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This document summarizes a presentation on confronting high food prices. It discusses how food prices have risen to unusual levels due to factors like increasing incomes, biofuels production, slowing agricultural growth, and speculation. This has negatively impacted the poor. While globalization and reduced distortions have helped in the past, rising protectionism in response to high prices threatens to undermine trade and harm consumers. The presentation argues for new institutional arrangements to better handle food price volatility and its effects.
This document outlines the formation and goals of the CGIAR Platform on Agriculture and Health. The platform was created in 2006 to focus research on the linkages between agriculture and health that are relevant for poor populations. It aims to bring together the research communities of agriculture and health to generate new knowledge in a collaborative manner. Some priority research issues identified include nutrition, food safety, water-borne diseases, avian flu, HIV/AIDS, and how they intersect with agriculture, livelihoods, and poverty reduction. The platform seeks to coordinate this research and establish priorities, partnerships, and funding strategies to monitor its progress.
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This document summarizes a study on changing patterns of pulses trade. It finds that imports of peas have significantly increased, leapfrogging other pulses to become the largest imported commodity. There has been a congruent change between domestic production and imports. The import portfolio has become more dynamic over time in terms of variety and partners. While import penetration of pulses is still lower than edible oils, pulses imports can play an important role in cooling domestic pulse markets. The study utilizes detailed customs data to analyze pulses trade at a granular level. It finds that Canada and Myanmar are major trading partners and exporters of different pulses to India. There is potential to become a net exporter of value-added pulses like chickpeas, based on
The document discusses the challenges of climate change and ensuring global food security. It argues that agriculture must be appropriately integrated into climate change agreements to address both climate change in the context of food security and food security in the context of climate change. Climate change is projected to reduce production of key crops like rice, maize and wheat by 2050 according to the models discussed, which could significantly increase food prices and malnutrition. Investments in agricultural adaptation and mitigation totaling $7 billion annually are needed to counteract the effects of climate change.
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Food and Financial Crises:Implications for Agriculture and the PoorJoachim von Braun
This document summarizes a presentation on the implications of the food and financial crises. It discusses how the financial crisis may negatively impact agriculture and the poor through reduced investment, employment, and policy attention. It presents scenarios showing rising food prices and malnutrition under recession conditions. It recommends priorities for action including increasing agricultural R&D, reducing food market volatility, and expanding social protection programs and nutrition action.
This document summarizes a presentation on confronting high food prices. It discusses how food prices have risen to unusual levels due to factors like increasing incomes, biofuels production, slowing agricultural growth, and speculation. This has negatively impacted the poor. While globalization and reduced distortions have helped in the past, rising protectionism in response to high prices threatens to undermine trade and harm consumers. The presentation argues for new institutional arrangements to better handle food price volatility and its effects.
This document outlines the formation and goals of the CGIAR Platform on Agriculture and Health. The platform was created in 2006 to focus research on the linkages between agriculture and health that are relevant for poor populations. It aims to bring together the research communities of agriculture and health to generate new knowledge in a collaborative manner. Some priority research issues identified include nutrition, food safety, water-borne diseases, avian flu, HIV/AIDS, and how they intersect with agriculture, livelihoods, and poverty reduction. The platform seeks to coordinate this research and establish priorities, partnerships, and funding strategies to monitor its progress.
Food Security in the 21st Century: Actions for Better Governance, Market Fun...Joachim von Braun
This document discusses challenges to global food security in the 21st century. It identifies short-term challenges like poverty, population growth, and limited resources, as well as long-term challenges such as climate change and increasing competition for land and water. Productivity growth in agriculture is declining while global demand for food and biofuels is rising. Effective governance and policy reform are needed to balance food, energy, and political security to ensure food access for all.
This document summarizes a study on changing patterns of pulses trade. It finds that imports of peas have significantly increased, leapfrogging other pulses to become the largest imported commodity. There has been a congruent change between domestic production and imports. The import portfolio has become more dynamic over time in terms of variety and partners. While import penetration of pulses is still lower than edible oils, pulses imports can play an important role in cooling domestic pulse markets. The study utilizes detailed customs data to analyze pulses trade at a granular level. It finds that Canada and Myanmar are major trading partners and exporters of different pulses to India. There is potential to become a net exporter of value-added pulses like chickpeas, based on
The document discusses the challenges of climate change and ensuring global food security. It argues that agriculture must be appropriately integrated into climate change agreements to address both climate change in the context of food security and food security in the context of climate change. Climate change is projected to reduce production of key crops like rice, maize and wheat by 2050 according to the models discussed, which could significantly increase food prices and malnutrition. Investments in agricultural adaptation and mitigation totaling $7 billion annually are needed to counteract the effects of climate change.
Globalization of the agri-food system and the poor in developing countriesDr...Joachim von Braun
This document summarizes a presentation given by Joachim von Braun on the globalization of agri-food systems and its impact on the poor in developing countries. The key points discussed include the major drivers of globalization such as trade, foreign direct investment, changing consumer demand, information and communication technologies, and agricultural research and development. The presentation also examines the mixed effects of globalization on economic growth and poverty reduction, noting differences based on assessment standards and time periods. Lastly, it discusses some of the policy implications stemming from the globalization of agri-food systems.
Food and Financial Crises:Implications for Agriculture and the PoorJoachim von Braun
This document summarizes a presentation on the implications of the food and financial crises. It discusses how the financial crisis may negatively impact agriculture and the poor through reduced investment, employment, and policy attention. It presents scenarios showing rising food prices and malnutrition under recession conditions. It recommends priorities for action including increasing agricultural R&D, reducing food market volatility, and expanding social protection programs and nutrition action.
Emerging Issues in Developing Countries’ Food and Agriculture: Challenges for...Joachim von Braun
This document summarizes a presentation given by Joachim von Braun, the Director General of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The key points are:
1. Von Braun provides an overview of IFPRI, including its staff size, budget, locations, and research divisions.
2. He discusses major challenges facing developing countries related to food, agriculture, health, and nutrition including rising food prices, climate change, transformation of smallholder farms, and disappointing progress in WTO negotiations.
3. Von Braun emphasizes the need to focus on rural development and agriculture to reduce poverty and hunger given that the majority of the world's poor live in rural areas and depend on agriculture for their liv
The document discusses the global food and water paradox of needing to produce more food with less available water resources due to population growth, increasing wealth, and climate change. It notes that water withdrawals have increased much faster than population over the 20th century. Solutions proposed to address the paradox include improving irrigation efficiency, building water storage, recycling/reuse, improving urban/industrial efficiency, water reforms, reducing food waste, and enhancing agricultural supply chains.
This document discusses strategic issues related to global food security. It identifies both old and new risks threatening food security, such as conflicts, HIV/AIDS, and natural resource degradation. It presents data on historical and current hunger, undernutrition rates, and cereal production, stocks, and prices. Scenarios project potential outcomes of food security by 2050 under different policy approaches. Improving food security will require increased international and national commitments.
This document discusses the impacts of US biofuel development on agriculture and food security. It notes that federal policies like subsidies and renewable fuel standards have driven biofuel growth. While biofuels reduce dependence on foreign oil, the rapid expansion of the ethanol industry has increased corn prices and decreased exports. In the long run, as population grows and yield gains slow, meeting increasing global demand for food and fuel will be challenging without rising food prices and threats to global food security.
This document summarizes a presentation by Joachim von Braun on the world food situation. It discusses several key drivers changing the global food equation, including income growth, climate change, urbanization, and the rise of biofuels. It notes that higher and more volatile food prices impact the poor globally. The presentation calls for pro-poor policies like open trade, increased agricultural productivity, and aid to address food insecurity.
1) Global food demand is projected to increase substantially by 2050 due to population and income growth, putting pressure on agricultural systems. Key commodities like palm oil, soy, and beef will need to significantly scale up sustainable production.
2) New approaches are needed across agricultural supply chains to improve sustainability. Areas of focus include reducing waste, adopting better farming practices, utilizing new technologies, defining property rights, and intensifying sustainable production. Multi-stakeholder initiatives and pre-competitive collaboration can help drive systemic changes.
3) Long-term contracts, increased transparency, and cooperation across the public and private sectors will be important to transform global commodity markets and meet rising demand for food and fiber in an environmentally responsible
A 'Plan B' for Food Security - The water variability connection, by Jan Lundq...Global Water Partnership
This document discusses critical issues around climate change, food security, and water resources in South Asia. It focuses on developing alternative strategies ("Plan B") to solely increasing food production, given uncertainties from climate change, population growth, and other factors. Specifically, it argues for reducing post-harvest losses and food waste by 50% as a more sustainable approach ("9th MDG") compared to production-focused plans. The document provides statistics and examples to support developing complementary strategies around food storage, transport, markets, and consumption patterns.
Meat and live animals value chain development: IPMS and partners experiences ILRI
This document summarizes the experiences of the International Livestock Research Institute's (ILRI) Improving Productivity and Market Success (IPMS) program in developing meat and livestock value chains in Ethiopia. It describes diagnostic findings that identified opportunities and limitations, interventions across the value chain including feed development, production, input supply, processing and marketing. Results showed improved forage quality and quantity, profitable ox and small ruminant fattening, increased income and participation. Gender impacts included women's control of income. Environmental benefits included ground cover improvements and gully stabilization. Key lessons included choices in breed improvement and reducing mortality and disease.
Presentations for CTA/WUR Inception Workshop on “Mainstreaming Tertiary Education in ACP ARD Policy Processes: Increasing Food Supply and Reducing Hunger”
This document discusses the integration of agricultural and energy markets and the effects on food security. It notes that rising global population and incomes are increasing both food and energy demand. Agricultural production relies on energy for inputs like fertilizer and machinery, so higher energy prices increase food costs. The growth of biofuels also competes for agricultural land and feedstocks. Ensuring adequate, affordable food supplies will require balancing food, energy and environmental needs.
Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with almost $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios. Agcapita publishes a monthly Agriculture Brief which deals with agriculture specific investment issues along with big picture macro-economic issues.
The document discusses challenges and opportunities for achieving global food security through sustainable agriculture and innovation. It notes rising food insecurity, prices, and competition for land and water. Key drivers of future demand include population and income growth while supply is constrained by land and water scarcity and climate change impacts. Strategies discussed include agricultural technology and research to boost productivity, as well as integrated soil management, irrigation improvements, and crop breeding innovations. Modeling tools can assess impacts and guide development of location-specific solutions.
This document summarizes the progress of agriculture in India between 1951 and 2011, highlighting the Green, White, and Blue Revolutions that led to major increases in foodgrain, milk, and fish production. It also discusses ongoing challenges around malnutrition, climate change impacts, and the need for continued investment in agriculture research and development to sustain gains and ensure food security. Key priorities include making growth more inclusive to reduce poverty and inequality, adapting to and managing climate risks, and taking a systems-based approach to achieve comprehensive nutrition security.
Market Research Report : Biofuels Market in China 2010Netscribes, Inc.
China is the second largest producer of bioethanol in the world after Country 1 and Country 2. Biofuels such as bioethanol and biodiesel are expected to become major transportation fuels in China due to concerns about declining oil reserves and rising environmental issues. While corn is currently the primary feedstock for bioethanol, the government is promoting the use of non-food crops and second-generation biofuels like cellulosic ethanol to address food security challenges. Both domestic and foreign companies are establishing biofuel facilities in China, with competition in the market growing steadily.
The document discusses the challenges facing the livestock sector in the coming decades due to population growth, increasing demand for meat and dairy, and constraints on land and water availability. It argues that efficiency gains are key to ensuring sustainable growth in the sector. Intensifying production through improved technologies and management can boost output while reducing environmental impacts. There are opportunities to close efficiency gaps, enhance grassland management, and reduce waste discharge to build a more sustainable livestock sector. Collaboration across actors will be important to optimize these opportunities.
This document discusses sustainable consumption and the circular economy. It notes that while progress has been made, western societies still lead in consumption and developing countries seek to emulate unsustainable western growth models. Current economic growth is still linked to rising consumption, putting pressure on limited resources. A circular economy approach is needed to address these challenges and close the expected gap between global food availability and demand by 2050 through solutions like reducing food loss and waste, improving productivity, and shifting to more sustainable diets. Some signs of corporate leadership on sustainability issues are emerging but it remains a low priority for many boards. An approach beyond business as usual is required to manage risks to the environment and economy.
1) The document discusses global food security and agricultural productivity trends from 1950-2050.
2) It notes that from 1950-2000, called the "Age of Abundance", global food supply grew faster than demand, keeping prices low due to steady productivity gains.
3) Looking ahead to 2050, it estimates global food demand will need to increase 1.3% annually, and questions whether productivity can continue growing fast enough to meet this demand sustainably.
This document discusses opportunities for increasing global food and agricultural production through investment. It notes that food demand is projected to increase 70% by 2050 due to population and income growth. However, land and water resources are scarce. There are high potential gaps between current production levels and capacity in regions like Latin America, the Black Sea Region, and Africa due to favorable natural conditions. The document promotes increasing agricultural investment to $83 billion annually by 2050, a 50% rise from the past decade's average, to boost output and meet rising demand. It provides examples of IFC investment and advisory programs in Ukraine to improve access to finance, production efficiencies, and supply chain development in the agricultural sector.
The document discusses the challenges of climate change for agriculture and food security. It argues that resources and research need to focus on helping poor rural communities adapt. International climate agreements could impact food security depending on how agriculture is treated and funds are allocated. The document proposes specific policy actions and Copenhagen agreement language around incentivizing agricultural mitigation, increasing adaptation investment, and establishing a public technology network focused on climate-smart agriculture.
1) The document discusses rising global food insecurity and the risks posed by factors like poverty, volatile food prices, financial crises, and climate change.
2) It outlines an agenda for research, investment, and action that includes promoting agricultural growth, innovating insurance systems, facilitating open trade, and expanding social protection programs.
3) Key recommendations include tripling investment in agricultural research and innovation, developing new insurance products for smallholders, keeping trade open during food shortages, and protecting vulnerable groups through cash transfers and nutrition programs.
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Promises and Challenges When Food Makes Fuel
1. Promises and Challenges When
Food Makes Fuel
CRAWFORD FUND CONFERENCE ON BIOFUELS,
ENERGY, AND AGRICULTURE – Powering Towards
World Food Security?
Joachim von Braun
Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
Canberra
August, 2007
2. Global food system under stress
• global population growth
• economic growth high
• number of hungry and undernourished
hardly decreasing
• scarcity of land and water resources
• under-investment in agricultural
science and technology
• and now + biofuels?
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
3. Hunger and malnutrition
1000 Number of hungry people in millions
950
900
Developing world
850
800
750
700 Developing world without China
650
600
550
500
1969-1971 1979-1981 1990-1992 1995-1997 2001-2003 2002-2004
provisional prelim inary
Data source: FAO 2006
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
4. Who is affected by hunger?
Why rural/agriculture focus is so relevant
Urban poor
20%
Fishers, herders
Small Framers
Land less, rural 50%
20%
Source: UN Millennium Project, Hunger Task Force, 2005
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
5. Old and new global food and
nutrition problems
Type Causes People affected
Hunger Deficiency of calories 0.9 billion
and protein
Children Inadequate intake of food 126 million
underweight and frequent disease
Micro-nutrient Deficiency of vitamins More than
deficiency and minerals 2 billion
Overweight to Unhealthy diets; Lifestyle Increasing also
chronic disease among the poor
Source: Based on data from FAO 2005a, UN/SCN 2004, Micronutrient Initiative and UNICEF 2005
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
6. History of World supply of primary energy
world Energy 1850-2000
500
450
400
Gas
350
Oil
EJ/year
300
250 Coal
200 Nuclear
150 Hydro +
100 Biomass
50 Hydro+ means
hydropower plus
0 other renewables
besides biomass
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Energy supply grew 20-fold between 1850 and 2000. Fossil fuels
Year
supplied 80% of the world’s energy in 2000. (Holdren 2007)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
7. Questions
1. Where and for whom are there
opportunities?
2. What are the associated risks and
challenges?
3. How could the opportunities be
tapped and risks and challenges
addressed?
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
8. The biofuels boom
World ethanol and bio-diesel production, 1975-2005
40
35 4.0
30 3.5
Billion liters
25 3.0
Billion litres
2.5
20
2.0
15
1.5
10 1.0
5 0.5
0 0.0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Ethanol > 90% of biofuel production;
Bio-diesel: EU is the largest
Brazil & US dominate ethanol market
producer & consumer
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007 Source: Worldwatch Institute, 2006
9. Energy - agriculture linkages
Grain for filling an SUV tank with ethanol
=
Grain consumed by 1 person for a year
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
10. Plans
annual growth in biofuel production …2010/12
• Ethanol: Biodiesel:
- USA: 16% USA: 19%
- EU: 45% EU: 37%
- Brazil: 8% Malaysia: 248%
- India: 15% Indonesia: 143%
- China: 3% Thailand: 70%
Source: USDA, 2006; 2007
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
11. Potentials
of biofuels (and risks) - countries
• If 15% of transport fuel from biofuels
(and actual plans realized), would
that be a burden for food security?
• variables used:
1. Availability of arable land
2. Availability of water
3. Levels of food insecurity
• of 102 countries: 36 low potential
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
12. Where are the biofuel potentials and risks?
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007 Source: FAO, 2006 & 2007; IEA, 2007; USDA, 2006
13. Example of a too simplistic concept of
energy - agriculture linkages
Grain for filling an SUV tank with ethanol
= Grain consumed by 1 person for a year
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
15. Political and societal change
• New powers and rent seeking (-)
• Biofuels and peace & security (+)
• Agriculture / energy mismatch (?)
• Subsidies for biofuels are anti-poor
• Needed: Establishment of a global
market and trade regime with
transparent standards for biofuels
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
16. Environmental aspects
• Biofuels can mitigate climate change or
damaging (+/-)
• Can be positive or negative for forests,
and soils (+/-)
needed:
> criteria that internalize the positive and
negative externalities of biofuels
(energy balance; and CO2 emissions)
> Environmental cost-effectiveness
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
17. Economic change: the issues
• Growth
• Jobs
• Competitiveness and technology
• Food – fuel competition
Prices and the poor
Food security of the poor
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
18. MIRAGE-Model: From shock to impact
Initial shock Substitution effect
C
CUT in OIL, COAL
and GAS RESERVES o
m
Increase in world Increased
p
prices of oil, coal demand for
e
and gas biofuels
t
Demand for
i
energy is rigid
t
Increased demand i
for land and o
agricultural labor n
What impact
on food e
f
prices and
f
production ? e
c
t
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
Source: Bouet et al., 2007
19. Change in agric. value added by 2020:
scenarios compared with baseline (%)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
15.0
10.6
10.0 7.8
5.0 2.9 3.6
1.9 2.6
0.0
-5.0 -3.9 -3.5
-10.0 -8.3 -7.4
EU
ca
a
US
il
ca
a
a
ia
a
in
az
ic
di
si
As
fri
fri
Ch
er
In
A
Br
fA
A
m
d
ng
pe
N
A
o
pi
st
&
L
lo
lo
Re
of
ve
E
ve
le
De
st
De
d
Re
id
M
Source: MIRAGE
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
20. Competitiveness ?
• Costs of feedstock dominate costs
Ethanol: 50-70%; Biodiesel: 70-80%
• Net production costs differ widely
(Ethanol, US$ / liter 2003/4):
Brazil .17; Thai .28,
Austral. .37; Germany .59
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
21. Technology and the food – fuel competition
Improved technology in biofuels can
increase the food fuel competition
• biofuel and other agriculture technology
need to be invested in simultaneously = a
CGIAR role
• In many developing countries it makes
sense to wait for second- and third-
generation biofuel- technologies, and plan
for “leapfrogging”
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
22. Prices: Agricultural and energy prices
increasingly correlate
500 Corn 70
450 Rice
60
Sugar
400
Oil seeds
350 50
Crude oil (right)
300
40
250
30
200
150 20
100
10
50
0 0
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
…and price variations are up
Source: IMF, 2007; OECD, 2005; World Bank, 2007
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
23. IMPACT-Model: biofuel scenarios by 2020
Price changes
Biofuel Expansion
% by 2020
Actual plans and
corn: + 3
Scenario 1 assumed
oilseeds: +8
expansions
Doubling of Scen.1 corn: + 13
Scenario 2 expansion oilseeds: +17
another Neglect of technology Corn: +20–41
scenario and expansion Oilseeds: +26-76
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
24. Calorie availability changes in 2020
compared to baseline (%)
N America
SSA
S Asia
MENA
LAC
ECA
EAP
-3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0
Biofuel expansion Drastic biofuel expansionIMPACT-WATER
Source:
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
25. Price-effects for Bangladesh five-person household
living on one dollar-a-day per person
Spend…their 5 $
3.00 $ on food
.50 $ on energy
1.50 $ on nonfood
>a 20 percent increase in food and energy prices
requires them to cut 70 cents of their
expenditures.
Cuts will be made most in food expenditures:
>reduced diet quality, and
>increased micronutrient malnutrition
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
26. Conclusions
The world food equation is changing
Biofuel expansion will…
• accelerate globalization of agriculture
• increase crop prizes,
• raise land values, thereby draw capital into
rural areas
• create some jobs
Risks for the poor
No 1 : food price increase and instability
No 2 : ill-considered policies
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007
27. Strategic framework for biofuels needed
3 Pillars of pro-poor biofuels strategy:
1. Science and technology strategy
2. Markets and trade strategy
3. Insurance and social protection strategy
a very different
Green Revolution
is needed
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, August 2007