Presenter: Kimo van Dijk, Researcher Nutrient Managment and Phosphorus Security, Wageningen University Co-authors: Oene Oenema & Jan Peter Lesschen Title: Present and future phosphorus use in Europe: food system scenario anaylyses Location: Sustainable Phosphorus Summit 2014, Montpellier, France Date: 1 September 2014 Personal website: http://kimovandijk.weebly.com Countries: Austria AT Belgium BE Bulgaria BG Cyprus CY Czech Republic CZ Germany DE Denmark DK Estonia EE Spain ES Finland FI France FR Greece EL Hungary HU Ireland IE Italy IT Lithuania LT Luxembourg LU Latvia LV Malta MT Netherlands NL Poland PL Portugal PT Romania RO Sweden SE Slovenia SI Slovakia SK United Kingdom UK Switzerland CH Phosphorus: Fosfor Fosfor Fòsfòr Фосфор Fosfor Фосфор Fosfor Fosfor Фосфор Фосфор Fosforas Fosfors Fuosfuors Fosfor Ffуsfforws Fosfar Fosfaras Fosfaar Fosforus Φωσφορος Ֆոսֆոր Fosfor Fosfor Фосфор Фосфор ফসফরাস فسفر ફૉસ્ફરસનો फास्फोरस Fosfor Fosfori Foszfor Фосфор Фосфор Паликандур Fosfor Fosfor Фосфор Фосфор Фосфор Фосфор Fosfor فوسفور Fosfor Fosforoa ფოსფორი [fūsfūr] זרחן Fosfru Lìn リン 인 ฟอสฟอรัส Photpho 磷 Posporo Fosfor Pūtūtae-whetū Fosforus ഫോസ്ഫറസ് பொஸ்பரசு Fosofo Fosforase Posfori Fósforo Phusphuru Fosforimi Fosforo Fosforon Pesticium

1. Present and future phosphorus use in Europe: food system scenario analyses
Kimo van Dijk
Oene Oenema & Jan Peter Lesschen
Wageningen University, kimo.vandijk@wur.nl
Sustainable Phosphorus Summit 2014, Montpellier, France, 1 September 2014

2. Overview
Phosphorus (P) cycling
Present P flows in Europe
Sustainable P use options in society
Dynamic food system model
Future P use scenario analyses
Summary & conclusions

3. Geological versus anthropogenic cycles
RESOURCE RESERVES
SINKS
Society
Crops
Animals
Industry & retail
Consumers
Non- food
Losses
Inputs [90% fertilizer, and other mineral P use]
Geological cycle
Direct IMPACTS
Anthropogenic cycle

4. Phosphorus use in the EU-27 in 2005
Detergent, wood, paper & fibers
Crops, fish,
food products & mineral additives
Animal feed,
mineral additives
& live animals
Mineral fertiliser, seeds & pesticides
Solid & liquid organic waste
Organic wastes
Wood, paper & fibers
Slaughter residues, solid & liquid waste
Crops &
food products
Manure losses
Live animals
Leaching & runoff
Seeding materials
Input
Output
Soil [150,000]
Flows & stocks in Gg = Mkg = kton P per year

5. Global fertilizer P consumption 1961-2010
FAOSTAT data 2010

6. Fertilizer P consumption in EU-27 in 2010
FAOSTAT data 2010

7. Animal feed P origin in EU-27 in 2005
Source: Miterra-Europe model, CAPRI & FAOSTAT data 2003-2005

8. Agronomic P balances in the EU
Annual regional agricultural P
balances [kg P/ha] for EU-15
in 2000
Estimated cumulative P balances [kg
P/ha] of EU countries during 1991–2005
Source: Csathó & Radimszky 2012
Source: Csathó &
Radimszky 2012

9. 0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Domestic food P supply [kg/ca/year]
Animal
Plant
Domestic food P supply in EU-27 in 2005
Domestic food P supply necessary to fullfill human dietary P intake requirements at consumption level
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)
Minimum P intake requirement
Mean EU P intake
Maximum P intake level

10. Reuse of organic waste in EU-27 in 2005
Based on Barth et al. 2008

11. Sludge destinations in EU-27 in 2010
Source: P-Rex, FP7 project, www.p-rex.eu; based on Eurostat 2010, Milieu Ltd 2010 & Destatis 2011

12. P concentrations in rivers and lakes in EU regions, period 1990 - 2005
Source: European Environment Agency, 2007

13. Potential phosphorus losses in society
Three ‘types’ of potential P losses:
●Sequestration: incineration, landfilling, co-firing or use in the cement industry
●Accumulation: in agricultural soils or the environment
●Export: flows with unclear destinations
Avoidable and unavoidable losses
Point and diffuse sources
Direct and indirect actors

14. Transition towards sustainable P use
•remove non-essential P inputs (e.g. detergents)
•match P requirements more closely (precision agriculture)
•utilise legacy P stores
Realign P inputs
•optimise input management
•minimise runoff and erosion
•strategic retention zones
Reduce P losses to water
•avoid wastage
•improve utilization efficiency
•adopt integrated production systems
Recycle P in bioresources
•recover P in societies' wastes
•produce fertilizer substitutes
Recover P in wastes
•influence dietary choice
•define end-user P requirements
•re-connect crop and animal production systems
Redefine P in the food chain
Withers, Van Dijk, et al. (submitted)

15. P recycling potential in EU-27
[Gg P/year]
Total
Recycled
Potential
Sewage sludge
297
115
182
Biodegradable solid waste
130
38
92
Meat & bone meal
128
6
122
Total (minimum)
427
153
274
Total (maximum)
555
160
396
Mineral fertiliser use
1448
Manure use
1763
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

16. EU-27 P use scenario analyses

17. Objectives & research questions
To develop a dynamic model for the analysis of the effects of changes in drivers and nutrient management strategies on P dynamics in the food chain.
What would be the P dynamics & food production in EU- 27 in case of a stop of P import via
●Q1: mineral fertilizers?
●Q2: mineral fertilizers and animal feed?
Q3: What are effects of best management practices (BMPs) on food production and P use efficiency?

18. Dynamic Food System model
Mass balance principle
Data: Miterra-Europe, CAPRI, FAOSTAT, Eurostat, reports, articles and experts
EU-27 at country level, timesteps of one year
Entire food system + non-food
P imports, exports, losses and internal flows
Flows described dynamically as function of sector input
Crop P uptake as function of soil P stock and P application

19. Scenarios & best management practices
The scenarios are:
●BAU: present (~2005), Business as Usual
●S1: no P import via fertilizer
●S2: no P import via fertilizer + compound feed
●S3: as S2 + BMPs
The best management practices (BMPs) are 90 % less:
●biowaste + waste water P losses (HC)
●forestry sector losses (NF)
●slaughter waste losses (FP)
●stable manure losses (AP)
No changes in other drivers and factors, such as population, agricultural area, crop types etc.

20. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2005
2030
2055
2080
2105
2130
2155
2180
2205
2230
2255
2280
Average crop P uptake [kg P/ha/year]
BAU
SI
S2
S3
Per ha EU-27 crop P uptake per scenario for 2005-2300
50 %
25 %
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

21. 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005
2030
2055
2080
2105
2130
2155
2180
2205
2230
2255
2280
Average soil P stock [kg P/ha]
BAU
SI
S2
S3
Per ha EU-27 soil P stock per scenario for 2005-2300
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

22. 0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
France
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Ireland
Germany
Sweden
United Kingdom
Belgium
Czech Republic
Italy
Bulgaria
Malta
Denmark
Greece
Estonia
Spain
Romania
Netherlands
Portugal
Finland
Slovakia
Poland
Austria
Latvia
Hungary
Cyprus
Slovenia
BAU
S1
S2
S3
Per capita food P supply per Member State per scenario in 2050
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

23. 0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2005
2030
2055
2080
2105
2130
2155
2180
2205
2230
2255
2280
Average food P supply [kg P/ca/year]
BAU
SI
S2
S3
Changes in per capita food P supply in EU-27 per scenario for 2005-2300
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

24. 0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2005
2030
2055
2080
2105
2130
2155
2180
2205
2230
2255
2280
Average dry matter yield [kg P/ha/year]
BAU
SI
S2
S3
Changes in dry matter crop yield in EU-27 per scenario for 2005-2300
50 %
33 %
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)

25. Conclusions for the present state
Europe is largely dependent on P imports via:
●Mineral fertilizers (60%), animal feed & additives (20%), food (10%) & non-food materials (10%)
Ongoing P accumulation in agricultural soils, especially in western Europe by P surplusses
Various recycling rates, generally low (except manure):
●Sewage sludge P recycling ranging from 0 - 90%
●Compost P re-use ranging from 0 - 70%
Significant P losses via:
●Waterways: sewage discharge, leaching & erosion
●Sequestration: incineration, landfilling, infrastructure
High potential to improve P use efficiency

26. Conclusions for future scenarios
Soil P is an important stock to take into account in P dynamics, because of its buffering capacity and large size (~150.000 Gg P)
A stop on P fertilizer import has a large effect on food production, mainly on the longer term
A stop on P import via fertilizer and animal feed makes the effect even more pronounced, causing a larger and earlier drop in food production
The effects can be mitigated by the implementation of best management practices in nutrient management
Additional data is necessary, especially for downscaling to the regional level

27. Thank you for your attention
Questions? Comments? Suggestions? kimo.vandijk@wur.nl / kimovandijk@xs4all.nl Twitter: @kimovandijk Website: kimovandijk.weebly.com

28. Additional literature and links
Presentation “Phosphorus use in Europe”, European Sustainable P conference, 6-7 March in Brussels: http://www.phosphorusplatform.eu/images/Presentation_KimovanDijk.pdf
Outcomes 2nd Scientific European Phosphorus Workshop in Wageningen: http://www.wageningenur.nl/sepw2013
Lesschen et al. 2013. Options for closing the phosphorus cycle in agriculture; Assessment of options for Northwest Europe and the Netherlands. edepot.wur.nl/289653
K.A. Wyant, J.R. Corman, and J.J. Elser. Phosphorus, Food, and Our Future. Oxford University Press, New York City, New York, USA. http://ukcatalogue.oup.com/product/9780199916832.do#.UcHr6fY6VVM
European Commission - Sustainable Phosphorus Use: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/research/newsalert/pdf/IR7.pdf
Dutch Nutrient Platform: www.nutrientenplatform.nl
European Sustainable Phosphorus Platform: www.phosphorusplatform.eu