Age & sex, population growth (30 1-2017) by dr min ko ko

1. 2nd Session: Population Estimation & Projection
Dr. Min Ko Ko
M.B.,B.S, M.Med.Sc. (Public Health)
Ph.D. in Demography (Mahidol University)
Associate Professor
Health Behaviour & Communication Department
University of Public Health26-1-2017
1st Session: Demographic Analysis
 Analysis on Age & Sex composition
 Analysis on Population growth

2. Ground Rules for today discussion?
1-
2-
3-
4-
5-
6-
7-

3. Warming Up

4. Outline of Presentation
I. Analysis on Age & Sex composition
II. Basic measure of change
III. Analysis on Population growth
IV. Population estimation & Projection

5. I. Analysis on Age & Sex composition
POPULATION PYRAMID
Population in
Five Year
Age bands
Young Age (Dependents)
FEMALES
to the righ
MALES
to the left
5
OLD AGE (Dependent)
Working Age
(Economically Active)

6. 1.1 Sex Ratio
Sex Ratio =
Number of males
Number of females
X 100
The number of males per 100 females.
Typically, Sex Ratio at birth is 105 males per 100 female.
In Myanmar, As of 2014 Census,
Male = 24225304
Female= 25987763
Sex Ratio= ??
SR of Myanmar= 93 Males for every 100 females

7. 41.5 38.6 35 31.8 28.9 28.3 27
52.5 55.1 57.8 59.6 61.6 63 64.2
6 7.2 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1973 Census 1983 Census 1991 PCFS 1997 FRHS 2001 FRHS 2007 FRHS 2014 US
Census
≥60
15-59
0-14
1.2 Proportion of the elderly population
• ‘If the proportion of 60+ are
• <10% = Young Population,
• 10-19.9 %= Aged Population,
• 20-26.9% = Complete age Population,
• ≥ 27% Super Aged Population’
= x/(x=y)
= 60+/Total

8. 1.3 Dependency and Support Ratio
Young dependency ratio =
Pop(0-14)
Pop(15-59)
X 100
It means that every 100 people on working age (15-59years) have to take care of ----- people of under
age 15 years old
Old dependency ratio =
Pop(60+)
Pop(15-59)
X 100
It means that every 100 people on working age (15-59 years) have to take care of --------- people of
more than and equal 60 years old
Total dependency ratio =
[Pop(0-14) + Pop(60+)]
Pop(15-59)
X 100
It means that every 100 people on working age (15-59 years) have to take care of------------ people of
dependant age

9. 1.3 Dependency and Support Ratio (cont:)
Parent support ratio
(Caretaker ratio) =
Pop(85+)
Pop(50-64) (esp: female)
X 100
It means that every 100 person aged 50-64 years must take care of about --------- people aged 85 years
and above.
Relatives- especially daughters are assumed as responsibility for providing support for frail aged person.
Ageing Index=
Pop(60+)
Pop(0-14)
X 100
It means that there are -------- aged people in every 100 young people.
The older the population, the higher the index.
Indices greater than 100 show that older people outnumber children.

10. 0
20
40
60
80
100
1973
Census
1983
Census
1991
PCFS
1997
FRHS
2001
FRHS
2007
FRHS
2014 US
Census
90
82
73
68
63.4
58.6
52.7
11.5 11.6 12.3 13 13.8 13.8 13.5
Total Dependency Ratio Elderly (60+) Dependency Ratio
Dependency Ratios of Myanmar

11. Differences & Uses
Young
Dependency
Old
Dependency
Total
Dependency
Parent
support
Ageing
Index
Definition
Advantages
Disadvantages
Who are “Dependents”? Who are “Supporters”?
Who are “Productive”? Who are “Unproductive”?
Economic productive or Economic difficulties
Burden of country
Dependency ration is higher in developing countries.
Infrastructure Development
-Schools & related facilities
-Age homes, hospitals and related facilites
-Social security & Pension
Who is dependency?
Not all young are dependants.
Not all old are dependants.
Not all working aged are active.
Economic Dependency ratio =
Pop: not in labour force
Pop: in labour force
X 100

12. A. The mean age of three children aged 3, 4 & 11 is
----------years.
A. The modal age of children aged 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6 & 7
is -------------years.
B. The median age of three persons aged 10, 25 & 90
years is --------years.
C. The median age of four persons aged 10, 25, 30 &
90 years is ------------years.
6
5
25
27.5

13. 1.4 Measures of Central Age
 Mean: average or arithmetic mean
mean = Σx/n
 Mode: the most frequently occurring value
 Median: the middle value in a set of
numbers arranged in order

14. 1.4 Measures of Central Age
Median Age from Group Data
Age that divides a population into two groups of the same
size, such that half the total population is younger than this
age, and the other half older.
Young population - median age < 30
Old population - median age > 30
Why Median Age is important?

15. Brain Storming- 1Age
Group
Freque
ncy
Cumulative
Frequency
<20 3165
20-24 2739
25-29 2219
30-34 1838
35-39 1685
40-44 1212
45-49 877
50-54 539
55-59 362
60 and
over
993
Total
25
15629
5904
2219
5
Median Age= 29.3 years

16. 18.1
20.2
21
22.3
24
26
27.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1973
Census
1983
Census
1991 PCFS 1997 FRHS2001 FRHS2007 FRHS 2014 US
Census
Union
Male
Female
Median Age of Myanmar

17. II. Basic measure of Population Change
1) The most basic method is “Balancing Equation”
P2 = P1 + (B – D) + (IM – OM)
2) Natural Increase = Birth - Death
3) Net Migration = In-migration – Out-migration
4) Natural Increase Rate =
Birth – Death in a year
Mid-year population
X K
(expressed as
100 %)
5) Net Migration Rate=
IM – OM in a year
Mid-year population
X K
(expressed as
100 %)
If B > D …Population will grow/decline
If IM > OM.... Population will grow/decline

18. 6- Growth Rate (r)
The growth rate is the rate at which a population is increasing
(or decreasing) in a given year due to natural increase rate and
net migration rate, expressed as a percentage of the base
population.
Growth Rate = Natural Increase Rate + Net Migration Rate
7- Doubling Tme
As its current growth rate, a population would be double in size.
Doubling Time = 70/r
Calculating Doubling Time helps sketch how fast a
population is growing at the present time.

19. Population Size (in million) of Myanmar
2.75 3.737
7.722
10.491
12.115 13.212 14.667
16.824
19.101
22.541
28.921
35.307
51.48
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Source: Myanmar Population & Housing Census 2014
What do you see in this figure?
What information is available?

20. Malthus’s Theory of Population Growth
• Famous on his Publication
– 55,000-word Essay on the Principle of Population in 1798.
• He argued against Godwin’s forecast of a perfect future world
where “everyone’s needs would be satisfied”.
• According to Malthus “principle” this was impossible because
there was a universal tendency for population to outrun the
means of subsistence.
Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)

21. • Malthus felt that there was a conflict between two basic
human needs:
1) for ‘subsistence’ (food) and
2) for ‘passion between the sexes’ (or sexual intercourse).
Since food is an essential component to human life, unless
checked, population will tend to increase faster than subsistence.

22. Arithmetic growth
2000
4000
6000
8000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2000
Population
Year
1,2,3,4,5,6,…….

23. Geometric growth
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1 2 3 4 5 6
Population
Year
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2001
He assumed that while population can increase in geometric
progression (1,2,4,8,16,…), in practice agricultural production could
not increase faster than arithmetic progression (1,2,3,4,5,…).

24. Exponential growth
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2000
Population
Year
70,000
Population is daily changes!

25. Two Checks
• Malthus’s Two categories of checks on populations, that slows
its growth and keep the population from rising exponentially
for too long.
1) Positive checks- it relates to cause of death and increase
death rate.
-poverty, disease, epidemics, famine and war.
-potential parents are less likely to have children when they know that
their children are likely to starve.
2) Preventive checks- it relates to decrease birth rate.
- ‘improper arts’ such as abortion; and
- ‘moral restraint’ (which means delaying marriage until able to
support a family)
As Malthus was a religious man, he considered that both positive and preventive
checks were regards as “misery or vice” while only moral constraint was
acceptable check.

26. Criticisms for Malthus's concept
1) Although he emphasized the limited supply of land, but he
did not anticipate the benefits from improved transportation
and opening up of new agricultural land and elsewhere.
2) Animals and plants can increase in geometric progression,
under favorable conditions. Technology can also advance at a
rapid rate and can improve agricultural methods to increase
productivity.
3) He did not envisage the control of fertility within marriage.
He only stated on delayed marriage.
4) Fertility can fall as economic development takes place and as
the standard of living rises.

27. Geometric Exponential
1. Absolute Change
= Pt - P0
2. Percentage Change
= [(Pt - P0 )/ P0 ] x 100
1. End of Population
Pt = P0 x (1+ r)n
1. End of Population
Pt = P0 x e rn
3. Average annual increase
= (Pt - P0 )/n
2. Initial Population
P0 = Pt / (1+ r)n
2. Initial Population
P0 = Pt / e rn
Arithmetic 3. Interval between two pop:
n= log (Pt / P0 )/ log (1+r)
3. Interval between two pop:
n= [ln(Pt / P0 )]/ r
4. Arithmetic growth rate
r = [(Pt - P0 )/n] / P0 x 100
4. Geometric growth rate
r = [(Pt / P0 )1/n]-1
Log (1+r) = [log (Pt / P0 )]/n
Exponential growth rate
r= [ln (Pt / P0 )]/t
5. Doubling time
(Short cut key)
= 70/r
5. Doubling time
(Short cut key)
= 70/r
5. Doubling time
(Short cut key)
= 70/r
III. Analysis on Population growth
Can apply in population estimation & projection by
Interpolation method

28. Self-study exercise (1)
1950 1990 1997
Births 2337507 1221585 1190000
Deaths 904876 820305 917000
Population 82900000 123478000 125638000
Rates per 1000
Crude birth rate
Crude death rate
Natural Increase
Natural Increase Rate
Net migration between
1950-1990
Net migration between
1990-1997

29. Self-study exercise (2)
Myanmar 1973 Census 1983 Census 2014 Census
Total Population 28,921,000 35,307,913 51,486,253
Questions
1. Absolute Change from (1973-1983), (1983-2014)
2. Percent change from (1973-1983), (1983-2014)
3. Average annual increase from (1973-1983), (1983-2014)
4. Average annual growth rate per cent (exponential) from (1973-1983),
(1983-2014; just for exercise, in real practice- should not for >30yrs)
5. If average annual population growth rate between 2003 and 2014 is 0.89 per
cent, how long would Myanmar’s population take to double?

30. Please see your distributed paper
Q: Calculate & interpret demographic indicators from given
table (as much as you can)
Self- study exercise (3)
Population age and Sex structure of Myanmar,
2014 Census

31. Break x 10 minutes

32. • DAVID LUCAS AND PAUL MEYER. 1994. Beginning of Population
Studies, National Center for Development Studies, Australian
National University
• HAUPT, A., KANE, THOMAS T. AND HAUB, C. 2011. PRB’s Population
Handbook (6th edition). Population Reference Bureau.
• PALMORE, J. A. & ROBERT W. GARDNER. 1983. Measuring Mortality,
Fertility, and Natural Increase: A Self- Teaching Guide to
Elementary Measures. Honolulu: The East-West Center. Chapter I
(p.1-7)
• ROWLAND, D.. 2003. Demographic Methods and Concepts. Oxford :
Oxford University Press. Chapter I (p.13-44)
More Readings & References