2. Learning Outcomes
• Understand Methods and data for forecasting
• Explanation of consumption
• Morbidity
• Demographic
• Services
3. What is Quantification?
Quantification is the process of:
• Forecasting – estimating the quantities and costs of the
products required for a specific health program (or
service),
AND
• Supply planning – determining when the products should
be delivered, to ensure an uninterrupted supply for the
program.
4. What is FORECASTING?
• Commodity forecasting is
estimating the quantities of
commodities that could be
consumed by a program for a
specific period of time in the
future.
6. Quantification helps managers to…..
Identify the funding needs and gaps
maximize the use of available
resources
Advocate for additional resources
Ensure procurement is co-ordinated for
continuous supply of commodities
7. Data categories use in forecasting
1) Consumption data - actual quantities of health commodities
dispensed-to-user or used
2) Services data- number of services provided, number of visits
at which products are dispensed, tests conducted, episodes of
disease etc.
3) Morbidity data- estimated incidence or prevalence rates of
specific diseases
4) Demographic data – data on population characteristics ,
growth, and trends
8. Consumption data in forecasting
• Data which are the quantity of each product dispensed or consumed
over the past 12 month period
• Used in historical data to predict future distribution and is accurate
as long as data providing programs continue
• It is Obtained from:
• LMIS records and reports
• Common data problems:
• Incomplete data because of missing reports
• Under-reporting
• Stock-outs
9. Consumption data example
• Last year 2,000 x 500 tins of doxycycline were consumed. If trends
remain the same, how much is required for next year?
Consumption of products based on past consumption = Total
forecasted quantity
10. Service data class exercise
• Last year XX had 25 existing patients who each visited two
times and received 30 condoms each at each visit. Last year
XX also saw 10 new patients once; who were each given 15
condoms. If trends continue and the 10 new patients
become repeat patients, what will be your forecasted
quantity of condoms?
• Work out the answer in pairs.
• ANS =???
11. Demographic data for forecasting
• Data on population characteristics, growth, and trends
• This is suitable for a new program with no historical data
• This information about people must be converted to product
numbers
• Often used to estimate the total unmet need for a service or
treatment in a country programme.
• Should be combined with other sources of data
• Obtained from: Demographic and Health Surveys, census data.
12. Demographic data example
• A total population is 2,3 million and, of that, 25% are
adults age 15-49 of which 50% are females. Each
female needs 8 capsules of mefenamic acid capsules
per year. This population is expected to grow by 5%.
How many capsules would be forecasted for next
year?
• Work in pairs and arrive to the answer.
• ANS: ?????
13. Morbidity data for forecasting
• Data which are incidence and prevalence of specific
diseases (may be available by population group within a
defined population)
• A benchmark for comparing against consumption figures to
verify rational medicine use, i.e., by applying the STG to the
number of episodes of the health problem actually treated
• Most complex and time-consuming method, but usually most
convincing
• Obtained from: HMIS or health facilities, STGs
14. Morbidity data example
• Last year our country recorded 100,000 cases of
genital ulcer disease. About 2% of these cases were
treated with Acyclovir 400mg tablets, taken three
times daily for 7 days. Forecast the amount of
acyclovir needed for next year.
• Work in pairs
• ANS: ?????
15. Quantification lesson summary
• Quantification = Forecasting + Supply planning
• Quantification comes after product selection &
specification AND before procurement (Logistics cycle)
• How do managers benefit from the quantification
exercise?
• There are 4 data sources / types for quantification
• A mix of data sources is preferred
• Benefits and limitations of each data source.
