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Five Steps for 
Analytical Insight 
Paul Askew 
CONFERENCE 
SEPTEMBER 2014 
SHEFFIELD
Five Steps for Analytical Insight - Contents 
A. Context 
B. Five Steps 
C. Key Message
The only statistics you can trust 
are those you falsified yourself. 
Winston Churchill 
Statistical thinking will one day be as 
necessary for efficient citizenship as 
the ability to read and write. 
HG Wells 
You cannot ask us to take sides 
against arithmetic. 
Winston Churchill 
The War Office kept three sets of 
figures: one to mislead the public, 
another to mislead the Cabinet, and a 
third to mislead itself. 
Herbert Asquith 
It is by the art of Statistics that law in the 
social sphere can be ascertained and 
codified, and certain aspects of the 
character of God thereby revealed. The 
study of statistics is thus a religious service. 
Florence Nightingale 
Smoking is one of the 
leading causes of statistics. 
Fletcher Knebel 
If you want to inspire confidence, give 
plenty of statistics. It does not matter that 
they should be accurate, or even 
intelligible, as long as there is enough of 
them. Lewis Carroll 
A small error at the outset can lead to 
great errors in the final conclusions. 
Saint Thomas Aquinas 
Facts are stubborn, but 
statistics are more pliable. 
Mark Twain 
Errors using inadequate data are much 
less than those using no data at all. 
Charles Babbage
Skills for Life Survey 2011 (England) 
Department for Business Innovation and Skills 
% Adults at GCSE+ Levels 
The numeracy challenge is big and getting bigger… 
7.5m 
adults with 
GCSE+ 
17m 
adults at 
primary school 
level Maths
A Framework for Understanding 
Statistical Performance 
Paul Askew
Policy Gap 
Aging Population 2x [36%, actually 16% 65+] 
Immigration 2x [31%, actually 13% 
immigrant] 
Religion 5x [24%, 
actually 5% muslim] 
Teenage Pregnancy 25x [15%, actually 0.6% under 15 girls 
annually] 
Benefit Fraud 34x [£24/£100, actually 70p/£100] 
RSS & Ipsos Mori
Confirmation Bias Clustering Illusion 
Hindsight Bias 
Overconfidence 
Effect 
Incentive Super 
Response Tendency 
Illusion of Control 
Endowment Effect 
Scarcity Error 
Loss Aversion 
Cognitive 
Dissonance 
Hyperbolic discounting 
The Art of Thinking 
Clearly, Dobelli 
Conjunction 
Fallacy 
Forecast 
Illusion 
Fundamental 
Attribution Error 
Contrast Effect 
Availability Bias 
Outcome Bias
Operational 
Delivery 
Methodological 
Leadership
✗ Yes but it’s up 
compared the same 
month last year 
✗ Yes but its up for the 
calendar year so far 
✗ Yes but they are 
reducing faster than we 
are this year 
Performance Pantomime 
✓ Burglary is down compared 
to last month 
✓ Yes but it’s down overall for the 
financial year to date 
✓ Yes but we’re still 
better than our 
neighbours 
✓ “Yes but we’re still on target”
Five Steps for Analytical Insight - Contents 
A. Context 
B. Five Steps 
C. Key Message
B. Five Steps 
1. Snapshot 
2. Trend 
3. Benchmark 
4. Trajectory 
5. Target
1. Snapshot 
5. 
Define 
6. 
Specify 
8. 
Record 
7. 
Collect 
9. 
Enter 
10. 
Process 
12. 
Store 
11. 
Validate 
Plan 
Implement 
Manage 
1. 
Purpose 
2. 
Require-ments 
4. 
Design 
3. 
Const-raints
Aggregated Data 
or Real Data 
Aggregated Data 
This aggregated (averaged) 
data is derived from any of 
these underlying raw data 
examples. 
Two month step Three month step Six month step 
Increasing Decreasing Increasing convergence 
High and low Highs and lows 
Decreasing convergence 
Smoothed Data – 12 month rolling average 
Example Real Data 
Notes: Real data for 12 months, previous 12 months is exactly the same, to create 12 month rolling average (mean).
2. Five Steps 
1. Snapshot 2. Trend 3. Benchmark 4. Trajectory 5. Target 
Purpose Week National Future Estimate 
Requirements Month Regional Intervention 
Constraints Quarter Neighbours Impact 
Design Six Months Similar 
Define Annual Specific 
Specify FYTD 
Collect 
Record 
Enter 
Process 
Validate 
Storage
Value 
1. Snapshot – we have a number which is important to us 
Time
Value 
Time 
2. Trend – what’s happening over time (s)
Value 
3. Benchmark – how this measure compares to others 
Time
Value 
3. Benchmark-Trend - comparison to others over time 
Time
Value 
Time 
4. Trajectory - the future for our measure
Value 
Time 
4. Trajectory Benchmark - comparison to others
Value 
Time 
5. Target Consideration
Five Steps for Analytical Insight - Contents 
A. Context 
B. Five Steps 
C. Key Message
C. Key Message 
Framework 
Multidimensional 
measures - times - comparisons
C. Key Message 
42
Five Steps for 
Analytical Insight 
Thank you 
CONFERENCE 
SEPTEMBER 2014 
SHEFFIELD

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Paul askew rss 2014

  • 1. Five Steps for Analytical Insight Paul Askew CONFERENCE SEPTEMBER 2014 SHEFFIELD
  • 2. Five Steps for Analytical Insight - Contents A. Context B. Five Steps C. Key Message
  • 3. The only statistics you can trust are those you falsified yourself. Winston Churchill Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write. HG Wells You cannot ask us to take sides against arithmetic. Winston Churchill The War Office kept three sets of figures: one to mislead the public, another to mislead the Cabinet, and a third to mislead itself. Herbert Asquith It is by the art of Statistics that law in the social sphere can be ascertained and codified, and certain aspects of the character of God thereby revealed. The study of statistics is thus a religious service. Florence Nightingale Smoking is one of the leading causes of statistics. Fletcher Knebel If you want to inspire confidence, give plenty of statistics. It does not matter that they should be accurate, or even intelligible, as long as there is enough of them. Lewis Carroll A small error at the outset can lead to great errors in the final conclusions. Saint Thomas Aquinas Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable. Mark Twain Errors using inadequate data are much less than those using no data at all. Charles Babbage
  • 4. Skills for Life Survey 2011 (England) Department for Business Innovation and Skills % Adults at GCSE+ Levels The numeracy challenge is big and getting bigger… 7.5m adults with GCSE+ 17m adults at primary school level Maths
  • 5. A Framework for Understanding Statistical Performance Paul Askew
  • 6. Policy Gap Aging Population 2x [36%, actually 16% 65+] Immigration 2x [31%, actually 13% immigrant] Religion 5x [24%, actually 5% muslim] Teenage Pregnancy 25x [15%, actually 0.6% under 15 girls annually] Benefit Fraud 34x [£24/£100, actually 70p/£100] RSS & Ipsos Mori
  • 7. Confirmation Bias Clustering Illusion Hindsight Bias Overconfidence Effect Incentive Super Response Tendency Illusion of Control Endowment Effect Scarcity Error Loss Aversion Cognitive Dissonance Hyperbolic discounting The Art of Thinking Clearly, Dobelli Conjunction Fallacy Forecast Illusion Fundamental Attribution Error Contrast Effect Availability Bias Outcome Bias
  • 8.
  • 10.
  • 11. ✗ Yes but it’s up compared the same month last year ✗ Yes but its up for the calendar year so far ✗ Yes but they are reducing faster than we are this year Performance Pantomime ✓ Burglary is down compared to last month ✓ Yes but it’s down overall for the financial year to date ✓ Yes but we’re still better than our neighbours ✓ “Yes but we’re still on target”
  • 12. Five Steps for Analytical Insight - Contents A. Context B. Five Steps C. Key Message
  • 13. B. Five Steps 1. Snapshot 2. Trend 3. Benchmark 4. Trajectory 5. Target
  • 14. 1. Snapshot 5. Define 6. Specify 8. Record 7. Collect 9. Enter 10. Process 12. Store 11. Validate Plan Implement Manage 1. Purpose 2. Require-ments 4. Design 3. Const-raints
  • 15. Aggregated Data or Real Data Aggregated Data This aggregated (averaged) data is derived from any of these underlying raw data examples. Two month step Three month step Six month step Increasing Decreasing Increasing convergence High and low Highs and lows Decreasing convergence Smoothed Data – 12 month rolling average Example Real Data Notes: Real data for 12 months, previous 12 months is exactly the same, to create 12 month rolling average (mean).
  • 16. 2. Five Steps 1. Snapshot 2. Trend 3. Benchmark 4. Trajectory 5. Target Purpose Week National Future Estimate Requirements Month Regional Intervention Constraints Quarter Neighbours Impact Design Six Months Similar Define Annual Specific Specify FYTD Collect Record Enter Process Validate Storage
  • 17. Value 1. Snapshot – we have a number which is important to us Time
  • 18. Value Time 2. Trend – what’s happening over time (s)
  • 19. Value 3. Benchmark – how this measure compares to others Time
  • 20. Value 3. Benchmark-Trend - comparison to others over time Time
  • 21. Value Time 4. Trajectory - the future for our measure
  • 22. Value Time 4. Trajectory Benchmark - comparison to others
  • 23. Value Time 5. Target Consideration
  • 24. Five Steps for Analytical Insight - Contents A. Context B. Five Steps C. Key Message
  • 25. C. Key Message Framework Multidimensional measures - times - comparisons
  • 27. Five Steps for Analytical Insight Thank you CONFERENCE SEPTEMBER 2014 SHEFFIELD