An analysis of how the gender wage gap evolved over time. We separate the effects of cohort and age and demonstrate that the gender wage gap increases as women age. This increases are non-monotonic and depend on women's earnings.
We explore the changes in the gender wage gap as women age. For this, we build on the DiNardo, Fortin and Lemieux decomposition to separate age and cohort effects. Our results suggest that the differences in wages increase during the life-cycle, possibly in a non-monotonic fashion. In turn, our results imply that policies addressing this issue should also consider age effects.
We presented in Ireland our joint work on age penalty in women's wages. Buildingon the DiNardo Fortin and Lemieux decomposition, we separate age-cohort-year effects. The results show that the gender wage gap increases with age, possibly in a non-monotonic fashion.
The Second Demographic Transition: Trends and Expectations for the new CenturyFundación Ramón Areces
Ciclo: "Envejecimiento y bienestar”. En colaboración con el Grupo de Estudios Población y Sociedad (GEPS)
Ron Lesthaeghe
Profesor Emérito. Universidad Libre de Bruselas.
Madrid, 5 de mayo de 2011
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large New Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economies, we use this model to provide comparative statics across past and contemporaneous age structures of the working population. Thus, we quantify the extent to which the response of labor markets to adverse TFP shocks and monetary policy shocks becomes muted with the aging of the working population. Our findings have important policy implications for European labor markets and beyond. For example, the working population is expected to further age in Europe, whereas the share of young workers will remain robust in the US. Our results suggest a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle. Furthermore, with the aging population, lowering inflation volatility is less costly in terms of higher unemployment volatility. It suggests that optimal monetary policy should be more hawkish in the older society.
An analysis of how the gender wage gap evolved over time. We separate the effects of cohort and age and demonstrate that the gender wage gap increases as women age. This increases are non-monotonic and depend on women's earnings.
We explore the changes in the gender wage gap as women age. For this, we build on the DiNardo, Fortin and Lemieux decomposition to separate age and cohort effects. Our results suggest that the differences in wages increase during the life-cycle, possibly in a non-monotonic fashion. In turn, our results imply that policies addressing this issue should also consider age effects.
We presented in Ireland our joint work on age penalty in women's wages. Buildingon the DiNardo Fortin and Lemieux decomposition, we separate age-cohort-year effects. The results show that the gender wage gap increases with age, possibly in a non-monotonic fashion.
The Second Demographic Transition: Trends and Expectations for the new CenturyFundación Ramón Areces
Ciclo: "Envejecimiento y bienestar”. En colaboración con el Grupo de Estudios Población y Sociedad (GEPS)
Ron Lesthaeghe
Profesor Emérito. Universidad Libre de Bruselas.
Madrid, 5 de mayo de 2011
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large New Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economies, we use this model to provide comparative statics across past and contemporaneous age structures of the working population. Thus, we quantify the extent to which the response of labor markets to adverse TFP shocks and monetary policy shocks becomes muted with the aging of the working population. Our findings have important policy implications for European labor markets and beyond. For example, the working population is expected to further age in Europe, whereas the share of young workers will remain robust in the US. Our results suggest a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle. Furthermore, with the aging population, lowering inflation volatility is less costly in terms of higher unemployment volatility. It suggests that optimal monetary policy should be more hawkish in the older society.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
Prezentācija: Dzīves līmenis Latvijā. Vai var/vajag noķert Igauniju?Latvijas Banka
Prezentācija Dzīves līmenis Latvijā. Vai var/vajag noķert Igauniju? (The Standard of Living in Latvia: can we/should we try to catch Estonia?) izmantota lekcijā Latvijas Universitātē 2017. gada 6. martā.
Pirms aptuveni 25 gadiem Baltijas valstis uzsāka pāreju uz tirgus ekonomiku. Ir populārs uzskats, ka vienlaicīgi un no vienlīdzīgas pozīcijas. Bet vai tiešām no vienlīdzīgas? Kā salīdzināt dzīves līmeni un kā izskaidrot tā atšķirības, un ko varētu darīt šo atšķirību mazināšanai?
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the considerable extent to which demographic changes over the last 30 years contribute to the decline of unemployment rate. Our findings have important policy implications given the expected aging of the working population in Europe. Furthermore, lowering inflation volatility is less costly in terms of higher unemployment volatility. It suggests that optimal monetary policy is more hawkish in the older society. Our results hint also at a partial reversal of the European-US
unemployment puzzle due to the fact that in the US the share of young workers is expected to remain robust.
Can we really explain worker flows in transition?GRAPE
Labor reallocation in transition economies has been described using relatively simple models, where workers migrate from the less productive public sector to the private sector. While this might be true, it is only a part of the stories. Other changes happened at the same time as well, in particular a global shift towards services and a generational change. Our presentation explores the relative importance of those changes.
Vieslekcija: Globālās ekonomikas tendencesLatvijas Banka
Latvijas Bankas Starptautisko attiecību un komunikācijas pārvaldes galvenā ekonomiste Ieva Skrīvere 16. martā viesojās Rīgas Ekonomikas augstskolā ar lekciju "Globālās ekonomikas tendences".
Lekcijā tiek analizētas norises pasaules tautsaimniecībā un starptautiskajā tirdzniecībā, tiek sniegtas attīstības prognozes un minēti galvenie izaicinājumi un riski. Prezentācija sniedz visaptverošu priekšstatu par svarīgākajām ekonomikas un politikas norisēm trīs galvenajos pasaules ekonomiskajos centros – Eiropā, ASV un Ķīnā, kā arī ieteikumus, ko darīt Latvijas politikas veidotājiem.
Productivity and GDP per capita growth: A long-term perspective, Bergeaud, Ce...Soledad Zignago
Gilbert Cette's slides at the Secular Stagnation and Growth Measurement Conference, Banque de France, January 16, 2017, with Antonin Bergeaud & Remy Lecat https://www.banque-france.fr/stagnation-seculaire-et-mesure-de-la-croissance-conference-organisee-par-la-banque-de-france-et-le
"The Haves and the Have Nots: A short and idiosyncratic history of global ine...Mavaddat Javid
Global Policy public lecture by Branko Milanović, lead economist in the World Bank's research department, a development specialist, he is a visiting professor at Johns Hopkins University.
Ageing and productivity growth in OECD regions - Federica Daniele, Taku Honid...OECD CFE
Presentation of Federica Daniele, Junior Economist/Policy Analyst, OECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities at the fourth meeting of the Spatial productivity Lab of the OECD Trento Centre held on 17 April 2019.
More info http://oe.cd/SPL
Lekcijā tiek analizētas norises pasaules tautsaimniecībā un starptautiskajā tirdzniecībā, tiek sniegtas attīstības prognozes un minēti galvenie izaicinājumi un riski. Prezentācija sniedz visaptverošu priekšstatu par svarīgākajām ekonomikas un politikas norisēm trīs galvenajos pasaules ekonomiskajos centros – Eiropā, ASV un Ķīnā, kā arī ieteikumus, ko darīt Latvijas politikas veidotājiem.
Macroeconomics: Recessions, fiscal policy, and healthsophieproject
"Macroeconomics: Recessions, fiscal policy and health", by Marc Suhrcke and Veronica Toffolutti, in the framework of the final conference of the European research project SOPHIE. 29th September 2015, Brussels.
The European Quality of Government Index - Victor LapuenteOECD CFE
Presentation by Victor Lapuente, Senior Lecturer and Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and Research Fellow, Quality of Government Institute, University of Gothenburg, Sweden at the 16th Spatial Productivity Lab meeting on "Regional institutions and productivity: Implications for policy" held on 10 March 2022 in virtual format.
More information: https://oe.cd/spl-mtg
The two dimensions of US household patterns and the link between the Second Demographic Transition dimension and the outcomes of the Presidential elections from 1968 through 2016 , analysis by state and counties
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
Prezentācija: Dzīves līmenis Latvijā. Vai var/vajag noķert Igauniju?Latvijas Banka
Prezentācija Dzīves līmenis Latvijā. Vai var/vajag noķert Igauniju? (The Standard of Living in Latvia: can we/should we try to catch Estonia?) izmantota lekcijā Latvijas Universitātē 2017. gada 6. martā.
Pirms aptuveni 25 gadiem Baltijas valstis uzsāka pāreju uz tirgus ekonomiku. Ir populārs uzskats, ka vienlaicīgi un no vienlīdzīgas pozīcijas. Bet vai tiešām no vienlīdzīgas? Kā salīdzināt dzīves līmeni un kā izskaidrot tā atšķirības, un ko varētu darīt šo atšķirību mazināšanai?
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the considerable extent to which demographic changes over the last 30 years contribute to the decline of unemployment rate. Our findings have important policy implications given the expected aging of the working population in Europe. Furthermore, lowering inflation volatility is less costly in terms of higher unemployment volatility. It suggests that optimal monetary policy is more hawkish in the older society. Our results hint also at a partial reversal of the European-US
unemployment puzzle due to the fact that in the US the share of young workers is expected to remain robust.
Can we really explain worker flows in transition?GRAPE
Labor reallocation in transition economies has been described using relatively simple models, where workers migrate from the less productive public sector to the private sector. While this might be true, it is only a part of the stories. Other changes happened at the same time as well, in particular a global shift towards services and a generational change. Our presentation explores the relative importance of those changes.
Vieslekcija: Globālās ekonomikas tendencesLatvijas Banka
Latvijas Bankas Starptautisko attiecību un komunikācijas pārvaldes galvenā ekonomiste Ieva Skrīvere 16. martā viesojās Rīgas Ekonomikas augstskolā ar lekciju "Globālās ekonomikas tendences".
Lekcijā tiek analizētas norises pasaules tautsaimniecībā un starptautiskajā tirdzniecībā, tiek sniegtas attīstības prognozes un minēti galvenie izaicinājumi un riski. Prezentācija sniedz visaptverošu priekšstatu par svarīgākajām ekonomikas un politikas norisēm trīs galvenajos pasaules ekonomiskajos centros – Eiropā, ASV un Ķīnā, kā arī ieteikumus, ko darīt Latvijas politikas veidotājiem.
Productivity and GDP per capita growth: A long-term perspective, Bergeaud, Ce...Soledad Zignago
Gilbert Cette's slides at the Secular Stagnation and Growth Measurement Conference, Banque de France, January 16, 2017, with Antonin Bergeaud & Remy Lecat https://www.banque-france.fr/stagnation-seculaire-et-mesure-de-la-croissance-conference-organisee-par-la-banque-de-france-et-le
"The Haves and the Have Nots: A short and idiosyncratic history of global ine...Mavaddat Javid
Global Policy public lecture by Branko Milanović, lead economist in the World Bank's research department, a development specialist, he is a visiting professor at Johns Hopkins University.
Ageing and productivity growth in OECD regions - Federica Daniele, Taku Honid...OECD CFE
Presentation of Federica Daniele, Junior Economist/Policy Analyst, OECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities at the fourth meeting of the Spatial productivity Lab of the OECD Trento Centre held on 17 April 2019.
More info http://oe.cd/SPL
Lekcijā tiek analizētas norises pasaules tautsaimniecībā un starptautiskajā tirdzniecībā, tiek sniegtas attīstības prognozes un minēti galvenie izaicinājumi un riski. Prezentācija sniedz visaptverošu priekšstatu par svarīgākajām ekonomikas un politikas norisēm trīs galvenajos pasaules ekonomiskajos centros – Eiropā, ASV un Ķīnā, kā arī ieteikumus, ko darīt Latvijas politikas veidotājiem.
Macroeconomics: Recessions, fiscal policy, and healthsophieproject
"Macroeconomics: Recessions, fiscal policy and health", by Marc Suhrcke and Veronica Toffolutti, in the framework of the final conference of the European research project SOPHIE. 29th September 2015, Brussels.
The European Quality of Government Index - Victor LapuenteOECD CFE
Presentation by Victor Lapuente, Senior Lecturer and Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and Research Fellow, Quality of Government Institute, University of Gothenburg, Sweden at the 16th Spatial Productivity Lab meeting on "Regional institutions and productivity: Implications for policy" held on 10 March 2022 in virtual format.
More information: https://oe.cd/spl-mtg
The two dimensions of US household patterns and the link between the Second Demographic Transition dimension and the outcomes of the Presidential elections from 1968 through 2016 , analysis by state and counties
Population decline, ageing, effects longevity and sub-replacement fertility, reference stable population, population shrinking momentum, replacement migration, focus on Belgian situation.
Lesthaeghe spatial continuities in demographic transitions & the rwa modelRon Lesthaeghe
Spatial continuity of first and second demographic transitions in France, Belgium and Switzerland. Demographic and social indicators for départements, arrondissements and kantons
Global patterns of premarital cohabitation 1970 -2015. Pattern of Disadvantage and Second Demographic Transition, Ethno-historical patterns, profiles by education. Effects of kinship structures including position of women, and of ethics revolution
Feb2007 rwa belgium and usa (all maps are here)Ron Lesthaeghe
Preconditions for behavioural change, "Ready, Willing and Able" paradigm and model, application to the second demographic transition, two examples: Belgium and USA
A brief information about the SCOP protein database used in bioinformatics.
The Structural Classification of Proteins (SCOP) database is a comprehensive and authoritative resource for the structural and evolutionary relationships of proteins. It provides a detailed and curated classification of protein structures, grouping them into families, superfamilies, and folds based on their structural and sequence similarities.
THE IMPORTANCE OF MARTIAN ATMOSPHERE SAMPLE RETURN.Sérgio Sacani
The return of a sample of near-surface atmosphere from Mars would facilitate answers to several first-order science questions surrounding the formation and evolution of the planet. One of the important aspects of terrestrial planet formation in general is the role that primary atmospheres played in influencing the chemistry and structure of the planets and their antecedents. Studies of the martian atmosphere can be used to investigate the role of a primary atmosphere in its history. Atmosphere samples would also inform our understanding of the near-surface chemistry of the planet, and ultimately the prospects for life. High-precision isotopic analyses of constituent gases are needed to address these questions, requiring that the analyses are made on returned samples rather than in situ.
Cancer cell metabolism: special Reference to Lactate PathwayAADYARAJPANDEY1
Normal Cell Metabolism:
Cellular respiration describes the series of steps that cells use to break down sugar and other chemicals to get the energy we need to function.
Energy is stored in the bonds of glucose and when glucose is broken down, much of that energy is released.
Cell utilize energy in the form of ATP.
The first step of respiration is called glycolysis. In a series of steps, glycolysis breaks glucose into two smaller molecules - a chemical called pyruvate. A small amount of ATP is formed during this process.
Most healthy cells continue the breakdown in a second process, called the Kreb's cycle. The Kreb's cycle allows cells to “burn” the pyruvates made in glycolysis to get more ATP.
The last step in the breakdown of glucose is called oxidative phosphorylation (Ox-Phos).
It takes place in specialized cell structures called mitochondria. This process produces a large amount of ATP. Importantly, cells need oxygen to complete oxidative phosphorylation.
If a cell completes only glycolysis, only 2 molecules of ATP are made per glucose. However, if the cell completes the entire respiration process (glycolysis - Kreb's - oxidative phosphorylation), about 36 molecules of ATP are created, giving it much more energy to use.
IN CANCER CELL:
Unlike healthy cells that "burn" the entire molecule of sugar to capture a large amount of energy as ATP, cancer cells are wasteful.
Cancer cells only partially break down sugar molecules. They overuse the first step of respiration, glycolysis. They frequently do not complete the second step, oxidative phosphorylation.
This results in only 2 molecules of ATP per each glucose molecule instead of the 36 or so ATPs healthy cells gain. As a result, cancer cells need to use a lot more sugar molecules to get enough energy to survive.
Unlike healthy cells that "burn" the entire molecule of sugar to capture a large amount of energy as ATP, cancer cells are wasteful.
Cancer cells only partially break down sugar molecules. They overuse the first step of respiration, glycolysis. They frequently do not complete the second step, oxidative phosphorylation.
This results in only 2 molecules of ATP per each glucose molecule instead of the 36 or so ATPs healthy cells gain. As a result, cancer cells need to use a lot more sugar molecules to get enough energy to survive.
introduction to WARBERG PHENOMENA:
WARBURG EFFECT Usually, cancer cells are highly glycolytic (glucose addiction) and take up more glucose than do normal cells from outside.
Otto Heinrich Warburg (; 8 October 1883 – 1 August 1970) In 1931 was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology for his "discovery of the nature and mode of action of the respiratory enzyme.
WARNBURG EFFECT : cancer cells under aerobic (well-oxygenated) conditions to metabolize glucose to lactate (aerobic glycolysis) is known as the Warburg effect. Warburg made the observation that tumor slices consume glucose and secrete lactate at a higher rate than normal tissues.
Introduction:
RNA interference (RNAi) or Post-Transcriptional Gene Silencing (PTGS) is an important biological process for modulating eukaryotic gene expression.
It is highly conserved process of posttranscriptional gene silencing by which double stranded RNA (dsRNA) causes sequence-specific degradation of mRNA sequences.
dsRNA-induced gene silencing (RNAi) is reported in a wide range of eukaryotes ranging from worms, insects, mammals and plants.
This process mediates resistance to both endogenous parasitic and exogenous pathogenic nucleic acids, and regulates the expression of protein-coding genes.
What are small ncRNAs?
micro RNA (miRNA)
short interfering RNA (siRNA)
Properties of small non-coding RNA:
Involved in silencing mRNA transcripts.
Called “small” because they are usually only about 21-24 nucleotides long.
Synthesized by first cutting up longer precursor sequences (like the 61nt one that Lee discovered).
Silence an mRNA by base pairing with some sequence on the mRNA.
Discovery of siRNA?
The first small RNA:
In 1993 Rosalind Lee (Victor Ambros lab) was studying a non- coding gene in C. elegans, lin-4, that was involved in silencing of another gene, lin-14, at the appropriate time in the
development of the worm C. elegans.
Two small transcripts of lin-4 (22nt and 61nt) were found to be complementary to a sequence in the 3' UTR of lin-14.
Because lin-4 encoded no protein, she deduced that it must be these transcripts that are causing the silencing by RNA-RNA interactions.
Types of RNAi ( non coding RNA)
MiRNA
Length (23-25 nt)
Trans acting
Binds with target MRNA in mismatch
Translation inhibition
Si RNA
Length 21 nt.
Cis acting
Bind with target Mrna in perfect complementary sequence
Piwi-RNA
Length ; 25 to 36 nt.
Expressed in Germ Cells
Regulates trnasposomes activity
MECHANISM OF RNAI:
First the double-stranded RNA teams up with a protein complex named Dicer, which cuts the long RNA into short pieces.
Then another protein complex called RISC (RNA-induced silencing complex) discards one of the two RNA strands.
The RISC-docked, single-stranded RNA then pairs with the homologous mRNA and destroys it.
THE RISC COMPLEX:
RISC is large(>500kD) RNA multi- protein Binding complex which triggers MRNA degradation in response to MRNA
Unwinding of double stranded Si RNA by ATP independent Helicase
Active component of RISC is Ago proteins( ENDONUCLEASE) which cleave target MRNA.
DICER: endonuclease (RNase Family III)
Argonaute: Central Component of the RNA-Induced Silencing Complex (RISC)
One strand of the dsRNA produced by Dicer is retained in the RISC complex in association with Argonaute
ARGONAUTE PROTEIN :
1.PAZ(PIWI/Argonaute/ Zwille)- Recognition of target MRNA
2.PIWI (p-element induced wimpy Testis)- breaks Phosphodiester bond of mRNA.)RNAse H activity.
MiRNA:
The Double-stranded RNAs are naturally produced in eukaryotic cells during development, and they have a key role in regulating gene expression .
Richard's aventures in two entangled wonderlandsRichard Gill
Since the loophole-free Bell experiments of 2020 and the Nobel prizes in physics of 2022, critics of Bell's work have retreated to the fortress of super-determinism. Now, super-determinism is a derogatory word - it just means "determinism". Palmer, Hance and Hossenfelder argue that quantum mechanics and determinism are not incompatible, using a sophisticated mathematical construction based on a subtle thinning of allowed states and measurements in quantum mechanics, such that what is left appears to make Bell's argument fail, without altering the empirical predictions of quantum mechanics. I think however that it is a smoke screen, and the slogan "lost in math" comes to my mind. I will discuss some other recent disproofs of Bell's theorem using the language of causality based on causal graphs. Causal thinking is also central to law and justice. I will mention surprising connections to my work on serial killer nurse cases, in particular the Dutch case of Lucia de Berk and the current UK case of Lucy Letby.
Comparing Evolved Extractive Text Summary Scores of Bidirectional Encoder Rep...University of Maribor
Slides from:
11th International Conference on Electrical, Electronics and Computer Engineering (IcETRAN), Niš, 3-6 June 2024
Track: Artificial Intelligence
https://www.etran.rs/2024/en/home-english/
Professional air quality monitoring systems provide immediate, on-site data for analysis, compliance, and decision-making.
Monitor common gases, weather parameters, particulates.
Nutraceutical market, scope and growth: Herbal drug technologyLokesh Patil
As consumer awareness of health and wellness rises, the nutraceutical market—which includes goods like functional meals, drinks, and dietary supplements that provide health advantages beyond basic nutrition—is growing significantly. As healthcare expenses rise, the population ages, and people want natural and preventative health solutions more and more, this industry is increasing quickly. Further driving market expansion are product formulation innovations and the use of cutting-edge technology for customized nutrition. With its worldwide reach, the nutraceutical industry is expected to keep growing and provide significant chances for research and investment in a number of categories, including vitamins, minerals, probiotics, and herbal supplements.
Multi-source connectivity as the driver of solar wind variability in the heli...Sérgio Sacani
The ambient solar wind that flls the heliosphere originates from multiple
sources in the solar corona and is highly structured. It is often described
as high-speed, relatively homogeneous, plasma streams from coronal
holes and slow-speed, highly variable, streams whose source regions are
under debate. A key goal of ESA/NASA’s Solar Orbiter mission is to identify
solar wind sources and understand what drives the complexity seen in the
heliosphere. By combining magnetic feld modelling and spectroscopic
techniques with high-resolution observations and measurements, we show
that the solar wind variability detected in situ by Solar Orbiter in March
2022 is driven by spatio-temporal changes in the magnetic connectivity to
multiple sources in the solar atmosphere. The magnetic feld footpoints
connected to the spacecraft moved from the boundaries of a coronal hole
to one active region (12961) and then across to another region (12957). This
is refected in the in situ measurements, which show the transition from fast
to highly Alfvénic then to slow solar wind that is disrupted by the arrival of
a coronal mass ejection. Our results describe solar wind variability at 0.5 au
but are applicable to near-Earth observatories.
Multi-source connectivity as the driver of solar wind variability in the heli...
Ined lesthaeghe
1. European fertility in perspective
Ron Lesthaeghe
Centre d’Estudis Demografics.
Universitat Autonoma, Barcelona.
With special thanks to Krystof Zeman, Tomas Sobotka (VID Vienna) and Iñaki Permanyer (CED-Barcelona)
2. Dominant claims of the new century.
• W. Lutz et al. (IIASA): Low fertility trap -- Adverse employment conditions
& small incoming cohort sizes will lead to continued low fertility.
• Lesthaeghe & van de Kaa: SDT predicted fertility postponement and
structural below replacement fertility (but not “lowest-low”)
VERSUS
• F. Billari (Oxford), H-P. Kohler (UPenn), Myrskylä (Max Planck): Human
development improvements will now redress fertility levels in
industrialized countries.
• G. Esping-Anderson (Pompeu Fabra) : just the closing of gender gap will
redress fertility. Low fertility only temporary phase.
• OECD: higher female employment will now lead to fertility increases,
provided opportunity costs are reduced.
4. 1980s : two clusters of countries are forming:
Cluster A : Never below TFR=1.5 :
Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland
Belgium, Netherlands, France,
UK, Ireland.
Cluster B : Dip below TFR=1.5 :
W. Germany, Austria, Switzerland,
Portugal, Spain, Italy, Malta, Greece, Cyprus.
1990s: All former Communist countries join Cluster B
Many countries in Cluster B go down below TFR=1.3 (“Lowest-Low
Fertility”)
5. Cluster A
Cluster B
Total Fertility Rate, 2012 : Quintiles
Source: Eurostat
In Quintiles
1.79-2.09 dark green
1.56-1.79 light green
1.45-1.56 greenish yellow
1.38-1.45 dark yellow
1.28-1.38 light yellow
7. 1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
700 750 800 850 900 950 1000
Denmark
Iceland
Finland
Norway
Belgium
France
Netherlands
UK
Ireland
Sweden
Luxembourg
Austria
Germany
Switzerland
Cyprus
Greece
Italy
Malta
Portugal
Spain
TFR in 2000 (lowest),
2008,
2011/12
Human Development Index 2000, 2008, 1012
8. TFR and HDI European
Regions, NUTS 2 level,
2000, 2005, 2011
2000 2005
2011
TFR
HDIndex
11. ALL
Corr r Rsq
Cluster A
Corr r RSq
Cluster B
Corr r Rsq
TFR-HDI 2000 +.54 .29 -.05 .00 +.13 .02
TFR-HDI 2008 +.59 .36 +.05 .00 +.14 .02
TFR-HDI 2012 +.54 .29 -.09 .01 -.03 .00
TFR-GII 2012 -.33 .11 +.38 .15 +.11 .01
TFR-GEI*2013 +.58 .33 -.56 .28 -.05 .00
TFR-FER 2000 +.27 .07 +.06 .00 -.08 .01
TFR-FER 2009
TFR-SDT 2000
+.40 .16
+.52 .27
-.28 .08
-.68 .46
+.25 .06
+.15 .02
European total fertility rates and selected correlates (Human Development index,
UNDP gender inequality index, Permanyer Gender equality index, OECD female employment rate
20-49, and Sobotka SDT Values.
Cluster A: Scandinavia, Low Countries, France, UK, Ireland. Cluster B: rest (=Germanic,
Mediterranean, Former Communist)
12. Other issue : how to measure fertility ?
Classic period total fertility rate or PTFR = f(15-19,t)+f(20-24,t)+ …..+f(45-49,t)
Just sums up fertility rates by age for given year, but assumes that there are no
generation and no life-cycle effects but only period effects. This is a fictitious measure
pertaining to a “synthetic statistical cohort” only. ( “an accountant trick for the
impatient”). MOREOVER: PTFRs are “tempo distorted” and exaggerate real movements.
Unfortunately, economic analyses almost always use the PTFR.
Cohort total fertility rate or CTFR: sums up fertility by age as a real birth cohort
(generation) gets older over time. This is the ONLY REAL fertility measure as it pertains
to a real generation.
New proposition : Life- cycle Sensitive TFR : looks at fertility SEPARATELY for 4 different
life cycle stages, i.e. teenage fertility + young adult formative years fertility (20-29) +
catching up fertility (30-39) + ultimate correction fertility ( or contraceptive failure
fertility) 40+. LCS TFR= f(15-19, t-5)+f(20-29,t)+f(30-39,t+10)+f(40-44,t+15)
Mainly f(20-29) is the economically sensitive part, the rest much less.
13. t-5 t t+5 t+10 t+15 t+20
40
35
30
25
20
Age
Pure Period
Pure Cohort
Life-cycle Sensitive
Definitions of Period, Cohort and Life-cycle sensitive total fertility 20-39.
14. Cohort TFR
Period TFR
Cohort TFR
RL Life-cycle Sensitive TFR
PTFR underestimates CTFR
Virtually no distortion
PTFR overestimates CTFR
Three fertility measures and their historical correlation, European countries.
Courtesy of Krystof Zeman, Vienna Institute of Demography.
15. 0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
t2000 t2001 t2002 t2003 t2004 t2005 t2006 t2007 t2008 t2009 t2010 t2011
at
be
ch
de
dk
es
fi
fr
uk
ie
is
it
nl
no
pt
se
Evolution cumulated fertility 20-29 – N, W & S Europe
17. 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
ie nl is dk no fr lu fi se ch es uk it be pt cy gr de mt at hr si hu ee po lv li sk rs cz ro bg ua ru by
2000
2008
2011
Evolution European fertility 30-39 , 2000-2011
18. 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
es it gr ch de ie pt nl ua si se lv cz at sk hu bg uk ru ee po ro lt lu fi dk by hr be cy sb no fr is
Cumulated fertility per 1000 women in the age groups 20-29 (F20) in 2001
and 30-39 (F30) in 2011
F20 2001 F30 2011
25. Conclusions.
1. Correlations with general Human Development, Gender (In)equality or Female
Employment indicators are merely statistical artefacts ( dramatic cases of “split
correlation”), and the Period TFR is a low validity fertility measure. No sweeping stories
here. No “automatic rises” either.
2. Finer analyses need finer fertility measurements (life-cycle specific or true cohort)
3. The bottlenecks for the European countries vary substantially:
• German speaking (de, at, ch) : still big gender gap, culturally lagged, inadequate child
care, dysfunctional schooling hours. Inadequate fertility recuperation after age 30.
• Mediterranean: tradition of very late home leaving, high youth unemployment & high
housing costs, modest child-care, large gender gaps, late fertility start with low
recuperation.
• Former Communist: combinations of almost ALL bottlenecks, poorest countries (ru,
by, ua, bu, ro) worst off. Baltic: fewer “cultural” handicaps.
4. BOTTOM LINE : RL prediction ( 2nd demographic transition) : sustained below-
replacement for the second decade as well.
26. 0
50
100150
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
YEAR
AT BE DK FI FR DE IE
NL NO PT ES SE UK CH
Child allowance for first child, 1970-2005
Source: A. Gauthier (2010) Comparative Family Policy Database
ES,PT
AT, DE
CH
27. 0
20406080
1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
AT BE DK FI FR DE IE
NL NO PT ES SE GB
Children 0-2, enrolment in child-care, 1990-2005
Source: Luci & Thevenon, 2010.
AT
DE
DK
NL
