Feb2007 rwa belgium and usa (all maps are here)Ron Lesthaeghe
Preconditions for behavioural change, "Ready, Willing and Able" paradigm and model, application to the second demographic transition, two examples: Belgium and USA
Lesthaeghe spatial continuities in demographic transitions & the rwa modelRon Lesthaeghe
Spatial continuity of first and second demographic transitions in France, Belgium and Switzerland. Demographic and social indicators for départements, arrondissements and kantons
Feb2007 rwa belgium and usa (all maps are here)Ron Lesthaeghe
Preconditions for behavioural change, "Ready, Willing and Able" paradigm and model, application to the second demographic transition, two examples: Belgium and USA
Lesthaeghe spatial continuities in demographic transitions & the rwa modelRon Lesthaeghe
Spatial continuity of first and second demographic transitions in France, Belgium and Switzerland. Demographic and social indicators for départements, arrondissements and kantons
Learn more about Diversity Explosion:
http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports2/2014/11/diversity-explosion
__________
At its optimistic best, America has embraced its identity as the world’s melting pot. Today it is on the cusp of becoming a country with no racial majority, and new minorities are poised to exert a profound impact on U.S. society, economy, and politics.
Through a compelling narrative and eye-catching charts and maps, eminent demographer William H. Frey interprets and expounds on the dramatic growth of minority populations in the United States. He finds that without these expanding groups, America could face a bleak future: this new generation of young minorities, who are having children at a faster rate than whites, is infusing our aging labor force with vitality and innovation.
Diversity Explosion shares the good news about diversity in the coming decades, and the more globalized, multiracial country that U.S. is becoming.
"The Haves and the Have Nots: A short and idiosyncratic history of global ine...Mavaddat Javid
Global Policy public lecture by Branko Milanović, lead economist in the World Bank's research department, a development specialist, he is a visiting professor at Johns Hopkins University.
David Card, Alex Mas and Jesse Rothstein's presentation for
the Penn IUR and Federal Reserve Conference, “Reinventing Older Communities: How Does Place Matter?”
MC_forecasts_finals series 17_feb2024.pdfARCResearch
Final summary slide deck for Series 17 population, employment by sector, age group forecasts for MPO region, counties, and smaller areas...February 2024
History Matters: Understanding The Role Of Policy, Race & Real Estate in Cuya...Theodore Eisenberg
Powerpoint accompanying a panel discussion on new research, commissioned by Cuyahoga PlaceMatters in partnership with The Kirwin Institute, that highlights the importance of historic real estate policies and their implications for Cuyahoga County's contemporary development issues, featuring Freddy L. Collier, Jr., Director of City Planning, City of Cleveland; Jason Reece, Director of Research, The Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity at The Ohio State University; and Brian D. Smedley, Ph.D., Co-Founder & Executive Director, National Collaborative for Health Equity. Rick Jackson of WCPN's Morning Edition moderated.
"Unpacking the 2010 Census: The New Realities of Race, Class, and Jurisdiction" is co-sponsored by Hope in the Cities and the Virginia Center for Inclusive Communities. The program examines the dramatically changing landscape of human need and what we must do collectively to address the plight of our neighbors and to build a just and inclusive community in metropolitan Richmond, Virginia. This presentation was conceived, researched and designed by Dr. John V. Moeser, Senior Fellow at the Bonner Center for Civic Engagement at the University of Richmond. Part 1 of the "Unpacking the 2010 Census" presentation focuses on the current data and demographics in metropolitan Richmond.
A Community Driven Effort to Level the Playing Field for Young Children and F...Practical Playbook
The Practical Playbook
National Meeting 2016
www.practicalplaybook.org
Bringing Public Health and Primary Care Together: The Practical Playbook National Meeting was at the Hyatt Regency in Bethesda, MD, May 22 - 24, 2016. The meeting was a milestone event towards advancing robust collaborations that improve population health. Key stakeholders from across sectors – representing professional associations, community organizations, government agencies and academic institutions – and across the country came together at the National Meeting to help catalyze a national movement, accelerate collaborations by fostering skill development, and connect with like-minded individuals and organizations to facilitate the exchange of ideas to drive population health improvement.
The National Meeting was also a significant source of tools and resources to advance collaboration. These tools and resources are available below and include:
Session presentations and materials
Poster session content
Photos from the National Meeting
The conversation started at the National Meeting is continuing in a LinkedIn Group "Working Together for Population Health" and Twitter. Use #PPBMeeting to provide feedback on the National Meeting.
The Practical Playbook was developed by the de Beaumont Foundation, the Duke University School of Medicine Department of Community and Family Medicine, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the Health Resources & Services Administration (HRSA).
The two dimensions of US household patterns and the link between the Second Demographic Transition dimension and the outcomes of the Presidential elections from 1968 through 2016 , analysis by state and counties
Learn more about Diversity Explosion:
http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports2/2014/11/diversity-explosion
__________
At its optimistic best, America has embraced its identity as the world’s melting pot. Today it is on the cusp of becoming a country with no racial majority, and new minorities are poised to exert a profound impact on U.S. society, economy, and politics.
Through a compelling narrative and eye-catching charts and maps, eminent demographer William H. Frey interprets and expounds on the dramatic growth of minority populations in the United States. He finds that without these expanding groups, America could face a bleak future: this new generation of young minorities, who are having children at a faster rate than whites, is infusing our aging labor force with vitality and innovation.
Diversity Explosion shares the good news about diversity in the coming decades, and the more globalized, multiracial country that U.S. is becoming.
"The Haves and the Have Nots: A short and idiosyncratic history of global ine...Mavaddat Javid
Global Policy public lecture by Branko Milanović, lead economist in the World Bank's research department, a development specialist, he is a visiting professor at Johns Hopkins University.
David Card, Alex Mas and Jesse Rothstein's presentation for
the Penn IUR and Federal Reserve Conference, “Reinventing Older Communities: How Does Place Matter?”
MC_forecasts_finals series 17_feb2024.pdfARCResearch
Final summary slide deck for Series 17 population, employment by sector, age group forecasts for MPO region, counties, and smaller areas...February 2024
History Matters: Understanding The Role Of Policy, Race & Real Estate in Cuya...Theodore Eisenberg
Powerpoint accompanying a panel discussion on new research, commissioned by Cuyahoga PlaceMatters in partnership with The Kirwin Institute, that highlights the importance of historic real estate policies and their implications for Cuyahoga County's contemporary development issues, featuring Freddy L. Collier, Jr., Director of City Planning, City of Cleveland; Jason Reece, Director of Research, The Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity at The Ohio State University; and Brian D. Smedley, Ph.D., Co-Founder & Executive Director, National Collaborative for Health Equity. Rick Jackson of WCPN's Morning Edition moderated.
"Unpacking the 2010 Census: The New Realities of Race, Class, and Jurisdiction" is co-sponsored by Hope in the Cities and the Virginia Center for Inclusive Communities. The program examines the dramatically changing landscape of human need and what we must do collectively to address the plight of our neighbors and to build a just and inclusive community in metropolitan Richmond, Virginia. This presentation was conceived, researched and designed by Dr. John V. Moeser, Senior Fellow at the Bonner Center for Civic Engagement at the University of Richmond. Part 1 of the "Unpacking the 2010 Census" presentation focuses on the current data and demographics in metropolitan Richmond.
A Community Driven Effort to Level the Playing Field for Young Children and F...Practical Playbook
The Practical Playbook
National Meeting 2016
www.practicalplaybook.org
Bringing Public Health and Primary Care Together: The Practical Playbook National Meeting was at the Hyatt Regency in Bethesda, MD, May 22 - 24, 2016. The meeting was a milestone event towards advancing robust collaborations that improve population health. Key stakeholders from across sectors – representing professional associations, community organizations, government agencies and academic institutions – and across the country came together at the National Meeting to help catalyze a national movement, accelerate collaborations by fostering skill development, and connect with like-minded individuals and organizations to facilitate the exchange of ideas to drive population health improvement.
The National Meeting was also a significant source of tools and resources to advance collaboration. These tools and resources are available below and include:
Session presentations and materials
Poster session content
Photos from the National Meeting
The conversation started at the National Meeting is continuing in a LinkedIn Group "Working Together for Population Health" and Twitter. Use #PPBMeeting to provide feedback on the National Meeting.
The Practical Playbook was developed by the de Beaumont Foundation, the Duke University School of Medicine Department of Community and Family Medicine, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the Health Resources & Services Administration (HRSA).
The two dimensions of US household patterns and the link between the Second Demographic Transition dimension and the outcomes of the Presidential elections from 1968 through 2016 , analysis by state and counties
Population decline, ageing, effects longevity and sub-replacement fertility, reference stable population, population shrinking momentum, replacement migration, focus on Belgian situation.
Global patterns of premarital cohabitation 1970 -2015. Pattern of Disadvantage and Second Demographic Transition, Ethno-historical patterns, profiles by education. Effects of kinship structures including position of women, and of ethics revolution
(May 29th, 2024) Advancements in Intravital Microscopy- Insights for Preclini...Scintica Instrumentation
Intravital microscopy (IVM) is a powerful tool utilized to study cellular behavior over time and space in vivo. Much of our understanding of cell biology has been accomplished using various in vitro and ex vivo methods; however, these studies do not necessarily reflect the natural dynamics of biological processes. Unlike traditional cell culture or fixed tissue imaging, IVM allows for the ultra-fast high-resolution imaging of cellular processes over time and space and were studied in its natural environment. Real-time visualization of biological processes in the context of an intact organism helps maintain physiological relevance and provide insights into the progression of disease, response to treatments or developmental processes.
In this webinar we give an overview of advanced applications of the IVM system in preclinical research. IVIM technology is a provider of all-in-one intravital microscopy systems and solutions optimized for in vivo imaging of live animal models at sub-micron resolution. The system’s unique features and user-friendly software enables researchers to probe fast dynamic biological processes such as immune cell tracking, cell-cell interaction as well as vascularization and tumor metastasis with exceptional detail. This webinar will also give an overview of IVM being utilized in drug development, offering a view into the intricate interaction between drugs/nanoparticles and tissues in vivo and allows for the evaluation of therapeutic intervention in a variety of tissues and organs. This interdisciplinary collaboration continues to drive the advancements of novel therapeutic strategies.
Multi-source connectivity as the driver of solar wind variability in the heli...Sérgio Sacani
The ambient solar wind that flls the heliosphere originates from multiple
sources in the solar corona and is highly structured. It is often described
as high-speed, relatively homogeneous, plasma streams from coronal
holes and slow-speed, highly variable, streams whose source regions are
under debate. A key goal of ESA/NASA’s Solar Orbiter mission is to identify
solar wind sources and understand what drives the complexity seen in the
heliosphere. By combining magnetic feld modelling and spectroscopic
techniques with high-resolution observations and measurements, we show
that the solar wind variability detected in situ by Solar Orbiter in March
2022 is driven by spatio-temporal changes in the magnetic connectivity to
multiple sources in the solar atmosphere. The magnetic feld footpoints
connected to the spacecraft moved from the boundaries of a coronal hole
to one active region (12961) and then across to another region (12957). This
is refected in the in situ measurements, which show the transition from fast
to highly Alfvénic then to slow solar wind that is disrupted by the arrival of
a coronal mass ejection. Our results describe solar wind variability at 0.5 au
but are applicable to near-Earth observatories.
Slide 1: Title Slide
Extrachromosomal Inheritance
Slide 2: Introduction to Extrachromosomal Inheritance
Definition: Extrachromosomal inheritance refers to the transmission of genetic material that is not found within the nucleus.
Key Components: Involves genes located in mitochondria, chloroplasts, and plasmids.
Slide 3: Mitochondrial Inheritance
Mitochondria: Organelles responsible for energy production.
Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA): Circular DNA molecule found in mitochondria.
Inheritance Pattern: Maternally inherited, meaning it is passed from mothers to all their offspring.
Diseases: Examples include Leber’s hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON) and mitochondrial myopathy.
Slide 4: Chloroplast Inheritance
Chloroplasts: Organelles responsible for photosynthesis in plants.
Chloroplast DNA (cpDNA): Circular DNA molecule found in chloroplasts.
Inheritance Pattern: Often maternally inherited in most plants, but can vary in some species.
Examples: Variegation in plants, where leaf color patterns are determined by chloroplast DNA.
Slide 5: Plasmid Inheritance
Plasmids: Small, circular DNA molecules found in bacteria and some eukaryotes.
Features: Can carry antibiotic resistance genes and can be transferred between cells through processes like conjugation.
Significance: Important in biotechnology for gene cloning and genetic engineering.
Slide 6: Mechanisms of Extrachromosomal Inheritance
Non-Mendelian Patterns: Do not follow Mendel’s laws of inheritance.
Cytoplasmic Segregation: During cell division, organelles like mitochondria and chloroplasts are randomly distributed to daughter cells.
Heteroplasmy: Presence of more than one type of organellar genome within a cell, leading to variation in expression.
Slide 7: Examples of Extrachromosomal Inheritance
Four O’clock Plant (Mirabilis jalapa): Shows variegated leaves due to different cpDNA in leaf cells.
Petite Mutants in Yeast: Result from mutations in mitochondrial DNA affecting respiration.
Slide 8: Importance of Extrachromosomal Inheritance
Evolution: Provides insight into the evolution of eukaryotic cells.
Medicine: Understanding mitochondrial inheritance helps in diagnosing and treating mitochondrial diseases.
Agriculture: Chloroplast inheritance can be used in plant breeding and genetic modification.
Slide 9: Recent Research and Advances
Gene Editing: Techniques like CRISPR-Cas9 are being used to edit mitochondrial and chloroplast DNA.
Therapies: Development of mitochondrial replacement therapy (MRT) for preventing mitochondrial diseases.
Slide 10: Conclusion
Summary: Extrachromosomal inheritance involves the transmission of genetic material outside the nucleus and plays a crucial role in genetics, medicine, and biotechnology.
Future Directions: Continued research and technological advancements hold promise for new treatments and applications.
Slide 11: Questions and Discussion
Invite Audience: Open the floor for any questions or further discussion on the topic.
Comparing Evolved Extractive Text Summary Scores of Bidirectional Encoder Rep...University of Maribor
Slides from:
11th International Conference on Electrical, Electronics and Computer Engineering (IcETRAN), Niš, 3-6 June 2024
Track: Artificial Intelligence
https://www.etran.rs/2024/en/home-english/
Earliest Galaxies in the JADES Origins Field: Luminosity Function and Cosmic ...Sérgio Sacani
We characterize the earliest galaxy population in the JADES Origins Field (JOF), the deepest
imaging field observed with JWST. We make use of the ancillary Hubble optical images (5 filters
spanning 0.4−0.9µm) and novel JWST images with 14 filters spanning 0.8−5µm, including 7 mediumband filters, and reaching total exposure times of up to 46 hours per filter. We combine all our data
at > 2.3µm to construct an ultradeep image, reaching as deep as ≈ 31.4 AB mag in the stack and
30.3-31.0 AB mag (5σ, r = 0.1” circular aperture) in individual filters. We measure photometric
redshifts and use robust selection criteria to identify a sample of eight galaxy candidates at redshifts
z = 11.5 − 15. These objects show compact half-light radii of R1/2 ∼ 50 − 200pc, stellar masses of
M⋆ ∼ 107−108M⊙, and star-formation rates of SFR ∼ 0.1−1 M⊙ yr−1
. Our search finds no candidates
at 15 < z < 20, placing upper limits at these redshifts. We develop a forward modeling approach to
infer the properties of the evolving luminosity function without binning in redshift or luminosity that
marginalizes over the photometric redshift uncertainty of our candidate galaxies and incorporates the
impact of non-detections. We find a z = 12 luminosity function in good agreement with prior results,
and that the luminosity function normalization and UV luminosity density decline by a factor of ∼ 2.5
from z = 12 to z = 14. We discuss the possible implications of our results in the context of theoretical
models for evolution of the dark matter halo mass function.
Nutraceutical market, scope and growth: Herbal drug technologyLokesh Patil
As consumer awareness of health and wellness rises, the nutraceutical market—which includes goods like functional meals, drinks, and dietary supplements that provide health advantages beyond basic nutrition—is growing significantly. As healthcare expenses rise, the population ages, and people want natural and preventative health solutions more and more, this industry is increasing quickly. Further driving market expansion are product formulation innovations and the use of cutting-edge technology for customized nutrition. With its worldwide reach, the nutraceutical industry is expected to keep growing and provide significant chances for research and investment in a number of categories, including vitamins, minerals, probiotics, and herbal supplements.
Richard's entangled aventures in wonderlandRichard Gill
Since the loophole-free Bell experiments of 2020 and the Nobel prizes in physics of 2022, critics of Bell's work have retreated to the fortress of super-determinism. Now, super-determinism is a derogatory word - it just means "determinism". Palmer, Hance and Hossenfelder argue that quantum mechanics and determinism are not incompatible, using a sophisticated mathematical construction based on a subtle thinning of allowed states and measurements in quantum mechanics, such that what is left appears to make Bell's argument fail, without altering the empirical predictions of quantum mechanics. I think however that it is a smoke screen, and the slogan "lost in math" comes to my mind. I will discuss some other recent disproofs of Bell's theorem using the language of causality based on causal graphs. Causal thinking is also central to law and justice. I will mention surprising connections to my work on serial killer nurse cases, in particular the Dutch case of Lucia de Berk and the current UK case of Lucy Letby.
Richard's aventures in two entangled wonderlandsRichard Gill
Since the loophole-free Bell experiments of 2020 and the Nobel prizes in physics of 2022, critics of Bell's work have retreated to the fortress of super-determinism. Now, super-determinism is a derogatory word - it just means "determinism". Palmer, Hance and Hossenfelder argue that quantum mechanics and determinism are not incompatible, using a sophisticated mathematical construction based on a subtle thinning of allowed states and measurements in quantum mechanics, such that what is left appears to make Bell's argument fail, without altering the empirical predictions of quantum mechanics. I think however that it is a smoke screen, and the slogan "lost in math" comes to my mind. I will discuss some other recent disproofs of Bell's theorem using the language of causality based on causal graphs. Causal thinking is also central to law and justice. I will mention surprising connections to my work on serial killer nurse cases, in particular the Dutch case of Lucia de Berk and the current UK case of Lucy Letby.
What is greenhouse gasses and how many gasses are there to affect the Earth.moosaasad1975
What are greenhouse gasses how they affect the earth and its environment what is the future of the environment and earth how the weather and the climate effects.
Unveiling the Energy Potential of Marshmallow Deposits.pdf
Ready willing_and_able paradigm as precondition behavioural change
1. Ready, Willing and Able :
The preconditions of demographic
innovation
Ron Lesthaeghe
Population Studies Center and Sociology Dept.
University of Michigan
2. RWA origins: Princeton European
Fertility Transition
Findings : Fertility control emerged in wide
variety of circumstances, and leads and lags
were not predictable by classic factors of
structural modernization ( Urbanization,
industrialization, mortality decline …)
A. J. Coale (1973) fell back on three
conditions ….
3. R and W and A
Ready = new behavior must be advantageous
(conscious cost/benefit calculus)
Willing = new behavior must be ethically
acceptable (religious and moral legitimacy)
Able = there must be technical means for its
realization ( material, legal, organizational, often at
macro level)
4. COALE’S PRECONDITIONS FOR DEMOGRAPHIC
INNOVATION
READY = ECONOMICALLYADVANTAGEOUS
WILLING = CULTURALLY ACCEPTABLE
ABLE = MEANS AVAILABLE
S = R and W and A
The slowest moving condition can become a bottleneck.
5. From 3 conditions to a dynamic model
(Lesthaeghe-Vanderhoeft 2001 conceptualization)
Shifting/overtaking distributions of resp.
R,W and A in a population over time
The distribution of “minima” is what
matters.
No longer an opposition between the
economics and the sociology of behavior.
RWA can lead to Verhulst’s logistic growth
curve
7. Si = Min. (Ri,Wi, Ai)
Example 1: the upper tails of
the three distributions are
already in the zones with
values greater than 0.5, yet
nobody will adopt the new
form of behavior
Example 2 : For 85%,
”ability” is no longer the
problem, and 50% is
convinced of the advantages
of the new form. Yet, less
than a quarter will adopt it.
Reason : slow adaptation of
“willingness” is producing a
bottleneck.
8. The RWA view of African fertility
transitions
Question : Where is the bottleneck
condition for the adoption of fertility control
in various African societies ? Can the RWA
conceptualization help in “reading” the
survey results ?
9.
10.
11.
12. From a first to a
second demographic
transition in Europe :
remarkable spatial
continuities in
Belgium and France .
WHY ???
René Magritte (1895-1967) : “La Condition Humaine”, 1935,
Simon Spierer Collection, Geneva.
13. 5025
km
0
= German territory
= Brussels bilingual Capital Region
= language border (Dutch-French)
5025
km
0
= German territory
= Brussels bilingual Capital Region
= language border (Dutch-French)
= language border (Dutch-French)
= Brussels bilingual Capital Region
0
km
25 50
= language border (Dutch-French)
= Brussels bilingual Capital Region
0
km
25 50
70 %
55 - 69 %
40 - 54 %
< 40 %
Nation. level: 55 %
(a) Speed of the marital fertility transition (b) Secularization (1919)
70 %
55 - 69 %
40 - 54 %
< 40 %
Nation. level: 51 %
0.52 - 0.63
0.40 - 0.51
0.26 - 0.39
0.15 - 0.25
8.5 - 12.0 %
7.1 - 8.4 %
4.5 - 7.0 %
2.9 - 4.4 %
Nation. level: 0.39 Nation. level: 7.0 %
(c) Births out of wedlock (1992) (d) Unmarried cohabitation (1991
14.
CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS BELGIAN ARRONDISSEMENTS
DEMOGRAPHIC
INDICATORS OF
‘MODERNITY’
DURING FDT AND
SDT
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
AND CULTURAL
INDICATORS
R = .98
SPEED MARITAL FERTILITY
DECLINE 1880-1910 : r=+.95
LEVEL MARITAL FERTILITY
1900 : -.93
NON-MARITAL FERTILITY
1992 : +.92
DIVORCE RATE 1967-70 : +.91
COHABITING WOMEN 25-29,
1991 : +.86
COHABITING WOMEN 20-24 :
+.78
EARLIER MARRIAGE 1880 :
+.70
VOTE FOR SECULAR PARTIES,
1919 : +.95
VOTE FOR SECULAR PARTIES,
1958 : +.90
SUNDAY MASS ABSENTEISM,
1964 : +.83
PCT MALES IN AGRICULTURE
AND COTTAGE INDUSTRIES,
1910 : -.82
MARRIAGES DURING LENT &
ADVENT, 1881-85 : +.79
IDEM, 1860-65 : +.69
IDEM, 1841-47 : +.47
NOTE : ILLEGITIMATE FERTILITY 1900 LOADED ON SECOND CANONICAL
VARIATE, WITH URBANITY 1900 AND 1970, AND WITH ADULT ILLITERACY
1900.
15. 0 km 200 0 km 200
0 km 200 0 km 200
(a) Religious opposition to 1791 Constitution (prêtres réfractaires) (b) Sunday Mass attendance 1960-70 in rural parts of
départements (pop. 18+)
(c) Level of marital fertility, 1831 (Coale’s index Ig) (d) Index of proportions married, 1831 (Coale’s index Im)
75 %
55 - 75 %
35 - 55 %
< 35 %
no data
Perc. prêtres réfractaires
42 %
28 - 42 %
15 - 28 %
< 15 %
no data
Percentage attending
0.6
0.5 - 0.6
0.4 - 0.5
< 0.4
no data
Ig
< 0.4
0.4 - 0.5
0.5 - 0.6
0.6
no data
Im
16. 0 km 200
(a) Sunday Mass attendance 1960-70 in rural parts of
départements (pop. 18+)
42 %
28 - 42 %
15 - 28 %
< 15 %
no data
Percentage attending
km 2000
13.8 - 29.5
29.5 - 36.2
36.2 - 45.2
45.2 - 79.4
per 1000 married women
(b) Divorce rate (1975)
km 2000km 2000
13.8 - 29.5
29.5 - 36.2
36.2 - 45.2
45.2 - 79.4
per 1000 married women
(c) Divorce rate (1990)
20.7 - 28.2
28.2 - 31.2
31.2 - 33.7
33.7 - 37.3
percent
(d) Births out of wedlock (1989-91)
17. DEMOGRAPHIC
INDICATORS OF
‘MODERNITY’
IN FDT AND SDT
SOCIO-
ECONOMIC AND
CULTURAL
INDICATORS
R=.92
EARLIER MARRIAGE 1851 :
r=+.80
EARLIER MARRIAGE 1831 :
+.79
NON-MARITAL BIRTHS 1989-
91 : +.75
DIVORCE RATE 1990 : +.69
LEVEL MARITAL
FERTILITY 1876 : -.68
LEVEL MARITAL
FERTILITY 1831: -.66
ILLEGITIMATE FERTILITY
1831 : +.61
COUSIN MARRIAGE /
ENDOGAMY 1911 : -.45
DIVORCE RATE 1975 : +.43
SUNDAY MASS ATTENDANCE
1960 : -.93
ORDINATIONS PRIESTS 1876 :
-.72
PRIESTS ARMY RECRUITS
1825 : -.65
NOT WRITING FRENCH 1872 :
-.62
LANDLESS AGRIC. LABOUR
1851 : +.62
‘PRETRES REFRACTAIRES’
1791 : -.59
VACANT VICARAGES 1885 :
+.58
INEGALITARIAN
INHERITANCE 1900 : -.45
CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS FRENCH DEPARTEMENTS
18. How can such strong geographical continuity from FDT
to SDT be accounted for ?
1. Same bottleneck condition produces similar maps.
In both transitions the “willingness”-factor ( = cultural
acceptability, legitimation) seems to have been the slowest
moving distribution. As a result, the demographic maps
continue to be shaped by the “cultural” evolution.
2. Regional subcultures surviving on the basis of stable
networks. Despite the passage of time and years of
migration, regional subcultures must have survived, and
must have maintained their relative position with respect to
the “willingness” factor.
19. RWA and regression techniques …
Covariates with strong predictive power in
regression analyses with cross-sectional
data only point out which condition is the
slowest moving one. The conclusion that
the proces is driven by economic resp.
cultural factors because the best performing
covariates are of an economic resp. cultural
nature is erroneous.
21. Very Late Fertility in US and Western EU 2002
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
age groups
ASFRs
MAw02
CTw02
NJw02
NL02
F01
ARw02
USw02
NL
NJ
CT
MA
F
U
S
US
AR
22. 2 basic demographic dimensions
Dimension 1 = high abortion rates, higher frequencies
cohabitation hhlds and same sex cohabitants,
postponement in fertility schedule Non-hisp. White
population, sustained sub-replacement fertility, low
teenage fertility (white and non-white) = typical “Second
demographic transition” features.
Dimension 2 = high teenage fertility ( black + white), high
non-marital fertility, high divorce (already since the 60s),
grandparents hhlds resp for grandchildren = older pattern
typical for US ( not W. EU )
23. USA 50 states : Demographic dimension 1:
indicators and best correlates
Demogr. Dimension 1 indicators (factor
loadings)
Abortions p 1000 L Births 80 +.92
Abortions p 1000 L Births 92 +.91
Abort. rate p 1000 w 15-44 96 +.86
% hhlds same sex adults 00 +.80
NHWhites** :TFR 02 -.72
% hhlds ‘families’ * -.64
NHWhites: Fertility postponm.02 +.64
% hhlds Cohabitation 00 +.56
NHWhites: Fert rate 15-19 02 -.54
= “second demographic transition” dimension
*families = married couples, married couples + children, parent
+ children
** NHW = Non-hispanic whites
Best correlates of demographic
dimension 1 (corr. coeff.)
% vote Bush -.84
% pop Metropolitan 00 +.64
% pop Metropolitan 62 +.62
Disp. Pers. Income level 01 +.60
% pop. Catholic 02 +.50
% pop 25+ with BA 90 +.50
% pop Evangelical * 02 -.56
% workers unionized +.47
Disp. Pers. Income 80 +.45
* Plus estimate of Mormons in Utah
24. USA 50 states : demographic dimension 2
Indicators and best correlates
Demographic dimension 2: best
indicators (factor loadings)
% Births to teenagers 00 +.87
Median age at first birth 02 -.80
% Births to unmarried w. 00 +.77
NHWhites: teenage fert. rate 02 +.74
Divorce per 1000 pop. 90 +.71
% Births to unmarried w 90 +.69
Divorce per 1000 pop 62 +.61
NHWhites: fert. Postpnmt* 02 -.57
* Ratio of : Sum ASFRs 30+ / Sum ASFRs 20-29
Demographic dimension 2 : best correlates
(corr. coeff.)
% pop 30+ liv+respons.grandch. +.84
% pop. in Poverty 98-00 +.68
% pop 25+ Hi School grads 90 -.63
% vote Nixon (McGovern) 72 +.57
% vote Goldwater (Johnson) 64 +.57
% Evangelical 2000 * +.56
Disp. Pers. Income 01 -.55
% pop 25+ with BA 90 -.55
% pop Black 00 +.52
% pop NHWhite 90 -.49
* Plus estimate Mormon pop Utah
25. US 50 States : prediction demographic dimension 1 (“SDT”) on the basis of:
Pct vote Bush 2004 ( beta coeff.=-.53)
Pct pop. Metropolitan 2000 (+.26)
Pct pop. Non-hisp. White 2000 (-.22)
Pct pop. Evangelical (-.20)
R sq adj.= 0.79 (R=0.90)
26. US 50 States : Prediction of Demographic Dimension 2 (teenage fert, non-marital fert and
divorce) on the basis of:
Pop 25+ with BA 1990 (beta coeff = -.44)
Pct pop Afro-American 2000 (+.42)
Pct pop Hispanic 2000 (+.34)
Pct pop in Poverty 1996-00 (+.27)
R sq adj = .70 (R=.85)
27. US 50 States : prediction demographic dimension 1 (“SDT”) on the basis of:
Pct vote Bush 2004 ( beta coeff.=-.53)
Pct pop. Metropolitan 2000 (+.26)
Pct pop. Non-hisp. White 2000 (-.22)
Pct pop. Evangelical (-.20)
R sq adj.= 0.79 (R=0.90)
28. US States : Predicting % vote Bush 2004 on the basis of :
* NH Whites Total Fertility Rate 2000 (beta coeff = +.61)
* 1996 Abortion Rate per 1000 women 15-44 (-.39)
R sq adj = .71 (R=.85)
32. USA : demographic dimension 1 ( SDT characteristics of cohabitation and non-family
households, fertility postponement and sub-replacement fertility, higher abortion rates and
low white teenage fertility )
Yellow = LOW -- Blue = HIGH
33. Demographic Dimension 2 : High teenage and non-marital fertility, high divorce rate, early
fertility pattern.
yellow = low ; blue = high
34. US 50 States : Prediction of Demographic Dimension 2 (teenage fert, non-marital fert and
divorce) on the basis of:
Pop 25+ with BA 1990 (beta coeff = -.44)
Pct pop Afro-American 2000 (+.42)
Pct pop Hispanic 2000 (+.34)
Pct pop in Poverty 1996-00 (+.27)
R sq adj = .70 (R=.85)
35. USA 50 states : Plot of States on 2 Demographic Dimensions
Dim. 1:
High on:
Abortion rates
Cohabitation
Same sex
cohabitation
Fert. Postpnmt NHW
Low on :
NHW Tot Fert Rate
NHW teenage fert.
Classic family hhlds
Dim. 2 – high on:
Teenage fertility (all)
Births to unmarried
women
Divorce