This document discusses why statistics are fascinating and useful, even for those without a strong math background. It argues that statistics can reveal the disconnect between people's perceptions and reality. Simplicity is key when presenting statistics, which should use clear language and visuals to communicate insights effectively. These insights from statistics are relevant for managers in India to make better decisions by understanding perceptions versus facts.
Implied volatility represents the volatility that makes the theoretical value of an option equal to its market price. It is typically expressed as an annual percentage that represents how much a stock's price could move up or down in one standard deviation. The document explains how to convert implied annual volatility into expected price movements over different time periods like days or weeks by taking the square root of the fraction of days relative to a year. For example, a stock with 35% annual implied volatility would be expected to move up or down around 2.2% within one day, 4.93% within five days, and 9.86% within 20 days. The document demonstrates how to use these expected movements to assess risk for options positions.
The document summarizes consumer sentiment and spending behaviors based on a survey from Prosper Insights & Analytics. It finds that while consumer confidence declined slightly from its peak in December, it remains high at 50.1% and well above the 13-month average. Sentiment has surged 19% year-over-year. Consumers continue focusing spending on necessities and essential needs rather than wants. Savings and paying down debt also remain financial priorities over the next three months as consumers maintain a cautious approach.
Presentation on " ANALYSIS OF TED TALK BY MONA CHALABI ON 3 WAYS TO SPOT A BAD STATISTIC" made as a task for the internship on "DATA ANALYTICS WITH MANAGERIAL APPLICATIONS" under Professor Sameer Mathur, IIM Lucknow. Submitted by TARANG JAIN,DTU
Greg Mankiw, Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University, delivered the Hutchinson lecture at the University of Delaware's Lerner College of Business and Economics. E on “The Rise in Entitled "Economic Inequality: Causes and Cures.”
The document discusses insights from statistical data that contradict common assumptions. It summarizes a study where participants estimated child mortality rates with only 1.8% accuracy, whereas the actual probability of a correct answer would be around 2.5%. The document advocates that managers make decisions based on analyzing data and facts rather than common sense. It also notes that available data, if properly analyzed, can provide understanding of tremendous changes and lead to better decision-making.
1) The document discusses a survey conducted on imposter syndrome among agile professionals. 205 individuals participated in an anonymous online survey about their experiences with imposter syndrome and use of agile methods.
2) The results found that 72% of respondents experienced imposter syndrome to some degree that interfered with their life. However, no significant relationship was found between experiencing imposter syndrome and an individual's ability to act according to scrum values.
3) The author suggests that support from teams, forward-thinking organizations, good project managers, and emphasis on emotional intelligence may explain why imposter syndrome does not affect adherence to agile values.
This document discusses why statistics are fascinating and useful, even for those without a strong math background. It argues that statistics can reveal the disconnect between people's perceptions and reality. Simplicity is key when presenting statistics, which should use clear language and visuals to communicate insights effectively. These insights from statistics are relevant for managers in India to make better decisions by understanding perceptions versus facts.
Implied volatility represents the volatility that makes the theoretical value of an option equal to its market price. It is typically expressed as an annual percentage that represents how much a stock's price could move up or down in one standard deviation. The document explains how to convert implied annual volatility into expected price movements over different time periods like days or weeks by taking the square root of the fraction of days relative to a year. For example, a stock with 35% annual implied volatility would be expected to move up or down around 2.2% within one day, 4.93% within five days, and 9.86% within 20 days. The document demonstrates how to use these expected movements to assess risk for options positions.
The document summarizes consumer sentiment and spending behaviors based on a survey from Prosper Insights & Analytics. It finds that while consumer confidence declined slightly from its peak in December, it remains high at 50.1% and well above the 13-month average. Sentiment has surged 19% year-over-year. Consumers continue focusing spending on necessities and essential needs rather than wants. Savings and paying down debt also remain financial priorities over the next three months as consumers maintain a cautious approach.
Presentation on " ANALYSIS OF TED TALK BY MONA CHALABI ON 3 WAYS TO SPOT A BAD STATISTIC" made as a task for the internship on "DATA ANALYTICS WITH MANAGERIAL APPLICATIONS" under Professor Sameer Mathur, IIM Lucknow. Submitted by TARANG JAIN,DTU
Greg Mankiw, Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University, delivered the Hutchinson lecture at the University of Delaware's Lerner College of Business and Economics. E on “The Rise in Entitled "Economic Inequality: Causes and Cures.”
The document discusses insights from statistical data that contradict common assumptions. It summarizes a study where participants estimated child mortality rates with only 1.8% accuracy, whereas the actual probability of a correct answer would be around 2.5%. The document advocates that managers make decisions based on analyzing data and facts rather than common sense. It also notes that available data, if properly analyzed, can provide understanding of tremendous changes and lead to better decision-making.
1) The document discusses a survey conducted on imposter syndrome among agile professionals. 205 individuals participated in an anonymous online survey about their experiences with imposter syndrome and use of agile methods.
2) The results found that 72% of respondents experienced imposter syndrome to some degree that interfered with their life. However, no significant relationship was found between experiencing imposter syndrome and an individual's ability to act according to scrum values.
3) The author suggests that support from teams, forward-thinking organizations, good project managers, and emphasis on emotional intelligence may explain why imposter syndrome does not affect adherence to agile values.
The document discusses strategic planning for Cogito Electronics Company. It begins by asking employees for their thoughts on strategic planning and defines key terms. It then lists reasons why strategic planning can fail, such as an unknowable future or narrow thinking. The document contrasts good and bad decision making, noting pitfalls to avoid like failing to consider alternatives. It distinguishes between a company's mission statement, which defines who and what it is, and its strategic plan, which outlines how it will achieve its goals.
The document discusses how to build a great organizational culture. It notes that the nature of work is changing, with more jobs requiring strong social and analytical skills. It explores what behaviors shape culture, such as being ambitious, inspired, and accountable. It suggests that culture can be influenced by focusing on mindsets, feelings and values to change behaviors. Some ways to change the context and influence behaviors are through onboarding processes, strategic hiring, coaching and training, and ensuring a great culture. It advises finding culture champions, piloting initiatives first, and continually measuring and refining efforts to build the desired culture over time.
U.S. hotel performance indicators continued to reach all-time highs in April according to an analysis. RevPAR has now been growing for 62 consecutive months. New York City had the highest occupancy of any U.S. market at 86.9% in April. Supply growth hit a new low of +0.1% for the third straight month while three of the top 10 hottest under construction markets are located in Texas.
1. When studying percentages or averages, consider additional context like sample size, standard deviations, and absolute values to gain a fuller perspective.
2. Events that seem independent can be interconnected, so consider second and third-order effects and unique perspectives from interconnected systems.
3. Progress is not always linear. Don't get discouraged by slow initial stages as building a strong foundation is important. Later stages may also slow down due to overlooked details.
Why is that when we present facts alone, we can get met with resistance? Is there another way to influence? We discuss how storytelling in technical talks, when done right, can make your ideas more memorable and influential.
How Designers Can Make the World a Happier PlaceCentralis
Design is powerful – it can generate excitement, bring joy, provoke anger, or trigger anxiety, sometimes all in the same interaction. From the big decisions about a product’s purpose all the way down to the myriad pixel-level arguments lost and won, designers have a great responsibility to safeguard the happiness of the users we serve. But what do we really know about the nature of happiness? And how can we actually make everyone happy?
In this talk, Kathi Kaiser (Co-Founder & COO, Centralis) deconstructs the concept of “happiness” and offer designers a framework for considering the emotional impact of their work. She explores the meaning, dimensions, and pre-conditions of happiness while examining the wide range of satisfying outcomes and their implications for design. Drawing on recent research in psychology as well as real-world design examples, you’ll learn when and how to evoke joy, humor, reassurance, comfort, and other positive feelings through applying a set of guiding principles for the pursuit of happiness.
- Consumer sentiment surged in December 2016 with 54.5% of Americans confident in the economy, the highest level in over 10 years, as political anxiety eased somewhat.
- While confidence improved, practical purchase intentions and focus on necessities declined from last month, and one in ten plan to increase holiday spending by an average of $103 due to the election outcome.
- Men, higher-income households, and younger consumers under 45 have a more positive post-election holiday spending outlook compared to other groups.
Enlargement refers to changing the size of an object while keeping its shape the same. The object can either increase or decrease in size. The scale factor indicates the amount of enlargement or reduction, with a scale factor less than 1 meaning the image is smaller than the original object, and a scale factor greater than 1 meaning the image is larger. The scale factor represents how many times bigger or smaller the image is compared to the original object.
With less than 3% of young female students identifying a career in technology as their first choice, how are we ever going to achieve a diverse workforce and bridge the gender gap that persists in technology careers? But, don’t panic, this can all still change! Learn how even small events can have a lasting impact in encouraging more females into STEM and technology careers and explore how you can get involved to actively make a difference to the diversity of the tech industry.
The Landscape of Trust Research Partner webinar #1 July 2017 v1Julian Stodd
This is the first of a series of community webinars, sharing initial analysis of the Landscape of Trust research. This will be a regular update around this work.
Greg Nelson presented on best practices for data visualization and storytelling. He began with an introduction that outlined his background and experience in analytics, data science, and data visualization. Nelson then led the audience through an interactive exercise where they rated different data visualizations. He discussed key factors that affect how audiences consume and engage with data visualizations. Nelson outlined objectives like learning how to critically evaluate visualizations, identify misleading techniques, and understand the competencies important for visual storytelling. He emphasized that effective stories can motivate action by addressing emotions and provided tips for developing compelling data stories based on Pixar's rules of storytelling.
The document discusses key performance indicator (KPI) dashboards and benchmarking for higher education institutions. It outlines the case for good communication of financial and operational data through dashboards to highlight potential problems. It describes effective dashboard principles like understanding context, perceiving and presenting data accurately and linking data to mission and strategy. Benchmarking is presented as a way to maintain viability by comparing performance to peers. Examples of common higher education KPIs and benchmarking groups are provided.
This document provides an introduction to statistics. It discusses descriptive statistics, which summarize and describe data, versus inferential statistics, which make generalizations about a population based on a sample. Descriptive statistics include measures like percentages, averages, and tables to characterize data. Inferential statistics are used to compare treatment groups and determine whether observed differences could occur by chance or are likely due to the treatments. The document provides examples of statistics encountered in various fields and emphasizes the importance of understanding statistics to evaluate claims critically.
Oct 2017 Measurement Hour: Highlights from the Summit on the Future of Measur...Paine Publishing
The document summarizes Katie Paine's presentation on measurement and the future of communications at the Summit on the Future of Communications. The presentation discussed various topics including how to understand an uncertain future through scenarios, dealing with risk and uncertainty, and the importance of understanding risk. It also provided case studies on how Southwest Airlines and Cisco use data and analytics in communications measurement. Key themes from research on measurement standards and examples from Exeter Health Resources were also summarized.
Homework #1SOCY 3115Spring 20Read the Syllabus and FAQ on ho.docxpooleavelina
Homework #1
SOCY 3115
Spring 20
Read the Syllabus and FAQ on how to do your homework before beginning the assignment!
To get consideration for full credit, you must:
· Follow directions;
· Show all work required to arrive at answer (statistical calculations often require multiple steps, so you need to write these down, not just skip to the final answer)
· Use appropriate statistical notation at all times (e.g. if you are calculating a population mean, begin with the equation for population mean)
· Use units in your answer, where appropriate (e.g. a mean time would be “6.5 hours” rather than just “6.5”)
Understanding the Structure of Data
1. For the following rectangular dataset:
Id
Highest degree
Works full-time
Annual income cat
1
Did not grad HS
Yes
Low
2
HS dip
Yes
Low
3
HS dip
No
Med
4
BA
No
Low
5
BA
Yes
Med
6
MA
Yes
High
7
HS dip
Yes
Med
a. What is the unit-of-analysis of the dataset?
b. How many variables are in the dataset?
c. How many observations/cases are in the dataset?
d. For eachvariable that is not named “id”:
i. What is the variable name?
ii. What is the level-of-measurement?
iii. What are the values for the variable?
iv. If you had to make a guess, what do you think the “question” was that was asked of the unit-of-analysis to get these data? (for example, if we had a continuous variable called “num_pets” the question might be “How many pets live in your household?”)
2. For the following rectangular dataset:
Id
num_bdrms
num_bthrms
sqft
Ranch
1
4
3
3200
Yes
2
2
1.5
2800
Yes
3
2
1
1200
Yes
4
3
2
1500
No
5
2
2
1100
No
a. What is the unit-of-analysis of the dataset?
b. How many variables are in the dataset?
c. How many observations/cases are in the dataset?
d. For each variable that is not named “id”:
i. What is the variable name?
ii. What is the level-of-measurement? Before answering, be sure to consult the slide called “Level of measurement – language to use”. Use the formal language!
iii. What are the values for the variable?
iv. If you had to make a guess, what do you think the “question” was that was asked of the unit-of-analysis to get these data? (for example, if we had a continuous variable called “num_pets” the question might be “How many pets live in your household?”)
3. For each of the following questions (1) construct a dataset with one variable and three observations (2) add data that could have theoretically been collected (just make up the actual responses to the question); and (3) indicate the level-of-measurement of the variable. I’ve done two examples for you.
Example#1:
What is your current age? (individual is the unit-of-analysis)
idage
1 25
2 32
3 61
The age variable is continuous/interval ratio.
Example#2:
What is the size of this hospital based on number of beds? (hospital is the unit-of-analysis)? Answers can be small (1-100 beds), medium (101-500 beds), large (501 beds to 1000 beds), extra large (1001+ beds)
idhosp_size
1 med
2 med
3 ext ...
This document discusses how statistics can be misleading and manipulated. It provides examples of selection bias, such as only surveying a non-representative sample. Other ways statistics can be misleading include using biased questions, asking the wrong question, misleading graphs, implying causation from correlation, making results seem more precise than they are, and making up statistics. The document encourages critically analyzing data and graphs by checking for correct information, potential influence attempts, and proper scale usage. It also discusses how to manually manipulate real data and graphs to draw misleading conclusions.
This document provides an overview of a seminar on introducing measurement for improvement. The seminar agenda includes a welcome, introduction to the topic, and contact details. The presentation discusses using measurement to demonstrate whether improvement interventions are effective, provides examples of run charts to track data over time, and addresses challenges in measuring complex topics. Key points are that measurement for improvement can be kept simple, understanding baseline data is important, and capturing data over time can show whether unusual variation indicates an intervention worked. Resources for further information are also listed.
Los niveles relativos de confianza en las instituciones individuales han subido y han caído. Ya desde el 2005, identificamos el crecimiento de la influencia de los pares, con “una persona como yo” estableciéndose como un vocero en el 2006, antes de que Facebook fuera muy conocido.
El año pasado observamos el papel esencial de la confianza en la innovación. Este año observamos algo nuevo: la creciente desigualdad de la confianza.
Martina Pugliese, a data science lead, discusses remaining sane in the age of data. She warns of common traps when analyzing and reporting on data, including confirmation bias, Simpson's paradox, and correlation not implying causation. Pugliese emphasizes inspecting data for biases, looking at sources critically, and questioning interests and motivations behind data reporting. While data can provide insights, true science requires scrutinizing data collection and analysis methods.
Health, Wealth & Happiness - Reflections on Research and the Greater GoodNeil de Reybekill
This document discusses several research studies and their relationship to policymaking in different areas such as education, health, and economics. It finds that research often has an indirect and gradual influence on policy and may help achieve objectives but cannot determine objectives which involve value judgments. Research in areas like education has had mixed impacts, with some studies clearly influencing policy and practice while others had no discernible impact. Research on health programs similarly found common problems across studies but also identified cultural differences that impacted outcomes. The document also describes how the Bank of England uses qualitative research through agencies to supplement quantitative data and models in making monetary policy decisions, with over 12,000 interviews conducted annually to provide a reality check and gauge economic mood.
This document contains an introduction to statistics and questions about key statistical concepts. It covers topics like:
- Measures of central tendency (mean, median, mode) and how they are calculated
- Measures of dispersion (range, mean deviation, quartiles)
- When to use different statistical measures based on the type of data
- Classification of data and different types of classifications
- Tabulation and methods of presenting data visually through graphs, charts and diagrams
The document discusses strategic planning for Cogito Electronics Company. It begins by asking employees for their thoughts on strategic planning and defines key terms. It then lists reasons why strategic planning can fail, such as an unknowable future or narrow thinking. The document contrasts good and bad decision making, noting pitfalls to avoid like failing to consider alternatives. It distinguishes between a company's mission statement, which defines who and what it is, and its strategic plan, which outlines how it will achieve its goals.
The document discusses how to build a great organizational culture. It notes that the nature of work is changing, with more jobs requiring strong social and analytical skills. It explores what behaviors shape culture, such as being ambitious, inspired, and accountable. It suggests that culture can be influenced by focusing on mindsets, feelings and values to change behaviors. Some ways to change the context and influence behaviors are through onboarding processes, strategic hiring, coaching and training, and ensuring a great culture. It advises finding culture champions, piloting initiatives first, and continually measuring and refining efforts to build the desired culture over time.
U.S. hotel performance indicators continued to reach all-time highs in April according to an analysis. RevPAR has now been growing for 62 consecutive months. New York City had the highest occupancy of any U.S. market at 86.9% in April. Supply growth hit a new low of +0.1% for the third straight month while three of the top 10 hottest under construction markets are located in Texas.
1. When studying percentages or averages, consider additional context like sample size, standard deviations, and absolute values to gain a fuller perspective.
2. Events that seem independent can be interconnected, so consider second and third-order effects and unique perspectives from interconnected systems.
3. Progress is not always linear. Don't get discouraged by slow initial stages as building a strong foundation is important. Later stages may also slow down due to overlooked details.
Why is that when we present facts alone, we can get met with resistance? Is there another way to influence? We discuss how storytelling in technical talks, when done right, can make your ideas more memorable and influential.
How Designers Can Make the World a Happier PlaceCentralis
Design is powerful – it can generate excitement, bring joy, provoke anger, or trigger anxiety, sometimes all in the same interaction. From the big decisions about a product’s purpose all the way down to the myriad pixel-level arguments lost and won, designers have a great responsibility to safeguard the happiness of the users we serve. But what do we really know about the nature of happiness? And how can we actually make everyone happy?
In this talk, Kathi Kaiser (Co-Founder & COO, Centralis) deconstructs the concept of “happiness” and offer designers a framework for considering the emotional impact of their work. She explores the meaning, dimensions, and pre-conditions of happiness while examining the wide range of satisfying outcomes and their implications for design. Drawing on recent research in psychology as well as real-world design examples, you’ll learn when and how to evoke joy, humor, reassurance, comfort, and other positive feelings through applying a set of guiding principles for the pursuit of happiness.
- Consumer sentiment surged in December 2016 with 54.5% of Americans confident in the economy, the highest level in over 10 years, as political anxiety eased somewhat.
- While confidence improved, practical purchase intentions and focus on necessities declined from last month, and one in ten plan to increase holiday spending by an average of $103 due to the election outcome.
- Men, higher-income households, and younger consumers under 45 have a more positive post-election holiday spending outlook compared to other groups.
Enlargement refers to changing the size of an object while keeping its shape the same. The object can either increase or decrease in size. The scale factor indicates the amount of enlargement or reduction, with a scale factor less than 1 meaning the image is smaller than the original object, and a scale factor greater than 1 meaning the image is larger. The scale factor represents how many times bigger or smaller the image is compared to the original object.
With less than 3% of young female students identifying a career in technology as their first choice, how are we ever going to achieve a diverse workforce and bridge the gender gap that persists in technology careers? But, don’t panic, this can all still change! Learn how even small events can have a lasting impact in encouraging more females into STEM and technology careers and explore how you can get involved to actively make a difference to the diversity of the tech industry.
The Landscape of Trust Research Partner webinar #1 July 2017 v1Julian Stodd
This is the first of a series of community webinars, sharing initial analysis of the Landscape of Trust research. This will be a regular update around this work.
Greg Nelson presented on best practices for data visualization and storytelling. He began with an introduction that outlined his background and experience in analytics, data science, and data visualization. Nelson then led the audience through an interactive exercise where they rated different data visualizations. He discussed key factors that affect how audiences consume and engage with data visualizations. Nelson outlined objectives like learning how to critically evaluate visualizations, identify misleading techniques, and understand the competencies important for visual storytelling. He emphasized that effective stories can motivate action by addressing emotions and provided tips for developing compelling data stories based on Pixar's rules of storytelling.
The document discusses key performance indicator (KPI) dashboards and benchmarking for higher education institutions. It outlines the case for good communication of financial and operational data through dashboards to highlight potential problems. It describes effective dashboard principles like understanding context, perceiving and presenting data accurately and linking data to mission and strategy. Benchmarking is presented as a way to maintain viability by comparing performance to peers. Examples of common higher education KPIs and benchmarking groups are provided.
This document provides an introduction to statistics. It discusses descriptive statistics, which summarize and describe data, versus inferential statistics, which make generalizations about a population based on a sample. Descriptive statistics include measures like percentages, averages, and tables to characterize data. Inferential statistics are used to compare treatment groups and determine whether observed differences could occur by chance or are likely due to the treatments. The document provides examples of statistics encountered in various fields and emphasizes the importance of understanding statistics to evaluate claims critically.
Oct 2017 Measurement Hour: Highlights from the Summit on the Future of Measur...Paine Publishing
The document summarizes Katie Paine's presentation on measurement and the future of communications at the Summit on the Future of Communications. The presentation discussed various topics including how to understand an uncertain future through scenarios, dealing with risk and uncertainty, and the importance of understanding risk. It also provided case studies on how Southwest Airlines and Cisco use data and analytics in communications measurement. Key themes from research on measurement standards and examples from Exeter Health Resources were also summarized.
Homework #1SOCY 3115Spring 20Read the Syllabus and FAQ on ho.docxpooleavelina
Homework #1
SOCY 3115
Spring 20
Read the Syllabus and FAQ on how to do your homework before beginning the assignment!
To get consideration for full credit, you must:
· Follow directions;
· Show all work required to arrive at answer (statistical calculations often require multiple steps, so you need to write these down, not just skip to the final answer)
· Use appropriate statistical notation at all times (e.g. if you are calculating a population mean, begin with the equation for population mean)
· Use units in your answer, where appropriate (e.g. a mean time would be “6.5 hours” rather than just “6.5”)
Understanding the Structure of Data
1. For the following rectangular dataset:
Id
Highest degree
Works full-time
Annual income cat
1
Did not grad HS
Yes
Low
2
HS dip
Yes
Low
3
HS dip
No
Med
4
BA
No
Low
5
BA
Yes
Med
6
MA
Yes
High
7
HS dip
Yes
Med
a. What is the unit-of-analysis of the dataset?
b. How many variables are in the dataset?
c. How many observations/cases are in the dataset?
d. For eachvariable that is not named “id”:
i. What is the variable name?
ii. What is the level-of-measurement?
iii. What are the values for the variable?
iv. If you had to make a guess, what do you think the “question” was that was asked of the unit-of-analysis to get these data? (for example, if we had a continuous variable called “num_pets” the question might be “How many pets live in your household?”)
2. For the following rectangular dataset:
Id
num_bdrms
num_bthrms
sqft
Ranch
1
4
3
3200
Yes
2
2
1.5
2800
Yes
3
2
1
1200
Yes
4
3
2
1500
No
5
2
2
1100
No
a. What is the unit-of-analysis of the dataset?
b. How many variables are in the dataset?
c. How many observations/cases are in the dataset?
d. For each variable that is not named “id”:
i. What is the variable name?
ii. What is the level-of-measurement? Before answering, be sure to consult the slide called “Level of measurement – language to use”. Use the formal language!
iii. What are the values for the variable?
iv. If you had to make a guess, what do you think the “question” was that was asked of the unit-of-analysis to get these data? (for example, if we had a continuous variable called “num_pets” the question might be “How many pets live in your household?”)
3. For each of the following questions (1) construct a dataset with one variable and three observations (2) add data that could have theoretically been collected (just make up the actual responses to the question); and (3) indicate the level-of-measurement of the variable. I’ve done two examples for you.
Example#1:
What is your current age? (individual is the unit-of-analysis)
idage
1 25
2 32
3 61
The age variable is continuous/interval ratio.
Example#2:
What is the size of this hospital based on number of beds? (hospital is the unit-of-analysis)? Answers can be small (1-100 beds), medium (101-500 beds), large (501 beds to 1000 beds), extra large (1001+ beds)
idhosp_size
1 med
2 med
3 ext ...
This document discusses how statistics can be misleading and manipulated. It provides examples of selection bias, such as only surveying a non-representative sample. Other ways statistics can be misleading include using biased questions, asking the wrong question, misleading graphs, implying causation from correlation, making results seem more precise than they are, and making up statistics. The document encourages critically analyzing data and graphs by checking for correct information, potential influence attempts, and proper scale usage. It also discusses how to manually manipulate real data and graphs to draw misleading conclusions.
This document provides an overview of a seminar on introducing measurement for improvement. The seminar agenda includes a welcome, introduction to the topic, and contact details. The presentation discusses using measurement to demonstrate whether improvement interventions are effective, provides examples of run charts to track data over time, and addresses challenges in measuring complex topics. Key points are that measurement for improvement can be kept simple, understanding baseline data is important, and capturing data over time can show whether unusual variation indicates an intervention worked. Resources for further information are also listed.
Los niveles relativos de confianza en las instituciones individuales han subido y han caído. Ya desde el 2005, identificamos el crecimiento de la influencia de los pares, con “una persona como yo” estableciéndose como un vocero en el 2006, antes de que Facebook fuera muy conocido.
El año pasado observamos el papel esencial de la confianza en la innovación. Este año observamos algo nuevo: la creciente desigualdad de la confianza.
Martina Pugliese, a data science lead, discusses remaining sane in the age of data. She warns of common traps when analyzing and reporting on data, including confirmation bias, Simpson's paradox, and correlation not implying causation. Pugliese emphasizes inspecting data for biases, looking at sources critically, and questioning interests and motivations behind data reporting. While data can provide insights, true science requires scrutinizing data collection and analysis methods.
Health, Wealth & Happiness - Reflections on Research and the Greater GoodNeil de Reybekill
This document discusses several research studies and their relationship to policymaking in different areas such as education, health, and economics. It finds that research often has an indirect and gradual influence on policy and may help achieve objectives but cannot determine objectives which involve value judgments. Research in areas like education has had mixed impacts, with some studies clearly influencing policy and practice while others had no discernible impact. Research on health programs similarly found common problems across studies but also identified cultural differences that impacted outcomes. The document also describes how the Bank of England uses qualitative research through agencies to supplement quantitative data and models in making monetary policy decisions, with over 12,000 interviews conducted annually to provide a reality check and gauge economic mood.
This document contains an introduction to statistics and questions about key statistical concepts. It covers topics like:
- Measures of central tendency (mean, median, mode) and how they are calculated
- Measures of dispersion (range, mean deviation, quartiles)
- When to use different statistical measures based on the type of data
- Classification of data and different types of classifications
- Tabulation and methods of presenting data visually through graphs, charts and diagrams
This document summarizes the results of an Ipsos poll conducted for Reuters between March 26th and April 1st, 2019. It surveyed 3,962 American adults, including breakdowns by political party. Key findings include: 35% said the country is heading in the right direction, while 54% said wrong track; healthcare was cited as the most important problem facing the US at 19%; and 42% approved of Trump's overall job performance, while 53% disapproved. Approval and disapproval ratings are also provided for various issues.
Edelman Trust Barometer Special Flash Poll - Mexico’s Trust ChallengesEdelman
Edelman Trust Barometer Special Flash Poll on Mexico’s Trust Challenges — the U.S. Perspective — conducted in mid-November in the U.S. of 1,000 people in the general population 18 years and older.
The findings provide important context on the bilateral relationship as NAFTA negotiations come to the finish line and Mexico begins its presidential campaign.
Newsletter Winter 2015- Vol 22 No 2 -final revisionAshley Walston
This document provides an overview of recent developments in the ECU Department of Economics from the Chair's perspective. Some key points:
- The Chair, Dr. Richard Ericson, is stepping down after 12 years in the role. A search for a new Chair is underway.
- The Department has grown substantially over Dr. Ericson's tenure, with faculty increasing from 11 to 19 and majors from 110 to 180. Over 1100 alumni have graduated.
- The Department faces budget cuts but remains strong in teaching and research. A new faculty member, Dr. Jacob Hochard, was recently hired.
- 37 students graduated with BA/BS degrees in fall 2014. Guest speaker at the graduation ceremony
Reuters/Ipsos Core Political Survey: Presidential Approval Tracker (03/11/2020)Ipsos Public Affairs
This document provides a 3-sentence summary of an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters between March 9-10, 2020. It summarizes the results of an online poll of 1,113 Americans, including 457 Democratic and 374 Republican registered voters. The document outlines the methodology used in the poll and provides data on topics including views on the direction of the country, the most important problems facing America, approval ratings of President Trump, and political party identification. It also includes an appendix describing how Bayesian credibility intervals are calculated for the poll results.
Data surrounds us. In business and personal life. At work and on the go. But how do we make sense of it, or more specifically, how do we allow others to make sense of it. Learn how to deliver data ... <reports>.
Following a bump in approval last week, President Trump’s job approval has dropped back down to pre-Harvey/Irma levels, now at 35% (down from 40% last week). Trump’s numbers have also dropped across all specific policy areas. Notably, as the Republicans begin to broach tax reform, Trump’s approval on the US economy dropped by 5 points from 47% last week to 42%. Despite the drop, Trump still enjoys higher approval than Congress, which is now at 24%.
Healthcare continues to be top of mind for Americans (17%), distantly followed by the economy (12%) and terrorism (12%). Concern about the environment rose one point from 4% last week to 5% this week.
The document discusses recommendations for how the Catholic Charities of St. Louis can benchmark its refugee resettlement program. It suggests that the Charities collect standardized data across branches and group cities based on economic and population factors to allow for more effective comparisons. A survey found that stakeholders thought the current definition of "self-sufficiency" was inadequate and should be redefined. The recommendations aim to foster discussion, improve understanding of strengths and weaknesses, and enhance refugee outcomes.
Honorhealth Case Study discusses the merger between Scottsdale Healthcare and John C. Lincoln to form HonorHealth. The merger has led to some resistance to change from staff during its first 18 months as one organization. Issues include modified staffing ratios, new and changed policies, and disagreements over who is responsible for changes. HonorHealth needs to ensure employees understand how the changes fit into the organization's future and their role in it. Evaluation is also needed to show changes are more efficient and cost effective.
Presentation at the Royal Statistical Society's International Conference, Newcastle, September 2013.
This infographic presents and inter-relates the key components of the UK's statistical policy landscape. The scope includes key bodies, legislation, policy, guidance, and key contextual factors and influences.
This provides a single strategic visual overview and reference source, illustrating the evolution, relationship and synthesis of those components over the last decade. This also helps to illustrate to a lay audience the extent and development of the background rigour and governance in public data management, use and communication.
Paul Askew
paul.askew@speakingdata.org.uk
The document presents a framework for understanding statistical performance. It outlines operational and strategic drivers for managing statistics about performance. Operationally, performance is important to outcomes like safety and education. Strategically, there is more data and emphasis on using data for decisions. The framework provides a macro level overview of the data, analysis, insight, and product cycle. It also details an analytical level approach involving a snapshot, trend, benchmark, and target analysis to understand a measure over time and versus comparisons. The goal is to extract insight from data to improve performance.
This document outlines an approach to project management that focuses on both effectiveness and visibility. It emphasizes managing projects through established processes and tools to ensure the intended purpose and results are delivered, while also making sure project progress and outcomes are clearly communicated so people understand what is being worked on and accomplished.
The document outlines a framework for developing an effective corporate performance information system including an overall framework, criteria for individual measures, and components for managing performance information. The framework consists of 6 criteria: focused, integrated, balanced, cost effective, appropriate, and robust. Individual measures should be relevant, attributable, well-defined, reliable, comparable, timely, verifiable, and avoid perverse incentives. Key components include aligning measures with strategic objectives, monitoring results, evaluating performance, and comparing performance over time.
This document contains a collection of quotes about statistics from various notable figures throughout history. It explores how statistics can be used to both illuminate and mislead, as well as the importance of statistical thinking. Some quotes praise statistics for allowing social laws to be understood, while others warn against putting too much faith in numbers without considering what is not being said. Overall, the quotes reflect on the power yet limitations of statistical analysis.
The document outlines the data analysis process which includes collecting and recording data, defining requirements and constraints, validating the data, and storing the data. It then discusses deriving insights from the data by looking at trends, benchmarks, and targets. The analysis process involves comparing data across time periods and stakeholders. The outputs of the process are analytical insights and products.
This document outlines a 4 step process: Step 1 involves considering different perspectives on an issue, Step 2 synthesizes information from various sources, Step 3 determines the key messages to convey, Step 4 shares insights with relevant stakeholders.
This document compares smoothed data to real data using different time steps and trends, showing how smoothed data takes fluctuations out of real data by using a rolling average over 12 months. Ten examples are given of different real data patterns and their corresponding smoothed data patterns.
The document outlines a process for analyzing key metrics over time and in comparison to others. It includes taking a snapshot of the current metric, analyzing its trend over time, benchmarking it against peer metrics, and consolidating the assessment by comparing trends and trajectories both over time and to other metrics. Graphs are provided to illustrate trends and trajectories.
The document outlines principles and protocols for official statistics in the UK. It discusses how official statistics should meet user needs, be impartial, maintain integrity, use sound methods, ensure confidentiality, impose proportionate burden, have sufficient resources, and be frank and accessible. It also covers protocols for user engagement, release practices, and using administrative sources for statistics.
Open Source Contributions to Postgres: The Basics POSETTE 2024ElizabethGarrettChri
Postgres is the most advanced open-source database in the world and it's supported by a community, not a single company. So how does this work? How does code actually get into Postgres? I recently had a patch submitted and committed and I want to share what I learned in that process. I’ll give you an overview of Postgres versions and how the underlying project codebase functions. I’ll also show you the process for submitting a patch and getting that tested and committed.
The Ipsos - AI - Monitor 2024 Report.pdfSocial Samosa
According to Ipsos AI Monitor's 2024 report, 65% Indians said that products and services using AI have profoundly changed their daily life in the past 3-5 years.
ViewShift: Hassle-free Dynamic Policy Enforcement for Every Data LakeWalaa Eldin Moustafa
Dynamic policy enforcement is becoming an increasingly important topic in today’s world where data privacy and compliance is a top priority for companies, individuals, and regulators alike. In these slides, we discuss how LinkedIn implements a powerful dynamic policy enforcement engine, called ViewShift, and integrates it within its data lake. We show the query engine architecture and how catalog implementations can automatically route table resolutions to compliance-enforcing SQL views. Such views have a set of very interesting properties: (1) They are auto-generated from declarative data annotations. (2) They respect user-level consent and preferences (3) They are context-aware, encoding a different set of transformations for different use cases (4) They are portable; while the SQL logic is only implemented in one SQL dialect, it is accessible in all engines.
#SQL #Views #Privacy #Compliance #DataLake
Orchestrating the Future: Navigating Today's Data Workflow Challenges with Ai...Kaxil Naik
Navigating today's data landscape isn't just about managing workflows; it's about strategically propelling your business forward. Apache Airflow has stood out as the benchmark in this arena, driving data orchestration forward since its early days. As we dive into the complexities of our current data-rich environment, where the sheer volume of information and its timely, accurate processing are crucial for AI and ML applications, the role of Airflow has never been more critical.
In my journey as the Senior Engineering Director and a pivotal member of Apache Airflow's Project Management Committee (PMC), I've witnessed Airflow transform data handling, making agility and insight the norm in an ever-evolving digital space. At Astronomer, our collaboration with leading AI & ML teams worldwide has not only tested but also proven Airflow's mettle in delivering data reliably and efficiently—data that now powers not just insights but core business functions.
This session is a deep dive into the essence of Airflow's success. We'll trace its evolution from a budding project to the backbone of data orchestration it is today, constantly adapting to meet the next wave of data challenges, including those brought on by Generative AI. It's this forward-thinking adaptability that keeps Airflow at the forefront of innovation, ready for whatever comes next.
The ever-growing demands of AI and ML applications have ushered in an era where sophisticated data management isn't a luxury—it's a necessity. Airflow's innate flexibility and scalability are what makes it indispensable in managing the intricate workflows of today, especially those involving Large Language Models (LLMs).
This talk isn't just a rundown of Airflow's features; it's about harnessing these capabilities to turn your data workflows into a strategic asset. Together, we'll explore how Airflow remains at the cutting edge of data orchestration, ensuring your organization is not just keeping pace but setting the pace in a data-driven future.
Session in https://budapestdata.hu/2024/04/kaxil-naik-astronomer-io/ | https://dataml24.sessionize.com/session/667627
Build applications with generative AI on Google CloudMárton Kodok
We will explore Vertex AI - Model Garden powered experiences, we are going to learn more about the integration of these generative AI APIs. We are going to see in action what the Gemini family of generative models are for developers to build and deploy AI-driven applications. Vertex AI includes a suite of foundation models, these are referred to as the PaLM and Gemini family of generative ai models, and they come in different versions. We are going to cover how to use via API to: - execute prompts in text and chat - cover multimodal use cases with image prompts. - finetune and distill to improve knowledge domains - run function calls with foundation models to optimize them for specific tasks. At the end of the session, developers will understand how to innovate with generative AI and develop apps using the generative ai industry trends.
Beyond the Basics of A/B Tests: Highly Innovative Experimentation Tactics You...Aggregage
This webinar will explore cutting-edge, less familiar but powerful experimentation methodologies which address well-known limitations of standard A/B Testing. Designed for data and product leaders, this session aims to inspire the embrace of innovative approaches and provide insights into the frontiers of experimentation!
"Financial Odyssey: Navigating Past Performance Through Diverse Analytical Lens"sameer shah
Embark on a captivating financial journey with 'Financial Odyssey,' our hackathon project. Delve deep into the past performance of two companies as we employ an array of financial statement analysis techniques. From ratio analysis to trend analysis, uncover insights crucial for informed decision-making in the dynamic world of finance."
1. Five Steps for
Analytical Insight
Paul Askew
CONFERENCE
SEPTEMBER 2014
SHEFFIELD
2. Five Steps for Analytical Insight - Contents
A. Context
B. Five Steps
C. Key Message
3. The only statistics you can trust
are those you falsified yourself.
Winston Churchill
Statistical thinking will one day be as
necessary for efficient citizenship as
the ability to read and write.
HG Wells
You cannot ask us to take sides
against arithmetic.
Winston Churchill
The War Office kept three sets of
figures: one to mislead the public,
another to mislead the Cabinet, and a
third to mislead itself.
Herbert Asquith
It is by the art of Statistics that law in the
social sphere can be ascertained and
codified, and certain aspects of the
character of God thereby revealed. The
study of statistics is thus a religious service.
Florence Nightingale
Smoking is one of the
leading causes of statistics.
Fletcher Knebel
If you want to inspire confidence, give
plenty of statistics. It does not matter that
they should be accurate, or even
intelligible, as long as there is enough of
them. Lewis Carroll
A small error at the outset can lead to
great errors in the final conclusions.
Saint Thomas Aquinas
Facts are stubborn, but
statistics are more pliable.
Mark Twain
Errors using inadequate data are much
less than those using no data at all.
Charles Babbage
4. Skills for Life Survey 2011 (England)
Department for Business Innovation and Skills
% Adults at GCSE+ Levels
The numeracy challenge is big and getting bigger…
7.5m
adults with
GCSE+
17m
adults at
primary school
level Maths
5. A Framework for Understanding
Statistical Performance
Paul Askew
11. ✗ Yes but it’s up
compared the same
month last year
✗ Yes but its up for the
calendar year so far
✗ Yes but they are
reducing faster than we
are this year
Performance Pantomime
✓ Burglary is down compared
to last month
✓ Yes but it’s down overall for the
financial year to date
✓ Yes but we’re still
better than our
neighbours
✓ “Yes but we’re still on target”
12. Five Steps for Analytical Insight - Contents
A. Context
B. Five Steps
C. Key Message
13. B. Five Steps
1. Snapshot
2. Trend
3. Benchmark
4. Trajectory
5. Target
14. 1. Snapshot
5.
Define
6.
Specify
8.
Record
7.
Collect
9.
Enter
10.
Process
12.
Store
11.
Validate
Plan
Implement
Manage
1.
Purpose
2.
Require-ments
4.
Design
3.
Const-raints
15. Aggregated Data
or Real Data
Aggregated Data
This aggregated (averaged)
data is derived from any of
these underlying raw data
examples.
Two month step Three month step Six month step
Increasing Decreasing Increasing convergence
High and low Highs and lows
Decreasing convergence
Smoothed Data – 12 month rolling average
Example Real Data
Notes: Real data for 12 months, previous 12 months is exactly the same, to create 12 month rolling average (mean).
16. 2. Five Steps
1. Snapshot 2. Trend 3. Benchmark 4. Trajectory 5. Target
Purpose Week National Future Estimate
Requirements Month Regional Intervention
Constraints Quarter Neighbours Impact
Design Six Months Similar
Define Annual Specific
Specify FYTD
Collect
Record
Enter
Process
Validate
Storage