1. Are you prepared for the deep sociodemographic, technological, economic,
and political trends in the next 5-10 years?
Charity Comms Brand Conference
Keynote Presentation
Luba Kassova, Richard Addy
24 October 2013
1
2. Sofia, Bulgaria in 1997 - where Luba lived
1000%
Inflation
Bulgaria
1.7%
Inflation
UK
Currency collapsed – lives were destroyed
2
3. 16 years later, who would have predicted…
Lowest
EU Inflation
Bulgaria
Highest
EU Inflation
UK
Bulgaria has the lowest EU inflation
3
4. The Bulgarian currency collapse was a
“Black Swan” event
1997
Bulgarian
currency
collapse
2008
Collapse of
Lehman
Brothers
2001
Twin towers
attacks
2011
London Riots
Black Swans are unpredictable, large impact
events - they change people’s lives overnight
4
5. So, beware of forecasters who claim to be
certain about future events
10 years?
5 years?
3 years?
now
Sometimes the best we can do is
understand the now… Nowcasting
5
6. Britain is going through an age of uncertainty
which makes forecasting challenging
6
8. Even, the ONS has found population
projection challenging
When will the UK population hit 64 million?
2021
ONS population
projections
In 2003
ONS, 2003-based national population projections
8
9. Even, the ONS has found population
projection challenging
When will the UK population hit 64 million?
2021
2013
ONS population
projections
In 2003
Actuals
ONS, 2003-based & 2010-based national population projections
9
10. So you need to
continuously, track
trends, forecasts, and
predictions against
what the latest data
says and what you
observe!
10
15. Self-reported happiness and life satisfaction
will remain stable in the future
Self-reported
happiness
(on a scale of 1 to 10)
7.5
stable
b/n 2004
& 2011
British Social Attitudes Survey, 2012 edition
Satisfaction
with job
(on a scale of 1 to 10)
6.9
7.3
2006
2011
15
17. Emotions will become a consumer/public
measurement currency
Decision Making
95%
unconscious
Gerald Zaltman, How Customers Think (2003)
5%
rational
17
18. The public will continue to trust charities
How much trust do you have in charities?
(quite a lot/a great deal)
49%
51%
66%
Nov 03
Sep 06
Mar 13
nfpSynergy Charity Awareness Monitor survey, 2003 - 2013; c1000 Adults 16+
18
19. Young people will increasingly describe
themselves as ‘spiritual’
“I consider myself to be a
spiritual person”
(% agree)
Adults 15+
27% 27%
2002/3 2012
Kantar TGI 2003/03 & 2012
25-34s
22%
27%
2002/3 2012
19
20. The NHS will continue to have a special
place in public’s heart
1983
1993
2003
2012
Public ranking of
health as a
priority area
for extra gov/t
spend
Top
Top
Top
Top
% of the public who
chose health as a
priority area
for extra government
spend
63%
70%
79%
71%
British Social Attitudes Survey, 2013 edition
20
21. The number of young people volunteering
might continue to go up
“I have volunteered in the last 3 months, for
a charity or other organisation, or in my
local community”
(% agree)
16-25s
33%
18%
2003
+83%
2013
Between
2003 & 2013
nfpSynergy Charity Awareness Monitor survey; 1000 Adults, 2003, October 2013
21
23. Public views on welfare will harden
“Government should spend more on
welfare benefits even if it
leads to higher taxes”
(% agree)
58%
1991
British Social Attitudes Survey, 2013 edition
34%
2012
23
24. More people will believe that one needs to
help oneself when the ‘going gets tough’
Government
should
redistribute
income
(% agree)
Would like to see more
government spending on
benefits for disabled
people, who cannot work
(% agree)
1991
49%
1996
74%
2012
41%
2011
53%
British Social Attitudes survey, 2012 & 2013 editions
24
25. Personalisation will be more important
to some but not others
Likelihood that website or email
personalisation will lead to extra donations
18 - 24
44%
9%
4%
58%
29%
More
Likely
55+
26%
No
Difference
Less
Likely
YouGov Survey for Rocket Communication, Nov 2012; 1,441 UK adults online who donated money to charity
last year
25
26. There will be significant socio-demographic
shifts over the next decade
UK Population changes in million by age
(2013 to 2023)
Baby Boomers
Immigration
+1.6m
+1.5m
Age
0-17
18-28
-0.7m
ONS, 2010-based national population projections
29-40
+1.5m
41-51
+1.4m
52-64
65+
-1.2m
26
27. Volunteering in the UK will remain lower
than in other countries, but could improve
Volunteering time in the last month
UK
23%
29%
USA
44%
42%
2007
2012
CAF Giving Index 2012, Gallup 2007
27
28. Concern about health and NHS issues will
rise due to funding pressures
Satisfaction with the NHS overall
(% very/quite satisfied)
+19ppt
-9ppt
between
2001 & 2010
British Social Attitudes Survey, 2013 edition
Between
2010 & 2012
28
29. Public support for overseas development
aid will continue to decline
Support for increasing overseas aid
(%age who support)
55%
46%
47%
40%
??%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2013
Public attitudes towards development, DFID, 2007 - 2010
29
30. A significant minority might continue to
reject charity advertising
Charities
Banks
Utility
companies
Advertising
rejectors
31%
31%
28%
Brand
reputation
37%
-55%
-67%
30
Brand reputation from Public Opinion and the Evolving state report YouGov, Sep 2013
Advertising rejectors from The Consumer connections survey, Carat, 11000 sample, July 2012/Marketing week
32. Ensure your brand can show that it ‘cares’.
Allow it to tap into people’s spirituality
32
33. Evolve your brand around understanding
which emotions lead to action
Will the public
act more if it
keeps feeling
distraught?
Will the public act more if
it feels celebratory about
the outcomes?
33
35. Think about audience targeting
strategically
1. What will happen to the
target audience in 10 years
time?
2. Do I understand the
evolving needs of the target
audience?
3. Have I tailored my
communications to these
needs?
35
36. Develop fundraising and marketing ideas
around people’s desire to experience
What I have Would I would
been asked prefer to do
to make a
to do to
donation
donate
Gap
Set up
a direct
debit
58%
49%
-9%
Sponsored
Walk/
Cycle/
run
41%
60%
+19%
Charities weathering the storm?, Ben Page, CEO Ipsos-Mori, All Adults, April 2012; 1,004 British Adults
36
37. Develop fundraising and marketing ideas
around people’s desire to experience
Charity
creates
experience
More receptive
to charity
marketing
Empowered
supporter
Happy person
37
Can brands make us happier?/The Guardian, based on Mood of the Nation research, Jan 2013 in the UK, nationally
representative UK sample of 2,141 people.
38. Ensure you personalise your approach to
your target audiences
9%
of people do 66% of
the charitable
activity
Big data
Britain’s Civic Core – Who are the people powering Britain’s charities?, CAF, Sep 2013
38
41. Technological make up of the home is
being enhanced
Penetration amongst UK adults
80%
Internet
56%
Laptop/
netbook
Year
on year
Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013
51%
24%
smartphone
tablet
100%
on
2011
118%
yoy
41
42. Media multi-tasking will eventually
become the norm
Regular media
multi-taskers
53%
Regular
‘stackers’
49%
Regular
‘meshers’
25%
UK Adults
Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013
42
43. Technology has made instant and
impulsive giving easier than ever
58%
Traffic from
mobile
devices
42%
Traffic from
traditional
desktop
computers
“We can see that mobile is driving
unprecedented levels of generosity”
Anna Kuriakose, Head of product, JustGiving
Marathon runners hot mobile giving milestone, JustGiving, 22 April 2013
43
44. Social media, technology & stories will
continue to get people to raise money
independently
$67
million
44
http://www.giveforward.com/p/cancer-fundraising
46. TV, which is an expensive marketing tool,
will remain the most consumed medium
104h
122h
a month
a month
2004
2012
Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013
46
47. Technology will continue to contribute to
people experiencing information overload
‘I feel bombarded by
advertising
(% agree)
Kantar TGI, 2003/4 & 2012
39%
46%
2003/4
15-24s
2012
47
50. Clarity and simplicity are going to be key
to brand success
Health leaflets at a GP reception in SW London – no message stands out
50
51. Ensure your brand has a strong digital
pulse
UK
Ad
Rejectors Adults
Opportunity
% who visit
profile or fan
pages
of brands
21%
16%
+5%
% who interact
with a brand
online
19%
11%
+6%
“How brands overcome risk of rejection”, Marketing Week; 26 July 2012 By David Burrows
51
53. Think in terms of integrated marketing
to reflect changing behaviour
“I am a regular media multi-tasker
whilst I watch TV”
UK
Adults
53%
Smartphone
users
Tablet
users
74%
81%
Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013
53
54. If you are able to afford it, use TV as well
as below the line marketing
122
35
Internet
TV
viewing hours hours spent
by laptop and
a month
PC users a
month
Ofcom Communications Market report, Aug 2013
32
Hours
spent on
tablet per
month
54
72. The economic danger of a sharp rise in
interest rates will be a constant worry
Daily Telegraph on the Office of Budget Responsibility report - Economic and Fiscal Outlook, March 2013
72
73. The economic danger of a sharp rise in
interest rates will be a constant worry
£1,286 bn
National Debt (2013/14)
£1,637 bn
National Debt (2017/18)
Cost of interest
payments
payments in
2017/18
£71bn
Office of Budget Responsibility, Economic and Fiscal Outlook, March 2013
73
75. The public will continue to scrutinise
charity funds
% agree
“Ensure a reasonable proportion of
donations get to end cause”
30%
32%
42%
43%
2005
2008
2010
2012
Is the top driver of trust and confidence
Charities weathering the storm?, Ben Page, CEO Ipsos-Mori, All Adults, April 2012; 1,004 British Adults
75
76. Public donations will continue to be under
pressure
Amount donated to charities by adults
down
in cash
terms
£11bn
£9.3bn
£1.7bn
down
in real
terms
2010/11
Source: UK Giving 2012, NCVO/CAF
2011/12
£2.3bn
76
78. Acknowledge the public’s sustained top
concerns in brand comms to stay relevant
Top 10 Worries in 2012
49%
38%
35%
24%
23%
Money/
Bank balance/
debt
Family/
Friends
Physical
Health
Job
Security
Appearance/
Ageing
23%
19%
19%
16%
14%
World
Affairs
Mortgage/
Rent/
Housing
Workplace Ability to cope Domestic
issues
emotionally
Politics
YouGov survey for The Samaritans, Nov 2012; 2,162 UK Adults
78
79. Pay greater attention to customer service
and journeys’ online and face to face
YouGov Survey for Sirportly, Feb 2013; 2,099 UK Adults
79
80. Build on the the last decade’s success in
generating earned income
2000/01
2011/12
(£bn 2011 prices) (£bn, 2011 prices)
Change
Voluntary
income
14
15
+3%
Earned
Income
11
21
+92%
3
2
-23%
Investment
income
NCVO, UK Civil Society Almanac, http://data.ncvo-vol.org.uk/a/almanac13/almanac/databank/income-2/
80
85. Engage in companies who want to partner
to unlock their potential
Why companies & NGOs engage in
relationships win each other (top 3 reasons)
Companies
NGOs
Reputation/
Credibility
91%
Access to
Funds
Innovation
67%
Access to People/
Contacts
83%
Access to
Knowledge
63%
Reputation/
Credibility
65%
Marketing Week, Two heads are better than one, 12 September 2013
http://www.marketingweek.co.uk/trends/why-two-heads-are-better-than-one/4007792.article
100%
85
88. The public will continue to have a stronger
connection with local politics
I want a great deal or some influence over
2009
25%
14%
2013
26%
16%
Local
decision
making
National
decision
making
Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013
88
89. The public will continue to be more satisfied
with their local MP compared to all MPs
I’m very or fairly satisfied with…
2009
41%
34%
2013
32%
23%
My
Local MP
All
MPs
Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013
89
90. The ethnic difference in interest in politics
will continue to be non-existent
I am very or fairly interested in politics
2004
52%
27%
25%
2013
41%
45%
4%
White
Ethnic
Minorities
Difference
Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013
90
93. Interest in politics are at record lows.
I am very or fairly interested in politics
50%
53%
2004
2005
56%
2006
54%
2007
51%
52%
2008
2009
Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013
53%
58%
42%
2010
2011
42%
2012
2013
93
94. There is a real danger that less than 50% of
the electorate will vote in the 2015 election
I am absolutely certain or high likely to vote
in an immediate general election
65%
66%
GE:
61%
69%
69%
64%
66%
67%
GE:
65%
69%
57%
50%
52%
??
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013
94
95. Despite preferences for their local MP, very
few can name their local MP
Correctly named their local MP
42%
44%
44%
38%
22%
2004
2007
2010
2011
2013
Hansard Society, Audit of Political Engagement, 2013
95
96. Politics is fragmenting with smaller parties
getting more votes
Non Conservative/ Labour votes in
General Elections
11%
19%
24%
28%
35%
??
1970
1979
1992
2001
2010
2020
AKAS analysis of General Election results
96
97. Charities are not as influential as others
Have a fair amount of influence on
government policy, 2013
68%
53%
51%
19%
Private
Companies
Consultants
Trade
Unions
Charities
YouGov survey for Acevo, 2013; 1,660 Adults, http://www.thirdsector.co.uk/Policy_and_Politics/article/
1210189/public-trusts-charities-lobby-good-society-lobbyists-says-acevo/
97
98. In fact, the majority thinks charities have
no influence on government policy
Influence of charities on
government policy, 2013
63%
19%
No
influence
Fair amount
of influence
YouGov survey for Acevo, 2013; 1,660 Adults, http://www.thirdsector.co.uk/Policy_and_Politics/article/
1210189/public-trusts-charities-lobby-good-society-lobbyists-says-acevo/
98
101. Attempt to fill the democratic deficit by
being the voice of donors, volunteers and
beneficiaries
Trusted to influence government, 2013
49%
28%
Charities
Trade
Unions
16%
8%
Private Consultants
Companies
YouGov survey for Acevo, 2013; 1,660 Adults, http://www.thirdsector.co.uk/Policy_and_Politics/article/
1210189/public-trusts-charities-lobby-good-society-lobbyists-says-acevo/
101