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Reconstructing the Glacial Ocean:
Weak Atlantic Overturning and Iron
Fertilization Maximize Carbon
Storage
Juan Muglia, Andreas Schmittner
College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences
Oregon State University
Kiel, Feb. 23, 2017
The Last Glacial Maximum
• ~21,000 years ago
• Surface temperatures ~ 4°C colder
• Large Ice Sheets on Northern Hemisphere Continents
• Increased sea ice cover
• Atmospheric CO2 = 180 ppm vs 280 ppm during the
pre-industrial late Holocene
• Dustier
Where was the missing
carbon and why?
• Global mean δ13C: it was in the ocean. But why?
• Circulation was weaker: Evidence: older
radiocarbon ages (Sarnthein et al., 2016)
• Sea ice reduced air-sea gas exchange (Stephens
& Keeling, 2000)
• More dust caused to increased iron fertilization
(Martin, 1990)
Address Problem by Combining
Models and Sediment Data (Isotopes)
• Radiocarbon: is most direct proxy for circulation
rate (evidence: LGM ocean was 500-600 years
older in radiocarbon years), but also impacted by
air-sea gas exchange
• δ13C used to infer water masses, directly impacted
by respired carbon, but also by air-sea gas
exchange
• δ15N used to infer nutrient utilization in Southern
Ocean, but also impacted by other processes
UVic/MOBI
• Coarse resolution ocean GCM (1.8x3.6 deg, 19
levels)
• 1-layer Energy-Moisture Balance Atmosphere
(prescribed winds and clouds; transports by
advection + diffusion)
• Dynamic/thermodynamic sea ice
• Model of Ocean Biogeochemistry and Isotopes
(MOBI)
Detritus
DIC
PO4
NO3
O2
Photosynthesis
Fast Recycling
13C
Water Column
Denitrification
Sinking
15N
15N
13C
Grazing
Mortality
Remineralization
Excretion
CO2O2
13C
N-Fixation
N2δ15NN2=0
Benthic
Denitrification
DFe
εBD ! −4‰
εWCD ! −25‰
εP ! −5‰
εP
εP
εE = −6‰
εAS
CaCO3
δ 13
C ! 2‰
13C
δ 13
CDIC ! 2‰
Phytoplankton
15N
13C δ 13
C ! −20‰
Diazotrophs
15N
13C δ 13
C ! −12‰
δ 13
C ! −20‰
Zooplankton
15N
13C δ 13
C ! −20‰
14C
Decay
δ 13
CCO2 ! −6.5‰
δ 13
CDIC ! 0.5‰
DOM
15N
13C δ 13
C ! −20‰
εP ! −20‰
εNF ! −1‰
δ 15
NNO3 ! 9‰
δ 15
NNO3 ! 5.5‰
δ 15
N ! −1‰
δ 15
N ! 4‰
δ 15
N ! 7‰
δ 15
N ! 5‰
δ 15
N ! 6‰
εG
εG
MOBI
Dust
• used the same model but without interactive iron
• explored idealized effects of “iron fertilization” through global
changes in maximum growth rates
• did not explore circulation changes
• here we want to
1. use a fully interactive iron cycle (based on Nickelsen et al.,
2015) to consider iron fertilization more realistically and
2. explore circulation changes
2016
PI LGM LGM_SO
Sediment Fluxes
Atmos-
pheric
Fluxes
LGMPI
Lower sediment fluxes due to sea level drop compensates for
increased dust fluxes. Resulting effect small. LGM_SO
experiments (10x) explore higher iron solubility in LGM dust.
Muglia et al., in review with Paleoceanogr.
Lambert et al., 2015
Circulation changes caused by
modifying moisture diffusivities
in southern hemisphere
Decreasing diffusivities leads
to reduced meridional moisture
flux and increased salinities of
AABW
This also reduces the AMOC.
Test: Can we reconstruct AMOC with sparse proxy data?
Yes, we can!
Pre-industrial
runs with
different
moisture
diffusivities.
Best fitting
model
consistent with
independent
observations
(RAPID, yellow
lines)
PI
LGM_13
LGM_8
LGM_0
obs
with and
without
outliers
PI
LGM
_13
LGM
_8
LGM
_0
N=174
Data compilation from Luke Skinner
LGM_13
LGM_8
LGM_13
_SOFE
LGM_8
_SOFE
N=434
C14-age
δ13C
LGM
LGM_SOFe
Both independent datasets suggest weak AMOC (6-9 Sv)
N=105
δ15N favor clearly increased SO Fe fertilization (beyond the
standard Fe model + dust)
Impact on DIC
SOFe
LGM
Circulation ~ 400 Pg
Iron ~ 500 Pg
Conclusions
• Best fitting models have weak (6-9 Sv) and shallow
AMOC (based on c14 and c13 constraints)
• Increase in dust and/or iron solubility in Southern
Ocean beyond standard estimates needed to
explain n15 and to affect carbon storage
• Both, circulation and iron fertilization similarly
important for increased carbon storage
Implications
• If AMOC was really that weak then
• all PMIP model simulations are wrong.
• why was it that weak?
• More measurements needed to test iron solubility
hypothesis
Future Work
• Include sediment model to quantify impacts on
whole ocean alkalinity changes and atmospheric
CO2
• Proper carbon cycle diagnostics
• Simulating early deglaciation (19-15 ka)
Vielen Dank !

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Reconstructing the Glacial Ocean: Weak Atlantic Overturning and Iron Fertilization Maximize Carbon Storage

  • 1. Reconstructing the Glacial Ocean: Weak Atlantic Overturning and Iron Fertilization Maximize Carbon Storage Juan Muglia, Andreas Schmittner College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences Oregon State University Kiel, Feb. 23, 2017
  • 2. The Last Glacial Maximum • ~21,000 years ago • Surface temperatures ~ 4°C colder • Large Ice Sheets on Northern Hemisphere Continents • Increased sea ice cover • Atmospheric CO2 = 180 ppm vs 280 ppm during the pre-industrial late Holocene • Dustier
  • 3. Where was the missing carbon and why? • Global mean δ13C: it was in the ocean. But why? • Circulation was weaker: Evidence: older radiocarbon ages (Sarnthein et al., 2016) • Sea ice reduced air-sea gas exchange (Stephens & Keeling, 2000) • More dust caused to increased iron fertilization (Martin, 1990)
  • 4. Address Problem by Combining Models and Sediment Data (Isotopes) • Radiocarbon: is most direct proxy for circulation rate (evidence: LGM ocean was 500-600 years older in radiocarbon years), but also impacted by air-sea gas exchange • δ13C used to infer water masses, directly impacted by respired carbon, but also by air-sea gas exchange • δ15N used to infer nutrient utilization in Southern Ocean, but also impacted by other processes
  • 5. UVic/MOBI • Coarse resolution ocean GCM (1.8x3.6 deg, 19 levels) • 1-layer Energy-Moisture Balance Atmosphere (prescribed winds and clouds; transports by advection + diffusion) • Dynamic/thermodynamic sea ice • Model of Ocean Biogeochemistry and Isotopes (MOBI)
  • 6. Detritus DIC PO4 NO3 O2 Photosynthesis Fast Recycling 13C Water Column Denitrification Sinking 15N 15N 13C Grazing Mortality Remineralization Excretion CO2O2 13C N-Fixation N2δ15NN2=0 Benthic Denitrification DFe εBD ! −4‰ εWCD ! −25‰ εP ! −5‰ εP εP εE = −6‰ εAS CaCO3 δ 13 C ! 2‰ 13C δ 13 CDIC ! 2‰ Phytoplankton 15N 13C δ 13 C ! −20‰ Diazotrophs 15N 13C δ 13 C ! −12‰ δ 13 C ! −20‰ Zooplankton 15N 13C δ 13 C ! −20‰ 14C Decay δ 13 CCO2 ! −6.5‰ δ 13 CDIC ! 0.5‰ DOM 15N 13C δ 13 C ! −20‰ εP ! −20‰ εNF ! −1‰ δ 15 NNO3 ! 9‰ δ 15 NNO3 ! 5.5‰ δ 15 N ! −1‰ δ 15 N ! 4‰ δ 15 N ! 7‰ δ 15 N ! 5‰ δ 15 N ! 6‰ εG εG MOBI Dust
  • 7. • used the same model but without interactive iron • explored idealized effects of “iron fertilization” through global changes in maximum growth rates • did not explore circulation changes • here we want to 1. use a fully interactive iron cycle (based on Nickelsen et al., 2015) to consider iron fertilization more realistically and 2. explore circulation changes 2016
  • 8. PI LGM LGM_SO Sediment Fluxes Atmos- pheric Fluxes LGMPI Lower sediment fluxes due to sea level drop compensates for increased dust fluxes. Resulting effect small. LGM_SO experiments (10x) explore higher iron solubility in LGM dust. Muglia et al., in review with Paleoceanogr. Lambert et al., 2015
  • 9. Circulation changes caused by modifying moisture diffusivities in southern hemisphere Decreasing diffusivities leads to reduced meridional moisture flux and increased salinities of AABW This also reduces the AMOC.
  • 10. Test: Can we reconstruct AMOC with sparse proxy data? Yes, we can! Pre-industrial runs with different moisture diffusivities. Best fitting model consistent with independent observations (RAPID, yellow lines)
  • 15. N=105 δ15N favor clearly increased SO Fe fertilization (beyond the standard Fe model + dust)
  • 16.
  • 17. Impact on DIC SOFe LGM Circulation ~ 400 Pg Iron ~ 500 Pg
  • 18. Conclusions • Best fitting models have weak (6-9 Sv) and shallow AMOC (based on c14 and c13 constraints) • Increase in dust and/or iron solubility in Southern Ocean beyond standard estimates needed to explain n15 and to affect carbon storage • Both, circulation and iron fertilization similarly important for increased carbon storage
  • 19. Implications • If AMOC was really that weak then • all PMIP model simulations are wrong. • why was it that weak? • More measurements needed to test iron solubility hypothesis
  • 20. Future Work • Include sediment model to quantify impacts on whole ocean alkalinity changes and atmospheric CO2 • Proper carbon cycle diagnostics • Simulating early deglaciation (19-15 ka)