This document discusses the statelessness of Somalia and Somali territories since 1991 when the central government collapsed. It examines the questions of what caused the lack of an effective state, the consequences, and how order can be maintained without a state. It outlines the various Somali polities that have emerged and their systems of local governance based on clan structures. While state-building efforts from international groups have failed, some areas like Somaliland have successfully established governance from the local level. The challenges of piracy in Puntland and terrorism spreading from al-Shabaab in southern Somalia into Kenya are also discussed.

1. Finding Order in Countries with
Weak States: The Dilemma of the
Somali Polities
David K. Leonard
Governance Team
IDS

2. The Questions
• The former Somalia has not had an effective
state since 1991.
• What are the causes and consequences of this
statelessness?
• How can an acceptable level of human
security and order be found in these
circumstances?

3. Eastern Africa

4. The Somali Polities Under Colonialism,
• Somalis are a distinct ethnic group, with their
own language and culture.
• Largely pastoralist
• Historically stateless
• British Somaliland and (Italian) Somalia
• (French) Djibouti
• Significant numbers in Ethiopia (Ogaden) &
Kenya (North-east Province)

5. Somali Territories

6. Current Somali Polities
• Djibouti (Somali dominated)
• Somaliland (reasserted indepin 1991)
• Transitional Federal Government
– Mogadishu
– Puntland (autonomous)
– Mudug (autonomous)
• Islamist (Kismayu and south-central)
• Ethiopian Region V and Kenyan North-east

7. Livelihoods Under Statelessness
• Livestock production and trade OK
• Fishing hurt by EU toxic dumping
• Inter-riverine crop production hurt and thus
famine in south
• Service infrastructure hurt as tax base is weak
• Overall – probably better in north than under
Barre’s state

8. Governance without States?
• Order maintained by clan-based diya-paying
groups of ca. 100 adult males
• Tit-for-tat
• Governance is highly egalitarian
• But now also distorted by military and
commercial patrons
– Business  Militias not v.v.
• Contract enforcement through shariacourts

9. Location of Major Clan Families in
1950s

10. Islam: Not Whether but What Type
• A good business partner is a good Muslim
• All Sunnis, but in south
– Sufis AhluSunnaWaljama'a
– Wahabisal-Shabab

11. Failure of State-building from Above
• Continuous international efforts since 1991 to
recreate the Somalia state
• All based on elite bargains and all have failed
• Most recent is Transitional Federal Government
(2004)
• Ethiopian incursion of 2006 ended in failure and
withdrawal
• African Union stalled under Burundi & Uganda
• Kenyan incursion of south?

12. Successful Governance from the
Bottom
• Somaliland – elders  elder delegates in +4
month negotiations (1991-1993)
• Puntland – in +3 month negotiations (1998)
supported by militia leadership
• SSC (Sool, Sanaag and Cayn) – looks 2 ways
• Galmudug -- AhluSunnaWaljama'a&Hawiye
clan
• Kismayu and south – al Shabaab/ Hizbul Islam

13. Encouraging Governance
• Interpeace (WSP); Bryden, Menkhaus
• From the bottom
• Without worrying about UN statehood, size or
regularity
• Encouraging through UN trust fund aid to
whatever is working

14. Challenges -- Piracy
• Puntland
• Eyl but
• Money & power
• Don’t want to force into Islamist hands
• More effective NATO corridors

15. Challenges – Terrorism in Kenya
• Legitimate Kenyan interests
• Now supported by Ethiopia (& US)
• But can it succeed or will it exacerbate?
• Negotiations inhibited by unwillingness to
deal with Islamist polities or by lack of internal
control?
• Counter-attacks by drone?