Technological Trends of the Future: Next Era of Computing
Kerrie Holley, IBM Fellow
IBM’s Global Technology Outlook (GTO)
GTO identifies significant technology trends early.
It looks for high impact disrupt...
IBM’s
GTO
Genetic
Map
Mega Trends
Technology Drivers

Mobile - Social – Cloud Analytics / Big Data

Growing Scale / Lower Barrier of Entry
Users...
IBM’s 5 in 5
Touch: You will be able to feel through your phone
Sight: A pixel will be worth a thousands words
Hearing: Computers will augment what you hear
Taste: Digital taste buds will help you eat smarter
Smell: Computers will sniff out diseases
…..the New Era
For many clients, mission critical applications have reached the point
of diminishing return
Diminishing Return

Client
Va...
The confluence of Social, Mobile, Analytics and Cloud has created a
perfect storm of sorts
Cloud

Mobile

Social

Internet...
Exponential growth in data, why does it matter?
100

9000

Percentage of uncertain data

80

7000
60

6000

Social Media

...
Companies are not overwhelmed by too much data

scrila34@msn.com

…. constrained and limited by too little
Information in context
scrila34@msn.com
Job
Applicant

Identity
Thief
Puzzle metaphor by IBM Fellow, Jeff Jonas

Top 200
C...
Analytics and the context multiplier
Actuarial data

Government statistics

Epidemic data
Patient records

Weather history...
Eras of Computing

Programmable
Systems Era
Tabulating
Systems Era

Cognitive
Systems Era
Watson to provide the foundation for a completely new form of client
experience
Watson can assist an Oncologist by:
Synthe...
IBM Watson brings together transformational technologies to drive
optimized outcomes ushering in the new era
Generates and...
Key Technologies in the Cognitive Computing Era
Context and
Learning
Visual Analytics
and Interaction
Software Defined
Env...
Major Waves of Technology – 4th Era of IT

Confluence of Social Mobile Cloud
Analytics / Big Data

Back Office
Computing

...
Trend: Mobility is driving new consumption patterns
Context Fusion
Apps are used to perform a single task,
based on the us...
Mobiity, cloud, social and analytics is enabling companies to reimagine their business models to capture new value
HTTP No...
Trend: Born on the Internet enterprise companies have emerged
• They use a self-service sales model with scalable subscrip...
Trend: New User and App / API Economy has emerged
New user: fundamental Shifts in Devices and Usage
–
–
–
–
–

PC Mobile
S...
Trend: The New Developer has emerged in the enterprise
The new developer is taking control over the corporation
with Open ...
Cloud, mobile and social are fueling the hyper-growth of API-centric,
new business as-a-service economies
TREND:
A new as-...
APIs as a strategic business tool for value co-creation and front-office
digitization is growing in Fortune 1000 companies...
The API-centric, as-a-Service delivery is disrupting the consumption
of business services as Cloud disrupted the IT consum...
The Web beyond the Browser
Web APIs are the new,
fast-growing business
channel

Businesses
Are Evolving
stores

(800) ###s...
New types of systems are being developed using different
engagement models
Systems of Record
Focus on Transactional integr...
Questions? :
Kerrie holley ; klholley@us.ibm.com
twitter.com/kerrieh
http://www.facebook.com/KerrieHolley
IBM
http://www03...
Nova era računarstva
Nova era računarstva
Nova era računarstva
Nova era računarstva
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Nova era računarstva, Kerrie Holly - IBM Fellow - Scalable Business Services, Master Inventor

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Nova era računarstva

  1. 1. Technological Trends of the Future: Next Era of Computing Kerrie Holley, IBM Fellow
  2. 2. IBM’s Global Technology Outlook (GTO) GTO identifies significant technology trends early. It looks for high impact disruptive technologies leading to game changing products and services over a 3-10 year horizon. Technology thresholds identified in a GTO demonstrate their influence on clients, enterprises, and industries, and have high potential to create new businesses.
  3. 3. IBM’s GTO Genetic Map
  4. 4. Mega Trends Technology Drivers Mobile - Social – Cloud Analytics / Big Data Growing Scale / Lower Barrier of Entry Users Transactions Computations Data Increasing Complexity / Yet More Consumable Data and data management Workloads Discovering insights Interaction Fast Pace Evolving business eco-system Dynamic scalability Minimize time to value Keeping pace with technology and globalization Contextual Overload Proliferation of sensors and devices Demand for personalization Just in time
  5. 5. IBM’s 5 in 5
  6. 6. Touch: You will be able to feel through your phone
  7. 7. Sight: A pixel will be worth a thousands words
  8. 8. Hearing: Computers will augment what you hear
  9. 9. Taste: Digital taste buds will help you eat smarter
  10. 10. Smell: Computers will sniff out diseases
  11. 11. …..the New Era
  12. 12. For many clients, mission critical applications have reached the point of diminishing return Diminishing Return Client Value Many major application categories are in diminishing returns – ERP – SCM – Batch – Commerce Cumulative Investment in Applications
  13. 13. The confluence of Social, Mobile, Analytics and Cloud has created a perfect storm of sorts Cloud Mobile Social Internet of Things
  14. 14. Exponential growth in data, why does it matter? 100 9000 Percentage of uncertain data 80 7000 60 6000 Social Media We are here 40 5000 4000 VoIP 3000 Enterprise Data 20 0 2010 2015 Percent of uncertain data Volume in Exabytes 8000 Sensors & Devices
  15. 15. Companies are not overwhelmed by too much data scrila34@msn.com …. constrained and limited by too little
  16. 16. Information in context scrila34@msn.com Job Applicant Identity Thief Puzzle metaphor by IBM Fellow, Jeff Jonas Top 200 Customer Criminal Investigation
  17. 17. Analytics and the context multiplier Actuarial data Government statistics Epidemic data Patient records Weather history ... Location risk Occupational risk Family history Raw Data Travel history Feature extraction metadata Dietary risk ... Personal financial situation Chemical exposure Domain linkages Social relationships Full contextual analytics
  18. 18. Eras of Computing Programmable Systems Era Tabulating Systems Era Cognitive Systems Era
  19. 19. Watson to provide the foundation for a completely new form of client experience Watson can assist an Oncologist by: Synthesizing disparate data – patient records, clinician notes, test results, pathology reports, etc. Identifying missing pieces of data recommending tests with complete transparency Providing evidence-based options to help physicians efforts to improve quality of care and patient experience
  20. 20. IBM Watson brings together transformational technologies to drive optimized outcomes ushering in the new era Generates and 1 Understands natural language and human speech 3 Adapts and Learns from user selections and responses 2 evaluates hypothesis for better outcomes 99% 60% 10%
  21. 21. Key Technologies in the Cognitive Computing Era Context and Learning Visual Analytics and Interaction Software Defined Environments Data-centric Systems Atomic and Nano-scale 1 2 3 4 5
  22. 22. Major Waves of Technology – 4th Era of IT Confluence of Social Mobile Cloud Analytics / Big Data Back Office Computing 60’s Client Server PC - 1981 80’s World Wide Web and eBusiness 90’s We are here
  23. 23. Trend: Mobility is driving new consumption patterns Context Fusion Apps are used to perform a single task, based on the user's context (role, location, ...) App-centric Users increasingly demonstrate a preference for apps that are downloaded from trusted source over mobile web browsing Apps Chained 50% of mobile sessions are composed of sequences of apps, manually "integrated" by the user New consumption patterns place users at the center. Mobile provides a seamless experience across all channels (e.g., retail, banking, call centers). Wearable Devices Augmented Web Reality Chat Telephone Social Tablet Smart TV Physical World Smartphone
  24. 24. Mobiity, cloud, social and analytics is enabling companies to reimagine their business models to capture new value HTTP Notification Data sync CRM Legacy DB Scalable Delivery Infrastructure HR ERP Systems of Record Continuous Client Experience Engagement Capabilities Social and Collaboration Cross-endpoint Support Personalization Contextualization Scalable Delivery Infrastructure Background Activity & Monitoring Data Synchronization Service Composition Metadata Repository User and services security
  25. 25. Trend: Born on the Internet enterprise companies have emerged • They use a self-service sales model with scalable subscription pricing models • New models for collaboration and life cycle management for applications and code • Cloud for Internal IT and product delivery • Customer experience and business experiences delivered through software as a service
  26. 26. Trend: New User and App / API Economy has emerged New user: fundamental Shifts in Devices and Usage – – – – – PC Mobile Search Social Traveling Heavy Traveling Light Miminal Insight Contextual Standard Interfaces Imagination of User Interfaces Application economy of the enterprise is changing: bring your own applications, data and device to the enterprise – – – Unaware Incorporated Location Services “Toy Apps” Business Level Capabilities Monolithic applications Mobile Self-Service Marketplaces
  27. 27. Trend: The New Developer has emerged in the enterprise The new developer is taking control over the corporation with Open Source Prosumers are becoming the newest developers The new developer is API driven The new developer is API driven – – – – – APIs are changing the face of development and the way products and services are delivered Create exposure and revenue Foster new affifliate and distribution models Allow companies to open their resources in a secure and controlled way Create near real time access to cross division resources
  28. 28. Cloud, mobile and social are fueling the hyper-growth of API-centric, new business as-a-service economies TREND: A new as-a-service economy is emerging Business functions are delivered as API-centric services, enabling businesses to co-create customer value with speed and scale Born-on-the-web companies are co-creating value through APIs at an accelerated pace and enterprises are starting to explore them Agile, scalable, and consumable business as-a-service will shift the business services market similar to the shift of IT delivery through cloud
  29. 29. APIs as a strategic business tool for value co-creation and front-office digitization is growing in Fortune 1000 companies +80B API Invocations per day APIs registered across a multitude of business areas API-centric model is at the core of mature born-on-the-web companies like Amazon, Google, and facebook Registrations in Programmable Web have more than doubled this year. At that pace we could see more than 100,000 APIs registered by 2016. By 2014, Gartner predicts that 75% of Fortune 1000 companies will expose some form of APIs
  30. 30. The API-centric, as-a-Service delivery is disrupting the consumption of business services as Cloud disrupted the IT consumption model Integrated Business Functions Business Solutions API-centric Business Services Packaged Applications As-a-service delivery Custom Development Composable Web Long Project Planning and Development Short Innovation Lifecycle API API
  31. 31. The Web beyond the Browser Web APIs are the new, fast-growing business channel Businesses Are Evolving stores (800) ###s web sites Not having an APIs will be like not having a Web Site in the 90s “$7bn worth of items items on eBay through APIs” “$7bn worth of on eBay through APIs” Mark Carges (Ebay CTO) Mark Carges (Ebay CTO) The API which has easily 10 times more traffic then the website, has been really very important to us.” Biz Stone (Co-founder, Twitter) “The adoption of Amazon’s Web services is currently driving more network activity then everything Amazon does through their traditional web sites.” Jeff Bar (Amazon evangelist) / Dion Hinchcliffe (Journalist)
  32. 32. New types of systems are being developed using different engagement models Systems of Record Focus on Transactional integrity Optimized performance Quality of Service Data Security Typically a dedicated infrastructure Pre-allocated capacity Systems of Engagement Focus on Agility and Rapid Scale Workload mobility Homogeneous standardization Management simplicity Shared infrastructure Pay as you go capacity Social platforms and mobility user interface
  33. 33. Questions? : Kerrie holley ; klholley@us.ibm.com twitter.com/kerrieh http://www.facebook.com/KerrieHolley IBM http://www03.ibm.com/developerworks/blogs/pag e/ClientSOA

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