1. Easy Tips for Most Successful PPC
Forecasts
Krista Witt
Paid Media Manager | LiveArea/PFSweb

2. Forecasting:
Giving Up The Fear

3. Tell The Story
Number 1:

4. What’s in a Story
sto·ry1
/stôrē/
noun
1. an account of imaginary or real people and events told for entertainment.
"an adventure story"
synonyms: tale, narrative, account, anecdote; More
2. an account of past events in someone's life or in the evolution of
something.
"the story of modern farming"
people events
the evolution of
something.

5. What’s in a Story
A story provides meaning by taking a string of
events and adding them to their true but
unsuspecting sum.

6. Why Story?
We’re still hard wired to learn better if someone’s words have
emotion and meaning to them. The use of narrative helps our
brains to focus.

7. How?
What makes a SUCCESSFUL forecast….story
 Simple – Know Thy Audience
 Emotional – Make it relevant to the audience
 Truthful – Be upfront about assumptions
 Real – Base it off real data
 Valid – Show the numbers

8. How?
A US based Beauty Brand was based on finding balance in beauty.
Branded
Campaigns
Branded
Product
Campaigns
Generic
Campaigns

9. Variables Are Key
Number 2:

10. Data Sources
When it comes to data, Mass is Energy
 The Best – current and past account performance for each and
every metric
 Okay – current keyword list, use Adwords keyword volume
forecasts, and know sitewide Revenue metrics.
 Can work with – competitive tool to tell you potential keywords
on, and potential keywords competitors are on, adwords keyword
volume forecasts, and industry standard conversion rate data.

11. Making Assumptions
Data is rarely perfect. Assumptions are your safety net.
 Assumptions include the things you can and can’t control
 We can all have incorrect assumptions and THAT’S OKAY!
 Getting everyone onboard with your assumptions in the
beginning is key to getting buy in.

12. Seasonality Is Your Friend
Number 3:

13. Use Tools
Seasonality does exist, therefore it should always be part of
your forecast.
 Use any and every tool and data to determine seasonality for
your site.
 Exclude known influencers such as viral events, large one time
site promotions, etc.

14. Every Metric
Every metric is impacted by seasonality fluctuations
 Every metric should have a seasonality forecast
Fiscal Month
Impression
Modifier
CTR
Modifier
CPC
Modifier
CR
Modifier
AOV
Modifier
Base Metrics
January -35% 0% 0% 0% 0%
February -18% 18% -5% 18% 5%
March 7% -7% -8% -7% -4%
April 10% -10% 10% -10% -5%
May -20% 20% -2% 15% 3%
June -15% 15% 5% 10% 2%
July -10% 10% -14% 10% 2%
August 5% -5% 1% -5% -3%
September 10% 10% -1% 5% 2%
October 10% 10% 4% 10% 4%
November 50% 50% 18% 20% 8%
December -50% -50% 6% -50% -10%

15. Every Metric
 Every component in your seasonality, whether it’s week,
month, or quarter, should have a % change field.
 But KISS – Keep It Simple Stupid
 Email me at kwitt@pfsweb.com for this tool
Fiscal Month Dates # of Weeks # of Days Spend Revenue ROAS AOV Orders CR CPC Clicks CTR Impressions
Base Metrics 56.00$ 4.00% 0.60$ 2.00% 10,800,000
January 1/3 - 2/6 5 35 84,240$ 314,496$ 3.73$ 56.00$ 5,616 4.00% 0.60$ 140,400 2.00% 7,020,000
February 2/7 - 3/5 4 28 77,435$ 377,026$ 4.87$ 58.80$ 6,412 4.72% 0.57$ 135,851 2.36% 5,756,400
March 3/10 - 4/2 4 28 70,891$ 334,962$ 4.73$ 56.45$ 5,934 4.39% 0.52$ 135,185 2.19% 6,159,348
April 4/3 - 5/7 5 35 77,201$ 283,519$ 3.67$ 53.63$ 5,287 3.95% 0.58$ 133,834 1.98% 6,775,283
May 5/8 - 6/4 4 28 72,467$ 322,403$ 4.45$ 55.23$ 5,837 4.54% 0.56$ 128,480 2.37% 5,420,226
June 6/5 - 7/2 4 28 74,279$ 353,584$ 4.76$ 56.34$ 6,276 5.00% 0.59$ 125,589 2.73% 4,607,192
July 7/3 - 8/6 5 35 63,175$ 392,779$ 6.22$ 57.47$ 6,835 5.50% 0.51$ 124,333 3.00% 4,146,473
August 8/7 - 9/3 4 28 63,391$ 361,040$ 5.70$ 55.74$ 6,477 5.22% 0.51$ 124,023 2.85% 4,353,797
September 9/4 - 10/1 4 28 75,872$ 467,874$ 6.17$ 56.86$ 8,229 5.48% 0.51$ 150,067 3.13% 4,789,176
October 10/2 - 11/5 5 35 95,462$ 647,661$ 6.78$ 59.13$ 10,953 6.03% 0.53$ 181,582 3.45% 5,268,094
November 11/6 - 12/3 4 28 253,572$ 1,888,574$ 7.45$ 63.86$ 29,573 7.24% 0.62$ 408,558 5.17% 7,902,141
December 12/4 - 12/31 4 28 67,122$ 212,486$ 3.17$ 57.48$ 3,697 3.62% 0.66$ 102,140 2.59% 3,951,071
TOTAL 1,075,107$ 5,956,404$ 5.54$ 58.90$ 101,126 5.35% 0.57$ 1,890,043 2.86% 66,149,201

16. Presenting:
The Meeting Sandwich
Number 4:

17. Tasty Sandwich
Like a Good Story, and a Yummy Sandwich, a Meeting should
have a beginning, middle, and end.
 Bread = Goals
 Start and end with stating the goals
 Crunchy Stuff = Strategy and Assumptions
 Meat (or bean patty if you’re a vegetarian) = actual numbers

18. ABT: Always Be Testing
Number 5:

19. Follow Up & Realign
“When you make an assumption, you are preparing room for
error.” – Toba Beta
 Check your assumptions
 Adjust your forecast as new information is available
 Communicate changes
 Rinse and repeat

20. Give Up The Fear
Forecasting’s goal is
 To provide a benchmark
 To provide a tool to measure progress toward
 To provide a tool to tell the story of our account
 NOT to hit every number right
 NOT to be a fortune teller

21. Questions

22. Thank you!
Krista Witt
Paid Media Manager | LiveArea/PFSweb