Practice Day Presentation 2010
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The document analyzes Ireland's economic performance in 2010. It shows that while consumption and investment continued declining in the first three quarters of 2009, exports remained relatively stable. The sectors hit hardest by the recession were building/construction and agriculture. The largest export markets were the US, Belgium, and UK, though exports declined to most countries. NAMA is expected to pay €54 billion to acquire €77 billion in bank loans now valued at €47 billion, representing a 30% haircut. AIB estimates it will transfer €23 billion in loans to NAMA and receive €19 billion in return, an 18% discount.
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Ageas reported strong results for the first three quarters of 2014, with insurance net profit up 16% to EUR 579 million driven by positive results in the third quarter. Gross inflows grew 10% to EUR 19.5 billion, with strong growth in Asia and Continental Europe offsetting declines in Belgium and the UK. While the group net profit declined 45% to EUR 282 million due to losses in the general account, shareholders' equity reached EUR 9.9 billion and insurance solvency ratios remained high at over 200%.
ACCIONA Q1 2015 Results Report
The document reports on ACCIONA Group's Q1 2015 results. Key points include:
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Ireland still faces constraints on its public finances from deficits and high debt levels, though debt is falling. While expenditure remains high, approximately 80% of corporation tax revenue comes from multinational corporations, highlighting Ireland's vulnerability. To better prepare for economic downturns, fiscal policy should assess balances and debt levels based on GNP rather than GDP, set aside corporate tax revenues equivalent to half the tax rate in a stability fund, and allow withdrawals from this fund during periods of low growth.
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The document discusses Ireland's growing public debt crisis. It estimates that Ireland's general government debt will reach approximately €250 billion by 2014, up drastically from €47 billion in 2007. This growth is primarily due to large budget deficits from 2008-2011, billions borrowed to recapitalize banks, and promissory notes issued to distressed financial institutions. While some assets may offset this debt, sustainability concerns remain due to risks of further bank losses, deficit overruns, and debt interest costs totaling billions annually. The outlook remains uncertain depending on maintaining deficit reduction and economic recovery.
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1) Professor Morgan Kelly warned in several Irish Times articles between 2006-2011 that Ireland's public debt crisis could result in national bankruptcy as property prices collapsed, unemployment rose, and bank losses mounted.
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Practice Day Presentation 2010
- 1. Turning the Corner? THE IRISH ECONOMY IN 2010 Seamus Coffey March 2010
- 3. Components of GDP Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Consumption -2.1% -6.0% +0.9% -0.7% Investment -22.0% -14.4% +0.5% -11.0% Government +0.5% +0.1% -1.5% -0.9% Exports -1.4% -0.8% +0.1% -0.6% Imports -5.1% -3.2% +0.1% -4.7%
- 4. Economic Activity by Sector 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 Other Services (including rent) -1.3% -1.0% -0.9% -0.2% Industry & Utilities -12.9% +8.7% -0.9% +3.0% Building & Construction -10.4% -16.0% -7.6% -11.2% Public Administration & Defence -0.3% -1.4% -2.0% -1.3% Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries -10.7% +13.7% -0.2% -4.1% Transport and Communications -2.7% -4.4% -0.4% -2.0%
- 10. Commodity Value of Exports, €millions % of Exports Change on 2008 Food and live animals 5,695.1 7.4% -12.9% Beverages and tobacco 981.4 1.3% -14.6% Crude materials (inedible) except fuels 833.7 1.1% -32.8% Mineral fuels 552 0.7% -30.7% Animal and vegetable oils 17.7 0.0% -55.6% Chemicals & related products 44,388.8 57.3% +8.4% Manufactured goods 1,144.2 1.5% -26.8% Machinery & transport equipment 12,530.9 16.2% -25.2% Miscellaneous manufactured goods 8,374.2 10.8% +3.3% Other and unclassified 3,015.1 3.9% +20.4% Total 77,533.0 100.0% -2.6%
- 12. Country Jan-Nov 2008 Jan-Nov 2009 % Change % Exports USA 15,344.8 16,653.7 +8.5% 21.5% Belgium 11,350.4 13,859.1 +22.1% 17.9% Great Britain 13,108.4 11,233.4 -14.3% 14.5% Germany 5,565.6 4,388.2 -21.2% 5.7% France 4,557.1 4,228.5 -7.2% 5.5% Spain 3,284.7 3,207.1 -2.4% 4.1% Netherlands 2,773.6 2,590.9 -6.6% 3.3% Italy 2,819.0 2,586.7 -8.2% 3.3% Switzerland 2,378.1 2,261.7 -4.9% 2.9% China 2,198.5 2,175.9 -1.0% 2.8% Japan 1,559.8 1,585.7 +1.7% 2.0% Northern Ireland 1,451.2 1,157.1 -20.3% 1.5% Other EU 4,596.0 3,912.3 -14.9% 5.0% Other Countries 8,649.0 7,692.7 -11.1% 9.9% Total 79,636.2 77,533.0 -2.6% 100.0%