Ian Nockolds - 11th September 2018

1. Planning for
new communities
Ian Nockolds
11th September 2018

2. Housing “Crisis”
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3. Government response
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the The government
has promised
300,000 more
new houses a
year will be
built.

4. BUT what about
community infrastructure?
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5. BUT what about
community infrastructure?
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the
 School places
 Travel & transport
 Community buildings
 Libraries
 Doctors surgeries
 Needs of our aging
population

6. …and when things go wrong
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7. Research has a vital role
to play
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8. Population Ratios
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1-Bed 2-Bed 3-Bed 4+Bed
0 -19 0.00 0.49 0.89 1.03
20 - 30 0.77 0.74 0.58 0.31
31 - 50 0.15 0.37 0.88 1.08
51 - 64 0.08 0.21 0.23 0.41
65 - 74 0.08 0.12 0.11 0.18
75+ 0.15 0.07 0.02 0.04

9. Vehicle Ownership
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10. Pupil Product Ratios
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1-Bed 2-Bed 3-Bed 4+Bed
Pre School Children 0.09 0.32 0.33 0.34
Primary School
Children
0.02 0.19 0.35 0.41
Secondary School
Children
0.00 0.05 0.20 0.25
Post 16 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.08

11. Community Infrastructure
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12. Our Starting Point
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13. Child Product Ratios
0 -19 years old by dwelling size
House Size CPR
1-Bed 0.11
2-Bed 0.60
3-Bed 0.97
4+ Bed 1.12
Overall 0.86
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14. Good quality research
It’s about solving a problem
 What are child yields used for?
- Developer negotiations i.e. Section 106/CIL
- Pupil Place Planning
 Identifying trends
- Affordable Housing
- Urban & Rural Developments
 Can new developments sustain provision?
- Predicting population change
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15. How we do it…
 Step 1: Sampling
 Step 2: Household Survey (Sample or Census)
 Step 3: Data Processing
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16. What we are finding:
The realities of
Population Forecasting
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17. Securing the housebuilding data
 Councils can’t access
basic data on how
many houses have
been built
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18. Anticipating error
 How many bedrooms are there in your property?
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19. Anticipating error
 When is a Primary School pupil not a Primary School
pupil?
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20. Anticipating error
 When they go to a Middle School!
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21. Anticipating error
 How often do you go to your local library?
- Perceived v Actual usage
- Cross Border usage
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Visit
Frequency
Overall 1 2 3 4
Daily 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03
Weekly 0.49 1.00 0.33 0.28 0.74
Monthly 0.66 0.00 0.49 0.69 0.74
Annually 0.33 0.00 0.20 0.34 0.40
Never 1.13 1.00 0.96 1.07 1.24

22. What we are finding:
In terms of actual data
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23. Pupil Product Ratios
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Education Level Per Dwelling
Pre School Children 0.32
Primary School Children 0.30
Secondary School Children 0.16
Post 16 0.05
Other 0.03

24. Pupil Product Ratios
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1-Bed 2-Bed 3-Bed 4+Bed
Pre School Children 0.09 0.32 0.33 0.34
Primary School
Children
0.02 0.19 0.35 0.41
Secondary School
Children
0.00 0.05 0.20 0.25
Post 16 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.08

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29. Primary Yields from
1000 Dwellings
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30. Top Level
Age Profile
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Age in years
Numberofchildren
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
New Build
Census
Yields based on 1000 dwellings

31. Top Level
Age Profile
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Age in years
Numberofchildren
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
New Build
Census
Yields based on 1000 dwellings
New dwellings generate approx.
300 more children than the
Census would suggest

32. The Future
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33. Local Government Resources
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34. Research can play a pivotal role in
planning infrastructure
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Research
Data
300,000
Homes
Infrastructure

35. What is the best approach?
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36. Going forward…
 What do we know about future development?
- What can we learn from existing development?
 Scenario planning
 Single Forecasting Model?
 If “new developments” are different, how long until
they normalise?
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Your questions answered