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Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484
Available online 29 March 2020
2211-467X/© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Renewable energy, institutional stability, environment and economic
growth nexus of D-8 countries
Mahjabeen a,*
, Syed Z.A. Shah a
, Sumayya Chughtai a
, Biagio Simonetti b,c,d
a
International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan
b
University of Sannio, Benevento, Italy
c
WSB University, Gdansk, Poland
d
National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), Naples, Italy
A R T I C L E I N F O
Keywords:
Renewable energy
Non-renewable energy
Institutional quality
Economic output
Environment quality
D-8 countries
A B S T R A C T
The anthropogenic impact of conventional energy sources encourages the utilization of renewable energy, as it
has become a strategic commodity for economic growth. On the other hand, institutional stability is the pre-
requisite without which environmental quality cannot be assured and the economy cannot function. However,
in recent literature, very little consideration has been given to this important phenomenon. This study is set to
analyze the energy-institutional stability-economic growth nexus, as well as the energy-institutional stability-
environmental quality nexus, by incorporating the Cobb Douglas production function and the Diet and Rosa
environmental function respectively. The sample consists of the D-8 countries and the time period spans 1990 to
2016. To analyze the developed models, Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL), Fully Modified Ordinary Least
Square (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) tests are applied, along with other econometric
techniques. The panel ARDL statistics indicate significant cointegration among all variables of both functions,
while the FMOLS test reveals that consumption of both nonrenewable and renewable energy has a positive
impact on economic growth, as well as on environmental degradation. Further, results indicate that institutional
stability is crucial for establishing a nation on a sound footing and protecting environmental quality. Based on
these results, the study suggests a blend of both types of energy and a gradual transition toward renewable
energy sources, with better implementation of policies and technological advances, to produce, preserve, and
transmit renewable energy production.
1. Introduction
Environmental degradation and greenhouse gas emissions are the
new challenges for the new millennium. Rapid economic growth poses a
serious threat to mankind, in the form of resource depletion, pollution,
and climate change. To deal with these challenges, the UNFCCC (United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) has established a
basic framework for global cooperation on this very issue; in addition,
the 2030 Agenda, Kyoto Protocols (1997) and Copenhagen Accords
(2009) are deterministic steps to deal with the issue of deteriorating
environmental quality. Energy consumption is the pre-requisite of eco­
nomic growth and considered the fundamental aspect of economic
growth. Around the world, the dominant source of energy is fossil fuels,
also called conventional energy sources. Almost 85% of cumulative
energy needs are fulfilled by fossil fuels, which also account for 56.6% of
the emissions of greenhouse gasses (CO2 equivalent) [1]. In the coming
era of economic and environmental compatibility, the anthropogenic
emission of greenhouse gases should be reduced to overcome and
mitigate catastrophic environmental degradation and climate change
[2]. Therefore, a transition to cleaner energy is the ultimate challenge
for economies, to ensure energy security, reduce environmental degra­
dation, and spur economic growth [3–6].
Renewable energy is considered a strategic commodity and one of
the basic indicators of economic growth and sustainable development
[7]. Renewable energy sources are mainly solar (photovoltaic), wind,
tidal, waste and biomass, which are considered eco-friendly and
cost-effective, as they reduce harmful climate change, mitigate pollu­
tion, provide energy security, and help alleviate poverty by providing
electricity to remote areas due to their decentralized nature [8–10]. A
wide range of studies have analyzed the impact of renewable and
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: Mahjabeen_88@hotmail.com (Mahjabeen).
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Energy Strategy Reviews
journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/esr
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2020.100484
Received 4 May 2019; Received in revised form 27 February 2020; Accepted 18 March 2020
Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484
2
non-renewable energy on economic output and carbon emissions; most
of these studies have shown a negative association of renewable energy
sources with carbon emissions [11–13] and a positive association with
economic output [13–15] but, still, the findings on the potential of
renewable energy to reduce environmental pollution and enhance sus­
tainable development are mixed [12]. Some studies also demonstrate no
differential effect of renewable and nonrenewable energy production
and consumption on carbon emissions [16–18]. Similarly, research
shows that renewable energy has a positive association with the envi­
ronment when it reaches a certain minimum threshold level. The
negative effects of renewable energy on environmental quality are
mostly caused by a lack of technology, storage quality, as well as poor
transmission systems [19]. Therefore, to increase sustainable develop­
ment, the negative environmental impact of renewable energy con­
sumption can be controlled by technological advances and proper
transmission systems [9,20–22].
Developing countries face multifaceted energy challenges. They are
expanding their economic activities with a parallel increase in demand
for energy that is mostly met by conventional sources. These conven­
tional energy sources (gas, coal, oil, etc.) are being depleted gradually
and their prices are very volatile. As developing countries are net im­
porters of these conventional sources, they are affected adversely by
price fluctuations. These countries are also characterized by low insti­
tutional quality and long procedural delays, as well as unpredictable
investment needs due to corruption and hierarchical interference [23].
Governmental responsiveness to the population’s concern is the main
contributing factor that can lead a nation to economic and social
development, but developing countries have low political stability and
poor democratic quality. Research indicates that economic growth is
higher in democratic states than autocratic states [14] because, in a
high-quality political regime, energy consumption has a greater impact
on economic growth [24], and the effect different macroeconomic fac­
tors have on environmental quality depends on institutional quality
[25]. But the phenomenon of institutional stability in the context of
environmental quality and economic growth is still understudied and
needs to be further explored [14,24].
Based on the above explanations, this study’s sample comprises the
D-8 or developing eight countries, to analyze how different economic
factors, specifically renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption,
institutional stability, and other macroeconomic factors, affect eco­
nomic growth and environmental quality in these countries. To analyze
the energy-institutional stability-economic growth nexus, the
Cobb–Douglas production function is applied to avoid the errors of
omitted variables and model specification [26,27]. The Cobb–Douglas
production function is widely used to express the relation of output to
input [13,28] and considered as the modern perspective of economic
growth [26]. This study incorporates economic activity as the output of
various production factors: renewable and nonrenewable energy con­
sumption, capital, labor, and institutional stability. Further, to analyze
the energy-institutional stability-environment nexus, Diet and Rosa’s
environmental function [29] is incorporated. This model particularly
measures the effect of population, affluence and environmentally
damaging technology and has been further modified and adopted by
many researchers [30]. This study has adopted the modified version of
the model [13] to analyze the impact of renewable and nonrenewable
energy consumption, affluence, population, and institutional stability on
environmental quality.
This study makes significant contributions to the literature: first,
though there is an expanding literature on the energy-economic-
environmental nexus, D-8 countries have rarely been targeted before.
Empirical findings can vary substantially among different groups of
countries, even for the same country, due to the different economic
situations and chosen time periods [7,27]. So, this study will increase
understanding of the sampled countries’ economies and environmental
conditions. Secondly, by employing the Cobb–Douglas production
function and Diet and Rosa’s environmental function, the study also
makes use of traditional factors, along with some very important input
factors, e.g. democracy index as an indicator of institutional stability.
Political and institutional quality plays a significant role in improving
environmental quality and enhancing economic growth [12,31]. We
argue that sustainable development is associated with institutional sta­
bility, but only a few studies have highlighted its impact on sustainable
development [26]. So, this study highlights the role of institutions as the
main input factor for environmental well-being and economic output.
Thirdly, this study adds to the ongoing debate on the usability of
renewable and nonrenewable energy sources, by presenting a holistic
view of the possible impact of explanatory variables on both economic
activity and the environment. Lastly, the study has employed different
econometric techniques of panel data, e.g. FMOLS, DOLS, ARDL, etc.,
and hence offers useful policy implications for the D-8 countries,
considering the economic situation and inferential results.
The next section describes the D-8 countries, followed by a literature
review, specifically on the association of renewable energy, economic
growth, and the environment. The following section contains the data
sources and methodology, followed by results, discussion, conclusion,
limitations, and policy implications.
1.1. Insight into the Developing-8 countries’ energy positions
More than two decades ago, in 1997, eight Muslim countries
(Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and
Turkey), also called the D-8 (Developing 8), made a multilateral
agreement with special emphasis on economic cooperation. The mem­
ber countries are considered the fastest growing countries and have huge
potential for economic development, thus their consumption of energy
and electricity is also growing. The per capita electricity consumption of
the D-8 countries is 1031 kWh, which is well below the other non-OIC
(Organization of Islamic Cooperation) countries, that have an average
consumption of 2202 kWh per capita [32]. Only Pakistan and Turkey
have a 30% share of renewable energy in their total energy production,
while the rest of the countries produce over 90% of their energy from
fossil fuel sources. Besides this, only Iran and Pakistan possess the ability
to produce energy from nuclear sources [32] and all other member
countries rely mainly on conventional sources of energy production. The
working committee on renewable energy1
(WCRE) has been established
for proper planning and implementation of strategies to spread aware­
ness and to take measures to increase the share of renewable energy
sources. Fig. 1 presents energy production and consumption in the D-8
countries, showing their high reliance on conventional energy sources.
These countries are best suited for analysis, as they are all facing the
above-mentioned problems of conventional energy usage, growing
economies and uneven institutional quality.
2. Literature review
Production processes and modernization depend heavily on energy
because sustainable economic growth cannot be achieved without an
uninterrupted energy supply. Renewable energy sources are considered
the best alternative to conventional sources, while a hybrid energy
system is considered to be the ultimate solution, especially for rural
electrification [28]. Considering the importance of renewable energy,
many authors have endeavored to discover its impact on economic ac­
tives which can be classified into four types of conclusion or hypothesis.
Since the pioneering study by Kraft and Kraft [33], the
energy-economic nexus has been broadly studied by researchers.
Generally, the association of energy consumption and economic growth
fall into four types of hypotheses, each of which posits implications for
policy-making [13,26,27]. The first one is the growth hypothesis that
subsumes unidirectional causality from energy towards economic
1
http://developing8.org/areas-of-cooperation/renewable-energy/.
Mahjabeen et al.
Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484
3
activities. It means the higher the energy consumption, the higher the
economic growth, hence, energy-saving measures and policies can have
contradictory effects on economic activities. The second one is the
feedback hypothesis, which is valid when there is a bidirectional rela­
tionship between energy consumption and economic growth. It means
that economic growth and energy consumption affect each other and
have a mutual association. The third hypothesis is the conservation
hypothesis that asserts unidirectional causality from economic growth
towards energy consumption. This hypothesis prevails when economic
growth has a positive impact on energy consumption, while energy
conservation measures and policies do not affect GDP. The last hy­
pothesis is the neutrality hypothesis that implies no causal association
between energy consumption and economic growth; so, the results of
previous studies comprise these findings and have found evidence of all
these hypotheses. Below we will discuss the literature, specifically on
renewable energy consumption and economic growth, and, in the next
subsection, studies on renewable energy and the environment are
reviewed.
2.1. Renewable energy consumption, economic growth and institutional
stability
One of the earliest studies on the causality of renewable energy and
economic growth was carried out by Chein and Hu [34], when they
asserted that increased renewable energy has a positive association with
economic efficiency, while increased consumption of conventional en­
ergy sources leads to decreased overall economic efficiency. In a recent
study, Paramati, Sinha and Dogan [13] analyzed the role of renewable
energy on economic activates and CO2 emissions for the developing
countries; using data from 19901 to 2012, they concluded that renew­
able energy has a positive and significant association with economic
growth, while having a negative and adverse effect on CO2 emissions,
hence they advocated employing more renewable energy in the current
grid system to pace economic growth and to save the environment from
degradation. Similarly, the same notion is adopted by Ref. [26], where
the authors studied the impact of renewable energy consumption on
GDP for Turkey for the period from 1990 to 2015. They found renewable
energy did not affect GDP and asserted that the proportion of renewable
energy was too small to have a significant impact on GDP. They further
suggested increasing the share of renewable energy to decrease the
deficit of energy trade. Contrary to these findings, another study
analyzed the same notion for the same country and found a unidirec­
tional causality between renewable energy and economic growth, while
an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) test showed the negative as­
sociation between renewable energy and economic growth [27].
Another important study on the association between renewable energy
and economic development was conducted using quarterly data from
1972 to 2011. It demonstrated that renewable energy has a feedback
effect with economic growth, while the rest of the variables have a
long-term association with each other [28]. While analyzing the energy
scenario of Pakistan, another study found that energy consumption and
economic growth have bidirectional causality; at the same time, energy
consumption leads to environmental degradation [20]. So a sufficient
proportion of energy sources should be renewable to enable smooth
economic growth without compromising the environment. Apergis and
Payne [15] analyzed the relationship between renewable energy con­
sumption and economic growth in the countries of Eurasia from 1992 to
2007. The result of the heterogeneous panel co-integration test reveals
the long-term equilibrium between real GDP, capital formation, labor,
and renewable energy consumption. The error correction model indi­
cated a bidirectional association between economic growth and
renewable energy consumption for the short and long-term periods.
Most developing countries are rich in biogases, which are an important
component of renewable energy. Developing countries can enhance the
installed capacity of biogases to optimize their potential contribution in
the energy mix [35]. In another study [7], of the Middle East and North
Africa (MENA), net oil importing countries, results show a bi-directional
causality between both kinds of energy source and economic growth, as
well as between renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption that
highlights their substitutability and interdependency. The results indi­
cate that both types of energy source are essential for economic growth.
Along with energy sources, the study also incorporated the regime type
to analyze its impact on economic development for the of Sub-Saharan
Africa for the period of 1980–2012 and found a long-term association
between variables. Specifically, both sources are found to be significant
for economic development, while nonrenewable energy is more salient
for economic growth. Importantly, it was found that autocratic countries
have less economic growth than democratic states.
The role of political stability, regime type, and democracy cannot be
ignored in the energy-economic growth nexus. Using data from 16 Sub-
Saharan countries, Adams et al. [24] analyzed the role of regime type
and energy consumption along with trade openness on economic
growth. Their results confirm that democracy moderates the relation­
ship between energy consumption and economic growth. Adams et al.
[14] analyzed the impact of renewable and non-renewable energy
regime type on economic growth for 30 Sub-Saharan countries for the
period of 1980–2012. The results of various tests indicate a long-term
association among variables and that the growth rate of democratic
countries is higher than in autocratic countries. Therefore, most of the
previous studies have been done in bits and pieces, and the role of
institutional stability in economic growth is understudied. The present
study addresses the issue and applies the production function to analyze
the energy-institutional stability-economic growth nexus.
Fig. 1. Energy production by source (top) and consumption (bottom) of the D-8 countries (source: D8 economic outlook 2016-17).
Mahjabeen et al.
Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484
4
2.2. Renewable energy consumption, environmental quality and
institutional stability
Renewable energy has a significant role in controlling environmental
degradation and energy transition [36]. The causality between energy
consumption and environmental degradation has been the subject of
intensive studies for the last two decades, with particular emphasis on
renewable energy. The literature covers a wide range of geographical
locations, a number of explanatory variables and a variety of econo­
metric tools. In the next section, we will discuss these studies.
One of the earlier studies on the association between renewable
energy and environmental degradation was conducted by Sadorsky
[37], who analyzed the causal relationship for 18 emerging countries for
the period from 1994 to 2003, conducting Granger causality and
Padroni co-integration tests. The results supported the neutrality hy­
pothesis in the short term and conservation hypothesis in the long run.
In another study by Apergis and Payne [38], determinants of renewable
energy for the 25 OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and
Development) countries for the time span of 1980–2011 were analyzed.
Results of the co-integration and error correction model tests showed the
long-term relationships between renewable energy consumption, CO2
emissions and the rest of the variables, while they also found the evi­
dence of feedback hypothesis. Similarly, the association between
renewable energy, environmental degradation and economic growth
has been analyzed for the period of 1975–2008 in 12 MENA countries
[39]. Applying the panel co-integration test, results showed evidence of
the conservation hypothesis in the long run and the growth hypothesis in
the short term. By adding trade openness to the explanatory variables of
the production function, the association between economic output,
renewable energy and CO2 emissions for the BRICS (Brazil, Russia,
India, China and South Africa) countries for the period of 1971–2010
was analyzed [40]. The results of the bound ARDL test reveal the con­
servation hypothesis for India and South Africa. The Environmental
Kuznets Curve hypothesis was examined by incorporating renewable
and nonrenewable energy consumption as explanatory variables for the
time span of 1970–2012 [41]. The result of this study confirmed bidi­
rectional causality between renewable energy consumption and CO2
emissions, as well as non-renewable energy consumption and CO2
emissions. Further, the researchers found a significant negative associ­
ation between renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions and a
positive association between non-renewable energy consumption and
environmental degradation. In another study [42], the SAARC (South
Asian Association of Regional Cooperation) countries were analyzed to
find possible associations among renewable energy consumption,
poverty, GDP and natural resource depletion. The results of the FMOLS
(Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square) approach showed a significant
association, while the causality test confirms the growth hypothesis
between variables.
According to Sarkodie and Adams [12], institutional quality plays a
significant role in maintaining environmental quality and energy regu­
lations. For their regional study of South Africa, they employed ARDL
with a structural break cumulative sum test and results reveal that the
Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis holds in South Africa and that
diversification of the energy portfolio through renewable energy is
required to reduce air pollution and vulnerability to energy price
changes. In the energy-economic-environment nexus, Bekun, Alola and
Sarkodie [43] added the natural resource rent and results of the pooled
mean group ARDL suggest a positive association between resource rent
and carbon emissions in the long run. The causality analysis depicts a
feedback mechanism between economic growth, renewable and
nonrenewable energy. Dong, Sun and Hochman [44] advocate the
consumption of natural gas and renewable energy for environmental
sustainability and their analysis confirms the Environmental Kuznets
Curve hypothesis for the BRICS countries. Further, the causality analysis
explains the feedback mechanism among natural gas, renewable energy
consumption, and economic growth. By employing the latest method­
ology and allowing for cross-section dependence and slope heteroge­
neity, key impact factors for carbon emission are analyzed by Ref. [45]
by including a large sample of 128 countries; overall results indicate a
negative association of renewable energy and carbon emission. Con­
trolling for the effect of the ecological footprint, Saint Akadiri, Bekun
and Sarkodie [46] analyzed the impact of energy consumption and GDP
per capita on environmental quality in South Africa. Results indicate
that pollution and environmental degradation is not output-driven but
depends on energy consumption and production. Using an unbalanced
panel of 128 countries, Dong et al. [11] analyzed the impact of renew­
able energy, population and economic growth on CO2 emissions.
Considering the slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, the
authors employed the common correlated effect mean group, whose
results indicate that population and economic growth have a significant
positive influence on carbon emissions, both at a global and regional
level. Similarly, a study by Sarkodie and Strezov [47] shows that the
Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis holds in Australia. Proposing a
transition from energy-intensive industries to less carbon-intensive in­
dustries, the results of DOLS (Dynamic Ordinary Least Square) and
FMOLS indicate that disaggregated energy sources, along with energy
imports and exports, have a positive influence on the ecological foot­
print and carbon emissions in Australia.
Contrary to the above findings, some studies, however, show that
there is no differential effect of renewable and nonrenewable energy on
carbon emission and pollution. The study by Farhani and Shahbaz [16]
analyzed the impact of renewable and nonrenewable energy consump­
tion on CO2 emissions for MENA countries. The results of DOLS and
FMOLS show that both kinds of energy contribute to CO2 emissions.
Similarly, the study by Bilgili, Koçak and Bulut [18] researches the same
concept by analyzing the 17 OECD countries for the period from 1997 to
2010. Another study [17] analyzed data from 16 European countries for
the period 1990–2008. The results of ordinary least square (OLS) and
fixed effect reveal that both kinds of energy contribute to greenhouse gas
emissions; however, renewable energy contributes less than nonre­
newable energy. Further, the authors state that renewable energy has a
positive association with the environment when it reaches a certain
minimum threshold. The reason for the contribution to environmental
degradation is the lack of production and storage quality and technology
Table 1
Data sources and description.
Code Variable name source
CO2E Carbon Dioxide Emission ¼ Metric Tons Per Capita WDI, EDGAR
Y (GDP) Gross Domestic Product Per Capita WDI
IS Institutional stability ¼ average for political rights and civil liberty (1–7) Freedom House
NREC Non-renewable energy consumption ¼ kilo ton of oil equivalent WDI
REC Renewable energy consumption ¼ % share of renewable energy in total energy consumption WDI
K Capital formation ¼ gross fixed capital formation % of GDP WDI
L Labor ¼ total employment from the age of 15þ WDI
PI Per capita income WDI
POPG Population growth annually WDI
Note: WDI¼ World Development Indicator, EDGAR ¼ Emission Database on Global Atmosphere.
Mahjabeen et al.
Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484
5
as well as poor transmission systems [19]. So the negative effect of
renewable energy can be controlled by proper management and trans­
mission technology in the grid system.
The role of institutions and economic freedom is taking a stance in
resource management literature. Al-Mulali and Ozturk [48] analyzed
the influence of political stability on environmental quality, along with
energy consumption, trade openness, urbanization and the ecological
footprint for 14 MENA countries. By employing FMOLS, the authors
found that political stability plays an important role in controlling
environmental quality. Similarly, another study [3] added economic
freedom to the energy-growth-environment nexus for 85 developed and
developing countries. The results of FMOLS indicate that the role of
institutions, as well as renewable energy, have a significant positive
impact on economic growth and environmental quality. According to
Adams and Klobodu [31], democracy and bureaucratic quality are the
main determinants of environmental quality.
In a nutshell, the findings on the potential contribution of renewable
energy to environmental quality are not clear. Furthermore, there is
scant literature on the possible impact of institutional stability and
quality in environmental maintenance. The present study fills this gap
by employing the Diet and Rosa environmental function to analyze the
energy-institutional stability-environment nexus.
3. Methods and material
The main objectives of the present study are to analyze both the
renewable energy-institutional stability-economic growth nexus and the
renewable energy-institutional stability-environmental quality nexus of
the D-8 countries. The panel dataset is constructed using the time span
from 1990 to 2016 (27 observations per cross-section). To analyze the
economic growth nexus, this study has employed the modified
Cobb–Douglas production function, where the impact of the different
input variables is analyzed on the economic activity of the D-8 countries.
Following previous studies, this one has used nonrenewable energy
consumption in the model as a comparison with renewable energy
consumption. Furthermore, we cannot exclude conventional energy
sources from the model to avoid the bias and error of omitted variables,
as previous studies have shown a significant association of fossil fuel
energy with economic output and environmental quality.
The first model of the study pertains to capital, labor, technology as a
traditional factor of production, along with renewable and nonrenew­
able energy consumption and democracy index (institutional stability).
The initial production function is
Y ¼ ​ fðKLTÞ
The modified production function for the study is
Y ¼ fðK L IS REC NRECÞ
After adding parameters, the equation form is
Y ¼ α þ β1ðKitÞ þ B2ðLitÞ þ β3ðNRECitÞ þ β4ðRECitÞ þ B5ðISitÞ þ ε (1)
Table 1 contains details of the variables along with measurement
units and data sources. The data is measured in different units, which
can cause problems associated with the distributional properties of the
data series [13], so, following the previous literature, all the variables
are transformed into a natural logarithm. The log-linear production
function is
ln Y ¼ α þ β1ðlnKitÞ þ B2ðlnLitÞ þ β3ðlnNRECitÞ þ β4ðRlnRECitÞ þ B5ðInISitÞ
þ ε
(2)
To analyze the renewable-institutional stability-environmental
quality nexus, Diet and Rosa’s environmental function is adopted. The
model, originally developed by Rosa [29], has been subject to devel­
opment and changes, and many authors have added different parame­
ters according to their study objectives, along with the basic parameters
e.g. population, per capita income, and affluence technology. In this
study, the model modified by Paramati, Sinha and Dogan [13] is
adopted and a measure of institutional stability is added to the equation.
CO2E ¼ fðPOPG PI IS REC NRECÞ
After adding the parameters, the equation form is
CO2E ¼ α þ β1ðPIitÞ þ β2ðPOPGitÞ þ β3ðNRECitÞ þ β4ðRECitÞ þ β5ðISitÞ þ ε
(3)
To overcome the distribution properties of data series, all variables
are transformed into a natural logarithm. The log-linear equation for the
study is
lnCO2E ¼ α þ β1ðlnPIitÞ þ β2ðlnPOPGitÞ þ β3ðlnNRECitÞ
þ β4ðlnRECitÞ þ β5ðlnISitÞ þ ε
(4)
The study has employed ARDL estimation for co-integration as it has
many advantages over other co-integration techniques. ARDL estima­
tion gives rigorous results for a small sample and allows multiple pre­
dictors to have different lag orders [12]. Based on ARDL estimation, the
empirical specification of equations (3) and (4) is:
where lnCO2E, ln, lnPI, lnPOPG, lnK, lnL, lnNREC, lnREC, lnIS indicate
natural log forms of carbon dioxide emission, economic growth, per
capita income, population growth, capital formation, labor employed,
nonrenewable energy consumption, renewable energy consumption,
and institutional stability measured as the average of civil liberty and
ΔlnYt ¼ α0 þ δ1Yt À 1 þ δ2 ln KtÀ 1 þ δ3 ln LtÀ 1 þ δ4 ln NRECtÀ 1 þ δ5 ln RECtÀ 1 þ δ6 ln IStÀ 1þ
Xp
i¼1
β1jΔY À i þ
Xp
i¼0
β2jΔlnKt À i þ
Xp
i¼0
β3jΔlnLt À i þ
Xp
i¼0
β4jΔlnNRECt À i þ
Xp
i¼0
β5jΔlnRECt À i þ
Xp
i¼0
β6jΔlnISt À i þ εt
(5)
ΔlnCO2t ¼ α0 þ δ1CO2t À 1 þ δ2 ln PItÀ 1 þ δ3 ln POPGtÀ 1 þ δ4 ln NRECtÀ 1 þ δ5 ln RECtÀ 1 þ δ6 ln ISt À 1þ
Xp
i¼1
β1jΔCO2t À i þ
Xp
i¼0
β2jΔlnPIt À 1 þ
Xp
i¼0
β3jΔlnPOPGt À 1 þ
Xp
i¼0
β4jΔlnNRECt À 1 þ
Xp
i¼0
β5jΔlnRECt À 1 þ
Xp
i¼0
β6jΔlnISt À 1 þ εt
(6)
Mahjabeen et al.
Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484
6
political rights [26] respectively. α denotes the intercept, Δ is the first
difference operator, p is the lag order, β and δ denote the slope coeffi­
cient, ε is a stochastic term.
4. Results and discussion
The empirical testing of the study begins with descriptive statistics
and the correlation matrix. Table 2 presents the correlation matrix and
the descriptive statistics of all the variables. The descriptive statistics
indicate that there are no outliers in the data and the data is stable. The
correlation matrix indicates that some independent variables have a
high correlation but, in the panel data analysis, the number of obser­
vations is greater than the time series analysis, which reduces the
concern of multicollinearity [49]. There is a strong and positive corre­
lation (0.859081) between GDP and renewable energy consumption; on
the other hand, the correlation between nonrenewable energy con­
sumption and GDP is À 0.35996. For carbon emissions, renewable en­
ergy has a negative (À 0.43778) correlation with environmental
degradation, indicating the opposite direction of variables, whereas
nonrenewable energy has a positive correlation (0.634464).
The examination of the order of the variables is the most important
step before applying any other econometric tools because it determines
the selection of models for empirical analysis. To estimate the distri­
butional properties of the variables, four different panel unit root tests
are examined, where the Lavin-Lin-Chu (LLC) test is used to examine the
common unit test while the individual unit-roots are analyzed by the
Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF), Im-Pesaran-Shin (IPS) and Philips-
Perron(PP) tets. The analysis of the integration and application of
these tests is very important, e.g. if results confirm the stationary at I (1),
they indicate that all the variables are stationary at first difference or
first-order differentials and not stationary at a level so the variables
might cointegrate as a group in the long run. Table 3 presents the results
of the unit root test that indicates some of the variables are stationary at
the level and others are stationary at first difference. Institutional sta­
bility and nonrenewable energy are stationary at a level while the rest of
the variables are stationary at first difference. A decision was made
regarding the significance of majority results, i.e., if three out of four
tests indicate stationarity at the level, then the variable would be
considered as stationary at level. The same is the case for the first dif­
ference. It is important to note that none of the variables are stationary
at second difference 1(2), which leads to the estimation of the ARDL
cointegration bound testing.
The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach of cointegration
developed by Ref. [50] is employed in this study, as this econometric
tool is widely used [13,27,28] and has many advantages over other
cointegration tools, e.g. Johansen and Juselius. Other cointegration
tools use more than one equation in establishing long-term parameters
while ARDL uses one equation. This approach can also be used whether
the variables are stationary at the level or at first-order [26]. It also
avoids the endogeneity problem and serial correlation and, finally, it is
most suitable for small samples. The ARDL test was followed by a Wald
test to determine the robustness of the estimates through the F-statistics.
The null hypothesis for the Wald test assumes no cointegration among
the parameters (β1 ¼ β2 ¼ β3 ¼ β4 ¼ β5 ¼ 0) while the alternative
hypothesis assumes cointegration among variables (β1 6¼ β2 6¼ β3 6¼ β4 6¼
β5 6¼ 0). The short-term results of the ARDL tests are presented in Table 4
for both models. The Akaike info criterion (AIC) is selected with a
“constant trend” option, while the optimal lag length for economic
output function is one and, for the environment function, the lag length
is 2. The results for the environmental function indicate that all the
variables have a significant association with their dependent variables;
population growth contributes negatively to environmental degradation
so that a 1% increase in population results in a 1.445% decrease in
environmental quality. Particularly, renewable energy has a negative
Table 2
Descriptive statistics and correlation matrix of D-8 countries.
MEAN SD LNIS LNREC LNNREC LNPOP LNPI LNK LNL LNGDP LNCO2E
LNIS 1.49228 0.25722 1
LNREC 8.85905 1.50054 À 0.44668 1
LNNREC 4.15913 0.57359 0.08275 À 0.68494 1
LNPOPG 0.63319 0.34364 0.13043 0.22070 À 0.69633 1
LNPI 7.63854 1.04561 À 0.05602 0.18233 À 0.04892 0.05938 1
LNK 3.03774 0.38800 À 0.10176 À 0.32104 0.73951 À 0.68791 0.00282 1
LNL 3.79550 0.34795 À 0.26260 À 0.31193 0.71621 À 0.61083 À 0.33963 0.66085 1
LNGDP 25.67461 1.51152 À 0.10897 À 0.35996 0.85908 À 0.83766 0.02098 0.72596 0.74674 1
LNCO2E 0.45466 1.10431 0.22101 À 0.43778 0.63446 À 0.40407 0.60558 0.49079 0.22797 0.61612 1
Table 3
Testing the stationarity of the variables.
Variables LLC IPS ADF PP Decision
1(0) 1(1) 1(0) 1(1) 1(0) 1(1) 1(0) 1(1)
LNCO2E À 2.1798
(0.0146)
À 6.5124
0.0000
0.26136
(0.6031)
6.77555
0.0000
11.6462
À 0.7680
75.0730
0.0000
13.0309
À 0.6705
151.610
0.0000
1(1)
LNGDP 2.42662 (0.9924 À 2.33925
(0.0097)
5.72021
(1.0000)
4.79507
(0.0000)
2.41804
(1.0000)
54.2891
(0.0000)
6.02684
(0.9878)
102.699
(0.0000)
1(1)
LNIS À 1.0159
(0.1548)
À 5.44871
(0.0000)
À 2.14484
(0.0160)
7.07762
(0.0000)
29.3938
À 0.0214
78.7041
(0.0000)
30.3527
(0.0163)
119.682
(0.0000)
1(0)
LNNREC À 4.0739
0.0000
À 6.2060
(0.0000)
À 1.9925
À 0.0232
À 6.1070
(0.0000)
29.9875
À 0.0181
66.7509
(0.0000)
45.8559
(0.0001)
45.8559
(0.0001)
1(0)
LNREC À 0.8871
À 0.1875
À 5.4370
0.0000
1.8666
À 0.9690
À 5.5890
0.0000
7.4383
(0.9639)
61.0456
(0.0000)
7.1538
(0.9702)
109.5280
(0.0000)
1(1)
LNK À 1.72404
(0.0424)
À 6.6695
(0.0000)
À 0.5293
(0.2983)
À 6.4174
(0.0000)
14.1433
À 0.5880
70.5948
(0.0000)
16.1385
(0.4433)
91.9635
(0.0000)
1(1)
LNL 3.9568
À 1.0000
9.1130
À 1.0000
0.62870
(0.7352)
À 3.7782
À 0.0001
11.5108
(0.7769)
44.7561
À 0.0002
24.4403
À 0.0803
85.2033
0.0000
1(1)
LNPI 0.61523
(À 0.7308)
À 4.4405
(0.0000)
2.76075
(À 0.9971)
À 5.1930
(0.0000)
4.66816
(0.9972)
56.9754
(0.0000)
3.1595
(0.9998)
90.0874
(0.0000)
1(1)
LNPOPG 0.32566
(0.6277)
À 3.0715
À 0.0011
0.60691
À 0.7280
À 5.2828
(0.0000)
14.2645
À 0.5790
63.7080
0.0000
39.9819
(0.0008)
22.1500
(0.1384)
1(1)
Mahjabeen et al.
Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484
7
association with CO2 emissions, which has important implications for
policymakers. Interestingly, nonrenewable energy consumption has an
inverse relationship with CO2 emissions; on the other hand, per capita
income and democracy index have positive associations. All parameters
have a positive association with economic output, which implies the
positive contribution of disaggregated energy sources and other pro­
duction factors. The institutional stability measure, however, shows a
significant but negative correlation with economic activity. Previously,
Bulut and Muratoglu [26] found this variable had a negative but insig­
nificant impact on Turkish economic activity. We can interpret this
finding as a lower institutional stability index showing high stability, so
high stability has a positive relationship with economic activity. The
Wald test statistics showed a significant probability (0.000) F-statistics
(134.6705, 384.6973) that showed the robustness of the model and the
long-term associations among variables. These estimates led the authors
to test long-term elasticities.
After determining the co-integration among variables, the long-run
elasticities or parameters can be determined through ordinary least
square (OLS), dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) and fully modified
ordinary least square (FMOLS) tests developed by Pedroni [51]. The
estimated cointegrated vector through OLS is super convergent with the
asymptotically biased distribution. These problems are similar for time
series as well as for panel data and more salient even in the presence of
heterogeneity [39]. Using the semiparametric corrections, FMOLS ac­
counts for serial correlation and endogeneity in errors; on the other
hand, DOLS uses the generalized least square procedure to correct the
serial correlation in errors and leads and lags to correct the endogeneity
in regressors [14]. So, the study has employed both estimators for
robustness checks to estimate the long-term elasticities of variables, as
both techniques correct the endogeneity and serial correlation problems.
Table 5 presents the results of DOLS and FMOLS estimates. Results of
FMOLS indicate that the institutional stability index has a negative and
significant association with economic output; we can interpret this as a
low institutional stability index indicating high stability (1 ¼ most
stable, 7 ¼ least), that is why increased political stability will create
increased economic output. So institutional stability plays a vital role in
establishing the economy on a healthy footing. On the other hand, the
DOLS results show a negative but insignificant association of institu­
tional stability with economic output as found by Bulut and Muratoglu
[26] in their DOLS estimation of democracy in a regional study of
Turkey. Both capital and labor are significant contributors to economic
output in both methods. The important parameters of economic output,
renewable and non-renewable energy consumption contribute posi­
tively to economic development. So, both types of energy are essential
for economic growth. This finding has a significant policy implication as
it appeals to a blend of both types of energy and recommendations of a
gradual transition to an eco-friendly energy system.
Coming to the environment function, the FMOLS results indicate that
the institutional stability index has a significant association with the
environment, while it is insignificant in the DOLS estimation. Focusing
on FMOLS estimation, we can infer that institutional stability and
environmental degradation have a negative and significant association,
as institutional stability will decrease environmental degradation by
0.31%. Population growth does not show a significant association while
per capita income has a significant and positive impact on carbon
emissions, which implies an increase in income spurs CO2 emissions. We
can presume therefore that the people of this region are not environ­
mentally conscious yet, as they pollute their environment more as their
level of income increases, so the government needs to establish a proper
awareness campaign to educate the public about the importance of a
clean environment.
Both renewable and non-renewable energy consumption have sig­
nificant links with CO2 emissions as predicted in FMOLS, but the results
reveal that the beta coefficient of renewable energy consumption is
much less than that of nonrenewable energy consumption, which im­
plies that renewable energy consumption has a less damaging impact on
the environment than nonrenewable energy consumption. We can
further argue that renewable energy consumption needs technological
involvement and proper planning of capital resources, but these coun­
tries are lacking in these fields, which is why renewable energy con­
sumption is adding to the environmental pollution to some extent.
Focusing on institutional quality, we can further argue that governments
need to focus on technical aspects, clean production and consumption of
energy, as most of the sources of renewable energy production are
biogases and animal dungs that also have implications for the environ­
ment. So curtailing conventional sources and increasing clean produc­
tion of renewable energy with greater emphasis on photovoltaic energy
are recommended to grasp this opportunity.
The study proposed causality between independent variables and
dependent variables for both of the equations. To analyze whether the
causality is bidirectional, one way or if there is no causal association, the
Granger causality approach is employed. The results presented in
Table 6 indicate that there is no bidirectional causality between vari­
ables. As far as unidirectional causality is concerned, institutional sta­
bility Granger causes carbon emissions and renewable energy
Table 4
Short term estimate of ARDL test.
CO2E ¼ fðPOPG PI DI REC NRECÞ Y ¼ fðK L DI REC NRECÞ
Variables Coefficient T-Stat Sig Variables Coefficient T-Stat Sig
LNPOPG À 1.445118 À 5.21328 0.0000 LNIS À 0.232521 À 3.257713 0.0014
LNIS 0.253302 2.61238 0.0103 LNK 0.280819 3.174422 0.0018
LNNREC À 2.761693 À 3.48599 0.0007 LNL 0.686186 2.639437 0.0092
LNPI 0.645139 8.58696 0.0000 LNNREC 7.092142 13.64693 0.0000
LNREC À 0.590357 À 2.26751 0.0254 LNREC 1.207882 11.85181 0.0000
AIC ¼ À 2.717660, Schwarz criterion ¼ À 1.01439 AIC ¼ À 4.38704, Schwarz criterion ¼ À 3.433836
Wald test statistics Wald test statistics
F-statistic ¼ 134.6705, p value ¼ 0.0000 F-statistic ¼ 384.6973, p value ¼ 0.0000
Chi-square ¼ 673.3525, p value ¼ 0.0000 Chi-square ¼ 1923.487, p value ¼ 0.0000
Table 5
DOLS and FMOLS estimates of long-term elasticities.
Y ¼ fðK L IS REC NRECÞ CO2E ¼ fðPOPG PI IS REC NRECÞ
Variables Coefficient Prob Variables Coefficient Prob
FMOLS estimates
LNIS À 0.13431 0.0352 LNIS À 0.31502 0.002
LNK 0.140893 0.0014 LNPOPG À 0.12485 0.6634
LNL À 0.5658 0.0504 LNPI 0.133255 0.0129
LNNREC 10.06462 0.0000 LNREC 0.575134 0.0011
LNREC 1.149324 0.0000 LNNREC 5.58897 0.0000
DOLS estimates
LNIS À 0.4177 0.0783 LNIS À 0.12213 0.6033
LNK 0.372146 0.0067 LNPOPG À 0.54772 0.1488
LNL À 1.94931 0.0012 LNPI 0.309957 0.0065
LNNREC 13.19915 0.0000 LNREC 0.194662 0.2329
LNREC 1.24247 0.0000 LNNREC À 2.03874 0.0352
Mahjabeen et al.
Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484
8
consumption Granger causes institutional stability. For the second
model, GDP and institutional stability Granger causes capital formation,
labor force Granger causes GDP, while renewable energy Granger causes
the capital formation and capital formation Granger causes nonrenew­
able energy. The study neither found any causality between energy
consumption and economic growth nor with carbon emissions, hence
the results support the neutrality hypothesis. The findings of the
neutrality hypothesis are in line with previous findings where the au­
thors have found no causal link [26], despite finding short and long-term
associations among variables.
5. Conclusion
Energy has become a strategic commodity without which the func­
tioning of the economy is threatened, especially in developing countries.
Developing countries are facing the two-sided sword of energy chal­
lenges: On one hand, they have to overcome energy shortages and meet
energy demand, while, on the other hand, environmental degradation
poses a serious threat to sustainable development. That is why efforts are
being made to spread the awareness of the utility and environmental
compatibility of renewable energy. This study seeks to analyze the
impact of renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption and insti­
tutional stability, along with other factors, on the environment and
economic output or activity. The analysis is divided into two models; the
first model pertains to the energy-institutional stability-economic
growth nexus that incorporates the modified Cobb–Douglas production
function. The second model pertains to the energy-institutional stability-
environment quality nexus that incorporates the Diet and Rosa envi­
ronmental function. D-8 countries were selected for analysis, as they
mostly depend on conventional energy sources and suffer from low
institutional quality. The data time period spans from 1990 to 2016 and
panel data methodology is adopted for analysis. The authors applied
different econometric techniques for the statistical analysis. The unit
root test indicates that some of the variables are stationary at a level and
some variables are stationary at first difference; that is why the ARDL
bounds testing approach was incorporated to analyze the cointegration
among variables. The results of both the equations indicate significant
cointegration for the constituents of both functions. Further, the long-
term elasticities are measured through FMOLS and DOLS estimation,
where results indicate that both renewable and non-renewable energy
has a strong association with economic development, as well as
contributing to carbon emissions. However, the negative effect of
renewable energy is much less than of nonrenewable energy. The vari­
able of institutional stability positively impacts economic growth and
environmental quality. The Granger causality results of the study sup­
port the neutrality hypothesis, as no causality is found in economic
output and energy consumption.
Although the study has incorporated different indicators and mea­
sures, it is not beyond certain limitations. First, the study has employed
important input factors for both of the functions but authors suggest
incorporating some other resources as an input factor for environmental
quality and economic growth, e.g. water resources, natural resource
depletion. Second, the financial and economic integrations of economies
and the mutual interplay of resources leads to common shocks and
dependence of economies on each other that is termed “cross-sectional
dependence”. The study has employed first-generation techniques of
panel data analysis; ARDL, FMOLS and DOLS do not allow the consid­
eration of cross-sectional dependence, the authors suggest incorporating
the second-generation techniques of panel data analysis that addresses
the cross-sectional dependence issue more accurately, e.g. dynamic
common correlated method, common correlated effect mean group
estimators.
5.1. Policy implications
Institutional stability is the basic parameter without which sustain­
able development cannot be imagined. The governments of these
countries need to focus on cleaner energy production and the specific
agenda of environmental protection to achieve sustainable development
goals. Other suitable policy suggestions are:
Table 6
Granger causality test.
Variables Links F-statistics (p-value) Decision Variables Links F-statistics (p-value) Decision
LNIS toward LNCO2E 8.90070 (0.0002) LNIS →LN CO2E LNIS towards LNGDP 2.48580 (0.0859) No causality
LNCCO2E toward LNIS 1.23828 (0.2922) LNGDP towards LNIS 0.13878 (0.8705)
LNPOPG towards LN CO2E 1.72636 (0.1806) No causality LNK towards LNGDP 0.31723 (0.7285) LNGDP→LNK
LNCO2E towards LNPOPG 0.15360 (0.8577) LNGDP towards LNK 4.03479 (0.00192)
LNPI towards LN CO2E 2.21398 (0.1120) No causality LNL towards LNGDP 5.03387(0.0074) LNL →LNGDP
LNCO2E towards LNPI 1.79590 (0.1687) LNGDP towards LNL 0.12130 (0.8858)
LNREC towards LN CO2E 0.96264 (0.3837) No causality LNNREC towards LNGDP 0.66090 (0.5175) No causality
LNCO2E towards LNREC 0.21365(0.8078) LNGDP towards LNNREC 0.01937 (0.9808)
LNNREC towards LN CO2E 2.88959 (0.0580) No causality LNREC towards LNGDP 1.59010 (0.2065) No causality
LNCO2E towards LNNREC 2.16708 (0.1173) LNGDP towards LNREC 0.21113 (0.8099)
LNPOPG towards LNIS 0.83291 (0.4363) No causality LNK towards LNIS 0.45486 (0.6352) LNIS →LNK
LNIS towards LNPOPG 0.58182 (0.5598) LNIS towards LNK 3.46012 (0.0334)
LNPI towards LNIS 1.74885(0.1767) No causality LNL towards LNIS 0.32191 (0.7252) No causality
LNIS towards LNPI 1.40277(0.2484) LNIS towards LNL 0.33057 (0.7189)
LNREC towards LNIS 4.09167 (0.0182) LNREC → LNIS LNNREC towards LNIS 0.31186 (0.7324) No causality
LNIS towards LNREC 0.00250 (0.9975) LNIS towards LNNREC 0.02067 (0.9795)
LNNREC towards LNIS 0.31186 (0.7324) No causality LNREC towards LNIS 4.09167 (0.0182) LNREC→LNIS
LNIS towards LNNREC 0.02067 (0.9795) LNIS towards LNREC 0.00250 (0.9975)
LNPI towards LNPOPG 0.36700 (0.6933) No causality LNL towards LNK 1.68114 (0.1888) No causality
LNPOPG towards LNPI 1.91489 (0.1501) LNK towards LNL 0.98418 (0.3756)
LNREC towards LNPOPG 0.06775 (0.9345) No causality LNNREC towards LNK 1.99022 (0.2394) LNK→LNNREC
LNPOPG towards LNREC 1.10422 (0.3335) LNK towards LNNREC 8.11877 (0.0004)
LNNREC towards LNPOPG 2.13534 (0.1210) No causality LNREC towards LNK 0.08201 (0.9213) No causality
LNPOPG towards LNNREC 0.21192 (0.8092) LNK towards LNREC 0.09283 (0.9114)
LNREC towards LNPI 0.36036(0.6970) No causality LNNREC towards LNL 0.22837 (0.796) No causality
LNPI towards LNREC 0.51532 (0.5981) LNL towards LNNREC 0.65823 (0.5189)
LNNREC towards LNPI 0.10324 (0.9020) No causality LNREC towards LNL 0.27677 (0.7585) No causality
LNPI towards LNNREC 0.43092 (0.6505 LNL towards LNREC 0.34808 (0.7065)
LNNREC towards LNREC 0.03960 (0.9612) No causality LNREC towards LNNREC 0.06929 (0.9331) No causality
LNREC towards LNNREC 0.06929 (0.9331) LNNREC towards LNREC 0.03960 (0.9612)
Mahjabeen et al.
Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484
9
➢ These countries are naturally blessed with different renewable en­
ergy sources due to their geographical location. But the statistics
show that hydropower is the major source of renewable energy in
these countries. So, the governments should not remain limited to
this source and must invest in other sources to capitalize on other
opportunities. Further, the governments should subsidize renewable
energy consumption and should also maintain some other incentives,
especially for rural electrification through renewable energy sources.
➢ Two of the D-8 member countries, Pakistan and Iran, have the ability
to produce energy through nuclear technology. Therefore, these
countries can enhance the production of renewable energy through
nuclear technology for local use as well as for trade purposes. D-8
countries have various contracts along with efficient energy provi­
sion, so these countries can come up with effective nuclear as well as
other energy trade agreements.
➢ Imposing a carbon tax on the excessive use of conventional energy
sources and using that fund for proper procurement of renewable
energy will eventually enable renewable energy to compete with
conventional sources. So the governments are recommended to
ensure the proper implementation of policies to abate the environ­
mental consequences of conventional energy sources.
➢ Last but not least, a public awareness campaign, to spread the
knowledge about the usability of renewable energy and anthropo­
genic implications of conventional energy, should be scheduled
through proper training and programs. The governments of these
countries are encouraged to arrange such a media campaign to urge
and educate the public to participate in making the world a better
place to live in for themselves and future generations.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Mahjabeen: Conceptualization, Writing - original draft, Data cura­
tion. Syed Z.A. Shah: Conceptualization, Supervision, Validation.
Sumayya Chughtai: Methodology, Software, Writing - review & edit­
ing. Biagio Simonetti: Formal analysis.
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Renewable energy, institutional stability, environment and economic growth nexus of D-8 countries

  • 1. Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484 Available online 29 March 2020 2211-467X/© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Renewable energy, institutional stability, environment and economic growth nexus of D-8 countries Mahjabeen a,* , Syed Z.A. Shah a , Sumayya Chughtai a , Biagio Simonetti b,c,d a International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan b University of Sannio, Benevento, Italy c WSB University, Gdansk, Poland d National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), Naples, Italy A R T I C L E I N F O Keywords: Renewable energy Non-renewable energy Institutional quality Economic output Environment quality D-8 countries A B S T R A C T The anthropogenic impact of conventional energy sources encourages the utilization of renewable energy, as it has become a strategic commodity for economic growth. On the other hand, institutional stability is the pre- requisite without which environmental quality cannot be assured and the economy cannot function. However, in recent literature, very little consideration has been given to this important phenomenon. This study is set to analyze the energy-institutional stability-economic growth nexus, as well as the energy-institutional stability- environmental quality nexus, by incorporating the Cobb Douglas production function and the Diet and Rosa environmental function respectively. The sample consists of the D-8 countries and the time period spans 1990 to 2016. To analyze the developed models, Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) tests are applied, along with other econometric techniques. The panel ARDL statistics indicate significant cointegration among all variables of both functions, while the FMOLS test reveals that consumption of both nonrenewable and renewable energy has a positive impact on economic growth, as well as on environmental degradation. Further, results indicate that institutional stability is crucial for establishing a nation on a sound footing and protecting environmental quality. Based on these results, the study suggests a blend of both types of energy and a gradual transition toward renewable energy sources, with better implementation of policies and technological advances, to produce, preserve, and transmit renewable energy production. 1. Introduction Environmental degradation and greenhouse gas emissions are the new challenges for the new millennium. Rapid economic growth poses a serious threat to mankind, in the form of resource depletion, pollution, and climate change. To deal with these challenges, the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) has established a basic framework for global cooperation on this very issue; in addition, the 2030 Agenda, Kyoto Protocols (1997) and Copenhagen Accords (2009) are deterministic steps to deal with the issue of deteriorating environmental quality. Energy consumption is the pre-requisite of eco­ nomic growth and considered the fundamental aspect of economic growth. Around the world, the dominant source of energy is fossil fuels, also called conventional energy sources. Almost 85% of cumulative energy needs are fulfilled by fossil fuels, which also account for 56.6% of the emissions of greenhouse gasses (CO2 equivalent) [1]. In the coming era of economic and environmental compatibility, the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases should be reduced to overcome and mitigate catastrophic environmental degradation and climate change [2]. Therefore, a transition to cleaner energy is the ultimate challenge for economies, to ensure energy security, reduce environmental degra­ dation, and spur economic growth [3–6]. Renewable energy is considered a strategic commodity and one of the basic indicators of economic growth and sustainable development [7]. Renewable energy sources are mainly solar (photovoltaic), wind, tidal, waste and biomass, which are considered eco-friendly and cost-effective, as they reduce harmful climate change, mitigate pollu­ tion, provide energy security, and help alleviate poverty by providing electricity to remote areas due to their decentralized nature [8–10]. A wide range of studies have analyzed the impact of renewable and * Corresponding author. E-mail address: Mahjabeen_88@hotmail.com (Mahjabeen). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Energy Strategy Reviews journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/esr https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2020.100484 Received 4 May 2019; Received in revised form 27 February 2020; Accepted 18 March 2020
  • 2. Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484 2 non-renewable energy on economic output and carbon emissions; most of these studies have shown a negative association of renewable energy sources with carbon emissions [11–13] and a positive association with economic output [13–15] but, still, the findings on the potential of renewable energy to reduce environmental pollution and enhance sus­ tainable development are mixed [12]. Some studies also demonstrate no differential effect of renewable and nonrenewable energy production and consumption on carbon emissions [16–18]. Similarly, research shows that renewable energy has a positive association with the envi­ ronment when it reaches a certain minimum threshold level. The negative effects of renewable energy on environmental quality are mostly caused by a lack of technology, storage quality, as well as poor transmission systems [19]. Therefore, to increase sustainable develop­ ment, the negative environmental impact of renewable energy con­ sumption can be controlled by technological advances and proper transmission systems [9,20–22]. Developing countries face multifaceted energy challenges. They are expanding their economic activities with a parallel increase in demand for energy that is mostly met by conventional sources. These conven­ tional energy sources (gas, coal, oil, etc.) are being depleted gradually and their prices are very volatile. As developing countries are net im­ porters of these conventional sources, they are affected adversely by price fluctuations. These countries are also characterized by low insti­ tutional quality and long procedural delays, as well as unpredictable investment needs due to corruption and hierarchical interference [23]. Governmental responsiveness to the population’s concern is the main contributing factor that can lead a nation to economic and social development, but developing countries have low political stability and poor democratic quality. Research indicates that economic growth is higher in democratic states than autocratic states [14] because, in a high-quality political regime, energy consumption has a greater impact on economic growth [24], and the effect different macroeconomic fac­ tors have on environmental quality depends on institutional quality [25]. But the phenomenon of institutional stability in the context of environmental quality and economic growth is still understudied and needs to be further explored [14,24]. Based on the above explanations, this study’s sample comprises the D-8 or developing eight countries, to analyze how different economic factors, specifically renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption, institutional stability, and other macroeconomic factors, affect eco­ nomic growth and environmental quality in these countries. To analyze the energy-institutional stability-economic growth nexus, the Cobb–Douglas production function is applied to avoid the errors of omitted variables and model specification [26,27]. The Cobb–Douglas production function is widely used to express the relation of output to input [13,28] and considered as the modern perspective of economic growth [26]. This study incorporates economic activity as the output of various production factors: renewable and nonrenewable energy con­ sumption, capital, labor, and institutional stability. Further, to analyze the energy-institutional stability-environment nexus, Diet and Rosa’s environmental function [29] is incorporated. This model particularly measures the effect of population, affluence and environmentally damaging technology and has been further modified and adopted by many researchers [30]. This study has adopted the modified version of the model [13] to analyze the impact of renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption, affluence, population, and institutional stability on environmental quality. This study makes significant contributions to the literature: first, though there is an expanding literature on the energy-economic- environmental nexus, D-8 countries have rarely been targeted before. Empirical findings can vary substantially among different groups of countries, even for the same country, due to the different economic situations and chosen time periods [7,27]. So, this study will increase understanding of the sampled countries’ economies and environmental conditions. Secondly, by employing the Cobb–Douglas production function and Diet and Rosa’s environmental function, the study also makes use of traditional factors, along with some very important input factors, e.g. democracy index as an indicator of institutional stability. Political and institutional quality plays a significant role in improving environmental quality and enhancing economic growth [12,31]. We argue that sustainable development is associated with institutional sta­ bility, but only a few studies have highlighted its impact on sustainable development [26]. So, this study highlights the role of institutions as the main input factor for environmental well-being and economic output. Thirdly, this study adds to the ongoing debate on the usability of renewable and nonrenewable energy sources, by presenting a holistic view of the possible impact of explanatory variables on both economic activity and the environment. Lastly, the study has employed different econometric techniques of panel data, e.g. FMOLS, DOLS, ARDL, etc., and hence offers useful policy implications for the D-8 countries, considering the economic situation and inferential results. The next section describes the D-8 countries, followed by a literature review, specifically on the association of renewable energy, economic growth, and the environment. The following section contains the data sources and methodology, followed by results, discussion, conclusion, limitations, and policy implications. 1.1. Insight into the Developing-8 countries’ energy positions More than two decades ago, in 1997, eight Muslim countries (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Turkey), also called the D-8 (Developing 8), made a multilateral agreement with special emphasis on economic cooperation. The mem­ ber countries are considered the fastest growing countries and have huge potential for economic development, thus their consumption of energy and electricity is also growing. The per capita electricity consumption of the D-8 countries is 1031 kWh, which is well below the other non-OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation) countries, that have an average consumption of 2202 kWh per capita [32]. Only Pakistan and Turkey have a 30% share of renewable energy in their total energy production, while the rest of the countries produce over 90% of their energy from fossil fuel sources. Besides this, only Iran and Pakistan possess the ability to produce energy from nuclear sources [32] and all other member countries rely mainly on conventional sources of energy production. The working committee on renewable energy1 (WCRE) has been established for proper planning and implementation of strategies to spread aware­ ness and to take measures to increase the share of renewable energy sources. Fig. 1 presents energy production and consumption in the D-8 countries, showing their high reliance on conventional energy sources. These countries are best suited for analysis, as they are all facing the above-mentioned problems of conventional energy usage, growing economies and uneven institutional quality. 2. Literature review Production processes and modernization depend heavily on energy because sustainable economic growth cannot be achieved without an uninterrupted energy supply. Renewable energy sources are considered the best alternative to conventional sources, while a hybrid energy system is considered to be the ultimate solution, especially for rural electrification [28]. Considering the importance of renewable energy, many authors have endeavored to discover its impact on economic ac­ tives which can be classified into four types of conclusion or hypothesis. Since the pioneering study by Kraft and Kraft [33], the energy-economic nexus has been broadly studied by researchers. Generally, the association of energy consumption and economic growth fall into four types of hypotheses, each of which posits implications for policy-making [13,26,27]. The first one is the growth hypothesis that subsumes unidirectional causality from energy towards economic 1 http://developing8.org/areas-of-cooperation/renewable-energy/. Mahjabeen et al.
  • 3. Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484 3 activities. It means the higher the energy consumption, the higher the economic growth, hence, energy-saving measures and policies can have contradictory effects on economic activities. The second one is the feedback hypothesis, which is valid when there is a bidirectional rela­ tionship between energy consumption and economic growth. It means that economic growth and energy consumption affect each other and have a mutual association. The third hypothesis is the conservation hypothesis that asserts unidirectional causality from economic growth towards energy consumption. This hypothesis prevails when economic growth has a positive impact on energy consumption, while energy conservation measures and policies do not affect GDP. The last hy­ pothesis is the neutrality hypothesis that implies no causal association between energy consumption and economic growth; so, the results of previous studies comprise these findings and have found evidence of all these hypotheses. Below we will discuss the literature, specifically on renewable energy consumption and economic growth, and, in the next subsection, studies on renewable energy and the environment are reviewed. 2.1. Renewable energy consumption, economic growth and institutional stability One of the earliest studies on the causality of renewable energy and economic growth was carried out by Chein and Hu [34], when they asserted that increased renewable energy has a positive association with economic efficiency, while increased consumption of conventional en­ ergy sources leads to decreased overall economic efficiency. In a recent study, Paramati, Sinha and Dogan [13] analyzed the role of renewable energy on economic activates and CO2 emissions for the developing countries; using data from 19901 to 2012, they concluded that renew­ able energy has a positive and significant association with economic growth, while having a negative and adverse effect on CO2 emissions, hence they advocated employing more renewable energy in the current grid system to pace economic growth and to save the environment from degradation. Similarly, the same notion is adopted by Ref. [26], where the authors studied the impact of renewable energy consumption on GDP for Turkey for the period from 1990 to 2015. They found renewable energy did not affect GDP and asserted that the proportion of renewable energy was too small to have a significant impact on GDP. They further suggested increasing the share of renewable energy to decrease the deficit of energy trade. Contrary to these findings, another study analyzed the same notion for the same country and found a unidirec­ tional causality between renewable energy and economic growth, while an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) test showed the negative as­ sociation between renewable energy and economic growth [27]. Another important study on the association between renewable energy and economic development was conducted using quarterly data from 1972 to 2011. It demonstrated that renewable energy has a feedback effect with economic growth, while the rest of the variables have a long-term association with each other [28]. While analyzing the energy scenario of Pakistan, another study found that energy consumption and economic growth have bidirectional causality; at the same time, energy consumption leads to environmental degradation [20]. So a sufficient proportion of energy sources should be renewable to enable smooth economic growth without compromising the environment. Apergis and Payne [15] analyzed the relationship between renewable energy con­ sumption and economic growth in the countries of Eurasia from 1992 to 2007. The result of the heterogeneous panel co-integration test reveals the long-term equilibrium between real GDP, capital formation, labor, and renewable energy consumption. The error correction model indi­ cated a bidirectional association between economic growth and renewable energy consumption for the short and long-term periods. Most developing countries are rich in biogases, which are an important component of renewable energy. Developing countries can enhance the installed capacity of biogases to optimize their potential contribution in the energy mix [35]. In another study [7], of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), net oil importing countries, results show a bi-directional causality between both kinds of energy source and economic growth, as well as between renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption that highlights their substitutability and interdependency. The results indi­ cate that both types of energy source are essential for economic growth. Along with energy sources, the study also incorporated the regime type to analyze its impact on economic development for the of Sub-Saharan Africa for the period of 1980–2012 and found a long-term association between variables. Specifically, both sources are found to be significant for economic development, while nonrenewable energy is more salient for economic growth. Importantly, it was found that autocratic countries have less economic growth than democratic states. The role of political stability, regime type, and democracy cannot be ignored in the energy-economic growth nexus. Using data from 16 Sub- Saharan countries, Adams et al. [24] analyzed the role of regime type and energy consumption along with trade openness on economic growth. Their results confirm that democracy moderates the relation­ ship between energy consumption and economic growth. Adams et al. [14] analyzed the impact of renewable and non-renewable energy regime type on economic growth for 30 Sub-Saharan countries for the period of 1980–2012. The results of various tests indicate a long-term association among variables and that the growth rate of democratic countries is higher than in autocratic countries. Therefore, most of the previous studies have been done in bits and pieces, and the role of institutional stability in economic growth is understudied. The present study addresses the issue and applies the production function to analyze the energy-institutional stability-economic growth nexus. Fig. 1. Energy production by source (top) and consumption (bottom) of the D-8 countries (source: D8 economic outlook 2016-17). Mahjabeen et al.
  • 4. Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484 4 2.2. Renewable energy consumption, environmental quality and institutional stability Renewable energy has a significant role in controlling environmental degradation and energy transition [36]. The causality between energy consumption and environmental degradation has been the subject of intensive studies for the last two decades, with particular emphasis on renewable energy. The literature covers a wide range of geographical locations, a number of explanatory variables and a variety of econo­ metric tools. In the next section, we will discuss these studies. One of the earlier studies on the association between renewable energy and environmental degradation was conducted by Sadorsky [37], who analyzed the causal relationship for 18 emerging countries for the period from 1994 to 2003, conducting Granger causality and Padroni co-integration tests. The results supported the neutrality hy­ pothesis in the short term and conservation hypothesis in the long run. In another study by Apergis and Payne [38], determinants of renewable energy for the 25 OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) countries for the time span of 1980–2011 were analyzed. Results of the co-integration and error correction model tests showed the long-term relationships between renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions and the rest of the variables, while they also found the evi­ dence of feedback hypothesis. Similarly, the association between renewable energy, environmental degradation and economic growth has been analyzed for the period of 1975–2008 in 12 MENA countries [39]. Applying the panel co-integration test, results showed evidence of the conservation hypothesis in the long run and the growth hypothesis in the short term. By adding trade openness to the explanatory variables of the production function, the association between economic output, renewable energy and CO2 emissions for the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries for the period of 1971–2010 was analyzed [40]. The results of the bound ARDL test reveal the con­ servation hypothesis for India and South Africa. The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis was examined by incorporating renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption as explanatory variables for the time span of 1970–2012 [41]. The result of this study confirmed bidi­ rectional causality between renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions, as well as non-renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Further, the researchers found a significant negative associ­ ation between renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions and a positive association between non-renewable energy consumption and environmental degradation. In another study [42], the SAARC (South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation) countries were analyzed to find possible associations among renewable energy consumption, poverty, GDP and natural resource depletion. The results of the FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square) approach showed a significant association, while the causality test confirms the growth hypothesis between variables. According to Sarkodie and Adams [12], institutional quality plays a significant role in maintaining environmental quality and energy regu­ lations. For their regional study of South Africa, they employed ARDL with a structural break cumulative sum test and results reveal that the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis holds in South Africa and that diversification of the energy portfolio through renewable energy is required to reduce air pollution and vulnerability to energy price changes. In the energy-economic-environment nexus, Bekun, Alola and Sarkodie [43] added the natural resource rent and results of the pooled mean group ARDL suggest a positive association between resource rent and carbon emissions in the long run. The causality analysis depicts a feedback mechanism between economic growth, renewable and nonrenewable energy. Dong, Sun and Hochman [44] advocate the consumption of natural gas and renewable energy for environmental sustainability and their analysis confirms the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for the BRICS countries. Further, the causality analysis explains the feedback mechanism among natural gas, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth. By employing the latest method­ ology and allowing for cross-section dependence and slope heteroge­ neity, key impact factors for carbon emission are analyzed by Ref. [45] by including a large sample of 128 countries; overall results indicate a negative association of renewable energy and carbon emission. Con­ trolling for the effect of the ecological footprint, Saint Akadiri, Bekun and Sarkodie [46] analyzed the impact of energy consumption and GDP per capita on environmental quality in South Africa. Results indicate that pollution and environmental degradation is not output-driven but depends on energy consumption and production. Using an unbalanced panel of 128 countries, Dong et al. [11] analyzed the impact of renew­ able energy, population and economic growth on CO2 emissions. Considering the slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, the authors employed the common correlated effect mean group, whose results indicate that population and economic growth have a significant positive influence on carbon emissions, both at a global and regional level. Similarly, a study by Sarkodie and Strezov [47] shows that the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis holds in Australia. Proposing a transition from energy-intensive industries to less carbon-intensive in­ dustries, the results of DOLS (Dynamic Ordinary Least Square) and FMOLS indicate that disaggregated energy sources, along with energy imports and exports, have a positive influence on the ecological foot­ print and carbon emissions in Australia. Contrary to the above findings, some studies, however, show that there is no differential effect of renewable and nonrenewable energy on carbon emission and pollution. The study by Farhani and Shahbaz [16] analyzed the impact of renewable and nonrenewable energy consump­ tion on CO2 emissions for MENA countries. The results of DOLS and FMOLS show that both kinds of energy contribute to CO2 emissions. Similarly, the study by Bilgili, Koçak and Bulut [18] researches the same concept by analyzing the 17 OECD countries for the period from 1997 to 2010. Another study [17] analyzed data from 16 European countries for the period 1990–2008. The results of ordinary least square (OLS) and fixed effect reveal that both kinds of energy contribute to greenhouse gas emissions; however, renewable energy contributes less than nonre­ newable energy. Further, the authors state that renewable energy has a positive association with the environment when it reaches a certain minimum threshold. The reason for the contribution to environmental degradation is the lack of production and storage quality and technology Table 1 Data sources and description. Code Variable name source CO2E Carbon Dioxide Emission ¼ Metric Tons Per Capita WDI, EDGAR Y (GDP) Gross Domestic Product Per Capita WDI IS Institutional stability ¼ average for political rights and civil liberty (1–7) Freedom House NREC Non-renewable energy consumption ¼ kilo ton of oil equivalent WDI REC Renewable energy consumption ¼ % share of renewable energy in total energy consumption WDI K Capital formation ¼ gross fixed capital formation % of GDP WDI L Labor ¼ total employment from the age of 15þ WDI PI Per capita income WDI POPG Population growth annually WDI Note: WDI¼ World Development Indicator, EDGAR ¼ Emission Database on Global Atmosphere. Mahjabeen et al.
  • 5. Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484 5 as well as poor transmission systems [19]. So the negative effect of renewable energy can be controlled by proper management and trans­ mission technology in the grid system. The role of institutions and economic freedom is taking a stance in resource management literature. Al-Mulali and Ozturk [48] analyzed the influence of political stability on environmental quality, along with energy consumption, trade openness, urbanization and the ecological footprint for 14 MENA countries. By employing FMOLS, the authors found that political stability plays an important role in controlling environmental quality. Similarly, another study [3] added economic freedom to the energy-growth-environment nexus for 85 developed and developing countries. The results of FMOLS indicate that the role of institutions, as well as renewable energy, have a significant positive impact on economic growth and environmental quality. According to Adams and Klobodu [31], democracy and bureaucratic quality are the main determinants of environmental quality. In a nutshell, the findings on the potential contribution of renewable energy to environmental quality are not clear. Furthermore, there is scant literature on the possible impact of institutional stability and quality in environmental maintenance. The present study fills this gap by employing the Diet and Rosa environmental function to analyze the energy-institutional stability-environment nexus. 3. Methods and material The main objectives of the present study are to analyze both the renewable energy-institutional stability-economic growth nexus and the renewable energy-institutional stability-environmental quality nexus of the D-8 countries. The panel dataset is constructed using the time span from 1990 to 2016 (27 observations per cross-section). To analyze the economic growth nexus, this study has employed the modified Cobb–Douglas production function, where the impact of the different input variables is analyzed on the economic activity of the D-8 countries. Following previous studies, this one has used nonrenewable energy consumption in the model as a comparison with renewable energy consumption. Furthermore, we cannot exclude conventional energy sources from the model to avoid the bias and error of omitted variables, as previous studies have shown a significant association of fossil fuel energy with economic output and environmental quality. The first model of the study pertains to capital, labor, technology as a traditional factor of production, along with renewable and nonrenew­ able energy consumption and democracy index (institutional stability). The initial production function is Y ¼ ​ fðKLTÞ The modified production function for the study is Y ¼ fðK L IS REC NRECÞ After adding parameters, the equation form is Y ¼ α þ β1ðKitÞ þ B2ðLitÞ þ β3ðNRECitÞ þ β4ðRECitÞ þ B5ðISitÞ þ ε (1) Table 1 contains details of the variables along with measurement units and data sources. The data is measured in different units, which can cause problems associated with the distributional properties of the data series [13], so, following the previous literature, all the variables are transformed into a natural logarithm. The log-linear production function is ln Y ¼ α þ β1ðlnKitÞ þ B2ðlnLitÞ þ β3ðlnNRECitÞ þ β4ðRlnRECitÞ þ B5ðInISitÞ þ ε (2) To analyze the renewable-institutional stability-environmental quality nexus, Diet and Rosa’s environmental function is adopted. The model, originally developed by Rosa [29], has been subject to devel­ opment and changes, and many authors have added different parame­ ters according to their study objectives, along with the basic parameters e.g. population, per capita income, and affluence technology. In this study, the model modified by Paramati, Sinha and Dogan [13] is adopted and a measure of institutional stability is added to the equation. CO2E ¼ fðPOPG PI IS REC NRECÞ After adding the parameters, the equation form is CO2E ¼ α þ β1ðPIitÞ þ β2ðPOPGitÞ þ β3ðNRECitÞ þ β4ðRECitÞ þ β5ðISitÞ þ ε (3) To overcome the distribution properties of data series, all variables are transformed into a natural logarithm. The log-linear equation for the study is lnCO2E ¼ α þ β1ðlnPIitÞ þ β2ðlnPOPGitÞ þ β3ðlnNRECitÞ þ β4ðlnRECitÞ þ β5ðlnISitÞ þ ε (4) The study has employed ARDL estimation for co-integration as it has many advantages over other co-integration techniques. ARDL estima­ tion gives rigorous results for a small sample and allows multiple pre­ dictors to have different lag orders [12]. Based on ARDL estimation, the empirical specification of equations (3) and (4) is: where lnCO2E, ln, lnPI, lnPOPG, lnK, lnL, lnNREC, lnREC, lnIS indicate natural log forms of carbon dioxide emission, economic growth, per capita income, population growth, capital formation, labor employed, nonrenewable energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, and institutional stability measured as the average of civil liberty and ΔlnYt ¼ α0 þ δ1Yt À 1 þ δ2 ln KtÀ 1 þ δ3 ln LtÀ 1 þ δ4 ln NRECtÀ 1 þ δ5 ln RECtÀ 1 þ δ6 ln IStÀ 1þ Xp i¼1 β1jΔY À i þ Xp i¼0 β2jΔlnKt À i þ Xp i¼0 β3jΔlnLt À i þ Xp i¼0 β4jΔlnNRECt À i þ Xp i¼0 β5jΔlnRECt À i þ Xp i¼0 β6jΔlnISt À i þ εt (5) ΔlnCO2t ¼ α0 þ δ1CO2t À 1 þ δ2 ln PItÀ 1 þ δ3 ln POPGtÀ 1 þ δ4 ln NRECtÀ 1 þ δ5 ln RECtÀ 1 þ δ6 ln ISt À 1þ Xp i¼1 β1jΔCO2t À i þ Xp i¼0 β2jΔlnPIt À 1 þ Xp i¼0 β3jΔlnPOPGt À 1 þ Xp i¼0 β4jΔlnNRECt À 1 þ Xp i¼0 β5jΔlnRECt À 1 þ Xp i¼0 β6jΔlnISt À 1 þ εt (6) Mahjabeen et al.
  • 6. Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484 6 political rights [26] respectively. α denotes the intercept, Δ is the first difference operator, p is the lag order, β and δ denote the slope coeffi­ cient, ε is a stochastic term. 4. Results and discussion The empirical testing of the study begins with descriptive statistics and the correlation matrix. Table 2 presents the correlation matrix and the descriptive statistics of all the variables. The descriptive statistics indicate that there are no outliers in the data and the data is stable. The correlation matrix indicates that some independent variables have a high correlation but, in the panel data analysis, the number of obser­ vations is greater than the time series analysis, which reduces the concern of multicollinearity [49]. There is a strong and positive corre­ lation (0.859081) between GDP and renewable energy consumption; on the other hand, the correlation between nonrenewable energy con­ sumption and GDP is À 0.35996. For carbon emissions, renewable en­ ergy has a negative (À 0.43778) correlation with environmental degradation, indicating the opposite direction of variables, whereas nonrenewable energy has a positive correlation (0.634464). The examination of the order of the variables is the most important step before applying any other econometric tools because it determines the selection of models for empirical analysis. To estimate the distri­ butional properties of the variables, four different panel unit root tests are examined, where the Lavin-Lin-Chu (LLC) test is used to examine the common unit test while the individual unit-roots are analyzed by the Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF), Im-Pesaran-Shin (IPS) and Philips- Perron(PP) tets. The analysis of the integration and application of these tests is very important, e.g. if results confirm the stationary at I (1), they indicate that all the variables are stationary at first difference or first-order differentials and not stationary at a level so the variables might cointegrate as a group in the long run. Table 3 presents the results of the unit root test that indicates some of the variables are stationary at the level and others are stationary at first difference. Institutional sta­ bility and nonrenewable energy are stationary at a level while the rest of the variables are stationary at first difference. A decision was made regarding the significance of majority results, i.e., if three out of four tests indicate stationarity at the level, then the variable would be considered as stationary at level. The same is the case for the first dif­ ference. It is important to note that none of the variables are stationary at second difference 1(2), which leads to the estimation of the ARDL cointegration bound testing. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach of cointegration developed by Ref. [50] is employed in this study, as this econometric tool is widely used [13,27,28] and has many advantages over other cointegration tools, e.g. Johansen and Juselius. Other cointegration tools use more than one equation in establishing long-term parameters while ARDL uses one equation. This approach can also be used whether the variables are stationary at the level or at first-order [26]. It also avoids the endogeneity problem and serial correlation and, finally, it is most suitable for small samples. The ARDL test was followed by a Wald test to determine the robustness of the estimates through the F-statistics. The null hypothesis for the Wald test assumes no cointegration among the parameters (β1 ¼ β2 ¼ β3 ¼ β4 ¼ β5 ¼ 0) while the alternative hypothesis assumes cointegration among variables (β1 6¼ β2 6¼ β3 6¼ β4 6¼ β5 6¼ 0). The short-term results of the ARDL tests are presented in Table 4 for both models. The Akaike info criterion (AIC) is selected with a “constant trend” option, while the optimal lag length for economic output function is one and, for the environment function, the lag length is 2. The results for the environmental function indicate that all the variables have a significant association with their dependent variables; population growth contributes negatively to environmental degradation so that a 1% increase in population results in a 1.445% decrease in environmental quality. Particularly, renewable energy has a negative Table 2 Descriptive statistics and correlation matrix of D-8 countries. MEAN SD LNIS LNREC LNNREC LNPOP LNPI LNK LNL LNGDP LNCO2E LNIS 1.49228 0.25722 1 LNREC 8.85905 1.50054 À 0.44668 1 LNNREC 4.15913 0.57359 0.08275 À 0.68494 1 LNPOPG 0.63319 0.34364 0.13043 0.22070 À 0.69633 1 LNPI 7.63854 1.04561 À 0.05602 0.18233 À 0.04892 0.05938 1 LNK 3.03774 0.38800 À 0.10176 À 0.32104 0.73951 À 0.68791 0.00282 1 LNL 3.79550 0.34795 À 0.26260 À 0.31193 0.71621 À 0.61083 À 0.33963 0.66085 1 LNGDP 25.67461 1.51152 À 0.10897 À 0.35996 0.85908 À 0.83766 0.02098 0.72596 0.74674 1 LNCO2E 0.45466 1.10431 0.22101 À 0.43778 0.63446 À 0.40407 0.60558 0.49079 0.22797 0.61612 1 Table 3 Testing the stationarity of the variables. Variables LLC IPS ADF PP Decision 1(0) 1(1) 1(0) 1(1) 1(0) 1(1) 1(0) 1(1) LNCO2E À 2.1798 (0.0146) À 6.5124 0.0000 0.26136 (0.6031) 6.77555 0.0000 11.6462 À 0.7680 75.0730 0.0000 13.0309 À 0.6705 151.610 0.0000 1(1) LNGDP 2.42662 (0.9924 À 2.33925 (0.0097) 5.72021 (1.0000) 4.79507 (0.0000) 2.41804 (1.0000) 54.2891 (0.0000) 6.02684 (0.9878) 102.699 (0.0000) 1(1) LNIS À 1.0159 (0.1548) À 5.44871 (0.0000) À 2.14484 (0.0160) 7.07762 (0.0000) 29.3938 À 0.0214 78.7041 (0.0000) 30.3527 (0.0163) 119.682 (0.0000) 1(0) LNNREC À 4.0739 0.0000 À 6.2060 (0.0000) À 1.9925 À 0.0232 À 6.1070 (0.0000) 29.9875 À 0.0181 66.7509 (0.0000) 45.8559 (0.0001) 45.8559 (0.0001) 1(0) LNREC À 0.8871 À 0.1875 À 5.4370 0.0000 1.8666 À 0.9690 À 5.5890 0.0000 7.4383 (0.9639) 61.0456 (0.0000) 7.1538 (0.9702) 109.5280 (0.0000) 1(1) LNK À 1.72404 (0.0424) À 6.6695 (0.0000) À 0.5293 (0.2983) À 6.4174 (0.0000) 14.1433 À 0.5880 70.5948 (0.0000) 16.1385 (0.4433) 91.9635 (0.0000) 1(1) LNL 3.9568 À 1.0000 9.1130 À 1.0000 0.62870 (0.7352) À 3.7782 À 0.0001 11.5108 (0.7769) 44.7561 À 0.0002 24.4403 À 0.0803 85.2033 0.0000 1(1) LNPI 0.61523 (À 0.7308) À 4.4405 (0.0000) 2.76075 (À 0.9971) À 5.1930 (0.0000) 4.66816 (0.9972) 56.9754 (0.0000) 3.1595 (0.9998) 90.0874 (0.0000) 1(1) LNPOPG 0.32566 (0.6277) À 3.0715 À 0.0011 0.60691 À 0.7280 À 5.2828 (0.0000) 14.2645 À 0.5790 63.7080 0.0000 39.9819 (0.0008) 22.1500 (0.1384) 1(1) Mahjabeen et al.
  • 7. Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484 7 association with CO2 emissions, which has important implications for policymakers. Interestingly, nonrenewable energy consumption has an inverse relationship with CO2 emissions; on the other hand, per capita income and democracy index have positive associations. All parameters have a positive association with economic output, which implies the positive contribution of disaggregated energy sources and other pro­ duction factors. The institutional stability measure, however, shows a significant but negative correlation with economic activity. Previously, Bulut and Muratoglu [26] found this variable had a negative but insig­ nificant impact on Turkish economic activity. We can interpret this finding as a lower institutional stability index showing high stability, so high stability has a positive relationship with economic activity. The Wald test statistics showed a significant probability (0.000) F-statistics (134.6705, 384.6973) that showed the robustness of the model and the long-term associations among variables. These estimates led the authors to test long-term elasticities. After determining the co-integration among variables, the long-run elasticities or parameters can be determined through ordinary least square (OLS), dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) tests developed by Pedroni [51]. The estimated cointegrated vector through OLS is super convergent with the asymptotically biased distribution. These problems are similar for time series as well as for panel data and more salient even in the presence of heterogeneity [39]. Using the semiparametric corrections, FMOLS ac­ counts for serial correlation and endogeneity in errors; on the other hand, DOLS uses the generalized least square procedure to correct the serial correlation in errors and leads and lags to correct the endogeneity in regressors [14]. So, the study has employed both estimators for robustness checks to estimate the long-term elasticities of variables, as both techniques correct the endogeneity and serial correlation problems. Table 5 presents the results of DOLS and FMOLS estimates. Results of FMOLS indicate that the institutional stability index has a negative and significant association with economic output; we can interpret this as a low institutional stability index indicating high stability (1 ¼ most stable, 7 ¼ least), that is why increased political stability will create increased economic output. So institutional stability plays a vital role in establishing the economy on a healthy footing. On the other hand, the DOLS results show a negative but insignificant association of institu­ tional stability with economic output as found by Bulut and Muratoglu [26] in their DOLS estimation of democracy in a regional study of Turkey. Both capital and labor are significant contributors to economic output in both methods. The important parameters of economic output, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption contribute posi­ tively to economic development. So, both types of energy are essential for economic growth. This finding has a significant policy implication as it appeals to a blend of both types of energy and recommendations of a gradual transition to an eco-friendly energy system. Coming to the environment function, the FMOLS results indicate that the institutional stability index has a significant association with the environment, while it is insignificant in the DOLS estimation. Focusing on FMOLS estimation, we can infer that institutional stability and environmental degradation have a negative and significant association, as institutional stability will decrease environmental degradation by 0.31%. Population growth does not show a significant association while per capita income has a significant and positive impact on carbon emissions, which implies an increase in income spurs CO2 emissions. We can presume therefore that the people of this region are not environ­ mentally conscious yet, as they pollute their environment more as their level of income increases, so the government needs to establish a proper awareness campaign to educate the public about the importance of a clean environment. Both renewable and non-renewable energy consumption have sig­ nificant links with CO2 emissions as predicted in FMOLS, but the results reveal that the beta coefficient of renewable energy consumption is much less than that of nonrenewable energy consumption, which im­ plies that renewable energy consumption has a less damaging impact on the environment than nonrenewable energy consumption. We can further argue that renewable energy consumption needs technological involvement and proper planning of capital resources, but these coun­ tries are lacking in these fields, which is why renewable energy con­ sumption is adding to the environmental pollution to some extent. Focusing on institutional quality, we can further argue that governments need to focus on technical aspects, clean production and consumption of energy, as most of the sources of renewable energy production are biogases and animal dungs that also have implications for the environ­ ment. So curtailing conventional sources and increasing clean produc­ tion of renewable energy with greater emphasis on photovoltaic energy are recommended to grasp this opportunity. The study proposed causality between independent variables and dependent variables for both of the equations. To analyze whether the causality is bidirectional, one way or if there is no causal association, the Granger causality approach is employed. The results presented in Table 6 indicate that there is no bidirectional causality between vari­ ables. As far as unidirectional causality is concerned, institutional sta­ bility Granger causes carbon emissions and renewable energy Table 4 Short term estimate of ARDL test. CO2E ¼ fðPOPG PI DI REC NRECÞ Y ¼ fðK L DI REC NRECÞ Variables Coefficient T-Stat Sig Variables Coefficient T-Stat Sig LNPOPG À 1.445118 À 5.21328 0.0000 LNIS À 0.232521 À 3.257713 0.0014 LNIS 0.253302 2.61238 0.0103 LNK 0.280819 3.174422 0.0018 LNNREC À 2.761693 À 3.48599 0.0007 LNL 0.686186 2.639437 0.0092 LNPI 0.645139 8.58696 0.0000 LNNREC 7.092142 13.64693 0.0000 LNREC À 0.590357 À 2.26751 0.0254 LNREC 1.207882 11.85181 0.0000 AIC ¼ À 2.717660, Schwarz criterion ¼ À 1.01439 AIC ¼ À 4.38704, Schwarz criterion ¼ À 3.433836 Wald test statistics Wald test statistics F-statistic ¼ 134.6705, p value ¼ 0.0000 F-statistic ¼ 384.6973, p value ¼ 0.0000 Chi-square ¼ 673.3525, p value ¼ 0.0000 Chi-square ¼ 1923.487, p value ¼ 0.0000 Table 5 DOLS and FMOLS estimates of long-term elasticities. Y ¼ fðK L IS REC NRECÞ CO2E ¼ fðPOPG PI IS REC NRECÞ Variables Coefficient Prob Variables Coefficient Prob FMOLS estimates LNIS À 0.13431 0.0352 LNIS À 0.31502 0.002 LNK 0.140893 0.0014 LNPOPG À 0.12485 0.6634 LNL À 0.5658 0.0504 LNPI 0.133255 0.0129 LNNREC 10.06462 0.0000 LNREC 0.575134 0.0011 LNREC 1.149324 0.0000 LNNREC 5.58897 0.0000 DOLS estimates LNIS À 0.4177 0.0783 LNIS À 0.12213 0.6033 LNK 0.372146 0.0067 LNPOPG À 0.54772 0.1488 LNL À 1.94931 0.0012 LNPI 0.309957 0.0065 LNNREC 13.19915 0.0000 LNREC 0.194662 0.2329 LNREC 1.24247 0.0000 LNNREC À 2.03874 0.0352 Mahjabeen et al.
  • 8. Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484 8 consumption Granger causes institutional stability. For the second model, GDP and institutional stability Granger causes capital formation, labor force Granger causes GDP, while renewable energy Granger causes the capital formation and capital formation Granger causes nonrenew­ able energy. The study neither found any causality between energy consumption and economic growth nor with carbon emissions, hence the results support the neutrality hypothesis. The findings of the neutrality hypothesis are in line with previous findings where the au­ thors have found no causal link [26], despite finding short and long-term associations among variables. 5. Conclusion Energy has become a strategic commodity without which the func­ tioning of the economy is threatened, especially in developing countries. Developing countries are facing the two-sided sword of energy chal­ lenges: On one hand, they have to overcome energy shortages and meet energy demand, while, on the other hand, environmental degradation poses a serious threat to sustainable development. That is why efforts are being made to spread the awareness of the utility and environmental compatibility of renewable energy. This study seeks to analyze the impact of renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption and insti­ tutional stability, along with other factors, on the environment and economic output or activity. The analysis is divided into two models; the first model pertains to the energy-institutional stability-economic growth nexus that incorporates the modified Cobb–Douglas production function. The second model pertains to the energy-institutional stability- environment quality nexus that incorporates the Diet and Rosa envi­ ronmental function. D-8 countries were selected for analysis, as they mostly depend on conventional energy sources and suffer from low institutional quality. The data time period spans from 1990 to 2016 and panel data methodology is adopted for analysis. The authors applied different econometric techniques for the statistical analysis. The unit root test indicates that some of the variables are stationary at a level and some variables are stationary at first difference; that is why the ARDL bounds testing approach was incorporated to analyze the cointegration among variables. The results of both the equations indicate significant cointegration for the constituents of both functions. Further, the long- term elasticities are measured through FMOLS and DOLS estimation, where results indicate that both renewable and non-renewable energy has a strong association with economic development, as well as contributing to carbon emissions. However, the negative effect of renewable energy is much less than of nonrenewable energy. The vari­ able of institutional stability positively impacts economic growth and environmental quality. The Granger causality results of the study sup­ port the neutrality hypothesis, as no causality is found in economic output and energy consumption. Although the study has incorporated different indicators and mea­ sures, it is not beyond certain limitations. First, the study has employed important input factors for both of the functions but authors suggest incorporating some other resources as an input factor for environmental quality and economic growth, e.g. water resources, natural resource depletion. Second, the financial and economic integrations of economies and the mutual interplay of resources leads to common shocks and dependence of economies on each other that is termed “cross-sectional dependence”. The study has employed first-generation techniques of panel data analysis; ARDL, FMOLS and DOLS do not allow the consid­ eration of cross-sectional dependence, the authors suggest incorporating the second-generation techniques of panel data analysis that addresses the cross-sectional dependence issue more accurately, e.g. dynamic common correlated method, common correlated effect mean group estimators. 5.1. Policy implications Institutional stability is the basic parameter without which sustain­ able development cannot be imagined. The governments of these countries need to focus on cleaner energy production and the specific agenda of environmental protection to achieve sustainable development goals. Other suitable policy suggestions are: Table 6 Granger causality test. Variables Links F-statistics (p-value) Decision Variables Links F-statistics (p-value) Decision LNIS toward LNCO2E 8.90070 (0.0002) LNIS →LN CO2E LNIS towards LNGDP 2.48580 (0.0859) No causality LNCCO2E toward LNIS 1.23828 (0.2922) LNGDP towards LNIS 0.13878 (0.8705) LNPOPG towards LN CO2E 1.72636 (0.1806) No causality LNK towards LNGDP 0.31723 (0.7285) LNGDP→LNK LNCO2E towards LNPOPG 0.15360 (0.8577) LNGDP towards LNK 4.03479 (0.00192) LNPI towards LN CO2E 2.21398 (0.1120) No causality LNL towards LNGDP 5.03387(0.0074) LNL →LNGDP LNCO2E towards LNPI 1.79590 (0.1687) LNGDP towards LNL 0.12130 (0.8858) LNREC towards LN CO2E 0.96264 (0.3837) No causality LNNREC towards LNGDP 0.66090 (0.5175) No causality LNCO2E towards LNREC 0.21365(0.8078) LNGDP towards LNNREC 0.01937 (0.9808) LNNREC towards LN CO2E 2.88959 (0.0580) No causality LNREC towards LNGDP 1.59010 (0.2065) No causality LNCO2E towards LNNREC 2.16708 (0.1173) LNGDP towards LNREC 0.21113 (0.8099) LNPOPG towards LNIS 0.83291 (0.4363) No causality LNK towards LNIS 0.45486 (0.6352) LNIS →LNK LNIS towards LNPOPG 0.58182 (0.5598) LNIS towards LNK 3.46012 (0.0334) LNPI towards LNIS 1.74885(0.1767) No causality LNL towards LNIS 0.32191 (0.7252) No causality LNIS towards LNPI 1.40277(0.2484) LNIS towards LNL 0.33057 (0.7189) LNREC towards LNIS 4.09167 (0.0182) LNREC → LNIS LNNREC towards LNIS 0.31186 (0.7324) No causality LNIS towards LNREC 0.00250 (0.9975) LNIS towards LNNREC 0.02067 (0.9795) LNNREC towards LNIS 0.31186 (0.7324) No causality LNREC towards LNIS 4.09167 (0.0182) LNREC→LNIS LNIS towards LNNREC 0.02067 (0.9795) LNIS towards LNREC 0.00250 (0.9975) LNPI towards LNPOPG 0.36700 (0.6933) No causality LNL towards LNK 1.68114 (0.1888) No causality LNPOPG towards LNPI 1.91489 (0.1501) LNK towards LNL 0.98418 (0.3756) LNREC towards LNPOPG 0.06775 (0.9345) No causality LNNREC towards LNK 1.99022 (0.2394) LNK→LNNREC LNPOPG towards LNREC 1.10422 (0.3335) LNK towards LNNREC 8.11877 (0.0004) LNNREC towards LNPOPG 2.13534 (0.1210) No causality LNREC towards LNK 0.08201 (0.9213) No causality LNPOPG towards LNNREC 0.21192 (0.8092) LNK towards LNREC 0.09283 (0.9114) LNREC towards LNPI 0.36036(0.6970) No causality LNNREC towards LNL 0.22837 (0.796) No causality LNPI towards LNREC 0.51532 (0.5981) LNL towards LNNREC 0.65823 (0.5189) LNNREC towards LNPI 0.10324 (0.9020) No causality LNREC towards LNL 0.27677 (0.7585) No causality LNPI towards LNNREC 0.43092 (0.6505 LNL towards LNREC 0.34808 (0.7065) LNNREC towards LNREC 0.03960 (0.9612) No causality LNREC towards LNNREC 0.06929 (0.9331) No causality LNREC towards LNNREC 0.06929 (0.9331) LNNREC towards LNREC 0.03960 (0.9612) Mahjabeen et al.
  • 9. Energy Strategy Reviews 29 (2020) 100484 9 ➢ These countries are naturally blessed with different renewable en­ ergy sources due to their geographical location. But the statistics show that hydropower is the major source of renewable energy in these countries. So, the governments should not remain limited to this source and must invest in other sources to capitalize on other opportunities. Further, the governments should subsidize renewable energy consumption and should also maintain some other incentives, especially for rural electrification through renewable energy sources. ➢ Two of the D-8 member countries, Pakistan and Iran, have the ability to produce energy through nuclear technology. Therefore, these countries can enhance the production of renewable energy through nuclear technology for local use as well as for trade purposes. D-8 countries have various contracts along with efficient energy provi­ sion, so these countries can come up with effective nuclear as well as other energy trade agreements. ➢ Imposing a carbon tax on the excessive use of conventional energy sources and using that fund for proper procurement of renewable energy will eventually enable renewable energy to compete with conventional sources. So the governments are recommended to ensure the proper implementation of policies to abate the environ­ mental consequences of conventional energy sources. ➢ Last but not least, a public awareness campaign, to spread the knowledge about the usability of renewable energy and anthropo­ genic implications of conventional energy, should be scheduled through proper training and programs. The governments of these countries are encouraged to arrange such a media campaign to urge and educate the public to participate in making the world a better place to live in for themselves and future generations. Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. CRediT authorship contribution statement Mahjabeen: Conceptualization, Writing - original draft, Data cura­ tion. Syed Z.A. Shah: Conceptualization, Supervision, Validation. Sumayya Chughtai: Methodology, Software, Writing - review & edit­ ing. Biagio Simonetti: Formal analysis. References [1] S. Sen, S. Ganguly, Opportunities, barriers and issues with renewable energy development – a discussion, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 69 (2017) 1170–1181, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.09.137. [2] T.W. Brown, T. Bischof-Niemz, K. Blok, C. Breyer, H. Lund, B.V. Mathiesen, Response to ‘Burden of proof: a comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems,’, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 92 (2018) 834–847, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.04.113. [3] M. 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