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Are you prepared for the deep sociodemographic, technological, economic,
and political trends in the next 5-10 years?
Charity Comms Brand Conference
Keynote Presentation
Luba Kassova, Richard Addy
24 October 2013

1	
  
Sofia, Bulgaria in 1997 - where Luba lived

1000%
Inflation

Bulgaria

1.7%

Inflation

UK

Currency collapsed – lives were destroyed
2	
  
16 years later, who would have predicted…

Lowest
EU Inflation
Bulgaria

Highest
EU Inflation
UK

Bulgaria has the lowest EU inflation
3	
  
The Bulgarian currency collapse was a
“Black Swan” event

1997

Bulgarian
currency
collapse

2008

Collapse of
Lehman
Brothers

2001

Twin towers
attacks

2011

London Riots

Black Swans are unpredictable, large impact
events - they change people’s lives overnight
4	
  
So, beware of forecasters who claim to be
certain about future events

10 years?
5 years?
3 years?
now

Sometimes the best we can do is
understand the now… Nowcasting

5	
  
Britain is going through an age of uncertainty
which makes forecasting challenging

6	
  
Respected institutions like the IMF, Treasury
and OBR have consistently made errors

7	
  
Even, the ONS has found population
projection challenging

When will the UK population hit 64 million?

2021
ONS population
projections
In 2003

ONS, 2003-based national population projections

8	
  
Even, the ONS has found population
projection challenging

When will the UK population hit 64 million?

2021

2013

ONS population
projections
In 2003

Actuals

ONS, 2003-based & 2010-based national population projections

9	
  
So you need to
continuously, track
trends, forecasts, and
predictions against
what the latest data
says and what you
observe!
10	
  
Some of the sources for this presentation
We have only
focused on trends
which we believe
are of higher
importance to you
12	
  
Part 1:
Socio-demographic
trends and public
attitudes

13	
  
There is good
news…

14	
  
Self-reported happiness and life satisfaction
will remain stable in the future
Self-reported
happiness

(on a scale of 1 to 10)

7.5
stable
b/n 2004
& 2011
British Social Attitudes Survey, 2012 edition

Satisfaction
with job

(on a scale of 1 to 10)

6.9

7.3

2006

2011

15	
  
New scientific revelations will revolutionise
the thinking about people’s decision-making

16	
  
Emotions will become a consumer/public
measurement currency

Decision Making

95%
unconscious

Gerald Zaltman, How Customers Think (2003)

5%
rational

17	
  
The public will continue to trust charities

How much trust do you have in charities?
(quite a lot/a great deal)

49%

51%

66%

Nov 03

Sep 06

Mar 13

nfpSynergy Charity Awareness Monitor survey, 2003 - 2013; c1000 Adults 16+

18	
  
Young people will increasingly describe
themselves as ‘spiritual’
“I consider myself to be a
spiritual person”
(% agree)

Adults 15+
27% 27%

2002/3 2012

Kantar TGI 2003/03 & 2012

25-34s
22%

27%

2002/3 2012

19	
  
The NHS will continue to have a special
place in public’s heart
1983

1993

2003

2012

Public ranking of
health as a
priority area
for extra gov/t
spend

Top

Top

Top

Top

% of the public who
chose health as a
priority area
for extra government
spend

63%

70%

79%

71%

British Social Attitudes Survey, 2013 edition

20	
  
The number of young people volunteering
might continue to go up
“I have volunteered in the last 3 months, for
a charity or other organisation, or in my
local community”
(% agree)
16-25s
33%
18%

2003

+83%
2013

Between
2003 & 2013

nfpSynergy Charity Awareness Monitor survey; 1000 Adults, 2003, October 2013

21	
  
There are
challenges…

22	
  
Public views on welfare will harden
“Government should spend more on
welfare benefits even if it
leads to higher taxes”
(% agree)

58%
1991

British Social Attitudes Survey, 2013 edition

34%
2012

23	
  
More people will believe that one needs to
help oneself when the ‘going gets tough’
Government
should
redistribute
income
(% agree)

Would like to see more
government spending on
benefits for disabled
people, who cannot work
(% agree)

1991

49%

1996

74%

2012

41%

2011

53%

British Social Attitudes survey, 2012 & 2013 editions

24	
  
Personalisation will be more important
to some but not others
Likelihood that website or email
personalisation will lead to extra donations
18 - 24

44%

9%

4%

58%

29%

More
Likely

55+

26%

No
Difference

Less
Likely

YouGov Survey for Rocket Communication, Nov 2012; 1,441 UK adults online who donated money to charity
last year

25	
  
There will be significant socio-demographic
shifts over the next decade
UK Population changes in million by age
(2013 to 2023)
Baby Boomers

Immigration

+1.6m

+1.5m

Age

0-17

18-28

-0.7m
ONS, 2010-based national population projections

29-40

+1.5m

41-51

+1.4m

52-64

65+

-1.2m
26	
  
Volunteering in the UK will remain lower
than in other countries, but could improve
Volunteering time in the last month

UK

23%

29%

USA

44%

42%

2007

2012

CAF Giving Index 2012, Gallup 2007

27	
  
Concern about health and NHS issues will
rise due to funding pressures
Satisfaction with the NHS overall
(% very/quite satisfied)

+19ppt
-9ppt
between
2001 & 2010

British Social Attitudes Survey, 2013 edition

Between
2010 & 2012
28	
  
Public support for overseas development
aid will continue to decline
Support for increasing overseas aid
(%age who support)

55%

46%

47%

40%

??%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2013

Public attitudes towards development, DFID, 2007 - 2010

29	
  
A significant minority might continue to
reject charity advertising
Charities

Banks
Utility
companies

Advertising
rejectors

31%

31%

28%

Brand
reputation

37%

-55%

-67%

30	
  
Brand reputation from Public Opinion and the Evolving state report YouGov, Sep 2013
Advertising rejectors from The Consumer connections survey, Carat, 11000 sample, July 2012/Marketing week
You can overcome
the challenges…

31	
  
Ensure your brand can show that it ‘cares’.
Allow it to tap into people’s spirituality

32	
  
Evolve your brand around understanding
which emotions lead to action

Will the public
act more if it
keeps feeling
distraught?

Will the public act more if
it feels celebratory about
the outcomes?
33	
  
Use cognitive psychology breakthroughs
to target and nudge audiences

34	
  
Think about audience targeting
strategically
1. What will happen to the
target audience in 10 years
time?
2. Do I understand the
evolving needs of the target
audience?
3. Have I tailored my
communications to these
needs? 	
  
35	
  
Develop fundraising and marketing ideas
around people’s desire to experience
What I have Would I would
been asked prefer to do
to make a
to do to
donation
donate

Gap

Set up
a direct
debit

58%

49%

-9%

Sponsored
Walk/
Cycle/
run

41%

60%

+19%

Charities weathering the storm?, Ben Page, CEO Ipsos-Mori, All Adults, April 2012; 1,004 British Adults

36	
  
Develop fundraising and marketing ideas
around people’s desire to experience
Charity
creates
experience
More receptive
to charity
marketing

Empowered
supporter

Happy person

37	
  
Can brands make us happier?/The Guardian, based on Mood of the Nation research, Jan 2013 in the UK, nationally
representative UK sample of 2,141 people.
Ensure you personalise your approach to
your target audiences

9%

of people do 66% of
the charitable
activity

Big data

Britain’s Civic Core – Who are the people powering Britain’s charities?, CAF, Sep 2013

38	
  
Part 2:
Technological
trends

39	
  
There is good
news…

40	
  
Technological make up of the home is
being enhanced
Penetration amongst UK adults

80%
Internet

56%
Laptop/
netbook

Year
on year

Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013

51%

24%

smartphone

tablet

100%
on
2011

118%
yoy

41	
  
Media multi-tasking will eventually
become the norm
Regular media
multi-taskers

53%

Regular
‘stackers’

49%

Regular
‘meshers’

25%

UK Adults

Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013

42	
  
Technology has made instant and
impulsive giving easier than ever

58%
Traffic from
mobile
devices

42%
Traffic from
traditional
desktop
computers

“We can see that mobile is driving
unprecedented levels of generosity”
Anna Kuriakose, Head of product, JustGiving

Marathon runners hot mobile giving milestone, JustGiving, 22 April 2013

43	
  
Social media, technology & stories will
continue to get people to raise money
independently

$67
million

44	
  
http://www.giveforward.com/p/cancer-fundraising
There are
challenges…

45	
  
TV, which is an expensive marketing tool,
will remain the most consumed medium

104h

122h

a month

a month

2004

2012

Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013

46	
  
Technology will continue to contribute to
people experiencing information overload
‘I feel bombarded by
advertising
(% agree)

Kantar TGI, 2003/4 & 2012

39%

46%

2003/4

15-24s

2012

47	
  
Understanding
what is going on!

48	
  
You can overcome
the challenges…

49	
  
Clarity and simplicity are going to be key
to brand success

Health leaflets at a GP reception in SW London – no message stands out

50	
  
Ensure your brand has a strong digital
pulse
UK
Ad
Rejectors Adults

Opportunity

% who visit
profile or fan
pages
of brands

21%

16%

+5%

% who interact
with a brand
online

19%

11%

+6%

“How brands overcome risk of rejection”, Marketing Week; 26 July 2012 By David Burrows

51	
  
Innovate for portable internet enabled
devices, particularly for Tablets

52	
  
Think in terms of integrated marketing
to reflect changing behaviour

“I am a regular media multi-tasker
whilst I watch TV”
UK
Adults

53%

Smartphone
users

Tablet
users

74%

81%

Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013

53	
  
If you are able to afford it, use TV as well
as below the line marketing

122

35

Internet
TV
viewing hours hours spent
by laptop and
a month
PC users a
month
Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013

32

Hours
spent on
tablet per
month
54	
  
Part 3:
Economic trends

55	
  
There is good
news…

56	
  
The general mood will continue to be less
pessimistic and for some groups more optimistic

57	
  
Unemployment numbers are falling and this
is forecast to continue

58	
  
House prices and mortgages are likely to
continue their rises in the short term

59	
  
Pensioner incomes look set to continue
their recent increases

60	
  
There are
challenges…

61	
  
Another housing boom could be followed by
an inevitable bust

62	
  
Another housing boom could be followed by
an inevitable bust

63	
  
Another housing boom could be followed by
an inevitable bust

64	
  
Another housing boom could be followed by
an inevitable bust

65	
  
Another housing boom could be followed by
an inevitable bust

66	
  
Fewer and fewer young people will live in
family owned homes

Just under

70%

(1992)

25-34
Year
olds

Just over
40%
(2012)

67	
  
The multiple pressures on young people will
remain

68	
  
British family and disposable incomes are
experiences an unprecedented squeeze

69	
  
Inequalities will continue to grow

70	
  
Inequalities will continue to grow

71	
  
The economic danger of a sharp rise in
interest rates will be a constant worry

Daily Telegraph on the Office of Budget Responsibility report - Economic and Fiscal Outlook, March 2013

72	
  
The economic danger of a sharp rise in
interest rates will be a constant worry

£1,286 bn

National Debt (2013/14)

£1,637 bn

National Debt (2017/18)
Cost of interest
payments
payments in
2017/18

£71bn

Office of Budget Responsibility, Economic and Fiscal Outlook, March 2013

73	
  
The public sector will continue to face
austerity.

74	
  
The public will continue to scrutinise
charity funds
% agree
“Ensure a reasonable proportion of
donations get to end cause”

30%

32%

42%

43%

2005

2008

2010

2012

Is the top driver of trust and confidence
Charities weathering the storm?, Ben Page, CEO Ipsos-Mori, All Adults, April 2012; 1,004 British Adults

75	
  
Public donations will continue to be under
pressure
Amount donated to charities by adults
down
in cash
terms

£11bn

£9.3bn

£1.7bn
down
in real
terms

2010/11

Source: UK Giving 2012, NCVO/CAF

2011/12

£2.3bn
76	
  
You can overcome
the challenges…

77	
  
Acknowledge the public’s sustained top
concerns in brand comms to stay relevant
Top 10 Worries in 2012

49%

38%

35%

24%

23%

Money/
Bank balance/
debt

Family/
Friends

Physical
Health

Job
Security

Appearance/
Ageing

23%

19%

19%

16%

14%

World
Affairs

Mortgage/
Rent/
Housing

Workplace Ability to cope Domestic
issues
emotionally
Politics
YouGov survey for The Samaritans, Nov 2012; 2,162 UK Adults

78	
  
Pay greater attention to customer service
and journeys’ online and face to face

YouGov Survey for Sirportly, Feb 2013; 2,099 UK Adults

79	
  
Build on the the last decade’s success in
generating earned income
2000/01

2011/12

(£bn 2011 prices) (£bn, 2011 prices)

Change

Voluntary
income

14

15

+3%

Earned
Income

11

21

+92%

3

2

-23%

Investment
income

NCVO, UK Civil Society Almanac, http://data.ncvo-vol.org.uk/a/almanac13/almanac/databank/income-2/

80	
  
Innovate and don’t apologise for it

81	
  
Plan actively manage your investments

82	
  
Plan actively manage your investments

83	
  
Don’t forget high net worth individuals

84	
  
Engage in companies who want to partner
to unlock their potential
Why companies & NGOs engage in
relationships win each other (top 3 reasons)
Companies

NGOs

Reputation/
Credibility

91%

Access to
Funds

Innovation

67%

Access to People/
Contacts

83%

Access to
Knowledge

63%

Reputation/
Credibility

65%

Marketing Week, Two heads are better than one, 12 September 2013
http://www.marketingweek.co.uk/trends/why-two-heads-are-better-than-one/4007792.article

100%

85	
  
Part 4:
Political trends

86	
  
There is good
news…

87	
  
The public will continue to have a stronger
connection with local politics
I want a great deal or some influence over
2009

25%

14%

2013

26%

16%

Local
decision
making

National
decision
making

Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013

88	
  
The public will continue to be more satisfied
with their local MP compared to all MPs
I’m very or fairly satisfied with…
2009

41%

34%

2013

32%

23%

My
Local MP

All
MPs

Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013

89	
  
The ethnic difference in interest in politics
will continue to be non-existent
I am very or fairly interested in politics
2004

52%

27%

25%

2013

41%

45%

4%

White

Ethnic
Minorities

Difference

Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013

90	
  
There are
challenges…

91	
  
The disenchantment with politics is likely
to continue

92	
  
Interest in politics are at record lows.
I am very or fairly interested in politics

50%

53%

2004

2005

56%

2006

54%

2007

51%

52%

2008

2009

Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013

53%

58%
42%

2010

2011

42%

2012

2013

93	
  
There is a real danger that less than 50% of
the electorate will vote in the 2015 election
I am absolutely certain or high likely to vote
in an immediate general election

65%

66%

GE:
61%

69%

69%

64%

66%

67%

GE:
65%

69%
57%

50%
52%

??

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013

94	
  
Despite preferences for their local MP, very
few can name their local MP
Correctly named their local MP

42%

44%

44%

38%

22%

2004

2007

2010

2011

2013

Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013

95	
  
Politics is fragmenting with smaller parties
getting more votes
Non Conservative/ Labour votes in
General Elections

11%

19%

24%

28%

35%

??

1970

1979

1992

2001

2010

2020

AKAS analysis of General Election results

96	
  
Charities are not as influential as others
Have a fair amount of influence on
government policy, 2013

68%

53%

51%

19%

Private
Companies

Consultants

Trade
Unions

Charities

YouGov survey for Acevo, 2013; 1,660 Adults, http://www.thirdsector.co.uk/Policy_and_Politics/article/
1210189/public-trusts-charities-lobby-good-society-lobbyists-says-acevo/

97	
  
In fact, the majority thinks charities have
no influence on government policy
Influence of charities on
government policy, 2013

63%

19%

No
influence

Fair amount
of influence

YouGov survey for Acevo, 2013; 1,660 Adults, http://www.thirdsector.co.uk/Policy_and_Politics/article/
1210189/public-trusts-charities-lobby-good-society-lobbyists-says-acevo/

98	
  
You can overcome
the challenges…

99	
  
Develop local, more personalised
connections

100	
  
Attempt to fill the democratic deficit by
being the voice of donors, volunteers and
beneficiaries
Trusted to influence government, 2013

49%

28%

Charities

Trade
Unions

16%

8%

Private Consultants
Companies

YouGov survey for Acevo, 2013; 1,660 Adults, http://www.thirdsector.co.uk/Policy_and_Politics/article/
1210189/public-trusts-charities-lobby-good-society-lobbyists-says-acevo/

101	
  
Speak to a wide range of parties

102	
  
And finally…

103	
  
Sofia, Bulgaria in 1997 – What I learned…

In difficult times you need to…
Be Optimistic
Connect
Relate

Be Flexible
Adapt
Scan

Innovate

Plan

104	
  
Thank you!
And enjoy the rest of
the day
Luba@addykassova.com
Richard@addykassova.com

105	
  

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What's coming, and are you ready for it?

  • 1. Are you prepared for the deep sociodemographic, technological, economic, and political trends in the next 5-10 years? Charity Comms Brand Conference Keynote Presentation Luba Kassova, Richard Addy 24 October 2013 1  
  • 2. Sofia, Bulgaria in 1997 - where Luba lived 1000% Inflation Bulgaria 1.7% Inflation UK Currency collapsed – lives were destroyed 2  
  • 3. 16 years later, who would have predicted… Lowest EU Inflation Bulgaria Highest EU Inflation UK Bulgaria has the lowest EU inflation 3  
  • 4. The Bulgarian currency collapse was a “Black Swan” event 1997 Bulgarian currency collapse 2008 Collapse of Lehman Brothers 2001 Twin towers attacks 2011 London Riots Black Swans are unpredictable, large impact events - they change people’s lives overnight 4  
  • 5. So, beware of forecasters who claim to be certain about future events 10 years? 5 years? 3 years? now Sometimes the best we can do is understand the now… Nowcasting 5  
  • 6. Britain is going through an age of uncertainty which makes forecasting challenging 6  
  • 7. Respected institutions like the IMF, Treasury and OBR have consistently made errors 7  
  • 8. Even, the ONS has found population projection challenging When will the UK population hit 64 million? 2021 ONS population projections In 2003 ONS, 2003-based national population projections 8  
  • 9. Even, the ONS has found population projection challenging When will the UK population hit 64 million? 2021 2013 ONS population projections In 2003 Actuals ONS, 2003-based & 2010-based national population projections 9  
  • 10. So you need to continuously, track trends, forecasts, and predictions against what the latest data says and what you observe! 10  
  • 11. Some of the sources for this presentation
  • 12. We have only focused on trends which we believe are of higher importance to you 12  
  • 13. Part 1: Socio-demographic trends and public attitudes 13  
  • 15. Self-reported happiness and life satisfaction will remain stable in the future Self-reported happiness (on a scale of 1 to 10) 7.5 stable b/n 2004 & 2011 British Social Attitudes Survey, 2012 edition Satisfaction with job (on a scale of 1 to 10) 6.9 7.3 2006 2011 15  
  • 16. New scientific revelations will revolutionise the thinking about people’s decision-making 16  
  • 17. Emotions will become a consumer/public measurement currency Decision Making 95% unconscious Gerald Zaltman, How Customers Think (2003) 5% rational 17  
  • 18. The public will continue to trust charities How much trust do you have in charities? (quite a lot/a great deal) 49% 51% 66% Nov 03 Sep 06 Mar 13 nfpSynergy Charity Awareness Monitor survey, 2003 - 2013; c1000 Adults 16+ 18  
  • 19. Young people will increasingly describe themselves as ‘spiritual’ “I consider myself to be a spiritual person” (% agree) Adults 15+ 27% 27% 2002/3 2012 Kantar TGI 2003/03 & 2012 25-34s 22% 27% 2002/3 2012 19  
  • 20. The NHS will continue to have a special place in public’s heart 1983 1993 2003 2012 Public ranking of health as a priority area for extra gov/t spend Top Top Top Top % of the public who chose health as a priority area for extra government spend 63% 70% 79% 71% British Social Attitudes Survey, 2013 edition 20  
  • 21. The number of young people volunteering might continue to go up “I have volunteered in the last 3 months, for a charity or other organisation, or in my local community” (% agree) 16-25s 33% 18% 2003 +83% 2013 Between 2003 & 2013 nfpSynergy Charity Awareness Monitor survey; 1000 Adults, 2003, October 2013 21  
  • 23. Public views on welfare will harden “Government should spend more on welfare benefits even if it leads to higher taxes” (% agree) 58% 1991 British Social Attitudes Survey, 2013 edition 34% 2012 23  
  • 24. More people will believe that one needs to help oneself when the ‘going gets tough’ Government should redistribute income (% agree) Would like to see more government spending on benefits for disabled people, who cannot work (% agree) 1991 49% 1996 74% 2012 41% 2011 53% British Social Attitudes survey, 2012 & 2013 editions 24  
  • 25. Personalisation will be more important to some but not others Likelihood that website or email personalisation will lead to extra donations 18 - 24 44% 9% 4% 58% 29% More Likely 55+ 26% No Difference Less Likely YouGov Survey for Rocket Communication, Nov 2012; 1,441 UK adults online who donated money to charity last year 25  
  • 26. There will be significant socio-demographic shifts over the next decade UK Population changes in million by age (2013 to 2023) Baby Boomers Immigration +1.6m +1.5m Age 0-17 18-28 -0.7m ONS, 2010-based national population projections 29-40 +1.5m 41-51 +1.4m 52-64 65+ -1.2m 26  
  • 27. Volunteering in the UK will remain lower than in other countries, but could improve Volunteering time in the last month UK 23% 29% USA 44% 42% 2007 2012 CAF Giving Index 2012, Gallup 2007 27  
  • 28. Concern about health and NHS issues will rise due to funding pressures Satisfaction with the NHS overall (% very/quite satisfied) +19ppt -9ppt between 2001 & 2010 British Social Attitudes Survey, 2013 edition Between 2010 & 2012 28  
  • 29. Public support for overseas development aid will continue to decline Support for increasing overseas aid (%age who support) 55% 46% 47% 40% ??% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 Public attitudes towards development, DFID, 2007 - 2010 29  
  • 30. A significant minority might continue to reject charity advertising Charities Banks Utility companies Advertising rejectors 31% 31% 28% Brand reputation 37% -55% -67% 30   Brand reputation from Public Opinion and the Evolving state report YouGov, Sep 2013 Advertising rejectors from The Consumer connections survey, Carat, 11000 sample, July 2012/Marketing week
  • 31. You can overcome the challenges… 31  
  • 32. Ensure your brand can show that it ‘cares’. Allow it to tap into people’s spirituality 32  
  • 33. Evolve your brand around understanding which emotions lead to action Will the public act more if it keeps feeling distraught? Will the public act more if it feels celebratory about the outcomes? 33  
  • 34. Use cognitive psychology breakthroughs to target and nudge audiences 34  
  • 35. Think about audience targeting strategically 1. What will happen to the target audience in 10 years time? 2. Do I understand the evolving needs of the target audience? 3. Have I tailored my communications to these needs?   35  
  • 36. Develop fundraising and marketing ideas around people’s desire to experience What I have Would I would been asked prefer to do to make a to do to donation donate Gap Set up a direct debit 58% 49% -9% Sponsored Walk/ Cycle/ run 41% 60% +19% Charities weathering the storm?, Ben Page, CEO Ipsos-Mori, All Adults, April 2012; 1,004 British Adults 36  
  • 37. Develop fundraising and marketing ideas around people’s desire to experience Charity creates experience More receptive to charity marketing Empowered supporter Happy person 37   Can brands make us happier?/The Guardian, based on Mood of the Nation research, Jan 2013 in the UK, nationally representative UK sample of 2,141 people.
  • 38. Ensure you personalise your approach to your target audiences 9% of people do 66% of the charitable activity Big data Britain’s Civic Core – Who are the people powering Britain’s charities?, CAF, Sep 2013 38  
  • 41. Technological make up of the home is being enhanced Penetration amongst UK adults 80% Internet 56% Laptop/ netbook Year on year Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013 51% 24% smartphone tablet 100% on 2011 118% yoy 41  
  • 42. Media multi-tasking will eventually become the norm Regular media multi-taskers 53% Regular ‘stackers’ 49% Regular ‘meshers’ 25% UK Adults Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013 42  
  • 43. Technology has made instant and impulsive giving easier than ever 58% Traffic from mobile devices 42% Traffic from traditional desktop computers “We can see that mobile is driving unprecedented levels of generosity” Anna Kuriakose, Head of product, JustGiving Marathon runners hot mobile giving milestone, JustGiving, 22 April 2013 43  
  • 44. Social media, technology & stories will continue to get people to raise money independently $67 million 44   http://www.giveforward.com/p/cancer-fundraising
  • 46. TV, which is an expensive marketing tool, will remain the most consumed medium 104h 122h a month a month 2004 2012 Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013 46  
  • 47. Technology will continue to contribute to people experiencing information overload ‘I feel bombarded by advertising (% agree) Kantar TGI, 2003/4 & 2012 39% 46% 2003/4 15-24s 2012 47  
  • 49. You can overcome the challenges… 49  
  • 50. Clarity and simplicity are going to be key to brand success Health leaflets at a GP reception in SW London – no message stands out 50  
  • 51. Ensure your brand has a strong digital pulse UK Ad Rejectors Adults Opportunity % who visit profile or fan pages of brands 21% 16% +5% % who interact with a brand online 19% 11% +6% “How brands overcome risk of rejection”, Marketing Week; 26 July 2012 By David Burrows 51  
  • 52. Innovate for portable internet enabled devices, particularly for Tablets 52  
  • 53. Think in terms of integrated marketing to reflect changing behaviour “I am a regular media multi-tasker whilst I watch TV” UK Adults 53% Smartphone users Tablet users 74% 81% Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013 53  
  • 54. If you are able to afford it, use TV as well as below the line marketing 122 35 Internet TV viewing hours hours spent by laptop and a month PC users a month Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013 32 Hours spent on tablet per month 54  
  • 57. The general mood will continue to be less pessimistic and for some groups more optimistic 57  
  • 58. Unemployment numbers are falling and this is forecast to continue 58  
  • 59. House prices and mortgages are likely to continue their rises in the short term 59  
  • 60. Pensioner incomes look set to continue their recent increases 60  
  • 62. Another housing boom could be followed by an inevitable bust 62  
  • 63. Another housing boom could be followed by an inevitable bust 63  
  • 64. Another housing boom could be followed by an inevitable bust 64  
  • 65. Another housing boom could be followed by an inevitable bust 65  
  • 66. Another housing boom could be followed by an inevitable bust 66  
  • 67. Fewer and fewer young people will live in family owned homes Just under 70% (1992) 25-34 Year olds Just over 40% (2012) 67  
  • 68. The multiple pressures on young people will remain 68  
  • 69. British family and disposable incomes are experiences an unprecedented squeeze 69  
  • 70. Inequalities will continue to grow 70  
  • 71. Inequalities will continue to grow 71  
  • 72. The economic danger of a sharp rise in interest rates will be a constant worry Daily Telegraph on the Office of Budget Responsibility report - Economic and Fiscal Outlook, March 2013 72  
  • 73. The economic danger of a sharp rise in interest rates will be a constant worry £1,286 bn National Debt (2013/14) £1,637 bn National Debt (2017/18) Cost of interest payments payments in 2017/18 £71bn Office of Budget Responsibility, Economic and Fiscal Outlook, March 2013 73  
  • 74. The public sector will continue to face austerity. 74  
  • 75. The public will continue to scrutinise charity funds % agree “Ensure a reasonable proportion of donations get to end cause” 30% 32% 42% 43% 2005 2008 2010 2012 Is the top driver of trust and confidence Charities weathering the storm?, Ben Page, CEO Ipsos-Mori, All Adults, April 2012; 1,004 British Adults 75  
  • 76. Public donations will continue to be under pressure Amount donated to charities by adults down in cash terms £11bn £9.3bn £1.7bn down in real terms 2010/11 Source: UK Giving 2012, NCVO/CAF 2011/12 £2.3bn 76  
  • 77. You can overcome the challenges… 77  
  • 78. Acknowledge the public’s sustained top concerns in brand comms to stay relevant Top 10 Worries in 2012 49% 38% 35% 24% 23% Money/ Bank balance/ debt Family/ Friends Physical Health Job Security Appearance/ Ageing 23% 19% 19% 16% 14% World Affairs Mortgage/ Rent/ Housing Workplace Ability to cope Domestic issues emotionally Politics YouGov survey for The Samaritans, Nov 2012; 2,162 UK Adults 78  
  • 79. Pay greater attention to customer service and journeys’ online and face to face YouGov Survey for Sirportly, Feb 2013; 2,099 UK Adults 79  
  • 80. Build on the the last decade’s success in generating earned income 2000/01 2011/12 (£bn 2011 prices) (£bn, 2011 prices) Change Voluntary income 14 15 +3% Earned Income 11 21 +92% 3 2 -23% Investment income NCVO, UK Civil Society Almanac, http://data.ncvo-vol.org.uk/a/almanac13/almanac/databank/income-2/ 80  
  • 81. Innovate and don’t apologise for it 81  
  • 82. Plan actively manage your investments 82  
  • 83. Plan actively manage your investments 83  
  • 84. Don’t forget high net worth individuals 84  
  • 85. Engage in companies who want to partner to unlock their potential Why companies & NGOs engage in relationships win each other (top 3 reasons) Companies NGOs Reputation/ Credibility 91% Access to Funds Innovation 67% Access to People/ Contacts 83% Access to Knowledge 63% Reputation/ Credibility 65% Marketing Week, Two heads are better than one, 12 September 2013 http://www.marketingweek.co.uk/trends/why-two-heads-are-better-than-one/4007792.article 100% 85  
  • 88. The public will continue to have a stronger connection with local politics I want a great deal or some influence over 2009 25% 14% 2013 26% 16% Local decision making National decision making Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013 88  
  • 89. The public will continue to be more satisfied with their local MP compared to all MPs I’m very or fairly satisfied with… 2009 41% 34% 2013 32% 23% My Local MP All MPs Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013 89  
  • 90. The ethnic difference in interest in politics will continue to be non-existent I am very or fairly interested in politics 2004 52% 27% 25% 2013 41% 45% 4% White Ethnic Minorities Difference Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013 90  
  • 92. The disenchantment with politics is likely to continue 92  
  • 93. Interest in politics are at record lows. I am very or fairly interested in politics 50% 53% 2004 2005 56% 2006 54% 2007 51% 52% 2008 2009 Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013 53% 58% 42% 2010 2011 42% 2012 2013 93  
  • 94. There is a real danger that less than 50% of the electorate will vote in the 2015 election I am absolutely certain or high likely to vote in an immediate general election 65% 66% GE: 61% 69% 69% 64% 66% 67% GE: 65% 69% 57% 50% 52% ?? 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013 94  
  • 95. Despite preferences for their local MP, very few can name their local MP Correctly named their local MP 42% 44% 44% 38% 22% 2004 2007 2010 2011 2013 Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013 95  
  • 96. Politics is fragmenting with smaller parties getting more votes Non Conservative/ Labour votes in General Elections 11% 19% 24% 28% 35% ?? 1970 1979 1992 2001 2010 2020 AKAS analysis of General Election results 96  
  • 97. Charities are not as influential as others Have a fair amount of influence on government policy, 2013 68% 53% 51% 19% Private Companies Consultants Trade Unions Charities YouGov survey for Acevo, 2013; 1,660 Adults, http://www.thirdsector.co.uk/Policy_and_Politics/article/ 1210189/public-trusts-charities-lobby-good-society-lobbyists-says-acevo/ 97  
  • 98. In fact, the majority thinks charities have no influence on government policy Influence of charities on government policy, 2013 63% 19% No influence Fair amount of influence YouGov survey for Acevo, 2013; 1,660 Adults, http://www.thirdsector.co.uk/Policy_and_Politics/article/ 1210189/public-trusts-charities-lobby-good-society-lobbyists-says-acevo/ 98  
  • 99. You can overcome the challenges… 99  
  • 100. Develop local, more personalised connections 100  
  • 101. Attempt to fill the democratic deficit by being the voice of donors, volunteers and beneficiaries Trusted to influence government, 2013 49% 28% Charities Trade Unions 16% 8% Private Consultants Companies YouGov survey for Acevo, 2013; 1,660 Adults, http://www.thirdsector.co.uk/Policy_and_Politics/article/ 1210189/public-trusts-charities-lobby-good-society-lobbyists-says-acevo/ 101  
  • 102. Speak to a wide range of parties 102  
  • 104. Sofia, Bulgaria in 1997 – What I learned… In difficult times you need to… Be Optimistic Connect Relate Be Flexible Adapt Scan Innovate Plan 104  
  • 105. Thank you! And enjoy the rest of the day Luba@addykassova.com Richard@addykassova.com 105