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Predicting Milk Basis in the Southeast Federal Milk Order
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![Predicting Milk Basis in the Southeast Federal Milk Order John Campbell, Area Farm Management Specialist ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Southeast Milk Order Basis (Uniform and Class III Price for Same Month) Avg. STD Low High Jan 2.72 0.872 1.75 4.74 Feb 2.41 0.828 1.10 3.88 Mar 2.51 0.773 1.12 3.50 Apr 1.67 1.916 -2.94 3.51 May 1.99 1.162 -0.31 4.03 Jun 2.20 1.005 0.59 4.32 Jul 2.49 1.060 0.69 4.25 Aug 2.56 1.271 -0.26 4.04 Sep 2.30 0.826 1.35 3.70 Oct 2.68 0.967 1.68 4.66 Nov 3.33 1.319 1.84 5.57 Dec 2.11 1.288 0.89 5.14 Correlation of Milk Basis to Selected Variables Variable R-squared Value Previous Month Class III Current Month Class III Class III Price 0.04 0.17 Class I Percentage 0.06 0.001 Class III Percentage 0.01 0.07 Change in Class III from Previous Month 0.15 0.38 Frequency of Milk Basis Range Previous Month Class III Current Month Class III No. Pct. No. Pct. > $0 1 1 3 3 $0-$1 2 2 3 3 $1-$2 25 26 22 23 $2-$3 42 44 41 43 $3-$4 15 16 16 17 $4-$5 9 9 9 9 $5-$6 2 2 2 2 t Analysis of Milk Basis Previous Month Basis Calculation Versus Current Month Basis Calculation Two Tailed P Value Statistically Significant Confidence Interval t Value Standard Error of Difference Jan 0.8285 No 0.1250 0.2207 0.566 Feb 0.9287 No 0.0400 0.0911 0.439 Mar 0.7195 No -0.1775 0.3664 0.484 Apr 0.2462 No -0.9413 1.2104 0.778 May 0.5063 No -0.4363 0.6822 0.640 Jun 0.8673 No -0.1088 0.1702 0.639 Jul 0.7559 No -0.1687 0.3170 0.532 Aug 0.7905 No 0.1475 0.2708 0.545 Sep 0.1733 No -0.5888 1.4348 0.410 Oct 0.4332 No -0.3750 0.8069 0.465 Nov 0.2924 No -0.7213 1.0942 0.659 Dec 0.6031 No -0.3582 0.5319 0.674 Southeast Milk Order Basis (Uniform and Class III Price for Previous Month) Avg. STD Low High Jan 2.60 1.219 1.02 5.36 Feb 2.37 0.814 1.32 4.16 Mar 2.69 1.022 1.57 4.65 Apr 2.61 0.749 1.77 4.15 May 2.43 1.230 0.61 4.48 Jun 2.31 1.359 -0.47 4.41 Jul 2.66 0.927 1.42 4.77 Aug 2.42 0.678 1.32 3.49 Sep 2.89 0.705 1.85 4.03 Oct 2.31 0.760 0.80 3.29 Nov 2.60 1.411 1.33 4.76 Dec 2.87 1.235 1.97 5.94](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/campbell-john-nacaa-poster-1220535919413612-9/85/predicting-milk-basis-in-the-southeast-federal-milk-order-1-320.jpg)
