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THE TALK ABOUT TRUMP
(AND OTHER HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SECOND WAVE OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE
ANNOUNCEMENTS)
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR...
Using Zignal Labs’ platform, GSPM tracks
the mainstream and social media echoes of
the and
their .
PART ONE
The Talk About Trump
Candidates
(Descending order)
Total Mentions
May 16 – July 19
All Announced Candidates
(share of voice, in %)
Announced Re...
TRUMP’S SEVEN TOWERS
Candidates Announcement Date
Rick Santorum May 27
George Pataki May 28
Martin O’Malley May 30
Lindsey...
TRUMP MUFFLES
ANNOUNCEMENT ECHOES
Candidates
(In announcement order)
Announcement Echo Dates Total Mentions During
Echo
Sh...
ESPECIALLY BUSH
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Rick Santorum George Pataki Martin O'Malley Lindsey Graham Lincoln Chafee...
WHO IS TALKING ABOUT
WHOM?
Candidates
(In announcement
order)
Mainstream
Media
May 16-
July 19
Social
Media
May 16-
July 1...
TRUMP ON TOP?
ECHO CONVERSION RATE
Candidates
(In announcement order)
Total Mentions (May
16 – July 19)
Chatter Volume (# ...
BT/AT
(BEFORE & AFTER TRUMP)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Total Mentions
Mentions Per Day
Trump Pumped Up t...
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
TotalNumberofMentionsinThousands
Total Mentions and Share o...
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Rick
Santorum
George
Pataki
Martin
O'Malley
Lindsey
Graham
Lincoln
Chafee
Rick Perry Jeb Bu...
BT/AT
(BEFORE & AFTER TRUMP)
All
Candidates
& Campaign
Money
Mentions for
Dates
Total
Mentions
Mentions
per Day
Before Tru...
BEFORE TRUMP
CAMPAIGN TWEET
Candidates
(In announcement
order, second wave)
Most Shared Campaign Tweet During Pre-Trump Pe...
BEFORE TRUMP
CAMPAIGN TWEET, CONT.
Candidates
(In announcement
order, first wave)
Most Shared Campaign Tweet During Pre-Tr...
AFTER TRUMP
CAMPAIGN TWEET
Candidates
(In announcement
order), second wave
Most Shared Campaign Tweet During Post-Trump Pe...
AFTER TRUMP
CAMPAIGN TWEET, CONT.
Candidates
(In announcement
order, first wave)
Most Shared Campaign Tweet During Post-Tr...
IS TRUMP LEADING?
Candidates
(rank order)
SOV
(%)
Donald Trump 41.5
Ted Cruz 11.4
Jeb Bush 10.9
Scott Walker 6.6
Marco Rub...
Candidates
(rank order)
RTs
(%)
George Pataki 2.00
Ben Carson 1.65
Carly Fiorina 0.72
Bobby Jindal 0.71
Rand Paul 0.59
Ric...
IS TRUMP LEADING?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
TotalNumberofTwitterMentions
Millions
Axis Title
Twitter Mentions by Period
March 15-Jul...
GSPM ECHO RATING
MARCH 15 – JULY 19, 2015
Candidates
(In announcement order)
GSPM Echo Rating
(for each candidate’s
announ...
QUESTIONS?
Graduate School of Political Management @GSPMGWU
Michael Cornfield Lara Brown
Associate Professor Associate Pro...
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Peoria report 2 talk about trump

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"The Talk About Trump" covers the ways in which boisterous businessman Donald Trump has impacted the presidential race in traditional and social media. Not only has he turned up the volume; he's also managed to change the topic of conversation.

Published in: Social Media, News & Politics
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Peoria report 2 talk about trump

  1. 1. THE TALK ABOUT TRUMP (AND OTHER HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SECOND WAVE OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE ANNOUNCEMENTS) ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR MICHAEL CORNFIELD & ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR LARA BROWN RELEASE DATE: AUGUST 4, 2015
  2. 2. Using Zignal Labs’ platform, GSPM tracks the mainstream and social media echoes of the and their .
  3. 3. PART ONE The Talk About Trump
  4. 4. Candidates (Descending order) Total Mentions May 16 – July 19 All Announced Candidates (share of voice, in %) Announced Republicans Only (share of voice, in %) Donald Trump 7,104,502 32.5 46.6 Hillary Clinton 3,855,984 17.7 -- Bernie Sanders 2,482,282 10.9 -- Jeb Bush 1,633,109 7.5 10.7 Ted Cruz 1,271,561 5.8 8.3 Scott Walker 983,691 4.5 6.5 Rand Paul 669,452 3.1 4.4 Marco Rubio 655,452 3.0 4.3 Chris Christie 617,839 2.8 4.1 Rick Perry 549,047 2.5 3.6 Mike Huckabee 426,690 2.0 2.8 Lindsey Graham 340,765 1.6 2.2 Bobby Jindal 312,055 1.4 2.0 Rick Santorum 259,042 1.2 1.7 Ben Carson 256,121 1.2 1.7 Martin O’Malley 189,386 0.9 -- Carly Fiorina 102,289 0.5 0.7 Jim Webb 90,369 0.4 -- Lincoln Chafee 71,293 0.3 -- George Pataki 70,320 0.3 0.5 TRUMP DOMINATES Note: Governor John Kasich had not yet announced his candidacy. He is excluded from the above analysis
  5. 5. TRUMP’S SEVEN TOWERS Candidates Announcement Date Rick Santorum May 27 George Pataki May 28 Martin O’Malley May 30 Lindsey Graham June 1 Lincoln Chafee June 3 Rick Perry June 4 Jeb Bush June 15 Donald Trump June 16 Bobby Jindal June 24 Chris Christie June 30 Jim Webb July 2 Scott Walker July 13 Trump Towers (Seven Spikes in Trump Talk) Spike Date Announcement Date June 16 Univision Cancels Miss USA Broadcast June 25 NBC Severs Ties June 29 Macy’s Severs Ties July 1 Trump Rally in Phoenix July 11 Trump Comments on “El Chapo” July 13 Trump Comments on Sen. McCain July 18
  6. 6. TRUMP MUFFLES ANNOUNCEMENT ECHOES Candidates (In announcement order) Announcement Echo Dates Total Mentions During Echo Share of Voice During Echo (in %) Rick Santorum May 27 - May 29 39,104 25 George Pataki May 28 – May 29 19,627 17 Martin O’Malley May 30 – May 31 50,594 48 Lindsey Graham June 1 – June 2 52,466 43 Lincoln Chafee June 3 – June 4 28,190 11 Rick Perry June 4 – June 6 154,449 52 Jeb Bush June 15 – June 20 404,550 20 Donald Trump June 16 – June 22 1,517,570 76 Bobby Jindal June 24 – June 28 146,969 15 Chris Christie June 30 – July 3 173,405 12 Jim Webb July 2 – July 3 30,524 5 Scott Walker July 13 – July 18 337,199 17
  7. 7. ESPECIALLY BUSH 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Rick Santorum George Pataki Martin O'Malley Lindsey Graham Lincoln Chafee Rick Perry Jeb Bush Donald Trump Bobby Jindal Chris Christie Jim Webb Scott Walker Share of Voice 3 Days Before Announcement Day 3 Days After
  8. 8. WHO IS TALKING ABOUT WHOM? Candidates (In announcement order) Mainstream Media May 16- July 19 Social Media May 16- July 19 Rick Santorum 4 2 George Pataki 2 <1 Martin O’Malley 4 1 Lindsey Graham 6 2 Lincoln Chafee 2 <1 Rick Perry 6 4 Jeb Bush 25 12 Donald Trump 26 61 Bobby Jindal 3 3 Chris Christie 8 5 Jim Webb 1 1 Scott Walker 12 8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Rick Santorum George Pataki Martin O'Malley Lindsey Graham Lincoln Chafee Rick Perry Jeb Bush Donald Trump Bobby Jindal Chris Christie Jim Webb Scott Walker Mainstream Media vs. Social Media Share of Voice (%) Mainstream Media Social Media
  9. 9. TRUMP ON TOP? ECHO CONVERSION RATE Candidates (In announcement order) Total Mentions (May 16 – July 19) Chatter Volume (# of mentions above/below mean # of mentions, May 16 – July 19) Total Website Shares in 63 days (May 16 – July 19) 63-day Echo Conversion Rate (Total Website Shares/Total Mentions, in %) Rick Santorum 259,042 -759,409 6,017 2.3 George Pataki 70,320 -948,131 523 0.7 Martin O’Malley 189,386 -829,065 3,705 2.0 Lindsey Graham 340,765 -677,686 n/a n/a Lincoln Chafee 71,293 -947,158 153 0.2 Rick Perry 549,047 -469,404 7,336 1.3 Jeb Bush 1,633,109 614,658 5,706 0.3 Donald Trump 7,104,502 6,086,051 14,648 0.2 Bobby Jindal 312,055 -706,396 7,066 2.3 Chris Christie 617,839 -400,612 n/a n/a Jim Webb 90,369 -928,180 456 0.5 Scott Walker 983,691 -162,315 6,763 0.7
  10. 10. BT/AT (BEFORE & AFTER TRUMP) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total Mentions Mentions Per Day Trump Pumped Up the Volume Before Trump (3/15-6/15) After Trump (6/16-7/19) All Candidates for Dates Total Mentions Mentions per Day Before Trump (3/15-6/15) 19,124,790 ~ 212K After Trump (6/16-7/19) 15,600,595 ~ 473K
  11. 11. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 TotalNumberofMentionsinThousands Total Mentions and Share of Voice Before Trump (3/15-6/15) and After Trump (6/16-7/19) BT - Total Mentions BT - Share of Voice (%) AT - Total Mentions AT - Share of Voice (%) BT/AT (BEFORE & AFTER TRUMP) First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates
  12. 12. -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Rick Santorum George Pataki Martin O'Malley Lindsey Graham Lincoln Chafee Rick Perry Jeb Bush Donald Trump Bobby Jindal Chris Christie Jim Webb Scott Walker Ted Cruz Rand Paul Hillary Clinton Marco Rubio Bernie Sanders Ben Carson Carly Fiorina Mike Huckabee PositiveShare-NegativeShare(%) Net Sentiment Before Trump (3/15-6/15) and After Trump (6/16-7/19) Before Trump After Trump BT/AT (BEFORE & AFTER TRUMP) Trump “Mud- Slingers” Trump “Clean Hands” Lindsey Graham, Rick Perry, Jeb Bush, Bobby Jindal, and Donald Trump Ted Cruz and Rand Paul First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates
  13. 13. BT/AT (BEFORE & AFTER TRUMP) All Candidates & Campaign Money Mentions for Dates Total Mentions Mentions per Day Before Trump (3/15-6/15) 675,624 7,506 After Trump (6/16-7/19) 377,026 11,425 All Candidates & Immigration Mentions for Dates Total Mentions Mentions per Day Before Trump (3/15-6/15) 18,458,071 205,089 After Trump (6/16-7/19) 14,620,501 443,045 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total Mentions Mentions Per Day Candidates & Immigration Before Trump (3/15-6/15) After Trump (6/16-7/19) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total Mentions Mentions Per Day Candidates & Campaign Money Before Trump (3/15-6/15) After Trump (6/16-7/19)
  14. 14. BEFORE TRUMP CAMPAIGN TWEET Candidates (In announcement order, second wave) Most Shared Campaign Tweet During Pre-Trump Period (March 15-June 15) Tweet Shares Rick Santorum Today I announce my candidacy for President of the United States! Join me at http://t.co/zj89cNMaUY and let's take back America! 291 George Pataki If someone chooses a path that's different than mine, we should respect it as opposed to mocking...@Caitlyn_Jenner http://t.co/qNwmOMAVVU 79 Martin O’Malley Good to hear from you after all these years, @SarahPalinUSA. There's still room in GOP primary for another entrant! https://t.co/AhjD8DNbOn 652 Lindsey Graham n/a n/a Lincoln Chafee Today I am formally entering the race for the Democratic nomination for President #Chafee2016 117 Rick Perry Let us be worthy of their sacrifice. https://t.co/fVBUxSM5s4 #DDay71 http://t.co/aWXVhjSW59 399 Jeb Bush I'm running for President of the United States. I will run with heart. I will run to win. http://t.co/Z3wh8ECPUl 1,378 Donald Trump .@FloydMayweather Good luck tonight Floyd. 891 Bobby Jindal As long as I’m Governor, we will fight to protect religious liberty and not apologize for it. 251 Chris Christie What. You thought I would let everyone else have all the fun? This is called #OwningIt https://t.co/0f1PxS6IFJ (h/t @IJReview) 284 Jim Webb Political pundits ask "can you raise a billion dollars?" Other people ask, "can you lead?" http://t.co/RtPImheLLZ #LeadershipYouCanTrust 62 Scott Walker Did you know, Americans will spend more on taxes in 2015 than on food, clothing and housing combined? - TW http://t.co/wi1fmpYRfS 716
  15. 15. BEFORE TRUMP CAMPAIGN TWEET, CONT. Candidates (In announcement order, first wave) Most Shared Campaign Tweet During Pre-Trump Period (March 15-June 15) Tweet Shares Ted Cruz I'm running for President and I hope to earn your support! http://t.co/0UTqaIoytP 13,124 Rand Paul How many retweets can we get? http://t.co/lpzLQCfz0F http://t.co/eo6LzfAoh8 2,537 Hillary Clinton I'm running for president. Everyday Americans need a champion, and I want to be that champion. –H https://t.co/w8Hoe1pbtC 95,557 Marco Rubio ... I announce my candidacy for President of the United States of America. 2,632 Bernie Sanders Every candidate for president must answer the following questions: http://t.co/7tZnpR3MKg 2,640 Ben Carson I'm in it! 3,286 Carly Fiorina Thanks, @chucktodd, for having me on @meetthepress this morning. Btw, check out http://t.co/m9C6LxE89J . #domaingate 464 Mike Huckabee Islamic Jihad = a rattlesnake. Watch "Rattlesnake" then retweet if you agree http://t.co/3hVWYjm7Sp http://t.co/ZAB1QEwYva 861
  16. 16. AFTER TRUMP CAMPAIGN TWEET Candidates (In announcement order), second wave Most Shared Campaign Tweet During Post-Trump Period (June 16-July 19) Tweet Shares Rick Santorum RT if you believe marriage is the union of one man and one woman. https://t.co/7mf9mLaZ78 #Rick2016 530 George Pataki It should be painfully obvious that a government that endorses the credo "Death to America" is a danger to our safety & security. #IranDeal 139 Martin O’Malley I’m pissed. We're asking what it will take to stop this violence? We must stop asking: we must act now, as a nation. #CharlestonShooting 312 Lindsey Graham At the heart of @realDonaldTrump statement is a lack of respect for those who have served - a disqualifying characteristic to be president 408 Lincoln Chafee Congratulations to Supreme Court on today's good ruling for marriage equality! #chafee2016 94 Rick Perry Happy 4th of July! http://t.co/Uv5HAD7ROm 1,865 Jeb Bush Enough with the slanderous attacks. @SenJohnMcCain and all our veterans - particularly POWs have earned our respect and admiration. 1,352 Donald Trump I am officially running for President of the United States. #MakeAmericaGreatAgain https://t.co/Ct0lNu7kz0 10,980 Bobby Jindal After Donald Trump spends six years in a POW camp, he can weigh in on John McCain's service 1,522 Chris Christie A hat trick by New Jersey's own Carli Lloyd! What an amazing leader she has been for Team USA. Go USA! Go Scarlet Knights! #jerseypride 422 Jim Webb JIM WEBB ANNOUNCES CANDIDACY FOR PRESIDENT http://t.co/H2iXNN9kdB -Staff http://t.co/zdi7vM5YvQ 410 Scott Walker We should defund Planned Parenthood across the country. RT if you stand with me. -SW #Walker16 1,801
  17. 17. AFTER TRUMP CAMPAIGN TWEET, CONT. Candidates (In announcement order, first wave) Most Shared Campaign Tweet During Post-Trump Period (June 16-July 19) Tweet Shares Ted Cruz RETWEET if you agree that sanctuary cities are wrong! https://t.co/YYB1zkXePi 1,389 Rand Paul My plan is the largest tax cut in history, returning nearly $2 trillion to American families in the first 10 years. https://t.co/A4qea61pn0 1,755 Hillary Clinton The boys are right. We need everyone's help to get the planet moving in the right direction. http://t.co/rNQSBSmgJ8 #action1D 57,879 Marco Rubio America’s POWs deserve much better than to have their service questioned by the offensive rantings of Donald Trump 1,058 Bernie Sanders The Charleston church killings are a tragic reminder of the ugly stain of racism that still taints our nation. http://t.co/3R4zKLqq2q 6,136 Ben Carson I'm urging #Congress to eliminate every last dime of #PlannedParenthood funding! Join me, sign the petition here: https://t.co/alZGjf8BE2 2,338 Carly Fiorina Here's my full statement on today's tragic and outrageous Planned Parenthood news. https://t.co/cs8zUmUNNa 403 Mike Huckabee The Supreme Court can no more repeal the laws of nature and nature's God on marriage than it can the laws of gravity. 832
  18. 18. IS TRUMP LEADING? Candidates (rank order) SOV (%) Donald Trump 41.5 Ted Cruz 11.4 Jeb Bush 10.9 Scott Walker 6.6 Marco Rubio 5.6 Rand Paul 5.3 Chris Christie 4.6 Rick Perry 3.1 Mike Huckabee 2.8 Ben Carson 2.2 Bobby Jindal 1.8 Lindsey Graham 1.8 Rick Santorum 1.3 Carly Fiorina 0.7 George Pataki 0.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 PercentofTotalWeightedMentions Share of Voice Republican Candidates March 15 - July 19, 2015 First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates
  19. 19. Candidates (rank order) RTs (%) George Pataki 2.00 Ben Carson 1.65 Carly Fiorina 0.72 Bobby Jindal 0.71 Rand Paul 0.59 Rick Santorum 0.56 Rick Perry 0.53 Mike Huckabee 0.37 Ted Cruz 0.35 Scott Walker 0.27 Marco Rubio 0.26 Lindsey Graham 0.22 Jeb Bush 0.18 Donald Trump 0.17 Chris Christie 0.11 IS TRUMP LEADING? 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 PercentofTotalWeightedRTsperTotalWeightedTwitterMentions Retweets of Top Campaign's Tweet March 15 - July 19 First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates
  20. 20. IS TRUMP LEADING? 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 TotalNumberofTwitterMentions Millions Axis Title Twitter Mentions by Period March 15-July 19 T1: Twitter Mentions T2: Twitter Mentions T3: Twitter Mentions T4: Twitter Mentions 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 TotalNumberofRetweetsofTopCampaignTweets Hundreds Retweets of Top Campaign Tweet by Period March 15-July 19 T1: RTs T2: RTs T3: RTs T4: RTs First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates First Wave PEORIA Report Candidates
  21. 21. GSPM ECHO RATING MARCH 15 – JULY 19, 2015 Candidates (In announcement order) GSPM Echo Rating (for each candidate’s announcement and for the 123-day period) Candidates (In announcement order) GSPM Echo Rating (for each candidate’s announcement and for the 123-day period) Ted Cruz 9 Martin O’Malley 1 Rand Paul 5 Lindsey Graham 1 Hillary Clinton 9 Lincoln Chafee 1 Marco Rubio 4 Rick Perry 2 Bernie Sanders 8 Jeb Bush 6 Ben Carson 3 Donald Trump 7 Carly Fiorina 1 Bobby Jindal 2 Mike Huckabee 2 Chris Christie 3 Rick Santorum 3 Jim Webb 1 George Pataki 1 Scott Walker 5
  22. 22. QUESTIONS? Graduate School of Political Management @GSPMGWU Michael Cornfield Lara Brown Associate Professor Associate Professor corn@gwu.edu larambrown@gwu.edu John Brandt Media Relations johnbrandt@gwu.edu Zignal Labs @ZignalLabs Pete Eskew D.J. Waldow Director of East Coast Ops. Director of Marketing peskew@zignallabs.com djwaldow@zignallabs.com

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