Tiger Fund Tech Sector Research Overweights Growth
1. 1
Tiger Fund Sector Research
Date: 12/1/2016
Names: Jason Wyman
Sector: Technology
Circle One: Underweight Equal Weight Overweight
Current Weight (%): 20.02% Benchmark Weight (%): 19.17%
How did it change from last semester?
Last Semester’s Weight (%): 20.43% Benchmark Weight (%): 19.90%
The portfolio changed because we took profits on a few trades. The Fin 7845 & 3845 Tech Team members just
reallocated funds within different sector industries to position the tiger fund to participant in the growth we see
coming industry.
What did you change?
Buy:
Qualcomm: equal weight 0.66%
IBM: underweight 0.55%, ½ the weight of the benchmark: 0.94%
Activision Blizzard: overweight 0.28%, Double the Benchmark: 0.14%
Intel: equal weight - 1.10%
Sell:
Apple: equal weight 4.03%
Alphabet C: equal weight 1.51%
Facebook: overweight 3.75%, Double the Benchmark: 1.75%
Industry Outlook
The outlook for the Technology sector and the Communications Technology industry includes: High-end smart
phone markets are slowing down, low end smart phone (below $250) were 60% of global shipments and will be
a problem for 264 smartphone vendors (too many), market appears ripe for shakeout of vendors. Artificial
Intelligence (AI) coupled with the proliferation of messaging apps are fueling the development of Chabot’s-
Software programs. These programs use messaging as the interface to carry out tasks like scheduling a meeting,
reporting weather, or helping users buy a pair of shoes. The immense potential has businesses like HP, 1-800-
Flowers & CNN starting to invest heavily in the bot-economy.
Industries with particularly strong growth include computer software and systems, production technology
equipment and communications systems. In the computer software and systems industry, companies like Google
are leading the way with connected home devices such as Google Home; which is pod like speaker that receives
commands and learns the user’s preferences for information. Facebook has tailored its ads through machine
learning to adapt specifically to what the user wants to see by suggesting related products or topics the user
2. 2
should like next. Salesforce.com recently acquired the AI developer of automated image recognition company
Metamind, ecommerce solutions platform Demandware, and integrated document platform company Quip; to
help further its growing position in Customer Relationship Management software that it supplies to its
customers via subscription model.
In the production technology equipment industry, Applied Materials supplies standardized as well as custom
semiconductor chips for companies such as Amazon, Google, and Apple. These chips are being used not only in
laptops (a mature market) but also growing markets including connected wearables such as the Apple Watch
and home devices such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. The growing market for these semiconductors
could make Applied Materials an attractive position for the Fund to own.
In the communications technology industry, AI and business intelligence systems sold by Qualcomm and Cisco
should offer growth prospects as they are adopted by companies who like the convenience and business
analytics and service that chatbots offer by harvesting valuable information from customer feedback and
learning how to make necessary changes to optimize the customer buying process. Qualcomm recently acquired
NXP Semiconductors, which is a leading company in making chips for the Internet of Things (IoT). This
acquisition helps position QCOM away from legacy smartphone chips and into the new frontier of the IoT. At
the time of this report, the acquisition had not yet closed.
The strategy for the tech sector is buying growth stocks before their promising new products become widely
adopted and integrated into the lives of users. We believe that continued loyal support by customers of highly
useful products offers the tech sector a unique position in terms of convincing customers to potentially change
their habits and routines to include new tech products in their lives (i.e. Amazon Echo, Apple Watch). Our
sector group hopes to capitalize on the growth potential of AI, machine learning, wearables, custom
semiconductors, and electronic component growth. By buying these stocks in anticipation of wide adoption
of their latest innovations we hope to become widespread adoption by consumers. Since most of the companies
in our sector have various business segments encompassing upcoming tech such AI, IoT, cloud services
connected home and are not precisely focused on one of the growing segments, we plan on carefully considering
our position in each.
Reasons for Sector Weighting:
Fastest growing sector in the fund
Holds two largest and most profitable companies (Apple and Facebook)
Benefits from consumer discretionary income (smartphones, wearable tech, devices, etc.)
Innovation that introduces products to the market and trigger organic growth
Rapidly increasing demand for services such as mobile & internet advertising (Facebook), Cloud and
data analytics (Microsoft, Salesforce, IBM), fiber optics (Corning), Virtual reality, etc.
3. 3
Catalysts for changing the current weighting in the future:
Decreased demand for company key products
Decreasing or slowing online and global ad revenue
Maturing smartphone market
Cloud Computing
Continued macroeconomic downturns in the PC market
Data security and encryption laws
Companies “over-diversifying” out of their core competencies
Rebound of semi-conductors due to new technologies requiring those inputs
Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning
Shifting resources from PC & mobile to Internet of Things (IoT)
Connect Home, Connected Business, Connected Industrial industries
Infrastructure & Transportation
Autonomous driving vehicles
Mobile, online, and E-sports gaming
4. 4
Tiger Fund Industry Research
Date: 12/1/2016
Names: Jason Wyman
Sector: Technology, Industry Breakdown
Industry 1: Communications Technology
Over Equal Under
Current Weight (%): 0.66% Benchmark (%): 1.66%
Reason for Industry Weighting:
We want to take an equal weight position in Qualcomm to participant in the growing revenue share of
Software on Chips and there positioning to Autonomous vehicles
Positions in Industry: Qualcomm (QCOM) 0.66%
Catalyst for changing weighting:
Increasing company revenue share of SOC chips and chips for the Autonomous vehicles as well as the
supporting infrastructure. QCOM’s pending acquisition of NXP will make the company a leader in
autonomous vehicle and IoT chip manufacturing.
The Tiger Fund would do well to watch this company closely. 66% of QCOM revenue is derived from
legacy smartphone chips. If higher end smartphone sales reverse their decline, that is good news for
QCOM, however, if the decline is larger than anticipated and the vehicle/IoT chipset growth does not
outpace the decline, expect much volatility from this stock.
5. 5
Industry 2: Computer Services Software & Systems
Over Equal Under
Current Weight (%): 14.24% Benchmark (%): 10.24%
Reason for Industry Weighting: We want to overweight the sector to continue to participate with the
growth in some of the large companies like Microsoft, Facebook, & Google.
The outlook for the Technology sector and the Computer Services Software & Systems industry
includes: Google’s continued dominance in ad sales, YouTube, & cost controls to drive earnings as
future income streams develop. Lower ad prices with a shift to ad exchanges is a near term head wind for
Google and Facebook’s ad revenue. It's believed that Google's language processing & massive data
library to develop (AI) Artificial Intelligence Technology, Facebook & Google dominating mobile ads
space, desktop ads decline. YouTube uses (AI) & Machine Learning (ML) to recommend videos. Expect
Microsoft and Salesforce to participate in the AI revolution as well. With Windows 10, Microsoft tracks
almost everything users do on their computer. This, coupled with Office, LinkedIn, Azure, and other
data will drive Microsoft’s AI systems.
Positions in Industry:
Microsoft, Facebook, Alphabet Class A & C, Salesforce.com, Cognizant Technology Solutions
Catalyst for changing weighting:
Positions in these companies can become too large, so it may be necessary to reallocate, as we did during
the fall 2016 semester. Because the primary goal of the holdings in this industry is to provide returns
through the growth of its firms, adjustments may be necessary if any holding in the industry begins to
show a slowdown in growth. We recommend decreasing the heavily overweight position in Facebook to
a moderate one if its growth rates slow to the rates of Microsoft or lower. This will allow the fund to
lessen its exposure to the company’s lost momentum and free up cash to be invested into other
opportunities.
6. 6
Industry 3: Computer Technology
Over Equal Under
Current Weight (%): 4.58% Benchmark (%): 5.39%
Reason for Industry Weighting: We want an underweight in the Computer Technology sector to
decrease our exposure to Apple’s sales due to declining Apple phone sales coupled with moderate
increased expected in Apple’s other products. Also, we would like to participate with IBM’s play on AI
& Machine learning via their Watson and consider IBM different than other AI market participants
because IBM customer base is mainly all business facing customers.
The outlook for the Technology sector and the Computer Technology industry includes: Apple's sales of
the iPhone 7, smart phone vendors seek new growth segments in content, services, new Devices, such as
low end smart phone market in emerging markets. Take a core Holding position in "IBM", Last week
announced introduction of Apple's "SWIFT" programming language to its cloud serves, which means
that any enterprise developer can use the language to build, create, & manage "SWIFT" applications on
IBM's Cloud. The opportunity was created when Apple decided to "Open Source" its programming
language in December of 2015. Which gave Apple's enterprise partners, like IBM, more options to better
personalize consumer facing applications to better leverage cloud computing in deployment. Hence,
developers could create enterprise software in the cloud. Also, developers can create apps for Apple's
products using the same "SWIFT" language they would use for the server side apps for which they
depend.
Positions in Industry: Apple 4.03% & IBM 0.55%
Catalyst for changing weighting: If Apple’s or smartphones sales decline quickly due to market over
saturation, or IBM’s AI revenue play takes longer to catch on in terms of monetizing Watson. It will be
necessary to watch IBM. If they can monetize their analytics systems well (we believe this is especially
relevant to healthcare and cybersecurity fields), future fund managers will want to increase the position
in IBM. If, however, IBM’s legacy systems continue to decline and their BI units are not able to replace
the lost revenue, future managers should consider getting out of IBM.
7. 7
Industry 4: Electronic Components
Over Equal Under
Current Weight (%): 0.17% Benchmark (%): 0.16
Reason for Industry Weighting: Corning’s Gorilla glass with its multiple versions 1,2,3 etc., for
smartphones, tablets & PC’s, are now being retrofitted to be used in automobile windshields, moon &
sunroofs. Further, Electrochromic glass for buildings and home use for exterior surfaces which auto tints
into switchable privacy glass that is Energy-efficiency, smart glazing with an enhanced ability to redirect
unwanted heat from the sun or allow sunshine to enter for natural warmth and light. These solutions are
based on siloxane-enabled liquid crystal technology, change their optical or solar control characteristics
– switch from clear to translucent – in response to signals from an electronic driver.
The outlook for the Technology sector and the Electronics Components industry includes: increasing
Optical equipment, LCD Gorilla glass products market in Tablets, TV's, & notebooks aids in corning's
sales, long term supply contracts with Samsung until 2025 and BOE Technology until 2028, Corning
used Gorilla Glass to target automotive windows, Fiber cables to the home, Data center boost corning's
Optical sales. Corning Display Glass business is most profitable among peers due to "Gorilla Glass 4"
Brand, for instance, operating margins include: Corning 30.4%, Asahi Glass 8.1%, Nippon Electric
Glass 8.6%. Gorilla Glass 4 is expected to growth 10% in sales. Corning estimates that it has almost 7x
the market share than its closest competitor. Corning target automotive windows to increase "Gorilla
Glass" Brand. They make Glass for Ford's windshield, rear engine cover & acoustic separator of the GT
model. However, auto glass initial adoption is expected to be slow.
Positions in Industry: Corning Incorporated (GLW) 0.17%
Catalyst for changing weighting: Increasing segment sales of their auto/home/electronic Gorilla &
Electronic glass products.
Slowdown in technological advancement in automotive, healthcare, and industrial industries
Decreased sales in consumer electronics
Continued slowdown in TV and PC shipments
8. 8
Industry 5: Electronic Entertainment
Over Equal Under
Current Weight (%): 0.28% Benchmark (%): 0.14%
Reason for Industry Weighting:
M&A of King Digital positions (ATVI) for mobile, console, Online & PC games producing strong sales
via in digital content and game add-ons.
The outlook for the Technology sector and the Electronic Entertainment industry includes: Activision
Blizzard, Inc. acquired King Digital in February 2016, its 4 largest franchises includes: 1) Call of Duty,
2) World of Warcraft, 3) Sky-landers, and Destiny... The digital in-game offering is expected to result in
growing and recurring user bases, higher per-game engagement, and additional monetization
opportunities. While the acquisition of King Digital was a wise move for the game producer, most of the
growth since 2016 has been inorganic and purely the result of the acquisition. The company recently hit
an unexpected home-run with the success of Overwatch. ATVI also acquired Major League Gaming and
looks to create E-Gaming Leagues for their games. This creates monetization opportunities for the
company which will help increase revenues from their major franchises.
Positions in Industry: Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 0.28% Double the Benchmark: 0.14%
Catalyst for changing weighting: Increasing sales in console, online and mobile revenues due to
extraordinary sales in these segmented units. We would like to increase our exposure to Activision is
their sale increased passed analysts targets over the Christmas holiday season.
9. 9
Industry 6: Production Technology Equipment
Over Equal Under NO Position
Current Weight (%): 0.00% Benchmark (%): 0.22%
Reason for Industry Weighting
The outlook for the Technology sector and the Production Technology Equipment industry includes:
Applied Materials (AMAT) stock price target increased to $35 from $33, citing strong pipelines of new
products, such as 3D NAND ships and advanced display units. I expect management to focus on their
expanding opportunities in both Semiconductors & Display which is driven by more materials
innovation in both markets and ramp-up of several new products whereas, some investors are concerned
that the company might be peaking. However, I see a very strong industry momentum along with
Applied Materials (AMAT) gain in share value by way of its sustainable growth into the future. The
tiger fund has no position in Applied Materials, which has strengths in multiple areas, such as solid stock
price performance, impressive record of EPS growth, increases to Net Income, revenue growth and
ROE.
Positions in Industry: The Tiger fund has no position in the Production Technology Equipment
industry in the Technology sector and hence has no position in Applied Materials, Inc.
Catalyst for changing weighting:
N/A
10. 10
Industry 7: Semiconductors & Components
Over Equal Under
Current Weight (%): 1.67% Benchmark (%): 2.02%
Reason for Industry Weighting: Weighting is in response to their development of diversifying the
revenue streams from chips for smartphones, tablets, & PC’s into Automous driving vehicles and the
accompanying driving infrastructure & repair network for these smart vehicles.
The outlook for the Technology sector and the Semiconductors & Components industry includes:
Communications Technology critical in the (IoT), Apple iPhone 7 has mixed effect on component
suppliers, Samsung's Note7 recall may impact chip suppliers, Hyper scale data centers are transforming
computing, Data center gains create chip maker opportunity, mobile chipmakers face slower-growth
market, Product sales drive analog chips, Auto chip content to expand on smarter cars. AMD & Nvidia
lead chipmaker gains in first half of 2016. Cloud vendors' bespoke hyper scale servers look to custom
CPU's. Mobile chipmakers face slower growth market. Content growth may not add $10 Billion to
Smartphone chip market. PC's & Tablets still has significant influence in semiconductors. China may
use M&A, Regulatory scrutiny to gain chip power, Logic & memory chipmakers are more likely
takeover targets of Chinese companies than analog producers. Further, demand prospects include the
rising demand for sensors to install into driverless cars. Intel is aggressively pivoting to become a data
center and Internet of Things (IoT) chip company. Intel's Client computing groups generate 57% of sales,
amid PC shipment declines, data center 29% of sales, and the remaining of Intel’s sales come from
Internet of Things, memory, Security, and Altera's programmable solutions. Intel sees sales strengthen in
growing PC gaming market
Positions in Industry: Intel (INTC): 1.1%, Broadcom ( ): 0.56%
Catalyst for changing weighting:
Increased demand for PCs
New product development requiring semiconductors such as the Automous driving vehicle
Improved macroeconomic trends, primarily in China and Asia-Pacific
Increased R&D and capital spending
11. 11
Tiger Fund Research
Date: 12/1/2016
Name: Jason Wyman
Company Name: QUALCOMM Buy Purchase @ equal weight 0.66%
Sector: Technology
Industry: Communications Technology
Ticker: QCOM
Current Price: $ 68.59
Dividend & Yield: 3.2%
Reason for Owning: Core Holding Trade
Time Horizon: Short-Term Long-Term # of Months/Years: 2-3 yr. Investment horizon
Thesis:
Financial:
Decreasing Market Capitalization & Enterprise Value. Decreasing revenue YoY growth, coupled with
increasing margins in revenue, gross profit, EBITDA & Net Income margins.
Valuation:
QCOM is currently trading at a premium above all its 1 yr. historical valuation metrics of, BF P/E with a
20% Premium, BF EV/EBITDA with a 22% premium, BF EV/EBIT with a 45% premium, BF
EV/Revenue with a 42% premium about its comps. It is trading at a price slightly above +1 Standard
Deviation from its 2-yr. multiple average mean at 13.9x Blended Forward P/E.
Qualitative:
The NXP acquisition sets up the combined company for future revenue development in IoT,
Autonomous cars SOC chips (Software-on-Chip). Its products include baseband, radio-frequency, and
power amplification chips. QCT is the largest segment of QUALCOMM, accounting for about 67% of
sales. QCT products go into mobile phones, navigation devices, notebook computers, and now
automated cars & other consumer electronics. QUALCOMM pioneered the use of CDMA in commercial
wireless applications and is the leading supplier of CDMA chipsets.
Catalyst for change: (please include price targets and sell parameters if applicable)
Catalyst: NXP acquisition & Autonomous Vehicles
Price Target Recommendation Sell parameters: 1yr.: $79.20; 2yr: $88.06
12. 12
DCF Valuations Summary
QCOM
WACC: 9.6%, Perpetuity Growth Rate: 6.9%
Exit Enterprise Value/EBITDA: 12.7x
Price Targets
12 Month Price Target: $74.32, Last Price: $68.59
Price Spread: $5.73, Return Potential: +8.35%
Value: 2.0%
Discount Rate: 10%
Year 5 FCF Growth: 2.0%
Dividend & Yield: 3.2%
Consensus Rating: Group average 3.57, QCOM: 4.07, NXPI: 3.37, INTC: 3.95
Return % Potential: Group average 0.74, QCOM: 8.62, NXPI: 11.95, INTC: 13.60%
Valuation:
QCOM is trading above its 2yr. historical average when compared to itself and its competitors.
NXPI
Price Targets
12 Month Price Target: $110.71, Last Price: $98.76
Price Spread: $11.95, Return Potential: +12.10%
13. 13
Tiger Fund Research
Date: 12/1/2016
Names: Jason Wyman
Company Name: Microsoft
Sector: Technology
Industry: Computer Services Software & Systems
Ticker: MSFT
Current Price: $ 59.20
Dividend & Yield: 2.6%
Reason for Owning: Core Holding Trade
Time Horizon: Short-Term Long-Term # of Months/Years: 2-3 yr. Investment Horizon
Thesis:
Financial:
Revenue, Margins, Profitability are all down while Earnings are up this is via MFT leader in cloud with
a focus on Productivity, their legacy products are down coupled with strategy deals such as acquisition
of LinkedIn.
Quarterly growth rates in their business lines include: Intelligent Cloud 8.3%, Productivity & Business
Processes 5.6%, Personal Computing -1.78%, for a combined quarterly Revenue per all business lines
sales is 0.36%.
Current yr. P/E 19.93, Sales growth YoY -8.83%, which are all on the low end of their competitor’s
range.
EBITDA Margin 32.72%, R&D/Sales 14.05, which both are above their competitors range. MSFT P/E
28.36 and ROE is 22.45%, about 7.5% points higher than the industry average. Decreasing Market
Capitalization & Enterprise Value/EBITDA coupled with increasing margins revenue, gross profit,
EBITDA & Net Income margins.
Valuation:
MSFT vs. Comps
MSFT is currently trading at a premium above all its 1 yr. historical valuation metrics of, BF P/E with a
16% Premium, BF EV/EBITDA with a 19% premium, BF EV/EBIT with a 12% premium, BF
EV/Revenue with a 13% premium. It is trading at a price slightly above +1 Standard Deviation from its
2-yr. multiple average mean at 19.2 x Blended Forward P/E.
MSFT vs. Self
It is also trading at a premium when compared to the past, BF P/E with a 10% Premium, BF
EV/EBITDA with a 11% premium, BF EV/EBIT with a 18% premium, BF EV/Revenue with a 16%
premium. MSFT is trading at 19.2% BF P/E which is +1 Standard Deviation from its mean BF P/E
multiple average of 18.6x.
Qualitative: MSFT also has a play on Artificial Intelligence with their “Cortana”. Cloud adoption at
Microsoft remains strong, driving total growth. Margins may boost MFt Commercial Cloud margins in
fiscal 2017. Consequently, Artificial Intelligence (AI) will be in all of Microsoft’s products.
14. 14
Catalyst for change: Annual Tech Industry growth in (IAAS) Infrastructure-As-A-Service 28%,
(PAAS) Platform-As-A-Service 30%. MSFT is planning of capturing this growth trend. 12-month Price
Target $63.75, Price Spread $4.49, Return Potential 7.60%.
15. 15
Tiger Fund Research
Date: 12/1/2016
Names: Jason Wyman
Company Name: Facebook, Class A
Sector: Technology
Industry: Computer Services Software & Systems
Ticker: FB
Current Price: $ 115.10
Dividend & Yield: 0.0%
Reason for Owning: Core Holding Trade
Time Horizon: Short-Term Long-Term # of Months/Years: 2-3 yrs. Investment Horizon
Thesis:
Financial: FB user growth of 17% in 2015. Low estimated sales growth CAGR 37.1% vs. its 52.3%
average growth the past 3 yrs. High Operating margin of 55.8$% vs. 15.6% for the comps average. The
company strategic activity includes 6 M&A deals in the past year. High Long-Term FCF Margin of
35.1% of revenue vs. its own 27.0% past 5 yr. average, as well as, high Long-Term FCF margin of
35.1% vs. its competitors 2.5% of their revenue.
Valuation:
FB vs. Comps
It is trading at a discount compared to its competitors for all the valuation metrics in comparison to its 2
yr. historical values except for BF EV/Revenue with 42% premium, LF P/BV with 51% premium. FB is
trading at a discount when compared to the BF P/E metric with a 35% discount, BF EV/EBITDA with a
7% discount, BF EV/EBIT 28% discount.
FB vs. Self
FB is also trading at a discount when compared to its own 2 yr. historical averages using the metrics of
BF P/E, BF EV/EBITDA, BF EV/EBIT, and BF EV/Revenue. FB is trading at -1 Standard Deviation at
13.5x from its BF P/E Equity multiple via its 2yr. Multiple average value of 18.0x. Low EV/EBITDA vs.
its own Enterprise Value, which is 13.6x vs. also its own 18.0x 2 yr. historical averages.
Qualitative: From a valuation standpoint, FB has a price target which is 34% higher than current stock
price vs. 6.4% Comps average. Total return 10.3% YTD vs. 3.0% S&P 500 Internet Software & Services
Index. Also, positive 1yr. return of 8.9%. FB is dependent on advertising revenue which was 89%, 92%,
& 95% percentages of revenue over the years covering 2013-2015. Facebook’s main competition is other
social media sites such as Twitter and Pinterest, messaging apps such as WeChat and Skype, picture
sharing apps such as Twitter and virtual reality platforms such as HTC Vive and Samsung VR.
Catalyst for change: Gaining Market share & growth percentages in FB business lines in Facebook
social media site w/ messenger app, Instagram, WhatsApp, Oculus. 12-month Price Target of $154.70,
Price Spread of $39.30, Return Potential 34.06%.
16. 16
Tiger Fund Research
Date:12/1/2016
Names: Jason Wyman
Company Name: Alphabet, Class A & C
Sector: Technology
Industry: Computer Services Software & Systems
Ticker: (GOOGL & GOOG)
Current Price: $761.73 & $ 747.60
Dividend & Yield: 0.0%
Reason for Owning: Core Holding Trade
Time Horizon: Short-Term Long-Term # of Months/Years: 2-3 yrs. Investment Horizon
Thesis:
Financial:
Increasing Gross & Net Income margins, steady EBITDA margin, decreasing Market cap & Operating
margins. Google has an increasing revenue growth YoY of 19.2%, EBITDA margins of 33.1%, Net
Income margin of 22.7% which are all increasing except a slightly declining YoY Gross Profit margin of
61.8%. Google also has a declining effective tax rate 16.81% & sustainable growth rate of 14.12%.
Further, Google has a high Long-Term FCF margin of 27.9% vs. its own 5 yr. average of 23.2%.
Moreover, Google has a total return of -1.9% over the last year and a low Long-Term FCF yield of 0.0%
v.4.3% for competitor averages.
Valuation:
GOOG vs. Comps
GOOG vs. its competitor’s 2yr. historical price multiples are trading a discount. For example, GOOG’s
BF P/E is trading at a 20% discount, BF EV/EBITDA trading at a 23% discount, BF EV/EBIT at a 22%
discount, BF EV/Revenue at a 9% premium and LF P/BV is trading at a 11% discount.
GOOG vs. Self
When compared to its own 2 yr. historical average multiple, GOOG also trades at discount. GOOG is
currently trading at 10.6x multiple of BF EV/EBITDA as compared to 15.3x for comparable companies,
BF P/E of 18.7x, BF EV/EBIT of 12.4x, BF EV/Revenue of 5.2x, of which these multiples of valuation
for Google are trading at a discount to its own 2 yr. historical averages. Google
Qualitative:
Google’s Strategic activity include 15 M&A deal, with 1 deal in the past year. Its stock is testing support
at its 200-day moving average price. Google’s Business lines includes: 1) Search & Display segment
with Paid Clicks, Cost-per-Click, Internet-Traffic Acquisition Costs; 2) Other segment; 2.a) Advertising,
Paid Clicks, Cost-per-click.
Catalyst for change: 12-month Price Target: $957.50, Price spread $207, Return potential of 27.58%.
17. 17
Tiger Fund Research
Date: 12/1/2016
Names: Jason Wyman
Company Name: Salesforce.com
Sector: Technology
Industry: Computer Services Software & Systems
Ticker: CRM
Current Price: $ 68.46
Dividend & Yield: 0.0%
Reason for Owning: Core Holding Trade
Time Horizon: Short-Term Long-Term # of Months/Years: 2-3 yrs. Investment Horizon
Thesis:
Financial:
Revenue and Profitability is down while margins are up, However, Decreasing expense growth is
helping boost CRM’s profits. Cloud apps are growing 4x faster than on–premise software. (PAAS)
which stands for Platform-As-A-Service I expected to grow fastest among cloud services segments.
Valuation:
CRM vs. Comps
CRM BF P/E is trading at a 55.3x, which is an 89% premium from the Comps mean of 29.2x. Further
BF EV/EBITDA of a 22.5x multiple at a 31% premium, BF EV/EBIT of a 36.3x multiple at a 65%
premium, P/BV 7.0x multiple at a 37% premium, & a 4.8x multiple at a 2% discount when compared to
its competitors mean of 4.9x multiple when analyzing it 2 yr. historical average.
CRM vs. Self
All CRM 2 yr. historical Multiples are trading at discount in comparison to its own averages. CRM’s BF
P/E of 55.3x is trading at a 30% discount to its own 2 yr. averages. BF EV/EBITDA 22.5x, 23%
discount from its 2-yr. average of 29.0x, BF EV/EBIT 36.4x, 22% discount from it 2 yr. avg. 46.9x, BF
EV/Revenue 4.8x, 19% discount, and P/BV 7.0x, 31% discount also from 2yr. historical average of
10.1x. Consequently, Saleforce.com is trading more than -1.5 Standard Deviation from its 2 yr. mean
multiple of 78.8x
Qualitative:
Salessforce.com is expanding its core product of CRM due to rising competition with legacy vendor
Oracle and SAP. Salesforce.com acquired Demadware for $2.8 Billion. Salesforce.com sells its
products via the cloud vs. competitor’s license model, which has been the main disrupter company in the
software industry. Additional newer products include their marketing and app clouds are helping to
offset the slowing growth in its core CRM product & sales clouds. Salessforce.com is the only large-cap
software company with +20% ale growth for the past 3 years and views its new Artificial Intelligence
(AI) product called “Einstein” as a key driver of future growth for the company. Therefore, Profit growth
will rely on the pace of investments in sales and marketing, which expenses have declined recently, plus
the impact of new M&A activity on the top-line growth.
Catalyst for change: 12-month price targets $94.90, Price spread $26.55, Return Potential 38.86%
18. 18
Tiger Fund Research
Date:12/1/2016
Names: Jason Wyman
Company Name: Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation
Sector: Technology
Industry: Computer Services Software & Systems
Ticker: CTSH
Current Price: $ 54.08
Dividend & Yield: 0.0%
Reason for Owning: Core Holding Trade
Time Horizon: Short-Term Long-Term # of Months/Years: 2-3 yrs. Investment Horizon
Thesis:
Financial:
Revenue YoY growth declined by 9.8% points, lowed by more 46%, falling from 21% in 2015 to 11.2%
in 2016 on 9/30/2016. CTSH Gross Profit margins remained flat at 39.9%, EBITDA margin increased
0.1% over the past year to settle at 20% YTD 2016. Net Income margins & Total debt margins are
growing coupled with a declining FCF from last year. Total Debt/Total capital equal 8.01% of their
market cap valuation.
Valuation:
CTSH vs. Comps
For the most part multiples of CTSH is trading at a discount. BF EV/EBITDA 4% discount or multiple
of 9.2x, from it mean multiple of 9.6x. BF EV/Revenue & P/BV are both trading at a discount of 16%,
13% respectfully from its mean multiple. CTSH’s BF EV/EBIT is trading flat at its mean multiple of
10.8x, whereas, BF P/E is trading at a 3% premium, with a 14.8x multiple and a mean multiple of 14.4x.
CTSH vs. Self
However, CTSH is trading at a discount to its own historical multiples. BF P/E trades at 17% discount,
BF EV/EBITDA trades at a 21% discount, BF EV/EBIT trades at a 17% discount, BF EV/Revenue
trades at a 19% discount and finally, P/BV trades at a 24% discount from its own historical multiple
from itself. CTH is trading at 14.8x multiple, which is more than -1 Standard Deviation from its mean
BF P/E multiple of 17.8x.
Qualitative: CTSH provides IT Service for industries such as: Financial services, Healthcare,
Manufacturing/Retail/Coordination. The company has slowing sales growth of 9.7% in comparison to its
5-yr. historical sales growth of 22.1%. CTSH strategic activity includes 6 M&A deals with 1 deal in the
past year.
Moreover, CTSH has had -15.6% total return over the past year and a -10% return YTD.
Catalyst for change: 12 Month Price Target $63.93, Price Spread $9.91, Return Potential 18.34%
19. 19
Tiger Fund Research
Date: 12/1/2016
Names: Jason Wyman
Company Name: Apple
Sector: Technology
Industry: Computer Technology
Ticker: AAPL
Current Price: $ 109.49
Dividend & Yield: 2.1%
Reason for Owning: Core Holding Trade
Time Horizon: Short-Term Long-Term # of Months/Years: 2-3 yrs. Investment Horizon
Thesis:
Financial:
Revenue YoY Growth has declined by -8% over the past year, however, year 2015 Revenue growth was
27.9%, so Apple’s growth has slowed some over the past year. Gross margins have declined 1.2% from
2015-2016, to settle at 38.9% for 2016. EBITDA margin is about its average 32.5%, Net Income margin
remain very steady at 21.1%. Further, Apple has decreasing margins in their Gross margin, EBITDA &
operating margins, Incremental Operating margin, Pretax margin, Net Income & Net Income to Common
margin. Apple’s effective tax rate is 25.56%, dividend payout ratio of 26.19% and sustainable growth
rate declined by 25% over the 2016 year settling at 27.24%, which is due to slowing sales.
Valuation:
Apple vs. Comps
Overall, Apple is trading below or at a discount to the 2 yr. historical averages of the sector competitors.
Apple’s BF P/E is trading at 12.0x multiple, which is a 5% discount from the mean multiple of 12.7x.
BF EV/EBITDA is trading at 6.0x multiple or a 23% discount to its mean multiple of 7.7x, BF EV/EBIT
multiple of 6.9x and is also trading at a 34% discount to its mean of 10.4x. On the other hand, Apple’s
next two metrics are trading at a premium to their Competitors means. BF EV/Revenue multiple of 1.9x
is trading at a 95% premium to its Comps mean multiple of 1.0x; and furthermore, P/BV multiple of
4.6x is also trading at a 49% premium to its Comp mean multiple of 3.1x.
Apple vs. Self
Overall, when compared to the historical averages of itself, Apple is trading at a discount to its 2 yr.
historical averages. Apple’s BF P/E multiple of 12.0x, is 1.67% below its historical 2 yr. average
multiple of 12.2x. Further, EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.0x is 3% below its own mean multiple of 6.2x,
EV/EBIT multiple is 6.9x, which is a 5% discount to its own mean multiple of 7.2x. Apple’s BF
EV/Revenue & P/BV multiples are 1.9x & 4.6x, respectfully. Whereas, when compared to its own
historical Comps both metrics is trading at a 10% discount from its historical mean multiples of 2.1x &
5.1x, respectfully. Moreover, Apple’s BF P/E multiple is 12.0x and is trading about its mean multiple of
12.2x.
20. 20
Qualitative:
Stock is testing support at its 100-day moving average, Price Target, which is about 5 time larger as its
competitors, where Apple’s price is 19.8% higher than current stock price v. Comps average of 4.6%
Positive Return of 6.7% YTD, but negative 1 yr. return of -3.4%. Apple’s 3yr. estimated sales CAGR is
4.1% vs. its 16.2% average growth over the past 4 years. Further, high operating margin vs. Comps due
to its BF Operating margin of 27.1% vs. Comp average of 9.3%. Apple also has an enormously high
level of cash on its balance sheet, $237.6 Billion, which value equals 54.6% of Apple’s Enterprise
Value, as well as, the size of the cash is 273% of their debt outstanding, so Apple can pay off its debt
almost 2 ¾ times over. Further, Apple’s strategic activity includes 5 M&A deals, with 2 M&A
investments in the past year.
Catalyst for change: 12 Month Price Target $131.63, Price spread $21.77, Return Potential 19.82%
21. 21
Tiger Fund Research
Date:12/1/2016
Names: Jason Wyman
Company Name: IBM 0.55%
Sector: Technology
Industry: Computer Technology
Ticker: IBM
Current Price: $ 162.66
Dividend & Yield: 3.5%
Reason for Owning: Core Holding Trade
Time Horizon: Short-Term Long-Term # of Months/Years: 2-3 yr. Analysis horizon
Thesis:
Financial:
IBM has decreasing revenue totals due IBM divesting itself of less profitable business segments while
ramping up & focusing on profitable segments. Sales are smaller in relation to historical sales levels but
IBM can keep more of revenue due to increasing margins. Expected net income margin in 2016 is
expected to be 16.6% which is 1.6-2.0% below its previous 3yr. average of 18.4% NI margin. Free cash
Flow increased 12.27% from December 2015 to 2016. IBM had an effective tax rate of 16.19% in yr.
2015, which down 30.88% from its 2014 tax rate of 21.19%. Sustainable Growth rate has increased from
51.03% in yr. 2010 which increased +25.34% to 63.96% by yr. 2015.
Valuation:
Based upon IBM’s historical valuation ratios, IBM is trading at a 2yr. historical average vs. industry
competitors for a discount of 20% using the BF P/E ratio, trading a 22% premium to BF EV/EBITDA, a
17% premium to BF EV/EBIT, a 64% premium to BF EV/EBIT, and a 160% premium to its LF P/BV.
When comparing IBM to its own 2yr. historical values, IBM is trading at a premium above all its
previous average multiples. IBM’s BF P/E 2yr. average mean multiple is 10.2x, however, IBM is trading
about 11.7x BF P/E, which is about +1.5 Standard Deviations above the mean.
Qualitative:
IBM services includes secure data, Hybrid Cloud Infrastructure, Responsive IT, IBM Security Trusteer
Pinpoint detect. IBM is the company best poised to benefit most from AI as they started over 5 years
ago, with Watson and were one of the first players in this field. Benefits from AI include businesses, but
especially those in healthcare and cybersecurity. In the past 3 years, IBM has made over 34 acquisitions
to strengthen their position in AI, Cloud Infrastructure, and Cybersecurity. This trend can be expected to
continue and, as IBM monetizes AI, can be expected to increase revenue in these areas.
Catalyst for change: IBM expanding AI opportunities, especially in healthcare and cybersecurity.
22. 22
DCF Valuations Summary
IBM
WACC: 6.8%, Perpetuity Growth Rate: 1.6%
Exit Enterprise Value/EBITDA: 9.8x
Value: 2.0%
Discount Rate: 7%
Year 5 FCF Growth: 2%
Dividend & Yield: 3.5%
Price Targets:
12 Month Price Target $158.53, Last Price $162.66
Price Spread $-4.13, Return Potential -2.54%
Consensus Rating: Group average 3.81, IBM: 3.32
Return % Potential: Group average 10.93%, IBM: -2.55%
Valuation:
IBM is trading above its 2yr. historical average when compared to itself and its competitors.
23. 23
Tiger Fund Research
Date: 12/1/2016
Names: Jason Wyman
Company Name: EMC Corporation
Sector: Technology
Industry: Computer Technology
Ticker: EMC
Current Price: $ 29.05
Dividend & Yield:
Reason for Owning: Core Holding Trade
Time Horizon: Short-Term Long-Term # of Months/Years: ½ - 1 year Investment Horizon
Thesis:
Financial:
EMC has a declining market cap, increasing total debt structure, while the (EV) Enterprise Value
declined 17% over from 2014-2015. Revenue YoY growth is -0.7 % declining 2.1% over the last year
and hence the growth in revenue has been rapidly decreasing over the past 5 yrs., from revenue growth
of 8.5% in year 2012, to -0.7% revenue growth in 2016. Gross Profit margin have averaged 61-62%,
EBITDA margin has declined 3% point since year 2014, to rest at it 2016 margin of 22.4%. Net Income
margins have fell 3% points from 2012-2015, to arrive year 2016 10.1% NI margin. FCF increased
11.86% over this last year to arrive at $5,061 at the end of this fiscal year. EMC Corp’s Effective Tax
Rate (ETR) over the past 5 yrs. fluctuates between 19.71% - 24.64%, and 2015’ ETR is 24.64%. EMC’s
dividend payout ratio has increased drastically over the last 3 years, with 21.54% in yr. 2013, 33.63% in
yr. 2014, and 46.18%. EMC’s sustainable growth rate has ranged from a high of 13.41% in 2011 to a
low of 4.98% in year 2016.
Valuation:
Valuation of EMC Corporation based upon daily price changes in the stock over the 2016 year changed
over $3.23 or 12.51% from its high of $29.05 on 9/6/16 to its low of $23.90 on 1/27/16. EMC’s average
price over the same period is $26.65. Further, EMC Corp for the last 5 yrs. have experienced a severe
decline in their YoY earnings growth. For example, earnings growth by year includes: year 2012 at 13%,
years 2013 & 2014 at 6%, year 2015 at -4%, year 2016 at 2%.
Qualitative:
USD $4 Billion in debt maturity is approaching within the next year and represents 42.1% of current
total debt outstanding and 34% if EMC’s cash balance. Further, its high yield credit because company
credit rating for Moody’s (Baa), Fitch (BB+). Company’s Strategic activity includes 2 M&A deals, 2
investment and another deal in the past year.
Catalyst for change: 12 Month Price Target $29.50
24. 24
Tiger Fund Research
Date: 12/1/2016
Names: Jason Wyman
Company Name: Corning Inc.
Sector: Technology
Industry: Electronic Components
Ticker: GLW
Current Price: $ 23.53
Dividend & Yield: 2.3%
Reason for Owning: Core Holding Trade
Time Horizon: Short-Term Long-Term # of Months/Years: 2-3 yrs. Investment Horizon
Thesis:
Financial:
Revenue Growth YoY is slightly declining -6.2% last year & another -1.5% in 2016, Gross profit
remained steady 40.4% of revenues. EBITDA margins declined only by 0.2% since last year to rest at
28.5% for 2016. Net Income margins have declined rapidly over the last 5 yrs., falling over 10.1% and
resting at 13.7% for 2016. From year 2013-2014, FCF doubled from $1,768 to $3,633, only to decline
24.3% over the next 2 yrs. from 2014-2016, and rest at a FCF of 13.7% of revenues in 2016. This is due
to Corning selling their less profitable department of Hardware and Equipment combined with declining
sales in their specialty materials department. Increasing Enterprise value multiples include:
EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, EV/CF to Firm, EV/FCF to Firm. Declining Enterprise Value multiple only
includes EV/Sales.
Valuation:
GLW vs. Comps
GLW is predominately trading at a discount to its competitors. BF P/E is trading at a 18% discount with
a 14.4x multiple , BF EV/EBITDA is trading at a 30% discount to its competitors with a multiple
of 7.4x and a mean multiple of 10.5x. BF EV/EBIT is trading at a 17% discount with a multiple of 12.3x
and a Comp mean of 14.8x, P/BV is also trading at a discount of 16% to its Comps with a multiple of
1.5x and a mean of 1.7x. The only valuation metric of Corning that’s trading at a premium of 43% with a
multiple of 2.4x and a Competitors mean multiple of 1.7x.
GLW vs. Self
GLW when compared to its own historical multiples, Corning trades at a premium of 6%, 5%, & 7%
when comparing their BF P/E, BF EV/EBIT, P/BV, currently multiple include 14.4x, 12.3x, & 1.5x,
respectfully. Furthermore, corning multiple which trade at a discount of 1% & 3% when comparing their
BF EV/EBITDA, BF EV/Revenue, currently multiple include 7.4x, 2.4x, respectfully from its own
historical averages.
Qualitative: GLW high dividend yield of 2.3% vs. comps average dividend yield is 0.9%. GLW ha a
32.2% Return YTD as compared to 31.1% for the S&P 500 Electronic Components. High R&D
expenses of 8.5% of revenue v. 4.6% for Comps average. Extremely high cash balance of $4.8 Billion,
which equals 20.2% of the Enterprise value and 122.9% of GLW debt outstanding.
Catalyst for change: 12 Month Price Target $23.25, Price Spread $-0.30, Return Potential -1.27%
25. 25
Tiger Fund Research
Date: 12/1/2016
Names: Jason Wyman
Company Name: ACTIVISION BLIZZARD – Buy position @ overweight 0.28%
Sector: Technology
Industry: Electronic Entertainment
Ticker: ATVI
Current Price: $ 37.12
Dividend & Yield: 0.7%
Reason for Owning: Core Holding Trade
Time Horizon: Short-Term Long-Term # of Months/Years: 2-3yrs. Investment horizon
Thesis:
Financial:
ATVI has an increasing revenue margin post growth of 21.7% YoY from yr. 2015.
Decreasing margins include: Gross profit margin of 37.7% decreasing 23.09% YoY, EBITDA, Net
Income & EPS margins all have slightly decreased over yr. 2016. It is believed that this is due to costs
associated with ATVI purchasing King Digital.
Valuation:
Activision Blizzard vs. its competitor’s 2yr. historical price multiples are all increasing. For example,
ATVI’s BF P/E is trading at a 6% premium, BF EV/EBITDA trading at a 38% premium, BF EV/EBIT at
a 33% premium BF EV/Revenue at a 78% premium and LF P/BV is also trading at a 12% premium.
When compared to its own 2 yr. historical average multiple, ATVI trades at about its own average. ATVI
is currently trading around -0.5 Standard Deviation below its 2yr. average Multiple mean of 18.9, where
ATVI has a 17.6 BF P/E multiple. Hence is trading at a premium to its competitors, however, such
multiples are in-line with its own historical multiples.
Qualitative:
Online gaming - and watching online gaming - is becoming a big deal. ATVI recently acquired Major
League Gaming which will help them monetize and grow championship competitions for gamers. ESPN
recently launched a web-based e-gaming site dedicated to these types of events and we can expect them
to grow. Digital content and game add-ons continue to be a hit and that can be expected to continue. The
acquisition of King Digital will help ATVI expand beyond console gaming into the mobile market.
Catalyst for change: Game content continually being expanded due to synergies via their combined
Activision, Blizzard & King Digital content creation models.
26. 26
DCF Valuations Summary
ATVI
WACC: 8.4%, Perpetuity Growth Rate: 5.8%
Exit Enterprise Value/EBITDA: 19.4x
Value: 4.6%
Discount Rate: 8%
Year 5 FCF Growth: 13%
Dividend & Yield: 0.7%
Price Targets:
12 Month Price Target $ 49.59, Last Price $ 37.12
Price Spread $ 12.48, Return Potential +33.62%
Consensus Rating: Group average 4.50, ATVI: 4.65
Return % Potential: Group average 12.66%, ATVI: +33.78%
Valuation:
ATVI is trading below its 2yr. historical average when compared to itself and about its historical average when compared to
its competitors.
27. 27
Tiger Fund Research
Date: 12/1/2016
Name: Jason Wyman
Company Name: INTEL– Buy position @ equal weight 1.1%
Sector: Technology
Industry: Semiconductors & Components
Ticker: INTC
Current Price: $ 35.36
Dividend & Yield: 3.0%
Reason for Owning: Core Holding Trade
Time Horizon: Short-Term Long-Term # of Months/Years: 2-3 yr. Investment horizon
Thesis:
Financial:
Intel’s 3rd
quarter earnings is up 8.7%. Intel has decreasing Client Computing revenue, coupled with
increasing revenue in their data center with a 3yr. growth trend of 14.15% & increasing I-o-T revenue
and company share of income.
Valuation:
It is trading at a discount compared to its competitors for all the valuation metrics in comparison to its 2
yr. historical values of itself using the BF P/E metric with a 25% discount, BF EV/EBITDA with a 27%
discount, BF EV/EBIT 31% discount, BF EV/Revenue with 10% discount, LF P/BV with 21% discount.
However, Intel is trading at a premium when compared to its own 2 yr. historical averages using the
metrics of BF EV/EBITDA, BF EV/EBIT, and BF EV/Revenue. Intel is trading at -1 Standard Deviation
at 12.5x from its BF P/E Equity multiple via its 2yr. Multiple average value of 13.4x.
Qualitative:
Business Intelligence data group is growing, the market for I-o-T is up 19% this year. Autonomous
driving will continue to be complex as computing/chipset requirements will grow exponentially. Intel is
positioned to provide end-to-end autonomous solutions from the vehicle to the cloud. The I-o-T will
drive growth in the Cloud as “connected things” interact with cloud infrastructure. Data Center business
delivers almost 1/3 of Intel’s operating margin, and this segment is expected to have revenue growth of
15% through 2018.
Catalyst for change: (please include price targets and sell parameters if applicable)
Autonomous Vehicles being commercially launched. Intel Xeon chips are designed for machine
learning, scoring system used to automate driving. Evolution to 5G connectivity.
28. 28
DCF Valuations Summary
INTC
WACC: 9.2%, Perpetuity Growth Rate: 7.8%
Exit Enterprise Value/EBITDA: 15.3x
Value: 3.7%
Discount Rate: 9%
Year 5 FCF Growth: 8%
Dividend & Yield: 3.0%
Price Targets:
12 Month Price Target $ 40.18, Last Price $ 35.36
Price Spread $ 4.82, Return Potential +13.64%
Consensus Rating: Group average 3.57, INTC: 3.95, QCOM: 4.07, NXPI: 3.37
Return % Potential: Group average 0.74%, INTC: 13.60%, QCOM: 8.62%, NXPI: 11.95%
Valuation:
INTC is trading above its 2yr. historical average when compared to itself and below its 2yr. average when compared to its
competitors.
29. 29
Tiger Fund Research
Date: 12/1/2016
Names: Jason Wyman
Company Name: Broadcom Limited
Sector: Technology
Industry: Semiconductors & Components
Ticker: AVGO
Current Price: $ 162.79
Dividend & Yield: 1.3%
Reason for Owning: Core Holding Trade
Time Horizon: Short-Term Long-Term # of Months/Years: 2-3 yr. Investment horizon
Thesis:
Financial:
Broadcom’s Market Cap is almost doubling every year coupled with an increased debt trend.
Broadcom’s Enterprise Value is following the same trend as its market cap of almost doubling every
year and 2016’s (EV) provided +121% YoY growth. Broadcom’ growth ramped up very fast over the
years covering 2012-2014
Revenue YoY growth 66.3%. Moreover, Gross profit margins over the last 5 yrs. have been in between
the range of 45.1% -52.8%, as of year, 2016 YTD, AVGO’s margin has fallen slightly by 16% over this
year of 2016. EBITDA margin over the past 5 yrs. high was in 2015 at 41.9%, only to decline softly by
31.27% and settle at for the year at 28.6%. Net Income margins over the past 5 yr. have meandered from
a high in 2012 & 2015 of 24% to a low during this year of 3.3%, (NIM) dropping a total of 86.25%. FCF
increased by 16.2% to settle at $2,005 in year 2016.
Valuation:
AVGO vs. Comps
AVGO’s BF P/E is trading at a 28% discount with a 12.1x multiple, BF EV/EBIT is trading at a 6%
discount with a 15.0x multiple when comparing it to their competitors using a 2-yr. average. Further, BF
EV/EBITDA is trading at a 4% premium with a 10.2x multiple, BF EV/Revenue is also trading at a 60%
premium with a 4.9x multiple, as well as, P/BV which is trading at a 2% premium with a 3.3x multiple,
in comparison to their competitors using a 2-yr. historical average of the multiples.
AVGO vs. Self
AVGO, when compared to its own historical averages, trades at a 11% discount or -1.5 Standard
Deviation from it 2 yr. historical average multiple, where BF P/E has a 12.1x multiple, P/BV trade at a
52% discount to its own 2 yr. average with a 3.3x multiple. Furthermore, BF EV/EBITDA, BF
EV/EBIT, & BF EV/ Revenue, are all trading at a premium of 2%, 10%, & 1%, when compared to its
self, with multiples of 10.2x, 14.1x, & 4.9x, respectfully. Moreover, AVGO’s BF P/E 12.1x multiple is
trading at -1.5 Standard Deviations below the mean multiple of 13.5x.
30. 30
Qualitative:
From a Technical support perspective, AVGO’s stock is testing support at 200 day moving average. The
Price target is 25.2% higher than the current stock price vs. 8.1% for Comps average. AVGO’ has
projected high 3 yr. sales growth of 35.8% vs. Comps average sales growth of 8.7%. AVGO also has a
high operating margin of 40.8% vs. its 29.4% Comps average. AVGO’s is a value purchase because its
P/E multiple trades at a discount with a multiple of 12.1x vs. its own multiple of 13.5x for a 2-yr.
historical average. AVGO’s YTD return is 14.2%, and 1 yr. return is 25.8% vs. 18.9x multiple of the
company’ competitors.
Catalyst for change: 12 Month Price Target $205.59, Price Spread $ 41.37, Return Potential 25.19%