Presentation I made in 2107 on likely impact of robotics on jobs in oil industry

1. Resist, surrender, hide or collaborate?
Will robots take our jobs?
Resist, surrender, hide or collaborate?
Will robots take MY job?
Pete McEldowney
MSc in Robotics
I work in drilling (25 years)

2. Why robots at work?

3. Applications…

4. Demographics ,politics, economics too

5. Fear then acceptance
Every problem passes through three stages
on the way to acceptance:
First, it appears laughable;
second, it is fought against;
third, it is considered self-evident.
1913 “Allgemeine Verkehrsgeographie” credited to Schopenhauer

6. History of change
• the printing press put scribes out of business, but new jobs
were soon developed to take their place
• Manual typesetting replaced by software eighties
• Effect of internet
• mechanization of agriculture didn’t ruin society or economy
• textile industry underwent significant technological changes

7. Resist
Who has successfully resisted economic change?
• Scribes
• Luddites saboteurs
• Farm labourers horsemen
• Printers
• Journalists
• Miners
• Unions
• those with commercial interests in existing products
• those who identify with existing products
• those who might lose power as a result of change
• don’t fear new technology, they fear the loss it will bring

8. "The coming revolution"
• Rejection of all modern technology — "This is logically necessary,
because modern technology is a whole in which all parts are
interconnected; you can’t get rid of the bad parts without also
giving up those parts that seem good."
• Rejection of civilization itself
• Rejection of materialism and its replacement with a conception of
life that values moderation and self-sufficiency while deprecating
the acquisition of property or of status.
• Love and reverence toward nature or even worship of nature
• Exaltation of freedom
• Punishment of those responsible for the present situation.
"Scientists, engineers, corporation executives, politicians, and so
forth to make the cost of improving technology too great for
anyone to try"

9. Hide
• Off grid, prepper, survivalist
• Amish
• But, less developed countries want what we
have …

10. Surrender
• Let the robots take over work (and war?)
• Take free money (if offered)
• Let them get on with it – increasing productivity
• End of work?
• End of society?
• Utopia or dystopia?
• Can we entertain ourselves?
• How will we feel?

11. Collaborate
• Citizens should shape technology so it benefits
them
• Develop productive interactions with power –
Foucault – ensure change affects those
making the change too
• Equip people with context to allow them to
live a good technologically integrated life
• Technologists - think about the impact
inventions have on society

12. Anticipate and adapt
• Adapt
• Jobs have always changed/disappeared/created
• Not just because of robots
• Complement us
• Interact wisely
• Help people integrate technology

13. New industries that didn’t exist
• Green tech - photovoltaics electric vehicles
renewables
• Energy management
• Network administrator
• Website administrator
• Wearable tech
• Cyber security
• IoT
• Space exploration
• Drone warfare

14. Oilfield jobs that exist 40 years ago
• Measurement while drilling
• Logging while drilling
• Drilling optimisation
• Real-time data analysis
• Remote operations centres

15. Jobs also created by robotics

16. We are superior
• Michael Polanyi (1966)
• Polanyi paradox
• We know more than we can tell
• Many tasks which we, human beings, understand
intuitively how to perform but we cannot
verbalize the rules or procedures behind them.
And hence, cannot program them into computers
• Our perception and manipulation abilities
• Our creative or social intelligence abilities
(Aren’t we ..?)

17. THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW
SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO
COMPUTERISATION
Frey & Osborne (2013)
• Looked at what job entails – DOT/ONET
• What could be done by computers
• probability of computerisation might vary

18. Occupational Information Network O*NET
• https://www.onetonline.org/link/summary/47-5071.00
• Summary Report for:
47-5071.00 - Roustabouts, Oil and Gas
• Assemble or repair oil field equipment using hand and power tools. Perform other tasks as needed.
• Keep pipe deck and main deck areas clean and tidy.
• Unscrew or tighten pipes, casing, tubing, and pump rods, using hand and power wrenches and tongs.
• Walk flow lines to locate leaks, using electronic detectors and by making visual inspections, and repair the
leaks.
• Move pipes to and from trucks, using truck winches and motorized lifts, or by hand.
• Bolt together pump and engine parts.
• Guide cranes to move loads about decks.
• Supply equipment to rig floors as requested and provide assistance to roughnecks.
• Dismantle and repair oil field machinery, boilers, and steam engine parts, using hand tools and power
tools.
• Clean up spilled oil by bailing it into barrels.
• Dig drainage ditches around wells and storage tanks.
• Bolt or nail together wood or steel framework to erect derricks.
• Cut down and remove trees and brush to clear drill sites, to reduce fire hazards, and to make way for roads
to sites.
• Dig holes, set forms, and mix and pour concrete into forms to make foundations for wood or steel derricks.

19. Down manning
Currently at each wellsite:
• Directional Driller x 2
• MWD/LWD x 2/4
In future, using Remote Operations Centres:
• 2 technicians on each wellsite
• 2 DD, 2 MWD, 2 LWD in ROC covering 4-6 sites

20. Weaknesses
Technology seems to break down a lot
They’re not as smart as us, yet
Not mobile – difficult to be mobile with stairs
Unable to multi-task like people can

21. Can a robot do my job?
Provide in-depth drilling performance analysis extending beyond the scope of basic report interpretation, including interaction
with customer and field personnel to obtain information as needed.
Develop and maintain drilling performance metrics, tools and methodologies.
Support other functions with interpretation of product performance reports.
Actively contribute to the development of the Performance Drilling Knowledge Base through improvements to the tool as well as
data entry and analysis.
Engage with customer in well planning and drilling performance discussions to highlight opportunities and identify challenges to
success.
Provide on-site expert support to drilling operations during field trials and develop sufficient knowledge of the applicable Drilling
Performance and Total Control products with the drilling contractor and operator.
Create reports for internal and external distribution to document value of the products and recommended next steps in
technology adoption.
Ensure active communication with Business Development, Account, Operations and Technical Management, as well as other
required stakeholders throughout the life cycle of the program.
Maintaining and documenting well plans, structure files, 3D-analysis, torque & drag, hydraulics and casing programs relating to
ongoing field work and for development of future work.
Preparing well path proposals using client-supplied geological data.
Analyzing proposals in relation to offset well information in order to advise client and field staff.
Working closely with Wellbore Placement Regional Supervisors or aid in their duties to prepare appropriate materials for bid
packages and to ensure the smooth operation of ongoing jobs that meet or exceed client expectations.
Preparing multi-well structure control data for the production of spider plots, 3D-proximity reports, ellipse of uncertainty reports
and 3D interference plots.
Planning, revising, and drafting final working copies of wall plots, spider maps, log-enhanced wall plots, ellipse of uncertainty plots
and 3D interference plots.
Process End of Well Reports and Gamma logs for MWD Department if required.
Completing and filing Final Well Reports.
Sort morning reports and deliver to Coordinator for review before filing
Review and improve processes

22. How could they?
Economist David Autor claims that there are two
routes around Polanyi’s constraint:
• Change the environment eg dishwasher
• Machine learning – infer rules

23. • Directional drilling software measures and
corrects
• Currently suggests
• Future - make adjustments to rig operation
itself
Recent developments

24. These roles at risk
Most senior, experienced, trained, expensive:
Directional drillers, cementers, wireline
specialists
Supervisors, managers
In charge, but restricted to one spot
Monitoring dials, controlling electric and
hydraulic devices & processes, making high level
decisions

25. WEF Report
“Currently, robots can only perform a single function
and need supervision … A future is envisioned where
robots will be able to run multiple operations
autonomously and, to a large extent, replace field
workers.”
World Economic Forum, 2017

26. Drilling in 10 years
• Routine Pipe handling
• Routine drilling
• Artificial intelligence giving advice
• Fewer people in field, some specialist in
offices

27. What will be drilling in 20 years
• AI taking action
• Human technicians assisting robots onsite
• Remote operating centres with all specialists
and managers off rig
• AI onshore advising decisions geoscience
finance risk

28. What will be drilling in 100 years?
• AI making decisions and operating rig
• Automated logistics to rigs, auto ships
• Robots handling all equipment, every event
• Humans monitoring and maintaining, assisting
• Will require total redesign of rig to accommodate
mobility issues
• As well as human-like intelligence
• Oil may have finally run out by then
• Pandemics devastate society or isolate humans