This document analyzes the pharmaceutical market in Egypt after the 2011 revolution. It begins with a SWOT analysis, noting Egypt's strategic location but also weaknesses like corruption. Healthcare spending is projected to grow steadily, with the pharmaceutical market reaching $30-36 billion by 2014. The market is currently dominated by multinational firms and generics are expected to grow substantially. Overall the market is forecast to continue growing at a normal rate of around 8-14% annually despite economic changes from the revolution, as healthcare remains a priority for Egyptian consumers.

1. Pharmaceutical Market Evolution
After Egypt’s Revolution
By: Mohamed S. Morsy

2. Business Environment
SWOT Analysis (1)
 Strengths
 The country’s geographical location is good for trade as
Egypt has access to both the Mediterranean and the Red
Sea, not to mention the key Suez canal route, which
connects Europe and Asia.
 The legal system has issued adjudications in favor of
foreign firms, although there are frequent procedural
delays.
(1) Egypt Business Forecast Report, Business Monitor International, Q2/2012, Chapter 4, P. 27, 2012

3. Business Environment
SWOT Analysis
 Weaknesses
 Egypt ranks 112th out of 180 states surveyed in
Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions
Index 2011, comparing unfavorably with regional peers.
 The labor market is relatively inflexible, with Egypt
performing markedly worse than the Organization for
Economic Co-operation and Development average, and
also inferior to the regional average on the World Bank’s
Hiring and Firing Workers index.

4. Business Environment
SWOT Analysis
 Opportunities
 Efforts towards banking-sector consolidation should bring
down the cost of private-sector credit and fuel small
business growth over the long term.

5. Business Environment
SWOT Analysis
 Threats
 Patronage networks impede attempts at fighting
corruption and cutting bureaucracy.
 Although levels of education are relatively high, there is a
considerable mismatch between the skills taught in
schools and those required by most employers.

6. Business Environment
Rank
(1) Adapted from: Egypt Business Forecast Report, Business Monitor International, Q2/2012, Chapter 4, P. 27, 2012
(1)

7. Affected Operations* at Q1/2011
* A slowdown in a company’s business activities, scarcity and/or price appreciation of raw
materials, logistical difficulties affecting the distribution of products and/or obtaining raw
materials, logistical difficulties that led to employees being unable to reach the workplace, etc.

8. Revenue Changes, PPG% - Q1/2011

9. Direct Damages On Assets at Q1/2011

10. Section Conclusion
 After the low probability, high impact event at
Q1/2011, the general business environment is still
not significantly affected except for certain industries.
 The business risk rate is still within the average
global and regional rate and much more higher than
the emerging markets rates.
 Pharmaceutical industry did not show any major
damage in term of affected operations, industry
revenue or direct damage of assets.

12. Health Care and Pharmaceutical Expenditure
 Egypt is the second largest
healthcare market in the MENA
region.
 Healthcare expenditure in the
country in 2010 was estimated
to be EGP 50 bn., or 5.0% of the
GDP.
 Its total health spending on a
per capita basis stood at EGP
650 during the year = EGP 54 /
M. (1)
EGP 390 / Y
EGP 32 .5 /
M
EGP 260 / Y
EGP 21.6 /
M
(1) Adapted from: MENA Healthcare Sector Report, Al Masah Capital Management Limited, P. 28, 2011

13. Healthcare Expenditure Forecast
1
2
2
4
3
6
48
6
0
7
0
8
4
Bn.EGP
%
f = forecast. Source: World Health Organization (WHO), CIA World Fact Book, BMI research
CAGR% = 8.25 by 2014

14. Pharmaceutical Market Structure (Value in bn. EGP)
(1) EGYPT PHARMACEUTICALS & HEALTHCARE REPORT, BMI, P. 15, 2010
(2) IMS Data: MAT/10/2011
Total Value = 18.7 bn. EGP
(1)

15. Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
6
1
2
1
8
24
3
0
3
6
4
2
Bn.EGP
%
f = forecast. Source: Ministry of Health in Egypt, BMI.
The slowdown is a response to changes in the market caused by the 2011 patent
cliff, pricing, higher domestic drug production output and a diversification of drugs
available with competitive prices in the generic drug sector. (CAGR% = 8.4 by 2014)
21

16. Prescription Drug Market Forecast
6
1
2
1
8
24
3
0
3
6
Bn.EGP
%
f = forecast. Source: American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt, IMS Health, BMI.
CAGR% = 7.61 by 2014
The pricing reform for patented and generic medicines will largely affect prescription
drugs.
18

17. Patented Product Market Forecast
3
6
9
12
1
5
2
1
Bn.EGP
1
8
CAGR% = 6.57 by 2014
Cost saving through generic substitution
f = forecast. Source: Local news sources, domestic companies, BMI.
%
13.
5

18. Generic Drug Market Forecast
1.2
2.
4
Bn.EGP
3.
6
4.
8
6
7.
2
8.
4
9.
6
%
CAGR% = 14.1 by 2014
Generics will gradually become popular through public education about medicines.
Prescribing practices also largely determine the size of the generic market
f = forecast. Source: Local news sources, domestic companies, BMI.
4

19. OTC Medicine Market Forecast
3
6
9
12
Bn.EGP
%
f = forecast. Source: Local news sources, domestic companies, BMI.
CAGR% = 11.95 by 2014
Generics will gradually become popular through public education about medicines.
Prescribing practices also largely determine the size of the generic market
4

20. CAGR% by 2014 summary

21. Vision and Opinion
 Based on Egyptian population individual income during
democratic transformation, the personal health care
budget will be placed when necessary.
 Total pharmaceutical market will continue to grow within
its normal growth rate (near to 14%).
 There will a significant shift to generics (GP and Specialty
products) and OTC products to reduce the cost as
possible.
 There is an expected strategic growth from multinationals
by acquisition of local firms.

22. Thank You
Mohamed S. Morsy