This powerpoint presentation is from Jacob Zenn's discussion on "Instability in Northern Nigeria: The View from the Ground" for the Jamestown Foundation event "Boko Haram and Beyond" on June 19, 2012.
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Jacob Zenn, JTF panel on Boko Haram, June 19
1. Instability in Northern Nigeria: The View From the Ground
Jamestown Foundation: June 19, 2012
Presentation by: Jacob Zenn, Analyst for W.African Affairs
Part 1: The View From the Ground in Northern Nigeria
Five Key Observations from the Field
No. Nigeria’s Human Terrain & Ethno-regional Networks
Northerners’ Perspectives
Southerners’ Perspectives
Part 2: Boko Haram as Source of Instability in Nigeria
Boko Haram Origins, Evolution, and “Milestone Attacks”
Typology and Targets of Attacks
Expansion from Northern Nigeria
Part 3: Current Developments and Conclusions
2. Key Observations from the Field
Borno/Yobe borders closed to formal international traffic
Maiduguri curfew; Kano militarized; Frequent road checkpoints
Nigeria’s Neighbors call BH “Nigeria’s problem,” but leaders disagree
INGOs, foreigners, and “Southerners”/Christians leaving North
Al-Majiri student-beggars rampant in Borno and rest of North
4. Northern Nigeria Human Terrain
Fulani Hausa Anglo-Francophone Divide
Kanuri and Bornu Empire Shuwa Arab
5. Key Northern Perspectives
Inadequacy of “half-Sharia;” Iranian
“Islamic Revolution” seen as model
Nigeria has an Islamic identity; “2/3 of
the population is Muslim”
Gov’t stealing from people
71 % of Nigerian
Muslims Favor Sharia
82% of Nigerians viewed
corrupt political leaders
as top national problem
6. Key Southern Perspectives
South would be wealthier without the
North; “Nigeria can split like South Sudan”
The north’s goal is to make Nigeria ungovernable;
“They want the Christian President to fail”
Believe Christians are the majority in Nigeria
Nigeria: 2nd most oil reserves in Africa Implications if a Split: All Oil in SE
7. Boko Haram as Source of Instability
Jama’atu AhliSunna Lidda'awati WalJihad
(People Committed to the Propagation
of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad)
Origins and main AO in Yobe/Borno
Funded by politicians, hawalas,
donations, bank robberies, and now AQIM
“Jihadi” Faction led by Abubakr Shekau
Holds no territory; ops in borders/urban areas
Members also from Niger, Chad, Cameroon
Attacks only in Nigeria and only a particular
set of targets; South now in BH’s range
International Relationships Developing
9. “Milestone” Attacks
Confrontation begins, Christmas eve 2003 (Yobe)
Yusuf killed in 4-day battle, 7/2009 (4 states)
Prison Break, 9/2010 (Bauchi)
Christmas Day Attacks, 12/2010 (Jos)
Election Season Attacks, 8/2011 (Jos, Borno)
UN Headquarters VBIED, 8/2011 (Abuja)
Christmas Day Attacks, 12/2011 (Niger State)
Mass killing of 200+ people, 1/2012 (Kano)
Churches, 6/2012 (Kaduna-Wusasa)
Lagos, Ibadan, “Yorubaland” next?
10. Attacks Have Begun in the South; Still None Abroad
Boko Haram Major Attacks by state, late 2010 - 2012
11. Targets of Attacks
Political/religious leaders
Gov’t, military, and police institutions
Banks
Beer/poker halls
Schools/Universities
Churches
Media Houses
Foreigners
12. Conclusions: Current Developments
Ethnoregional networks: Libya arms, Mali
(base in Gao?), Lake Chad, Borderlands
Targets: Heightened threat to foreigners
Arrests of Sponsors: (K. Sokoto, Suleiman Mohamed
Abu Qaqa I & II, Sen. Ali Ndume, 5 Shura members)
AO: Attempts to Strike South &
Southern/Christian Retaliation
Recruits: Need Al-Majiri Reform
Civic: 2015 Elections critical
Evolution: JamatuAnsarul Musilimina fiBiladis Sudan
School enrolment is already lower in Borno – 28% – than in any other state in Nigeria, according to the Nigeria education data survey in 2010. 2009 Natl Bureau of Statistics
Boko Haram’s Salafi discourse represents the transformation of both ethno-nationalist aspiration and traditional religious revival. Usman dan Fodio led the Fulani thrust and proclaimed a holy war (the Fulani War ) on the allegedly irreligious Muslims of the area. His campaign eventually affected Kanem-Bornu and inspired a trend toward Islamic orthodoxy, but a Muslim scholar-turned-statesman, Muhammad al-Amin al-Kanemi , contested the Fulani advance. An approximately 534,460 km territory that included Cameroon’s Extreme North Region, Niger’s Departments of Zinder and Diffa, and the prefectures of Lac and Kanem in Chad. Today, this greater Kanuri region—Northeastern Nigeria, Northern Cameroon, Southeastern Niger, and Southwestern Chad—constitutes the extended base of activity of Boko Haram. .17 Hausa characteristics
Pew Poll also confirm 71% Most stats show a 50-50 split. Can be excused for thinking so as many of their states are like 90+%
http://allafrica.com/stories/201204230310.html
has focused more on assassinating state security personnel, politicians, and rival religious leaders than on burning down schools. the fact that organized school burnings have only begun at this late stage of the rebellion confirms that “Boko Haram” has a much broader meaning than just an assault on Western-style education. May Nigeria shares a 1,690km border with Cameroon to its east, a 1,497km border with Niger to the north and an 87km border with Chad in the northeast. Nigeria’s borders with Niger and Chad alone have 480 irregular border crossings, while there are only 12 official borders manned by Nigerian officials. Moreover, the capital of Borno State, Maiduguri, which is Boko Haram’s main base of operations, is approximately 100 miles from Niger, Chad and Cameroon… Meanwhile in the north, security officials recently seized 52 AK-47 rifles, 1,700 rounds of ammunition and $32,000 in cash being smuggled from Chad to the flashpoint city of Jos, where thousands of people have been killed in sectarian violence in recent years AQIM: Ashafa, http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/ashafa-admitted-al-qaeda-link-ex-sss-boss-tells-court/112956/ Now kidnappings Ndume http://nigeriatrends.com/court-convicts-boko-haram%E2%80%99s-leader-remands-senator-ndume/ Ali Sanda Umar Konduga Kabiru Sokoto story And the original guy who was killed during the yusuf raid and indirectly other countries (Saudi, Iran, Pakistan connections) Saudi, Iran, Paki, Ashafa is currently facing a five-count charge of receiving monetary payments from Talha and Na’deem (Al-Qaeda operatives) of the Tabliqh headquarters, Lahore, Pakistan, for recruiting and training terrorists. At least 30 bank attacks attributed to Boko Haram have been reported this year, according to the police. (no territory) it is clear that one of the lessons learned by Boko Haram for its second phase was to avoid having an obvious base. Each time the organization faced reprisal operations conducted by police and army forces, the surviving Boko Haram militants would flee to safe havens in Cameroon, Niger, and Chad.
December 24, 2003. The group attacked the residences of local government heads, regional officials, and the divisional police. That attack marked the beginning of what would become Boko Haram’s insurgent campaign against the state.12 took majirai, pissed off univ students as intellects.. The guns looked very sophisticated and they handled them with expertise like combatants 2011- 800 dead, 65000 displaced, 59% to 32% for Jonathan April 24, 2011 the group said: “We do not believe in any system of government, be it traditional or orthodox. That is why we are fighting against democracy, capitalism, socialism and the rest… We do not respect the Nigerian government because it is illegal… We will continue to fight its military and police because they are not protecting Islam...” 40 churches burned down. Jos (Jesus is our Saviour) church attacks from Abu Qaqa III, "We launched these attacks to prove the Nigerian security wrong and to debunk their claim that we have been weakened by the military crackdown," he said, speaking in the Hausa language common throughout Nigeria's north. "The Nigerian state and Christians are our enemies and we will be launching attacks on the Nigerian state and its security apparatus as well as churches until we achieve our goal of establishing an Islamic state in place of the secular state.” http://www.france24.com/en/20120610-nigeria-jos-attack-suicide-bomber-church-gunman June 10, 2012 - A Boko Haram suicide bomber killed three people in an attack outside a church in Jos. June 8, 2012 - A Boko Haram suicide bomber killed four people an attack outside a police station in Maiduguri. June 3, 2012 - A Boko Haram suicide bomber killed 15 people an attack on a church in Bauchi. April 30, 2012 - A Boko Haram suicide bomber killed 11 people and wounded more than 20 in an attack on a police convoy in Jalingo, the capital of Taraba state. April 26, 2012 - The editor of ThisDay confirmed that a suicide bomber drove a jeep into the newspaper's office in Abuja, killing two people. April 8, 2012 - Boko Haram killed 36 people and wounded dozens more in several bombings outside of a church in Kaduna on Easter day. March 11, 2012 - A Boko Haram suicide bomber killed three civilians in a bombing outside of a church in Jos. The suicide bomber was stopped before he could enter the compound. Feb. 26, 2012 - A Boko Haram suicide bomber killed six Christians during an attack at a church in Jos. Jan. 21, 2012 - Boko Haram killed more than 140 people during a series of blasts, including a suicide bombing, and shootings in Kano. Boko Haram claimed credit for the attacks, which targeted police and immigration buildings.
Its major operations since that time can be divided into the following attack categories: 1) military (three operations); 2) police (at least 16 operations); 3) teachers/university (five operations); 4) banks and markets (two operations); 5) carrying out al-amr bi-l-ma`ruf attacks on beer drinkers, card-players, etc. (at least five operations); 6) attacks on Christian preachers and churches (at least three operations); and 7) targeted assassinations (at least five major operations). The targeted assassinations are the most revealing, involving political figures, such as Abba Anas bin `Umar (killed in May 2011), the brother of the Shehu of Borno, and secular opposition figures (Modu Fannami Godio, killed in January 2011), but also prominent clerics such as Bashir Kashara, a well-known Wahhabi figure (killed in October 2010), Ibrahim Ahmad Abdullahi, a non-violent preacher (killed in March 2011), and Ibrahim Birkuti, a well-known popular preacher who challenged Boko Haram (killed in June 2011). On May 30, this year, suspected members of the sect shot dead Abba Anas Umar Garbai El-Kanemi, the younger brother of the Shehu of Borno, Alhaji Abubakar Ibn Umar Garbai El-Kanemi. Also, a renowned Islamic Scholar, Shiekh Ibrahim Gomari, amongst other religious scholars, was also shot by the sect members in front of his mosque in Gomari Airport ward in March. 3 recent kidnappings
Sahel – open ungovernable and traditonally ungoverned: Tarha said he interrogated Adnan Ibrahim in 2006 when he was intercepted by the Libyan authorities and Ibrahim confirmed to him that he sent Ashafa to Pakistan and Ashafa with another Nigerian terrorist identified as Yusuf Ahamed made him transport Nigerians for terrorism training in the Sahel Region. Ag Ghali refuses to fight the al-Qaeda katibas whom, he claims, still have rights as "guests" on the soil of Azawad. After independence, Ansar ud-Dine will become an Islamist political party. http://7our.wordpress.com/2012/06/04/a-brief-summary-of-an-algerian-video-in-azawad/ According to Ansar, Jama'atu Ansarul Musilimina fi Biladin Sudan differentiates itself from Boko Haram in three noticeable aspects. First, Ansar does not believe in the killing of innocent non-Muslims, except in "self defense" or if they attack Muslims. "Islam forbids killing of innocent people including non-Muslims. This is our belief and we stand for it," Ansar said in the video. Boko Haram, on the other hand, considers all non-Muslims, and particularly Christians, as enemies who must be killed. http://www.punchng.com/news/jtf-kills-16-suspected-boko-haram-members-in-maiduguri/ http://africadefensejournal.wordpress.com/2012/04/04/nigeria-goc-defends-arrest-of-33-suspected-boko-haram-members/ Southern Retaliation: http://www.dailytrust.com.ng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=164752:comptroller-bot-admitted-supplying-bullets-to-jos-ali-kwara-&catid=1:news&Itemid=2 MEND, Massob etc… Buhari, Election 2015: http://saharareporters.com/news-page/i-may-run-2015-says-buhari%E2%80%A2-he-upright-%E2%80%93-obasanjo A loss in the elections challenges their very notion of what is nigeria – cannot believe possible a christian wins. Thus polls always believed to be rigged Unwritten north-south rule unsustainable
