innovations simulation

1. Presented by :
Romanov Victor (professor of Russian Plekhanov University of Economics)
Agafonova Yelena (student of Russian Plekhanov University of Economics)
Sandybaeva Saltanat (student of Russian Plekhanov University of Economics)
Innovation process
simulation on the base
“Predator and Prey” model

2. Content
1) Emotion simulation study:
▪ Literature review of an emotional state formal model
2) “Hunger” considered as a feeling:
▪ Hunger in the Feeling and Simulation model
▪ Algorithm of “Satisfying Hunger”
▪ Simulation based on “Predator and Prey” model

3. Emotion simulation

4. Nowadays researchers are more and more interested in problems of
modeling emotions and feelings, which became important part of
general models of social and economic processes.
Anger
Happiness
Hunger
Joy
Hope
Fear
Sadness

5. HAPPINESS

6. An agent is intended to do
anything in order to achieve its
goal. And he also believes, that
happiness comes when all the
subgoals are done.

7. SADNESS
Sad agent is disappointed by how his plans
regress. He is seeking the way to improve
his affairs and is trying to make his goals
more realistic.
An agent is intended to follow his plan in
order to fulfill the goals. He believes that
first steps in performing his plan will have
certain effect. An agent will get upset if
those first steps fail.

8. ANGER
In this particular case, agent is angry
when his plan fails. He is trying to make
his plan work, but gets angry when
everything goes wrong.

9. HOPE
Hope is a state, when agent is
being pleased about the
prospect of a desirable event.
An agent hopes to achieve
some goal using some plan if
and only if it intends to
perform the plan for the goal
and is committed to the plan.

10. • Belἰφ : agent ἰ believes in φ;
• Goalἰφ: agent ἰ wants φ to be true;
• Xφ : means that φ is true.
•Possἰφ means that agent ἰ thinks that φ is possible.
Joyἰ φ= Belἰ φ ∧ Goalἰ φ
Agent ἰ feels joy if and only if ἰ believes
that φ true and wants φ to be true. JOY

11. FEAR
An agent fears the failure to achieve
some goal using some plan if and only
if it hopes the plan will achieve the
goal but it believes that it may not.
Fear is a state ,when agent is displeased about
the prospect of an undesirable event.

12. «Hunger» as a feeling is
based on “Predator and
prey ” model, which is
widely spread in economics

13. In this model, two participants coexist. The first one is a
company-predator, big and successful corporation. It
absorbs small businesses in order to improve its economic
efficiency.
The second participant is equally important. It is just a small
business, in particular cases it can be a start-up. Let us
consider it as a “prey”.
.
The “predator and prey” model interpretation from
economic point of view

14. Determination
of the branch
Step
1
Formation of
acquisition
company
Step
2
Setting
outcomes
of
absorption
Step 3
Defining the criteria
of the target
company
Step
4
The list of
potential prey
companies
Step
5
Assessing the
ability of the
preys
Step
6
Completion of a
deal
Step
7
Assessment of the
results
Step
8
Phases of how “Predator” acquisits “Prey”

15. 0,0,  RcRaRFRcRRa
dt
dR
0,0,  FcFaFRFcFFa
dt
dF
F – the population of foxes at time t
R – the population of rabbits at time t
RF – interaction of rabbits and foxes ,where foxes reduce
the rabbit population
FR – fox population growth due to the destruction of
rabbits
aR – factor determining the rate of population increment
due to breeding rabbits
cR – the intensity of the rabbits destruction by foxes
-aF – the rate of decrease of the population of foxes in the
result of disappearance of rabbits
cF – intensity of foxes growth due to the acquisition
“Predator and Prey” Concept

16. Our modification of “Predator and prey” model includes a new
operator – taxation of big companies, which lately is given to
start-ups as subsidies.
Taking into account this modification, the equations in our
program look like this :
• If taxes are spent on improving infrastructure:

17. • If taxes are spent on direct subsidies:

18. Program results analysis
“Predator and prey ” model
in economics

19. The program allows you to adjust:
initial population of rabbits and foxes respectively
α, δ fertility rates of rabbits and foxes respectively
γ the mortality rate of foxes
β coefficient of predation
coefficients of intraspecific competition
H happiness multiplier (determines the effectiveness of state aid to start-ups)
τ the proportion of foxes shot
T taxes collected for all periods
D the share of taxes, going to the rabbits aid
L part of the tax that is lost from the treasury (i.e. corruption)

20. The figure shows that wavelike
population increase and decrease
happen ,as for foxes and rabbits.
Note that in the wake of the way the
rabbit population reaches the
minimum value, the population of
foxes starts to extinct. As a result
rabbits start to breed
The effect of "foxes" taxation and
donating “rabbits” seen in the
gradual increase in the oscillation
amplitude.
The results of the work

21. The figure shows that the model is very
sensitive to small changes in the
parameters and the system (economy)
in the case of an incorrect adjustment
may lead to stabilization of rabbits at a
low level of foxes (large corporations),
and then to the spikes and the collapse
of both populations (the collapse of the
economy)
The results of the work

22. This figure shows that there is a mode
with very narrow range of parameters,
in which a rapid increase in foxes and
rabbits population happens
The results of the work
This is the main result of this study and
confirms the hypothesis that the model
of the economy with the taxation of large
corporations and subsidies to small
businesses can be extremely efficient in
terms of innovation.

23. It should be noted that the
deviation from the critical
values of the parameters of
taxation may again lead to
economic growth in the
presence of oscillatory
processes.
The results of the work

24. ▪To show the importance of emotions and
feelings modeling in a multi-agent system and
demonstrate this with the example of hunger
model of the "predator-prey"

25. Conclusion