Lecture - 4 / Misc Thoughts
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1. When studying percentages or averages, consider additional context like sample size, standard deviations, and absolute values to gain a fuller perspective. 2. Events that seem independent can be interconnected, so consider second and third-order effects and unique perspectives from interconnected systems. 3. Progress is not always linear. Don't get discouraged by slow initial stages as building a strong foundation is important. Later stages may also slow down due to overlooked details.
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This document discusses ten common "dramatic instincts" that can lead people to misinterpret facts and see issues as more dramatic than they really are. These instincts are the gap, negativity, fear, size, destiny, single perspective, blame, and urgency instincts. It provides rules of thumb for controlling each instinct, such as checking for actual gaps and risks rather than assuming them, focusing on gradual changes rather than destinies, considering multiple perspectives rather than single views, and resisting urges to blame or act urgently. The goal is to recognize instincts that distort reality and instead take a fact-based, measured approach to understanding issues and making decisions.
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FREE MANAGEMENT CONSULTING COURSE on www.oeconsulting.be
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How ?
Multiple-criteria decision technique is an evaluation method in order to make rationally a choice between several alternatives on the basis of more than 1 criteria. The steps are :
List of alternatives or choices
List of important criteria required for your decision
Give a score (e.g. on 10) on each criteria for each alternative
Give a % weight to each criteria if one criteria is more important than the other (sum of criteria weight is 100%)
Multiply each score with its weight and sum up to have the total for each alternative
Rank all alternatives from high to low
Tip :
A bad result does not automatically indicate a bad decision, or vice versa (maybe external factors!)
We rely too often on emotions instead of research (but remember plain things, plain decision!)
Having an influence on decision making, don’t be easily convinced for :
Nice plausible stories that are told :
Reject the easy and obvious answers that someone comes up with. Not everything that seems plausible is true. Don’t judge outcomes without looking at underlying forces : sometimes what is presented as the root cause, is actually the consequence and vice versa. E.g. beautiful women advertising for cosmetics
We don’t detect what is absent – we see the success but what about the ‘hidden’ failures? Often success is attributed to ability, while failure is caused by external factors.
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FREE MANAGEMENT CONSULTING COURSE on www.oeconsulting.be
Decision-making
How ?
Multiple-criteria decision technique is an evaluation method in order to make rationally a choice between several alternatives on the basis of more than 1 criteria. The steps are :
List of alternatives or choices
List of important criteria required for your decision
Give a score (e.g. on 10) on each criteria for each alternative
Give a % weight to each criteria if one criteria is more important than the other (sum of criteria weight is 100%)
Multiply each score with its weight and sum up to have the total for each alternative
Rank all alternatives from high to low
Tip :
A bad result does not automatically indicate a bad decision, or vice versa (maybe external factors!)
We rely too often on emotions instead of research (but remember plain things, plain decision!)
Having an influence on decision making, don’t be easily convinced for :
Nice plausible stories that are told :
Reject the easy and obvious answers that someone comes up with. Not everything that seems plausible is true. Don’t judge outcomes without looking at underlying forces : sometimes what is presented as the root cause, is actually the consequence and vice versa. E.g. beautiful women advertising for cosmetics
We don’t detect what is absent – we see the success but what about the ‘hidden’ failures? Often success is attributed to ability, while failure is caused by external factors.
Big contrasts compromises our judgement:
Big contrasts between things can be misleading : We judge something if we have something completely the opposite in front of us. We have difficulty with absolute judgments. We don’t notice small gradual changes.
When a single aspect dazzles us, it affects how we see the whole picture. E.g. a single quality that produces a positive or negative impression and that outshines everything which make the overall effect disproportionate.
We see what we want to see:
People choose numbers for a lottery thinking it makes a difference or people throw dice harder thinking it makes a difference for a high number. We identify or just invent a pattern and ‘believe in it’ without considering it first as pure chance.
We interpret new information so that our prior conclusions remain intact. E.g. reading opinions on the internet, illusion of “no pain no gain” where there is no concrete result,…
Recommended
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This document discusses ten common "dramatic instincts" that can lead people to misinterpret facts and see issues as more dramatic than they really are. These instincts are the gap, negativity, fear, size, destiny, single perspective, blame, and urgency instincts. It provides rules of thumb for controlling each instinct, such as checking for actual gaps and risks rather than assuming them, focusing on gradual changes rather than destinies, considering multiple perspectives rather than single views, and resisting urges to blame or act urgently. The goal is to recognize instincts that distort reality and instead take a fact-based, measured approach to understanding issues and making decisions.
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This document discusses risk analysis and management for systems projects. It defines risks as things that can negatively impact cost, time or effort. The key steps are: 1) Identifying risks through categories like human, technical etc. 2) Assigning probabilities and costs to risks. 3) Prioritizing risks through a risk register and triage. 4) Creating a decision tree to evaluate options. 5) Developing strategies like avoid, transfer or mitigate risks. Effective communication is also important.
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This document discusses managing risk and uncertainty in business. It begins by noting high failure rates of new ventures and the importance of risk management. It then defines key concepts like risk, uncertainty, and the risk management process. This involves identifying risks, analyzing their probability and impact, developing risk response plans, and monitoring risks. Different types of risks are outlined like competitive, economic, operational and strategies discussed to mitigate risks like avoidance, transfer, and acceptance. The document emphasizes that risk management is an ongoing process to minimize threats and uncertainties facing a business.
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FREE MANAGEMENT CONSULTING COURSE on www.oeconsulting.be
Decision-making
How ?
Multiple-criteria decision technique is an evaluation method in order to make rationally a choice between several alternatives on the basis of more than 1 criteria. The steps are :
List of alternatives or choices
List of important criteria required for your decision
Give a score (e.g. on 10) on each criteria for each alternative
Give a % weight to each criteria if one criteria is more important than the other (sum of criteria weight is 100%)
Multiply each score with its weight and sum up to have the total for each alternative
Rank all alternatives from high to low
Tip :
A bad result does not automatically indicate a bad decision, or vice versa (maybe external factors!)
We rely too often on emotions instead of research (but remember plain things, plain decision!)
Having an influence on decision making, don’t be easily convinced for :
Nice plausible stories that are told :
Reject the easy and obvious answers that someone comes up with. Not everything that seems plausible is true. Don’t judge outcomes without looking at underlying forces : sometimes what is presented as the root cause, is actually the consequence and vice versa. E.g. beautiful women advertising for cosmetics
We don’t detect what is absent – we see the success but what about the ‘hidden’ failures? Often success is attributed to ability, while failure is caused by external factors.
Decision-making tips and tricks
FREE MANAGEMENT CONSULTING COURSE on www.oeconsulting.be
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How ?
Multiple-criteria decision technique is an evaluation method in order to make rationally a choice between several alternatives on the basis of more than 1 criteria. The steps are :
List of alternatives or choices
List of important criteria required for your decision
Give a score (e.g. on 10) on each criteria for each alternative
Give a % weight to each criteria if one criteria is more important than the other (sum of criteria weight is 100%)
Multiply each score with its weight and sum up to have the total for each alternative
Rank all alternatives from high to low
Tip :
A bad result does not automatically indicate a bad decision, or vice versa (maybe external factors!)
We rely too often on emotions instead of research (but remember plain things, plain decision!)
Having an influence on decision making, don’t be easily convinced for :
Nice plausible stories that are told :
Reject the easy and obvious answers that someone comes up with. Not everything that seems plausible is true. Don’t judge outcomes without looking at underlying forces : sometimes what is presented as the root cause, is actually the consequence and vice versa. E.g. beautiful women advertising for cosmetics
We don’t detect what is absent – we see the success but what about the ‘hidden’ failures? Often success is attributed to ability, while failure is caused by external factors.
Big contrasts compromises our judgement:
Big contrasts between things can be misleading : We judge something if we have something completely the opposite in front of us. We have difficulty with absolute judgments. We don’t notice small gradual changes.
When a single aspect dazzles us, it affects how we see the whole picture. E.g. a single quality that produces a positive or negative impression and that outshines everything which make the overall effect disproportionate.
We see what we want to see:
People choose numbers for a lottery thinking it makes a difference or people throw dice harder thinking it makes a difference for a high number. We identify or just invent a pattern and ‘believe in it’ without considering it first as pure chance.
We interpret new information so that our prior conclusions remain intact. E.g. reading opinions on the internet, illusion of “no pain no gain” where there is no concrete result,…
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1) Forecasting focuses on what is likely to happen rather than target-setting, and uses a range to capture uncertainty rather than a single number.
2) Considering best- and worst-case scenarios through a range helps have more honest, meaningful discussions about opportunities and risks.
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Risk is defined as the probability of encountering harm or loss. Risk assessment identifies and documents risks to reduce negative impacts. It examines categories like planning, budgets, and legal issues. Risk mitigation seeks to responsibly reduce risk through measures like improved planning, qualifications, and reliability of information. Empirical research supports using risk assessment in high-impact decision making and operational development to improve outcomes.
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The document discusses the process of conducting a risk assessment. It defines risk assessment as identifying potential harms or dangers in the workplace and determining their likelihood and impact. The document outlines a 5-step process for risk assessment: 1) identify hazards, 2) analyze risks, 3) evaluate risks, 4) control risks, and 5) monitor and review risks. It also discusses using a risk matrix to help prioritize risks based on their probability and potential impact. The risk matrix assigns quantitative values to probability and impact to calculate the overall risk rating.
"Quant Trading for a Living – Lessons from a Life in the Trenches" by Andreas...
It takes hard work, skill and time to develop robust trading models, but that is just the beginning of the journey. The question then is what you can do with it, and how to go about building a career in quant finance.
If your plan is to move beyond hobby trading and build a career in in the professional quant trading field, the work is not over once you have a great model.
This presentation will discuss how to leverage your trading models into building a successful career in quant trading. We will look at the various options available, and their respective merits and faults. Whether you want to trade your own money for a living, find a job in the industry or build your own business, your model design will have to be adapted to your aim. We will discuss what type of models and results there is a market for, how to go about finding investors for your trading, and how the real economics of the business look.
Calculation of Estimated Risk for Individual/Family
Risk is an undesirable future event that may or may not occur. There are several types of risks including likely events, events with high impact, events outside of your control, and unknown events. Risk management involves identifying risks, reducing risks, contingency planning, and risk monitoring. Risk exposure is a calculation that assigns a numeric value to risks by multiplying the probability of occurrence by the total loss, allowing risks to be compared. A risk matrix is an alternative tool that can prioritize risks differently than risk exposure calculations. Property damage refers to harm caused to public or private property either by people who are not the owners or by natural phenomena.
Stephen cresswell risk are we missing a trick - 25th june
Stephen Cresswell presentation for APM Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire branch, 25 June 2019, Sheffield
T4 risk taking & resourcing skills-2013
The document discusses various topics related to risk-taking and resourcing skills among entrepreneurs. It provides quotes from entrepreneurs about their characteristics and behaviors, such as being independent, persistent, and good listeners. It also discusses concepts like risk versus uncertainty, different types of risks entrepreneurs face, and approaches to risk management. Additionally, it covers types of resources entrepreneurs need, such as financial, technological and human resources, as well as factors to consider in resource management.
FINAL-CF-PPT-LAS-VEGAS.pptx
The document discusses how incompetent people often do not realize their own incompetence. It explains that the skills needed to be competent are often the same skills needed to recognize one's own competence. As a result, incompetent people suffer doubly by making mistakes and poor choices while being unable to recognize their own incompetence. The document urges readers to accept a new reality about their business that considers known and unknown factors, theoretical and real implications, and lessons that can be applied to optimize their business.
Micromanager
The document discusses micromanagement in the workplace and provides perspectives on when and why it occurs. It notes that micromanagement is often due to a lack of trust in employees' abilities and competence, as well as fears about risk and negative outcomes. While micromanagement may be appropriate in some situations like troubled projects, it generally stems from inability to delegate and leverage others' skills. The document offers advice for dealing with micromanagement such as setting priorities, building on strengths, and focusing on results rather than process or efficiency. It acknowledges micromanagement may be difficult to change and suggests gaining confidence elsewhere or finding a new job if possible.
Making Decisions Presentation
This document discusses different approaches to decision making including certainty, uncertainty, and risk. It begins with an outline of the chapter which describes how managers need structure to make decisions in complex conditions. It then covers decision making with certainty, uncertainty using criteria like Laplace, Wald, and Savage, risk using expected values, and sequential decisions using decision trees. Limitations of the criteria are noted.
Risk & Risk Management Ideas, Thoughts & Perspectives for new CEOs CIOs CTOs...
This document provides an overview of risk and risk management for new CEOs, CIOs, and managers. It discusses business and profit, defines key risk management terms, and outlines categories of risk like people, process, technology, and environment. The document also covers risk formulas, areas of focus for risk like security, data, infrastructure, and personnel. It concludes by noting the importance of an organization-wide effort to identify risks through stakeholder input in order to effectively manage risk.
Aliado risk management presentation v3a
The document discusses challenges with traditional risk analysis and risk management methods that rely heavily on subjective human judgment. It argues that current popular methods often do not improve forecasts and decisions when objectively measured, and can even add more errors compared to relying solely on expert intuition. The document advocates applying statistical techniques like calibrated expert elicitation, quantitative modeling, and computing the expected value of information to help identify what risk factors and measures matter most and should be prioritized for measurement in order to meaningfully reduce uncertainty and improve risk-related decisions.
Perfect Reliability
Is it possible to foresee all reliability issues before product launch?
No.
I don’t think so. Can we minimize surprises from field failures?
Yes.
The number of potential failures is often unknown.
With a little experience and imagination, we can list potential failures including those
*We imagine as possible when making design decisions
*We experience with the first prototypes
*We imagine our customer will experience
*We discover with product testing
*We hear about from our customers
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Risk Assessment and Risk Assessment Matrix Presentation
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University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
办理美国UNCC毕业证书制作北卡大学夏洛特分校假文凭定制Q微168899991做UNCC留信网教留服认证海牙认证改UNCC成绩单GPA做UNCC假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
在线办理(GU毕业证书)美国贡萨加大学毕业证学历证书一模一样
学校原件一模一样【微信：741003700 】《(GU毕业证书)美国贡萨加大学毕业证学历证书》【微信：741003700 】学位证，留信认证（真实可查，永久存档）原件一模一样纸张工艺/offer、雅思、外壳等材料/诚信可靠,可直接看成品样本，帮您解决无法毕业带来的各种难题！外壳，原版制作，诚信可靠，可直接看成品样本。行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备。十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，包您满意。
本公司拥有海外各大学样板无数，能完美还原。
1:1完美还原海外各大学毕业材料上的工艺：水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠。文字图案浮雕、激光镭射、紫外荧光、温感、复印防伪等防伪工艺。材料咨询办理、认证咨询办理请加学历顾问Q/微741003700
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三.真实教育部学历学位认证（教育部存档！教育部留服网站永久可查）
四.办理各国各大学文凭(一对一专业服务,可全程监控跟踪进度)
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留信网认证的作用:
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4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
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Using Online job postings and survey data to understand labour market trends
Using Online job postings and survey data to understand labour market trendsLabour Market Information Council | Conseil de l’information sur le marché du travail
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
How Non-Banking Financial Companies Empower Startups With Venture Debt Financing
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1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdf
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
快速办理(SMU毕业证书)南卫理公会大学毕业证毕业完成信一模一样
学校原件一模一样【微信：741003700 】《(SMU毕业证书)南卫理公会大学毕业证》【微信：741003700 】学位证，留信认证（真实可查，永久存档）原件一模一样纸张工艺/offer、雅思、外壳等材料/诚信可靠,可直接看成品样本，帮您解决无法毕业带来的各种难题！外壳，原版制作，诚信可靠，可直接看成品样本。行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备。十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，包您满意。
本公司拥有海外各大学样板无数，能完美还原。
1:1完美还原海外各大学毕业材料上的工艺：水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠。文字图案浮雕、激光镭射、紫外荧光、温感、复印防伪等防伪工艺。材料咨询办理、认证咨询办理请加学历顾问Q/微741003700
【主营项目】
一.毕业证【q微741003700】成绩单、使馆认证、教育部认证、雅思托福成绩单、学生卡等！
二.真实使馆公证(即留学回国人员证明,不成功不收费)
三.真实教育部学历学位认证（教育部存档！教育部留服网站永久可查）
四.办理各国各大学文凭(一对一专业服务,可全程监控跟踪进度)
如果您处于以下几种情况：
◇在校期间，因各种原因未能顺利毕业……拿不到官方毕业证【q/微741003700】
◇面对父母的压力，希望尽快拿到；
◇不清楚认证流程以及材料该如何准备；
◇回国时间很长，忘记办理；
◇回国马上就要找工作，办给用人单位看；
◇企事业单位必须要求办理的
◇需要报考公务员、购买免税车、落转户口
◇申请留学生创业基金
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
一比一原版(RMIT毕业证)皇家墨尔本理工大学毕业证如何办理
RMIT硕士学位证成绩单【微信95270640】《皇家墨尔本理工大学毕业证书》《QQ微信95270640》学位证书电子版：在线制作皇家墨尔本理工大学毕业证成绩单GPA修改（制作RMIT毕业证成绩单RMIT文凭证书样本）、皇家墨尔本理工大学毕业证书与成绩单样本图片、《RMIT学历证书学位证书》、皇家墨尔本理工大学毕业证案例毕业证书制作軟體、在线制作加拿大硕士学历证书真实可查.
【本科硕士】皇家墨尔本理工大学皇家墨尔本理工大学本科学位证成绩单（GPA修改）；学历认证（教育部认证）；大学Offer录取通知书留信认证使馆认证；雅思语言证书等高仿类证书。
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2开始安排制作毕业证成绩单电子图；
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4毕业证成绩单电子版您确认信息无误之后安排制作成品；
5成品做好拍照或者视频给您确认；
6快递给客户（国内顺丰国外DHLUPS等快读邮寄）
真实网上可查的证明材料
1教育部学历学位认证留服官网真实存档可查永久存档。
2留学回国人员证明（使馆认证）使馆网站真实存档可查。
我们对海外大学及学院的毕业证成绩单所使用的材料尺寸大小防伪结构（包括：皇家墨尔本理工大学皇家墨尔本理工大学本科学位证成绩单隐形水印阴影底纹钢印LOGO烫金烫银LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠。文字图案浮雕激光镭射紫外荧光温感复印防伪）都有原版本文凭对照。质量得到了广大海外客户群体的认可同时和海外学校留学中介做到与时俱进及时掌握各大院校的（毕业证成绩单资格证结业证录取通知书在读证明等相关材料）的版本更新信息能够在第一时间掌握最新的海外学历文凭的样版尺寸大小纸张材质防伪技术等等并在第一时间收集到原版实物以求达到客户的需求。
本公司还可以按照客户原版印刷制作且能够达到客户理想的要求。有需要办理证件的客户请联系我们在线客服中心微信：95270640 或咨询在线父亲的家很狭小除了一张单人床和一张小方桌几乎没有多余的空间山娃一下子就联想起学校的男小便处山娃很想笑却怎么也笑不出来山娃很迷惑父亲的家除了一扇小铁门连窗户也没有墓穴一般阴森森有些骇人父亲的城也便成了山娃的城父亲的家也便成了山娃的家父亲让山娃呆在屋里做作业看电视最多只能在门口透透气不能跟陌生人搭腔更不能乱跑一怕迷路二怕拐子拐人山娃很惊惧去年村里的田鸡就因为跟父亲进城一不小心被人拐跑了至今不见踪影害不
Tdasx: Unveiling the Trillion-Dollar Potential of Bitcoin DeFi
Tdasx: Unveiling the Trillion-Dollar Potential of Bitcoin DeFi
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdf
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-strategic-approach-to-optimize-investments
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
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Earn a passive income with prosocial investing
Invest in prosocial funds that earn you an income while improving the world
The Impact of GST Payments on Loan Approvals
Understanding how timely GST payments influence a lender's decision to approve loans, this topic explores the correlation between GST compliance and creditworthiness. It highlights how consistent GST payments can enhance a business's financial credibility, potentially leading to higher chances of loan approval.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024)
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
Who Is the Largest Producer of Soybean in India Now.pdf
This blog explores the current largest producer of soybean in India and the factors contributing to their dominance.
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Lecture - 4 / Misc Thoughts
- 2. When studying ‘averages’ - ask for sample size - ask for standard deviation - to build a better perspective. Averages
- 3. When you study percentage based metrics like market shares - add the lens of zoom-in and zoom-out - Eg.Crowded vs Unobvious markets - Understand the absolute values when percentage is given as description. Percentages
- 4. Use correlation along with Probability: When you correlate - try to assign a probability to the correlation.
- 5. Access the probability of independent events then try to estimate the outcome - this can be applied to both sales funnels as well as networked outcomes. “Probability” of mutually independent events.
- 6. Everything is interconnected - a lot of opportunity is in the Inter-connectedness. Embrace the interconnectedness of systems - second and third order effects create possibilities that create unique perspectives that happen because of such interconnectedness.
- 7. Linearity Intuition can be lenier - train your intuition to think exponentially. Beware of linearity - most probably there is no such thing!
- 8. Progress is not linear - don’t get disappointed when things are slow in the initial stages, as you are trying to get many things about your foundation right. Sometimes things will happen quickly in the beginning - don’t be surprised if things slow down later - It's often because of the details - we fail to see the details which become important later in the process. Progress also is not linear
- 9. What is the risk? Risk is minimising downside and maximising the mean geometric outcome. We basically can’t predict outcomes. So the best we can do is to maximise the geometric mean value of possible outcomes while minimising the variability of outcomes.
- 10. Risk shouldn’t be only understood in-terms of (“loss” vs “reward”) - It's much more than that. Risk
- 11. Tail Risk is a chance of loss occurring due to a rare event (Known/Unknown) - be prepared to handle tail risks - sudden things happen and you have to be ready to face them. Tail Risk
- 12. Risk management is all about thinking of downside and stopping those downsides from happening as the outcomes are path dependent and let the compounding happen only when there is no interruption Plan to never stop compounding something of value
- 13. Avoid ruin (Kelly's criterion) Don’t bet everything on one big gamble. Be careful how much you bet each time so you stay out of ruin.
- 14. Thanks! Do you have any questions? sandeep@foodstreet.in