The document analyzes completion rates of a French MOOC offered in 2013. It describes the course structure and demographics of participants. It finds that 26% obtained a basic certificate, 12% an advanced certificate, and 49% did not complete. Lack of time was the main constraint. Completion rates correlated with participants' stated objectives and background factors like country's development level. Forum posting and peer assessment involvement were good predictors of higher completion, suggesting interactivity improves outcomes.

1. Analysing completion rates of the first French xMOOC

2. Summary
MOOC Description and Demographics
Understanding Completion Rates
Predicting Completion Rates
EPFL– 12 February 2014

3. MOOC Description and Demographics
One MOOC, three tracks
A Centrale Lille MOOC, with many partners
Platform : Canvas.net, 5 weeks (March-April 2013)
Basic Statistics
•
3485 signed in for the spring edition
•
74.3% of them took part in the initial survey
EPFL– 12 February 2014

4. MOOC Description and Demographics
One MOOC, three tracks
Auditing
•
•
•
1h30 of video/week
Forums
Social Networks
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Exam and quizz deadlines
Basic Certificate
•
•
•
Weekly Quizzes
Final Exam
~ 2 hours of work /week
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Assignment deadline
Advanced Certificate
•
•
•
Quizzes and Final exam
4 Peer-assessed assignments
~ 10 hours of work /week
Peer evaluation
EPFL– 12 February 2014

5. MOOC Description and Demographics
MOOC Demographics > Learners’ Background
Gender
Employment status
6.5
14.3
In Management positions
32.2
Employees
Masculine
67.8
52.2
13.7
Unemployed
Students
Feminine
Others
13.4
Human Development Index
24%
Very High
High
5%
4%
Medium
67%
Low
EPFL– 12 February 2014

6. Understanding Completion Rates
Achievements vs. Objectives
Learners’ achievements
Basic Certificate
Advanced Certificate
No-show
26%
Non-completers
Learners’ intentions (initial survey)
49%
12%
26%
45%
13%
Advanced Certificate
Basic Certificate
Score = Achievements - Objectives
43%
Unsure or not interested by a certificate
29%
43%
Null Score
Positive Score
14%
Negative Score
EPFL– 12 February 2014

7. Understanding Completion Rates
Analyzing Learners’ constraints
Less than 2 hours
Time constraints
Between 2 and 4 hours
9%
26%
Technical issues
16%
Between 4 and 6 hours
Skills
More than 6 hours
24%
22%
62%
41%
How much time do you intend to spend weekly for the MOOC ?
What was your main constraint (2nd edition of the MOOC) ?
• Lack of time seems to be one of the most important limiting factors for most learners
EPFL– 12 February 2014

8. Understanding Completion Rates
Achievements, Constraints and Objectives
2=
Achievement
191, p < 0.001
400
350
Number of participants
2=
NC : Non Completer
BC : Basic Certificate
AC : Advanced Certificate
300
< 2 hours
250
2-4 hours
200
4-6 hours
150
> 6 hours
100
Objective
193, p < 0.001
BC : Basic Certificate
AC : Advanced Certificate
NT: No Target or unsure
500
450
Number of participants
450
400
350
300
AC
250
BC
200
NT
150
100
50
50
0
0
NC
BC
AC
Achievement vs. Time constraints
NC
BC
AC
Achievement vs. Initial Objectives
• Time constraints and learners’ initial objectives are among the best predictors
• Strong influence of employment status, experience in project management
EPFL– 12 February 2014

9. Understanding Completion Rates
Achievement score and learner’s background
800
2=
Human Development Index
307, p < 0.001
Low
700
800
2=
31, p < 0.001
700
Medium or high
600
Very high
500
600
Male
500
400
Female
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
Negative
Null
Positive
Negative
Null
Positive
• Strong impact of Human Development Index on achievements (Lower Score for low HDI)
• Men tend to overestimate their abilities compared to women
EPFL– 12 February 2014

10. Predicting Completion Rates
Learners forum activity : views vs. post
Number of discussion threads viewed
Number of posts
• Most learners use forums, very few actually post
• Is forum activity a good predictor for completion ?
EPFL– 12 February 2014

11. Predicting Completion Rates
Completion vs. Forum activity and involvment in peer assessment
At the scale of the MOOC
2000
2=
In the advanced track only
500
498, p < 0.001
2=
146, p < 0.001
NC
1600
BC
NC
400
BC
AC
AC
1200
300
800
200
400
100
0
0
One post or more
No post
Achievement vs. Posting in the forum
No evaluation
Evaluation
Achievement vs. Participation in peer assessment
• Learners active in forums are way more likely to complete the course
• Learners who do not take part in the peer assessment process won’t complete the advanced track
EPFL– 12 February 2014

12. Conclusion
• Most learners came from high HDI countries, and were in management positions
• 38% of registered participants obtained a certificate, 57% reached or exceeded their objectives
• Lack of time seems to be the main constraint for most participants
• Human Development Index has a strong influence on achievement (completion, and score)
• Forum activity and involvment in peer assessment are good predictors of completion
EPFL– 12 February 2014