Mintec Market Price Movements report outlines important changes affecting key food ingredients and associated raw materials across global commodity markets and impacting procurement supply chains.

1. Tuna Update: Tuna Market November 2019
Analysis: Vanilla update: supplies continue to
outweigh demand
Apple: Half-Yearly Update: Apple Market December
2019
Rice: Update: Rice Market December 2019
Lamb Australian sheep flock at 100-year lows
Grape: Chilean table grape exports to fall only slightly
despite severe drought conditions
Update Tensions between China and
Canada weigh on the rapeseed market
BFPI Brexit Food Price Index
Current & previous month movements
Oil: Argentina’s government raises export taxes on key
crops to fund spending
Apple Juice Update: Half-Yearly Update: Apple Juice
Market November 2019
EU SMP: Prices continue to rally

2. This months most significant price movements across the food & associated commodity markets.
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latest news and prices.

3. This months most significant price movements across the food & associated commodity markets.
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the latest news and prices.

4. In December, Argentina’s new government hiked export taxes on a number of
products, raising levies to 30% for soyabeans and soya products, from 25%
previously, and to 12% from 7% previously for wheat and maize. Among other
products, taxes have been also raised for legumes, rice or beef.
The government is seeking to raise the taxes further through an emergency bill
which was sent to congress in December. This new bill would give the government
authority to raise export taxes to 33% for soyabeans and soya products and 15% for
other commodities.
The taxes have been raised to fund Argentina’s large public debt and new spending
under the new president Alberto Fernandez. In December, government officials
stated that the country was prepared to renegotiate about USD 100 billion in debt
with bondholders and other creditors, including loans from the IMF (International
Monetary Fund). At the same time, the government decided to postpone the
payments on short-term debt known as ‘Letes’ until 31st August 2020.
The Argentine peso weakened slightly in response to the delayed debt payments.
The currency has been falling throughout the year, currently down 37% y-o-y against
the USD, affected by the unstable financial environment in Argentina.
In August, the peso weakened substantially after Mauricio Macri, Argentina’s former
president, suffered an unexpected defeat in a primary election.
In December, government officials
stated that the country was prepared
to renegotiate about USD 100 billion
in debt with bondholders and other
creditors

5. The average price of Chinese apple juice in the US dropped by 6% in the past six
months (Jun-Nov 19), compared to the previous six-month average (Dec 18-May
19), driven by expectations of a rebound in Chinese apple production in 2019/20.
As a result, the Chinese apple juice supplies in 2019/20 are anticipated to reach
500,000-600,000 tonnes, an approximate increase of 49% y-o-y.
The average six-month price of EU apple juice (Jun-Nov19) increased by 6.4%,
compared to the previous six-month average (Dec18-May19) as a result of lower
apple production in Poland and thus lesser availability of apples for processing.
Poland’s 2019/20 apple production is expected to reach 2.7m tonnes, down 27% y-
o-y as a result of frosts and dry weather, driving the Polish apple juice production
estimate to 225,000 tonnes, down 49% y-o-y.
From economical to political, all the factors impacting the apple juice market have
been analysed to provide a market outlook for the next six months. Mintec’s
market outlooks (schedule) provide insights on factors shaping the market
dynamics of various commodities, providing the opportunity for market
participants to stay ahead of factors that will impact procurement decisions.
Chinese apple juice supplies in
2019/20 are anticipated to reach
500,000-600,000 tonnes, an
approximate increase of 49% y-o-y

6. Food supply from production and distribution to food service
and retail – the world in which you operate - is volatile,
uncertain, complex, and ambiguous. The nature and speed of
change means that your environment is unpredictable putting
constant pressure on margins.
The increasing complexity of supply chains, the choice of
suppliers and the range of new food products means that the
issues your organization faces can easily lead to confusion
and operational errors that threaten your success.
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7. The Mintec EU SMP price gained 55% y-o-y and was up 4% m-o-m at the
beginning of December as the EU intervention stocks have been cleared and
the export demand has been strong. SMP prices from other main markets
have been also increasing.
The European Commission has reported that as of September there were no
SMP intervention stocks remaining, down from 100,000 tonnes in January 2019
and 280,151 tonnes in September 2018.
As for exports, between January and October, the EU exported 845,385 tonnes
of SMP, a 26% y-o-y increase. The export growth was driven by rising exports to
China (+47%) and Indonesia (+46%) while exports to the EU’s third major SMP
market, Algeria, remains down 29% y-o-y.
EU export numbers have benefitted from the trade tensions between Mexico
and the US. Between January and September, the EU exported 30,529 tonnes
of SMP to Mexico, an increase from 2018’s 1,885 tonnes. Political instability in
Algeria has continued to lead to slow demand for milk powder imports in 2019.
Overall, exports have slowed in the second half of 2019.
EU production of SMP has reached 1.287 million tonnes in 2019 (January-
October) a very slight increase of 0.4% y-o-y.
European Commission has reported
that as of September there were no
SMP intervention stocks remaining,
down from 100,000 tonnes

8. The Mintec average price (September-November) of Thai skipjack tuna is up 8%
compared to the last three months (June-August), driven by a sharp increase in
prices during August and September. This was mainly a result of the ban on
fishing with FAD (fish aggregating device) in the Western and Central Pacific
Ocean (WCPO) region and the “veda” closure in the Eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO)
region.
Nevertheless, since the end of October, fishing levels increased in the WCPO
region as boats were allowed to fish with FADs once again. This has added
upward pressure to the Thai tuna supply, which resulted in a drop in prices
between October and November. Additionally, with stocks in the canneries close
to full capacity, demand for feedstock decreased, thus further pressurising
prices.
From economical to political, all the factors impacting the tuna market have been
analysed to provide a market outlook for the next three months. Mintec’s market
outlooks (schedule) provide insights on factors shaping the market dynamics of
various commodities, providing the opportunity for market participants to stay
ahead of factors that will impact procurement decisions.
Mintec average price (September-
November) of Thai skipjack tuna is up
8% compared to the last three months
(June-August)

9. Improved value comes not from acquiring data, but from
an integrated view that enables you to access independent
information quickly.
Uniform and comprehensive data and insight, sourced
independently through RPA automation and experienced
teams, is a critically important component in driving your
continued success. Whether your negotiating with
suppliers or evidence basing your decisions to customers.
But equally important to acquiring the right data is getting
access to advanced analytical tools which enable you to
work more effectively with the limited time available.
Allowing you to connect the dots between geographies,
commodities, wholesale prices across the supply chain.
Sales and procurement professionals in retail,
food manufacturing and food service sectors benefit from Mintec

10. The Mintec price of Madagascan vanilla has declined by 15% y-o-y and is down 3% q-o-q
with a view that prices could continue falling on the back of higher supply and subdued
demand.
Madagascar saw a very good crop in terms of volume and quality in 2018. Although the
output dropped in 2019 due to weak flowering, the rising production from other origins,
coupled with a decent carry-in from 2018, boosted the global supplies. At the same time, the
global demand for vanilla has been lackluster as food manufacturers have been moving
away from natural vanilla due to previously high prices.
When the green campaign opened in Madagascar in May and June, early localised demand
for green beans saw prices moving above MGA 200,000 per kg, quite above the
expectations of MGA 150,000, and some traders believed that this would lift vanilla prices
higher. However, this has not materialised as global supplies continue to outweigh demand.
The flowering has been strong for the 2020 crop, especially in the Sava region. It is still very
early in the season, but subject to favourable weather conditions, especially during the
South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season between November and April, the output next
year could reach in excess of 1,700 tonnes. From 2020 onwards, Madagascar is set to
benefit from new vanilla plants coming into full maturity. These were planted 4-5 years back
when global vanilla prices started rising amid growing global demand.
Madagascan vanilla has declined by 15%
y-o-y and is down 3% q-o-q with a view
that prices could continue falling on the
back of higher supply and subdued
demand
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latest news and prices.

11. The average price of EU apples increased by 71% in the last six months (Jul-Dec
19), compared to the previous six-month average (Jan-Jun 19) as a result of the
contraction in Poland’s apple production due to unfavourable weather
conditions in the country.
Meanwhile, the average price of Chinese apples rose 10% in the past six
months (Jul-Dec 19) compared to the previous six-month average (Jan-Jun19)
increased by 36%, compared to the same period in 2018. China’s 2018/19 apple
crop was hit by severe frosts, which cut back the production by 35% y-o-y,
resulting in higher-than-usual prices.
In the US, the six-month average price of apples dropped by 3%, compared to
the previous six-month average, due to an increase in the apple production
forecast in the US driven by favourable summer weather in the country.
From economical to political, all the factors impacting the apple market have
been analysed to provide a market outlook for the next six months. Mintec’s
market outlooks (schedule) provide insights on factors shaping the market
dynamics of various commodities, providing the opportunity for market
participants to stay ahead of factors that will impact procurement decisions.
China’s 2018/19 apple crop was hit by
severe frosts, which cut back the
production by 35% y-o-y, resulting in
higher-than-usual prices.
Source: Mintec Analytics

12. Our price data and market insight mean
you’ll be better able to anticipate and
overcome the impact of market volatility
and macro-environmental changes
on your business.
Giving your people the time to be able to
use data effectively to create more
sophisticated scenarios and cost models
that will validate their pricing strategies and
inform their supplier negotiations.
By focusing less on data quantity and more
on data quality, you'll create an operating
environment that is more efficient, more
profitable, and more stable for delivering
stakeholder value and maximizing margins.

13. The six-month average price (July-December) of Indian rice is 2% lower compared
to the previous six-month average, and 5% lower than the same period the
previous year. Mintec Indian rice prices fell due to low demand and new supply
entering the market in consequence of the harvesting season, which commenced
in October.
The Asian rice market is experiencing a high wave of competition, as major
exporters compete for market presence. Thai rice prices continue at a premium
compared to other Asian exporters, supported by the appreciation of the Thai
Baht against the US dollar. The widening gap between Thai rice and other
suppliers has resulted in a lower export forecast for this marketing year due to
low foreign demand. On the other hand, Vietnamese prices are trending at much
lower levels than other major exporters, driven by higher production and tepid
demand, which may increase its attractiveness in the global market.
From economical to political, all the factors impacting the rice market have been
analysed to provide a market outlook for the next six months. Mintec’s market
outlooks (schedule) provide insights on factors shaping the market dynamics of
various commodities, providing the opportunity for market participants to stay
ahead of factors that will impact procurement decisions.
Indian rice is 2% lower compared
to the previous six-month average,
and 5% lower than the same period

14. The Australian drought has taken a toll on the sheep and lamb population in
the country; thus, the Australian sheep flock are at a 100-year low. As a result,
Mintec prices are up 32% y-o-y in the first week of December 2019.
Prolonged drought in Australia has been detrimental for the pastures, which are
the primary feeding source for the sheep and lambs. Along with the prolonged
drought, the recent bush fires have worsened the situation. Fires have also
impacted grain feeds, and Australia is already dependant on imports to arrange
these feeds. Early estimates for sheep suggest that 13% of the national flock live
in regions that have been significantly impacted and a further 17% in areas that
are partially affected.
Australia is the largest exporter of sheep and lamb, with New Zealand being the
second largest. As a result, any further drop in the sheep flock in Australia is
anticipated to tighten the global supplies and add upward pressure to New
Zealand sheep prices. New Zealand ships significant volumes into the EU and
also, due to African Swine Fever, the demand for New Zealand sheepmeat from
China is high. Thus, all the above factors are likely to result in high sheep and
lamb prices in 2020.
Mintec prices are up 32% y-o-y in
the first week of December 2019

15. To operate competitively, companies often focus on
simply acquiring data, believing that more data
means better decisions.
However, these companies don’t always realise the
risks of combining information from multiple
sources, and the issues associated with relying on
reproduced or biased data.
It’s not just the quality of data that affects your
bottom line. Today’s markets are inter-connected.
Global food supply chain dynamics shape commodity
prices and what might seem a small, isolated event
taking place on the other side of the world can have
significant repercussions on your business.
This is especially true for non-exchange traded
goods where transparency and independent insight
can be more difficult to obtain, but often affect your
biggest spends.
With margins continuing to be squeezed, it has
become harder than ever to achieve – and then
sustain – improvements to the bottom line.
All of this can mean increased costs, reduced
operational effectiveness and increased risk. This
makes it harder to deliver value for your
stakeholders and maximize your margins.
So how do you tackle these issues?...
Find out more about Mintec Data.

16. Chilean farmers are facing prospects of lower production across a large number
of crops due to the severe drought Chile has been experiencing this year. Earlier
in the growing season, Antonio Walker, the Chilean Minister of Agriculture,
described this year’s drought as the biggest drought in the history of Chile.
Chile is a major exporter of grapes and dried grapes, and the severe drought was
expected to tighten the supply availability, potentially causing prices to rise in
these two segments.
However, for the table grapes, despite the earlier expectations, the production is
projected relatively unchanged compared to the last year, based on the data
released by ODEPA (Office for Agricultural Studies and Policies). Exports of table
grapes from Chile in 2019/20 have been recently estimated by PMA (Produce
Marketing Association) at 644,000 tonnes, down only slightly compared to the last
year, by 1.6%, taking into account the drought conditions and the damage caused
by frosts in October in the central areas of Chile.
For the dried grapes, the official estimates are not yet available, but most market
participants expect the raisin production to decline from last year’s 66,500
tonnes.
Exports of table grapes from Chile
in 2019/20 have been recently
estimated by PMA (Produce
Marketing Association) at 644,000
tonnes

17. The tensions between China and Canada over the rapeseed shipments are
continuing to weigh on Canadian rapeseed prices. In March, China stopped
imports from Canada’s two largest exporters, Richardson International and
Viterra, following claims of pest infestation in the crop.
As of December, Chinese buyers were still unable to import Canadian rapeseed,
despite small volumes dispatched since the import ban (notably through the
United Arab Emirates). The lower exports to China counterbalanced the strong
demand from other consuming countries and have prevented further price
increases on the Canadian rapeseed. The tensions are unlikely to be resolved in
the next few months and are expected to partly offset the bullish effect of the EU
demand on Canadian prices.
Despite the fact that the rapeseed oil imports from Canada are not banned by
China, 2019 volumes show that on a y-o-y basis, China imported 15% less
rapeseed oil from Canada (January-October) at 792,00 tonnes. Exports started to
decline in Q3 2019 due to the trade tensions and are likely to also weigh on
rapeseed oil prices in Canada in the next few months.
China imported 15% less rapeseed oil
from Canada (January-October) at
792,00 tonnes.

18. Brexit Food Price Index Methodology
The purpose of this Brexit Food Price Index is to measure the changes in the
price of selected food categories that are reportedly highly sensitive to the
outcome of the Brexit process, particularly since the referendum in June 2016.
The index will be updated and reported on a monthly basis.
Categories have been weighted based on the value of the UK agri-food imports
from the EU, with the fruit and vegetables category carrying the highest
weighting, as the UK has a significant deficit in fruit and vegetable production.
The overall index (Chart 1) shows a spike after the referendum and has since
been maintained at this high level. Various categories have driven the index at
different points; however, the drivers have not been limited to Brexit, as
discussed within the various categories below.
Click here to read the current Mintec Brexit Food Price Index – updated monthly.

19. Analysis of price data helps reveal how food prices
change over time can; helping you gauge the true
level of food price increases.
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