2. Factors to Consider When Allocating 1st Half of
Month Features:
₋ Government Assistance (S.N.A.P.)
₋ Category Seasonality
₋ Distribution of Sales in Month
₋ Penetration and Size
4. SNAP is key reason we see increases in grocery sales
during the beginning of the month
60-80% of food stamps are
depleted within the first
three days of the month
Government Assistance dollars are loaded
at the beginning of the month
Products show a higher percent of sales with
Food Stamps during the beginning of the month.
Source: Government Assistance/Food Stamps In-Depths Fusion 4/10, Retailer SNAP tender data
42.4%
37.4%
18.0%
9.2%
1st Week 2nd Week 3rd Week 4th Week
% Paid for from S.N.A.P. for a
Product
5. Government Assistance Eligible HHs are 20% of Total HHs
in the Nationally…
Percentage of HHs
Total U.S. – All Outlets
GA
Eligble
HH
20.2%
Other HH
79.8%
…and Growing:
Up 1.5% vs. YAGO (Over 356K new HHs eligible for Assistance)
23.9MM HH in the Nationally are Eligible for Government Assistance
23.9 MM HHs
94.4 MM HHs
Other HH
-134,080
GA
Eligible
356,645
Total HH,
222,565
HH Change vs. YA
Total U.S. – All Outlets
+0.2%
-0.1%
+1.5%
Source: IRI S3 Panel Data 52 Weeks Ending September 9th, 2012 (Total U.S. – All Outlets)
8. 116
105
110 111
103 102
99
108
105
102
93
108
104 106
101
Bfst
Sandwich
es
Waffles
Snacks
Pies
Swt
Goods
Novelties
Ice
Cream
Potatoes
Meat
IQF
Poultry
PlnVeg
Prp
Poultry
MSM
Pizza
SSM
All Frozen Categories are Not Equal with the
S.N.A.P. Shopper
o Where applicable, categories such as Prepared Poultry, Breakfast,
Snacks and Potatoes should be featured in the 1st half of the month
o These over-index with the S.N.A.P. shopper
Government Assistance (S.N.A.P.) Buyer Index by Frozen Category
Total U.S. – All Outlets
MealsComponentsDessertsBreakfast Snacks
Source: IRI S3 Panel Data 52 Weeks Ending September 9th, 2012 (Total U.S. – All Outlets)
9. S.N.A.P. Shoppers Over-Index in the
Economy Segments
S.N.A.P. Shopper Spend Relatively
More on Economy SSM
Economy is the Most Important SSM Segment to the
S.N.A.P. Eligible Shopper
Of S.N.A.P. Eligible Shoppers
dollar spending is Economy
Meals/Pot Pies
127
77
99 95
154
Economy
Meals
Better for You Premium
Regular
Prem Pot Pies Econ Pot Pies
Source: IRI S3 Panel Data 52 Weeks Ending September 9th, 2012 (Total U.S. – All Outlets)
Government Assistance (S.N.A.P.) Buyer
Index
35%
Dollar Sales
19% More Buyers than
Edible Average for
Meals
Economy
Meals
30%
Better for
You
29%
Premium
Regular
33%
Prem Pot
Pies
3%
Econ Pot Pies
5%
10. 168
145 141
121
99 96 96
75 74 71
Kid Cuisine Banquet Hungryman Michelina's Marie
Callender's
Stouffers Boston Mkt Lean Cuisine Healthy Choice WW Smart
One's
Economy Brands Over-Index with S.N.A.P.
Shoppers
o These Economy Brands should be featured in the first half of the Month to
capture S.N.A.P. dollars
o Better for You indexes poorly with the S.N.A.P. eligible shopper
Government Assistance (S.N.A.P.) Buyer Index by SSM Brand
Total U.S. – All Outlets
Economy Brands Premium Regular Better for You
Source: IRI S3 Panel Data 52 Weeks Ending September 9th, 2012 (Total U.S. – All Outlets)
11. Capture S.N.A.P. Dollar Sales by:
₋ Featuring categories where they over-index in the 1st half
of the month
₋ These categories provide convenient products at a value
price such as:
₋ Breakfast Sandwiches & Waffles
₋ Economy Single and Multi Serve Meals
₋ Prepared Chicken
₋ Potatoes
₋ Move Economy SSM brand features to the first 2 weeks of
the month
₋ All 4 brands (Banquet, Kid Cuisine, Swanson and Michelina’s)
over-index with S.N.A.P. eligible homes
13. Allocate More 1st Half Features to Categories in the
Key Seasonal Months
Source: IRI 52 Current 208 Weeks Ending September 23rd, 2012 (Total U.S. - MULO)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Single Serve Meals KEY KEY KEY KEY KEY KEY
Multi-Serve Meals KEY KEY KEY KEY KEY KEY
Bread KEY KEY KEY KEY
Potatoes KEY KEY KEY KEY
Plain Vegetables KEY KEY KEY KEY KEY KEY
Prep Vegetables KEY KEY KEY KEY KEY KEY
Meat KEY KEY KEY KEY
Prep Poultry KEY KEY
IQF Poultry KEY KEY
Ice Cream KEY KEY KEY KEY
Novelties KEY KEY KEY KEY
Fz Pies KEY KEY
Sweet Goods KEY KEY KEY KEY
Cheesecakes KEY KEY
Pizza KEY KEY KEY
Snacks/Appetizers KEY KEY KEY
Bfst Sausage KEY KEY KEY KEY
Bfst Sandwiches KEY KEY KEY KEY KEY
SpringWinter Summer Fall
KEY Strong Seasonality
Off-Season Categories can go into the Back Half of the Month, if not
highly driven by S.N.A.P. Shoppers
14. Economy & Premium Show Less Seasonality than
Better for You & Pot Pies
o Jan-April is the key time for Better for You segment
o Summer months are slower for all SS Meal Segments
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Pot Pies Premium Regular Better for You Economy
Source: IRI 52 Current 208 Weeks Ending September 23rd, 2012 (Total U.S. - MULO)
Dollar Sales Index by Month
Total U.S. – Multi-Outlet
15. Stronger 1st Half Categories
Categories which can Move Features
to Back Half of Month
Default to Categories with Stronger Week 1 & 2
Indexes when Determining First Half Features
111 Dollar Index = 11% more dollars than
average weekly sales
o Pies (111)
o Snacks (110)
o Prep Chicken (109)
o Bfst Sandwiches (109)
o Bfst Sausage (109)
o Prep Vegetables (108)
o Multi-Serve Meals (107)
o Pizza (106)
o Single Serve Meals (105)
o Novelties (97)
o Ice Cream (98)
o Juice (101)
o Fruit (102)
o Sweet Goods (104)
Lower Index equates to more equitable distribution of dollar sales
throughout the month
Source: IRI 52 Current 208 Weeks Ending September 23rd, 2012 (Total U.S. - MULO)
16. 106 105
109
105
100
107
100 100
97
95
98
9394
97
94
Premium Better for You Economy
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Economy SSM Sales Skew Toward Beginning of
Month
111 Dollar Index = 11% more dollars than average weekly sales
o Better for You has the most even spread across the month
o Premium Regular skews early in month, but not to the extent of
Economy
Average Dollar Sales Index by Week of Month
Total U.S. – Multi-Outlet
Source: IRI 52 Current 208 Weeks Ending September 23rd, 2012 (Total U.S. - MULO)
17. Use Seasonality and Volume by Week Indexes to
Make the Most of Feature Ads:
₋ Featuring categories where they over-index in the 1st half of
the month
₋ Keep categories with higher sales in first 2 weeks of the month
features in the 1st Half
₋ Breakfast Sandwiches & Waffles
₋ Economy Single and Multi Serve Meals
₋ Prepared Chicken
₋ Potatoes
₋ Categories with more even sales distribution throughout
month can be Featured in Back Half of Month
₋ Ex: Ice Cream, Novelties, Meat, Juice, Fruit, etc…
₋ These categories suffer less drop in sales in Last Half
₋ Can move to 1st Half in periods of strong seasonality
18. % HH Penetration
Single Serve Meals Remain one of the Most
Important Categories in the Frozen Department…
1. Ice Cream
2. Plain Veg
3. Novelties
4. SS Meals
(71.4%)
5. Pizza
6. IQF Poultry
7. Seafood
…#1 in dollars, #4 in HH Penetration and #2 in trips
Dollar Sales Trips
1. SS Meals
($5.4B)
2. Ice Cream
3. Pizza
4. Seafood
5. IQF Poultry
6. Novelties
7. Prep Poultry
1. Ice Cream
2. SS Meals
(682MM)
3. Plain Veg
4. Novelties
5. Pizza
6. Breakfast
Food
7. IQF Poultry
Source: IRI S3 Panel Data 52 Weeks Ending September 9th, 2012 (Total U.S. – All Outlets)
20. 3.1
5.4
18.4
4.1
7.2
9.3
Premium & Value BFY & Value Premium & BFY
Best in Class Worst in Class Note: Bundled events occur when sub-segments are promoted with the
same vehicle during the same week within an retailer
Average # of Bundled Weeks (SSM) 1
Source: 1) IRI 52 weeks ending 01/2012
2) Kantar Retail ShopperGenetics® 52 weeks ending 09/2011
Bundle Premium & Healthy to Drive
Increased Sales Velocity
Bundling
encourages
Shopper to buy
both segments
on one trip
21. Source: 1) IRI 52 weeks ending 01/2012
2) Kantar Retail ShopperGenetics® 52 weeks ending 09/2011
Frozen Meal Category Spend 1
$99
Bundling drives cross-purchase and larger basket
rings (+25%), putting more money in the bank
BFY & Premium
Buyer
Premium Only
Buyers $45
Better for You Only
Buyers $34
23. Allocate 1st Half of Month Features to:
₋ Over-Indexing S.N.A.P. categories
₋ S.N.A.P. payments are generally distributed by 15th of the
month at the latest
₋ Categories with Strong Seasonality for the Month
₋ Categories with higher percentage of dollar sales in 1st
Half of the Month
₋ Reserve more back half features for categories whose
volume is spread more evenly
₋ Categories with High HH Penetration and Scale
24. Single Serve Meal Principles:
₋ Economy brands
₋ Feature in 1st half of month – strong brands for S.N.A.P. consumers
₋ Feature one brand per week (2 features per month)
₋ Better for You brands
₋ Feature all 3 brands in 1st half of month during Diet season (Jan-Apr)
₋ One brand per week
₋ Bundle with a Premium brand (ex. Marie w/ H.C., Stouffers w/ Lean Cuisine)
₋ Can go to Back Half during summer months
₋ Move to 1st Half November/December (Holiday categories should dominate Back
Half)
₋ Premium Regular Brands
₋ Same strategy as BFY
Caveat:
o SSM is an important category for the health of the Frozen Department –
BFY/Premium Features would still be better in the 1st Half all year
o Move up in month if ad space is available
25. Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31
Single Serve Meal Features Should be in
1st Half of Month (January)
Source: IRI Current 208 Weeks Ending September 23rd, 2012
(Plains + Great Lakes - MULO)
BackHalfofMonth:
Ice Cream Novelties
1stHalfofMonth:
o One Economy brand should be featured each
week
o Capture S.N.A.P. sales
o Better for You brand should be featured to take
advantage of dieting season – all 3 brands
o Bundle Premium with BFY to drive increased basket
ring
o Back half of month used for out of season categories
and pizza & appetizers for Super Bowl
Meat Sweet Goods & Pies
Fruit & Juices
Pizza
Snacks/Appetizers
Potatoes
Prep Chicken
Vegetables
Multi-Serve Meals
Bundle Bundle
Economy
January
26. Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31
Same as January except Snacks Move
to 1st Half of Month (February - March)
Source: IRI Current 208 Weeks Ending September 23rd, 2012
(Plains + Great Lakes - MULO)
BackHalfofMonth:
Ice Cream Novelties
1stHalfofMonth:
o Snacks & Appetizers moves up to 1st half of
the month
o Strong Seasonality and over-index with
S.N.A.P. Shopper
o Continue to Feature Better for You to
capture dieting season – one brand per
week
o Bundle with Premium
Meat Sweet Goods & Pies
Snacks/Appetizers
Pizza
Fruit & Juices
Potatoes
Prep Chicken
Vegetables
Multi-Serve Meals
Bundle Bundle
Economy
February
March
27. Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31
Pies Move to 1st Half for Easter Holiday,
MSM can go to Back Half
Source: IRI Current 208 Weeks Ending September 23rd, 2012
(Plains + Great Lakes - MULO)
BackHalfofMonth:
Ice Cream Novelties
1stHalfofMonth:
o Economy brands to capture S.N.A.P.
shoppers
o Dieting still a factor as weather warms –
continue to feature the BFY brands
o Pies sell well against Easter holiday; while
MSM sales drop off with warmer temps
Meat Multi-Serve Meals
Pizza
Fruit & Juices
Potatoes
Prep Chicken
Vegetables
Sweet Goods & Pies
Snacks/Appetizers
Bundle Bundle
Economy
April
28. Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31
Premium & Better for You Brand Features
Can Move to Back Half of Month
Source: IRI Current 208 Weeks Ending September 23rd, 2012
(Plains + Great Lakes - MULO)
BackHalfofMonth:
Ice Cream Novelties
1stHalfofMonth:
o Non-Economy SSM could move to back half
as sales slow in summer months
o Due to size of SSM, one BFY & Premium bundle
could stay in 1st Half
o Ice Cream, Novelties & Meat are seasonal in
the summer months – can move to 1st half
o Sweet Goods & Pies sales slow after Easter
holiday
Meat
Sweet Goods & Pies
Pizza
Snacks/Appetizers
Potatoes
Prep Chicken
Vegetables
Multi-Serve Meals
Economy
Bundle Bundle
Fruit & Juices
May -
August
29. Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31
Weather Changes Increase MSM Seasonality
and Decrease Ice Cream & Novelties
Source: IRI Current 208 Weeks Ending September 23rd, 2012
(Plains + Great Lakes - MULO)
BackHalfofMonth:
Ice Cream
Novelties
1stHalfofMonth:
o With the onset of cooler weather, Ice Cream & Novelties
are less seasonal and can move to Back Half
o Multi-Serve Meals sales spike up and should move to
1st Half
o Economy continues to be featured early to capitalize
on S.N.A.P.
o BFY/Premium Regular can be in the back half or if ad
space is available the 1st Half (sales rebound from
summer lows)
Meat
Sweet Goods & PiesCheesecakes
Pizza
Snacks/Appetizers
Potatoes
Prep Chicken
Vegetables
Multi-Serve Meals
Economy
Bundle Bundle
September
October
30. Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31
Pull SSM Features to 1st Half, Reserving
Back Half for Holiday Categories
Source: IRI Current 208 Weeks Ending September 23rd, 2012
(Plains + Great Lakes - MULO)
BackHalfofMonth:
Ice Cream
Novelties
1stHalfofMonth:
o Pizza, BFY and Premium SSM should be
featured in 1st half – not seasonal to Holidays
o Keep holiday categories in Back Half
o Feature desserts in the back half to align with
Holiday seasonality
o Vegetables & Meat (Holiday Meals)
o Snacks & Appetizers stay in back half for New
Year’s
Meat
Sweet Goods & Pies
Cheesecakes
Pizza
Snacks/Appetizers
Vegetables
Multi-Serve Meals
Economy
Bundle Bundle
Potatoes
Prep Chicken
Holiday Meals
Holiday Desserts
November
December
Editor's Notes
Speaker Notes:
Focus Groups were completed in April of this year to understand the shopping behavior of the GA household and what we learned was that when these shoppers receive their SNAP funds (1st 2 weeks of the month), they will spend the majority of those funds within three days. Their pantry, refrigerator, and freezer are empty and they are looking to restock. This is evident when you look at the % of sales being sold on Food Stamps. During the first week this product (Blue Bonnet) will have about 42% of its sales being purchased with SNAP funds…..by the last week of the month only 9% of sales are with SNAP funds.
This shows the importance of the first two weeks of the month to capture sales of the SNAP Shopper.
Calculations:
% paid for from Snap = dollars paid with Snap card / total dollars
Categories not shown in chart:
Breakfast Sausage: 106
Breakfast Entrées 112
Prepared Veg: 93
Bread: 105
Cheesecakes: 109
Seafood: 99
Average of Week 1 & 2 average weekly sales index
Key Idea:
Best-in-class accounts bundle premium and BFY single serve meals with display support to drive performance.
Encourages shoppers to purchase both sub-segments on the same trip.
Shoppers who purchase both BFY and premium single-serve spend more on the frozen meals category than all shoppers who buy only one sub-segment. (25% more - $99 vs. $79)
Support:
Best-in-class accounts promote BFY and premium meals together twice as many weeks as Worst-in-class accounts (18 versus 9). This is not due to more sub-segments bundling overall in Best-in-class accounts: Worst-in-class accounts actually bundle each sub-segment more frequently with the Value sub-segment. This is an opportunity not just to increase number of bundled promotions, but to shift the focus.
When bundling any two sub-segments overall, Best-in-class accounts are also almost three times as likely to bundle with feature and display support, and significantly less likely to focus on feature only support. This shows an opportunity to add display support to current feature only bundles.
Currently, of shoppers purchasing in the premium and/or BFY single serve segment over the course of the year, 29% purchase premium only, 23% purchase BFY only, and 48% (nearly half) purchase across both. However, on a given trip, the percent of shoppers that purchase both shrinks to 8%.
This shows an opportunity to cross-promote the sub-segments to encourage shoppers who are already interested in both sub-segments to purchase them together in the same basket.
Shoppers who purchase only BFY single-serve meals spend an average of $34.42 annually, or about $8.83 per trip. Similarly, those who purchase only premium single-serve meals spend, a slightly higher, $45.11 on the frozen meals category annually, or $9.71 per trip. Shoppers who purchase both of these categories over the course of the year spend an average of $17.00 per trip on frozen meals. Additionally, their annual category spend is 35% higher than the total spend of those shoppers who purchase only premium or only BFY.
Sales Note:
An event is considered bundled when sub-segments are promoted with the same vehicle (i.e. both on display, or both on feature) during the same week within a retailer.
Best-in-Class retailers are defined as the top 25% of accounts in frozen meals category growth and velocity. These accounts also drive total frozen performance. Conversely, Worst-in-Class retailers are comprised of the bottom 20% of accounts in category growth and velocity.
Buyer overlap looks at each shopper’s purchases over the course of 52 weeks. Basket overlap looks at each shopper’s purchases on any given trip to the store.
Source:
IRI 52 weeks ending 9/2011 & Kantar Retail ShopperGenetics® 52 weeks ending 09/2011
Potatoes, Prp Chicken are good SNAP categories and are in season.
Vegetables and Multi-Serve Meals are in season
Snacks/Appetizers & Pizza in the Back Half for Super Bowl
Ice Cream & Novelties are out of season in Winter
Fruit & Juices are small and sales are distributed evenly throughout the month
Potatoes, Prp Chicken are good SNAP categories and are in season.
Vegetables and Multi-Serve Meals are in season
Snacks/Appetizers & Pizza in the Back Half for Super Bowl
Ice Cream & Novelties are out of season in Winter
Fruit & Juices are small and sales are distributed evenly throughout the month
Desserts are more important seasonally driven by the Easter Holiday
As the weather warms people use fewer MS Meals
Prep Chicken and Potatoes still strong with SNAP consumers.
Strong Seasonality: - Move to 1st Half for Warmer weather
Ice Cream, Novelties, Meat
Strong with SNAP:
Potatoes
Snacks & Appetizers
Both:
Prep Chicken
Potatoes, Prep Chicken are good SNAP categories and are in season.
Vegetables index relatively high in the first half of the month
Multi-Serve Meals are in season
Ice Cream & Novelties are out of season in Fall months
SSM Meals move to 1st Half – Leave ad space in back Half for Holiday categories
Snacks/Appetizers in the Back Half for Super Bowl
Merchandise Holiday categories in the Back Half:
Pies need to be merchandised the 2 weeks before Thanksgiving and the week of Christmas – both in back half of month
Vegetables, Potatoes and Meat – Holiday Meal components
Ice Cream & Novelties are out of season in Winter
