The document discusses pathogen management and modelling. It summarizes that the Fish Health Inspectorate monitors disease emergence through field inspections and risk assessments. Pathogen testing is conducted at reference laboratories for various diseases. Field studies assess pathogen distribution, life-cycles, and risk factors through epidemiological studies. Disease modelling and experimental studies inform optimal control policies.

1. Pathogen management
and modelling
Nick Taylor
Population
Ecologist/Epidemiological
Modeller

2. Disease monitoring and emergence
• Fish Health Inspectorate:
– 10 field inspectors
– Visit 700+ APB’s per annum
– Early identification of
problems
– Big picture perspective
• Epidemiology and risk
assessment:
– ID potential threats
– Assess the risk posed
– Suggest mitigation measures

3. Emerging diseases

4. Pathogen testing
• Reference lab (EU, national, OIE) for:
– Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia
– Infectious haematpoietic necrosis
– Bacterial kidney disease
– Gyrodactylus salaris
– Spring viraemia of carp
– Marteiliosis
– Bonamiasis
– Infectious pancreatic necrosis
– Crayfish plague.
• Pathogen culture, PCR, antigen ELISA
and antibody testing.

5. Field studies
• Assess distribution and
scale.
• Study pathogen life-cycles
and dynamics in the real
world.
• Conduct classical
epidemiological studies:
 Cross-sectional
 Cohort
 Case-control
• Identify risk factors.

6. Complex data and statistical tools

7. Pathogen life-cycles
1 2 3 4 5 6
4.7
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.2
Length (mm)
2.9
2.6 7
2.3
2
1.7
1.4
8
1.1
0.8
May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03

8. Experimental studies

9. Pathogen challenge studies

10. Efficacy against pathogen
600
c1
550
c2
500 c3
t1
450 t2
t3
400
350
Abundance
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

11. Benefit to host

12. Environmental impact

13. Disease modelling

14. Optimal application and control
policies
10°C 15°C 20°C 25°C
pH 6.1 1 1 1 1
pH 6.4 1 1 1 2
pH 6.7 1 1 2 2
pH 7.0 1 2 2 3
pH 7.3 1 1 2 2
pH 7.6 1 1 1 2
pH 7.9 1 1 1 1

15. Summary
• What’s the problems.
• Extent and severity.
• How to test for it.
• What drives it.
• What’s its life-cycle.
• Effective treatments.
• How to manage.