This document analyzes Twitter data from May 4th to July 8th to examine how well Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump consolidated support during the party nomination period. It finds that Trump led Clinton in media coverage and Twitter impressions, but his follower growth slowed to match Clinton's pace. Clinton had the most retweeted tweet criticizing Trump, but Trump's response was also popular. Neither candidate appears to be effectively appealing to supporters of opposing candidates who have dropped out. Hashtags may reflect temporary reactions rather than long-term shifts in support.
The fifth edition of the PEORIA Project, "The Year in Echoes" looks back at the year in political conversations and seeks to find the winners and losers in the battle to get campaign messages heard and echoed by the general public. This report includes all social and mainstream media conversations of the 2016 election from March 15, 2015 to January 17, 2016.
Closer scrutiny of data from the social network Twitter would have helped to diagnose and predict the rise of the two outsider candidates in the 2016 presidential election, businessman Donald Trump and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, according to a new Public Echoes Of Rhetoric In America (PEORIA) Project report.
PEORIA Report 3: The GOP Debates Begin, Late Summer 2015GSPMgwu
-WORDS IN EDGEWISE: You can probably guess which candidate dominated the conversation. But you might be surprised at who else has been talked about most.
-BAD, BAD MOOD: We will identify the only candidate for whom mentions with positive sentiments outnumbered those with negative sentiments.
-THE NEW SPIN ROOM: We will display the top three retweets from each party after both debates, and the top retweet from each of the Republican candidates.
-BELTWAY DIFFERENCES: We will distinguish between candidates who got more attention in mainstream than in social media, and vice versa.
-RATINGS: And, as is our custom, we will evaluate how well each candidate’s campaign garnered and leveraged public echoes of what they said during the time period on our scale of 1 to 11.
The inaugural PEORIA Project from George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management, measuring how presidential candidates' messages are resonating and being echoed by the public.
"The Talk About Trump" covers the ways in which boisterous businessman Donald Trump has impacted the presidential race in traditional and social media. Not only has he turned up the volume; he's also managed to change the topic of conversation.
The fifth edition of the PEORIA Project, "The Year in Echoes" looks back at the year in political conversations and seeks to find the winners and losers in the battle to get campaign messages heard and echoed by the general public. This report includes all social and mainstream media conversations of the 2016 election from March 15, 2015 to January 17, 2016.
Closer scrutiny of data from the social network Twitter would have helped to diagnose and predict the rise of the two outsider candidates in the 2016 presidential election, businessman Donald Trump and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, according to a new Public Echoes Of Rhetoric In America (PEORIA) Project report.
PEORIA Report 3: The GOP Debates Begin, Late Summer 2015GSPMgwu
-WORDS IN EDGEWISE: You can probably guess which candidate dominated the conversation. But you might be surprised at who else has been talked about most.
-BAD, BAD MOOD: We will identify the only candidate for whom mentions with positive sentiments outnumbered those with negative sentiments.
-THE NEW SPIN ROOM: We will display the top three retweets from each party after both debates, and the top retweet from each of the Republican candidates.
-BELTWAY DIFFERENCES: We will distinguish between candidates who got more attention in mainstream than in social media, and vice versa.
-RATINGS: And, as is our custom, we will evaluate how well each candidate’s campaign garnered and leveraged public echoes of what they said during the time period on our scale of 1 to 11.
The inaugural PEORIA Project from George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management, measuring how presidential candidates' messages are resonating and being echoed by the public.
"The Talk About Trump" covers the ways in which boisterous businessman Donald Trump has impacted the presidential race in traditional and social media. Not only has he turned up the volume; he's also managed to change the topic of conversation.
What are the opinions of public about trump?OlegGarah
The quantity of Americans who say they hold positive perspectives of President Donald Trump has dropped to its most minimal point since his initiation, as indicated by opinion news. https://eatprayvote.org/
Jacksonville, Florida Sports Talk Radio Station PopularityTaylor Kennedy
This presentation provides the reader with an understanding of the Jacksonville, Florida Sports Radio Landscape in 2019. This presentation shows the reader the top radio stations by survey and Twitter popularity. The presentation also shows you graphics of which radio personalities are most popular between 1010XL / 92.5 FM and ESPN 690.
Certus Insights Special Report: Overview of Polling and Media Coverage on Imp...Natalie Copeland
An in-depth report that reviews the major trends on public attitudes toward the impeachment inquiry, including the latest polling numbers, trends in attitudes since the inquiry announcement, an overview of partisan attitudes, and the impact of impeachment on the President’s approval ratings. The report also details media coverage of the impeachment, examining the amount of coverage, comparisons of the coverage to the Mueller investigation, most shared publications, and most shared news articles.
A Tale of Two Kyles: How Ad Data Exposed My ID TheftKyle J. Britt
In 2010 my identity was stolen. I first realized it thanks to a targeted ad. But ever since then, my identity is tangled up with another real Kyle Britt. You wouldn’t believe how hard that is to fix.
We've seen the polls on the Republican candidate standing in the 2016 US Presidential race. However, who's leading in social media and major news sources? Also, who is most engaged with the public in their race to the presidency?
This presentation is a consolidated view of three published reports to answer questions about party mentions, candidate mentions, and candidate engagement on social media.
This Unclassified Slide Deck provides an overview of the concept of Reflexive Control Doctrine as it is used as a national strategy by the Russian Federation. It describes exactly how and what was done to "influence" the election differentiating the from the notion of actual "collusion." Disinformation, misinformation, fake news as a campaign strategy is vastly different from actually affecting an outcome by active measures such as bribery, blackmail or hacking.
The Democratic Countrywide Committee explained on Wednesday that it experienced barred Fox News from internet hosting or televising a applicant discussion for your bash’s 2020 Most important election, an unusually pointed rebuke of the cable information channel whose star pundits are intently aligned with President Trump.
The Democratic Nationwide Committee mentioned on Wednesday that it experienced barred Fox News from web hosting or televising a candidate debate to the occasion’s 2020 Major election, an unusually pointed rebuke of the cable information channel whose star pundits are closely aligned with President Trump.
The Democratic National Committee claimed on Wednesday that it experienced barred Fox News from internet hosting or televising a candidate discussion for your social gathering’s 2020 Most important election, an unusually pointed rebuke of a cable news channel whose star pundits are carefully aligned with President Trump.
The 2016 US presidential race is on. Frequently we hear the results of political polls, ranking the popularity of candidates. However, both social media and traditional news are useful sources to learn about the candidates, the issues to be addressed, the candidates most discussed, and sentiment around discussions of the candidates. This is a brief report of the results of the analysis of candidate mentions in social media and major news sources over one month. In this Republican Candidate Scorecard, you'll learn:
- What is the ranking of candidates by mentions overall and by media source?
- When did mentions of each candidate peak during the month?
- What is the sentiment around mentions of each candidate?
The 2016 US presidential race is on. Social media and news are dominated by the political candidates and issues to be addressed by both Republicans and Democrats. Which political party is leading the race in the media? This brief report is an analysis of mentions of the Republican party and the Democratic party in social media and major news sources. It's likely no surprise, which party is most mentioned over a one-month period and who is trumping the mentions. This report includes an analysis of the number of mentions, by media source, the trends, the top keywords, the top hashtags on Twitter, and top re-tweets,
What are the opinions of public about trump?OlegGarah
The quantity of Americans who say they hold positive perspectives of President Donald Trump has dropped to its most minimal point since his initiation, as indicated by opinion news. https://eatprayvote.org/
Jacksonville, Florida Sports Talk Radio Station PopularityTaylor Kennedy
This presentation provides the reader with an understanding of the Jacksonville, Florida Sports Radio Landscape in 2019. This presentation shows the reader the top radio stations by survey and Twitter popularity. The presentation also shows you graphics of which radio personalities are most popular between 1010XL / 92.5 FM and ESPN 690.
Certus Insights Special Report: Overview of Polling and Media Coverage on Imp...Natalie Copeland
An in-depth report that reviews the major trends on public attitudes toward the impeachment inquiry, including the latest polling numbers, trends in attitudes since the inquiry announcement, an overview of partisan attitudes, and the impact of impeachment on the President’s approval ratings. The report also details media coverage of the impeachment, examining the amount of coverage, comparisons of the coverage to the Mueller investigation, most shared publications, and most shared news articles.
A Tale of Two Kyles: How Ad Data Exposed My ID TheftKyle J. Britt
In 2010 my identity was stolen. I first realized it thanks to a targeted ad. But ever since then, my identity is tangled up with another real Kyle Britt. You wouldn’t believe how hard that is to fix.
We've seen the polls on the Republican candidate standing in the 2016 US Presidential race. However, who's leading in social media and major news sources? Also, who is most engaged with the public in their race to the presidency?
This presentation is a consolidated view of three published reports to answer questions about party mentions, candidate mentions, and candidate engagement on social media.
This Unclassified Slide Deck provides an overview of the concept of Reflexive Control Doctrine as it is used as a national strategy by the Russian Federation. It describes exactly how and what was done to "influence" the election differentiating the from the notion of actual "collusion." Disinformation, misinformation, fake news as a campaign strategy is vastly different from actually affecting an outcome by active measures such as bribery, blackmail or hacking.
The Democratic Countrywide Committee explained on Wednesday that it experienced barred Fox News from internet hosting or televising a applicant discussion for your bash’s 2020 Most important election, an unusually pointed rebuke of the cable information channel whose star pundits are intently aligned with President Trump.
The Democratic Nationwide Committee mentioned on Wednesday that it experienced barred Fox News from web hosting or televising a candidate debate to the occasion’s 2020 Major election, an unusually pointed rebuke of the cable information channel whose star pundits are closely aligned with President Trump.
The Democratic National Committee claimed on Wednesday that it experienced barred Fox News from internet hosting or televising a candidate discussion for your social gathering’s 2020 Most important election, an unusually pointed rebuke of a cable news channel whose star pundits are carefully aligned with President Trump.
The 2016 US presidential race is on. Frequently we hear the results of political polls, ranking the popularity of candidates. However, both social media and traditional news are useful sources to learn about the candidates, the issues to be addressed, the candidates most discussed, and sentiment around discussions of the candidates. This is a brief report of the results of the analysis of candidate mentions in social media and major news sources over one month. In this Republican Candidate Scorecard, you'll learn:
- What is the ranking of candidates by mentions overall and by media source?
- When did mentions of each candidate peak during the month?
- What is the sentiment around mentions of each candidate?
The 2016 US presidential race is on. Social media and news are dominated by the political candidates and issues to be addressed by both Republicans and Democrats. Which political party is leading the race in the media? This brief report is an analysis of mentions of the Republican party and the Democratic party in social media and major news sources. It's likely no surprise, which party is most mentioned over a one-month period and who is trumping the mentions. This report includes an analysis of the number of mentions, by media source, the trends, the top keywords, the top hashtags on Twitter, and top re-tweets,
Kaelan Wong Professor Gina Gemmel English 161 Dece.docxcroysierkathey
Kaelan Wong
Professor Gina Gemmel
English 161
December 12, 2017
Social Media’s Victory in the 2016 Presidential Election
There has been a lot of talk since the 2016 presidential election because of how unique it
was compared to all the previous ones. Only recently has social media started to play a
significant role in political campaigns, which can clearly be seen with Donald trump’s campaign
in the 2016 election. This paper examines articles written by Michael Barbaro and Christine
Lagorio-Chafkin for the New York Times alongside academic journals written by Gunn Enli and
Frida Ghitis for the European Journal of Communications and the World Politics Review,
respectively. Regarding social media, many tend to focus on its rise in popular culture, the
following of people of people that it tends to bring, and its use by the candidate or its political
party. Although there are people who argue that Trump’s political views and ideologies are what
gave him an advantage, Trump’s social media is what led him to victory.
For one thing, it is clear that social media is generally on the rise in society, today. A
majority of researchers would agree that the rise of social media has been prominent in these past
few years. Michael Barbaro, author of “Pithy, Mean, and Powerful: Donald Trump Mastered
Twitter for 2016,” states how social media is free and can relay information to the public in a
quick way. Barbaro points out how this can be useful, especially as it slowly substitutes for
“costly, conventional” methods. As an example, Barbaro mentions how rival campaigns
acknowledge the advantage Trump has because of his millions of Twitter followers and how he
gets more mentions and retweets compared to other candidates. Gunn Enli, author of “Twitter as
Student 2
Arena for the Authentic Outsider: Exploring the Social Media Campaigns of Trump and Clinton
in the 2016 US Presidential Election,” takes this further, believing that social media can easily
reach the masses and serve as a main source of information. Enli reminds us that new platforms
have emerged while existing ones have expanded. Christin Lagorio-Chafkin, author of “Reddit
and the God Emperor of the Internet,” has a more specific focus on social media, claiming that
Reddit has become one of the most significant websites on the internet. Lagorio-Chafkin
observes how Trump’s subreddit “The_Donald” has gained around 300,000 members (It has
over half a million now as of October 2017). On the other hand, Frida Ghitis, author of “Trump’s
Victory Was Aided by Russia’s Weaponized Social Media Campaign,” takes on a different
focus: WikiLeaks. Arguably a type of social media, WikiLeaks grew to a significant size such
that it could be used to weaponize information. While all four authors believe that social media is
on the rise, Barbaro and Enli focused on Twitter’s rise. On the other hand, Lagorio-Chafkin puts
his focus on Reddit’s ...
In today's political environment, is it possible to have the kinds of conversation that makes democracy meaningful? The Twin Cities Election Forum worked to produce a list of reasons why Twin Cities voters might support each of the major-party presidential candidates and to cultivate understanding across the partisan divide.
Event Analysis on the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Using Social MediaJinho Choi
It is not surprising that social media have played an important role in shaping the political debate during the 2016 presidential election. The dynamics of social media provide a unique opportunity to detect and interpret the pivotal events and scandals of the candidates quantitatively. This paper examines several text-based analysis to determine which topics have a lasting impact on the election for the two main candidates, Clinton and Trump. About 135.5 million tweets are collected over the six weeks prior to the election. From these tweets, topic clustering, keyword extraction, and tweeter analysis are performed to better understand the impact of the events occurred during this period. Our analysis builds upon a social science foundation to provide another avenue for scholars to use in discerning how events detected from social media show the impacts of campaigns as well as campaign the election.
Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton: a Comparison in Social Media BrandingVictor Wu
For my Social Media Marketing Strategy class, Professor Jennifer Osbon tasked us to compare two brands. I decided to take a deeper look into Trump's branding compared to Clinton's branding. The numbers are quite astounding. Trump more than doubled Clinton's amount of free media. Clinton was very effective in several social media channels; however, from a strictly numbers perspective, Trump won by far. I think it will be interesting to keep a eye on how much of an impact social media branding will have on our future elections.
Increasing Voter Knowledge with Pre-Election Interventions on FacebookMIT GOV/LAB
As part of our Data Science to Solve Social Problems series, Facebook Data Scientist Winter Mason presented on efforts to increase online civic engagement.
Republican Candidate Scorecard: Mike HuckabeeTonya Green
The 2016 US presidential race is on. Frequently we hear the results of political polls, ranking the popularity of candidates. However, both social media and traditional news are useful sources to learn about the candidates, the issues to be addressed, the candidates most discussed, and sentiment around discussions of the candidates. This report includes the results of the analysis of candidate mentions in social media and major news sources over one month. The ranking of candidates by mentions overall and by media source are provided on the Republican Candidate Scorecard. This report also includes a detailed analysis of the mentions of Mike Huckabee in social media and major new sources. It answers many questions, including:
- How many mentions of Huckabee were observed and how does he rank among the Republican candidates?
- What is the trend of discussions and when do mentions peak? What topic is discussed at the peak of discussions?
- What other key terms are also mentioned with Huckabee?
- Where do mentions of Huckabee most occur?
- Who are the influencers of discussions of Huckabee, in blogs, traditional news sources and Twitter?
- How engaged is Huckabee on Twitter? How many times did Huckabee tweet and how many tweets were directed to Huckabee?
The Meaning of Selfies: Understanding the use of selfies during the US 2016 P...Henri Ghosn
This report attempts to give a holistic approach to understanding the use of selfies during the US 2016 Primary Elections, taking into account their wider social, cultural, and media contexts. As such this project moves beyond the framing of selfies as a narcissistic practice and highlights instead how they promote “individuality, immediacy, reciprocity, sharing, exchanging, constant updating, work and commitment”.
Group research project completed in the Spring Semester of 2016. Studied undergraduate students at Florida State University in order to gain knowledge on how they used social media platforms to gain information about the presidential election.
Using Tweets for Understanding Public Opinion During U.S. Primaries and Predi...Monica Powell
Abstract
Using social media for political analysis, especially during elections, has become popular in the past few years where many researchers and media now use social media to understand the public opinion and current trends. In this paper, we investigate methods for using Twitter to analyze public opinion and to predict U.S. Presidential Primary Election results. We analyzed over 13 million tweets from February 2016 to April 2016 during the primary elections, and we looked at tweets that mentioned either Hillary Clin- ton, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. First, we use the methods of sentiment analysis, geospatial analysis, net- work analysis, and visualizations tools to examine public opinion on twitter. We then use the twitter data and analysis results to propose a prediction model for predicting primary election results. Our results highlight the feasibility of using social media to look at public opinion and predict election results.
PEP-TF: Social Media Monitoring of the Campaigns for the 2013 German Bundesta...GESIS
As more and more people use social media to communicate their view and perception of elections, researchers have increasingly been collecting and analyzing data from social media platforms. Our research focuses on social media communication related to the 2013 election of the German parlia-ment [translation: Bundestagswahl 2013]. We constructed several social media datasets using data from Facebook and Twitter. First, we identified the most relevant candidates (n=2,346) and checked whether they maintained social media accounts. The Facebook data was collected in November 2013 for the period of January 2009 to October 2013. On Facebook we identified 1,408 Facebook walls containing approximately 469,000 posts. Twitter data was collected between June and December 2013 finishing with the constitution of the government. On Twitter we identified 1,009 candidates and 76 other agents, for example, journalists. We estimated the number of relevant tweets to exceed eight million for the period from July 27 to September 27 alone. In this document we summarize past research in the literature, discuss possibilities for research with our data set, explain the data collection procedures, and provide a description of the data and a discussion of issues for archiving and dissemination of social media data.
Similar to PEORIA Project Report Unclosed Deals (20)
हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
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role of women and girls in various terror groupssadiakorobi2
Women have three distinct types of involvement: direct involvement in terrorist acts; enabling of others to commit such acts; and facilitating the disengagement of others from violent or extremist groups.
In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
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1. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
Unclosed Deals: What PEORIA Twitter Metrics Tell
Us About the Presidential Campaigns During the
Party Consolidation Period
May 4 – July 8, 2016
2. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
Executive Summary
On May 4, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were the presumptive nominees of
their respective parties in terms of delegate counts. But over the next 65 days
how well did they consolidate support among the highly attentive and active
Twitter users who mentioned their names in tweets? Our analysis, performed on
data provided by the media monitoring platforms of Crimson Hexagon and Zignal
Labs, found that:
• Trump's advantage in Twitter impressions roughly paralleled that in newspaper
stories, and both those were greater than in television news and publications
indexed by Lexis/Nexis.
• Trump's follower growth rate slowed but Clinton's did not increase.
2
3. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
Executive Summary (cont’d)
• Clinton had the most retweeted tweet of the campaign, the Twitter-savvy
message "Delete your account," but Trump's response was also popular.
• The disengaged but still expanding followers of defeated candidates represents
an outreach opportunity for the presumptive nominees. Neither Clinton nor
Trump seem to be doing well at staking claim to these pools of politically
attentive and active citizens.
• The sharp decline of #NeverTrump stands as a warning to those who would
interpret a popular hashtag as a sign of growing support. Bear this in mind as
the conventions start.
3
4. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
Table of Contents
• Introduction: Party Consolidation
• Clinton vs. Trump on Twitter
1. Trump led in traditional media and Twitter volume.
2. Trump’s Twitter follower growth slowed to a pace even with Clinton’s.
3. Trump had higher Twitter engagement but Clinton had the tweet of
the campaign.
4. The candidates differ in user topic interests.
5. Clinton retained her lead in national polling.
4
5. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
Table of Contents (cont’d)
• Suspended Campaigns
1. Sanders’ exit provides an opportunity for Clinton to consolidate
support in key demographics
2. Suspended campaigns continue to grow in followers while
engagement goes dormant
3. The #NeverTrump hashtag demonstrates the limits of these
campaign moments
5
6. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
Party Consolidation
6
• The time between one person becoming the presumptive nominee of
the party thanks to a majority or uncatchable lead in delegates and
the actual nomination at the party convention is a time when the
candidate works to acquire support from the also-ran
candidates. Deals are made, endorsements are won, contrasts with
the other party's presumptive nominee sharpen.
• By examining word frequency patterns and engagement metrics on
Twitter, we can gain new kinds of insight as to how well the all-but-
certain presidential nominees are doing at this consolidation
process. That is the subject of this seventh PEORIA Project report.
7. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
7
Share of Media Volume
May 4 – July 8, 2016
57%
43%
54%
46%
58%
42%
56%
44%
Trump
Clinton
Newspaper TV News Lexis/Nexis Twitter Impressions• A candidate’s share is
calculated as a percentage of
the sum of the two-candidate
volume for each media.
• Share of traditional media
volume is from Zignal Labs,
defined as the number of
news stories.
• Crimson Hexagon calculates
Twitter potential impressions
by adding the sender’s
followers and the followers of
all users who have retweeted
a post.
8. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
8
• Since locking up their
nominations, Clinton and
Trump have continued to
grow their followers on
Twitter.
• While Trump caught up and
surpassed Clinton before
the Indiana primary, his
growth in Twitter followers
has slowed to the same
pace as hers.
Similar Growth
Twitter Followers: May 4 – July 8, 2016
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
5/4/16 5/11/16 5/18/16 5/25/16 6/1/16 6/8/16 6/15/16 6/22/16 6/29/16 7/6/16
Clinton Trump
9. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
9
Engagement Peaks
Twitter Engagement: May 4 – July 8, 2016
• Total engagement on Twitter
is the sum of a candidate’s
account’s replies, mentions,
and retweets.
• Trump has led on Twitter
engagement throughout most
of the 2016 election cycle, and
during this party
consolidation period.
• Hillary Clinton’s top Twitter
engagement moment when
her team tweeted “Delete
Your Account” at Trump on
June 9.
• Trump’s top Twitter
engagement moment was
when he tweeted about the
Orlando massacre on June
12.
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
5/4/16 5/11/16 5/18/16 5/25/16 6/1/16 6/8/16 6/15/16 6/22/16 6/29/16 7/6/16
Clinton Trump
10. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
10
• Retweets are exact copies of
what a candidate’s account
posted, which we view as a
measure of engagement or
enthusiasm. Trump has had
more retweets than Clinton
consistently throughout the
party consolidation period.
• Clinton’s “Delete your account”
directed at Trump, which was
retweeted 413,667 times on June
6. This is a perfect match of
angst about Trump and using a
common Twitter insult.
• Trump’s response, “How long
did it take your staff of 823
people to think that up--and
where are your 33,000 emails
that you deleted?” was
retweeted 200,266 times.
The Big Echo
Number of Retweets: May 4 – July 8, 2016
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
5/4/16 5/11/16 5/18/16 5/25/16 6/1/16 6/8/16 6/15/16 6/22/16 6/29/16 7/6/16
Clinton Trump
11. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
11
• Based on Twitter posts with identifiable interests by Crimson
Hexagon
• Figures refer to the number of times the user is more interested in
the topic Twitter as a whole
Interest Topics
Twitter Affinities: May 4 – July 8, 2016
Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Donald Trump
Political Campaigns 279x Bill Maher 360x Political Campaigns 232x
Bill Maher 243x Political Campaigns 235x Glenn Beck 126x
MSNBC 113x The Daily Show 120x MSNBC 86x
Gun Safety 75x Gun Safety 105x Fox News 67x
Glenn Beck 74x Chelsea Handler 86x Veterans 51x
Democratic Party 16x Democratic Party 18x Republican Party 32x
12. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
12
• Word clouds are based on posts with identifiable interests by Crimson Hexagon; scale shows how much
more the user more interested in the topic than Twitter as a whole.
• The word clouds dramatize the data in the previous slide’s table. They show that those tweeting about
Trump and Clinton are extremely interested in political campaigns relative to the entire Twitter population.
• Clinton posts are more focused on gun safety while Trump’s were on veterans (party is the smallest)
Interest Topics (cont’d)
Twitter Affinities: May 4 – July 8, 2016
Clinton Trump
13. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
13
• This slide shows there
was no direct
correlation between
the Twitter activity we
analyze and poll
standings.
• During this party
consolidation period
Clinton has led Trump
for all but three days
(May 22-24).
• Despite Bernie
Sanders’ late exit from
the campaign on July
12, Clinton has unified
her party better than
Trump before the
conventions.
Clinton Led Nationally
National Polling: May 4 – July 8, 2016
14. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
14
Demographic Consolidation
Identifiable Tweets: May 4 – July 8, 2016
• Posts to Sanders were identified as gender-equal and younger than posts to
Clinton or Trump. This is an opportunity for Clinton as she consolidates her
party with Sanders’ exit. Posts to Trump were more likely to be white than posts
to Sanders or Clinton.
• Please note that these data do not indicate whether the tweets were positive,
negative, or neutral. We do not perform sentiment analysis in this study.
46%
50%
42%
54%
50%
58%
C
l…
S
a…
T
r…
Gender
~56% of tweets were identifiable
Trump and Clinton 5m posts
each
Sanders 2m posts
Female Male
12%
15%
14%
80%
76%
79%
C
l…
S
a…
T
r…
Age
~15% of tweets were identifiable
Trump and Clinton 1m posts
each
Sanders 692k posts
18-34 35+
33%
34%
29%
67%
66%
71%
C
l…
S
a…
T
r…
Race/Ethnicity
~12% of tweets were identifiable
Trump 306k Clinton 151k posts
Sanders 259k posts
Non-White White
15. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
15
Dormant But Still Growing
Suspensions, Followers, and Engagement:
Candidate Announcements – July 8, 2016
• We think Clinton and Trump entice politically active tweeters who follow former
candidates to join theirs; the relatively parallel and gradual growth rates of
Trump and Clinton suggest this is not occurring to one side’s advantage over
the other. We also recognize that some of the growth are bots and/or
marketing/promotional accounts trying to get in front of others who follow those
candidates.
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Total Engagement on Twitter - Suspended Republican Campaigns
Candidate Announcements - July 8, 2016
Cruz Rubio Carson Bush Kasich
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
Twitter Follower Growth - Suspended Repubican Camapigns
Candidate Announcements - July 8, 2016
Cruz Rubio Carson Bush Kasich
16. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
16
• The late effort to stop Donald Trump
failed to coalesce around an alternative
candidate or a strategy to deny him the
nomination at the convention.
• Reaction to Trump’s victory in the
South Carolina primary and the
Michigan debate helped fuel a
#NeverTrump hashtag which was
included in well over 315k U.S. posts.
• The #NeverTrump hashtag had one
more moment with 94,805 U.S. posts on
the day of the Indiana primary, which
effectively ended the race for the
Republican nomination. While there was
talk of a Renegade Party to oppose
Trump, David French decided to pass.
• The upcoming conventions will likely
feature hashtags. We caution against
reading too much into them as they
reflect a short-lived moment in time
rather than long-term shifts in the
campaign.
Hashtags Don’t Indicate
Campaign Growth
January 1 – July 8, 2016
17. Graduate School of Political Management
The PEORIA Project
Early July 2016 Update
Contact
Michael D. Cohen, Ph.D., PEORIA Project Chief Data Scientist
michaeldcohen@gwu.edu | 202.579.9094 | @MichaelCohen
Michael B. Cornfield, Ph.D., PEORIA Project Director
corn@gwu.edu | 202.994.9598 | @MBCornfield
Lara M. Brown, Ph.D., Graduate School of Political Management Interim Director
larambrown@gwu.edu | 202.994.4545 | @LaraMBrown
@CrimsonHexagon @ZignalLabs
617.547.1072 202.798.1673
17
Editor's Notes
Update through July 8
Data from Zignal -> Reports -> My Report -> Media Breakdown (for each candidate)
Update these charts
Used the raw data to come up with two-candidate share.
Update through July 8
Data from Crimson Hexagon Account Monitors -> Followers - > Export to Excel
Update trends in Twitter Engagement.xlsx and put the chart here
7/13 - Basically, the trends we saw through May 3 have continued.
Clinton – 7,304,981
Sanders – 2,742,122
Update through July 8
Data from Crimson Hexagon Account Monitors -> Followers - > Export to Excel
Update trends in Twitter Engagement.xlsx and put the chart here
Update through July 8
Data from Crimson Hexagon Account Monitors -> Total Engagement- > Export to Excel (Includes retweets)
Update trends in Twitter Engagement.xlsx and put the charts here
Update through July 8
Data from Crimson Hexagon Account Monitors -> People -> Affinities > Export to Excel (for each candidate)
Update these charts
Update through July 8
Data from Crimson Hexagon Account Monitors -> People -> Affinities > Export to Excel (for each candidate)
Update these charts
Word clouds from https://www.jasondavies.com/wordcloud/
Unclaimed assets
Pull the chart through July 8
Data from RealClearPolitics: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Update charts through July 8
Data from Crimson Hexagon Account Monitors -> People -> Demographics- > Export to Excel (for each candidate)
Clinton – 5m posts have identifiable gender (57%), 1m posts (16%) have identifiable age, 306k posts (3%) have identifiable identity
Sanders– 2m posts have identifiable gender (55%), 692k posts (16%) have identifiable age, 259k posts (6%) have identifiable identity
Trump – 5m posts have identifiable gender (57%), 1m posts (14%) have identifiable age, 151k posts (2%) have identifiable identity
Update through July 8
Data from Crimson Hexagon Account Monitors -> Followers - > Export to Excel
Update trends in Twitter Engagement.xlsx and put the chart here
Update through July 8
Data from Crimson Hexagon Buzz Monitor #NeverTrump -> Volume- > Export Image Normal
Copy/paste chart here
Hashtag popularity doesn’t translate to campaign support.