Presenter: Kimo van Dijk, Researcher Nutrient Managment and Phosphorus Security, Wageningen University
Co-authors: Oene Oenema & Jan Peter Lesschen
Title: European phosphorus balance: uses and losses in agriculture & other sectors
Location: P-REX Summer School, Basel, Switzerland
Date: 10 September 2014
Personal website: http://kimovandijk.weebly.com
Countries:
Austria AT
Belgium BE
Bulgaria BG
Cyprus CY
Czech Republic CZ
Germany DE
Denmark DK
Estonia EE
Spain ES
Finland FI
France FR
Greece EL
Hungary HU
Ireland IE
Italy IT
Lithuania LT
Luxembourg LU
Latvia LV
Malta MT
Netherlands NL
Poland PL
Portugal PT
Romania RO
Sweden SE
Slovenia SI
Slovakia SK
United Kingdom UK
Switzerland CH
Phosphorus:
Fosfor
Fosfor
Fòsfòr
Фосфор
Fosfor
Фосфор
Fosfor
Fosfor
Фосфор
Фосфор
Fosforas
Fosfors
Fuosfuors
Fosfor
Ffуsfforws
Fosfar
Fosfaras
Fosfaar
Fosforus
Φωσφορος
Ֆոսֆոր
Fosfor
Fosfor
Фосфор
Фосфор
ফসফরাস
فسفر
ફૉસ્ફરસનો
फास्फोरस
Fosfor
Fosfori
Foszfor
Фосфор
Фосфор
Паликандур
Fosfor
Fosfor
Фосфор
Фосфор
Фосфор
Фосфор
Fosfor
فوسفور
Fosfor
Fosforoa
ფოსფორი
[fūsfūr]
זרחן
Fosfru
Lìn
リン
인
ฟอสฟอรัส
Photpho
磷
Posporo
Fosfor
Pūtūtae-whetū
Fosforus
ഫോസ്ഫറസ്
பொஸ்பரசு
Fosofo
Fosforase
Posfori
Fósforo
Phusphuru
Fosforimi
Fosforo
Fosforon
Pesticium
European phosphorus balance: uses and losses in agriculture & other sectors
1. European phosphorus balance: uses and losses in agriculture & other sectors
Kimo van Dijk
Researcher Nutrient management & phosphorus security
Wageningen University, kimo.vandijk@wur.nl
P-REX Summer School, Basel, Switzerland, 10 September 2014
2. Overview
Phosphorus (P) cycling, scarcity & price
Present P flows in Europe
Sustainable P use options in society
Local ‘waste’ supply & agricultural demand
Dynamic food system model
Future P use scenario analyses
Summary & conclusions
3. Geological versus anthropogenic cycles
RESOURCE RESERVES
SINKS
Society
Crops
Animals
Industry & retail
Consumers
Non- food
Losses
Inputs [90% fertilizer, and other mineral P use]
Geological cycle
Direct IMPACTS
Anthropogenic cycle
4. R/P ratio for P, K & micronutrients
A simplistic way of expressing resource scarcity R/P ratio = reserve / production
De Haes et al. 2012
9. Main sources of P-rock in the EU [Mt/yr]
30 years remaining for Finland at current rate of extraction, which is only 10 % of EU demand
De Ridder et al 2012
10. Animal feed P origin in EU-27 in 2005
Source: Miterra-Europe model, CAPRI & FAOSTAT data 2003-2005
11. Agronomic P balances in the EU
Annual regional agricultural P
balances [kg P/ha] for EU-15
in 2000
Estimated cumulative P balances [kg
P/ha] of EU countries during 1991–2005
Source: Csathó & Radimszky 2012
Source: Csathó &
Radimszky 2012
12. Average phosphate surplus in Dutch
agriculture 1880-2010
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Surplus, kg P2O5/ha
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Cumulative surplus, kg P
2
O
5
/ha
Annual
Cumulative
Target
2015
1 kg P = 2.29 kg P2O5
Ehlert et al. 2011
13. 0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Domestic food P supply [kg/ca/year]
Animal
Plant
Domestic food P supply in EU-27 in 2005
Domestic food P supply necessary to fullfill human dietary P intake requirements at consumption level
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)
Minimum P intake requirement
Mean EU P intake
Maximum P intake level
19. Potential phosphorus losses in society
Three ‘types’ of potential P losses:
●Sequestration: incineration, landfilling, co-firing or use in the cement industry
●Accumulation: in agricultural soils or the environment
●Export: flows with unclear destinations
Avoidable and unavoidable losses
Point and diffuse sources
Direct and indirect actors
20. Transition towards sustainable P use
•remove non-essential P inputs (e.g. detergents)
•match P requirements more closely (precision agriculture)
•utilise legacy P stores
Realign P inputs
•optimise input management
•minimise runoff and erosion
•strategic retention zones
Reduce P losses to water
•avoid wastage
•improve utilization efficiency
•adopt integrated production systems
Recycle P in bioresources
•recover P in societies' wastes
•produce fertilizer substitutes
Recover P in wastes
•influence dietary choice
•define end-user P requirements
•re-connect crop and animal production systems
Redefine P in the food chain
Withers, Van Dijk, et al. (submitted)
21. P recycling potential in EU-27
[Gg P/year]
Total
Recycled
Potential
Sewage sludge
297
115
182
Biodegradable solid waste
130
38
92
Meat & bone meal
128
6
122
Total (minimum)
427
153
274
Total (maximum)
555
160
396
Mineral fertiliser use
1448
Manure use
1763
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)
22. P2O5 contents of common ‘wastes’
[% P2O5]
Fresh matter
Dry matter
Ash
Mean
Mean
Mean
Meat & bone meal
9.5
9.7
33.1
Pig manure
0.4
5.0
18.8
Bio (kitchen) waste
0.4
0.6
17.1
Sewage sludge
6.5
6.9
15.7
Chicken manure
1.9
2.7
15.3
Green (garden) waste
0.2
0.3
9.7
Iron slag
5.6
Bark
0.10
0.11
3.0
Wood
0.05
0.07
2.6
Coal
0.1
0.1
0.5
23. Phosphorus (P) flows in Rotterdam city in 2011 related to households (HH, yellow) and non-households (NHH, blue) Quantities in tons P/year Uncertainty range in %
Source: Kirsimaa & van Dijk (2013). Urban farming in Rotterdam: an opportunity for sustainable phosphorus management. MSc thesis, Wageningen University
24. Destination
P flows from Rotterdam households
Tons P /year
% of total
Incineration
Sludge
261.4
44.9
Organic waste
122.9
21
Cat & other animal excreta
44.7
7.7
Textiles
11.2
1.9
Paper & carton
7.4
1.3
Household & sanitary paper
0.8
0.1
Wood
0.6
0.1
Environment
Dog excreta
61.4
10.6
Effluent wastewater
58.5
10.1
Compost
Garden waste
2.4
0.4
Organic waste
1.2
0.2
Bioenergy plant
Wood
1.4
0.2
Garden waste
1
0.2
Recycling & reuse
Paper & carton
4.2
0.7
Textiles
2.2
0.4
Wood
0.6
0.1
Total P quantity
582
100%
Source: Kirsimaa & van Dijk (2013). Urban farming in Rotterdam: an opportunity for sustainable phosphorus management. MSc thesis, Wageningen University
25. Source: Kirsimaa & van Dijk (2013). Urban farming in Rotterdam: an opportunity for sustainable phosphorus management. MSc thesis, Wageningen University
P losses from Rotterdam households
98.2%
0.6%
1.2%
Household P destinations
Lost
Reused
Recycled
21.5%
11.3%
45.7%
0.4%
10.2%
10.8%
Lost P destinations
Incineration of
organic waste
Incineration of non-
food solid waste
Incineration of
sludge
Biomass/energy
production
Effluent water to
surface water
Dog excreta left in
parks/incinerated
26. Linking Rotterdam P supply with demand
Supply (lost P households): 572 tons P /year
Urban farming area
●105 initiatives, each 0.3 ha = 105*0.3 = 32 ha
Potential P availability: 17,875 kg P/ha
Max. application limits for arable land (Dutch Government regulations): 19,984 ha required
Crop P demand based on highest and lowest P removal
Source: Kirsimaa & van Dijk (2013). Urban farming in Rotterdam: an opportunity for sustainable phosphorus management. MSc thesis, Wageningen University
27. Crop P demand based on crop removal
Crop type
P removal [kg/ha]
Urban farming crop P demand [tons P/year]
Required land to apply total lost P [ha]
Highest P removal
Fieldbiens
39
1.24
14,317
Lowest P removal
Brocolli
5
0.16
110,079
Most common consumed/grown crop
Grain crops
18
0.56
7,232
Source: Kirsimaa & van Dijk (2013). Urban farming in Rotterdam: an opportunity for sustainable phosphorus management. MSc thesis, Wageningen University
Total potential P supply (lost P) = 572 tons P/year
Total Rotterdam urban farming area = 32 ha
28. Crop P demand based on crop removal
Source: Kirsimaa & van Dijk (2013). Urban farming in Rotterdam: an opportunity for sustainable phosphorus management. MSc thesis, Wageningen University
Calculated range of land needed to host lost P
7 , 232 ha (highest P removal crops) – 110, 079 ha (lowest P removal crops)
Comparison: Present total green surface area : 12, 674 ha
29. Regional urban P management
Source: Kirsimaa & van Dijk (2013). Urban farming in Rotterdam: an opportunity for sustainable phosphorus management. MSc thesis, Wageningen University
30. Rotterdam seaport circular economy
Source: Port of Rotterdam/ Rabobank – Pathways to Circular Economy, Coert Beerman & Hans Smits
Source: Kate Royston: Robbee Smole – Sustainable Business Solutions, May 2012
Greenmills bio- refinery (closed loop bio-diesel and bio-gas; electricity and heat) at the Port of Amsterdam is supplying recovered phosphorus to a neighbouring ICI Fertilisers facility.
32. Objectives & research questions
To develop a dynamic model for the analysis of the effects of changes in drivers and nutrient management strategies on P dynamics in the food chain.
What would be the P dynamics & food production in EU- 27 in case of a stop of P import via
●Q1: mineral fertilizers?
●Q2: mineral fertilizers and animal feed?
Q3: What are effects of best management practices (BMPs) on food production and P use efficiency?
33. Dynamic Food System model
Mass balance principle
Data: Miterra-Europe, CAPRI, FAOSTAT, Eurostat, reports, articles and experts
EU-27 at country level, timesteps of one year
Entire food system + non-food
P imports, exports, losses and internal flows
Flows described dynamically as function of sector input
Crop P uptake as function of soil P stock and P application
35. Scenarios & best management practices
The scenarios are:
●BAU: present (~2005), Business as Usual
●S1: no P import via mineral fertilizer
●S2: no P import via fertilizer + feed + additives
●S3: as S2 + BMPs
The best management practices (BMPs) are 90 % less:
●biowaste + waste water P losses (HC)
●forestry sector losses (NF)
●slaughter waste losses (FP)
●stable manure losses (AP)
No changes in other drivers and factors, such as population, agricultural area, crop types etc.
36. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2005
2030
2055
2080
2105
2130
2155
2180
2205
2230
2255
2280
Average crop P uptake [kg P/ha/year]
BAU
SI
S2
S3
Per ha EU-27 crop P uptake per scenario for 2005-2300
50 %
25 %
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)
37. 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005
2030
2055
2080
2105
2130
2155
2180
2205
2230
2255
2280
Average soil P stock [kg P/ha]
BAU
SI
S2
S3
Per ha EU-27 soil P stock per scenario for 2005-2300
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)
38. 0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
France
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Ireland
Germany
Sweden
United Kingdom
Belgium
Czech Republic
Italy
Bulgaria
Malta
Denmark
Greece
Estonia
Spain
Romania
Netherlands
Portugal
Finland
Slovakia
Poland
Austria
Latvia
Hungary
Cyprus
Slovenia
BAU
S1
S2
S3
Per capita food P supply per Member State per scenario in 2050
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)
39. 0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2005
2030
2055
2080
2105
2130
2155
2180
2205
2230
2255
2280
Average food P supply [kg P/ca/year]
BAU
SI
S2
S3
Changes in per capita food P supply in EU-27 per scenario for 2005-2300
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)
40. 0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2005
2030
2055
2080
2105
2130
2155
2180
2205
2230
2255
2280
Average dry matter yield [kg P/ha/year]
BAU
SI
S2
S3
Changes in dry matter crop yield in EU-27 per scenario for 2005-2300
50 %
33 %
Van Dijk et al. (in preparation)
41. Conclusions for the present state
Europe is largely dependent on P imports via:
●Mineral fertilizers (60%), animal feed & additives (20%), food (10%) & non-food materials (10%)
Ongoing P accumulation in agricultural soils, especially in western Europe by P surplusses
Various recycling rates, generally low (except manure):
●Sewage sludge P recycling ranging from 0 - 90%
●Compost P re-use ranging from 0 - 70%
Significant P losses via:
●Waterways: sewage discharge, leaching & erosion
●Sequestration: incineration, landfilling, infrastructure
High potential to improve P use efficiency
42. Conclusions for future scenarios
Soil P is an important stock to take into account in P dynamics, because of its buffering capacity and large size (~150.000 Gg P)
A stop on P fertilizer import has a large effect on food production, mainly on the longer term
A stop on P import via fertilizer and animal feed makes the effect even more pronounced, causing a larger and earlier drop in food production
The effects can be mitigated by the implementation of best management practices in nutrient management
Additional data is necessary, especially for downscaling to the regional level
43. Thank you for your attention
Questions? Comments? Suggestions? kimo.vandijk@wur.nl / kimovandijk@xs4all.nl Twitter: @kimovandijk Website: kimovandijk.weebly.com
44. Additional literature and links
Presentation “Phosphorus use in Europe”, European Sustainable P conference, 6-7 March in Brussels: http://www.phosphorusplatform.eu/images/Presentation_KimovanDijk.pdf
Outcomes 2nd Scientific European Phosphorus Workshop in Wageningen: http://www.wageningenur.nl/sepw2013
Lesschen et al. 2013. Options for closing the phosphorus cycle in agriculture; Assessment of options for Northwest Europe and the Netherlands. edepot.wur.nl/289653
K.A. Wyant, J.R. Corman, and J.J. Elser. Phosphorus, Food, and Our Future. Oxford University Press, New York City, New York, USA. http://ukcatalogue.oup.com/product/9780199916832.do#.UcHr6fY6VVM
European Commission - Sustainable Phosphorus Use: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/research/newsalert/pdf/IR7.pdf
Dutch Nutrient Platform: www.nutrientenplatform.nl
European Sustainable Phosphorus Platform: www.phosphorusplatform.eu