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Practice Day Presentation 2010

The document analyzes Ireland's economic performance in 2010. It shows that while consumption and investment continued declining in the first three quarters of 2009, exports remained relatively stable. The sectors hit hardest by the recession were building/construction and agriculture. The largest export markets were the US, Belgium, and UK, though exports declined to most countries. NAMA is expected to pay €54 billion to acquire €77 billion in bank loans now valued at €47 billion, representing a 30% haircut. AIB estimates it will transfer €23 billion in loans to NAMA and receive €19 billion in return, an 18% discount.

Business◦Technology◦
Turning the Corner? THE IRISH ECONOMY IN 2010 Seamus Coffey March 2010
Turning the corner?
Components of GDP Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Consumption -2.1% -6.0% +0.9% -0.7% Investment -22.0% -14.4% +0.5% -11.0% Government +0.5% +0.1% -1.5% -0.9% Exports -1.4% -0.8% +0.1% -0.6% Imports -5.1% -3.2% +0.1% -4.7%
Economic Activity by Sector 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 Other Services (including rent) -1.3% -1.0% -0.9% -0.2% Industry & Utilities -12.9% +8.7% -0.9% +3.0% Building & Construction -10.4% -16.0% -7.6% -11.2% Public Administration & Defence -0.3% -1.4% -2.0% -1.3% Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries -10.7% +13.7% -0.2% -4.1% Transport and Communications -2.7% -4.4% -0.4% -2.0%
 
 
 
 
 
Commodity Value of Exports, €millions % of Exports Change on 2008 Food and live animals 5,695.1 7.4% -12.9% Beverages and tobacco 981.4 1.3% -14.6% Crude materials (inedible) except fuels 833.7 1.1% -32.8% Mineral fuels 552 0.7% -30.7% Animal and vegetable oils 17.7 0.0% -55.6% Chemicals & related products 44,388.8 57.3% +8.4% Manufactured goods 1,144.2 1.5% -26.8% Machinery & transport equipment 12,530.9 16.2% -25.2% Miscellaneous manufactured goods 8,374.2 10.8% +3.3% Other and unclassified 3,015.1 3.9% +20.4% Total 77,533.0 100.0% -2.6%
 
Country Jan-Nov 2008 Jan-Nov 2009 % Change % Exports USA 15,344.8 16,653.7 +8.5% 21.5% Belgium 11,350.4 13,859.1 +22.1% 17.9% Great Britain 13,108.4 11,233.4 -14.3% 14.5% Germany 5,565.6 4,388.2 -21.2% 5.7% France 4,557.1 4,228.5 -7.2% 5.5% Spain 3,284.7 3,207.1 -2.4% 4.1% Netherlands 2,773.6 2,590.9 -6.6% 3.3% Italy 2,819.0 2,586.7 -8.2% 3.3% Switzerland 2,378.1 2,261.7 -4.9% 2.9% China 2,198.5 2,175.9 -1.0% 2.8% Japan 1,559.8 1,585.7 +1.7% 2.0% Northern Ireland 1,451.2 1,157.1 -20.3% 1.5% Other EU 4,596.0 3,912.3 -14.9% 5.0% Other Countries 8,649.0 7,692.7 -11.1% 9.9% Total 79,636.2 77,533.0 -2.6% 100.0%
BaNAMArama NAMA is TOSIT Paying €54 billion to buy €77 billion of loans now “worth” €47 billion. A 30% ‘haircut’ on the LTEV (Long Term Economic Value) What do the banks say? Answers from AIB 2009 Annual Report € 23 billion loans to be transferred to NAMA Expected to receive €19 billion for these ‘assets’ This an 18% discount on the amount of the loans.