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RESILIENCE
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
How to analyse risk and build a roadmap to resilience
What does a
resilience systems analysis do?
• Translates political will and theory into
better programming on the ground
• Based on a whole-of-system approach
(trends, not events….)
How?
• Pooling existing knowledge,
information, datasets
• Bringing together 3 x experts:
–Experts in risks
–Experts in systems
–Decision makers
The scope
• The resilience of what system, for who, to
what risks, over what timeframe?
An example:
• The resilience of the well-being of urban
communities in Egypt to geo-political,
natural, climate and economic shocks,
over the next three years
The risks…
• Geo-political (social unrest, ethnic tensions
etc…)
• Economic (price shocks, inflation, etc…)
• Natural/climate (earthquakes, water
salination, etc)
• Idiosyncratic (eg sickness, unemployment,
etc) and covariate (eg drought, Ebola)
• Over the next three years
The risk heatmap
The system
Physical
capital
Social
capital
Political
capital
Natural
capital
Human
capital
Financial
capital
Eg essential
household items
Eg formal/
informal conflict
management
mechanisms
Eg access to
those in powerEg land for
agriculture
Eg health
Eg savings
Absorb, adapt, transform…
Prioritisation the roadmap
• Time-frames: Short/medium/long term
• Power dynamics
• Different layers of society
• Eg Drought…. Where is it best to work?
– with families to absorb shocks
– with communities to adapt livelihoods
– with local authorities to adapt market access
– with states to transform economic policy
– Or a mix of these?
What does the analysis help us do?
• Prioritise planning and programming
based on risk
• Understand whole-of-system resilience
• How to work at different layers of society
… to achieve the same goal
• Who to work with, based on power
dynamics
• Buy-in from key decision makers
Next steps for us
• Somalia – 24/25 February
• Others – Bangladesh/Burundi/Somalia+ etc
• Training – USAID staff in Asia in May
• Simple economic model – to support
“layers of society” decisions
• Measurement - linking up with INFORM

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Resilience systems analysis (1)

  • 1. RESILIENCE SYSTEMS ANALYSIS How to analyse risk and build a roadmap to resilience
  • 2. What does a resilience systems analysis do? • Translates political will and theory into better programming on the ground • Based on a whole-of-system approach (trends, not events….)
  • 3. How? • Pooling existing knowledge, information, datasets • Bringing together 3 x experts: –Experts in risks –Experts in systems –Decision makers
  • 4. The scope • The resilience of what system, for who, to what risks, over what timeframe? An example: • The resilience of the well-being of urban communities in Egypt to geo-political, natural, climate and economic shocks, over the next three years
  • 5. The risks… • Geo-political (social unrest, ethnic tensions etc…) • Economic (price shocks, inflation, etc…) • Natural/climate (earthquakes, water salination, etc) • Idiosyncratic (eg sickness, unemployment, etc) and covariate (eg drought, Ebola) • Over the next three years
  • 7. The system Physical capital Social capital Political capital Natural capital Human capital Financial capital Eg essential household items Eg formal/ informal conflict management mechanisms Eg access to those in powerEg land for agriculture Eg health Eg savings
  • 9. Prioritisation the roadmap • Time-frames: Short/medium/long term • Power dynamics • Different layers of society • Eg Drought…. Where is it best to work? – with families to absorb shocks – with communities to adapt livelihoods – with local authorities to adapt market access – with states to transform economic policy – Or a mix of these?
  • 10. What does the analysis help us do? • Prioritise planning and programming based on risk • Understand whole-of-system resilience • How to work at different layers of society … to achieve the same goal • Who to work with, based on power dynamics • Buy-in from key decision makers
  • 11. Next steps for us • Somalia – 24/25 February • Others – Bangladesh/Burundi/Somalia+ etc • Training – USAID staff in Asia in May • Simple economic model – to support “layers of society” decisions • Measurement - linking up with INFORM