últimos años, lo que da a la economía nacional una mayor capacidad para resistir shocks negativos.
The weekly investment bulletin provides an overview of market performance and news from the past week:
- Fears about the US economy caused investors to move into safe haven assets like government bonds and the yen, causing equities and commodities to fall sharply.
- Comments from the Federal Reserve chairman helped improve sentiment by signaling the central bank's willingness to further support the economy.
- Ireland was downgraded by S&P on concerns about its banking system, while most market indexes fell over the past week.
This market sizing research report is from KentleyInsights.com, which has over 3700 market research reports covering market size, growth, industry dynamics, profitability, operating costs, BCG matrix, inflation, forecasts, payroll, salaries, product line breakdown, coverage on over 200 countries, industry statistics, and much more.
AFC Asia Frontier Fund Factsheet 30.6.2018Thomas Hugger
AFC Asia Frontier Fund invests in listed equities from Bangladesh, Cambodia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.
The document reports on global newspaper circulation trends from 2003-2007 based on a survey conducted by the World Association of Newspapers. It finds that:
- Paid daily newspaper circulations increased 2.57% over one year and 9.39% over five years globally.
- The number of paid daily newspaper titles increased 2.98% over one year and 11.02% over five years worldwide.
- Most regions saw increases in paid circulations and titles, with the exceptions of declines in Europe, North America, and Australasia. Asia saw the largest increases in paid circulations and titles.
Liberty Bank reported Q1 2014 results with net income of GEL 3.6 million, down 69.2% quarter-over-quarter but up 1870.9% year-over-year. Total operating income was GEL 32 million, up 14.2% quarter-over-quarter and 83.7% year-over-year, driven by increases in net interest and non-interest income. Total assets grew 5.8% quarter-over-quarter to GEL 1.37 billion as of March 31, 2014. The bank expects to improve its balance sheet structure and forecasts 2014 net income of GEL 20.7 million.
AFC Asia Frontier Fund Factsheet - May 2017Thomas Hugger
AFC Asia Frontier Fund invests in listed equities of Asian frontier markets like Bangladesh, Cambodia, Iraq, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.
The document analyzes growth opportunities in frontier markets. It provides GDP growth estimates and other economic data for various frontier countries in Africa, Asia, and Central America. These countries show strong GDP growth, averaging over 7% annually for 2013-2015. The document concludes that Africa stands out as a continent with ongoing reforms, foreign investment, and economic progress, despite issues like corruption. It predicts foreign direct investment in Africa will significantly increase in coming years.
Presentación Dunas Capital en Valencia (9 de marzo) Rankia
This document provides market performance data and analysis across various asset classes and regions. Key points include:
- Major stock market indices in developed markets showed returns of 15-20% over the past 12 months, while emerging markets indices returned around 10-15%.
- Fixed income markets were more mixed, with sovereign debt in core developed markets outperforming peripheral European sovereign debt and emerging market debt.
- The portfolio described is overweight equities and credits, with an underweight to sovereign debt and emerging markets debt. Exposure is tilted towards developed over emerging markets.
This document provides a summary of business aviation traffic in Europe in December 2017 and for the full year 2017. Some key points:
- Business aviation traffic grew 1.5% in December 2017 compared to December 2016.
- For the full year 2017, there was an average of 100 additional daily business aviation departures compared to 2016, representing an average 6% traffic increase.
- December 2017 saw 46,165 total flights, marking two years of uninterrupted monthly traffic growth. The top 10 airports all experienced traffic growth for 2017, ranging from 1.3% to 17.1%.
- The document provides information on the Tulip Trend Fund A EUR, including its monthly net returns from 2002-2016, key figures such as annual returns and maximum drawdown, and fund facts.
- The fund uses a quantitative trend following strategy across global futures and forwards markets to participate systematically in trending markets.
- Over its lifetime, the fund has generated an annualized return of 1.558999% and maximum drawdown of -11.01%, with relatively low correlation to major stock and hedge fund indices.
The document summarizes key statistics and trends in the global timeshare industry. It finds that the timeshare industry is largest in North America, particularly the United States, which accounts for nearly half of global timeshare sales volume and units. However, the industry is growing in other regions such as Asia, Europe, and South America. The presentation also outlines various challenges and opportunities for the timeshare industry going forward, such as developing the secondary market and supporting legacy resorts. Finally, it expresses an optimistic outlook for the continued growth of the timeshare industry.
The document discusses opportunities in Latin American and emerging markets. It notes that recent adjustments in currencies and stock prices are healthy and help avoid distortions. While markets have adjusted, Latin America's economic fundamentals remain strong, with young populations, low inflation, moderate growth, and manageable debt levels. The diversity of industries in Latin America like commodities, manufacturing and services provides opportunities for investment.
The document describes the SGMT (Systematic Global Markets Trend) investment strategy. It uses advanced methods to identify macroeconomic trends and trade currencies. The strategy employs signal identification methods to determine probable market directions and manages risk through automatic leverage adjustments. The strategy is fully systematic and integrated into real-time trading and risk management systems. It has delivered strong returns since inception in 2014.
AFC Asia Frontier Fund: Factsheet as of 31.07.2020Thomas Hugger
The document provides information on the AFC Asia Frontier Fund, an investment fund focused on public equities in emerging Asian frontier markets. Key details include: the fund's monthly subscription and redemption terms, its benchmark index, fund managers and investment manager, available share classes and their fees, fund size and performance since inception in 2012. The summary also includes commentary on the fund's July 2020 performance and positioning at the end of the month.
The document discusses the debt outlook and economic indicators of various European Union countries and other major economies. It finds that several EU countries have high government deficits as a percentage of GDP, including Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. It also notes that structural issues like high unemployment rates pose ongoing threats in some EU nations. Finally, it shows that financial markets have become more sensitive to risk in the sovereign debt of other EU countries as the debt crisis has continued.
(1) Basic economic index of 54 countries on African continent
- Population
- GDP
- GDP Growth
- GDP per Capita
(2) Japanese main cities for trading and business with Africa
(3) Trend of number of Japanese companies in Africa (2005-2015)
The document shows the monthly and annualized performance of various investment strategies managed by Brinker Capital over different time periods. It includes conservative to aggressive taxable and qualified mutual fund portfolios as well as specialized strategies and major market indices for comparison. Brinker Capital provides customized asset allocation programs using mutual funds selected from different fund families to meet investor needs and risk tolerances.
Development in the Supply Chain of the Philippine Agri-tourism Industry:Elmer Esplana
The document presents an assessment of developments in the supply chain of the Philippine agri-tourism industry. It discusses objectives of assessing the supply chain, which includes providing baseline information on developments from input supply to production, processing, marketing and consumption. It also reviews the tourism situation in the Philippines and internationally, and analyzes arrivals, receipts and occupancy rates. It defines agri-tourism, discusses the industry in the Philippines, and assesses the supply chain components of input supply, production, processing and marketing in the local agri-tourism sector.
The QE index rose 0.3% to close at 10,072.1 led by gains in the Real Estate and Banking & Financial Services indices. Qatar Cinema & Film Dist. Co. and Doha Insurance Co. were the top gainers rising 3.8% and 2.2% respectively, while Vodafone Qatar fell 2.2%. Regional markets were mixed with Saudi Arabia up 0.7% and Kuwait up 0.2% but Dubai down 0.8% and Abu Dhabi down 0.8%. Earnings news was reported from companies in Qatar, UAE, Oman, Bahrain.
The document provides an overview of the global fragrance market in 3 pages. It shows that in 2018, the global fragrance market was worth €113 billion, with the mass market representing 58% and premium 42%. The fragrance category represents 10% of the global beauty and personal care market. The market is growing steadily, with forecasts showing continued growth until 2023, especially in Asia Pacific and Latin America. The top brands globally are Chanel, Christian Dior, Paco Rabanne, and Armani.
The QE Index in Qatar declined 0.4% led by losses in the Transportation and Banks & Financial Services indices. Qatar General Insurance and Reinsurance Co. and Ahli Bank were the top losers. Regional markets in Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Bahrain rose while markets in Dubai, Oman, and Kuwait declined. Global economic data showed initial US jobless claims increased while durable goods orders declined significantly. S&P affirmed its credit ratings on Qatar with a stable outlook.
The Building Blocks of QuestDB, a Time Series Databasejavier ramirez
Talk Delivered at Valencia Codes Meetup 2024-06.
Traditionally, databases have treated timestamps just as another data type. However, when performing real-time analytics, timestamps should be first class citizens and we need rich time semantics to get the most out of our data. We also need to deal with ever growing datasets while keeping performant, which is as fun as it sounds.
It is no wonder time-series databases are now more popular than ever before. Join me in this session to learn about the internal architecture and building blocks of QuestDB, an open source time-series database designed for speed. We will also review a history of some of the changes we have gone over the past two years to deal with late and unordered data, non-blocking writes, read-replicas, or faster batch ingestion.
The document reports on global newspaper circulation trends from 2003-2007 based on a survey conducted by the World Association of Newspapers. It finds that:
- Paid daily newspaper circulations increased 2.57% over one year and 9.39% over five years globally.
- The number of paid daily newspaper titles increased 2.98% over one year and 11.02% over five years worldwide.
- Most regions saw increases in paid circulations and titles, with the exceptions of declines in Europe, North America, and Australasia. Asia saw the largest increases in paid circulations and titles.
Liberty Bank reported Q1 2014 results with net income of GEL 3.6 million, down 69.2% quarter-over-quarter but up 1870.9% year-over-year. Total operating income was GEL 32 million, up 14.2% quarter-over-quarter and 83.7% year-over-year, driven by increases in net interest and non-interest income. Total assets grew 5.8% quarter-over-quarter to GEL 1.37 billion as of March 31, 2014. The bank expects to improve its balance sheet structure and forecasts 2014 net income of GEL 20.7 million.
AFC Asia Frontier Fund Factsheet - May 2017Thomas Hugger
AFC Asia Frontier Fund invests in listed equities of Asian frontier markets like Bangladesh, Cambodia, Iraq, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.
The document analyzes growth opportunities in frontier markets. It provides GDP growth estimates and other economic data for various frontier countries in Africa, Asia, and Central America. These countries show strong GDP growth, averaging over 7% annually for 2013-2015. The document concludes that Africa stands out as a continent with ongoing reforms, foreign investment, and economic progress, despite issues like corruption. It predicts foreign direct investment in Africa will significantly increase in coming years.
Presentación Dunas Capital en Valencia (9 de marzo) Rankia
This document provides market performance data and analysis across various asset classes and regions. Key points include:
- Major stock market indices in developed markets showed returns of 15-20% over the past 12 months, while emerging markets indices returned around 10-15%.
- Fixed income markets were more mixed, with sovereign debt in core developed markets outperforming peripheral European sovereign debt and emerging market debt.
- The portfolio described is overweight equities and credits, with an underweight to sovereign debt and emerging markets debt. Exposure is tilted towards developed over emerging markets.
This document provides a summary of business aviation traffic in Europe in December 2017 and for the full year 2017. Some key points:
- Business aviation traffic grew 1.5% in December 2017 compared to December 2016.
- For the full year 2017, there was an average of 100 additional daily business aviation departures compared to 2016, representing an average 6% traffic increase.
- December 2017 saw 46,165 total flights, marking two years of uninterrupted monthly traffic growth. The top 10 airports all experienced traffic growth for 2017, ranging from 1.3% to 17.1%.
- The document provides information on the Tulip Trend Fund A EUR, including its monthly net returns from 2002-2016, key figures such as annual returns and maximum drawdown, and fund facts.
- The fund uses a quantitative trend following strategy across global futures and forwards markets to participate systematically in trending markets.
- Over its lifetime, the fund has generated an annualized return of 1.558999% and maximum drawdown of -11.01%, with relatively low correlation to major stock and hedge fund indices.
The document summarizes key statistics and trends in the global timeshare industry. It finds that the timeshare industry is largest in North America, particularly the United States, which accounts for nearly half of global timeshare sales volume and units. However, the industry is growing in other regions such as Asia, Europe, and South America. The presentation also outlines various challenges and opportunities for the timeshare industry going forward, such as developing the secondary market and supporting legacy resorts. Finally, it expresses an optimistic outlook for the continued growth of the timeshare industry.
The document discusses opportunities in Latin American and emerging markets. It notes that recent adjustments in currencies and stock prices are healthy and help avoid distortions. While markets have adjusted, Latin America's economic fundamentals remain strong, with young populations, low inflation, moderate growth, and manageable debt levels. The diversity of industries in Latin America like commodities, manufacturing and services provides opportunities for investment.
The document describes the SGMT (Systematic Global Markets Trend) investment strategy. It uses advanced methods to identify macroeconomic trends and trade currencies. The strategy employs signal identification methods to determine probable market directions and manages risk through automatic leverage adjustments. The strategy is fully systematic and integrated into real-time trading and risk management systems. It has delivered strong returns since inception in 2014.
AFC Asia Frontier Fund: Factsheet as of 31.07.2020Thomas Hugger
The document provides information on the AFC Asia Frontier Fund, an investment fund focused on public equities in emerging Asian frontier markets. Key details include: the fund's monthly subscription and redemption terms, its benchmark index, fund managers and investment manager, available share classes and their fees, fund size and performance since inception in 2012. The summary also includes commentary on the fund's July 2020 performance and positioning at the end of the month.
The document discusses the debt outlook and economic indicators of various European Union countries and other major economies. It finds that several EU countries have high government deficits as a percentage of GDP, including Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. It also notes that structural issues like high unemployment rates pose ongoing threats in some EU nations. Finally, it shows that financial markets have become more sensitive to risk in the sovereign debt of other EU countries as the debt crisis has continued.
(1) Basic economic index of 54 countries on African continent
- Population
- GDP
- GDP Growth
- GDP per Capita
(2) Japanese main cities for trading and business with Africa
(3) Trend of number of Japanese companies in Africa (2005-2015)
The document shows the monthly and annualized performance of various investment strategies managed by Brinker Capital over different time periods. It includes conservative to aggressive taxable and qualified mutual fund portfolios as well as specialized strategies and major market indices for comparison. Brinker Capital provides customized asset allocation programs using mutual funds selected from different fund families to meet investor needs and risk tolerances.
Development in the Supply Chain of the Philippine Agri-tourism Industry:Elmer Esplana
The document presents an assessment of developments in the supply chain of the Philippine agri-tourism industry. It discusses objectives of assessing the supply chain, which includes providing baseline information on developments from input supply to production, processing, marketing and consumption. It also reviews the tourism situation in the Philippines and internationally, and analyzes arrivals, receipts and occupancy rates. It defines agri-tourism, discusses the industry in the Philippines, and assesses the supply chain components of input supply, production, processing and marketing in the local agri-tourism sector.
The QE index rose 0.3% to close at 10,072.1 led by gains in the Real Estate and Banking & Financial Services indices. Qatar Cinema & Film Dist. Co. and Doha Insurance Co. were the top gainers rising 3.8% and 2.2% respectively, while Vodafone Qatar fell 2.2%. Regional markets were mixed with Saudi Arabia up 0.7% and Kuwait up 0.2% but Dubai down 0.8% and Abu Dhabi down 0.8%. Earnings news was reported from companies in Qatar, UAE, Oman, Bahrain.
The document provides an overview of the global fragrance market in 3 pages. It shows that in 2018, the global fragrance market was worth €113 billion, with the mass market representing 58% and premium 42%. The fragrance category represents 10% of the global beauty and personal care market. The market is growing steadily, with forecasts showing continued growth until 2023, especially in Asia Pacific and Latin America. The top brands globally are Chanel, Christian Dior, Paco Rabanne, and Armani.
The QE Index in Qatar declined 0.4% led by losses in the Transportation and Banks & Financial Services indices. Qatar General Insurance and Reinsurance Co. and Ahli Bank were the top losers. Regional markets in Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Bahrain rose while markets in Dubai, Oman, and Kuwait declined. Global economic data showed initial US jobless claims increased while durable goods orders declined significantly. S&P affirmed its credit ratings on Qatar with a stable outlook.
The Building Blocks of QuestDB, a Time Series Databasejavier ramirez
Talk Delivered at Valencia Codes Meetup 2024-06.
Traditionally, databases have treated timestamps just as another data type. However, when performing real-time analytics, timestamps should be first class citizens and we need rich time semantics to get the most out of our data. We also need to deal with ever growing datasets while keeping performant, which is as fun as it sounds.
It is no wonder time-series databases are now more popular than ever before. Join me in this session to learn about the internal architecture and building blocks of QuestDB, an open source time-series database designed for speed. We will also review a history of some of the changes we have gone over the past two years to deal with late and unordered data, non-blocking writes, read-replicas, or faster batch ingestion.
The Ipsos - AI - Monitor 2024 Report.pdfSocial Samosa
According to Ipsos AI Monitor's 2024 report, 65% Indians said that products and services using AI have profoundly changed their daily life in the past 3-5 years.
Beyond the Basics of A/B Tests: Highly Innovative Experimentation Tactics You...Aggregage
This webinar will explore cutting-edge, less familiar but powerful experimentation methodologies which address well-known limitations of standard A/B Testing. Designed for data and product leaders, this session aims to inspire the embrace of innovative approaches and provide insights into the frontiers of experimentation!
Predictably Improve Your B2B Tech Company's Performance by Leveraging DataKiwi Creative
Harness the power of AI-backed reports, benchmarking and data analysis to predict trends and detect anomalies in your marketing efforts.
Peter Caputa, CEO at Databox, reveals how you can discover the strategies and tools to increase your growth rate (and margins!).
From metrics to track to data habits to pick up, enhance your reporting for powerful insights to improve your B2B tech company's marketing.
- - -
This is the webinar recording from the June 2024 HubSpot User Group (HUG) for B2B Technology USA.
Watch the video recording at https://youtu.be/5vjwGfPN9lw
Sign up for future HUG events at https://events.hubspot.com/b2b-technology-usa/
End-to-end pipeline agility - Berlin Buzzwords 2024Lars Albertsson
We describe how we achieve high change agility in data engineering by eliminating the fear of breaking downstream data pipelines through end-to-end pipeline testing, and by using schema metaprogramming to safely eliminate boilerplate involved in changes that affect whole pipelines.
A quick poll on agility in changing pipelines from end to end indicated a huge span in capabilities. For the question "How long time does it take for all downstream pipelines to be adapted to an upstream change," the median response was 6 months, but some respondents could do it in less than a day. When quantitative data engineering differences between the best and worst are measured, the span is often 100x-1000x, sometimes even more.
A long time ago, we suffered at Spotify from fear of changing pipelines due to not knowing what the impact might be downstream. We made plans for a technical solution to test pipelines end-to-end to mitigate that fear, but the effort failed for cultural reasons. We eventually solved this challenge, but in a different context. In this presentation we will describe how we test full pipelines effectively by manipulating workflow orchestration, which enables us to make changes in pipelines without fear of breaking downstream.
Making schema changes that affect many jobs also involves a lot of toil and boilerplate. Using schema-on-read mitigates some of it, but has drawbacks since it makes it more difficult to detect errors early. We will describe how we have rejected this tradeoff by applying schema metaprogramming, eliminating boilerplate but keeping the protection of static typing, thereby further improving agility to quickly modify data pipelines without fear.
ViewShift: Hassle-free Dynamic Policy Enforcement for Every Data LakeWalaa Eldin Moustafa
Dynamic policy enforcement is becoming an increasingly important topic in today’s world where data privacy and compliance is a top priority for companies, individuals, and regulators alike. In these slides, we discuss how LinkedIn implements a powerful dynamic policy enforcement engine, called ViewShift, and integrates it within its data lake. We show the query engine architecture and how catalog implementations can automatically route table resolutions to compliance-enforcing SQL views. Such views have a set of very interesting properties: (1) They are auto-generated from declarative data annotations. (2) They respect user-level consent and preferences (3) They are context-aware, encoding a different set of transformations for different use cases (4) They are portable; while the SQL logic is only implemented in one SQL dialect, it is accessible in all engines.
#SQL #Views #Privacy #Compliance #DataLake
Enhanced Enterprise Intelligence with your personal AI Data Copilot.pdfGetInData
Recently we have observed the rise of open-source Large Language Models (LLMs) that are community-driven or developed by the AI market leaders, such as Meta (Llama3), Databricks (DBRX) and Snowflake (Arctic). On the other hand, there is a growth in interest in specialized, carefully fine-tuned yet relatively small models that can efficiently assist programmers in day-to-day tasks. Finally, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) architectures have gained a lot of traction as the preferred approach for LLMs context and prompt augmentation for building conversational SQL data copilots, code copilots and chatbots.
In this presentation, we will show how we built upon these three concepts a robust Data Copilot that can help to democratize access to company data assets and boost performance of everyone working with data platforms.
Why do we need yet another (open-source ) Copilot?
How can we build one?
Architecture and evaluation
Global Situational Awareness of A.I. and where its headedvikram sood
You can see the future first in San Francisco.
Over the past year, the talk of the town has shifted from $10 billion compute clusters to $100 billion clusters to trillion-dollar clusters. Every six months another zero is added to the boardroom plans. Behind the scenes, there’s a fierce scramble to secure every power contract still available for the rest of the decade, every voltage transformer that can possibly be procured. American big business is gearing up to pour trillions of dollars into a long-unseen mobilization of American industrial might. By the end of the decade, American electricity production will have grown tens of percent; from the shale fields of Pennsylvania to the solar farms of Nevada, hundreds of millions of GPUs will hum.
The AGI race has begun. We are building machines that can think and reason. By 2025/26, these machines will outpace college graduates. By the end of the decade, they will be smarter than you or I; we will have superintelligence, in the true sense of the word. Along the way, national security forces not seen in half a century will be un-leashed, and before long, The Project will be on. If we’re lucky, we’ll be in an all-out race with the CCP; if we’re unlucky, an all-out war.
Everyone is now talking about AI, but few have the faintest glimmer of what is about to hit them. Nvidia analysts still think 2024 might be close to the peak. Mainstream pundits are stuck on the wilful blindness of “it’s just predicting the next word”. They see only hype and business-as-usual; at most they entertain another internet-scale technological change.
Before long, the world will wake up. But right now, there are perhaps a few hundred people, most of them in San Francisco and the AI labs, that have situational awareness. Through whatever peculiar forces of fate, I have found myself amongst them. A few years ago, these people were derided as crazy—but they trusted the trendlines, which allowed them to correctly predict the AI advances of the past few years. Whether these people are also right about the next few years remains to be seen. But these are very smart people—the smartest people I have ever met—and they are the ones building this technology. Perhaps they will be an odd footnote in history, or perhaps they will go down in history like Szilard and Oppenheimer and Teller. If they are seeing the future even close to correctly, we are in for a wild ride.
Let me tell you what we see.
1. Country Default Spreads and Risk Premiums
Last updated: July 2016
This table summarizes the latest bond ratings and appropriate default spreads for different countries. While you can use
these numbers as rough estimates of country risk premiums, you may want to modify the premia to reflect the additonal
risk of equity markets. To estimate the long term country equity risk premium, I start with a default spread, which I
obtain in one of two ways:
(1) I use the local currency sovereign rating (from Moody's: www.moodys.com) and estimate the default spread for that
rating (based upon traded country bonds) over a default free government bond rate. For countries without a Moody's
rating but with an S&P rating, I use the Moody's equivalent of the S&P rating. To get the default spreads by sovereign
rating, I use the CDS spreads and compute the average CDS spread by rating. Using that number as a basis, I
extrapolate for those ratings for which I have no CDS spreads.
(2) I start with the CDS spread for the country, if one is available and subtract out the US CDS spread, since my mature
market premium is derived from the US market. That difference becomes the country spread. For the few countries that
have CDS spreads that are lower than the US, I will get a negative number.
You can add just this default spread to the mature market premium to arrive at the total equity risk premium. I add an
additional step. In the short term especially, the equity country risk premium is likely to be greater than the country's
default spread. You can estimate an adjusted country risk premium by multiplying the default spread by the relative
equity market volatility for that market (Std dev in country equity market/Std dev in country bond). I have used the
emerging market average of 1.34 (estimated by comparing a emerging market equity index to an emerging market
government/public bond index) to estimate country risk premium.I have added this to my estimated risk premium of
6.0% for mature markets (obtained by looking at the implied premium for the S&P 500) to get the total risk premium.
2. Country Africa
Moody's
rating
Rating-based
Default
Spread
Total
Equity
Risk
Premium
Country Risk
Premium
CDS
Default
Spread
(net of
US)
Total Equity
Risk
Premium
Country
Risk
Premium
Abu Dhabi Middle East Aa2 0.56% 7.03% 0.78% 1.29% 8.06% 1.81%
Albania Eastern Europe & Russia B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Andorra (Principality
of) Western Europe Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% NA NA NA
Angola Africa B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Argentina Central and South America B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% 4.95% 13.18% 6.93%
Armenia Eastern Europe & Russia B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Aruba Caribbean Baa1 1.79% 8.76% 2.51% NA NA NA
Australia Australia & New Zealand Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.65% 7.16% 0.91%
Austria Western Europe Aa1 0.45% 6.88% 0.63% 0.63% 7.13% 0.88%
Azerbaijan Eastern Europe & Russia Ba1 2.80% 10.17% 3.92% NA NA NA
Bahamas Caribbean Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% NA NA NA
Bahrain Middle East Ba2 3.37% 10.97% 4.72% 4.37% 12.37% 6.12%
Bangladesh Asia Ba3 4.04% 11.91% 5.66% NA NA NA
Barbados Caribbean Caa1 8.41% 18.02% 11.77% NA NA NA
Belarus Eastern Europe & Russia Caa1 8.41% 18.02% 11.77% NA NA NA
Belgium Western Europe Aa3 0.68% 7.20% 0.95% 0.89% 7.50% 1.25%
Belize Central and South America Caa2 10.10% 20.39% 14.14% NA NA NA
Bermuda Caribbean A2 0.95% 7.58% 1.33% NA NA NA
Bolivia Central and South America Ba3 4.04% 11.91% 5.66% NA NA NA
Bosnia and
Herzegovina Eastern Europe & Russia B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
3. Botswana Africa A2 0.95% 7.58% 1.33% NA NA NA
Brazil Central and South America Ba2 3.37% 10.97% 4.72% 3.94% 11.77% 5.52%
Bulgaria Eastern Europe & Russia Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% 2.06% 9.13% 2.88%
Burkina Faso Africa B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
Cambodia Asia B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Cameroon Africa B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Canada North America Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% NA NA NA
Cayman Islands Caribbean Aa3 0.68% 7.20% 0.95% NA NA NA
Cape Verde Africa B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Chile Central and South America Aa3 0.68% 7.20% 0.95% 1.37% 8.17% 1.92%
China Asia Aa3 0.68% 7.20% 0.95% 1.66% 8.57% 2.32%
Colombia Central and South America Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% 2.77% 10.13% 3.88%
Congo (Democratic
Republic of) Africa B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
Congo (Republic of) Africa B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Cook Islands Australia & New Zealand B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Costa Rica Central and South America Ba1 2.80% 10.17% 3.92% 4.26% 12.21% 5.96%
Côte d'Ivoire Africa Ba3 4.04% 11.91% 5.66% NA NA NA
Croatia Eastern Europe & Russia Ba2 3.37% 10.97% 4.72% 2.88% 10.28% 4.03%
Cuba Caribbean Caa2 10.10% 20.39% 14.14% NA NA NA
Curacao Caribbean A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% NA NA NA
Cyprus Western Europe B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% 3.31% 10.88% 4.63%
Czech Republic Eastern Europe & Russia A1 0.79% 7.36% 1.11% 0.88% 7.48% 1.23%
Denmark Western Europe Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.47% 6.91% 0.66%
Dominican Republic Caribbean B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Ecuador Central and South America B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
4. Egypt Africa B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% 5.39% 13.80% 7.55%
El Salvador Central and South America Ba3 4.04% 11.91% 5.66% NA NA NA
Estonia Eastern Europe & Russia A1 0.79% 7.36% 1.11% 0.86% 7.45% 1.20%
Ethiopia Africa B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Fiji Asia B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Finland Western Europe Aa1 0.45% 6.88% 0.63% 0.52% 6.98% 0.73%
France Western Europe Aa2 0.56% 7.03% 0.78% 0.78% 7.34% 1.09%
Gabon Africa B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Georgia Eastern Europe & Russia Ba3 4.04% 11.91% 5.66% NA NA NA
Germany Western Europe Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.48% 6.92% 0.67%
Ghana Africa B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
Greece Western Europe Caa3 11.21% 21.94% 15.69% NA NA NA
Guatemala Central and South America Ba1 2.80% 10.17% 3.92% NA NA NA
Guernsey (States of) Western Europe Aa1 0.45% 6.88% 0.63% NA NA NA
Honduras Central and South America B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Hong Kong Asia Aa1 0.45% 6.88% 0.63% 0.73% 7.27% 1.02%
Hungary Eastern Europe & Russia Ba1 2.80% 10.17% 3.92% 2.03% 9.09% 2.84%
Iceland Western Europe Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% 1.33% 8.11% 1.86%
India Asia Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% 2.34% 9.53% 3.28%
Indonesia Asia Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% 2.52% 9.78% 3.53%
Iraq Middle East B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
Ireland Western Europe A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% 1.23% 7.97% 1.72%
Isle of Man Western Europe Aa1 0.45% 6.88% 0.63% NA NA NA
Israel Middle East A1 0.79% 7.36% 1.11% 1.23% 7.97% 1.72%
Italy Western Europe Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% 2.14% 9.25% 3.00%
Jamaica Caribbean Caa2 10.10% 20.39% 14.14% NA NA NA
5. Japan Asia A1 0.79% 7.36% 1.11% 0.76% 7.31% 1.06%
Jersey (States of) Western Europe Aa1 0.45% 6.88% 0.63% NA NA NA
Jordan Middle East B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Kazakhstan Eastern Europe & Russia Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% 2.79% 10.16% 3.91%
Kenya Africa B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Korea Asia Aa2 0.56% 7.03% 0.78% 0.79% 7.36% 1.11%
Kuwait Middle East Aa2 0.56% 7.03% 0.78% NA NA NA
Kyrgyzstan Eastern Europe & Russia B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Latvia Eastern Europe & Russia A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% 1.19% 7.92% 1.67%
Lebanon Middle East B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% 5.26% 13.61% 7.36%
Liechtenstein Western Europe Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% NA NA NA
Lithuania Eastern Europe & Russia A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% 1.09% 7.78% 1.53%
Luxembourg Western Europe Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% NA NA NA
Macao Asia Aa3 0.68% 7.20% 0.95% NA NA NA
Macedonia Eastern Europe & Russia Ba3 4.04% 11.91% 5.66% NA NA NA
Malaysia Asia A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% 2.09% 9.18% 2.93%
Malta Western Europe A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% NA NA NA
Mauritius Asia Baa1 1.79% 8.76% 2.51% NA NA NA
Mexico Central and South America A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% 2.32% 9.50% 3.25%
Moldova Eastern Europe & Russia B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
Mongolia Asia B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Montenegro Eastern Europe & Russia Ba3 4.04% 11.91% 5.66% NA NA NA
Montserrat Caribbean Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% NA NA NA
Morocco Africa Ba1 2.80% 10.17% 3.92% 2.32% 9.50% 3.25%
Mozambique Africa Caa1 8.41% 18.02% 11.77% NA NA NA
Namibia Africa Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% NA NA NA
6. Netherlands Western Europe Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.53% 6.99% 0.74%
New Zealand Australia & New Zealand Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.73% 7.27% 1.02%
Nicaragua Central and South America B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Nigeria Africa B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Norway Western Europe Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.43% 6.85% 0.60%
Oman Middle East Baa1 1.79% 8.76% 2.51% NA NA NA
Pakistan Asia B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% 5.92% 14.54% 8.29%
Panama Central and South America Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% 2.19% 9.32% 3.07%
Papua New Guinea Asia B2 6.17% 14.89% 8.64% NA NA NA
Paraguay Central and South America Ba1 2.80% 10.17% 3.92% NA NA NA
Peru Central and South America A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% 2.03% 9.09% 2.84%
Philippines Asia Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% 1.65% 8.56% 2.31%
Poland Eastern Europe & Russia A2 0.95% 7.58% 1.33% 1.44% 8.27% 2.02%
Portugal Western Europe Ba1 2.80% 10.17% 3.92% 3.91% 11.72% 5.47%
Qatar Middle East Aa2 0.56% 7.03% 0.78% 1.61% 8.50% 2.25%
Ras Al Khaimah
(Emirate of) Middle East A2 0.95% 7.58% 1.33% NA NA NA
Romania Eastern Europe & Russia Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% 1.67% 8.59% 2.34%
Russia Eastern Europe & Russia Ba1 2.80% 10.17% 3.92% 2.92% 10.34% 4.09%
Rwanda Africa B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Saudi Arabia Middle East A1 0.79% 7.36% 1.11% 2.06% 9.13% 2.88%
Senegal Africa B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Serbia Eastern Europe & Russia B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Sharjah Middle East A3 1.35% 8.14% 1.89% NA NA NA
Singapore Asia Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% NA NA NA
Slovakia Eastern Europe & Russia A2 0.95% 7.58% 1.33% 0.95% 7.58% 1.33%
7. Slovenia Eastern Europe & Russia Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% 1.52% 8.38% 2.13%
South Africa Africa Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% 3.40% 11.01% 4.76%
Spain Western Europe Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% 1.62% 8.52% 2.27%
Sri Lanka Asia B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
St. Maarten Caribbean Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% NA NA NA
St. Vincent & the
Grenadines Caribbean B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
Suriname Central and South America B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Sweden Western Europe Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.46% 6.89% 0.64%
Switzerland Western Europe Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.62% 7.12% 0.87%
Taiwan Asia Aa3 0.68% 7.20% 0.95% NA NA NA
Thailand Asia Baa1 1.79% 8.76% 2.51% 1.68% 8.60% 2.35%
Trinidad and Tobago Caribbean Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% NA NA NA
Tunisia Africa Ba3 4.04% 11.91% 5.66% 5.77% 14.33% 8.08%
Turkey Western Europe Baa3 2.47% 9.71% 3.46% 3.01% 10.46% 4.21%
Turks and Caicos
Islands Caribbean Baa1 1.79% 8.76% 2.51% NA NA NA
Uganda Africa B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% NA NA NA
Ukraine Eastern Europe & Russia Caa3 11.21% 21.94% 15.69% NA NA NA
United Arab Emirates Middle East Aa2 0.56% 7.03% 0.78% NA NA NA
United Kingdom Western Europe Aa1 0.45% 6.88% 0.63% 0.85% 7.44% 1.19%
United States of
America North America Aaa 0.00% 6.25% 0.00% 0.44% 6.87% 0.62%
Uruguay Central and South America Baa2 2.13% 9.23% 2.98% NA NA NA
Venezuela Central and South America Caa3 11.21% 21.94% 15.69% 32.59% 51.88% 45.63%
Vietnam Asia B1 5.05% 13.32% 7.07% 2.99% 10.44% 4.19%
Zambia Africa B3 7.29% 16.46% 10.21% NA NA NA
8. For more details, download the excel spreadsheet that contains this data on my
website: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/ctrypremJuly16.xls
If you are interested in my approach to computing the equity risk premium, download my magnum opus (just kidding):
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2742186
And my paper on measuring country risk
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2812261
Last updated: July 2016
Aswath Damodaran