Presentation about the possible causes and explanations of the European refugee crisis of 2015. The immigration pattern is compared to that of the Californian Gold Rush.

1. Refugees
A problem of all centuries?
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Jacques Bazen

2. Thomas Malthus
Reverend Thomas Malthus (1797): “Essay on the
Principle of Population”. The world’s population is a
ticking time bomb and a problem for reaching a happy
wealthy society. Expected collapse in half 19th century
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4. Thomas Malthus and his predictions
The predictions of Malthus did not come true… Mankind
invented the steam engine and food production
increased sharply. In the 20th century GMO-foods.
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5. Thomas Malthus
Malthusian view became
synonym with misanthropic
pessimistic view on the future.
Later in the 20th century the
“Club of Rome” with their
famous report: Boundaries to
growth got the same
“treatment” 5

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8. Current stream of refugees
Is the underlying cause of the current refugee stream
actually a Malthusian scenario?
There are some arguments for it:
- High unemployment among youth
- Few economic opportunities
- Lack of freedom / dictatorships / religious intolerance
- Strong population growth
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Tahrir square, Cairo

10. Current stream of refugees
Or maybe there is another cause:
Simply bad government leading to less opportunities for
ordinary people.
What were the people at Tahrir square and other places
protesting about?
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12. Arab Spring 2012
The Arab Spring was an attempt in many Arab countries
to do away with previous dictatorship governments.
Results:
- Lack of democratic understanding / lack of trust: semi-
tribal societies
- Religious extremism as answer to perceived external
threats: Middle East form of “nationalism”
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13. Failure of most of the Arab states
“Institutional” theorists suggest the current
troubles in the Arab world are most likely the
consequence of the extractive nature of its
government institutions.
In other words: Any move towards real
democracy and freedom means a threat for the
personal interests of the elite in control: they risk
losing “a share of the pie”. In Egypt: The army
with its power intervened…

14. Inclusive versus Extractive institutions
Inclusive countries: Extractive countries:
- Rule of law - Rule of elite
- Equality for all: - Some are more equal
Solid property rights than others
- Aimed at effectiveness - Aimed at interests of
and efficiency the ruling class
- Encouragement of - Encouragement of clientelism:
Entrepreneurship: incentive to be government
Incentive to invest official or politician.

15. Developments in the Arab World (I)
• Process of modern state forming in Europe largely
passed the Arab world: Instead, many Middle East
countries were colonies.
• Borders have been drawn arbitrarily by colonial
powers when cutting up the Ottoman Empire.
• Societies are mainly tribal oriented, not national.
• Weak states: Strong dictatorships to keep the
countries together
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16. Developments in the Arab World (II)
• Over the last 15 years: Many interventions from
Western European countries.
• Motivated by “War on Terror”
• Result: Regime changes
• Instalment of democracies in tribal societies: Recipe
for disaster
• Political instability: Creation of ISIS
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18. Is the West responsible for the creation of ISIS?
US and European invasion in Iraq created an
unsustainable situation with a new sectarian
government.
In the semi-tribal state Iraq, the new Shia leaders
immediately started to oppress the old Sunni elite.
USA disbanded Iraq’s army  many angry unemployed
young men… Disintegration of Syria gave them the
opportunity to join a “protest movement”.
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21. Refugee camps Iraq
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22. Refugee camps Iraq
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23. Refugee camps Iraq
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24. Fleeing to Europe
Factors of influence:
Human trafficking
Chain migration (good stories
of earlier migrants give others
the conviction that they can
have the same)
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25. Critical mass
If enough people migrate, and a certain
critical mass is reached, then suddenly
some mass effects can occur.
Malcolm Gladwell described the
phenomenon in his book “The tipping
point”
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“Gold rush” migration style
Mass-hysteria: unrealistic
expectations about prospects in
the target country fuelled by
early goers leads to massive
numbers of migrants

27. Gold Rush of California
In the beginning, media fuelled the motivation to get
to California. Especially Samuel Brennan, a trader,
spread the rumours in the media, triggering a
Gladwell-style mass effect.
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28. Media channels in 2015
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29. Effects of the Gold Rush of California
Positive effects: Californian population boomed, as did
cities like San Francisco and Sacramento.
Infrastructure was built and California became one of
the states of the USA in 1850
Negative effects: Violence and killing of Native
Americans. Many immigrants died because of
hardships.
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30. Effects of the Mass Immigration in Europe
To obtain positive effects of this
current Mass Immigration
(and probably several more million refugees are waiting for after
the winter to “storm Fortress Europe”) depends on the ability of
the European countries to quickly integrate the newcomers in
their societies.
There are examples what happens if this process is not
successful.
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31. The “Völkerwanderung” / Migration period
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32. The “Völkerwanderung” / Migration period
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Different Germanic tribes fleeing the Huns
immigrated into the politically weakened
West Roman Empire from the 3rd century AD.
For several reasons, the migrants were not
integrated in Roman society as was
customary before.
The consequence over time was the
destruction of the Roman Empire and a
period of war and violence.

33. On integration of refugees
Different positions of some writers
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34. On integration of current refugees
Huntington:
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“There are no occurrences of long-term
successful integration of large groups of
Muslims in European societies…”
“…Islam has bloody borders…”
“Religion is a central, perhaps the central
force that motivates and mobilizes people
for action”

35. On integration of refugees
The Immigrant Advantage:
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“America has become rich and prosperous
because of immigrants”.
Immigrants give us lessons to learn about
their own culture.
Their experience will enrich us.

36. On integration of refugees
The Flight of the Creative Class:
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“There is a global competition for talents. If
the USA want to stay on top, it needs to
incorporate top talents in its society…”
If America is to lose its attractiveness to the
creative class and higher educated young
people, in the long term it will suffer.
Current governmental policies discourage
top talent to study in America.

37. Scarcity and Abundance mentality
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Steven Covey:
7 Habits of highly effective
people
Abundance mentality vs.
Scarcity mentality
Is fear for immigrants a part of
scarcity mentality and a self
fulfilling prophecy for trouble?

38. Malthus revisited?
As conclusion:
- Can we expect “Malthusian end of the world style troubles”,
because of an invasion of poor immigrants trying to escape
the troubles at their home countries?
- Is the current migration flow a consequence of failing politics:
unwise interventions by foreign powers and we just have to
face the consequences?
- Can we integrate these refugees in Europe, to make it
stronger, like in California? Or are we doomed for destruction?
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